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Habitat International
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/habitatint
Greenhouse gas emission reduction options for cities: Finding the Coincidence
of Agendas between local priorities and climate change mitigation objectives
Hari Bansha Dulal*, Sameer Akbar
The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA
a b s t r a c t
Keywords:
Greenhouse gas
Cities
Climate change mitigation
Co-benets
Synergies
Developing countries
Cities are the major contributors to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. They account for about 75%
of global energy consumption and up to 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. With the ongoing rapid
increase in urban population, expansion of middle class in urban centers in developing countries, and
availability of cheaper vehicles such as Tata Nano and Bajaj RE60 in India, the demand for energy and
associated emissions from cities are expected to grow rapidly. Though cities are in a better position to
mitigate climate change, it does not necessary mean that there is a willingness on their part to capitalize
on these mitigation opportunities. Climate change mitigation is not the priority for them because they
face a number of competing priorities including local economic growth and development and service
delivery. This paper suggests a range of policy tools that can help cities achieve both local priorities as
well as reduce emissions, including GHGs. The suggested policies will be effective when used
synergistically.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Introduction
Even though urban areas constitute less than 3% of the worlds
livable land area, approximately 50% of the worlds population today
lives in urban areas. By 2030, 60% of the worlds population will be
living in cities. The share of urban population will have grown to 75%
by 2050 (Mills, 2007; UN, 2007). The urbanized area has increased in
almost every developing country. The urbanized area of the city of
Yazd, Iran, increased from 1843 ha in 1975 to 13,802 ha in 2009
(Shahraki et al., 2011). Between 1989 and 2009, the builteup area in
the Greater Asmara Area (GAA), the capital of Eritrea, has tripled
(Tewolde & Cabral, 2011). The surface area of Mexican city of Guadalajara grew 1.5 times faster than the population between 1970 and
2000. Similar is the case in Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar;
Cairo, the capital of Egypt; and Mexico City, the capital of Mexico;
Johannesburg, South Africa (UNHABITAT, 2010). As urbanization
tends to increase with socio-economic development, the levels of
urbanization are generally projected to rise in developing countries
in the future. By 2030, the less developed regions are expected to
have 56% of their population living in urban areas, which is about
three times the proportion they had in 1950 (18%) (UN, 2006).
The ongoing rapid urbanization has already led to tremendous
increase in energy consumption and associated emissions. In India,
for example, the use of diesel in the transport sector has increased
from 73% of the total in 1991 to 81% in 2000 (Zhou & McNeil, 2009).
If the current trend is to continue, motorized trafc volume in India
would reach 130,000 billion passenger kilometers. Compared to the
year 2000, this would result in a ve-fold increase in energy
demand and carbon emissions in transport by 2020 (Singh, 2006).
The trend is quite similar in many developing countries and
emerging economies. In Malaysia, from 6.8 million vehicles in 1995,
the motor vehicle ownership increased to 18 million, in 2008. With
an annual growth rate of 7.78%, it almost tripled in a little more
than a decade. The transport sector alone accounts for 35.5% of the
total energy consumption in Malaysia (Ong, Mahlia, & Masjuki,
2011). Under business as usual (BAU) scenario, direct energy
demand and GHG emissions from the road transport is expected to
reach 734 million tons of oil equivalent and 2384 million tons
carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in China. The projected increase
is 5.6 times more than the 2007 level (Ou, Zhang, & Chang, 2010).
In reality, the increase in emissions could be much higher than
the one projected by BAU scenario. BAU scenarios often do not take
into consideration social and cultural changes that are actually
happening in many developing countries. In India, for instance,
because of the social status attached to vehicle ownership, households have started owning more than one private vehicle. In future,
they may be in a position to afford a vehicle for each and every
member of the household. If that were to happen, GHG emissions
would be much higher than projected under BAU scenario. It is not
only the transport sector, where the demand for energy is growing.
101
Table 1
Ranking of selected megacities based on total suspended particulate emission and
road travel speed.
Megacities in 2000
Total suspended
particulates (mg m3)
Rank
Rank
Tokyo
Mexico City
New York e Newark
So Paulo
Mumbai (Bombay)
Kolkata (Calcutta)
Shanghai
Buenos Aires
Delhi
Los Angeles - Long
Beach - Santa Ana
Osaka e Kobe
Jakarta
Beijing
Rio de Janeiro
Cairo
Dhaka
Moscow
Karachi
40 [15]
201 [10]
27 [18]
53 [14]
243 [9]
312 [6]
246 [8]
185 [11]
405 [4]
39 [16]
16.2
14.0
23.9
15.0
13.8
na
12.4
18.6
14.4
29.5
[9]
[6]
[14]
[8]
[5]
34 [17]
271 [7]
377 [5]
139 [13]
593 [2]
516 [3]
150 [12]
668 [1]
20.5
11.6
11.1
18.6
12.4
na
18.6
na
[13]
[2]
[1]
[10]
[3]
[4]
[10]
[7]
[15]
[10]
Fig. 1. Costs for reducing health impacts from air pollution by 50% (bn V in 2030).
Source: Amann et al. (2010).
102
103
104
Table 2
Selected energy efciency measures.
Measure
Status
Estimated annual
cost Savings
Estimated implementation
cost
Payback
Existing
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Planned
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Negligible
Negligible
3793 tons
780 tons
136 tons
55 tons
378 tons
72 tons
Negligible
5214 tons
$1500
$3773
$819,392
$44,423
$64,901
$14,489
$55,000
$0
$146,678
$1,150,156
$1785
$4480
$5000
$2000
$0
$0
$300,000
$5545
$77,632
$396,442
1.2 years
1.2 years
0 years
0 years
0 years
0 years
5.5 years
0 years
0 years
105
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