Mxico, PBI 2015

por Eduardo Petazze

21/05/15
Para el 2015 se estima que el Producto Interno Bruto Mexicano crecer 2.4%, desde un crecimiento del 2.1% en 2014
En el 1er trimestre de 2015 el PIB creci 2.53% YoY (+0.40% MoM), no obstante la quinta caida trimestral consecutiva del sector de minera.
INEGI de Mxico ha publicado los resultados del Producto Interno Bruto para el 1er. Trimestre de 2015 (pdf, 9 pginas)
El siguiente resumen incluye nuestras proyecciones para el resto del ao 2015 y las perspectivas para el ao siguiente.

Datos anuales
Millions (2008) pesos, NSA
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
Difference
GDP
Y/Y
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Own estimate

2008
392,984
1,054,691
252,552
1,030,710
2,027,255
1,785,940
700,557
324,484
390,550
1,448,376
288,855
74,350
398,773
472,159
250,109
57,353
277,822
255,615
458,064
11,941,199
315,664
0
12,256,863
2008
1.32%
-3.72%
1.27%
3.81%
-1.01%
0.15%
-0.08%
5.99%
21.94%
3.28%
3.12%
7.50%
2.15%
1.15%
1.28%
0.28%
0.06%
1.28%
1.99%
1.40%
1.45%
1.40%

2009
383,159
1,012,072
255,838
968,200
1,857,907
1,563,520
650,008
351,963
403,945
1,464,031
274,463
68,244
370,787
473,027
255,234
55,024
251,067
254,098
467,351
11,379,940
300,809
-0
11,680,749
2009
-2.50%
-4.04%
1.30%
-6.06%
-8.35%
-12.45%
-7.22%
8.47%
3.43%
1.08%
-4.98%
-8.21%
-7.02%
0.18%
2.05%
-4.06%
-9.63%
-0.59%
2.03%
-4.70%
-4.71%
-4.70%

2010
386,056
1,020,993
267,405
975,507
2,016,704
1,749,038
700,120
355,337
488,618
1,504,544
274,171
71,835
373,416
473,852
254,938
57,296
255,905
256,674
478,770
11,961,179
316,480
-0
12,277,659
2010
0.76%
0.88%
4.52%
0.75%
8.55%
11.87%
7.71%
0.96%
20.96%
2.77%
-0.11%
5.26%
0.71%
0.17%
-0.12%
4.13%
1.93%
1.01%
2.44%
5.11%
5.21%
5.11%

2011
377,193
1,017,204
285,979
1,015,099
2,109,315
1,919,062
728,423
371,055
523,318
1,548,510
288,288
74,383
395,696
481,281
260,344
56,876
259,820
261,470
472,103
12,445,420
328,823
0
12,774,243
2011
-2.30%
-0.37%
6.95%
4.06%
4.59%
9.72%
4.04%
4.42%
7.10%
2.92%
5.15%
3.55%
5.97%
1.57%
2.12%
-0.73%
1.53%
1.87%
-1.39%
4.05%
3.90%
4.04%

2012
405,253
1,026,049
292,096
1,039,974
2,196,097
2,010,579
758,002
431,567
563,367
1,587,152
291,365
80,816
412,946
492,032
265,904
58,545
273,949
270,004
489,531
12,945,230
342,304
0
13,287,534
2012
7.44%
0.87%
2.14%
2.45%
4.11%
4.77%
4.06%
16.31%
7.65%
2.50%
1.07%
8.65%
4.36%
2.23%
2.14%
2.93%
5.44%
3.26%
3.69%
4.02%
4.10%
4.02%

2013
409,100
1,024,525
293,646
990,336
2,218,890
2,057,383
776,371
453,142
621,947
1,603,152
294,812
79,379
430,689
495,853
272,543
60,563
278,956
275,787
487,265
13,124,338
347,439
0
13,471,777
2013
0.95%
-0.15%
0.53%
-4.77%
1.04%
2.33%
2.42%
5.00%
10.40%
1.01%
1.18%
-1.78%
4.30%
0.78%
2.50%
3.45%
1.83%
2.14%
-0.46%
1.38%
1.50%
1.39%

2014
422,239
1,001,306
298,804
1,009,623
2,302,076
2,126,216
791,936
463,162
634,496
1,637,450
299,239
84,474
430,507
503,368
274,309
60,048
286,907
279,675
499,472
13,405,308
354,877
-0
13,760,185
2014
3.21%
-2.27%
1.76%
1.95%
3.75%
3.35%
2.00%
2.21%
2.02%
2.14%
1.50%
6.42%
-0.04%
1.52%
0.65%
-0.85%
2.85%
1.41%
2.51%
2.14%
2.14%
2.14%

2015
442,685
965,355
306,783
1,033,425
2,376,765
2,209,696
813,803
485,800
646,688
1,665,901
303,031
84,972
437,680
506,546
277,464
61,011
295,908
285,746
520,703
13,719,962
363,207
0
14,083,169
2015
4.84%
-3.59%
2.67%
2.36%
3.24%
3.93%
2.76%
4.89%
1.92%
1.74%
1.27%
0.59%
1.67%
0.63%
1.15%
1.60%
3.14%
2.17%
4.25%
2.35%
2.35%
2.35%

2016
460,714
929,357
313,754
1,061,559
2,454,158
2,293,698
833,705
502,954
658,978
1,695,581
308,998
86,939
441,799
510,959
280,132
61,577
304,758
291,239
538,552
14,029,410
371,399
0
14,400,809
2016
4.07%
-3.73%
2.27%
2.72%
3.26%
3.80%
2.45%
3.53%
1.90%
1.78%
1.97%
2.32%
0.94%
0.87%
0.96%
0.93%
2.99%
1.92%
3.43%
2.26%
2.26%
2.26%

Datos trimestrales (cifras anualizadas)

Serie Original
Millions (2008) pesos, NSAAR
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
Difference
GDP
Y/Y
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Last data
Own estimate

2014Q1
375,981
1,010,450
289,148
930,254
2,237,277
2,002,639
771,083
460,346
618,303
1,657,511
289,236
78,869
423,286
511,435
278,495
55,594
281,882
273,180
485,017
13,029,987
344,941
0
13,374,928
2014Q1
2.77%
-0.24%
2.23%
-1.57%
4.45%
2.13%
2.26%
2.59%
3.69%
1.94%
0.71%
6.10%
-0.01%
2.39%
0.35%
-2.71%
1.87%
0.33%
3.21%
2.02%
2.02%
2.02%

2014Q2
451,995
1,004,570
279,364
975,526
2,309,124
2,113,570
793,565
463,111
625,911
1,603,522
281,059
82,455
430,043
476,110
264,921
55,798
281,557
274,401
504,394
13,270,996
351,321
0
13,622,317
2014Q2
2.65%
-0.93%
1.63%
-0.63%
2.65%
1.80%
2.05%
4.73%
1.76%
2.23%
-1.78%
3.42%
2.05%
0.24%
1.05%
-1.49%
4.21%
1.42%
2.37%
1.66%
1.66%
1.66%

2014Q3
356,779
1,005,787
317,124
1,021,299
2,322,206
2,140,011
788,559
454,168
631,921
1,634,469
289,565
88,578
421,751
505,646
278,754
62,739
288,285
285,315
488,848
13,381,802
354,255
-0
13,736,057
2014Q3
7.08%
-2.14%
1.52%
3.67%
3.30%
3.92%
1.18%
-0.62%
0.89%
2.31%
1.25%
4.33%
-0.43%
2.50%
0.67%
2.84%
1.87%
2.03%
2.45%
2.22%
2.22%
2.22%

2014Q4
504,202
984,417
309,582
1,111,414
2,339,697
2,248,644
814,535
475,023
661,849
1,654,298
337,098
87,994
446,948
520,280
275,067
66,061
295,903
285,804
519,630
13,938,447
368,991
0
14,307,437
2014Q4
1.44%
-5.66%
1.68%
5.90%
4.63%
5.41%
2.53%
2.23%
1.82%
2.09%
5.38%
12.01%
-1.64%
0.91%
0.54%
-2.07%
3.49%
1.82%
2.03%
2.65%
2.65%
2.65%

2015Q1
401,621
959,667
298,646
969,188
2,302,808
2,097,466
794,090
488,134
625,609
1,683,386
293,111
76,687
434,635
511,183
282,193
57,541
292,050
280,728
510,886
13,359,626
353,668
0
13,713,294
2015Q1
6.82%
-5.03%
3.28%
4.19%
2.93%
4.74%
2.98%
6.04%
1.18%
1.56%
1.34%
-2.77%
2.68%
-0.05%
1.33%
3.50%
3.61%
2.76%
5.33%
2.53%
2.53%
2.53%

2015Q2
470,908
968,716
287,509
1,000,395
2,394,215
2,203,242
817,067
483,045
638,709
1,629,900
288,823
82,620
435,277
481,676
267,628
57,189
290,082
280,003
528,214
13,605,219
360,169
0
13,965,388
2015Q2
4.18%
-3.57%
2.92%
2.55%
3.69%
4.24%
2.96%
4.30%
2.04%
1.65%
2.76%
0.20%
1.22%
1.17%
1.02%
2.49%
3.03%
2.04%
4.72%
2.52%
2.52%
2.52%

2015Q3
370,187
973,413
324,782
1,038,130
2,397,547
2,215,961
811,321
479,556
647,518
1,663,372
292,644
88,980
429,279
507,316
282,134
62,494
298,048
290,368
506,694
13,679,745
362,142
0
14,041,887
2015Q3
3.76%
-3.22%
2.42%
1.65%
3.24%
3.55%
2.89%
5.59%
2.47%
1.77%
1.06%
0.45%
1.78%
0.33%
1.21%
-0.39%
3.39%
1.77%
3.65%
2.23%
2.23%
2.23%

2015Q4
528,024
959,624
316,197
1,125,986
2,412,491
2,322,113
832,735
492,465
674,915
1,686,946
337,546
91,602
451,530
526,010
277,900
66,820
303,452
291,884
537,019
14,235,260
376,848
0
14,612,108
2015Q4
4.72%
-2.52%
2.14%
1.31%
3.11%
3.27%
2.23%
3.67%
1.97%
1.97%
0.13%
4.10%
1.03%
1.10%
1.03%
1.15%
2.55%
2.13%
3.35%
2.13%
2.13%
2.13%

2016Q1
415,869
926,585
303,907
994,759
2,379,137
2,179,406
810,201
497,637
640,227
1,713,347
300,062
79,502
436,653
517,033
284,463
57,926
300,340
285,641
523,351
13,646,047
361,250
0
14,007,297
2016Q1
3.55%
-3.45%
1.76%
2.64%
3.31%
3.91%
2.03%
1.95%
2.34%
1.78%
2.37%
3.67%
0.46%
1.14%
0.80%
0.67%
2.84%
1.75%
2.44%
2.14%
2.14%
2.14%

2014Q2
422,655
1,012,750
297,384
1,002,359
2,295,449
2,120,349
791,121
466,602
633,213
1,636,103
293,518
84,828
432,755
501,941
274,585
59,288
286,444
279,392
494,364
13,385,099
354,169
181
13,739,450
2014Q2
2.98%
-0.84%
0.24%
1.82%
1.17%
2.54%
0.60%
1.19%
0.57%
0.42%
-0.22%
-0.23%
1.34%
0.28%
0.49%
0.54%
1.12%
1.05%
-0.15%
1.02%
1.10%
0.91%

2014Q3
429,963
994,015
299,268
1,015,483
2,314,375
2,145,958
789,274
457,429
634,520
1,641,209
298,688
85,693
430,095
506,818
274,344
61,362
286,482
281,283
501,248
13,447,508
356,152
7,304
13,810,964
2014Q3
1.73%
-1.85%
0.63%
1.31%
0.82%
1.21%
-0.23%
-1.97%
0.21%
0.31%
1.76%
1.02%
-0.61%
0.97%
-0.09%
3.50%
0.01%
0.68%
1.39%
0.47%
0.56%
0.52%

2014Q4
425,475
973,459
301,751
1,031,398
2,340,239
2,177,594
800,684
468,549
639,569
1,644,345
304,252
82,508
432,447
503,558
275,199
60,594
291,239
281,450
507,127
13,541,437
358,562
2,101
13,902,099
2014Q4
-1.04%
-2.07%
0.83%
1.57%
1.12%
1.47%
1.45%
2.43%
0.80%
0.19%
1.86%
-3.72%
0.55%
-0.64%
0.31%
-1.25%
1.66%
0.06%
1.17%
0.70%
0.68%
0.66%

2015Q1
438,279
973,398
306,235
1,027,792
2,354,504
2,185,790
811,108
487,506
638,899
1,653,549
301,514
82,682
438,038
503,769
276,809
61,177
293,420
284,250
520,975
13,639,691
360,232
-42,578
13,957,345
2015Q1
3.01%
-0.01%
1.49%
-0.35%
0.61%
0.38%
1.30%
4.05%
-0.10%
0.56%
-0.90%
0.21%
1.29%
0.04%
0.59%
0.96%
0.75%
0.99%
2.73%
0.73%
0.47%
0.40%

2015Q2
439,397
972,726
305,935
1,023,537
2,362,908
2,192,909
811,719
487,505
646,913
1,663,110
299,498
84,776
438,786
504,448
277,540
60,408
295,099
285,049
517,107
13,669,370
361,662
5,284
14,036,315
2015Q2
0.26%
-0.07%
-0.10%
-0.41%
0.36%
0.33%
0.08%
-0.00%
1.25%
0.58%
-0.67%
2.53%
0.17%
0.13%
0.26%
-1.26%
0.57%
0.28%
-0.74%
0.22%
0.40%
0.57%

2015Q3
447,095
966,024
306,576
1,033,251
2,383,039
2,216,246
813,196
482,415
648,988
1,671,047
302,711
86,692
436,681
508,885
277,507
61,284
295,954
286,528
520,279
13,744,397
363,608
18,326
14,126,332
2015Q3
1.75%
-0.69%
0.21%
0.95%
0.85%
1.06%
0.18%
-1.04%
0.32%
0.48%
1.07%
2.26%
-0.48%
0.88%
-0.01%
1.45%
0.29%
0.52%
0.61%
0.55%
0.54%
0.64%

2015Q4
445,969
949,272
308,388
1,049,119
2,406,611
2,243,839
819,191
485,773
651,951
1,675,899
308,401
85,739
437,216
509,082
277,999
61,176
299,158
287,156
524,453
13,826,392
365,816
20,477
14,212,685
2015Q4
-0.25%
-1.73%
0.59%
1.54%
0.99%
1.25%
0.74%
0.70%
0.46%
0.29%
1.88%
-1.10%
0.12%
0.04%
0.18%
-0.18%
1.08%
0.22%
0.80%
0.60%
0.61%
0.61%

2016Q1
454,147
938,782
311,766
1,057,003
2,427,436
2,265,493
827,752
497,931
652,551
1,683,655
308,104
85,682
440,256
508,894
279,056
61,447
301,809
289,145
534,149
13,925,058
368,422
-12,330
14,281,150
2016Q1
1.83%
-1.11%
1.10%
0.75%
0.87%
0.97%
1.05%
2.50%
0.09%
0.46%
-0.10%
-0.07%
0.70%
-0.04%
0.38%
0.44%
0.89%
0.69%
1.85%
0.71%
0.71%
0.48%

Serie Ajustada por Estacionalidad

Million (2008) pesos, SAAR
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
Residual
GDP
Q/Q (own estimate)
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Last data
Own estimate

2014Q1
410,419
1,021,315
296,675
984,420
2,268,982
2,067,794
786,439
461,115
629,643
1,629,238
294,161
85,025
427,031
500,527
273,233
58,969
283,285
276,494
495,109
13,249,874
350,305
15,891
13,616,070
2014Q1
-2.19%
-0.97%
-0.01%
0.78%
1.46%
0.04%
0.50%
0.75%
0.13%
1.26%
0.26%
15.96%
-2.92%
0.25%
-0.17%
-4.60%
0.49%
0.14%
-0.38%
0.36%
0.22%
0.49%