Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
1993;10:291-308
291
0000
Background
Key to understanding a firm's position vis-h-vis new
product development is being able to measure the
"success," or alternatively "failure," of individual
products and overall development programs. This
branch of research extends back at least to 1964 when
the National Industrial Conference Board published an
article entitled "Why New Products Fail" [12]. Then in
1968, Booz, Allen, and Hamilton published its research
findings as their report, Management of New Products
[6], increasing interest in the mechanisms which spur on
success. Since then, numerous researchers have followed in Booz, Allen's footsteps, trying to specify
techniques for improving product development success
through various research methods. Indeed, the importance of this area of management research is indicated by
the number of research articles published--seventyseven were collected for this study [1 through 77].
Between the Journal of Product Innovation Management (JPIM) and yearly Proceedings from its international conference, the PDMA alone published five
articles concerned with this subject in 1991
[24,33,52,58,69].
At the "academic" research paper sessions held at
the 1990 PDMA International Conference, several of
the researchers presented studies involving issues
associated with new product development success.
Each researcher used different measures for delineating success. While each paper was interesting, the
group listening to the presentations found that using
different success/failure (S/F) measures made it difficult to draw generalizations across the investigations.
0737-6782/93/$6.00
292
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES
Abbie Griffin, Associate Professor of Marketing and Production
Management, joined the University of Chicago's Graduate School
of Business in 1989. She earned a B.S. in Chemical engineering
from Purdue University in 1974, an M.B.A. from Harvard
University in 1981, and a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in 1989. Her research interests are in measuring and
improving processes for developing new products. This is her third
article in the Journal of Product Innovation Management.
Task Force M e m b e r
Affiliation
George Castellion
Merle Crawford
Anthonydi Benedetto
Deborah Dougherty
Laurence Feldman
Abbie Griffina
Thomas Hustad
Albert Pagea
Martin Schwartz
Allan Shocker
William Souder
H. CliftonYoung
a Task force co-chairs.
Time Frame
Tasks
November 1990
December 1990 to
April 1991
April 1991
October 1991
November 1991
293
294
Core
Measures
Actually
S/F Measures
Used
(34)
Customer
Acceptance
Measures
Customer
Acceptance
Customer
Satisfaction
Met Revenue Goals
Revenue Growth
Met market
share goals
Met unit sales goals
/
24
Financial
Performance
Break-even
time
Attain margin goals
Attain profitability
goals
IRR/ROI
II Desired
/I Measures
(45)
Product-Level
Measures
Development
Cost
Launched
on time
Product
performance
level
Met quality
guidelines
Speed
to market
Firm-Level
% of sales
Measures
by new
products
Program-level
Product-level
measures
measures
2 7his is the most common decision rule for determining how many
factors obtain. The two factors so generated are orthogonal and account for
48.3% of the variation in the data.
295
C o m p a r i n g O u r Structure to Other
Researchers' Structures
T w o o f the papers reviewed in this study [16,41] also
attempt to organize a set o f S/F measures into a useful
framework of (more or less) independent dimensions.
The structure we obtained subsumes and augments
C o o p e r ' s structure [16], and further integrates two of
the three aspects broached but not dealt with simultaneously in Hauschildt's analysis [41]. Table 4 illustrates how the overarching dimensions of each analysis
compare.
Hauschildt [41] compared the measures used by
thirty investigators looking at the success of innovations. He found that the measures dealt with several
independent aspects o f measurement: the scope of the
measurement, the attributes o f the innovation, and the
process stage at which success is measured. Hauschildt
arrived at his structure judgmentally, and did not use
any sort o f statistical test to validate the result.
In his paper, he discusses each measurement aspect
independently, and presents typologies for each, but
does not synthesize across the aspects, except to
conclude that " t h e r e are many different aspects o f the
measurement, depending on the respective stage o f the
innovation process." He also proposed that it "is
therefore not possible to effect the measurement o f
success with the help o f a single criterion," a
proposition also supported by our analysis.
The scope of the measurement refers to the unit o f
analysis o f the measurement: the project, the program,
and the firm. Our structure also acknowledges differences in the scope o f the measurement and separately
considers program and firm measures. Our customer,
financial, and product categories are all aspects of
project-level measures. Hauschildt's attributes of the
innovation, mostly items at the project level of
analysis, split into three dimensions: technical, eco-
Cooper [ 16]
Firm
e-~
Success Rate
Program
Customer I
Financial
Product
~-~
Hauschildt [41]
~
~
l Firm
Other
Program
Economic
Effects
Technical
Effects
296
nomic, and other effects. The technical effects dimension covers the kinds of issues in our product-based
category, whereas the economic effects consist of both
the customer acceptance and financial measures. The
"other" category covers strategic aspects of firm-level
indicators.
Cooper [16] factor analyzed responses for eight
measures used in his research, resulting in three
orthogonal multifactor dimensions of success. However, compared to the task force structure, these
multifactor dimensions constitute only a portion of the
information desired because Cooper's research focuses
on management's ability to commercialize a succession of successful new products. Cooper's measures
capture only three independent dimensions of firm and
program-level outcomes, and do not analyze S/F at the
project level. Thus, his structure fits in as a subset of
the overall picture of required measurements to help
firms and researchers better understand product development S/F.
In summary, the structure developed and used
extensively by Cooper fits nicely into the program and
firm-level categories of the task force structure. The
task force structure is also quite in line with the
categories presented by Hauschildt. Our factor analysis
of the S/F measures indicates that the five dimensions
developed are indeed independent and measure different aspects of S/F.
# Measures Used
4
3-
2-
1-
Q4:
Now Measure
Customer
Q5:
Want Measured
IIll Finance
iiiiiiii!!i!Product
Researchers
Measure
g
Firm
E ~ Program
S/F.
297
Product
*Met
Life L e n g t h
Revenue Growth
Market Position
~ J J J J ~ J f J J J J J J J J J J ~
~ f J J J J J J f J J J J f ~ f J J J f ~
~ f j j j j j f j f j f f J f J f J f T ~
~-r~
.....................
~JJJJJJJJfJfJfJJ~
r r. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Field R e t u r n Rate
Customer Retention
Number of Customers
W o r t h to R e t a i l e r
i
m
mill
I
I
I
10
15
20
#
Current
* Core measures
n - 50
identified
by a l l g r o u p s
Responses
Usage
~lDesired
Usage
25
298
Launch
Profit Goals
On Time
* Margin Goals
on Line
Break-Even Time
Development
Cost
Budgel
Within
Performs
Speed
ROI/IRR
Internal
to Spec
to Market
Support
Innovativenesg
10
15
20
25
Technical Success
# Responses
ml
Current Usage
.,:J
Product
Desired Usage
Yield
m
0
F i g u r e 4. M e a s u r e s
10
15
20
25
# Responses
Current
Usage
mDesired
Usage
n - 50
citations/measure.
measure.
NP % of A l l S a l e s
S t r a t e g i c Fit of NP
L e a d s to F u t u r e O p p s
NP % of T o t a l P r o f i t
S u c c e s s / F a i l u r e Rate
PR V a l u e of N P ' s
6
Core measures identified by all groups
. . . .
3 Note that the results in the column labeled Page [62] will be discussed
later.
10
15
20
# Responses
Current Usage
Desired Usage
25
# Measures
299
Used/Respondent
0
Q4:
Now Measure
Customer
QS:
Want Measured
[ I ] ] Finance
Researchers
Measure
~i:~i~i?Product
F;rm
Page [62]
Usage
[~
Program
Customer Measures
Firm-Level Measures
Market Share
Volume
Customer Acceptance
Customer Satisfaction
Product-Related
Financial Measures
Margin Level
Performance
Speed to Market
Completed in Budget
Subjectively "successful"
Technically successful
Firm Data
78
33
22
6
0
139
38
3.7
Number of
Mentions
Percent of
Total
19
37
17
12
10
10
4
3
8
6
Researchers
42 a
29 a
63 a
41 a
10 a
184 a
61 a
3.0
300
Percent Citing
Culture
6
5
46
18
19
13
F - 5 . 3 ; p <0.01.
Analysis Method
To form differentiating groups from the data we factor
analyzed the responses for each o f the categories of S/F
measures our respondents now use together with the
reasons they provide for not measuring S/F. The
statistical analysis produced a five-factor solution
accounting for 66% o f the variation in the data, as
shown in Table 10. Respondents were assigned to
factors based on their factor scores so that we could
MEASURINGPRODUCTDEVELOPMENTSUCCESSANDFAILURE
Example 1
An office products manufacturer takes an uncomplicated
approach to measuring S/F. It appraises the S/F of its new
products with measures of customer acceptance and financial performance. The customer acceptance measures used
are unit and dollar sales, while the financial performance
measure is the gross profit contribution of the new product.
The firm does not gauge overall success of its new products
program with either program measures or firm-based
measures.
Example 2
A large telecommunications company measures S/F in three
categories in evaluating new services: customer acceptance,
program, and firm benefits. Since it is difficult to estimate
the true cost of a new service deployed over the same
systems, wires and cables, revenues are scrutinized in both
the short (one year) and long (four- to five- year) terms as
measures of customer acceptance. Development program
success is measured from trends in individual service
development cycle times, with goals to reduce them by some
percentage each year. Firm-based benefits are measured as
the percent of current sales contributed by services introduced in the last five years.
Example 3
A major consumer packaged goods firm has invested several
years of effort in determining just what product development
variables to measure. They feel that knowing what aspects of
product development to measure and providing incentives to
motivate the organization to improve those results is key to
driving the success of the whole organization. In fact, they
feel this issue is so important that their approach to
measuring product development is proprietary and they
would not discuss the details of what they measure with us.
J PRODINNOVMANAG
1993;10:291-308
301
Percent
of Total
Measurement Focus
Categories Measured
14
No culture, no process,
and no accountability
Unimportant, and will not
wait for results
302
Measurement Focus
Categories Measured
Outwardly focused
Swamped bottomliners
Inwardly focused
Customer measures
Like to use financial measures, but do not have time
Product and program
25
Percent
of Total
MeasurementF o c u s
38
34
Product-focused
Balanced end results
28
Strategic outcomes
CategoriesMeasured
Product measures
Customer and finance
measures
Program and finn
measures
303
MeasurementF o c u s
CategoriesMeasured
Balancedend results
Profit and performance
Distributedprofit
Distributed
performance
Customerand financial
Productand finance
Finance and firm-level
Product and firm
304
Five independent dimensions of S/F performance have been identified: firm-, program-, and
product-level measures, and measures of financial performance and customer acceptance.
References
1. Abrams, George J. Why new products fail. Advertising Age April 22,
1974, pp. 51-52.
2. Ancona, Deborah Gladstein and Caldwell, David E. Cross-Functional
305
306
29. Crawford, C. Merle. Marketing research and the new product failure
rate. Journal of Marketing 41(2):51-)61 (1971).
31. Davis, John S. New product success and failure: Three case studies.
Industrial Marketing Management 17(2): 103-109 (May 1988).
32. Dougherty, Deborah. Understanding new markets for new products.
Strategic Management Journal 11:59-78 (1990).
33. Dwyer, Larry and Mellor, Robert. Organizational environment, new
product process activities, and project outcomes. Journal of Product
Innovation Management 8( 1):39-48 (March, 1991).
34. Edgett, Scott, Shipley, David, and Forbes, Giles. Japanese and British
companies compared: Contributing factors to success and failure in
new product development. 1990 PDMA Proceedings. 15-25 October,
1990, Journal of Product Innovation Management 9(1):3-10 (March,
1992).
35. Gallagher Report. Supplement to Volume XXI, Number 13:1 (March
26, 1973),
36. Graf, Franklin. Speech by A,C. Nielsen, Vice President to the Grocery
Manufacturer's Executive Conference, 1967, cited by John T. Gerlach
and Charles A. Wainright. Successful Management of New Products.
New York: Hastings House Publishers, 1968, pp. 125
37. Griffin, Abbie. Evaluating QFD's use in U.S. finns as a process for
developing products. Journal of Product Innovation Management
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38. Griffin, Abbie. Metrics for measuring new product development cycle
times. Journal of Product Innovation Management 10(2):112-125
(March, 1992).
39. Griffin, Abbie. Functionally integrating new product development.
Unpublished PhD dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
(June, 1989).
40. Griffin, Abbie, and Hauser, John. R. The voice of the customer,
Marketing Science, Winter, 1993, pp. 1-30.
41. Hauschildt, J. Towards measuring the success of innovations. In:
Technology Management: The New International Language, Proceedings of Portland International Conference on Management of
Engineering and Technology. Dundar F. Kocaoglu and Kiyoshi Niwa,
(eds.) Portland, OR: (October 27-31, 1991).
42. Hise, Richard T. et al. Marketing/R&D interaction in new product
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43. Hopkins, David S. New product winners and losers. Research
Management 24(3):12-17 (May, 1981).
44. Hopkins, David S. and Bailey, Earl L. New product pressures. The
Conference Board Record June, 1971, pp. 16-24.
45, House, Charles H. and Price, Raymond L. The return map: Tracking
product teams. Harvard Business Review (January-February, 1991),
pp. 92-100.
46. Johne, Frederick Axel. How experienced product innovators organize.
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1984).
47. Johne, Frederick Axel and Snelson, Patricia A. Success factors in
product innovation: A selective review of the literature. Journal of
Product Innovation Management (5): 114--!28 (1988).
48. Kaplan, Robert S. and Norton, David P. The balanced scorecard-measures that drive performance. Harvard Business Review JanuaryFebruary, 1992, pp. 71-79.
49. Karakaya, Fahri. Marketing concept versus technological push.
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50. Kieren, Thomas. New Product Development Survey of Chief Executive
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51. King, Bob. Hoshin Planning: The Developmental Approach. Methuen,
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MEASURINGPRODUCTDEVELOPMENTSUCCESSAND FAILURE
Roles for Research and Models in Improving New Product Development, edited by Bruce D. Weinberg, Marketing Science Institute
Report # 90-120, 2-6 (December, 1990).
77. Womak, James P., Jones, Daniel T. and Roos, Daniel. The Machine
that Changed the World, New York: Rawson Associates (1990).
78. Yoon, Eunsang, and Lilien, Gary L. New industrial product performance: The effect of market characteristics and strategy. Journal of
Product Innovation Management 2(3): 134--144 (September, 1985).
Customer acceptance
Customer satisfaction level
RELSALE
REPTRAT
RETAIL
RETURNS
REVGOAL
REVGROW
SALACPT
SALEYR5
SALVARY
SEGTPSN
NUMCUST
OFFMKT
PRDTLIF
PRISVAL
SOMGOAL
SOMYR 1
TRIAL
TSTRATE
VOLUME
BETIME
MGNGOAL
PIGOAL
Break-even time
(from start of project)
Attains margin goals
Attains profitability goals
RELPI
RETURNF
Relative profits
Return factor
ROI
J PRODINNOVMANAG
1993;10:291-308
COMPTAD
COSTGOAL
DEVCOST
DEVEFF
Development efficiency
DISAPNT
EASYMFR
INBUDGT
INNOVN
ONTIME
PERFORM
PERFREL
PROBSUC
PROGRES
QUALITY
SPDMKT
SUBJSUC
SUPPORT
TEAMSAT
TECHAWRD
TECHSUC
XIMPACT
YIELDS
FIRM-BASED MEASURES
EXTNDBL
FITSTRT
I-HTOPP
NUMNEW
PCTHIPI
PCTPIPN
PCTPINEW
PCTSLNEW
PCTSLPN
PRVALUE
SUCFAIL
PRODUCT-LEVEL MEASURES
PROGRAM MEASURES
AUTOMAT
CMPTRXN
307
5YROBJ
308
EXCEEDS
PROGPI
IMPACT
PROGSALE
SUBJIMP
PRCSROI
PROGOVER