Geopolitics of a Scottish Independence Referendum: A sight on Scotlands future

Key words: Scotland, independence, geopolitics, referendum

The current year has been especially remarkable for IR analyses around the globe,
with some notorious examples such as the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, the emerging of
Islamic State in Iraq, the spreading of Ebola virus in some West African countries, and
other issues that generated geopolitical risks in several countries in the world. In a few
hours, a new event in history could be added this year: the Independence of Scotland.
For a better understanding as of how this would affect Scotland and its neighbors
geopolitics, a briefing from history is compulsory, starting from the origins of Scotland as a
State during the period before the Act of Union (1707) which resulted in its absorption by
England, creating thus the United Kingdom. Scotland rose as a State halfway through the
Wars of Independence, when Scottish noblemen sent the Declaration of Arbroath to the
Pope in 1320; along the period between the Declaration of Arbroath and the Act of Union,
the House of Bruce ruled for a short period of time before turning its power to the House of
Stuart, when Robert II took the throne in 1371, making the Kingdom of Scotland to
progress from a poor feudal country into a modern, more prosperous and centralized State.
The Stuart dynasty later tried to expand territorially by founding a colony in Panamas
isthmus between 1698 and 1700. However, Scots were markedly disadvantaged in both
the British Isles and the colonies by reinforced Navigation Acts (Macinnes, 2008; 116).
That marked the end of Scotland as an independent State, along with the relative
conflict Scots had with England, despite the establishment of a common monarchy years
before the Scottish colonial adventure in Panama, and the creation of the National Debt in
1693 that was financed through the Bank of England from 1694 (Macinnes, 2008; 116).
Even if the illicit Scottish trading activities didnt end after the Act of Union, Scotland had
expended between a quarter and a half of its own wealth on that colonial adventure, and
English investors compensation became one of the conditions declared in the Act that
created the United Kingdom, at the expenses of Scotlands total loss of sovereignty.

More than three hundred years later, Scotland is now facing a new claim for
independency from the Union, by the initiative of Alex Salmond, Scotlands main Minister
and head of regional separatist movement. But this controversial electoral process in
which the latest polls showed that adversaries to Scottish independence are a majority
would result in some negative effects for Scotland itself, regarding its geopolitical risks in
front of some international hazards. Just the fact that Scotland is going to separate from a
State which is also a nuclear power, would expose Scottish territorial integrity to any other
countrys attack in the future, even from the United Kingdom itself; however, if the Scottish
new State takes a wise direction in foreign policy, it could appeal to any kind of integration
with the UK such as the Commonwealth so Scotland would still be profiting from British
protection, even within its nuclear umbrella. After all, the historical legacy between
Scotland and the rest of Great Britain is even stronger nowadays.
Another geopolitical issue to be considered here is the possibility of Scotland to join
the European Union, which is constituted by some States which also have separatist
movements inside their internal policies. This is the reason why Spain, Belgium, Italy, and
Romany would adopt a position against an eventual Scottish integration to the EU, due to
their good amounts of power and influence inside the EU system. On the other hand, even
if Scotland takes a lot of time in taking its sovereignty legitimacy in front of some UE
members, the fact that it would be a non-hazardous country in the international system may
be helpful at the moment of acquiring reconnaissance from other countries outside the EU
system, and an eventual acceptance in NATO system would depend on how Scotland deals
with its foreign policy in front of its members, mainly the United Kingdom which is one of
NATO founders.
If Scottish referendum leads to a Yes in a few hours, it will trigger some processes
which would make Scotland not only geopolitically exposed in the future, but it will also
have to deal with hard decisions that would make it even more dependant to the
Commonwealth or any other allied country in the international system if Scottish
government eventually gets any. So, is it really convenient to Scotland to get its total
independency?