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Preflop Steals for auto-profit and tournaments without ante:
Formula: Invest / (Pot + Invest)
Example for the first situation: 3 / (1,5 + 3) --> calculator 3 / 4,5 = 0,66 =
66%
3 Big Blind raise --> invest 3 to win 1,5. It has to work 2 out of 3 situations =
66%
2,5 Big Blind raise --> invest 2,5 to win 1,5. Has to work 62,5%
2 Big Blind raise --> invest 2 to win 1,5. Has to work 57,1%
BUT if you are in the Small Blind and you raise 3 Big Blinds, remember, you
only INVEST 2,5bb as your Small Blind is inside already!
In general we use / need the following fold-equity to get auto-profit over time:
CO steal 66,6% with 3bb open raises OR 62,5% with 2,5bb open raises
BU steal vs Blinds 57,1% if we raise 2bb
SB steal vs BB 62,5% if we raise 3bb (invest 2,5bb)
Big Blind 3bet / re-raises / re-steals to get auto-profit:
On the following examples we always need him to fold 66% to print money...
2 to 8
2,5 to 9
3 to 10
From 2 to 8 --> we invest 7 to win 3,5... it has to work in 2 out of 3 times =
66%
Example:
Button raises 2 Big Blinds, there are 3,5 Big Blind in the Pot (2bb open raise +
1 big blind + 0.5 small blind), we re-raise to 8 Big Blinds from the BigBlind
investing 7 Big Blinds as 1 Big Blind is inside already.
Formula we remember = Invest / (Pot + Invest)
7 / (3,5 + 7) --> for the calculator 7 / 10,5 = 0,66 = 66%
How can that work? Let us do another example:
Our opponent in the BU opens a 75% range of hands which is common as the
Button is the best position on the table. He plays in position post-flop (on Flop
Turn and River). He has a good steal situation as he only has 2 players behind
him who very likely have no "premium" hand.
If you re-raise from the Big Blind now, your opponent should fold 66% of
those hands to give you the best thing in poker --> auto-profit. But even if he
just folds 59% its fine for us as our hand still plays (has equity) and we have
the iniative.
Lets calculate this.
75% open raise x 33% he may still play (remember we need 66% fold-equity)
0.75 x 0.33 = 0.25 = 25% of total hands.
That means if your opponent is not capable to play something like KJo or 87s
or 88 to a 3bet / re-raise you can pressure him a ton...
If you 3bet something like T6 suited which is obviously not for value and your
opponent folds 59% to 3bets, we do NOT generate auto-profit but we still
have ~ 30% hand equity against his "call to 3bet range". Dont think we win
the pot in 30% here!!! That is up to your opponent... sometimes our opponent
folds too often to our flop cbet. Sometimes our opponent is tough to play and
we should wait for really good boards for our T6 suited for example
Flushdraws, TopPairs, 2-Pairs.
Just for inspiration:
Sometimes you hear about situations "bet Turn and River even you guess the
opponent is not folding the Turn already...". How do you calculate this if you
think he is NEVER folding to the first bet?
Half Pot on 2 streets has to work 50%.
Example:
Pot 10$ --- we bet 5$ --- villain / opponent calls --- Pot 20$ --- we bet 10$
So we invested a total of 15$ as we have to think about both streets. But we
won the 10$ Pot + the 5$ he invested on the first bet aswell.
15 / (15+15) = 15 / 30 = 0.5 = 50%
Pot and half Pot has to work 55%
Pot and Pot has to work 66%
Pot and 130% Pot has to work 71%
Ask yourself IF and WHEN you could call such strong bets... maybe you will
work with that sooner or later :)
%Fold-Equity we need in different situations without any Hand-Equity!:
We bluff:
- Potsize --> we need 50% fold-equity
for example the Pot is 10$ --- we bluff 10$ --- if that works out in 50% we are
break even
- Half Potsize --> we need 33% him to fold
- double Potsize --> we need him 66% to fold which obviously looks very
strong too
-- 15% back from 8$ rake per hour = 1,20$ additional to 4,50 winrate
TOTAL
-- 20% back from 16$ rake per hour = 3,20$ additional to 4$ winrate
TOTAL
The calculations are reasonable because more rake means more % rakeback
in general because of the higher volume!
For what do you play? I play for $$$ in my pocket and i do NOT care about the
winrate...
You think a player is perfect if he plays 1 table with 10bb / 100 winrate?
I prefer a player with 1bb / 100 winrate on 8 tables as his hourly $ is much
higher.
THAT is just for the inspiration guys, do the calculation for yourself and check
how your winrate decrease on more tables --> maybe you become a losing
player with too many tables :))
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------------------------------------------------------If you like to support the stream and myself, i would be glad if you like to
register on a pokersite refered by me. You do count as a "student" then and
you only have advantages!
- produce a movie and we will watch that together to review
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manager / pokertracker with all the stuff we need
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cheers,
Bodo