JAMAICA COFFEE

ASSESSMENT &
STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN
OVERVIEW

Coffee Working Group Meeting

August 27th, 2014

JAMAICA COFFEE PRODUCTION TREND: WHY ARE WE HERE?

700,000
600,000

Boxes

500,000
400,000
300,000

200,000
Dean

100,000
Ivan

Year
BM

HM

JAMAICA COFFEE ASSESSMENT: OBJECTIVE

What this study did NOT do:

Focus on post harvest
quality aspects
Examine markets
Take a statistically
significant sample of the BM
or HM regions

What this study did do:

Focus on factors that affect
farm yield / overall
Jamaican production
Determine farmer trends
Capture farm data to
support short, medium,
long-term solutions
Benchmark

SCENARIO: DO NOTHING

Quality
deterioration

Price drops

Smallholder mass
exit

Strong social
impact

Collapse
of coffee
value
chain

Panama
Model

SCENARIO: BEST CASE

Quality preserved
and enhanced

Price maintained

Organized value
chain
Win-win between
farmers & producers

Sustainable
and
profitable
industry

Champagne
model

FARM VISITS: SAMPLE OVERVIEW

32 farms
with
sufficient
data

39 farms
visited

Farm visits
28 BM / 11 HM

Manchester
5%

St Catherine West Moreland

8%
8%
St Ann
5%

29 were
further
analyzed
(4 outliers)

Sampled Farms by Size

BM

Portland
20%

HM

2
2
7

Hanover
3%

15
5
8

St Thomas
23%

St Andrew
28%

Small

Combination of data, field observation and expertise

Medium

Large

PROTECTING & CONTROLLING YOUR DNA

Jamaica is an origin known for Typica, however there is

an increase in Catimor presence across high % of farms.
97

% Farms with Varieties

56

53

13

Typica

Catimor

Geisha or Special

Other (Caturra,
Catuai)

PROTECTING & CONTROLLING YOUR DNA

We understand why - problem with yield, problem

with rust
It will change cup quality and eventually damage
brand reputation
Common thread across all stakeholders - varieties
Any other agronomic recommendations need to
take variety control into account.

IMMEDIATE SOLUTIONS: VARIETIES

Conserve Typica
Take serious rust
control measures
Create technical
standards for
nurseries
Provide training on
good planting
techniques

Introduce new
varieties
ASAP
Immediately stop
planting first
generation
Catimors
Consider Java
Start parallel intro
and trials with
shortlist varieties

DATA TRENDS: FARMER PROFILES

Smallholder

Group
1
Low yield

Opportunist

Group
2
Average

Group
3

Technified

(8 bx/acre)

yield
(20 bx/acre)

High yield
(37 bx/acre)

Average
age: 62

Average
age: 49

Average
age: 66

Ave size:
5 acres
(coffee)

Ave size:
4 acres
(coffee)

Ave size:
13 acres
(coffee)

Income from
coffee: 62%

Income from
coffee: 28%

Income from
coffee: 82%

Average alt:
441 mts

Average alt:
552 mts

Average alt:
672 mts

Benchmarking

Boxes / acre

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: YIELD PER ACRE

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

97

57
37
20
8

57

52
34

16

16

Boxes per 100 man days

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: LABOR PRODUCTIVITY

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

174

150
120

36

29

40

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: PRODUCTION COSTS / BOX

8,000
6,720

JMD/ Box

7,000
6,000
5,000

5,600
4,480

4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

1,400

1,277
700

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: INPUT COST / ACRE

90,000
79,000

80,000
70,000
JMD/Acre

60,000

50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000

18,989

23,200

26,330

10,000
0
Smallholders

Opportunist

Technified

Colombia

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: NET INCOME / ACRE

60,000

54,000

51,200

40,000
25000
JMD / Acre

20,000
0
-20,000

-16,000
-22,000

-40,000
-60,000

-39,000

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: DENSITY

Density : Plant per Acre
(Ideal = 871 plants for Typica intercropped with banana)
300-600
25%

Jamaica (Mean) = 700

Uganda = 912
Oaxaca Sur = 600

800-871
50%
600-800
25%

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: AGE OF TREES

Young (0-5)
4%
In most countries:
60% > 25 years

Old (>25)
32%

Adult (5-25)
64%

A VERY SMALL GROUP OF HIGHLY TECHNIFIED FARMS

Net Income / Acre

Yield
90

82

250,000

80
70

58

60

228,000

200,000

150,000

50
40

100,000

30
20

50,000

25,000

10
0

Jamaica high tech

Colombia

Jamaica high tech

Colombia

DATA TRENDS: FARMER PROFILES

Group
1

Smallholder
Low yield
(8 bx/acre)

Opportunist
Group
2

Average yield
(20 bx/acre)

Group
3

Technified
High yield
(37 bx/acre)

Highly
Group Technified
4
High yield
(82 bx/acre)

Average age:
62

Average age:
49

Average age:
66

Average age:
62

Ave size:
5 acres
(coffee)

Ave size:
4 acres
(coffee)

Ave size:
13 acres
(coffee)

Ave size:
107 acres
(coffee)

Income from
coffee: 62%

Income from
coffee: 28%

Income from
coffee: 82%

Income from
coffee: 80%

Average alt:
441 mts

Average alt:
552 mts

Average alt:
672 mts

Average alt:
550 mts

Whole farm
gross
income:
JMD 398,975

Whole farm
gross
income: JMD
1,683,713

Whole farm
gross
income: JMD
2,387,500

Whole farm
gross
income: JMD
24,100,000

YIELD & NET INCOME

INPUT PRODUCTION RESPONSE

O >> I

High Yielder
More yield more net income

O < I

Low Yielder
More yield is not always translated in more net
income
Comparing Input and Output

DATA TRENDS: NET INCOME AND YIELD

Net income is NOT always correlated to Yield
200,000

150,000

100,000

JMD $

50,000
R = 0.0194

10

20

30

40

-50,000

-100,000

-150,000

-200,000

BOXES PER ACRE

50

60

70

80

DATA TRENDS: YIELD

80

200,000

70

150,000

60

100,000

50
R = 0.1961

40
30
20

Coffee net Income / Acre

Yield (Boxes / Acre)

Pesticide treatment frequency can increase yield

but does not translate in net income

50,000

-50,000
R = 0.1177
-100,000

10
-150,000

0
0

2
3
# OF APPLICATIONS

5
-200,000

# OF APPLICATIONS

DATA TRENDS: YIELD AND NET INCOME

Labor input / Acre can increase yield
but decreases coffee net income
80

200,000

70

150,000

60
NET INCOME (JMD)

100,000

Yield

50
40
R = 0.1844
30

20

50,000
0

50000

100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

-50,000
-100,000

10
-150,000

0
0

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

LABOR COSTS PER ACRE (JMD

300000

-200,000

R = 0.609

LABOR COSTS PER ACRE (JMD)

HOW ABOUT FERTILIZER

Fertilization can increase yield
but has no effect on coffee net income
40

100,000

35
Net coffee income / Acre

50,000

30

R = 0.2863

Yield

25
20
15
10
5

-50,000

10,000

20,000

30,000

R = 0.0603

-100,000

-150,000

0
-

10,000

20,000
30,000
Fert cost / Ac

40,000

50,000

-200,000

40,000

Fert cost / Acre

50,000

DATA TRENDS: YIELD

Low density tends to generate lower yields
Yield vs # of trees per acre
80

70

60

BOXES

50

40

30
R = 0.0361

20

10

0
0

100

200

300

400

500
# OF TREES

600

700

800

900

1000

DATA TRENDS: YIELD

Farms depending less on coffee tend to have lower yields
80

70

60

BOXES

50

40

30

20

10

0
0%

Footer

10%

20%

30%

40%
50%
60%
INCOME FROM COFFEE

70%

80%

90%

100%

DATA TRENDS: NET INCOME

Larger sized households tend to have better net income

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000
JMD $

R = 0.1827
0

-50,000

-100,000

-150,000

-200,000

# OF FAMILY MEMBERS

MAIN TAKEAWAYS: LABOR, FERTILIZER, PESTICIDES

Better yields with more inputs does not necessarily translate

in higher net income, specifically for low yielders
Clear antagonism between volume strategy and smallholder
economic model
Technical assistance should focus on improving efficiency to increase
farmer return:
1. Utilize higher yielding varieties
2. Increase # of trees per acre
3. Revise labor use strategy and cut back where possible
4. Increase input use efficiency: revise fertilizer mix & dosages and
frequency of pesticide applications

MAIN TAKEAWAYS: VARIETIES

Immediately stop planting Catimor

Short term introduction of Typica like

varieties (JAVA)
Develop comprehensive strategy on variety
introduction

STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN

SOLUTIONS: GENETICS

Short
Identify reliable seed sources
Determine nursery certification
criteria
Certify nurseries against new criteria
Ban planting of first generation
Catimor
Produce 1 million certified plants
(typica, java)
Determine preferred varieties for
Jamaica
Develop commercial pilot plots
(seed, hybrid varieties)
Release short-listed seed varieties
Release short-listed hybrid varieties

Medium

Long

4 months
2 months
6 months

ASAP
2015 planting
season

Start ASAP

18 months
2016 planting
season
2020 planting
season
2020 planting
season

SOLUTIONS: AGRONOMIC

Short
Train the Trainers on tree based
recommendations
Create mentor program using
experienced international peers
Fine tune fertilization recommendations
Create demo plots showing
recommendations

3 months
6 months

2 years

2-6 months

Prep ASAP

Organize farmer field days in demo plots

Reinforce basic messages on pesticide
Introduce new products to control CBB
Reinforce basic messages on rust
Reinforce basic messages on good
planting practices
Explore service provider models to
increase labor efficiency

Medium

2016 planting
season
6 months after
creation

3 months
2 years
3 months
ASAP
18 months

Long

SOLUTIONS: DETERMINE STRATEGY FOR JAMAICAN COFFEE

Short
Include private sector representation
in CIB's Board
Determine specifications for
Geographical Indication
Organize group to control & enforce
GI
Achieve GI registration
Achieve analytic authentication of
BM coffee (NIRS)

Medium

Long

ASAP
2 years
2 years
5-6 years

2 years

SOLUTIONS: DEVELOPING INCLUSIVE BUSINESS MODELS

Short

Medium

Develop efficient farmer technical

6 months
assistance strategies (firm level)
Offer multi-year contracts with
Benchmark
2015 / 2016 harvest
premiums for increased yields
Deliver on-time inputs that correspond
2014 / 2015 harvest
to agronomic needs
Ensure that (registered, appropriate)
2014 / 2015 harvest
inputs are accessible
Utilize text messaging to prepare
2014 / 2015 harvest
farmers for action
Know your farmers: update / create
Start ASAP
farmer database
Improve access to working capital lines
2 years
Explore options for concessional
finance for planting material for
Start ASAP
farmers

Long

DISCUSSION & NEXT STEPS

How do you see this Plan being implemented?

Genetics

Agronomy

Inclusive
Business

Group
Strategy

IFC CAN SUPPORT

Match project funds on pre-competitive activities

Bring partial project funding for firm specific activities
Oversee the strategic action plan
Explore commercial finance options for producers and
farmers (medium term)
Identify potential partners for activities that are not under
IFCs mandate

We cannot provide grant funding, fund public sector entities

or subsidize purchases of goods/assets.

THANK YOU!

TODAYS DISCUSSION: ROAD MAP

Efficiency
Needs /
Challenges

Objectives

Means

Relevance
Increasing Jamaican
coffee volume

Preserve and reinforce

Jamaican coffee
reputation

Bridge the gap

between farmers
yield and coffee
net income

Impact
Effectiveness

1. Agronomy
2. TA & Inclusive
business

Control coffee
varieties

3. Genetics

Have a GI for
Jamaican coffee

4. Group strategy

Volume is
increased b/c
yield does provide
more net income
to farmers
Jamaican coffee
reputation
reinforced through
varietal control and
GI registration

Benchmarking

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: MAN DAYS / ACRE

80

72

70

65

MD / Acre

60

50
40
30

26
21

20
10
0
Smallholders

Opportunist

Technified

Average world

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: % OF COFFEE INCOME

100
90
80

71

JMD / Acre

70

60

54

50
40
27

30
20
10

Smallholders

Opportunist

Technified

Average
elsewhere

JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: PRICE OF COFFEE

6,000

5,000

5,000

JMD/Box

4,000
3,000
2,200
2,000

1,662
1,200

1,000
0
BM

JM

Colombia

Mexico

Catimor

Footer

Genetic Control Contd

Hybrid introduced - 1980s & early 1990s
Predominantly: Hybrid De Timor x Caturra
crosses
Hybrids: e.g. T5157, T5159 & 2308
Only resistant to some races of Rust
However, taste, beans size & shape did not
conform to our Jamaican coffee profile. As
such propagation of these hybrids have
been discouraged.
COFFEE LEAF RUST WORKSHOP
CICAFE, COSTA RICA
MARCH 13-14, 2008
Presented by: Louis Campbell
Advisory Services Manager

( lcampbell@ciboj.org )

Cost Incurred
Slight to moderate infection
Labour Material -

2 md/ac @ 1000/md
$2,000
Champion/Kocide $650/lb
x 4 lbs/application /ac
$2,600
Sticker 50 ml/drum
$ 150

Equipment Pump (hire) $700/day

Water
Transportation
Lubricants & Gas

$ 700
$ 300
$ 500
$ 500
$6,750
2 application per ac = $13,500 (US$190)

Decision Trees

DECISION TREE: PRUNE OR PLANT

Medium term
impact

Current situation

Productive
trees

Productive

Coffee tree

Unproductive

Prune

Resuscitated
trees

Exhausted

Uproot

Healthy,
young trees

Gap

Healthy,
young trees

DECISION TREE: FERTILIZER USE

Type of tree

Productive
trees

Pruned trees

Adult

3 x 3 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK

Year 0

2 x2 oz
1 urea + 1 npk

Year 1

3 x 2 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK

Adult

3 x 3 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK

Year 0

2 oz urea after planting

Year 1

2 x2 oz
1 urea + 1 npk

Year 2

3 x 2 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK

Adult

3 x 3 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK

Young
replanted trees

Further fine tune

with soil
sample analysis

VARIETY INTRODUCTION
Current
situation

Short term
situation

Uncontrolled variety
strategy

Control of existing
historical varieties

Mix of varieties
Use of low cup quality
varieties (catimor)
Risk of losing original
type

Make a rational choice

of available varieties to
be grown
Identify reliable seed
stock
Technical certification of
nurseries to ensure
good planting material
Genetic
Physiological status
Phytosanitary status

Medium term
situation

Comprehensive
introduction and use
of modern rust
resistant varieties

Informational material
and assistance for
farmers to help them
choose the most
adequate mix of
varieties.
Develop farm planting
strategies