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25
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, The Open University of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka,
Email: rzuthakaran650@gmail.com
2
Department of Engineering Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka,
Email: kanthip@pdn.ac.lk
3
Department of Civil Engineering, The Open University of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka, Email: tomwiks@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
This paper presents a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curve for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 years return
periods for Colombo region. Annual peak rainfall values for different durations such as 1, 2, 4, 6, 12 and 24 hours
were extracted for the purpose of this analysis. Then these values were fitted to Log Pearson type III (LP3) and
Gumbel Extreme Value (EV1) distribution. Subsequently, the best fitted distribution for a particular duration was
selected based on the goodness-of-tests approach. LP3 distribution was found to be the best fitted distribution for 1,
4, 6 and 24 hours duration of annual peak precipitation while, EV1 was the most appropriate distribution for other
durations such as 2 and 12 hours. Further, the IDF curve was developed for Colombo region and it is recommended
for the predication of maximum rainfall intensities.
Keywords: Return Period, Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve, Probability Distribution, Goodness-of-Tests
1. INTRODUCTION
2. METHODOLOGY
A
rainfall
intensity-duration-frequency
(IDF)
relationship is the most commonly used method for
designing and planning of various water resource
projects stated by Chow and Maidment [3]. The IDF is a
kind of mathematical relationships between the rainfall
intensity, duration and the return period. This
relationship can be determined through statistical
analysis of rainfall data collected from the corresponding
stations.
Where,
transformed data and
and
is coefficient of skew of the logis standard normal variable.
is Finally, the rainfall depth , for a given return period (T) was
estimated using the following equation.
Where, mean
and standard deviation
of the maximum
rainfall depth of a given period and
is the rainfall frequency
factor for a given return period.
Selected
Distribution
Duration
(hr)
AIC
85.70
BIC
86.50
A-D
0.622
AIC
79.39
BIC
80.59
A-D
0.377
92.82
93.61
0.118
94.80
96.00
0.197
EV1
108.5
109.3
0.798
100.2
101.4
0.044
LP3
113.5
114.3
0.239
113.3
114.5
0.198
LP3
12
116.8
117.6
0.101
118.0
119.2
0.088
EV1
24
130.0
130.8
1.010
122.6
123.8
0.122
LP3
LP3
It is obvious, from
when
, the The Table 1 shows the results of the GOF tests for annual
frequency factor is equal to the standard maximum rainfall in Colombo. It can be clearly seen, both LP3 and
SAITM Research Symposium on Engineering Advancements 2014
(SAITM RSEA 2014)
F
0.5
0.9
2 hr
0.1
GUMBEL
LP3
2
10
GUMBEL
LP3
0.1
F
0.5
0.9
1 hr
20
20 30
x
F
0.5
0.1
GUMBEL
LP3
GUMBEL
LP3
0.1
F
0.5
0.9
6 hr
0.9
4 hr
50
18.01
31.52
45.67
62.88
82.04
118.86
28.53
44.88
68.72
94.2
119.29
178.61
10
35.49
53.72
83.98
114.94
143.95
218.17
20
42.17
62.2
98.62
134.83
167.61
256.12
50
50.82
73.18
117.57
160.58
198.23
305.24
100
57.3
81.41
131.77
179.87
221.17
342.04
200
63.76
89.6
145.92
199.09
244.04
378.72
1 hr
50
100
24 hr
F
0.5
GUMBEL
LP3
0.1
F
0.5
0.1
GUMBEL
LP3
2 hr
200
0.9
12 hr
0.9
Depth,mm
100 200 300
100
x
Depth,mm
100 200 300
50
50 100
200
Return Period, yrs
4 hr
200
x
6 hr
400
Depth,mm
100 200 300
100
50 100
200
Return Period, yrs
12 hr
50 100
200
Return Period, yrs
24 hr
Depth,mm
100 200 300
200
Depth,mm
100 200 300
100
x
Depth,mm
100 200 300
50
50 100
200
Return Period, yrs
50 100
200
Return Period, yrs
50 100
200
Return Period, yrs
18.01
15.76
11.42
10.48
6.84
4.95
28.53
22.44
17.18
15.70
9.94
7.44
10
35.49
26.86
21.00
19.16
12.00
9.09
20
42.17
31.10
24.66
22.47
13.97
10.67
50
50.82
36.59
29.39
26.76
16.52
12.72
100
57.30
40.70
32.94
29.98
18.43
14.25
200
63.76
44.80
36.48
33.18
20.34
15.78
60
2yr
5yr
10yr
20yr
50yr
100yr
200yr
10
10
15
Duration (hr)
20
25