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About Statistics:
Illustration 1.
Shift the trend origin from 2002 to 2004 in the following trend equation:
Yc = 20 (1.5)x
Given that the unit of time = 1 Year.
Solution
Here, the trend equation is an exponential one, which is to be shifted forward by 2 years i.e.
from 2002 to 2004.
Hence, K = 2
By the formula of trend shifting we have,
Yc = abX + k
Substituting the given values in the above we have,
Yc = 20 (1.5)
X+2
= 20 (1.5)2 (1.5)x
= 20 2.25 (1.5)X
= 45 (1.5)X
Hence, the required trend equation is Yc = 45 (1.5)X
Where, the origin of X is shifted to 2004.
Illustration 2.
The parabolic trend equation for the sales (000 Rs.) of a company is given below:
Yc = 20.4 1.5X + 0.6X2
Shift the trend origin from 1999 to 2004 given that the time unit is 1 year.
Solution
Here, the trend origin is to be shifted forward by 5 years i.e. from 1999 to 2004. Hence, K =
5
By the formula of shifting a trend we have,
Yc = a b (X + K) + c ( X + K )2
(it is a parabolic equation of the given order.)
Substituting the respective values in the above we have,
Yc
Hence, the shifted trend equation is Yc = 27.9 + 4.5X + 0.6X2 given that the trend origin is
shifted to 2004.
Illustration 3.
Shift the trend origin from 2003 to 1st Jan 04 in the linear equation, Yc = 14.5 + 0.4X,
given that unit of time = 1 year.
Solution
Here, the origin 2003 means 1st July 03 ( the middle part of the year).
Hence, the origin is to be shifted forward by only
1
2
Thus, K =1/2
By the formula of shifting a trend we have,
Yc
= a + b (X + k)
= 14.5 + 0.4X
= 14.7 + 0.4X
Yc =
12
12 12
Yc =
24
12
1 .8
144
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or
Yc =2 + 0.0125X
Illustration 5
Convert the following monthly trend equation into the annual one:
Yc = 2 + 0.0125X
Solution
By the formula of conversion of a monthly trend into an annual one we have,
Yc = a 12 bX (12 12)
Substituting the respective values in the above we get,
Yc = 2 12 + 0.0125 144 or
Yc = 24 + 1.8X
Where, X unit = 1 Year, and Y unit = annual sales.
Note. The above answer may be compared with the respective values of the annual
equation given in the illustration 22.
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