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Chapter15
MonetaryPolicy
.1
15.1 TheGoalsofMonetaryPolicy(pages443446)
DescribetheGoalsofMonetaryPolicy.
TheFedhasmanygoalsformonetarypolicy,includingpricestability,highemployment,
economicgrowth,stabilityoffinancialmarketsandinstitutions,interestratestability,andforeign
exchangemarketstability.
15.2 MonetaryPolicyToolsandtheFederalFundsRate(pages446452)
UnderstandhowtheFedusesmonetarypolicytoolstoinfluencethefederalfundsrate.
AlthoughtheFedsetsatargetforthefederalfundsrate,theactualrateisdeterminedbythe
interactionofdemandandsupplyforbankreservesinthefederalfundsmarket.
Toanalyzethedeterminantsofthefederalfundsrate,weneedtoexaminethebankingsystems
demandforandtheFedssupplyofreserves.
Thoughothertoolsareavailable,theFedusesopenmarketoperationstohititstargetforthe
federalfundsrate.
15.3 MoreontheFedsMonetaryPolicyTools(pages452458)
Tracehowtheimportanceofdifferentmonetarypolicytoolshavechangedovertime.
OpenmarketoperationshavetraditionallybeentheFedspreferredtoolinconductingmonetarypolicy.
DiscountpolicywasusedextensivelyinresponsetotheFinancialCrisisof20072009.
Interestonreservesisanewtoolintroducedduringtherecentfinancialcrisis.
15.4 MonetaryTargetingandMonetaryPolicy(pages459470)
Explaintheroleofmonetarytargetinginmonetarypolicy.
Traditionally,theFedhasreliedontwotypesoftargets:(1)policyinstruments,sometimescalled
operatingtargets,and(2)intermediatetargets;thisisnolongerthefavoredapproach.
TheTaylorrulesummarizesthefactorstypicallyusedinsettingatargetforthefederalfundsrate.
Inflationtargetinghasbecomeanincreasinglypopularapproachtomonetarypolicy,particularly
beforetherecentfinancialcrisis.
Althoughthereareinstitutionaldifferencesinthewaysinwhichcentralbanksconductmonetary
policy,mostuseshortterminterestratesasapolicyinstrumenttoachieveanultimategoalsuch
aslowinflation.
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.2
DiscountpolicyThepolicytoolofsettingthe
discountrateandthetermsofdiscountlending.
PrimarycreditDiscountloansavailabletohealthy
banksexperiencingtemporaryliquidityproblems.
DiscountwindowThemeansbywhichtheFed
makesdiscountloanstobanks,servingasthe
channelformeetingtheliquidityneedsofbanks.
QuantitativeeasingAcentralbankpolicythat
attemptstostimulatetheeconomybybuying
longtermsecurities.
EconomicgrowthIncreasesintheeconomys
outputofgoodsandservicesovertime;agoalof
monetarypolicy.
ReserverequirementTheregulationrequiring
bankstoholdafractionofcheckabledepositsas
vaultcashordepositswiththeFed.
FederalfundsrateTheinterestratethatbanks
chargeeachotheronveryshorttermloans;
determinedbythedemandandsupplyfor
reservesinthefederalfundsmarket.
SeasonalcreditDiscountloanstosmallerbanks
inareaswhereagricultureortourismisimportant.
OpenmarketoperationsTheFederalReserves
purchasesandsalesofsecurities,usuallyU.S.
Treasurysecurities,infinancialmarkets.
TaylorruleAmonetarypolicyguideline
developedbyeconomistJohnTaylorfor
determiningthetargetforthefederalfundsrate.
SecondarycreditDiscountloanstobanksthatare
noteligibleforprimarycredit.
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.3
Chapter Outline
BernankesDilemma
Duringthefinancialcrisisof20072009,theFedundertookextraordinarypolicyactionstokeepthe
financialsystemfromimploding.Unfortunately,asBernanketestifiedbeforeCongressinlateJuly2010,
theeconomywasrecoveringataslowerratethantheFedhadhoped.
15.1 The Goals of Monetary Policy (pages 443446)
LearningObjective:DescribetheGoalsofMonetaryPolicy.
A. PriceStability
Inflation,orpersistentlyrisingprices,erodesthevalueofmoneyasamediumofexchangeand
asaunitofaccount. Inamarketeconomy,inwhichpricescommunicateinformationabout
costsandaboutdemandforgoodsandservicestohouseholdsandfirms,inflationmakesprices
lessusefulassignalsforresourceallocation. Severeinflationinflictsevengreatereconomic
costs.
B. HighEmployment
Highemployment,oralowrateofunemployment,isanotherkeymonetarypolicygoal.
Unemployedworkersandunderusedfactoriesandmachinesloweroutput.Unemployment
causesfinancialdistressforworkerswholackjobs. AlthoughtheFediscommittedtohigh
employment,itdoesnotseekazeropercentrateofunemployment. Instead,theFedattemptsto
reducelevelsofcyclicalunemployment,whichisunemploymentassociatedwithbusinesscycle
recessions.
C. EconomicGrowth
Policymakersseeksteadyeconomicgrowth,orincreasesintheeconomysoutputofgoodsand
servicesovertime.Economicgrowthprovidestheonlysourceofsustainedrealincreasesin
householdincomes. Policymakersattempttoencouragestableeconomicgrowthbecausea
stablebusinessenvironmentallowsfirmsandhouseholdstoplanaccuratelyandencouragesthe
longterminvestmentthatisneededtosustaingrowth.
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D. StabilityofFinancialMarketsandInstitutions
Thestabilityoffinancialmarketsandinstitutionsmakespossibletheefficientmatchingof
saversandborrowers.ThefinancialcrisisledtoreneweddebateoverwhethertheFedshould
takeactiontoforestallassetpricebubblessuchasthoseassociatedwiththedotcomboomon
theU.S.stockmarketinthelate1990sandtheU.S.housingmarketinthe2000s.
E. InterestRateStability
Likefluctuationsinpricelevels,fluctuationsininterestratesmakeplanningandinvestment
decisionsdifficultforhouseholdsandfirms. Inaddition,sharpinterestratefluctuationscause
problemsforbanksandotherfinancialfirms.
F. ForeignExchangeMarketStability
Astabledollarsimplifiesplanningforcommercialandfinancialtransactions. Inaddition,
fluctuationsinthedollarsvaluechangetheinternationalcompetitivenessofU.S.industry.
15.2 Monetary Policy Tools and the Federal Funds Rate (pages 446452)
LearningObjective:UnderstandhowtheFedusesmonetarypolicytoolstoinfluencethefederal
fundsrate.
TheFedstraditionalpolicytoolsincludeopenmarketoperations,discountpolicy,andreserve
requirements.Duringthefinancialcrisis,theFedaddednewtoolsincludinginterestonreserve
balancesandtermdepositfacility.
A. TheFederalFundsMarketandtheFedsTargetFederalFundsRate
AlthoughtheFedsetsatargetforthefederalfundsrate,theactualrateisdeterminedbythe
interactionofdemandandsupplyforbankreservesinthefederalfundsmarket.Toanalyzethe
determinantsofthefederalfundsrate,weneedtoexaminethebankingsystemsdemandforand
theFedssupplyofreserves. Banksdemandreservesbothtomeettheirlegalobligationtohold
requiredreservesandbecausetheymaywishtoholdexcessreservestomeettheirshortterm
liquidityneeds.TheFedsuppliesborrowedreserves,intheformofdiscountloans,and
nonborrowedreserves,throughopenmarketoperations.
Teaching Tips
Itmayprovebeneficialtospendalittleextratimedevelopingthegraphofthefederalfundsmarket,Figure15.1
onpage447.Studentscaneasilyglossoveritandtreatitasaregularsupplyanddemandgraph(i.e.,upward
slopingsupplycurve).Makingitclearthatthesupplycurveisverticalduetothesupplyofreservesbeing
independentofthefederalfundsrateduetotheFedscontroloverreservesshouldhelpstudentsunderstandthe
concept.Also,carefulexplanationastothereasoningbehindthehorizontalportionsofeachcurvewillhelp
studentsgainabetterunderstandingoftheuniqueshapesofthesupplyanddemandforreserves
(comparedtothecurvesthattheyhaveseenbefore).
B. OpenMarketOperationsandtheFedsTargetfortheFederalFundsRate
TheFedusesopenmarketoperationstohititstargetforthefederalfundsrate.Anopenmarket
purchaseincreasesthesupplyofreserves,whichdecreasesthefederalfundsrate.
C. TheEffectofChangesintheDiscountRateandinReserveRequirements
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Typically,theFedhasraisedorloweredthediscountrateatthesametimethatitraisesor
lowersthetargetforthefederalfundsrate.Asaresult,changesinthediscountratehaveno
independenteffectonthefederalfundsrate. TheFedrarelychangestherequiredreserveratio.
Iftheotherfactorsunderlyingthedemandandsupplycurvesforreservesareheldconstant,an
increaseintherequiredreserveratioincreasesthedemandforreservesbecausebankshaveto
holdmorereserves,resultinginahigherfederalfundsrate.
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Teaching Tips
Thoughthefirstroundofquantitativeeasingwasgenerallysupportedbymosteconomists,thesecond
roundannouncedinNovember2010wasmuchmorecontroversial.Opponentsseeitasanewapproachto
monetarypolicywiththeriskofsignificantlyhigherinflationwithouteffectivelystimulatingeconomic
growth.Manyseeitasmonetizingthenationaldebt.Supportersofthepolicybasicallystatethatitisan
extensionofthetraditionaluseofopenmarketoperationsinthattheFednormallyconductsopenmarket
purchasestostimulatetheeconomywhenitisperceivedtobetooweak.Thedifferenceisthatthiswas
typicallyevidencedbyadeclineinthefederalfundsrate.Inthiscase,sincethefederalfundsrateis
alreadynearzero,itisevidencedbyanincreaseintheFedsbalancesheetorthemonetarybase.Have
studentsevaluatethetwosidesofthedebatetobetterunderstandwhattherealitiesofquantitativeeasing
inthecontextoftheeconomyoflate2010.
B. DiscountPolicy
Since1980,alldepositoryinstitutionshavehadaccesstothediscountwindow.TheFeds
discountloanstobanksfallintothreecategories:primarycredit,secondarycredit,andseasonal
credit. Primarycreditisavailabletohealthybankswithadequatecapitalandsupervisory
ratings.Secondarycreditisintendedforbanksthatarenoteligibleforprimarycreditbecause
theyhaveinadequatecapitalorlowsupervisoryratings. Seasonalcreditconsistsoftemporary,
shorttermloanstosatisfyseasonalrequirementsofsmallerbanksingeographicareaswhere
agricultureortourismisimportant.Duringthefinancialcrisisof20072009,theFedsetupa
varietyoftemporarylendingfacilities.
C. InterestonReserveBalances
PayinginterestonreservebalancesgivestheFedanothermonetarypolicytool.Byincreasing
theinterestrate,theFedcanincreasethelevelofreservesbanksarewillingtohold,thereby
restrainingbanklendingandincreasesinthemoneysupply.
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D. InflationTargeting
Withinflationtargeting,acentralbankpublicallysetsanexplicittargetfortheinflationrate
overaperiodoftime,andthegovernmentandthepublicthenjudgetheperformanceofthe
centralbankonthebasisofitssuccessinhittingthetarget. ArgumentsinfavoroftheFedusing
anexplicitinflationtargetfocusonfourpoints:First,announcingexplicittargetsforinflation
woulddrawthepublicsattentiontowhattheFedcanactuallyachieveinpractice. Second,the
establishmentoftransparentinflationtargetsfortheUnitedStateswouldprovideananchorfor
inflationaryexpectations. Third,announcedinflationtargetswouldhelpinstitutionalizeeffective
U.S.monetarypolicy.Finally,inflationtargetswouldpromoteaccountabilityfortheFedby
providingayardstickagainstwhichitsperformancecouldbemeasured. Opponentsofinflation
targetsalsomakefourpoints:First,rigidnumericaltargetsforinflationdiminishtheflexibility
ofmonetarypolicytoaddressotherpolicygoals.Second,becausemonetarypolicyinfluences
inflationwithalag,inflationtargetingrequiresthattheFeddependonforecastsoffutureinflation,
uncertaintyaboutwhichcancreateproblemsfortheconductofpolicy.Third,holdingtheFed
accountableonlyforagoaloflowinflationmaymakeitmoredifficultforelectedofficialsto
monitortheFedssupportforgoodeconomicpolicyoverall.Finally,uncertaintyaboutfuture
levelsofoutputandemploymentcanimpedeeconomicdecisionmakinginthepresenceofan
inflationtarget.
E. InternationalComparisonsofMonetaryPolicy
Althoughthereareinstitutionaldifferencesinthewaysinwhichcentralbanksconductmonetary
policy,therearetwoimportantsimilaritiesinrecentpractices.First,mostcentralbanksinindustrial
countrieshaveincreasinglyusedshortterminterestratessimilartothefederalfundsratein
theUnitedStatesasthepolicyinstrument,oroperatingtarget,throughwhichgoalsarepursued.
Second,manycentralbanksarefocusingmoreonultimategoalssuchaslowinflationthanon
particularintermediatetargets.
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2.
TheFederalReservewouldbeunderlesspressuretobuyTreasurysecurities,whichwouldlessenthe
likelihoodofanincreaseintheinflationrateinthefuture.Anadditionalbenefitwouldresultiftheprivate
sectorrespondedtothisdevelopmentbyincreasinginvestmentandemployment.Butprojectionsoffuture
deficitsdifferfromactualdeficits.If,forexample,Congressandthepresidentreachedagreementona
budgetthatwasexpectedtoreducedeficitsbyraisingtaxesonbusinesses,thiswouldhaveanegative
impactoninvestmentandemployment.Theresultcouldbelowertaxrevenueandgreateractual
deficits.Cutsinspendingprograms,ratherthanhighertaxes,wouldlikelyhaveapositiveimpacton
businessspending,butpoliticaloppositionmakesspendingcutsdifficulttoachieve.
Thegraphshowsthattheinitialinterestrateonbankreservedeposits,irb1,israisedtoirb2.Thenew,
higherequilibriuminterestrateonfederalfunds,iff2,isequaltotheinterestrateonbankreserve
deposits.TheFedincreasesinterestrateswithoutchangingitstargetforbankreserves.
Monetarypolicyaimstoadvancetheeconomicwellbeingofthecountryscitizens.Economic
wellbeingistypicallydeterminedbythequantityandqualityofgoodsandservicesthat
individualscanenjoy.
1.2 a. Pricestabilitymeansastableoverallpricelevelthroughouttheeconomyandisofteninterpreted
aslowandsteadyinflation.
b. Highemploymentmeansalowrateofunemploymentequaltothenaturalrateofunemployment.
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c. Economicgrowthmeansincreasesintheeconomysoutputofgoodsandservicesovertime.
d. Stabilityoffinancialmarketsandinstitutionsreferstofinancialmarketsandinstitutionsworking
tomatchsaversandborrowerswithoutpanicsandexcessiveclosures.
e. Interestratestabilitymeansstableinterestrates.
f. Foreignexchangemarketstabilitymeanslimitedfluctuationsintheforeignexchangevalueof
thedollar.
1.3
TheFedseekstoreducecyclicalunemployment.TheFeddoesnotseektoreducethe
unemploymentratetozerobecausethetoolsofmonetarypolicyareaimedataffectingeconomic
conditionsthroughouttheeconomyandareineffectiveinreducingthelevelsoffrictionaland
structuralunemployment.
1.4
Interestratesrepresentthecostofborrowingbyfirmsandhouseholds.Fluctuatinginterestrates
makeinvestmentdecisionsbyfirmsandhouseholdsmoredifficultbecausethecostofborrowing
becomesmoreuncertain.
1.5
Excessfluctuationsintheforeignexchangevalueofthedollarwouldmakeitdifficulttoknow
thecostofyourproductsabroad,thecostofimportedintermediategoods,anddollarvalueof
foreignassets.
1.6
Theseverityofthe20072009financialcrisisandresultingrecessionhasputthemonetary
policygoalofstabilityoffinancialmarketsandinstitutionsfrontandcenter.Untilrecently,most
economistsprobablyconsideredpricestabilitytobetheFedstoppriority.
Deflation,justlikeinflation,complicatestheabilitytodistinguishoverallpricechangesfrom
relativepricechanges,whichdetermineresourceallocation.Unanticipateddeflation
redistributesincomejustasunanticipatedinflationdoes,aswhenborrowerssufferlossesfrom
unanticipateddeflation.
1.8
Foritsgoalofhighemployment,theFedseeksanunemploymentrateequaltothenaturalrateof
unemploymentwithzerocyclicalunemployment.TheFedwouldneedtobeawareofchangesin
thenaturalrateofunemploymentinordertoknowifcyclicalunemploymentexistsornot.
1.9
Nominalinterestratesincludeaninflationpremium.Thenominalinterestrateequalsthereal
interestrateplustheexpectedinflationrate.Highandvariableinflationratesleadtohighand
variablenominalinterestrates.
1.10
Inthelongrunforeignexchangeratesdependuponinflationratedifferentialsacrosscountries.
TheforeignexchangevalueoftheU.S.dollarwilldeclineandfluctuateastheU.S.inflationrate
risesandfluctuates.
1.11
IftheexchangeratebetweentheJapaneseyenandtheU.S.dollarchangesfrom85$1to95$1,
theU.S.dollarwouldhaveappreciatedandU.S.industrieswillbelesscompetitiverelativetoJapanese
industries.TheappreciationofthedollarmakesU.S.exportsmoreexpensiveandJapanese
importstotheU.S.cheaper.
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TheFedsthreetraditionalmonetarypolicytoolsareopenmarketoperations,discountpolicy,
andreserverequirements.Openmarketoperationsisthepurchaseorsaleofsecurities,typically
U.S.Treasurysecurities,infinancialmarkets.Discountpolicyissettingthediscountrateandthe
termsofdiscountlending.Thereserverequirementisregulationrequiringbankstoholda
fractionofcheckabledepositsasvaultcashordepositswiththeFed.Themostimportantofthe
threetoolsisopenmarketoperations.
2.2
ThetwonewpolicytoolsavailabletotheFedaretheinterestrateonreservebalancesandthe
termdepositfacility.
2.3
Thefinancialassettradedisbankreserves.Thefederalfundsrateistheinterestratethatbanks
chargeeachotheronveryshorttermloans,whereasthediscountrateistheinterestratethatthe
FederalReservechargesbanksonloans.
2.4
TheFOMCistheFederalOpenMarketCommitteeoftheFederalReserve.TheFOMC
determinesthetargetforthefederalfundsrateanddirectsthebuyingandsellingofsecuritiesin
ordertoreachthefederalfundsratetarget.
2.5
Banksdemandreservesbothtomeettheirlegalobligationtoholdrequiredreservesandtheir
desiretoholdexcessreservestomeettheirshorttermliquidityneeds.Anincreaseinthefederal
fundsratedecreasesthequantityofreservesdemanded.Asthefederalfundsrateincreases,the
opportunitycosttobanksofholdingexcessreservesincreasesbecausethereturntheycouldearn
fromlendingoutthosereservesgoesup.Thedemandcurveforreservesbecomesperfectly
elasticattheinterestratetheFedpaysonbanksreservebalances.
2.6
ThesupplyofreservesisdeterminedbytheFedsupplyingnonborrowedreserves,throughopen
marketoperations,andborrowedreservesintheformofdiscountloans.Thediscountratesetsa
ceilingonthefederalfundsrate,causingthesupplycurveforreservestobecomehorizontal.
Bankswouldnotpayahigherinterestratetoborrowfromotherbanksthanthediscountrate
theycanpaytoborrowfromtheFed.
IfthefederalfundsratewasbelowtheinterestratetheFedpaysonbankreserves,thenbanks
wouldborrowatthelowerfederalfundsrateanddepositthefundsintheirreservebalancesat
theFedandearnariskfreereturn.Competitionamongbankstoobtainthefundstocarryout
thisriskfreearbitragewouldforceupthefederalfundsratetotheratetheFedpaysonbanks
reservebalances.
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2.8
a. Adecreaseintherequiredreserveratiowoulddecreasethedemandforreserves.
b. Adecreaseinthediscountratewouldlowertheinterestrateatwhichthesupplyforreserves
becomeshorizontal.
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c. Adecreaseintheinterestratepaidonreserveswouldlowertheinterestrateatwhichthe
demandcurvebecomeshorizontal.
d. Anopenmarketsaleofgovernmentsecuritieswoulddecreasethesupplyofreserves.
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2.9
Toloweritstargetforthefederalfundsrate,theFedcanconductanopenmarketpurchaseof
securitiesandtoraiseitstargetforthefederalfundsrate,theFedcanconductanopenmarket
saleofsecurities.Inthegraphsbelow,thediscountrateisalsoassumedtobeloweredandraised
alongwiththetargetforthefederalfundsrate.
2.10 a. Toraisethefederalfundsrate,theFedcouldsellsecurities.
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b. Tooffsettheeffectonthefederalfundsrateofanincreaseinthedemandforreserves,theFed
couldbuysecurities.Inthegraphbelow,theFedalsolowersthediscountrate.
c. Tooffsettheeffectofanincreaseintherequiredreserveratiowhichwouldincreasethedemand
forreserves,theFedcouldbuysecurities.Thegraphisthesameasforpartb.above.
2.11
AnopenmarketsaleofTreasurysecuritiesbytheFeddecreasesthesupplyofreserves,raising
thefederalfundsrate,unlessthenewsupplycurveofreservesintersectsthedemandcurvefor
reservesonthehorizontalportionattheinterestratetheFedpaysonreserves.
2.12 a. Seethegraphbelow.
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b. Seethegraphforparta.above.TheFedwouldsellTreasurysecurities.
2.13 a. Seethegraphbelow.
b. Seethegraphforparta.above.TheFedwouldbuyTreasurysecurities.
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a. ThepolicydirectiveisthegeneraldirectiveaftereachFOMCmeetingtotheFederalReserve
SystemsaccountmanagerstatingtheFOMCsoverallobjectivesforinterestratesandopen
marketoperations.
b. TheaccountmanageristheFederalReserveSystemsaccountmanager,whoisavicepresident
oftheFederalReserveBankofNewYorkandwhohastheresponsibilityofimplementingopen
marketoperationsandhittingtheFOMCstargetforthefederalfundsrate.
c. ThetradingdeskistheOpenMarketTradingDeskattheFederalReserveBankofNewYork.
Thetradingdeskislinkedelectronicallytoabout18primarydealers.
d. AprimarydealerisaprivatesecuritiesfirmthattheFedhasselectedtoparticipateinopen
marketoperations.
3.2
AnopenmarketsaleofTreasurysecuritiesdecreasesthepriceofTreasurysecurities,thereby
increasingtheyieldonTreasurysecurities.ThesaleofTreasurysecuritiesdecreasesthe
monetarybaseandthemoneysupply.
3.3
Dynamicopenmarketoperationsareintendedtochangemonetarypolicyasdirectedbythe
FOMC.Defensiveopenmarketoperationsareintendedtooffsettemporaryfluctuationsinthe
demandorsupplyforreserves,nottochangemonetarypolicy.Dynamicopenmarketoperations
arelikelytobeconductedasoutrightpurchasesandsalesofTreasurysecurities,whereas
defensiveopenmarketoperationsareconductedthroughrepurchaseagreementsandreverse
repurchaseagreements.
3.4
Openmarketoperationshavetheadvantagesoverotherpolicytoolsofcontrol,flexibility,and
easeofimplementation.TheFedinitiatesopenmarketoperationsandcompletelycontrolsthe
volumeofopenmarketpurchasesandsales.Openmarketoperationsareflexiblebecausethe
Fedcanmakebothlargeandsmallopenmarketoperations,andtheFedcaneasilyimplement
openmarketoperationsbythetradingdeskplacingbuyorsellorderswiththeprimarydealers.
3.5
Quantitativeeasingisthecentralbankpolicythatattemptstostimulatetheeconomybybuying
longtermsecurities.TheFed,traditionally,purchasesshorttermTreasurysecurities,butwith
thefederalfundsratealreadynearzerobyDecember2008,theFedpurchasedmortgagebacked
securitiesand10yearTreasurysecuritiestoreducetheinterestratesonmortgagesandother
longtermrates.
3.6
Thethreecategoriesofdiscountloansareprimarycredit,secondarycredit,andseasonalcredit.
Primarycreditisdiscountloanstohealthybanksexperiencingtemporaryliquidityproblems.
Secondarycreditisdiscountloanstobanksthatarenoteligibleforprimarycreditbecausethey
haveinadequatecapitalorlowsupervisoryratings.Seasonalcreditisdiscountloanstosmaller
banksinareaswhereagricultureortourismisimportant.Wheneconomistsandpolicymakers
refertothediscountrate,theyarereferringtotheinterestrateonprimarycredit.
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3.7
Before1980,onlymemberbanksoftheFederalReserveSystemcouldreceivediscountloans.
After1980,alldepositoryinstitutionscouldreceivediscountloans.Duringthefinancialcrisisof
20072009,theFedsdiscountlendingexpandedtoincludetemporarylendingfacilitiesthat
madeloanstoprimarydealers(investmentbanksandlargesecuritiesfirms),financialfirmswith
mortgagebackedsecurities,nonfinancialcorporationsthatissuecommercialpaper,and
investorsthatpurchaseassetbackedsecurities.
Tohitthetargetfederalfundsrate,theaccountmanageradjustthesupplyofreservesbyusing
openmarketpurchasesandsalesofTreasurysecurities.Onmostdays,thetradingdeskcarries
outdefensiveopenmarketoperationstooffsettemporaryfluctuationsinthedemandorsupply
forreserves.
3.9
Agree.TheFedcannotmanageboththelevelofreservesandthefederalfundsrate.Ifit
managesthefederalfundsrate,thenthelevelofreservesmustchangewhenthedemandfor
reserveschangesinordertomaintainthedesiredfederalfundsrate.Likewise,iftheFed
managesthelevelofreserves,thenthefederalfundsratewillchangewhenthedemandfor
reserveschanges.
3.10
TheFedtypicallypurchasesshorttermTreasurysecurities,butwithquantitativeeasingtheFed
purchaseslongtermsecuritiessuchasmortgagebackedsecuritiesand10yearTreasurybonds.
Duringthefinancialcrisis,theFedturnedtoquantitativeeasingbecausetheyhadalready
pushedthefederalfundsratetonearlyzerobuttheeconomycontinuedtolingerinrecession.
Thepolicyofquantitativeeasinghasraisedconcernsofhigherinflationratesinthefuture
becausethesebondpurchasesgreatlyexpandedthemonetarybase.
3.11
Byincreasingtheinterestrateitpaysonbankreserves,theFedcanincreasethelevelofreserves
banksarewillingtohold,therebyrestrainingbanklendingandincreasesinthemoneysupply.
Additionally,thetermdepositfacility,theFedsothernewpolicytool,couldtousedtorestrain
banksfromlendinglargeamountsofexcessreservesallatonce.Themorefundsbanksplacein
termdeposits,thelesstheywillhaveavailabletoexpandloansandthemoneysupply.
3.12
Disagree.ThetargetforthefederalfundsrateissetbytheFOMC,butnottheactualfederal
fundsrate,whichisdeterminedbythedemandandsupplyofreserves.
3.13
Ifonlybankscouldborrowandlendinthefederalfundsmarket,thentheactualfederalfunds
ratecouldnotdropbelowtheinterestratetheFedpaysonreservedepositsbecausebankscould
borrowinthefederalfundsmarketandturnaroundanddepositthefundsintheirreserve
balancesattheFedandearnariskfreereturn.Competitionamongbankstoobtainthefundson
thefederalfundsmarketwoulddrivethefederalfundsrateuptotheinterestratetheFedpays
onreserves.
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3.14
ThePrimaryDealerCreditFacilitywasdesignedtohelpprimarydealersbyproviding
emergencyloanswithmortgagebackedsecuritiesascollateral.TheTermSecuritiesLending
FacilitywasdesignedtohelpfinancialfirmsbyprovidingloansofTreasurysecuritiesin
exchangeformortgagebackedsecurities.TheCommercialPaperFundingFacilitywasdesigned
tohelpnonfinancialcorporationsthatissuedcommercialpaperbytheFeddirectlypurchasing
newissuesofthreemonthcommercialpaper.TheTermAssetBackedSecuritiesLoanFacility
wasdesignedtohelpfirmsthatraisedfundsthroughassetbackedsecurities.TheFedextended
threeyearorfiveyearloanstohelpinvestorspurchaseassetbackedsecurities.
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Inattemptingtoreachhigheconomicgrowthorhighemployment,theFedwouldpursue
expansionarymonetarypolicy,butthissamepolicycouldcausehigherinflation.
4.2
ThetwotimingdifficultiestheFedfacesinusingitsmonetarypolicytoolsaretheinformation
lagandtheimpactlag?TheinformationlagistheFedsinabilitytoobserveinstantaneously
changesinGDP,inflationorothereconomicvariables,andtheimpactlagisthetimethatis
requiredformonetarypolicychangestoaffectoutput,employment,orinflation.
4.3
TheFedcanmoredirectlycontrolandcanmorequicklyobserveintermediateoroperating
targetsthanpolicygoals.
4.4
Fromthemostinfluencetotheleastinfluence:policytools,policyinstruments,intermediate
targets,andpolicygoals.
4.5
ThecriteriaofpredictableapredictableimpactofthepolicyinstrumentontheFedspolicygoals
leadtheFedtousethefederalfundsrateasitspolicyinstrumentinsteadofthelevelofreserves.
4.6
TheTaylorruleisamonetarypolicyguidelinedevelopedbyeconomistJohnTaylorfor
determiningthetargetforthefederalfundsrate.TheTaylorruleservesasasummarymeasure
ofFedpolicyandcanbecomparedtotheFedsactualtargetforthefederalfundsratetogeta
senseofwhetherFedpolicyistoorestrictiveortooaccommodative.
4.7
Inflationtargetingreferstotheconductingofmonetarypolicysoastocommitthecentralbank
toachievingapubliclyannouncedlevelofinflation.Withthefinancialcrisis,thepolicygoalof
stabilityoffinancialmarketsandinstitutionshasbecomemorepressingthanthegoalofstableprices.
4.8
TheBankofCanadausesinflationtargetingandafocusontheexchangevalueoftheCanadian
dollar.TheBankofEnglandusesinflationtargeting.TheBankofJapanhasnotadopteda
formalinflationtarget,butdoesemphasizepricestability.TheEuropeanCentralBankhasan
inflationtargetandattachesasignificantroletothemonetaryaggregateM3.
TheFedcouldmoreaggressivelyattempttoreducehighcyclicalunemploymentwhenthe
inflationrateislowbecausetheexpansionarymonetarypolicyusedtodecreasecyclical
unemploymentwouldincreaseinflation.Theincreaseininflationwouldbelessofaproblemif
theinflationrateislow.
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Chapter15MonetaryPolicy177
4.10
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h.
i.
j.
Statewhethereachofthefollowingvariablesismostlikelytobeagoal,anintermediatetarget,
anoperatingtarget,oramonetarypolicytool.
M2wouldbeanintermediatetarget.
Monetarybasewouldbeanintermediatetarget.
Unemploymentratewouldbeapolicygoal.
Openmarketpurchaseswouldbeapolicytool.
Federalfundsratewouldbeanoperatingtarget.
Nonborrowedreserveswouldbeanoperatingtarget.
M1wouldbeanintermediatetarget.
RealGDPgrowthwouldbeapolicygoal.
Discountratewouldbeapolicytool.
Inflationratewouldbeapolicygoal.
4.11
IftheFedusesthefederalfundsrateasapolicyinstrument,thenincreasesinthedemandfor
reserveswillleadtoanincreaseinthelevelofreserves.Conversely,iftheFedusesthelevelof
reservesasapolicyinstrument,thenincreasesinthedemandforreserveswillleadtoanincrease
inthefederalfundsrate.
4.12
CongressauthorizedNOWaccountsonwhichbankscanpayinterestandbanksdeveloped
automatedtransferofsavingaccounts,whichmovecheckabledepositbalancesintohigher
interestCDseachnightandthenbackintocheckabledepositbalancesinthemorning,and
sweepaccounts,whichmovecheckabledepositsofbusinessesintomoneymarketdeposit
accountsattheendofeachweekandthenmovethefundsbackintocheckabledepositsat
thebeginningofthefollowingweek.WithM1becomingmoreofastoreofvaluethana
puremediumofexchangetheshortrunlinkbetweenM1andspendingandthereforeM1
andinflationwasbroken.
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178Hubbard&OBrienMoney,Banking,andtheFinancialSystem,FirstEdition
4.13 a. M2
b. Changesinthemoneysupplyarenolongerusefulforforecastinginflationintheshortterm,but
areusefulinforecastinginflationinthelongterm.
4.14
Agree.TheFedcannotmanageboththelevelofreservesandthefederalfundsrate.Ifit
managesthefederalfundsrate,thenthelevelofreservesmustchangewhenthedemandfor
reserveschangesinordertomaintainthedesiredfederalfundsrate.Likewise,iftheFed
managesthelevelofreserves,thenthefederalfundsratewillchangewhenthedemandfor
reserveschanges.
4.15
Taylorrulefederalfundsratetarget220.5(1.22)0.5(7)0.10.ThisTaylorrule
federalfundsratetargetfitswithintheFedsactualtargetrangeof0.00to0.25%.
4.16 a. Monetaryexcessesinthiscontextwouldreferprimarilytothefederalfundsratebeingtoo
low.
b. TheevidenceofmonetaryexcessesisthattheFOMCkeptthefederalfundsrateatlevelswell
belowthoseindicatedbytheTaylorrulefrom2002to2006.
Data Exercises
D15.1
ThemostrecentFOMCpressreleasewillchangeovertime.Theanswersbelowapplytothe
pressreleaseofNovember3,2010.
a. TheFOMCmaintainedtherangeforthetargetforthefederalfundsrateat0to1/4percent,
andindicatedthateconomicconditionsarelikelytowarrantexceptionallylowlevelsforthe
federalfundsrateforanextendedperiod.
b. TheFOMCismoreconcernedaboutsloweconomicgrowth.
c. Nomentionofthediscountrate?
d. NomentionoftheinterestratepaidonbankreservesortheTermDepositFacility.TheFed
announcedanotherroundofquantitativeeasing(Q.E.II)withthepurchaseof$600billionof
longertermsecuritiesbetweenNovember,2010andtheendofthesecondquarterof2010.
D15.2
a.
b.
AsoftheearlyDecember2010,theupperlimitofthetargetforthefederalfundsratehas
notchangedoverthelastyear,remainingat0.25%.
Theeffectivefederalfundsratefluctuatedconsiderablyvaryingfrom0.04to0.22%.
2012PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall