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Ciro Martnez Bencardino Ecoe Ediciones
Actualizado en diciembre de 2007
6
Distribuciones de probabilidad
Distribucin binomial de Poisson Hipergeomtrica y normal
EJERCICIOS RESUELTOS
Se presenta el desarrollo de los 210 ejercicios que tiene este captulo
1. Solucin:
2
P( x = 2 ) = C 24 1 1
2 2
4 2
= 6 = 0,375 = 37,5%
16
n=4
p =1 2
q =1 2
X =2
P( x = 2 ) = 37,5%
n=4
p =1 2
q =1 2
X =3
P( x =3 ) = 25,0%
2. Solucin:
3
P( x =3 ) = C 34 1 1
2 2
4! 1 1
1 4
= 4 =
P( x =3 ) =
= 0,25 = 25%
16 16
3! 1! 2 2
(exactamente 3 caras)
3. Solucin:
2
2
P( x = 2 ) = C 24 1 5 = 4!
6
6
2
!
2
!
1
36
25
36
150
4 3 25
25
P( x = 2 ) =
= 0,1157 = 11,57%
=6
=
2 1.296
1.296 1.296
n=4
p =1 6
q=5 6
X =2
P( x = 2 ) = 11,57%
4. Solucin:
P = 0,8 ( ganar )
a) n = 8
P( x = 2 ) =
( ) (0,8) (0,2)
P( x = 2 ) = ?
=2
= 0,001146 = 0,1146 %
P = 0,2 ( perder )
b) n = 8
P( x = 2 ) =
8
2
q = 0,2
P( x = 2 ) = 0,1146%
q = 0,8
P( x = 2 ) = ?
=2
8
2
c) n = 8
P( x = 2 ) = 29,36%
P = 0,2 ( perder )
q = 0,8
P( x 2 ) = ?
x = mnimo ( 2) dos = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, y 8
[( ) (0,2)
8
0
P( x 2 ) = 49,67%
P = 0,8 ( ganar )
d) n = 8
q = 0,2
= 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, y 6
[ ( ) (0,8)
8
7
e) n = 8
P( x=6 ) =
( ) (0,2)
8
6
P( x 6 ) = ?
(0,8)2
q = 0,8
P( x 6 ) = 49,67%
=6
P( x = 6 )
= 0,001147 = 0,1147 %
n =8
P( x = 2 ) =
( ) (0,8) (0,2)
2
8
2
q = 0,2
=2
P( x = 2 )
= 0,001147 = 0,1147%
P( x = 2 ) = 0,1147%
5. Solucin:
p = 1 = 0,5
2
P = C xn p x q n x
a) P( x = 4 ) = C46 1 1 = 6!
2! 4!
2 2
P( x = 4 ) =
q = 1 = 0,5
2
n=6
1 1
16 4
65 1
1 15
= 0,2344 = 23,44%
= 15 =
2 64
64 64
P( x = 4 ) = 23,44%
(exactamente 4 caras)
P( x 4 ) = 1(1) 1 + 6 1 1 + 15 1 1 + 20 1 1 + 15 1 1
64
2 32
4 16
8 8
16 4
P( x 4 ) =
1
6
15 20 15 57
+
+
+
+
=
= 0,8906 = 89,06%
64 64 64 64 64 64
P( x 4 ) = 89,06%
P( x 4 ) =1 C56
5
1
6
0
1 1 + C6 1 1
6
2 2
2 2
57
1 6 64 7
P( x 4 ) =1 + =
=
= 0,8906 = 89,06%
64
64
64
64
64
P( x 4 ) = 89,06%
(mximo 4 caras)
6. Solucin:
Aparicin de un cinco, la probabilidad es 1/6; Aparicin de un seis, la probabilidad es 1/6
p = 1 + 1 = 2 =1
6 6 6 3
q = 1 p = 3 1 = 2
3 3 3
4
3
7! 1 8
8 = 280 = 0,1280 = 12,80%
a) P(x =4) = 7 1 2 =
= 35
3 3
4 ! 3! 81 27
2.187
2.187
P( x = 4 ) = 12,80%
(cuatro xitos)
0
P( x 4 ) = 1(1) 128 + 7 1 64 + 21 1 32 + 35 1 16 + 35 1 8
2.187
3 729
9 243
27 81
81 27
P( x 4 ) = 128 + 448 + 672 + 560 + 280 = 2.088 =
2.187 2.187 2.187 2.187 2.187 2.187
= 0,9547 = 95,47%
(mximo 4 xitos)
P( x 4 ) = 95,47%
7 1 5 2 2 7 1 6 2 1 7 1 7 2 0
= 1 + +
6 3 3 7 3 3
5 3 3
P( x 4 ) = 1 21 1 4 + 7 1 2 + 1 1 (1)
729 3
2.187
243 9
P( x 4 ) = 1 84 + 14 + 1 = 1 99 = 1 0,0453
2.187 2.187 2.187
2.187
= 0,9547 = 95,47%
P( x 4 ) = 95,47%
7. Solucin:
n=4
p = 0,10
q = 0,90
P(x = 2) = 4,86%
P( x 2 ) = 99,36%
8. Solucin:
a)
p = 0,40
q = 0,60
n =5
=2
P( x = 2 ) = 34,56%
5!
(1) (0,07776) + 15!4!! (0,4) (0,1296)
0 ! 5!
= 0,3369 = 33,69%
P( x1) = 33,69%
(menos de 2 golpes)
9. Solucin:
n =8
p = 0,5
q = 0,5
= 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
P( x 5 ) = C08 (0,5) (0,5) + C18 (0,5) (0,5) + C28 (0,5) (0,5) + C38 (0,5) (0,5)
0
P( x 5 ) = 85,54%
P( x 5 ) = 85,54%
(menos de 6 caras)
10. Solucin:
p = 0,05
q = 0,95
P( x 2 ) = C 06 (0,05)
(0,95)6
n =6
= 0, 1, 2,
(0,95)4
P( x 2 ) = 99,78%
11. Solucin:
p = 0,10
q = 0,90
n =5
=0
a) P( x=0 ) = C 05 (0,1)0 (0,9)5 = C55 (0,9 )5 (0,1)0 =1 (1) (0,5905) = 0,5905 = 59,05% P( x =0 ) = 59,05%
b) P( x3) = C 35 (0,1)3 (0,9)2 + C 45 (0,1)4 (0,9)1 + C55 (0,1)5 (0,9)0
= 0,00810 + 0,00045 + 0,00001 = 0,00856
P( x 3 ) = 0,856%
P( x = 3 ) = 0,81%
(exactamente 3 mueran)
12. Solucin:
p = 0,2
q = 0,8
n =4
P( x =1) = 40,96%
P( x = 0 ) = 40,96%
P( x 2 ) = 97,28%
13. Solucin:
p = 0,4
q = 0,6
n =5
P( x = 0 ) = 7,78%
P( x =1) = 25,92%
P( x 1) = 99,22%
14. Solucin:
p =1 6
n =5
q =5 6
1 5
6 6
1 625 3.125
= 0,4019 = 40,19%
=
6 1.296 7.776
P( x =1) = 40,19%
1.250
b) P( x = 2 ) = C25 1 5 = 10 1 125 =
= 0,1608 = 16,08%
6
6
36 216
7.776
P(x = 2) = 16,08%
a) P( x=1) = C15 = 5
250
c) P( x = 3) = C35 1 5 = 10 1 25 =
= 0,0321 = 3,21%
6 6
216 36 7.776
25
d) P( x = 4 ) = C45 1 5 = 5 1 5 =
= 0,0032 = 0,32%
6
6
1
.
296
6
7
.
776
P( x = 3) = 3,21%
P( x = 4 ) = 0,32%
P( x = 0 ) = 40,19%
15. Solucin:
p = 0,10
q = 0,90
n =4
P( x =0 ) = 65,61%
P( x 1) = 34,39%
P( x 1) = 94,77%
16. Solucin:
p = 0,2
q = 0,8
n =10
P( x = 2 ) = 30,2%
10
P( x 3) = 32,22%
c) P( x 6 ) = C610 (0,2)6 (0,8)4 + C710 (0,2 )7 (0,8)3 + C810 (0,2)8 (0,8)2 + C910 (0,2)9 (0,8)1 + C1010 (0,2)10 (0,8)0
= 0,0055 + 0,0008 + 0,0000 + 0,0000 = 0,0063
P( x 6 ) = 0,63%
P( x = 0 ) = 10,74%
17. Solucin:
p = 0,5
q = 0,5
n =10
= 3, 2, 1, 0
P( x 3) = C310 (0,5) (0,5) + C210 (0,5) (0,5) + C110 (0,5) (0,5) + C010 (0,5) (0,5)
3
10
P( x 3 ) = 17,19%
E = np
18. Solucin:
p = 0,5
q = 0,5
n =10
X = 7, 8, 9 y 10
P( x7 ) = C 710 (0,5) (0,5) + C810 (0,5) (0,5) 2 + C910 (0,5) (0,5) + C1010 (0,5)10 (0,5) 0
7
P( x 7 ) = 17,19%
19. Solucin:
n =15
p = 0,10
q = 0,90
15
(0,1)10 (0,9)5 + C1115 (0,1)11 (0,9)4 + C1215 (0,1)12 (0,9)3 +
b) P( x 10 ) = C10
15
C13
(0,1)
13
(0,9)2
15
+ C14
(0,1)
14
P( x 10 ) = 0
(Como se trabaja con cuatro decimales, aproximamos a cero) (Se utiliz la tabla)
A partir de x > 8 la probabilidad obtenida es demasiado pequea, casi cero.
12
11
P(x 5) = 1,27%
20. Solucin:
n = 20
p = 0,25
q = 0,75
(ver tabla)
P( x =15 ) = 0
b) P( x 4 ) = C020 (0,25)0 (0,75)20 + C120 (0,25)1 (0,75)19 + ........... C420 (0,25)4 (0,75)16
= 0,0032 + 0,0211 + 0,0669 + 0,1339 + 0,1897 = 0,4148 = 41,48%
P( x 4 ) = 41,48%
20
c) P( x 8 ) = C820 (0,25)8 (0,75)12 + C920 (0,25)9 (0,75)11 + ........... C20
(0,25)20 (0,75)0
10
20
19
13
= 1 0,8981 = 10,19%
P( x 8 ) = 10,19%
21. Solucin:
p = 0,5
n=4
q = 0,5
P( x 1) = 93,75%
P( x = 2 ) = 37,50%
P( x = 0 ) = 6,25%
22. Solucin:
P( x 2 ) = C015 (0,05) (0,95) + C115 (0,05) (0,95) + C215 (0,05) (0,95)
0
15
14
13
P( x 2 ) = 96,39%
23. Solucin:
11
p = 0,40
n = 20
12
P( x 11) = 12,76%
(mitad ms uno)
24. Solucin:
p = 0,20
n = 18
q = 0,80
=8
P( x = 8 ) = 1,20%
10
25. Solucin:
P(5 x 7 ) = C510 (0,5) (0,5) + C610 (0,5) (0,5) + C710 (0,5) (0,5)
5
P(5 x 7 ) = 56,84%
26. Solucin:
n=5
P( x 3)
= 3, 4, 5
p = 0,5
q = 0,5
12
P( x 3) = P( x = 3) + P( x = 4 ) + P( x = 5 )
=
( ) (0,5)
5
3
(0,5)2
( ) (0,5)
5
4
(0,5)1
( ) (0,5)
5
5
(0,5)0
P( x 3) = 50%
27. Solucin:
9 = 0,90 con caries
10
n=5
n =5
P( x = 4 ) =
( ) (0,9) (0,1)
4
5
4
p = 0,90
=4
= 0,32805 = 32,81%
p = 0,90
P( x = 4 ) = 32,81%
= 2, 3, 4, 5
P( x 2 ) = P( x = 2 ) + P( x = 3) + P( x = 4 ) + P( x = 5 )
= 1 P( x =0 ) + P( x =1)
=1
[( ) (0,9)
5
0
p = 0,10
P( x 2 ) = 99,95%
= 2, 3, 4, 5
P( x 2 ) = P( x = 2 ) + P( x = 3) + P( x = 4 ) + P( x = 5 )
= 1 P( x =0 ) + P( x =1)
=1
[( ) (0,1)
5
0
(0,9)5
( ) (0,1)
5
1
(0,9)4 ]
P( x 2 ) = 8,15%
13
p = 0,90
= 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
P( x 1) = 1 P( x = 0 )
=1
( ) (0,9)
5
0
P( x 1) = 100%
28. Solucin:
20% pierden el 1 ao
80% no lo pierden
a) Mximo 2 aprueben :
n=6
p = 0,80
= 0 , 1, 2
P( x 2 ) = P( x = 0 ) + P( x =1) + P( x = 2 )
P( x 2 ) =
( ) (0,8)
(0,2)6
6
0
( ) (0,8)
6
1
(0,2)5
( ) (0,8)
6
2
(0,2)4
b) Todos aprueben:
P( x =6 ) =
( ) (0,8)
6
6
( ) (0,8)
6
0
=6
c) Ninguno apruebe
P( x = 0 ) =
P( x 2 ) = 1,70%
p = 0,80
P( x = 6 ) = 26,21%
X
=0
P( x =0 ) = 0,0064 %
29. Solucin:
4.800 = 0,70 Transporte pblico
6.000
= 0, 1, 2
n=8
14
P( x 2 ) =
( ) (0,7)
8
0
( ) (0,7)
8
2
(0,3)6
p = 0, 30
P( x 2 ) = 1,13%
= 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
P( x 3) = P( x = 3) + P( x = 4 ) + P( x = 5 ) + P( x = 6 ) + P( x = 7 ) + P( x = 8 )
= 1 P( x =0 ) + P( x =1) + P( x = 2 )
=1
[( ) (0,3)
8
0
c) Exactamente 2 no lo utilicen
P( x = 2 ) =
( ) (0,3)
8
2
( ) (0,7)
8
2
=2
d) Exactamente 2 lo utilicen
P( x = 2 ) =
p = 0, 30
P( x 3) = 44,82%
(0,3)6
P( x = 2 ) = 29,65%
=2
= 0,0100 = 1%
P( x = 2 ) = 1%
30. Solucin:
60% = 0,60 asisten
p = 0, 6
n=8
X
= 7, 8
15
P( x7 ) = P( x =7 ) + P( x =8 )
=
( ) (0,6)
8
7
P( x 7 ) = 10,64%
p = 0, 40
= 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
P( x 2 ) = P( x = 2 ) + P( x = 3 ) + .................... + P( x =8 )
= 1 P( x = 0 ) + P( x =1)
=1
[( ) (0,4)
8
0
P( x 2 ) = 89,36%
31. Solucin:
800 = 0,4 usan gafas
2000
p = 0,40
n =5
X
= 2, 3, 4, 5
P( x 2 ) = P( x = 2 ) + P( x = 3) + P( x = 4 ) + P( x = 5 )
= 1 P( x = 0 ) + P( x =1)
=1
[( ) (0,4)
5
0
p = 0,60
P( x 2 ) = 66,30%
= 2, 3, 4, 5
16
P( x 2 ) = 1 P( x =0 ) + P( x =1)
=1
[( ) (0,6)
5
0
c) E = np
32. Solucin:
n=4
0,67 = no repitentes
p = 0,33
= 0, 1, 2
P( x 2 ) = P( x =0 ) + P( x =1) + P( x = 2 )
=
( ) (0,33)
(0,67 )4
4
0
( ) (0,33)
4
1
(0,67)3
( ) (0,33)
4
2
(0,67)2
p = 0,67
= 1, 2, 3, 4
P( x 1) = P( x =1) + P( x = 2 ) + P( x = 3) + P( x = 4 )
Nota : S trabajamos con 1 3 y 2 3
P( x 1) = 98,77%
P( x 1) = 1 P( x = 0 )
=1
( ) (0,67)
4
0
(0,33)4
P( x 1) = 98,81%
33. Solucin:
17
n = 16
p = 0,6
P( x10 ) =
( ) (0,6) (0,4)
10
16
10
14
( ) (0,6) (0,4)
16
14
11
16
11
12
16
12
16
15
16
16
16
( ) (0,6) (0,4)
16
13
13
P( x 10 ) = 52,71%
34. Solucin:
25% se accidentan
75% no se accidentan
n=7
P( x 3) = P( x = 3) + P( x = 4 ) + P( x = 5 ) + P( x = 6 ) + P( x = 7 )
=1 P( x =0 ) + P( x =1) + P( x = 2 )
=1
[( ) (0,25)
7
0
(0,75)7
( ) (0,25)
7
1
P( x 3 ) = 24,35%
35. Solucin:
3% son defectuosos
97% Buenos
n=7
= 1 P( x =0 ) + P( x =1) + P( x = 2 )
=1
[( ) (0,97)
7
0
(0,03)7
( ) (0,97)
7
1
(0,03)6
( ) (0,97)
7
2
(0,03)5 ]
18
= 1 [0 + 0 + 0] = se aproxima a 1 = 100%
P( x 3 ) = 100%
P( x 3) = 1 P( x =0 ) + P( x =1) + P( x = 2 )
=1
[( ) (0,03)
7
0
36. Solucin:
p = 0,01 = enferman
a)
n=5
q = 0,99 = no enferman
= 2 enfermos
P( x = 2 ) =
( ) (0,01)
5
2
( ) (0,01)
5
0
P( x 2 ) = 1 P( x =0 ) + P( x =1)
=1
[( ) (0,99)
5
0
X
0
= 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
(0,99)5
P( x = 2 ) = 0,097%
P( x 1) = 4,9%
= 2 , 3, 4 , 5
= 1 [0 + 0] = se aproxima a 1 = 100%
P( x 2 ) = 100%
37. Solucin:
19
20% de mortalidad
80% de sobrevivir
a) Ninguno sobreviva
P( x = 0 ) =
( ) (0,8)
5
0
=0
n=5
= 0,00032 = 0,032%
P( x = 0 ) = 0,032%
b) Todos sobrevivan
P( x = 5 ) =
( ) (0,8)
5
5
(0,2)0
= 0,3277 = 32,77%
c) Al menos 1 sobrevivan
P( x 1) = 1 P( x = 0 ) = 1
( ) (0,8)
5
0
( ) (0,2)
5
0
= 1, 2, 3, 4 , 5
d) Al menos 1 no sobrevivan
P( x 1) = 1 P( x = 0 ) = 1
P( x = 5 ) = 32,77%
P( x 1) = 99,97%
= 1, 2, 3, 4 , 5
P( x 1) = 67,23%
38. Solucin:
5 = 0,20 = 20% cientficos
25
20 = 80% no cientfico
25
( ) (0,2)
4
0
(0,8)4
n=4
= 1, 2, 3, 4
P( x 1) = 59,04%
20