CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD

SECURITY IN PAKISTAN

Arif Mahmood
Chief Meteorologist
Pakistan Meteorological Department

http://www.pakmet.com.pk

The country Profile

The country has a long latitudinal
extent stretching from the Arabian Sea
in the south to the Himalayan
mountains in north.
It is located in sub-tropics and partially
in temperate region
2

PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN
GEOGRAPHICAL
LOCATION
GEOGRAPHICAL

LOCATION

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE

Population:

161 million

Growth Rate:

2.06%

Literacy rate:

51%

Male
Female

GDP (per capita):

53%
29%

$982

Population below poverty line:32%

Urban
Rural

22%
39%

Major Crops
Wheat
Rice
Sugarcane
Maize

The Climate
Climatologically, most parts of Pakistan
are arid to semi-arid with significant
spatial and temporal variability in
climatic parameters
59% of the annual rainfall is due to
monsoon rains; a dominant hydrometeorological re-source for Pakistan
5

The Climate
Greater Himalayan region above 35N
receives winter precipitation mostly in
the form of snow and ice.
The snow melt contribution keeps the
rivers perennial throughout the year

The Climate
The coastal climate is confined to a narrow
strip along the coast in the south and
southeast, while the north is dominated by
the mountain climate. In between the climate
is broadly of typical continental nature
Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level
rise, Storm surges & associated flash
flooding
7

The Climate

Hot dry summers,

 Temperatures upto 530c (1270 F)

Rainfall
Annual average (weighted):
South:
North:

Monsoon Share:

278 mm

80 - 200 mm
250 1600 mm

59%
8

AGRICULTURE

Largest sector of Economy (24% of GDP)

68% population rural; directly or indirectly

depends on agriculture

Industries almost entirely agro based

>80% exports agro based

Predominantly depends on irrigation
9

10

Recent Trends in Climate

Change (Pakistan)
 Rise in mean temp. of 0.6-1.0C in arid coastal are as,
arid mountains and hyper arid plains
 10-15% decrease in both winter and summer rainfall in
coastal belt and hyper arid plains
 18-32% increase in rainfall in monsoon zone
especially the sub-humid and humid areas.

11

Recent Trends in Climate

Change (Pakistan)
 5% decrease in relative humidity in
Balochistan
 0.5 to 0.7% Increase in solar radiation over
southern half of country.
 3-5% decrease in cloud cover in central
Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours

12

Recent Trends in Climate

Change (Pakistan)


3 - 5% increase in Evapotranspirative rate due to

0.9C temp. increase. Expanding aridity outside
monsoon zone and arid regions

 5% Increase in net irrigation water requirement with

no change in rainfall.
 17-64% departure of rainfall from normal during
strong EL Nino events

13

Recent Trends in Climate

Change (Pakistan)
 Frequency of extreme events such as heavy rain, flash
floods, dust/thunder/hailstorms, heat waves, density
and persistence of fog is on rise.
 The intensity of systems also increased during last
quarter of the 20th century.
 There is a visible shift in weather pattern from the
normal.
 Viral and pollen ailments have been reported more
common .
14

Evidence of Climate Change in

Recent Past
1992

Historys worst floods in Jhelum river in

Pakistan

1996

Severe urban storm flooding in Lahore,

Pakistan due to 500 mm
rainfall in 24 hours
on 20th July

1998

Dokriani glacier in Himalayas, India retreated

at a record pace. The glacier retreated 66 feet
in 1998 despite severe winter.

15

Evidence of Climate Change in

Recent Past
1998

The Gangorti glacier is retreating 98 feet per

year. At this rate scientists predict the loss of
all central and eastern Himalayan glaciers by
2035

1999

Severe Cyclonic Storm hit the coastal areas of

Pakistan and India

19982001

Historys worst drought in Pakistan

2001

621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours

in the month of July causing historys worst
flash floods in twin cities
16

Evidence of Climate Change in

Recent Past
Feb
2003

Feb
2003

July
2003

On 17th Feb, four to five inches of rain fell

in Hyderabad region. The storms acted
like a mini tornado and damaged
infrastructure. 9 people were reported
dead.
On 19th Feb, 2 to 4 inches of rain
associated with a suction vortex affected
eastern Punjab which uprooted trees &
electric poles, threw away heavy
equipment
Hundreds of villages of lower Sindh were
17
affected by flash floods.

Evidence of Climate Change in

Recent Past
Winter
2005

Record heavy snowfall in northern areas

caused havoc and resulted in loss of lives
and damage to property.
Also heavy rains in Balochistan caused
flash flooding and damage to properties
and loss of lives.
More than 5 million people affected and
832 people died due to extreme weather
18
conditions.

Maximum daily precipitation (mm) trend in

northern parts of Pakistan from 1931-2007

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Balakot

Dir

Kakul

1931-60

Islamabad

Jhelum

1961-90

Murree

Muzaffarabad Sialkot

1991-2001

19

Maximum daily precipitation (mm) trend in

MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF RAINFALL(mm) IN 24HRS IN CENTRAL PARTS OF
Central parts of Pakistan
from 1931-2007
PAKISTAN
300.0

A M O U N T (m m )

250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
Lahore

Faisalabad

Multan

D.I.Khan

Quetta

Zhob

STATIONS
1931-60

1961-90

1991-2007

20

Maximum daily precipitation (mm) trend in

Southern parts
of Pakistan
1931-2007
MAXIMUM AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL(mm) IN 24HRS from
IN SOUTHERN PARTS
OF PAKISTAN
300.0

A M O U N T (m m )

250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0

Lasbella

Pasni JacobabadNawabshah Chhor Hyderabad Badin

Karachi

STATIONS

1931-60

1961-90

1991-2007

21

IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND

ECONOMY
Less snowfall, slow deposits & glacierization
Reduced river flows
Reduction in storage of water in dams
Less rainfall in arid areas, prolonged droughts

22

IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND

AGRICULTURE
Extreme weather events pose serious
threat to food security.
Farmer are more concerned to extreme
events. They realize that not the 364
days of normal weather that scares
them, but the one day of flash flooding.
23

IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND

AGRICULTURE

Heat-wave in sub-continent in 2005,

reduced agricultural yields in
affected countries by between 10 to
40% of the harvests for that year

24

Water Availability Situation

 Gross per capita water availability in Pakistan will
decline from ~ 1350 m3/yr in 2001 to as low as ~
858 m3/yr in 2025

Source: WAPDA

25

FOUR DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY

AVAILABILITY
production
distribution
exchange

ACCESS
income
food aid

FOOD
SECURITY

STABILITY
supplies
access

UTILIZATION
nutrient content
food safety
human health
26

LINKS BETWEEN CC & FOOD SECURITY

All four dimensions of food security are

likely to be affected by climate change

The links between cc and food security

have to date largely been explored in
relation to food availability, particularly
crop productivity

27

Vulnerability of Agriculture in Pakistan

 Increasing temperatures
 Changes in average rainfall
 Increased variability of Monsoon
 Changes in availability of irrigation water
 Water-stressed conditions in Arid and Semi-arid areas
 Extreme events, such as floods, droughts, heat waves,
cold waves, cyclones, etc.

28

Impacts on Crop
Productivity
Wheat

29

Past trend in wheat yield in

Faisalabad district (1960-2004)
5000
4000
3000
2000

Y = -4.974x + 3335.7
t = (0.60)
(15.37)
Yield decrease not significant

1000

00
20

96
19

92
19

88
19

84
19

80
19

76
19

72
19

68
19

64
19

60

0
19

Yield (kg/ha)

6000

Year
30

Past trend of national average

wheat yield (1960-2004)
3000

Yield (kg/ha)

2500
2000
1500
1000

y = 38.958x + 700.89
t = (35.89)
(25.5)

500
0

Yield Increase over the 44 year period =38.54 1.07 kg/ha/year

2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
Years
Wheat yield

Linear (Wheat yield)

31

Impact of rise in temperature on wheat

Growing Season Length in Northern &
Southern Pakistan
Temperature C
(increase over baseline)

Growing Season Length (Days)

Northern Pakistan

Southern Pakistan

Mountainous
Region
(Humid)

Sub-Mountainous
Region
(Sub-humid)

Plains
(Semi-arid)

Plains
(Arid)

246

161

146

137

232

155

140

132

221

149

135

127

211

144

130

123

202

138

125

118

194

133

121

113

Baseline

32

Effect of rise in temperature on Wheat yields in

agro-climatic zones of Pakistan
(other factors remaining constant)
4500
Northern
Mountainous
(Humid)

W h e a t Y ie ld ( k g /h a )

4000

Northern SubMountainous
(Sub-humid)

3500
3000

Southern Plains
(Semi arid)

2500
Southern Plains
(Arid)

2000
0

2
3
Temperature Change (oC)

5
33

Effect of increase in CO2 concentration

on wheat yield
(other factors remaining constant)
6500

W h e a t Yie ld (k g /h a)

Southern Semiarid Plains

5500
Southern Arid
Plains

4500

Northern Submountainous
region

3500
2500

Northern
Mountainous
Region

1500
350

525

700

875

CO2 Concentration (ppm)

1050
34

Wheat Yield in different agroclimatic zones of Pakistan under

A2 Scenarios
5000

Wheat Yield (kg/ha)

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Base

2020s

2050s

2080s

Northern Mountainous Region

Northern Sub mountainous

Southern Semi-arid Plains

Southern Arid Plains

35

Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production

in Pakistan by 2085 (A2 and B2 Scenarios )
Region

Share in
National
Production

Baseline Yield
(kg ha-1)

(%)

% Change in yield in
2080
A2
Scenario

B2
Scenario

Northern
Mountainous

2658

+50

+40

Northern Submountainous

3933

-11

-11

Southern Semi
arid Plains

42

4306

-8

-8

47

4490

-5

-6

100

4326

-5.7

-6.4

Southern Arid
Plains
Pakistan

36

Rice

37

Effect of rise in Temperature on Growing

Season Length of Rice in Semi arid areas of
Punjab
(Basmati Super transplanted in 1st Week of July)

Temperature
(C)
Baseline
1

Growing Season Length

(Days)
108
102

(increase over baseline)

100

3
4

98
92

89
38

Past trend of national average Rice

yield
(1960-2004)
2500

Yield (Kg/ha)

2000

1500

1000
y = 22.411x + 1040.1
t = (12.4)
(22.1)
500

Yield Increase over the 44 year period = 22.4 1.8 kg/ha/year

0
2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1964

1962

1960

Years
Rice Yield

Linear (Rice Yield)

39

Effect of rise in temperature on Basmati rice yields

in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan
(other factors remaining constant)

Rice Yield (kg/ha)

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
0

Temperature change (C)

5
40

Effect of rise in CO2 Concentration

on Basmati Rice Yield
(other factors remaining constant)

5200

Rice Yield (kg/ha)

5000
4800
4600
4400
4200
4000
350

525

700
CO2 Concentration (ppm)

875

1050
41

Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid

Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2
Scenarios
4400
Southern
Semi -arid
Plains A2

Rice yield (kg/ha)

4200
4000
3800

Southern
Semi-arid
Plains B2

3600
3400
3200
3000
1990

2025

2055

2085

Year

Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios

42

RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

There are two key ways of responding to

climate change:
- Adapt to the changes
- Reduce through mitigation measures
the sources (emission abatement) or
enhance the sinks (sequestration) of
GHG
43

RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Both adaptation and mitigation

measures are needed to ensure food
security

Mitigation measures are needed

because agriculture contributes to CC.
GHG emissions from the food and
agriculture sector contribute over 30%
of the current annual total emissions
(agriculture 13.5%, deforestation 17.4%).
44

RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

The most stringent efforts cannot

prevent further impacts of CC in the
next few decades, which makes
adaptation essential, particularly in
addressing near-term impacts

45

RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Two types of adaptation
Autonomous adaptation may be
insufficient given the projected
magnitude of future changes in climate.

Planned adaptation measures, i.e.,

response strategies, often multi-sectoral
and involving individual citizens and
national governments aimed at altering
the adaptive capacity of the agricultural
systems will be required.
46

CONCLUSION
o
o
o
o
o
o
o

Increasing temperature trends have shown reduced production

of wheat and rice
Rainfall may affect the rice production adversely while
increasing CO2 will affect positively
The growing season length has shrunk causing reduction in
crop productions
A2 scenario project increased yield in mountainous humid
region by 2080 whereas reduced yield in other zones
Though wheat projected yield in northern zones is likely to
increase but has little contribution to total yield
Projected yield of wheat and rice in A2 and B2 scenarios is
likely to reduce
Water availability is also likely to reduce and might have
47
adverse affects on social and agriculture sectors

CONCLUSION
o

Impacts of climate change are likely to be felt most severely

in developing countries like Pakistan because of resource
and infrastructure constraints.

The macro strategy may be rapid sustainable and equitable

development that will increase income levels, education and
technical skills, improve public food distribution, disaster
preparedness and management, health care systems and
reduce vulnerability.

Micro strategy involves the management of sectors most

sensitive to the climate change. This means developing new
institutions or modifying existing ones to promote
adaptation to climate change
48

Few Topics for Consideration

o Adaptation strategies for Agriculture sector in relation
to hydrometeorological changes in the region.
o Quantitaive Vulnerability assessment of hydrometeorological resources during next century.
o Suitable Micro Strategies to promote adaptation in
agri-sector to climate change.
o Climate Change Impact on renewable resources in the
region.
49

50