Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
PRODUC
172200.0
211710.0
220160.0
222370.0
249610.0
281670.0
319760.0
320110.0
341030.0
386330.0
403540.0
433630.0
462300.0
471830.0
535650.0
578840.0
675400.0
813020.0
917140.0
1016000.
NA
EMPLEADOS
1179.000
1018.000
909.0000
930.0000
1668.000
1647.000
2096.000
2264.000
2170.000
2769.000
2976.000
3029.000
3480.000
3642.000
4151.000
4708.000
5614.000
6095.000
6660.000
6850.000
6860.000
FINANC
1636.000
2142.000
2135.000
3057.000
4214.000
5640.000
69048.00
62048.00
73876.00
84599.00
99050.00
124050.0
144850.0
158490.0
176786.0
196320.0
235340.0
281960.0
319250.0
372840.0
381030.0
MQAGRIC
38079.00
44511.00
52756.00
64143.00
80191.00
105390.0
133490.0
157980.0
185180.0
218230.0
254800.0
292210.0
332450.0
363680.0
398770.0
438290.0
480110.0
523490.0
566950.0
606070.0
701040.0
Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
451615.0
241154.3
23.84039
23.93996
900.6924
0.000000
Series: Residuals
Sample 1957 1976
Observations 20
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
Jarque-Bera
Probability
0
-75000 -50000 -25000
25000
50000
5.75E-11
-5190.772
71837.48
-58731.14
33755.63
0.349618
2.390372
0.717148
0.698672
75000
Autocorrelograma
0.041241
0.037366
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/05/01 Time: 15:18
Variable
C
X3
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
Coefficient
-84.24161
0.006877
0.632223
-0.089599
0.328700
0.202832
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
10080.81 -0.008357
0.9934
0.064244
0.107043
0.9161
0.250575
2.523086
0.0226
0.282255 -0.317439
0.7550
Mean dependent var
5.75E-11
S.D. dependent var
33755.63
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
30138.47
1.45E+10
-232.4185
1.966296
23.64185
23.84100
2.611456
0.087161
Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
0.0105
466321.1
238370.7
23.54272
23.69185
593.5336
0.000000
C
763834462.555
FINANC
-2701.72868633
AR(1)
1815.12782749
FINANC
-2701.72868633
0.0165085680324
-0.00382486585408
AR(1)
1815.12782749
-0.00382486585408
0.0437750893526
Coefficient
57961.32
123.2961
0.968297
0.966536
44114.93
3.50E+10
-241.2162
0.776543
Std. Error
t-Statistic
19472.43
2.976584
5.258464
23.44717
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Series: Residuals
Sample 1957 1976
Observations 20
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
4
3
2
1
Jarque-Bera
Probability
0
-50000
50000
100000
-1.82E-11
-5416.766
113460.3
-74745.72
42938.32
0.697315
3.740596
2.077896
0.353827
Prob.
0.0081
0.0000
451615.0
241154.3
24.32162
24.42120
549.7699
0.000000
a) Analice los resultados obtenidos, interprete los estadsticos de DurbinWatson y de Ljung Box, Bera- Jarque.
Luego de analizar los resultados se concluye que el modelo tiene problemas de
perturbaciones autocorrelacionadas.
DW = 0.777 Valores crticos al 5% son DL = 1.20
DU=1.41
QLB = 3.046 prob = 0.046 Existe correlacin de primer orden significativa
Prob.
0.0829
0.0000
265913.6
140979.4
24.04086
24.14028
227.5515
0.000000
Obs
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Actual
117794.
143984.
163105.
185967.
168224.
188978.
224341.
220033.
241948.
256326.
252238.
311531.
324406.
400451.
492205.
530956.
580358.
EMPLEADOS-0.475*EMPLEADOS(-1)
-127511.2
68.05637
23039.2
-41368.9
23989.3
-10266.0
-22374.5
20007.6
-24727.8
-19387.8
8167.89
-30446.3
-28035.4
-22508.2
-48860.6
-52637.4
32813.5
29685.4
88841.7
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b1) Escriba el modelo para la produccin agrcola, con los coeficientes de MCG
Modelo en cuasi diferencia:
y t y t 1 1 (1 ) 2 ( x1t x1t 1 ) t t 1
y t* 1* 2* x1*t v t
32753.62
1* 32753.62 luego 1
62387.8476
1 0.475
2* 124.444 2
127511.2
68.05637
S 21
S 2
*
1
(1 )
S
1
*
1
(1 )
3.16 E 08
1146485261
(1 0.475) 2
127511.2
242878.4762
(1 0.475)
242878.4762
68.05637
b3) Obtenga una prediccin puntual e intervlica para 1977 si Empleados = 6860
YT h E (YT h / T ) X T h h eT
L YT h t1 / 2 X T h V ( ) X T h v2 ( 2( h1) 2( h 2 ) ... 2 1)
Prediccin puntual
Prediccin intervlica
L YT 1 t 1 / 2
X T' 1V ( ) X T 1 1
X T 1 V ( ) X T 1 v2
6860
1146485261
242878.4762
1016898117
242878.4762 1
68.05637 6860
t0.975(17) = 2.11
EMPLEADOS
-682628.4
820.9681
-3.924890
-7.373468
MQAGRIC
79.84679
-3.924890
0.063682
-0.037575
FINANC
10867.50
-7.373468
-0.037575
0.187815
Prob.
0.0000
0.0271
0.0129
0.0002
451615.0
241154.3
23.59356
23.79270
420.2195
0.000000
10
Series: Residuals
Sample 1957 1976
Observations 20
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
6
4
3.97E-11
2553.024
63108.35
-52960.45
26997.13
0.124209
3.156167
2
Jarque-Bera
Probability
0
-75000 -50000 -25000
25000
50000
Probability
Probability
0.071750
0.964761
75000
0.249385
0.232243