Contents

The promising but complex future of world wide tourism industry..........................................................................2

Sustainable Development in Tourism..................................................................................................................... 3
The relationship between tourism and its surrounding environment.................................................................4
Climate change and Tourism.............................................................................................................................. 5
The new tourists.................................................................................................................................................... 6
Autonomous and Niche Tourism........................................................................................................................ 7
Safety and Security a hot topic........................................................................................................................... 8
The future of Tourism............................................................................................................................................. 9
References.......................................................................................................................................................... 10

The promising but complex future of world wide tourism

industry
According to Khan (2014), as the world is becoming more complex, so is the tourism
industry. Such opinion is supported by Goeldner and Ritchie (2012) when they did
mention the realistic view about the future of tourism which is believed to show the even
faster and more dynamic development within in next 20 years.
Looking at the statistic proposed by UNWTO (2011), it is certain to foresee the promising
future of tourism. In the UNWTO General Assembly (2011), the organization has
predicted that the number of international tourist arrivals will reach 1.6 billion by 2020
with the annual growth of 4.2%. By that time, tourism is believed to become the largest
industry worldwide which will involve over 300 million employees (Ibid.).
At another angle, the potential directions for future tourism has been study by many
scholars who did investigate mega forces affecting the industry directly (Goeldner and
Ritchie, 2012). The most common issues addressed by researchers is the growing
concern of sustainable tourism which raised up by both environmental issues such as
global warming and societal problems like the exploitation of local economy (Holloway et
al., 2009). On the other hand, the works by Cooper (2005), Corandy and Buck (2011),
andYeoman (2010) identify the portrait of future tourists which is shaped by the changing
of demographic (disappearing baby boomers, rising generation Y, Z) or thechanging of
values and lifstyles.In these days of political strain amongst countries and the rise of
terrorism, the safety issues will be placed at the highest levels of consideration within
many travelling plan as proved by Kvri and Zimnyi (2011).
To sum up the most recent forces that shape the future of tourism industry, the author
will employ the table proposed by Yeoman (2008)as following:

Figure 1: Global Forces (Mega Drivers) that will Influence Tourism in the Third Millennium
(Yeoman, 2008)
Following the concept of Cooper (2005), Hall (2004), and the discussion above it is crucial
to analyse the issues and trends of sustainability, the changing tourist behaviours, and
the security and safety concern together with current or future implication in order to
provide a clear picture of tourism in the year of 2020.

Sustainable Development in Tourism

The most well know definition of sustainable development was proposed by World
Commission on Environment and Development (1987). The concept has pointed out the
necessary of developing without harming the future needs of coming generation. To put
things in detail, Goeldner and Ritchie (2012) indicate that sustainability can be achieved
only if the three following elements are met:
-

Environmental sustainability: carefully manage the utilization of natural resource

as well as the emission to conserve biological system.

Economic sustainability: maintaining the healthy financial state of both the firm

and the local host.

Social sustainability: support the healthy being of local community in term of both
tangible and intangible value.

Within the context of tourism, sustainable practice is not an exemption when World
Tourism Organization (2009) suggested that it should:
-

Optimize the use of all environmental resources for tourism without harming the

ecological system
Respect the local community and its cultural identity; at the same time build and

support for the mutual understanding between tourist and host communities
Strike for the balance in distributing the economic profit from tourism related
activities amongst stakeholders.

Despite the fact that such concept is still under many critics due to the confusing in term
of practical scope (Dickinson and Lumsdon, 2010), it will be a useful tool to provide the
policy makers identify the potential sustainable issues affecting future tourism as well as
the solution for such problems.

The relationship between tourism and its surrounding

environment

According to Goeldner and Ritchie (2012), the tourism and its dwelling environment
(economic, social, and environmental) are interrelated. They also explain for the
relationship as the tourism industry is very depending on the interaction between the
visitors and the host communities and the local environment; and, such dependence is
believed to be grown in the future when tourists will be seeking for more in-depth
experience with the visited place (Poon, 1993). On the other and, Gssling (2002) believe
that all components related to tourism can contribute to hazardous phenomenon in the
environments. The consulting from several authors has led to the construction of the
table of potential effects of economical, social, and environmental on tourism in the near
future:

Authors
Corandy and Buck (2011)

Impacts
Holistic Quality of Life and

Policy makers solution

Taking a holistic view to see the

Rising Eco-awareness from

tourism within the relationship

visitors side

with other industries. Engage all

stake holders to pursuit

Sharpley

and

Telfer

(2002)
Goeldner

and

(2012)

Ritchie

The increase of global warming

sustainable tourism
Impose
strict
control

effects will destroy tourism base

activities which generate GHG

resources
The rise of visitors from big

such as transportation.
Carefully study the volume and

economies such as China, India,

potential of each new emerging

Korea, Brazil.

market in order not to miss the

chance

to

maximize

on

tourism

revenue. (introducing of new

products

such

shopping

tour

as
for

luxury
Chinese

visitors)
As it is said by Goeldner and Ritchie (2012), in these days of growing concern about
sustainable practice, the tourism planners should take into account the impacts of
tourism on the destination and how to limit them with the aim of achieving the
competitive advantages in the eyes of new tourists. Chinas economic growth provide
both opportunity and threat to other tourism destinations. Goeldner and Ritchie (2012)
indicate that the rise of this country (in both economic and political status) has provided
the world tourism with an enormous number of Chinese tourists (83.2 million in 2012)
who are encouraged to travel and ready to spend more than other Asian visitors.
Consequently, TUI (2014), the leader travel agent in Europe, has carried on a market
research on Chinese tourist with the aim of gaining a more indepth understanding for
providing the right kind of travel offers to the target group of Chinese tourists in
Europe. However, Goeldner and Ritchie (2012) also suggest that tourism policy makers
outside China should carefully take into account the fact that the country is seeking to
become the major tourist destination itself with a new range of experiences provided.
For the issue of global warming, the author will analyze it separately in the part below
since such phenomenon is the biggest one that matter the tourism industry in the
century to come.

Climate change and Tourism

Amongst the various aspects of sustainable issues, the ones caused by climate change
are the popular topic for discussion of researchers. As stated by Weller and Lange (1999),
any climate change will lead to the change of biological system; hence, affect heavily the
uniqueness of one destination. Such belief is supported by Dickinson and Lumsdon(2010)
who have written that tourism is a climate-sensitive industry since there are proofs that
climate changes can affect the tourism flow in each destinations. In detail, the study by

Aspen Global Change Institute (2006) has shown the connection between the decreasing
numbers of visitors to destinations which is too hot to visit. Similarly, the research by
Saunders et al. (2008) pointed out that the decrease of 5.3% in 2008-2009 visitors at
USA ski resorts was caused by the unfavourable snow level.
Apart from directly affecting the travel behaviours, climate change is believed to change
the resource base of the tourism industry as following (IPCC, 2007):
-

Land impact : drier ecosystem due to the reduction of rainfall, disappearance of

rain forest
Coastal impact: disappearance of mangroves,
Marine impact: disappeance of coral reefs, growth of harmful alga destroying eco
system

Clearly, such impacts will reduce the competiveness of one tourism destination as in the
case of Maldives when the archipelago of such island (the base for its tourism industry)
will likely disappear under the sea ((Conrady&Bakan, 2008). To sum up the potential
effects of climate change on tourism, it is essential to sum up the several studies by
various researchers in the table below:
Authors
IPCC (2007)

Impacts
Changing terrestrial, coastal,

Results
Change tourism resource base

Amelung

marine ecosystem
Destroy tourism-compatible

and cause biodiversity loss

Less visitation by tourists

climatic condition
Change in natural base

Loss of many destinations

Weather change

Growing

(2006)
Goeldner

and
and

Viner
Ritchie

(2012)

number

of

summer

destinations
Cost to maintain natural base

Increase in operating cost, rise

increase

of travel fee

Rising demand for ecotourism

Increase

number

sophistication
Customers
OBrien et al. (2006)

more

about sustainability
Indirect
impacts

concern
such

as

droughts, disease, algal blooms,

of

and
tourism

products
Negative

image

of

tourist

destination

wildfires
Figure 2: Impacts of climate change of tourism (adapted by the author)
It is suggested by Holloway et al. (2009) that in order to cope with the climate change,
the employment of sustainable practice will help the tourism firms in two affective ways:
-

Directly reducing the emissions of GHG from tourism related activities (Gssling,

2002)
The employment of sustainable practices can become a competitive advantage in
these days of environmentally conscious customers (Conrady& Buck, 2011).

For the former set of practices, several agreements have been signed all over the worlds
with the aim of reducing the emission of GHG such as the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (1992). In case of tourism related activities, Airline

industry is facing the biggest critique of producing 3% green house gas. In order to cope
with this problem, the policy makers in UK have suggested the following solutions:
-

The introduction for VAT on fuel for domestic flights: this practice will encourage
the airline to look for more energy-efficient aircraft which in turn profits both

airline (rise in profit) and environment

The introduction of tax on CO2 generated by flight: again this practice will lead to

the revolution in aircraft making looking for a more climate-friendly products

The reduction in short-haul flight: this practices even though can reduce the
amount of GHG but it will unfortunately discourage the short-haul travellers,
hence, destroy the intra-regional tourism industry (Holloway et al., 2009)

In the wider context of the whole tourism industry, it is advised by Beech and
Chadwick(2006) that the policy makers must encourage the tourism business to design
environmental friendly products and at the same time educate tourists of consuming
tourism product responsibly. Such two way approach is very useful since it can both
generate the market for sustainable tourism product (through educating tourists) and
provide niche product for the more demanding future travellers (ethical tourism) (Ibid).
The case of Gorillas tour in Rwanda by Lanjouw, (1999) can be used to demonstrate for
such practice.
The Parc National des Volcans in Rwanda is the home for 300 mountain gorillas
those are being endangered by excessive poaching and farming. The Office Rwandaise
du Tourisme et de ParcsNationaux has opened and manage the tour to visit such animals
at which tourists are organized into small groups to observe the gorillas in their own
natural habitat. The government agent has involved the local guides to direct the guests
and provide them with all information about the animals. Due to its huge success in
finance and reputation, the program has also got the local people and former tourists to
be involved in protecting the gorillas (Lanjouw, 1999).

The new tourists

The emerging of the new tourists is directly resulted from the social trends/ impacts
which are divided into 3 categories of: social values and society, lifestyles, and
demographics (Dwyer et al. 2008). Such change was mentioned in the work of Poon
(1993) through the concept of the new tourists who want to experience something new,
to manage themselves, concern more about the local, and to be more adventurous. On
the other hand, Beech and Chadwick (2004) proposed the concept of MAVERICS the
21st century tourists who are more or less the same with that of Poon: Multi-holidaying,
Autonomous, Variegated, Energised, Restless, Irresponsible, Constrained, Segmented.

Figure 2: Poons new tourists (1993, p.10)

Such phenomenon can be explained by the work of Dwyer et al. (2008) and Goeldner and
Ritchie (2012) on the changing in world population.

Autonomous and Niche Tourism

Both Poon and Beech and Chadwicks tourists have the characteristic of being
autonomous, want to be experience something different. As explained by Goeldner and
Ritchie (2012), such desire is the result of the knowledge-based society where people in
developed countries can gain access to the enormous amount of tourism information. As
a result, travellers from such countries are expected to be more experienced and more
demanding; so that they will keep seeking for unique experience when traveling. On the
other hand, Dwyer et al. (2008) employs the individualism to explain to such trend. She
believed that consumers, under the pressure of self-differentiation, will seek to customize
and personalize the product (travel experiences) to meet their own needs and wants. In
order to meets this future trend, the practices of niche tourism are recommended to
tourist planner as following:

Figure 3: Niche Tourism (Novelli, 2005)

From the policy makers point of view, the following practices are suggested by Goeldner
and Ritchie (2012):
New

tourists

demand
Meet the
demand of

Practices

for

niche

Comment from scholars

market
Increase the number

Provide tourism based product in

of small and medium

less

touristic

are

(Beech

and

Pros

Chadwick, 2008)
Poormanagement
enterprise

make

it

hard

skills
to

of

maintain

SMEs
the

Con
s

opreation (McKercher and Robbins

1998)
Provide the new tourist with more
A need for more
specialist tour
experience

operators

something
different

Pros

personalized advices on products

(Beech and Chadwick, 2006)
Require big invest on both facilities

Con

and human resources. Travel fee

maybe high
Balance the tourist flow within the

Pros

countries, provide more economic

Increased demand for

benefit to less well known area

tourism products in
countries so far

(Cooper, 2003)
Require
big

bypassed by

marketing; may cause bad societal

masstourism

impact on the destination if the

investment

on

Con
s

number of tourists is not controlled

properly
Figure 5: Criticize the practice of niche tourism (adapted by the author)
The practice of niche market tourism can be found properly in the case of space tourism
all over the world in the last few years:
-

The very first space traveller Dennis Tito has paid to get on a Russian space

shuttle in 2001
In 2001, NASA set out the criteria for space tourists
The privately-built Space Ship One open the possibility of developing the space
travel sector when reach the height of over 70 miles for the first time.
(www.spacefuture.com)

Such incidents have led to the establishment of specialist tour operators Virgin Galactic
by Virgin Group which aiming at developing the space tourism. The project seems to be
successful with the estimation of 13,500 customers who are ready to pay more than
100,000 pound for the trip to outer space.

Safety and Security a hot topic

According to Maslow, the state of being safe and secured is the basic foundation need for
any demand of higher level. It is also confirmed by Conrady and Buck (2011) that
although tourists security and safety are not the old topic, the recent political and health
incidents happened all over the world had

put the policy maker facing the new

challenges of assuring such basic need, hence, revising the tourism industry. Regarding
the safety and security concern of tourist in the new century, Dwyer et al. (2008) have
proposed the following mega trends:
-

The up rise of terrorism: following the incident of 9-11 and many kidnappings
caused by terrorists, tourists, especially those are from USA, are becoming more

and more reluctant to travel long-haul (stay close to home is safer) (Beech and
Chadwick, 2006). Terrorism and internal conflict can interfere globalisation by
dramatically increasing security costs for international commerce, and introducing
border control policies.Due to the new characteristic of seeking for new
experience, the future tourists may take risk to enter conflict zone to fulfil their
personal need of achievement and exploitation. It is the work of each policy
makers to maintain the law strict enough to control the terrorism while still
-

allowing travellers to wander around.(Dwyer et al., 2008)

Health risk and security: the steady rise in travel force is one of the factor
facilitating the outbreak of many diseases all over the world (Perz, Allen
&Schaffner 2001). As in the case of recent Ebola outbreak, when the country is
under economic stress of developing the tourism industry, such health-related
issue is not communicated and reported widely to the world. Such reckless action
done by the government has worsened the situation and brings the dead to
thousands of civilization. More over, with the infection of several Westerners who
are accidentally got ill, the reputation of the central Africa countries will be
reduced to nothing. It is recommended by Wilder-Smith (2005) that both the host
and guests countries need to communicate actively in the future to monitor any
potential problem related to health.

The case of townships tours in South Africa, according to George is the very good
example of managing tourism in the high-risk environment. The township tour of Cape
Tour South Africa is quite popular amongst tourists who seek for unique experience about
life in the communities. The government has ordered the tour operators to carefully
examined the townships area to cut dangerous ones such as Mannenberg (high level of
HIV and unemployment) out of the tour program. As a result, the tourists begin to
recognize the protection they receive from the policy makers which still allow them to
discover the life at Cape Town. Consequently, the market for township tour grows that
lead to the increase in resident living standard (Holloway et al. 2009).

The future of Tourism

According to Beech and Chadwick(2006), tourism will be undergoing a steady rise in the
future but its own characteristics will be defined by various factors ranging from the
uncontrollable environmental impacts to the security and health concern ones. The
challenges that tourism manager must face in the future are:
-

The seek of more secured destination

The introduction of the new generation of tourists
The growing impacts from climate

While keeping in mind the ultimate goal of reaching the good financial state for the area,
the tourism policy makers must recognize the need to:
-

Establish good policy to let the tourist explore the are while keeping them safe
Maintain good communication for better crisis management
Encourage the practice of niche tourism to meet the new tourist demand
Facilitate the practice of sustainability in both service providers and customers

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