BMI Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013 (1) 22145049

Q3 2013
www.businessmonitor.com
GHANA
TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT
INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2017
ISSN 2041-6679
Published by:Business Monitor International
Ghana Telecommunications
Report Q3 2013
INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2017
Part of BMIs Industry Report & Forecasts Series

Published by: Business Monitor International
Copy deadline: June 2013
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Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013
CONTENTS
BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 7
BMI Industry View ..................................................................................................................................... 7
SWOT .................................................................................................................................... 9
Mobile ..................................................................................................................................................... 9
SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................
Politics ..................................................................................................................................................
Economic ...............................................................................................................................................
Business Environment ..............................................................................................................................
11
13
15
16
Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 18

Mobile ................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
ARPU .................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Fixed Line .............................................................................................................................................. 21

Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Broadband ............................................................................................................................................. 22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Industry Business Environment Overview ...................................................................... 25

Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings ..................................................................................................... 25
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Risk/Reward Ratings, Q313 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Ghana Risk/Reward Ratings ...................................................................................................................... 29
Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 31

Mobile ................................................................................................................................................... 31
Regional Perspective .............................................................................................................................. 31
Table: Ghana Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Key Developments .................................................................................................................................. 32

Market Growth ...................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Ghana Mobile Market ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Market Share ........................................................................................................................................ 35

Usage .................................................................................................................................................. 37
Networks .............................................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Comparison Of 3G Pricing, May 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Content ................................................................................................................................................ 41
Mobile Operator Data ............................................................................................................................ 45
Table: Market Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Table: MTN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Table: Vodafone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Table: Tigo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Page 4

Table: Airtel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Table: Glo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Table: Expresso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Mobile Content .......................................................................................................................................

Non-Voice Revenue Contribution Head Into Double Digits ............................................................................
Diversity Of Services ..............................................................................................................................
Mobile Crossovers Still In The Mix ............................................................................................................
M2M Debuts In Africa ............................................................................................................................
Fixed Line ..............................................................................................................................................
48
48
50
51
52
53
Table: Ghana Fixed-Line Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Broadband ............................................................................................................................................. 55
Table: Wireline Developments Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Industry Trends And Developments ................................................................................ 61

Table: Mobile Market Trends And Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Table: Value-Added Services Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Regulatory Development .................................................................................................. 64

Regulatory Overview ................................................................................................................................ 64
Table: Ghana's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Regulatory Developments ........................................................................................................................ 66
Competitive Landscape .................................................................................................... 69

Table: Key Players - Ghana Telecoms Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Table: Operators Financial Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Company Profiles .............................................................................................................. 70

Vodafone Ghana ..................................................................................................................................... 70
MTN Ghana ........................................................................................................................................... 74
Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 78

Regional Overview ...................................................................................................................................
Background ..........................................................................................................................................
2012 Achievements .................................................................................................................................
Financial Results ...................................................................................................................................
78
79
79
81
Table: Avanti Communications Group Results (GBP '000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 82

Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Table: Ghana's Rural and Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Glossary ............................................................................................................................. 86
Table: Glossary Of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 88
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ..................................................................................................... 89
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Table: Ratings Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Page 6
BMI Industry View

BMI Industry View
BMI View: Although mobile penetration crossed the 100% mark in the end of 2012, the market continued
to show considerable growth in Q113. Increasing mobile substitution continued to apply downward
pressure on the fixed-line connections, which showed slow and erratic growth in the first quarter of
2013. Strong uptake of data services in Q113 support our continued view that increased data usage will
drive growth in the telecoms sector over our forecast period to 2017. Outperformance of this sector will be
underpinned by ongoing investment in the extension of network coverage to underserved areas, improved
submarine cable connections, which will lower prices, and increasing availability of affordable 3G-enabled
devices.
Key Data
The Ghanaian mobile market grew by 3.3% q-o-q in Q113, up from 2.9% q-o-q in Q412.
Mobile ARPU contracted by 3.3% in Q113, reflecting continued fierce competition as Glo Ghana enters
its second year of operation in the mobile market.
The fixed-line market grew by 1% in Q113, maintaining the overall trend from 2012 of slow positive
subscriptions growth in the fixed-line sector.
Risk/ Reward Ratings
Ghana remains in fifth position on BMI's Risk/Reward ratings table this quarter, behind Nigeria, South
Africa, Gabon and Angola, despite a five-point increase in its industry rewards rating, due to increased
connectivity and uptake of data services. Ghana scores above the regional average in all four of our ratings
categories.
Key Trends And Developments
Ghana's operators continue to invest in improving their networks and broadband connectivity throughout
the country. MTN Ghana announced plans to invest around US$105mn upgrading and expanding its
network this year. The subsidiary of MTN Group is understood to be part of the investment that has been
reserved for a national fibre-optic cable and also for a metro fibre cable in Kumasi, Ghana to enhance data
services. MTN Ghana will also deploy 3G base stations and roll out 200 2G sites. Expresso, Ghana's
smallest operator, has announced plans to launch high-speed broadband services as its link to the African
Coast to Europe (ACE) submarine cable went live in May 2013. It is the last operator to gain access to a
Page 7
submarine cable, and it will use its improved competitive position to try and boost its market share, which
was less than 1% in March 2013.
These developments are paralleled by strong growth in the data sector, according to results on the mobile
data market for Q113 published by the National Communication Authority (NCA). The data showed
that 34.5% of mobile subscribers also use data services, and MTN has the lion's share of the market with
65%. The rest of the data market is split between Tigo, with a 14% share; Airtel with 10%; Vodafone with
7%; Glo with 3%; and finally Expresso with a 1% share.
Page 8
SWOT
Mobile
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Relatively strong subscriber growth continues, despite penetration having surpassed

the 100% mark at the end of 2012.
Regulatory regime is widely praised for its licensing procedure and clarity.
Vibrant competition, with six active mobile networks.
Sector plays host to several major international players, including South Africa's MTN,
India's Bharti Airtel, Luxembourg's Millicom and Vodafone of the UK.
Weaknesses
MTN still overly dominant in the market, with a voice market share of more than 45%
a data market share of 65% at the end of March 2013.
The sector continues to suffer from quality of service issues.
Market remains skewered towards lower spending prepaid users; this contributes to
low levels of ARPU.
Although ARPU has appeared fairly steady, and not as low as some markets in Africa,
it is still low and continues to experience downward pressure as new operators vie to
gain market share.
Price competition among operators in the prepaid sector could encourage further
growth of the prepaid market leading to lower ARPUs
Opportunities
There is considerable scope for expanding networks into underserved parts of the
country while, at the same time, improving the resilience of existing infrastructure.
As all operators have now have access to one or more submarine cables, there are
many more opportunities to offer advanced data services.
Ghana has a potentially large market for value-added services (VAS), if operators can
find the right way to tap it. Recent service launches by MTN, Airtel and Vodafone have
introduced mobile commerce and payments services to the country.
Page 9
SWOT Analysis - Continued
Threats
The commercial launch of sixth operator Globacom in April 2012 has increased
downward pressure on mobile ARPU.
Although it can be beneficial for subscribers, new competition increases the

possibility of a price war, which can damage operators in the long run.
The growth of the larger GSM operators could continue to threaten the survival of
smaller operator Expresso Telecom (Kasapa).
Page 10
SWOT
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Ghana has adopted a universal licensing scheme, which effectively means that all
those licensed to offer mobile services and mobile infrastructure can also move into
the fixed-line sector. This is likely to encourage investment, especially in the fixedwireless segment.
Limited competition exists in the fixed-line sector, with Airtel holding some small
fixed-line assets.
Competition exists in the internet access sector, where there are many licensed ISPs,
although only a handful of them are believed to be active.
The presence of Vodafone as a major international investor in the fixed-line market is

a plus. Vodafone has been doubted in the fixed-line sector so it is making great
efforts to prove itself.
Weaknesses
Fixed-line infrastructure is very limited.
Because mobile services have taken off so markedly, growth in the fixed-line sector
has recently stagnated.
Internet usage levels remain relatively low with penetration estimated at 17.8% at the
end of 2012.
Broadband services are still a long way beyond the means of most ordinary people;
penetration is estimated at just 1.4% at the end of 2012.
Ghana Telecom's National Communications Backbone Company has a monopoly

over the provision of national bandwidth.
The incumbent's monopoly over fixed network infrastructure limits the prospects of
investments in fixed next generation access networks.
Opportunities
Potential to issue additional licences for the construction of competing national

infrastructures; this would help to undermine the monopoly of NCBC and the
potentially harmful effects of having limited competition.
Page 11
The focus of much of the recent fixed-line investment has been on providing public
services so that more people will start to have access to communications services
through facilities like phone booths.
The award of broadband wireless access (BWA) licences offer significant

opportunities for expansion for voice and broadband internet services.
New live connections to submarine cables have increased Ghana's total broadband
capacity to 12.12Tbps; this will bring down prices, which should in turn help the
growth in the number of broadband subscriptions.
Threats
The growth of mobile broadband services could negatively affect the growth of fixed
broadband services such as ADSL and WiMAX.
Short- to medium-term danger that broadband prices may not fall far enough to make
such services accessible to ordinary Ghanaians.
Increased incidence of cable cuts threatens fixed network expansion to across the
country.
Page 12
Politics
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Ghana is widely regarded as a rapidly maturing African democracy, with peaceful

elections and transitions of power since the multi-party system was introduced in
1992.
The constitution prevents undue power concentration in any one ethnic or religious
group.
A free media climate has stimulated open and lively debate and aided the
democratisation process.
Relatively strong ethnic cohesion, in large part due to the tradition of secondary
boarding schools that mix children from all ethnic groups, has helped keep tensions common elsewhere in Africa - at bay.
Ghana's participation in many peacekeeping missions across the continent has

bolstered its image as a pan-African role model.
Ghanaians residing abroad are likely to inject a fresh external dynamic to domestic
politics, after the passage of the Representation of the People's Amendment Bill,
giving them the right to vote in national elections.
Weaknesses
Corruption is still a concern, both in the private and public arena.
The institutional architecture remains relatively weak, impeding the effective execution
of policy.
Intra- and inter-party squabbling is common and is an impediment to constructive

debate.
Opportunities
Oil revenues could be used by the authorities to redistribute wealth among the
populace.
Ghana could strengthen its institutional structures and accelerate the decentralisation
of power.
Page 13
Greater stimulus for a civil society, with more intense monitoring of incumbents also
adding to greater transparency.
Threats
There could be potential spillover effects (such as refugee inflows) from neighbouring
Cte d'Ivoire in instability erupts again.
Rife poverty and health problems (HIV/AIDS and ongoing problems such as the
waterborne Guinea worm disease) remain a threat.
An inability to close the developmental rift between the north and the south (urban
and rural areas) could lead to heightened tensions.
Page 14
Economic
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Ghana's natural resource riches are a boon in times of elevated commodity prices,
and there is scope to ramp up output further.
Multilateral debt relief has reduced Ghana's external liabilities significantly, freeing up
erstwhile debt servicing funds for pro-poor spending and deepened developmental
efforts.
Weaknesses
An overwhelming dependence on the agricultural sector makes the country vulnerable

to unpredictable weather forces.
The large informal sector eludes the government coffers' official statistics.
Ghana's narrow export portfolio, predominantly cocoa, oil and gold, exposes the
country to the vagaries of the commodity markets.
Heavy reliance on donor funds and poor revenue collection capacity are a strain on
government finances.
Opportunities
A more aggressive pursuit of structural reforms and further consolidation of

macroeconomic stability would help Ghana.
Domestic oil production should reduce reliance on oil imports over the long term.
The country's tourism potential could be tapped more aggressively.
Deepening the domestic capital markets - through the issuance of longer-dated

government bonds, for example - would facilitate private-sector access to credit.
Threats
Excessive government spending in 2012 derailed the drive towards fiscal

consolidation and led to the accumulation of a costly debt burden.
Any halt in aid inflows or the drying up of remittances from the Ghanaian Diaspora
would dent the outlook for the economy.
Page 15
Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
The absence of deep domestic tensions and political stability in an otherwise volatile
region means that the security risks are comparatively subdued.
The authorities have shown a commitment to offering better protection of intellectual

property rights.
A proactive reform drive, reflecting the pro-business ethos of the current

administration, has reduced red tape.
Ghana is a member of the Economic Community of West African States, with a

market of some 250mn people.
Weaknesses
Corruption remains a problem, as reflected in Ghana's ranking in Transparency

International's 2012 Corruption Perceptions Index (64th out of 176 countries).
While constitutionally independent, the judiciary remains inefficient, which is reflected

by the interest in alternative dispute resolution avenues.
Rudimentary infrastructure, still relatively poor information and communication

technology penetration, and a fickle energy supply pose difficulties.
Opportunities
Bureaucratic obstacles and red tape still impede business activity.
The labour market is broadly unskilled and relatively inflexible.
Consolidating the independence and integrity of the judiciary would enhance the
effectiveness of the court system.
Shoring up the domestic banking sector further would bring the broader financial
sector in line with international best practices.
Enhancing communications infrastructure would give wider access to information

technology and accelerate the spread of mobile telephony.
Mitigating energy shortages would aid business activity.
Page 16
Threats
There is a risk of tax rises to prop up government revenue streams given the
perennially weak fiscal position.
A resurgence of macroeconomic instability could raise the cost of borrowing.
Page 17
Industry Forecast
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecast
2010
2011
2012
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
No. of mobile phone subscribers ('000)
17,437 21,166 25,618 28,820 31,299 32,832 33,850 34,730
No. of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line

subscribers
6,275
7,434
8,989
10,309 11,252 11,791 12,072 12,325
No. of mobile phone subscribers/100

inhabitants
71.5
84.8
100.3
110.3
117.1
120.2
121.3
121.8
No. of 3G phone subscribers ('000)
346
680
1,250
2,063
2,995
4,183
5,448
6,750
3G market as % of entire mobile market
2.0
3.2
4.9
7.2
9.6
12.7
16.1
19.4
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI
The Ghanaian mobile market grew by 3.3% q-o-q in
Industry Forecast - Mobile
Q113, with 844,000 net additions, to reach

26.462mn subscribers, according to regulatory data.
2010-2017
This was a continuation of the impressive growth

recorded in 2011 and 2012, and slightly better than
40,000
2.9% q-o-q growth in Q412. The market finished

100
Q113 with a penetration rate of 101.3%, up from
20,000
84.8% in March 2012 and 100.3% last quarter.

75
Although we expect there is still a fair amount of
since the market reached the 100% penetration mark.
2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012
2011
growth has slowed down in the last two quarters
0
2010
growth potential in the Ghanaian market, the pace of
No. of mobile phone subscribers ('000) (LHS)

No. of 3G & 4G phone subscribers ('000) (LHS)
No. of mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants (RHS)
The market continues to be boosted by promotional

activities, a trend observed throughout 2011 and
2012. BMI notes that the country's operators
adopted this strategy to encourage existing and new

subscribers to register their lines during the mandatory SIM registration exercise. We expect promotional
activities to continue in 2013 and beyond, largely driven by an increase in competition in the mobile market
following the launch of commercial voice and data services by sixth licensee Globacom Ghana in April
Page 18
2012, and Expresso's connection to the ACE submarine cable in May 2013. We expect these developments
to increase downward pressure on mobile tariffs, especially with the market penetration rate now above the
100% mark.
Our mobile forecast remains unchanged since last quarter and envisages growth to slow down significantly
in 2013 compared to the two previous years. Our view is based on the likelihood of inactive SIM
discounting considering that Ghana has fully implemented the mandatory SIM registration exercise and will
require operators disconnect inactive SIMs on a regular basis. We expect the number of mobile subscribers
to reach 28.8mn by the end of 2013 and 34.7mn by 2017. We also forecast the mobile penetration rate to
rise from 100.3% in 2012 to around 122% by 2017.
Ghana's 3G market is becoming increasingly competitive with five of the country's mobile operators MTN, Vodafone, Airtel, Tigo and Expresso - investing considerable resources to upgrade and expand their
3G networks during 2012. We believe this move is partly driven by the rising demand for broadband
services, especially over mobile networks, and the arrival of Globacom, which claims to have built the
country's biggest and fastest mobile data network for its operations.
We expect the arrival of submarine cables Main One, WACS, GLO-1 and ACE, along with the increasing
availability of low-cost data enabled handsets, to drive the uptake of 3G services. Although the National
Communications Authority (NCA) published figures stating there were a total of 8.9mn data subscribers in
Ghana in March 2012, because of differing definitions, BMI maintains its much more conservative estimate
1.25mn 3G subscribers in 2012 and 2.06mn in 2013. While the NCA is understood to include basic 2G
mobile data users in its figures, BMI's figures only include advanced 3G mobile phone users.
Meanwhile, limited fixed broadband infrastructure means more users are likely to access the internet using
mobile devices and USB-based internet dongles. BMI expects these factors to boost 3G subscriptions over
the next five years. We have not adjusted our 3G figured this quarter, maintaining our forecast of around
6.75mn 3G subscribers in 2017, equivalent to 19.4% of the total mobile subscriber base. We believe 3G
services will play an increasingly important role in the competitive landscape as operators aim to diversify
revenue away from basic voice and messaging services.
Page 19
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecast
Market Average ARPU

(GHS)
MTN (GHS)
2010
2011
2012
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
7.6
6.0
5.5
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.1
10.1
9.8
7.8
7.1
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.2
The BMI ARPU forecast is based on the weighted
Industry Forecast - ARPU (GHS)
average of monthly ARPUs published by mobile

operators. In Ghana, MTN Ghana is the only
2010-2017
operator that publishes regular updates of its ARPU

10
figures. The latest available ARPU figures for Airtel

Ghana and Tigo Ghana relate to December 2009
7.5
and December 2010 respectively. Our overall ARPU

forecast is therefore based on actual ARPU data
from MTN and estimates for the other operator

based on their historical ARPU data. There are no
2.5
available ARPU figures for Vodafone Ghana,

Globacom and Expresso.
2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012
2011
2010
Using the latest data from MTN, BMI calculates

monthly blended ARPU in Ghana's mobile market
was GHS6 at the end of December 2012, from
GHS7.6 at the end of 2011. Competition in Ghana's

mobile market intensified in April 2012 with the launch of commercial operations by the country's sixth
network operator Globacom. This accelerated ARPU erosion in the country, which has been driven in the
last few years by price competition and promotional offers.
MTN reported ARPU of US$5.9 in Q113, down slightly from US$6.1 at the end of Q412. MTN's
continuing decline in ARPU levels coincides with our forecast for 2013. . BMI believes MTN has the
highest ARPU rate in Ghana partly because of its wide range of value-added services, including mobile
payments. We expect its main rivals to expand their VAS portfolio to drive revenue growth amid declining
Page 20
voice revenue. Although such higher value services could help stabilise ARPU, we caution that the possible
launch of commercial services by the sixth licence holder Globacom, poses downside risk to mobile ARPU
growth in Ghana. We expect overall monthly blended ARPU to reach GHS5.1 by 2015 and to remain
constant between then and 2017.
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecast
No. of main telephone lines ('000)

No. of main telephone lines/100
inhabitants
2010
2011
2012
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
277.9
284.7
285.0
279.6
278.2
278.4
280.4
281.8
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Ghana's fixed-line market grew by 1% q-o-q in

Q113 reaching a total of 287,909 subscribers,
Industry Forecast - Fixed Line
according to data from the National
2010-2017
Communications Authority (NCA). Although this

300
1.5
was slower than the 3.7% q-o-q in Q412, it is in line

with 0.9% y-o-y growth at the end of December
1.25
200
2012 and a good performance in view of continued

1
downward pressure on fixed-line subscriptions,
100
0.75
especially from fixed-to-mobile substitution. We

2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012
0.5
2011
over our forecast period, through to 2017, as demand
0
2010
retain our view of declining fixed-line connections
wanes over strong mobile voice and data uptick and

limited investment in network infrastructure
No. of main telephone lines in service ('000) (LHS)

No. of main telephone lines/100 Inhabitants (RHS)
development.
Ghana's fixed-line penetration was 1.1% at the end
of March 2013, unchanged from December 2012 and

December 2011, when there were 284,981 and 284,721 active fixed-lines in the country. The market's
growth of just 0.9% in 2012, compared to growth of 2.4% during 2011 and 3.9% in 2010, is in line with our
view that sustained growth is not likely. Meanwhile, subscriber numbers have continued to fluctuate in the
Page 21
first three months of 2013, making it difficult to identify a growth pattern and forecast future
performance. Despite a small amount of growth in Q113, we maintain our expectation that the market will
decline in 2013 and largely remain flat over our forecast period. By 2017 we expect 281,800 subscribers,
equivalent to a penetration rate of around 1.0%.
We once again emphasise that we are cautious when forecasting the way in which Ghana's fixed-line market
will develop, considering the continued fluctuation in subscriber figures, for which the regulator and
operators have not provided any explanations. Over the next few years, we expect the fixed-line sector to
continue to largely remain flat. It should be remembered that because mobile telephony is becoming a mass
market commodity, there is an increased likelihood that mobile substitution will become a stronger force for
Ghana's fixed-line market to contend with.
BMI believes the continued growth of Ghana's fixed-line sector over the next few years will depend on
multiple factors. These include the extent to which Vodafone Ghana can move forward with more of its
modernisation plan. Continued growth will also depend on whether the market sees the arrival of new
competition and the deployment of new fixed-wireless technologies. Meanwhile, we expect operators to
focus on business customers in the future to take advantage of the growing demand for corporate telecoms
services in Ghana.
Broadband
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecast
2010
2011
2012
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2,032
3,251
4,550
5,556
6,400
7,083
7,713
7,986
No. of internet users/100 inhabitants
8.3
13
17.8
21.3
24.0
25.9
27.6
28.0
No. of broadband internet subscribers ('000)
107
250
350
509
707
908
1,136
1,384
No. of broadband internet subscribers/100

inhabitants
0.4
1.0
1.4
1.9
2.6
3.3
4.1
4.9
No. of internet users ('000)
Page 22
Ghana's internet sector has significant growth

potential in view of the growing demand for
Industry Forecast - Internet

2010-2017
advanced data services in the country. At the time of

writing, there were no new data available on the
10,000
7.5
broadband sector. By the end of 2012, the sector had

largely underperformed the mobile sector, with
broadband penetration at just 1.4% compared to
5
5,000
mobile penetration of 100.3%. We have highlighted
2.5
some of the factors limiting the sector in our
bandwidth. However, Ghana's connections to

international bandwidth on submarine cable systems
2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012
0
2011
wireline sector and very expensive international
0
2010
previous reports, including lack of competition in the
No. of internet users ('000) (LHS)

No. of broadband internet subscribers ('000) (LHS)
No. of broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants (RHS)
have improved drastically since 2011, which we

believe bodes well for the uptake of broadband
services over our forecast period, ending in 2017.
We have not changed our forecast since Q213, and maintain our expectation that there will be around 5.6mn
regular internet users at the end of 2013, a penetration rate of 21.3%. This is based on the increasing use of
mobile access technologies, and continued intense competition in the mobile sector as the sixth mobile
licensee Glo Ghana began its second year of business and Expresso's connection to the African Coast to
Europe (ACE) submarine cable went live in Q213. By the end of 2017, we expect the number of internet
users to have risen to 8mn, or 28% of the population.
Based on our estimates, the broadband sector grew by more than 130% during 2011. We attribute this
growth, albeit from a low base, to increasing competition in the internet sector. However, the low
broadband penetration rate implies that most of the country's internet users access the internet using public
sites, including offices, schools and internet cafes.
We believe the prospects exist for strong broadband user growth over the next few years. In addition to
internet cafs, we expect the imminent arrival of many low cost smartphones options on the African market
to drive growth of internet access through wireless broadband networks. Meanwhile, the Ghanaian
government is pushing ahead with a computerisation programme, which could see around 560,000 laptops
distributed to schools and research institutions by the end of 2013. We also expect this to boost the take-up
Page 23
of broadband services in the country. Our revised forecast envisages broadband subscription of around
1.384mn by 2017, equivalent to a penetration rate of 4.9%.
Our broadband subscriber forecast takes into account the impact which mobile broadband services are
having on the sector. Meanwhile, the spread of mobile broadband services is also stimulating a rise in
internet usage levels. Mobile broadband services connect to the internet wirelessly though a high-speed (3G/
HSPA) network and are accessible from a wide range of devices, including 3G-enabled mobile phones,
netbooks, smartphones and USB sticks.
We believe operators will continue to promote their mobile broadband services, coupled with the launch of
several undersea cables extending along the West African coastline to gradually lower the wholesale and
retail cost of international bandwidth and fuel subscriber growth for the remainder of our forecast period to
2017.
Page 24
Industry Business Environment Overview

Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
As we move into our new forecast period for
2013-2017, there have been significant upgrades to
our industry rewards scores, but scores for country
Sub-Saharan Africa Average RRR

Scores (Points)
Q313
risks and country rewards are unchanged for the

quarter. Most countries have received a boost to the
former category as a result of the strong growth we
expect to see over the next five years and in some
cases this has led to increases as high as 12.5 points,
leading to movements up and down the table. This
has resulted in the average industry rewards score
rising from 33.0 in the previous quarter to 36.7 and
has contributed to an overall increase in telecoms
ratings, from 41.3 to 43.3.
Nigeria and South Africa retain the top two spots
Source: BMI
respectively, separated by only 0.1 point and both

have increased their industry rewards scores by 2.4 points. Nigeria's net additions totalled just under 6mn
for Q412, representing the highest subscriber base increase since December 2008. This demonstrates the
growth potential of Nigeria, and, with only 67.8% mobile penetration rate and a population of 166mn, there
remain roughly 50mn Nigerians still without a mobile phone. Our CAGR forecast for the five-year period
stands at 11.1%, and we expect it will remain a regional outperformer during 2013-2017. For South Africa,
ARPUs remain among the highest in the region and experienced a boost this quarter, courtesy of market
leader Vodacom. We believe a ruling from ICASA to proceed with mobile termination rate (MTRs) cuts
despite protests from Cell C will sustain these high levels in the long term, though may suffer short-term
decline. The regulator's firm stance is a positive sign for market competition and continued service
development.
Page 25
Angola now has the highest industry rewards score

in the region, and, by virtue of an increase to
Sub-Saharan Africa ARPU
industry risks, it moves into third place at the
ARPU (US$), Q313
expense of Gabon. Similar to Nigeria, Angola has a

low penetration of about 70%, and our outlook for
the next five years forecasts a CAGR of 22.6%. The
state's influence on the main two operators is still a
concern. However, the reduction of interest stakes
and a desire to expand LTE and broadband to
underserved areas has led BMI to upgrade its
industry risks score by 10 points.
Other countries that saw increases to industry risks

scores include Cameroon (10 points), Kenya (10),
Mauritius (10), Uganda (5) and Tanzania (5). In
Souce: BMI
Cameroon, this was due to the issuance of a third

mobile network licence to Vietnamese operator
Viettel, breaking the MTN-Orange duopoly. The duopoly has stunted market growth, through
uncompetitive pricing and limited network coverage, so the entrance of Viettel will add a new dynamic to
the market. In Kenya, the government has made moves to becoming a knowledge-based economy,
launching its new ICT master plan in February 2013, the main goal of which is to connect every Kenyan
citizen to the internet. The plan has had an immediate effect, starting up the process of digital switchover for
terrestrial television, to be completed before the end of the year. Smaller increases of five points were seen
in Uganda and Tanzania, the latter of which introduced regulations aimed at improving the oversight of
mobile payment services. We believe this will instil security and confidence in the market, as well as define
the boundaries between traditional banking sectors and mobile payment service providers. Meanwhile, the
Ugandan regulatory authority, UCC, has been active in encouraging network sharing to reduce costs,
resulting in a partnership for satellite broadband services between operators Yahsat and TruIT. These
industry risk increases demonstrate the wide-range of options available to regulators and governments to
improve competition and universal access in the market, improving the environment for operators and
consumers.
There has been some movement at the bottom of the table, as Mali has improved its industry rewards score
by 12.5 points, moving it up from 25th to 22nd in our rankings. This places it ahead of Sudan and South
Page 26
Sudan, both of which were unchanged in any category during the quarter, and Ethiopia, which has increased
its industry rewards score by 2.5 as a result of the changing forecast periods. Burundi remains rooted to the
bottom of the table, despite low penetration and a competitive environment. Instead, low income levels, low
urbanisation and limited investment are resulting in slow growth, and ARPUs of only US$3, one of the
lowest in the region. Mali's 12.5-point improvement allows it to leapfrog these countries, after a quarter of
strong growth. The licensing of a third mobile operator and new WiMAX operator in the broadband market
also helps to give the score a significant boost. However, the ongoing conflict in the northern part of the
country and the uncertainty surrounding the outcome keep the country risk scores low and prevent Mali
from moving up higher.
Other big gains come from Zimbabwe, with a 10point industry risk increase, Mozambique (7.5) and
Industry And Country Risk The

Difference-Makers
Senegal (7.5). Proposed legislation from regulator
Country Comparison KPIs, Q313
PORTRAZ to grant converged licences and from the

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) to facilitate
mobile banking offer upside potential for the
industry, with our forecast predicting an 8.5%
CAGR until 2017. A large boost in ARPU for
Vodacom Mozambique helped improve the
market's score, as does an upcoming auction for
800MHz spectrum. Senegal outperformed
expectations throughout 2012, with Sonatel
reporting impressive annual results, resulting in
significant upgrades to our forecasts.
Source: BMI
Tanzania, Sudan, South Sudan and Democratic

Republic of Congo (DRC), where no improvement
to industry risks was recorded, generally show
slowing growth, or have significant downside risks to their outlooks. For example, the DRC remains the
only country not connected to the West African Cable System, whereas South Sudan's underdeveloped
industry will continue to hamper its growth prospects. No changes have been made to country risks or
country rewards scores, indicating that there have been no major changes to our views. Ongoing instability
in countries such as Mali and South Sudan should ensure that this does not persist into another quarter and
we would expect to see changes in both directions next quarter.
Page 27
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Risk/Reward Ratings, Q313
Industry
Rewards
Country
Rewards
Industry
Risks
Country
Risks
Telecoms
Score
Rank
Previous
Rank
Nigeria
52.3
45.6
70.0
65.1
55.2
South Africa
54.6
51.6
60.0
57.5
55.1
Angola
55.0
57.3
30.0
68.2
53.8
Gabon
42.8
73.3
50.0
58.3
53.7
Ghana
45.0
53.3
70.0
56.5
52.5
Botswana
38.5
59.3
60.0
71.8
51.8
Senegal
42.5
50.0
60.0
57.6
49.2
Cote d'Ivoire
40.0
53.3
60.0
53.4
48.3
Cameroon
35.0
60.0
50.0
51.1
45.8
10
Rwanda
38.0
36.7
70.0
59.2
45.7
10
Kenya
37.5
41.7
60.0
53.7
44.3
11
12
Zambia
33.3
40.8
60.0
63.0
43.6
12
11
Mauritius
35.0
38.3
50.0
58.5
41.6
13
17
Uganda
33.3
36.7
55.0
60.8
41.5
14
15
Namibia
33.8
45.3
40.0
57.9
41.2
15
13
Tanzania
28.5
39.3
65.0
56.4
40.8
16
14
Mauritania
35.0
41.4
40.0
45.9
39.0
17
18
Mozambique
30.0
37.8
50.0
52.1
38.2
18
20
Zimbabwe
40.0
39.0
40.0
27.9
37.9
19
22
Democratic Republic of Congo
30.9
32.1
70.0
36.6
37.9
20
16
Malawi
27.0
36.7
60.0
50.7
37.9
21
19
Mali
35.0
39.0
40.0
34.8
36.7
22
25
Ethiopia
35.0
40.3
10.0
51.6
35.1
23
21
Sudan
26.1
43.7
40.0
31.7
33.3
24
23
South Sudan
27.5
47.0
20.0
40.4
33.1
25
24
Burundi
22.5
30.0
60.0
33.5
31.6
26
26
Average
36.7
45.0
51.5
52.1
43.3
Scores are weighted as follows: 'Rewards': 70%, of which Industry Rewards 65% and Country Rewards 35%; 'Risks':
30%, of which Industry Risks 40% and Country Risks 60%. The 'Rewards' rating evaluates the size and growth potential
of a telecoms market in any given state, and country's broader economic/socio-demographic characteristics, which
impact the industry's development; the 'Risks' rating evaluates industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the
state's political/economic profile. Source: BMI
Page 28
Ghana Risk/Reward Ratings

Ghana remains in fifth position on BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings table this quarter, despite its aggregate score
jumping to 52.5, up from 50.2 in our previous update. The country is behind Nigeria, South Africa, Gabon
and Angola on our table, scoring above the regional average in all four categories of our telecoms ratings.
Ghana's improved score on BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings this quarter is due to a better score in the industry
rewards category, increasing from a score of 40.0 in the previous quarter to a 45.0 this quarter. Ghana's
industry rewards has gone up as a result of newly released data from the regulator showing strong uptake of
data services and a new connection to international bandwidth on the African Coast to Europe submarine
cable. Both of these developments strengthen our optimistic forecast for the broadband sector, to 2017,
which is based on the rapid expansion of wireless data networks, the government's computerisation
programme and lower cost of international bandwidth. Moreover, though the country's mobile penetration
rate has surpassed the 100% mark, its mobile market continues to record strong subscriber
growth. However, these factors are counterbalanced by the increasing downward pressure on ARPUs and,
consequently, tightening operating margins.
Ghana's relatively high country rewards score remains unchanged since our last update, at 53.3, reflecting
its positive economic outlook. The country has a nascent oil and gas industry, and we expect strong GDP
growth over the next few years. This will increase the rate of urbanisation and, potentially, boost
employment and income levels in the country. These factors, according to our country rewards
methodology, have the potential to ease the rollout of next generation network infrastructure as well as drive
demand for high-value telecoms services.
Ghana's industry risks score remains unchanged from our previous update. Despite having a relatively
liberalised market, and the presence of competition in it mobile telephony, fixed-line and internet access
segments, Ghana's wireline telecoms market remains dominated by the incumbent operator Vodafone
Ghana (formerly Ghana Telecom). Ghana's relatively strong score in this category reflects the privatised
status of Vodafone Ghana, which has opened the door to private investment and bodes well for the future
development of the country's infrastructure. However, Vodafone Ghana continues to have monopoly control
over the provision of national backbone infrastructure; this is seen by some as a problem which needs to be
overcome in order to ensure the future growth of the internet sector. In addition to introducing competition
in the provision of national infrastructure, there is a need to enhance the level of competition at the local
access level, not least through the licensing of new broadband wireless access (BWA) providers. Recent
developments suggest that progress is being made in this area, with the issuance of BWA licences.
Meanwhile, the mobile market, in terms of voice and data services, continues to be dominated by South
Page 29
Africa's MTN. Steps to encourage an increased level of mobile market competition include the introduction
of mobile number portability and the development of a clearer regulatory framework on the construction of
telecoms masts.
Ghana's country risks score, at 56.5, reflects our positive view of the country's political and economic
environment in 2013 and beyond. Ghana successfully held competitive and keenly contested elections in
December 2012. John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) emerged victorious
as the people's elected choice. The NDC also obtained a parliamentary majority in the elections. On the
economic front, we hold a positive outlook on private consumption growth, anticipating that the rapid
growth of key sectors, including oil and gas, infrastructure and retail, will generate wealth and consequently
boost consumer spending. Granted, this effect will be unevenly spread across the country, with pockets of
growth likely to develop around key projects, and the southern area between Accra, Kumasi and SekondiTakoradi (known as the 'golden triangle') is likely to be especially prosperous. Furthermore, the high
interest rate environment and relative weakness of the cedi may dampen demand somewhat. Nevertheless,
we expect strong growth in aggregate private consumption, forecasting an increase of 8.0% in real terms in
2013 (contributing 5.3 percentage points (pp) to headline growth), followed by an annual average of 6.5%
over 2014-2017.
Page 30
Market Overview
Mobile
Regional Perspective
Ghana's mobile penetration rate reached 100% for the first time at the end of December 2012. This gave the
country the seventh highest mobile penetration rate in the region at the end of that period. Over our forecast
period, through to 2017, the country's mobile market is expected to record a CAGR of around 4.6%, the
19th highest in the region. The relatively slow growth reflects increasing market saturation as well as the
likelihood for operators to focus on high-value mobile data services in the future to offset declining revenue
growth from traditional voice services. Ghana's 3G penetration and ARPU were in the bottom half of our
regional table in 2012, although there has been a massive surge in uptake of 3G services over the last year.
Regional Perspective
Mobile Penetration (LHS) And Key Market Indicators, 2013 (RHS)
f = forecast. Source: BMI
Page 31
Table: Ghana Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2012
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Ghana
CAGR 2012-2017 (%)
Rank (Out of 26)
6.3
7.5
15
100.3
76.4
3G as % of entire market* (%)
4.9
8.4
14
ARPU (US$)*
4.7
7.1
14
Mobile penetration (%)
*= Out of 21 countries. Source: BMI
Key Developments
Expresso announced plans to launch high-speed broadband services as its link to the Africa Coast to
Europe (ACE) submarine cable went live in May 2013. Expresso Telecom is a partial owner of the
17,000km-long cable, and will be solely responsible maintenance of the cable in Ghana and Nigeria and
manage the construction, operation and maintenance of cable landing stations in Mauritania, Senegal and
Guinea Conakry.
In May 2013, the National Communication Authority (NCA) published results on mobile data market
shares for the first quarter of 2013. The data showed that 34.5% of mobile subscribers also use data
services, and MTN has the lion's share of the market with 65%. The rest of the data market is split
between Tigo, with a 14% share; Airtel with 10%; Vodafone with 7%; Glo with 3%; and finally
Expresso with a 1% share.
In March 2013, MTN announced plans to invest around US$105mn in upgrading and expanding its network
in 2013. The operator is rolling out terrestrial fibre-optic cable networks across the country to enhance data
services. MTN Ghana also plans to deploy new 3G base stations and around 200 2G sites.
Page 32
Market Growth
Ghana Mobile Growth
There were 26.462mn mobile subscribers in Ghana
2010-2013
at the end of March 2013, according to market data

published by the National Communications
Authority (NCA). This was a growth of 3.3% q-o-q
during Q113, and a y-o-y growth rate of 22%. This
brought the country's mobile penetration rate to
101.3% at the end of March 2013. BMI believes the
strong performance over the last year, despite the
introduction of mandatory SIM registration in 2011,
was mainly due to the increase in competition in the
mobile market following the launch of commercial
services by sixth operator Globacom in April 2012.
Although Ghana's mobile penetration rate is high by
regional standards, we expect subscriber growth to
Source: BMI, NCA, operators
remain strong over our forecast period, through to

2017, considering the low mobile penetration rate in rural areas where majority of the population live. BMI
notes that some operators are beginning to implement strategies for rural roll-out to take advantage of the
significant subscriber growth opportunities in underserved areas. An example of this is the partnership
between Tigo and Ireland-based firm Altobridge to extend mobile services to underserved areas using the
latter's low-cost solution specifically designed for small communities of less than 1,500 residents. The
project, which has so far recorded impressive results, is also supported by the Ghana Investment Fund for
Electronic Communications (GIFEC), an agency of the Ministry of Communications.
Table: Ghana Mobile Market ('000)
Q112
MTN
Q212
Q312
Q412
Y-o-Y
Change
Q113
10,394
10,758
11,270
11,735
12,024
238
364
512
465
289
48
46
45.3
45.8
45.4
4,524
4,819
5,027
5,259
5,609
Net additions
248
295
208
232
350
Market share (%)
20.9
20.6
20.2
20.5
21.2
Net additions
Market share (%)
Vodafone
15.7
24
Page 33
Ghana Mobile Market ('000) - Continued
Q112
Tigo
Q212
Q312
Q412
Y-o-Y
Change
Q113
3,642
3,553
3,758
3,698
3,676
Net additions
-280
-89
205
-60
-22
Market share (%)
16.8
15.2
15.1
14.4
13.9
2,897
3,022
3,041
3,192
3,384
Net additions
271
125
19
151
192
Market share (%)
13.4
12.9
12.2
12.5
12.8
Airtel
Glo
na
991
1,610
1,568
1,607
Net additions
na
991
619
-42
39
Market share (%)
na
4.2
6.5
6.1
6.1
202
227
178
166
162
Net additions
16
25
-49
-12
-4
Market share (%)
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.6
21,660
23,370
24,884
25,618
26,462
Expresso
Total Subscriptions
0.9
16.8
100
-19.8
22.2
na = not applicable. Source: BMI, NCA, operators
Page 34
Market Share
MTN continued to be Ghana's largest mobile
operator by subscribers at the end of March 2013,
Market Shares
2010-2013
with a total of 12.024mn subscribers and a market

share of 45.4%. Although the operator had a net gain
of 289,000 subscribers in the quarter, this was
significantly lower than its net gain of 465,000 in
Q412 and lower than Vodafone's net gain of
350,000 subscribers for the same quarter. Despite
showing good subscriber growth throughout 2012,
the operator's market share has been trending down
since Q310, partly because of the commercial launch
of mobile services by the sixth mobile licensee, Glo
Ghana. MTN's market share fell by 2.6pps in the 12
months to March 2013.
Source: BMI, NCA, operators
MTN's performance in Q412, which gave it a 63.4%

of total net additions that quarter, was remarkable considering that the regulator had suspended the sale of
new MTN SIM cards in early December because the deteriorating quality of service provided by the
operator. The ban lasted for the whole of December, including the busy Christmas period, and was only
lifted in late January 2013. However, it appears the operator's rivals failed to capitalise on this to boost their
subscriber bases. BMI calculates that the remaining five mobile operators jointly accounted for the
remaining 36.6% of net additions in Q412.
Vodafone remained in second place in Q113, with a subscriber base of 5.609mn. The operator recorded net
additions of 350,000 subscribers in Q113, significantly higher than its average quarterly net additions of
246,000 in 2012. The operator's position appears to be secured for now as its two closest rivals, Tigo and
Airtel, are not. Tigo, which Vodafone beat to second position in Q411, recorded net losses for six out of the
seven quarters to Q113, while Airtel's subscriber acquisitions over the past two years have been largely
inconsistent. Vodafone's market share of 21.2% at the end of Q113 was up from 20.5% in the previous
quarter.
As mentioned above, Tigo underperformed its rivals over the two years to December 2012. BMI calculates
that the operator's subscriber base of 3.676mn at the end of Q113 reflects a decrease of 22,000 from the
previous quarter and 426,000 from a peak base of 4.102mn recorded at the end of Q211. As a result, the
Page 35
operator's market share fell to 13.9% at the end of Q113, from 14.4% in the previous quarter and 16.8% a
year earlier.
For its part, Airtel had 3.384mn subscribers at the end of Q113. This was a growth of 6% q-o-q and 16.8%
y-o-y, and reflected net additions of 487,000 subscribers during the 12 months to March 2013. Although
Airtel reported only one quarterly net loss in the two years to Q113, its subscriber gains have been less
consistent that those of its major rivals, resulting in a fairly flat market share since the beginning of 2012.
The operator had a market share of 12.8% at the end of Q113, up from 12.5% in the previous quarter, but
down from 13.4% a year earlier.
The launch of Globacom's (Glo Ghana) operations in Ghana has significantly increased competition in the
country's mobile market, in line with BMI's expectations. This is mainly evidenced by investments in
network infrastructure development and, perhaps more worrying for the five incumbent operators, the reemergence of intense price competition. Glo Ghana, owned by Nigeria-based Globacom Limited, launched
commercial operations in April 2012, almost four years after winning the country's sixth mobile licence in
mid-2008. BMI had predicted Glo would adopt an aggressive marketing and pricing strategy to gain a
foothold in the market, considering the significant changes in the market dynamics between 2008 and 2012,
including the rise in the mobile penetration rate from just 40.1% to more than 85%, the reduction of
interconnection rates and the implementation of mobile number portability and mandatory SIM registration.
Glo's aggressive marketing strategy involved number reservation by prospective customers many months
ahead of its commercial launch and sponsorship of popular sports and entertainment events in the country.
Glo also became the only operator to launch operations with 100% network coverage, with advanced
mobile broadband technology and capacity for up to 10mn lines. However, it is the firm's pricing strategy
that has unnerved its rivals. Glo initially launched low-priced packages, and in September 2012 introduced a
new long-term tariff plan called Glo Gista that allows subscribers to make on-net and off-net calls for
GHS0.06 (US$0.03) a minute. By comparison, the firm's rivals charge between GHS0.084 and GHS0.144
for standard on-net calls, with off-net calls charged at higher rates in many cases.
BMI notes that Glo's strategy has yielded strong results in a relatively short period. According to regulatory
data, Glo had 468,508 subscribers after one month of launching commercial services in Ghana, a market
share of 2.1% at the end of May 2012. The operator's subscriber base grew almost fourfold in the following
four months to reach 1.568mn by the end of December 2012, with its market share expanding by a similar
proportion to 6.1% at the end of the same period. Despite recording a net subscription loss of 42,000 in
Q412, likely due to the discounting of lines that became inactive upon the expiration of promotional tariffs
Page 36
introduced soon after it launched commercial operations, Glo recorded 39,000 net additions in Q113 and
managed to maintain its 6.1% market share. Glo is now in 5th position in terms of market share, ahead
of Expresso and could challenge for a higher position if it continues to grow at the same pace registered in
its first six months of operations.
Kasapa, now rebranded as Expresso, occupies the smallest share of the market. This is the third name
change for the company, following the change from Celltel to Kasapa in 2003. After five consecutive
quarterly net losses, Expresso recorded net additions of 16,000 subscribers in Q112 to take its subscriber
base above the 200,000 mark. In Q212 it expanded this further adding 25,000 new subscribers to finish the
quarter with 227,000 subscribers. However, the operator's net additions of 41,000 subscribers in H112 was
offset by net subscription loss of 61,000 subscribers in the three quarters to March 2013, bringing its
subscriber base to 162,000 and market share to just 0.6%.
Based on the NCA's figures and data reported by the operators, we calculate Ghana's mobile market
registered 4.802mn net additions in the 12 months to March 2013. This was a considerable improvement on
the 3.730mn registered in 2011. On a quarterly basis, the market added 884,000 subscribers in Q113, an
improvement compared to 734,000 in Q412, and 494,000 in Q112, but still much lower than 1.711mn in
Q212 and 1.514mn in Q312.
Usage
Previously, MTN and Zain were the only Ghanaian
MTN ARPU (US$)

2010-2013
mobile operators that consistently reported ARPU

figures. However, since its acquisition by India's
Bharti Airtel in Q210, ARPU data has ceased to be
available for Zain. Nevertheless, the general trend
portrayed by MTN continues to be one of declining
ARPU. This is a characteristic that has been seen
across Africa in recent quarters. For example,
MTN's ARPU stood at US$14 throughout the first
half of 2008; this was in line with Q407. However,
the operator's ARPU has been on a downtrend since
the second half of 2008, falling to US$5.9 in March
2013.
Source: BMI, MTN
Page 37
Networks
3G
The first commercial 3G services for non-business customers were only launched in early 2009. Although
uptake of 3G services was slow until 2011, since 2012 the market has picked up significantly. BMI believes
that the current market for 3G services is still relatively small. We estimate that, by the end of 2012, Ghana
had around 550,000 mobile customers with 3G handsets; this was equivalent to 2.6% of the total mobile
customer base. All six of the country's operators offer 3G services, but in March 2013 MTN dominated the
market with a 65% share. BMI believes MTN's dominance in the data market is a combination of its
leading position in the voice market and high-quality network coverage. We expect the South African
operator to face stronger competition in the future, though, as all operators now have access to international
bandwidth on submarine cables. We believe increased connectivity has also had an important impact on the
fast-paced growth of the data market over the last year.
It should be remembered that not all mobile customers with 3G handsets are active users of 3G services. To
a large extent, this is a reflection of the relatively low spending power of most Ghanaians. However, at the
top end of the market, the operators will no doubt find a small user base for value-added services, and this
will help prop up ARPUs, which will continue to face pressure from increased competition. Although
increased usage of data services will help maintain ARPUs, competition will also force data revenues down,
especially with all six operators offering 3G services.
As of May 2013, all operators in Ghana had access to one or more submarine cables and offered advanced
3G data services. In May 2013, Expresso was the last operator to launch advanced 3G services on the back
of the African Coast to Europe (ACE) submarine cable, of which it is a partial owner. Glo has access to its
own Glo-1 cable and MTN signed a deal to access the West Africa Cable System (WACS) in March 2012.
Main One is the fourth major submarine cable providing connectivity to Ghanaian mobile operators.
Market leader MTN Ghana launched 3G services for residential customers in February 2009. MTN reported
that it had 210 3G base stations and 166,000 3G subscribers at the end of 2010. The operator did not
disclose the number of 3G subscribers on its network at the end of 2011, although it reported that, by the
end of the year, it had at total of 335 3G base stations on its network, and that data accounted for 5.5% of its
total revenues. At the end of 2012, MTN reported a 96.1% y-o-y increase in data revenues and a total of
1.3mn 3G devices and 800 3G base stations on its network. According to the NCA, in March 2013 MTN
had a total of 5.82mn data subscribers. The operator attributed this massive growth in data services to
improved handsets, lower tariffs and bundles. Investigation on mobile operators' pricing shows that MTN's
Page 38
services are actually the most expensive in Ghana, though. This leads BMI to believe that MTN's success is
due to its leading position in the voice market, good marketing through ICT centres and a data festival every
September, and good quality network coverage. In May 2012, MTN successfully raised a syndicated loan
worth around US$276mn, according to the firm's managing director, Michael Ikpoki. The funds will mainly
be used to upgrade and expand its 3G network. In January 2010, MTN announced that it had appointed
Chinese equipment maker Huawei to deploy a UMTS900 platform on its network. The 900MHz platform
will be used for voice, video and data-based services and is based on Huawei's fourth generation 3900Series Node B, which the vendor claims combines advanced technology with high efficiency to boost
operators' productivity. The system supports a bandwidth of just 4.2MHz to provide UMTS service while
working seamlessly within the operators' existing GSM networks. It is understood that MTN will use the
upgrade to extend the reach of its high-speed data networks to more 'rural' communities.
Swedish vendor Ericsson has also been helping MTN Ghana develop UMTS900 services. In March 2010, it
was reported that Ericsson and MTN had successfully trialled UMTS 900MHz, which will be used to
complement MTN's existing UMTS 2100MHz infrastructure in urban areas. The enhanced 3G network is
designed to offer improved network capacity and better mobile broadband coverage. The agreement
between Ericsson and MTN Ghana makes Ericsson responsible for access, transport and transmission of
UMTS 900MHz. Full network roll-out was set to commence in Q210.
MTN's main competitors in Ghana's 3G market are Airtel (formerly Zain) and Tigo. When Zain launched as
the fifth mobile operator in Ghana in December 2008, it launched both GSM and HSDPA networks,
although HSDPA was initially only available in the capital. This is was the first 3G service in Ghana. In
November 2009, Zain pledged to invest more than US$400mn in Ghana to deliver a reliable, high-quality
3.5G mobile network. Zain Ghana also revealed that it had awarded a contract to a UK-based independent
provider of network and data management tools and services, Aircom International. It is understood that,
after Bharti Airtel acquired Zain's Africa operations, Aircom International helped design and plan Airtel
Ghana's migration from 2G to 3.5G.
In January 2012, Airtel introduced 3.5G HSPA+ based services, offering speeds of up to 21Mbps, in the
country. The operator also announced plans to deploy an additional 300 cell sites throughout the country by
April to enhance the accessibility of mobile broadband internet for its subscribers. Airtel aims to expand its
3G coverage by 50% with the roll-out of additional cell sites across Ghana.
In February 2011, Millicom Ghana, which operates as Tigo, revealed plans to roll out a 3G service to its
subscribers in March 2011. At the time of the announcement, it was understood that the operator had
Page 39
obtained license from the National Communication Authority and that all arrangements to run the service
had been completed. In May 2012, Tigo launched the nation's first unlimited mobile internet plans, which
charge users according to time not volume. Tigo has since changed its model to charge subscribers by
streaming and download volume, while allowing unlimited internet browsing. Although its bundles are only
valid for seven days, they are by far the least expensive and unlimited browsing is a unique offer among
Ghana's operators.
In January 2009, the operator signed a contract with Huawei for a 3G upgrade to its network. Although we
believed that Vodafone would use its 3G launch to rebrand Ghana Telecom's One Touch mobile network
as Vodafone, the operator rebranded its operation before 3G was ready. It may also look to follow a tactic
that has brought it 3G success in Kenya through Safaricom in that market, Vodafone has focused primarily
on the mobile broadband sector, based on the sale of prepaid USB modems, rather than the mobile 3G
market. Although Vodafone has the second largest share of the mobile voice market, it has struggled to
attract data customers. Local reports have suggested that new data caps on fixed broadband services,
followed by an increase in tariffs, have been viewed as unfair and driven subscribers away from the
operator.
In May 2013 Expresso announced the launch of its advanced 3G services over its connection to the ACE
submarine cable. Expresso is a part owner of the cable, and will reportedly be responsible for maintenance
of the cable in Nigeria and Ghana, and management of construction, operation and management of lading
stations in Senegal, Mauritania and Guinea Conakry. Given Expresso's tiny market share of voice and data
services, which were 0.6% and 1% in March 2013, it will be an uphill battle to attract enough subscribers to
make full use of its new connectivity. When considering volume, speed, price and length of
validity, Expresso's prices offer the overall best value.
Table: Comparison Of 3G Pricing, May 2013
Tariff (GHS)
Data Volume
Validity (days)
Speed
MTN
20
1GB
30
3.5G
Vodafone
15
750MB
30
3G
Airtel
15
750MB
30
3.75G
Tigo*
1.5GB
3G
Glo
10
1GB
3.5G
Expresso
15
1GB
30
3G
*= includes unlimited browsing. Source: BMI, operators
Page 40
Content
The commercial launch of 3G services by Ghana's
Data Market Shares

March 2013
four biggest mobile operators was an important

milestone in the development of mobile value added
services (VAS) in Ghana. For example, since
introducing commercial 3G services, the
operators are now offering a greater range of
downloadable content, including multimedia and
online social networking.
MTN
In July 2009, MTN launched its 'MTN Mobile
Money' service, which enables Ghanaians to perform
a range of basic financial transactions using their
mobile phones. The service is offered via a
Source: NCA
partnership between MTN and nine banks operating

in the country. The mobile money platform also allows non-MTN customers (even those who do not have a
mobile phone) to transfer or receive money by using the services of the Authorised MTN Mobile Money
Merchants. At the end of 2010, MTN reported having 1.8mn Mobile Money subscribers in Ghana; this was
up from 757,000 at the end of June 2010.
Other popular mobile VAS offered by MTN include the operator's ringtone and music download service,
interactive voice response (IVR) services and MTN BackUp. The ringtone and music download service also
allows users to send downloaded tracks to other users and is a very simple and basic mobile content service
that may appeal to users as they can use it just once and limit expense. The IVR services include a non-stop
radio and voice chat, and MTN BackUp allows users to safeguard contacts, calendars and other information.
All of these are steps towards promoting greater use of mobile content, and now that 3G is becoming
available, operators may become more adventurous in what is on offer.
In March 2011 MTN launched a pilot mobile life insurance service called mi-Life, in partnership with South
Africa-based Hollard Insurance Group. Jeremy Leach, head of micro-insurance at Hollard, claims the
insurance provider has an agreement with MTN at the group level to deploy insurance services across
MTN's operations on a country-by-country basis. According to Leach, the pilot mobile insurance service in
Ghana involves a simple life product, with a premium charged at between GHC1-5 (US$0.6-3.26). The
service is available to MTN Ghana Mobile Money customers who will be able to submit claims, queries and
Page 41
make premium payments using their handsets. The operator's distribution infrastructure will be used for the
roll-out of mi-Life in Ghana.
Airtel
Airtel offers numerous mobile data packages that allow subscribers to download videos and music tracks. In
March 2010, Airtel Ghana announced the launch of its Zap service, which enables subscribers and corporate
institutions to send and receive money nation-wide. Zap is a mobile banking and payment platform that
enables Airtel subscribers in 'Zap-enabled countries' to use their mobile phone to withdraw cash or pay for
goods and services, school fees electricity and water bills and bills of other utilities. In October 2011 Airtel
Ghana swapped its mobile services from Zain's Zap to Airtel Money. Airtel Money was first launched to
media practitioners in order to provide first-hand information regarding m-commerce service for various
transactions, then introduced to the public in December 2011. Airtel works with banks including Ecobank,
GT Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Unibank, United Bank of Africa, Zenith Bank, UT Bank, DStv
and Databank to provide customers with convenient ways of conducting mobile commerce, depositing and
withdrawals of cash, money transfers, banking services, paying bills and contributing to investments. There
are more than 500 Airtel Money dealers where customers can deposit and withdraw cash. The four major
services on Airtel Money are mobile top-up, money transfer, mobile banking and financial services for
micro-finance, micro insurance and B2B services. Customers can pay their utility bills and DStv
subscription fees, buy Airtel credit, pay for goods, services and loans through Airtel Money as well as make
corporate batch payments, and deposit or withdraw cash from a bank. The service is compatible with all
types of handsets and customers are not required to swap SIM cards to register for it.
Tigo
VAS offered by Tigo Ghana includes Google SMS and Facebook SMS. The latter enables subscribers to
send and receive status updates from their Facebook accounts on their mobile phone through SMS. Google
SMS allows customers to access information while on the move. In September 2011 Tigo Ghana launched
the Tigo Twitter SMS Service, enabling prepaid and postpaid subscribers to send and receive tweets using
text messages. The service will allow subscribers to use Twitter from any mobile device without an internet
connection. Tigo's other major communication VAS offerings are a back-up services similar to MTN's, a
messaging service called BUZZME, which allows users to send messages to pre-selected groups, and Tigo
Adanfo, the operator's dating service.
Tigo announced the launch of its mobile money platform, Tigo Cash, in October 2010. Similar to other
operators' mobile money services, Tigo Cash enables its customers to send, receive and top-up airtime, pay
bills, and make purchases using their mobile phones. The operator has partnered with Agriculture
Page 42
Development Bank (ADB), the United Bank for Africa (UBA), Ecobank and the Fidelity Bank. In
December 2010 Tigo and Vanguard Life launched an insurance service called Tigo Family Care, and in
December 2011 Tigo began paying Tigo Family Care insurance claims through its mobile money platform.
Policyholders receive their payouts directly on their phones and withdraw them from any Tigo Cash Agent
or Tigo Customer Service Centre nationwide. Tigo and underwriter Vanguard Life pay insurance claims
within 72 hours of receiving documentation. To qualify for the service, customers are required to spend a
minimum of GHS5 of Tigo airtime a month.
Vodafone
Vodafone has instituted the Vodafone Chat service for its mobile customers. It provides Vodafone users
with themed chat rooms where they can discuss various topics. The method of communication with these
central chat rooms is SMS. Vodafone also offers conference calling, SMS information services and voice
SMS. Vodafone's Credit Transfer is a personalised credit transfer, which allows all Vodafone prepaid
customers to transfer credit directly from their Vodafone accounts to another Vodafone prepaid customer.
Meanwhile, Vodafone Mobile Broadband is a USB modem-based service which gives customers fast
internet access via a PC or laptop. Vodafone's entry offer allow subscribers to pay GHS55 and then get a
USB modem preloaded with 3GB of mobile data that are valid for 30 days.
Vodafone also has an e-learning platform, where people can follow online courses on Microsoft, sales and
marketing, IT management and finance and accounting, among others. Participants can take their exams
online, too, and receive certificates upon completion of courses.
In Q312, Google launched a new service called Gmail SMS, which allows Gmail users to send and receive
emails through text messages. The service aims to address the problem of limited access to emails in Africa
and other emerging markets due to low internet penetration. BMI has a positive outlook for the service,
which we expect to thrive on the rapid growth of mobile subscriptions in target markets.
Glo
Despite launching only one year ago, Glo's already has a similar VAS selection to Ghana's other operators,
including music download and back up services. Its main VAS offering is called Magic Plus, which is set
up as a SIM tool kit menu. On the service, users can access content on news, sports, directory and Google
search information, entertainment, music, business services and their Glo account. The service does not
require a data connection, and, with no subscription fee and prices between GHS0.03 and GHS0.05 per
service, it is affordable and accessible as a one-off service.
Page 43
Glo does not yet have a mobile money platform, but BMI expects that, given the popularity of mobile
money among mobile subscribers and its profitability for operators, it will only be a matter of time before
Glo launches its own financial services.
Expresso
At the time of writing, Expresso was not advertising any value-added services over its mobile network. As
Ghana's smallest operator with only a 0.6% market share, it is not surprising that it is not competing to offer
data services. However, Expresso's recent connection to the African Coast to Europe submarine cable will
boost its mobile broadband power and open opportunities for future growth in its VAS portfolio. The
operator has begun offering competitively priced data plans, and, if it can attract a broader subscriber base,
BMI expects it will begin to develop a range of communication and multimedia VAS to compete with more
established operators and increase its market share.
Page 44
Mobile Operator Data

Table: Market Overview
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
17,991
19,199
20,420
21,166
21,660
23,370
24,884
25,618
26,462
Q-o-q growth (%)
3.2
6.7
6.4
3.7
2.3
7.9
6.5
2.9
3.3
Net additions ('000)
555
1,208
1,221
746
494
1,711
1,514
734
844
Market penetration (%)
72.5
77.4
82.3
85.3
84.8
91.5
97.4
100.3
101.3
Total number ('000)
Source: BMI, NCA
Table: MTN
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13
9,070
9,562
9,894
10,156
10,394
10,758
11,270
11,735
12,024
Market share (%)
50.4
49.8
48.5
48
48
46
45.3
45.8
45.4
No. of net additions ('000)
349
492
332
262
238
364
512
465
289
Market share of net additions

(%)
62.9
40.7
27.2
35.1
48.1
21.3
33.8
63.4
34.2
114
129
125
119
120
120
125
126
126
6.9
6.6
6.3
6.1
5.9
Subscriber Numbers ('000)

Total number ('000)
Subscriber Usage
Minutes of use/subscriber
Blended monthly ARPU (US$)
Source: BMI, MTN
Page 45
Table: Vodafone
Mar-11
Jun-11
Total number ('000)
2,978
3,426
3,890
4,276
4,524
4,819
5,027
5,259
5,609
Prepaid ('000)
2,957
3,402
3,875
4,258
4,506
4,800
5,007
5,238
na
21
24
16
17
18
19
20
21
na
Market share (%)
16.6
17.8
19.1
20.2
20.9
20.6
20.2
20.5
21.2
256
448
464
385
248
295
208
232
350

(%)
46.1
37.1
38
51.7
50.3
17.2
13.7
31.6
41.5
Postpaid ('000)
na = not available. Source: BMI, operators
Table: Tigo
Mar-11
Jun-11
4,012
4,102
3,998
3,922
3,642
3,553
3,758
3,698
3,676
22.3
21.4
19.6
18.5
16.8
15.2
15.1
14.4
13.9
13
90
-104
-77
-280
-89
205
-60
-22

(%)
2.3
7.5
-8.5
-10.3
-56.6
-5.2
13.5
-8.2
-2.6
Mar-11
Jun-11
1,701
1,889
2,433
2,626
2,897
3,022
3041
3,192
3,384
Market share (%)
9.5
9.8
11.9
12.4
13.4
12.9
12.2
12.5
12.8
-54
188
545
193
271
125
19
151
192

(%)
-9.6
15.6
44.6
25.8
54.9
7.3
1.3
20.6
22.7
Total number ('000)

Market share (%)
Source: BMI, NCA, Tigo
Table: Airtel
Total number ('000)
Source: BMI, NCA
Page 46
Table: Glo
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Total number ('000)
991
1,610
1,568
1,607
Market share (%)
4.2
6.5
6.1
6.1
991
619
-42
39
Market share of net additions (%)
57.9
40.9
-5.7
4.6
Source: BMI, NCA
Table: Expresso
Mar-11
Jun-11
Total number ('000)
230
220
204
187
203
220
178
166
162
Market share (%)
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.6
-10
-10
-16
-17
16
-10
-49
-12
-4

(%)
-1.8
-0.8
-1.3
-2.3
3.3
-0.8
-3.3
-1.6
-0.5
Source: BMI, NCA
Page 47
Mobile Content
Financial results published by some of Africa's biggest mobile network operators show a sharp increase in
the contribution of non-voice revenues to total service revenues during 2012. We attribute this to two main
factors - the decline in voice revenue growth due to price competition in most markets and the aggressive
expansion of mobile content offerings during the last two years. This development is in line with BMI's
view of the outperformance of operators that pursue a revenue growth strategy through advanced valueadded services (VAS) as a means of offsetting the inevitable stagnation of revenues from traditional
telecoms services.
Non-Voice Revenue Contribution Head Into Double Digits

Safaricom has one of the most developed VAS
portfolios in Africa, as evidenced by the contribution
of non-voice revenues to total revenues. According
to the operator, non-voice revenues grew by 28% y-
Heading North
Airtel Africa Non-Voice Revenues As % Of
Total Mobile Revenues
o-y during the six months ended September 2012 to

KES18.68bn (US$219mn). This was equivalent to
an impressive 32% of total revenues for the period,
up from just 18% three years earlier.
MTN Group reported a 58.5% y-o-y increase in

data and non-voice revenues to ZAR14.574bn (US
$1.61bn) in 2012. This was equivalent to 10.8% of
consolidated revenue for the period. Although this
figure includes MTN's operations outside SubSaharan Africa, the operator highlighted key African
markets, notably South Africa and Nigeria, which
Source: BMI, Airtel
are experiencing strong uptake of mobile data, and

Ghana and Uganda, where its m-commerce service
MTN Money is dominant, as the main drivers of non-voice revenue growth within the group.
Airtel Africa's non-voice revenues for Q412 accounted for 15.1% of total revenues for that quarter. Over
the 12 months to December 2012, the average proportion of non-voice revenues was 12.9%. For its part,
South Africa's Vodacom Group reported non-voice service revenues of almost 29% in Q412, with the fullyear average coming in at more than 20%.
Page 48
The region's other major players, including Etisalat, Orange Africa and Tigo, also reported strong growth
in non-voice service revenues on the back of rapid expansion of their VAS portfolios. In previous updates to
our regional mobile content analysis, we argued that network operators with strong VAS portfolios are
likely to outperform their rivals in terms of financial indicators by offsetting the decline in traditional voice
revenues with strong growth in VAS.
Page 49
Diversity Of Services
The range of mobile content on offer across Africa has widened significantly during the past two years,
from basic SMS and MMS services to advanced data-centric offerings and telecoms crossovers. Although
the majority of VAS services are offered over 2G networks, which remains the dominant mobile technology
in the region, BMI notes that high-speed mobile data networks based on 3G and, more recently, 4G LTE
networks are playing an increasingly important role in boosting advanced mobile content offerings. This
development is complemented by the increasing availability of affordable smartphones and other dataenabled devices. Huawei, Samsung, Nokia and BlackBerry are among leading global device
manufacturers that are targeting the region with low-cost smartphones.
Basic Services Still In Demand

Kenya SMS (mn) (LHS) And MMS ('000) (RHS) Sent, Q311-Q312
Source: BMI, CCK
Market data published by the Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) and Tanzania
Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) show that demand for basic SMS and MMS messages
remains strong despite the uptake of new messaging services such as WhatsApp and BlackBerry's BBM.
We believe this trend is replicated across the region.
There are at least three reasons for this. First is the universal access to SMS and MMS services using widely
available 2G networks and feature phones, unlike the exclusive access to alternative services via 3G
Page 50
networks and expensive mobile devices. The second reason is the drastic reduction in SMS and MMS rates
over the past two years on the back of competition and, in some cases, regulatory policies. In some markets,
free SMS offers are bundled with prepaid top-ups while some others offer free SMS services at off-peak
time as part of their customer retention strategies. Finally, there is a growing trend towards the use of SMSs
by businesses and government agencies for effective communication. For example, Nigeria's Ministry of
Agriculture has adopted the use of SMSs for the distribution of fertilisers to improve efficiency. Similarly,
the Ethiopian Shipping & Logistics Services Enterprise (ESLSE), installed new software, called CTTS,
which automatically sends SMS notifications to customers when goods arrive at the dry port.
The threat to SMS and MMS services from alternative messaging services that offer better users experience
cannot be underestimated. However, some operators in the region have recognised this and are moving
quickly with partnerships that will enable them to benefit from the new services. In April 2013, Airtel
signed a cross-promotion agreement with WhatsApp Inc, developers of the WhatsApp messaging
application, for the exclusive right to launch WhatsApp packages in Nigeria. According to the partnership,
Airtel customers get unlimited access the WhatsApp bundle for NGN100 (US$0.62) per month or by
activating a minimum data bundle of at least 200MB. The package is available to all prepaid subscribers
and usage does not deduct from the user's data bundle or airtime balance. BMI notes the WhatsApp app is
one of the fastest growing social networking platforms in Nigeria, where it serves as an alternative to the
equally popular BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) for those who are not able to afford the latter. The cost of
the Airtel-WhatsApp bundle is significantly less than BBM services, which cost an average of NGN1,500
per month.
Mobile Crossovers Still In The Mix

We have covered the growth of m-commerce services extensively in previous updates to our regional
mobile content analysis. The service has now become an integral part of telecoms and financial services in
many markets across the region. Kenya still has the biggest and most developed m-commerce market, with
Safaricom aggressively expanding the functionalities and product offerings of its popular M-PESA mcommerce platform. The operator's M-PESA revenues for the six months to September 2012 grew by
32.3% y-o-y to reach KES10.43bn. The total value of m-commerce transactions in Kenya reached
KES1.4trn (US$16.2bn) in the financial year ended June 2012, up 52.3% y-o-y on the KES919mn recorded
over the same period in 2011.
Other countries that have seen rapid growth of m-commerce services include Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Uganda
and Ghana. Tanzania had TZS157.8bn (US$95mn) stored in mobile accounts as of November 2012,
according to the World Bank, while the value of transactions increased from TZS1.4mn in 2007 to a
Page 51
remarkable TZS1.7trn in 2012. In Uganda the total value of m-commerce transactions grew by 211% in
2012 to reach UGX11.7trn (US$7bn). Meanwhile, frontier markets are also taking steps to develop mcommerce services, a development we expect to benefit operators. The National Bank of Ethiopia on
January 1 2013 issued a long-awaited directive that will enable banks and micro-finance institutions (MFI)
in the country to offer transaction-based mobile and agent banking services. The draft directive states that
m-commerce users must have e a mobile account to carry out transactions while the maximum balance in a
mobile account is limited to ETB25,000 (US$1,357), with daily mobile banking transactions not to exceed
ETB6,000.
M-health is another mobile crossover service expected to dominate the landscape in the future. BMI notes
that the service is evolving rapidly, with a wider range of application. In Tanzania, Tigo offers a service that
allows Tanzanians to verify the status of their kidneys through simple text message questions and answers.
A secondary benefit is the collection of data on trends in kidney disease that will allow medical
professionals to track the scale of kidney disease. In December 2012, UK-based multinational
pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) formed a partnership with Vodafone to harness
innovative mobile technology to help vaccinate more children against common infectious diseases in
Mozambique.
M2M Debuts In Africa

In addition to consumer-centric mobile content, operators in the region are beginning to develop non-voice
solutions for businesses as part of their revenue diversification strategy. One of these is the machine-tomachine (M2M) solution, with which Vodacom appears to have taken the lead in the region. In November
2012, Vodacom launched its M2M solution for reliable, secure and cost-effective ATM and point-of-sale
(POS) connectivity and back-up applications in Nigeria. The solutions are dual-SIM enabled and include
ATMLink, POSLink and 3G Back-Up, which will utilise GSM data networks to connect retailers' POS to
the Nigerian Interbank Settle Systems (NIBSS) network and ATMs to banks' central servers. Vodacom also
launched a Global Data Services Platform (GDSP) to help businesses deploy and manage large, wireless
M2M projects in South Africa. The GDSP platform will provide customers with managed connectivity for
M2M smart device deployments, allowing companies to centrally manage and control the process of rolling
out M2M devices across many countries.
With M2M services expected to grow rapidly globally over the next few years, partly due to its wide range
of applications, we believe Vodacom is well placed to take advantage of the emerging opportunities in
Africa. We also expect the operator to leverage the expertise and experience of its parent
company Vodafone Group, which has invested significantly in the development of M2M
Page 52
solutions. BMI notes that Vodacom's rivals in Africa are still predominantly focused on the consumer
segment. However, margins are tightening in that segment due to intense price competition, low spending
power of most new subscribers and high operating costs. However, the corporate segment offers significant
revenue growth opportunities as businesses adopt solutions to increase productivity and reduce waste.
Fixed Line
There were 287,909 fixed-line connections in Ghana at the end of March 2013, according to market data
published by the National Communications Authority (NCA). This was up 1.0% q-o-q from 284,981 at the
end of 2012, slowing down after 3.7% growth in Q412. When considered on a monthly basis (the NCA
publishes monthly subscriber figures) the data show the fixed-line market in Ghana has fluctuated over the
last year, like it has done for most of 2010 and 2011. Since March 2012, total fixed-line subscriptions
peaked at 288,567 in February 2013 and hit a low of 270,761 in August 2012.
BMI notes the changes in subscriber numbers largely occur on the network of fixed-line incumbent
Vodafone Ghana, but alternative operator Airtel Ghana experienced greater fluctuations by percentage
due to its smaller base. There is no explanation from the regulator or from operators as to why there was
such significant fluctuation in the number of fixed lines, particularly after we commented that there
appeared to be stagnation in the market towards the latter part of 2009. However, BMI suspects the
fluctuations in 2010 and 2011 were related to the increase in price competition of the mobile segment in
Q310 and the response of fixed-line operators with more competitive pricing of fixed-line services.
Excluding the monthly fluctuations, Vodafone saw its fixed-line subscriber base expand in Q113, while
Airtel's subscriber base shrunk during that period. With net additions of 3,169 in Q113 and 12,177 in Q412,
Vodafone managed to recoup subscription losses from earlier in 2012 and recorded an overall growth of
0.48%, equivalent to 1,316 subscribers, for the year ending in March 2013. Although Airtel posted strong
growth in Q212, most of those subscriptions were lost again in Q312 and Q113, leaving the second operator
with a y-o-y net gain of 730 subscribers. This gave Vodafone a market share of 96.5% in March 2013,
virtually unchanged from the previous quarter and the same period in 2012.
It is difficult to forecast the future growth trajectory of Ghana's fixed-line market, considering the
investment in network development by operators on the one hand and the sustained pressure from the
mobile segment on the other. However, we expect Vodafone and Airtel will focus more on solutions for
corporate users, as the likelihood of fixed connections competing effectively with mobile connections in the
consumer segment becomes slimmer. Airtel already has a fixed-line offer for businesses, with features such
as a connection of multiple extensions to the company's PABX system and full functionality within a 1km
Page 53
radius from the office location. For its part, we expect Vodafone Ghana to take advantage of its extensive
network infrastructure to provide advanced data services, bundled with fixed-line connections, to businesses
and higher value consumers across the country.
Table: Ghana Fixed-Line Market
Vodafone
Airtel
Total Fixed
Subscribers
Q-o-Q Growth (%)
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
270,720
270,216
284,546
274,607
276,514
266,009
262,484
274,661
277,830
10,101
10,495
9,760
10,114
9,349
10,559
10,320
10,320
10,079
280,821
280,711
294,306
284,721
285,863
276,568
274,804
284,981
287,909
1.10%
0.00%
4.80%
-3.30%
0.40%
-3.30%
-0.60%
3.70%
1.00%
Source: BMI, NCA
Vodafone continues to invest in the development of its national wireline infrastructure. The operator has
itself been the subject of a restructuring programme that began with the acquisition of Ghana Telecom by
Vodafone. In November 2012, Vodafone's CEO, Kyle Whitehall, said the company had invested more than
GHS50mn to improve its fixed-line infrastructure since 2009. The investment has focused on replacing
legacy copper lines with new infrastructure, including the installation of around 150 multi-service access
nodes (MSANs) to boost voice and data services.
Meanwhile, in January 2011 VIP Communications Inc, a leading provider of international calling services
and solutions, launched a new service Direct Line Ghana, in partnership with Vodafone Ghana. The
international calling service enables VIP customers in the US to talk to family and friends in Ghana at rates
up to 60% less than existing calling services. The service allows Ghanaians in the US to receive calls from
Ghana for US$0.1 a minute on a Vodafone Ghana phone number that connects directly to their US mobile
or landline phone. Meanwhile, calling the direct line number is free from any Vodafone mobile or landline
phone in Ghana and charged at local domestic rates from other Ghanaian operators. The service is available
to new and existing VIP customers in the US. Ghana has a large migrant population in the US and BMI
expects VIP's local partner Vodafone, to have significant interest in the service. BMI expects Vodafone to
seek similar partnerships to create value for its fixed services amid growing mobile substitution.
In May 2011 Vodafone Ghana said it fully integrated its fixed-line network and revised its billing system to
ensure that numbers ported from other networks to Vodafone would be recognised by its fixed-line network
Page 54
as Vodafone numbers and be billed as such. The integration allows Vodafone fixed services customers to
make and receive calls from ported and non-ported mobile numbers without any disruption.
Broadband
The majority of Ghana's fixed broadband
connections are currently provided by Vodafone
Ghana. Vodafone Ghana's main broadband service
consists of an ADSL service that is provided over its
Vodafone Fixed Broadband

Subscribers ('000)
2011-2012
fixed-line network. The ADSL-based service, which

was launched in August 2004, is available in every
regional capital and some district capitals. The
operator's parent company Vodafone Group
reported a fixed subscriber base of 31,000 at the end
of December 2012. This was an increase of 7% q-oq from 29,000 of September but a flat growth
compared with the same period in 2011. BMI notes
that Vodafone's fixed broadband service has largely
underperformed, despite the strong demand for data
services in the country. The operator's broadband
subscriber base fluctuated between 24,000 and a
Source: BMI, Vodafone
peak of 36,000 (attained in Q112) over the two years

to December 2012. This apparent lack of positive
growth momentum may be related to limited fixed network coverage and competition from various wireless
access technologies, including 3G/HSPA+ and WiMAX.
Another factor that may be limiting growth in the fixed broadband sector is the lack of competition in the
market. Fixed broadband users in Ghana have often accused the incumbent of providing unsatisfactory
services at uncompetitive prices. In November 2012, the operator placed a 15GB data cap on a monthly
package of GHS65. However, this did not go down well customers, many of whom complained of
experiencing significantly slower transmission speeds than what was promised by the operator. This
situation highlights the need for competition in the fixed broadband sector, perhaps through local loop
unbundling.
BMI notes that the incumbent operator is facing increasing competition in the broadband market from
wireless broadband services providers. Since the beginning of 2012, Ghana's mobile operators have
Page 55
embarked on projects with heavy emphasis on data services. We see this as part of their strategy to take
advantage of the huge opportunities in the country's underserved data market considering the fierce
competition in the voice segment.
In January 2012, Airtel Ghana introduced 3.5G/HSPA+ services, offering speeds of up to 21Mbps, in the
country. The operator also announced plans to deploy an additional 300 cell sites throughout the country by
April 2012 to raise its 3G coverage by 50%. In March 2012, Vodafone started running a campaign to
promote mobile internet use under the slogan 'Limitless Possibilities'. In May 2012, Tigo launched Ghana's
first unlimited mobile internet plans, which charge users according to time not volume. Mobile phone users
are charged rates ranging from GHS0.99 (US$0.53) per day to GHS22.99 (US$12.3) for an entire month,
while laptop and tablet users are charged GHS1.99 (US$1.06) per day to GHS39.99 (US$21.41) for a
month.
For its part, new entrant Globacom claims to have installed the fastest and widest mobile data network in
Ghana, with 1,400 3G base stations, four ultramodern switches and 18 base switching centres all connected
to its Glo-1 submarine cable system by a 3,100km terrestrial fibre-optic cable. Meanwhile, in March 2013
mobile market leader MTN announced plans to invest US$105mn in a national fibre-optic cable and a
metro fibre in Kumasi, and to deploy more 3G and 2G base stations.
In May 2013, Expresso's connection to the African Coast to Europe (ACE) went live and it announced that
it would begin offering high-speed broadband services. The ACE cable is 17,000km long and runs from
France to South Africa, with 23 landing stations, including two terrestrial links to Niger and Mali. BMI
expects that these new connections to international submarine cables will encourage faster uptake of mobile
broadband services as prices come down and connection speeds increase. Wireless broadband speeds
offered by mobile operators will, however, be limited as the NCA has decided not to issue LTE licences
anytime in the near future. In July 2012 it was revealed that the NCA intends to free up broadband spectrum
by 2015, which could triple the country's mobile broadband capacity. The spectrum would become available
after Ghana switches from analogue to digital television and could help create 930,000 jobs and 11mn
mobile broadband connections in Ghana by 2020. The NCA's director of regulatory administration has
stated that digital migration is due to be completed by 2014, a year in advance of the global deadline. In
February 2013, the NCA released specifications on set-top boxes (STBs) for digital terrestrial television
(DTT). Ghana will use the DVB-T2 standard for its digital TV services, freeing up spectrum in the
174-230MHz (VHF) and 470-862MHz (UHF) bands. The latter band is particularly of interest to telecoms
operators, with 800MHz used to reach rural areas with next generation LTE infrastructure. BMI has
previously highlighted the need for operators to reach rural areas to continue growing in
Page 56
Ghana. BMI believes the digital switchover will have a positive effect on the growth of the AV sector in
Ghana. Setting standards will aid the smooth transition to DTT and free up spectrum quicker for telecoms
operators. The switchover will further push Ghana towards next generation networks and a more advanced
ICT industry.
BMI expects the efforts of the mobile operators and regulators to be complemented by the increasing
availability of international bandwidth from submarine cable systems for more reliable and cost effective
connectivity. Before the ACE submarine cable connection was switched on in May 2013, the Ghanaian
government estimates the country's bandwidth capacity at 7,160GBps or 7.16TBps. Main One cable
company and Globacom's Glo-1 are supplying 1,280GBps and 640GBps respectively, while the West
African Cable System (WACS), which landed in Accra in July 2011, is set to supply extra bandwidth
capacity of 5,120GBps after it became operational in May 2012. The ACE cable's reported capacity of
5120GBps brings the total significantly higher to 12.12Tbps. The four new submarine cables supply
considerably more capacity than the country had with SAT-3, which supplies around
120Gbps. Nevertheless, even as the amount of international bandwidth increases, internet services in Ghana
will continue to face the challenge of 'backhaul' and ensuring that Ghana's various regions, regional capitals
and districts have access to the increased bandwidth. The expansion of Ghana's national broadband
infrastructure could be done by the use of microwave, satellite or terrestrial fibre. However, currently Ghana
Telecom's National Communications Backbone Company (NCBC) has a monopoly over the provision of
national bandwidth by means of its terrestrial fibre infrastructure. Some have called for more infrastructure
licences to be granted for competing national infrastructures to be built; this would help to undermine the
monopoly of NCBC and the potentially harmful effects of having limited competition. Meanwhile, there is
considerable scope for investing in the development of 'last mile' bandwidth, either by microwave wireless,
satellite or telephone cables, to extend the availability of bandwidth to offices and homes
Telecoms service providers are also rolling out services that we believe will have a considerable impact on
internet penetration in Ghana. In June 2011 Vodafone Ghana rolled out Wi-Fi in three hotels in Accra.
Customers at the three hotels can enjoy speeds of 54 to 100Mbps. The operator plans to increase the number
of Wi-Fi locations to create what it claims will be Ghana's largest, fastest and most affordable Wi-Fi
network. Vodafone plans to locate hotspots in hotels, hospitals, restaurants and other locations of corporate,
community and social activities. The service requires a prepaid voucher priced at GHS1.80 per hour.
In August 2011 Vodafone Ghana introduced a Mi-Fi device allowing up to five Wi-Fi devices to share a
mobile broadband connection. The device works within a 100-meter radius, creating a local Wi-Fi cloud.
The device sells for GHS186 and comes with a complimentary data allowance. In May 2011, Vodafone
Page 57
announced the launch of 'Vodafone Webbox', an intelligent keyboard that allows users to access the internet
through TVs in their homes, offices and schools. The device had been developed in conjunction with
China's ZTE, and is specifically designed for Vodafone consumers in emerging markets to bridge the
digital divide. It costs GHC169 (US$110) and supports core services such as Opera Mini 5.1 internet access,
SMS and email messaging, internet search and media service.
In February 2013, Airtel said it plans to deploy a large-scale Wi-Fi network in the 17 African countries that
it is operating in. According to GigaOM citing sources familiar to the deal, Airtel Africa has
engaged Ruckus Wireless and Alcatel-Lucent to help deploy 'tens of thousands of carrier-grade access
points in high-traffic areas throughout its pan-continental network'. Ruckus Wireless will reportedly supply
its indoor and outdoor high-capacity access points while Alcatel-Lucent, which has been contracted
by Bharti Airtel to build a new IP network backbone in Africa, will provide its service and aggregation
router, and act as the system integrator for the project. Airtel Africa has reportedly started deployment in
Niger and will expand to the remaining 16 countries, including Ghana, depending on the performance and
response.
Ghana's National Broadband Strategy, developed by the Ghana ISP Association, seeks to achieve 50%
broadband penetration and an 80% reduction in broadband service costs by 2015. Although these could be
viewed as optimistic targets, the 50% broadband penetration rate includes mobile broadband connections.
WiMAX
On January 25 2011 the NCA announced the successful conclusion of its selection process for the award of
Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) licences in the 2,500-2,690MHz band. The licensee(s) and end-users
will be allowed to employ any suitable technology of their choice to provide fixed or mobile broadband
services throughout Ghana for an initial period of 10 years.
The NCA employed a multi-stage selection process (a combination of 'beauty contest' and auction) to select
the BWA licensees among five applicants. At the end of the process GoldKey Properties Limited won a
paired slot of 2x15MHz at the final Auction Price of US$5.5mn. Meanwhile, Broadband Home (BBH),
which was already operating in the band, exercised the option to remain in the band with an unpaired
30MHz slot for the final auction price according to the terms and conditions of the BWA licences on offer.
This was followed by another round of BWA licence award to Surfline Limited and GoldKey Properties
Limited in the 2,500-2,690 MHz band in February 2013. Both firms were awarded a licence each for paired
Page 58
frequency configuration. Meanwhile, G-Kwiknet Limited was awarded a licence for unpaired
configuration. The licences are valid for 10 years and cost US$6mn each.
The BWA licences have a number of conditions. In particular, the successful operators have to achieve 60%
penetration in each of several zones, as well as 100% penetration of district capitals. The zones are
groupings of district areas from the highly attractive (Accra Metropolitan) to the much less attractive (Bole
in the Northern region). The operator also has to satisfy a set of quality of service metrics that will be
outlined in the licence. Five years into the term of the licence period, licensees that have satisfied all the
conditions will be able to pay a one-off fee of US$1mn for the right to offer voice services. However, the
licence does not entitle the operator to an international gateway licence and that will have to be purchased
separately.
The frequency bands in BWA licences are well suited for WiMAX services which we expect to feature
prominently as Ghana's broadband internet market steadily expands. WiMAX technology can be used to
provide either mobile wireless or fixed wireless services.
In July 2010, Greece's Intracom Telecom, which is a 51%-owned subsidiary of Russia's Sitronics Group,
announced that had secured a US$1.2mn deal to deploy a mobile WiMAX network for DiscoveryTel
Ghana (DTG). Initial rollout was expected to cover greater Accra and some other major cities. Ghana
Business News subsequently quoted DTG's business development manager, Nana Duffuor, who said that
the company was not deploying WiMAX technology, but rather a fourth-generation wireless broadband
network. Nevertheless, Duffour confirmed that a deal has been signed by the two companies. It is
understood that Intracom Telecom will build a turnkey mobile WiMAX network based on its OmniMAX
branded access solution, and its high capacity, next generation native-Ethernet microwave backhaul
platform, OmniBAS. OmniMAX operates in the 2.5GHz-2.7GHz and 3.4GHz-3.8GHz frequency bands and
is compliant with IEEE 802.16e-2005 and WiMAX Forum Wave-II Certification requirements. Intracom is
expected to complete the whole project by the end of 2010. Once operational, the new network will enable
DTG to provide high speed broadband wireless access to residential and business users in greater Accra
(covering approximately 2mn people) and other major cities. The contract also includes an extension option
to provide equipment for mobile WiMAX coverage to other major cities across the country. BMI believes
that the fact that DTG's network will be a mobile WiMAX network rather than a fixed-wireless platform,
will, in practice, make little difference to users. The impact of the new service should ultimately be to
encourage increased broadband service uptake.
Page 59
Table: Wireline Developments Table
Date
Details
May-13
Expresso switched on its connection to the African Coast to Europe (ACE) submarine cable in Accra,
adding another 5.12Tbps of broadband capacity to the Ghanaian market.
Apr-11
The 9,900km Glo 1 submarine fibre-optic cable finally goes live in Ghana's capital Accra.
Jul-10
Intracom Telecom, a 51%-owned unit of Sistema of Russia's Sitronics group, announces a US$1.2mn
contract with DiscoveryTel Ghana (DTG), for the rollout of the country's first mobile WiMAX network.
According to the terms of the agreement, Intracom Telecom will build a turnkey mobile WiMAX network
based on its OmniMAX branded access solution, and its high-capacity, next generation native-Ethernet
microwave backhaul platform, OmniBAS.
May-10
Main One Cable Company announces that it has completed the deployment of the first phase of its Main
One cable system, a cross-continental 1.92Tbps capacity submarine fibre-optic network.
Jan-10
Vodafone Ghana announces it had substantially improved its new consumer broadband tariffs. The new
usage allowance for the basic tariff is now 10GB a month compared to the previous allowance of 5GB.
Oct-09
Nigeria's Globacom announces that it landed a high-speed fibre-optic cable in Ghana. The new 9,800km
'Glo' submarine cable runs from the Ghanaian capital Accra to Lagos in Nigeria. The new cable is
expected to increase fibre-optic capacity in the country from its current 120Gbps to 640Gbps (and
ultimately 2.5Tbps). France's Alcatel-Lucent is understood to have been contracted for the cable rollout.
Sep-09
According to The Ghanaian Journal, internet service providers (ISPs) in Ghana have requested that the
government reduce or completely eliminate taxes on broadband service costs to make the services
affordable, thereby boosting uptake in the country. The ISPs added this would help the country achieve
50% broadband penetration by 2015 and also increase broadband bandwidth from 256kbps to 2Mbps.
The ISPs have also suggested that the Ghanaian telecoms regulator, the National Communications
Authority (NCA), take measures to reduce the period for buying a new telecoms licence.
Jul-09
The government of Ghana has signed a two-year contract worth US$150mn with Huawei Technologies, a
Chinese telecoms equipment vendor. According to the terms of the contract, Huawei will provide modern
broadband infrastructure and facilities to ensure the availability of broadband internet services across the
nation within the next 24 months. The minister of communications, Haruna Iddrisu, said the government
aims to project the country as a viable destination for business process outsourcing companies, but BMI
believes this will take a considerable amount of work and could still be a long way off.
May-09
The chairman of UK-based mobile group and owner of 70% of fixed-line incumbent Vodafone has stated
that the operator plans to invest up to US$700mn on the development of telecoms infrastructure in
Ghana. The investment plans were disclosed during a meeting in London, between top executives from
Vodafone and the Ghanaian government delegation headed by President John Evans Atta Mills.
Jul-08
Vodafone, the UK-based telecoms operator, secures a 70% stake in Ghana Telecommunications
Company from the government of Ghana at a cost of US$900mn. The deal, which is on a debt-free and
cash-free basis, will enable Vodafone to gain control of the third-largest mobile operator in the country.
Source: BMI
Page 60
Industry Trends And Developments
In May 2013, Ghana-based RLG Communications announced its commitment to list on the Ghana Stock
Exchange (GSE), despite a suspension faced earlier. The firm halted plans to list 45% of its business on
the local bourse in 2012 in order to take more time to establish the RLG brand. The firm is also planning
to set up an office in Dubai in a bid to coordinate its global expansion into Asia, the Middle East and the
Americas.
In May 2013, the National Communication Authority (NCA) published results on mobile data market
shares for the first quarter of 2013. The data showed that 34.5% of mobile subscribers also use data
services, and MTN has the lion's share of the market with 65%. The rest of the data market is split
between Tigo, with a 14% share, Airtel with 10%, Vodafone with 7%, Glo with 3% and finally
Expresso with a 1% share.
In May 2013, the NCA imposed fines totalling GHS900,000 (US$450,940) on five mobile operators for
failing to meet quality of service (QoS) targets in Q113. The regulator imposed a GHS300,000 (US
$150,313) fine each on MTN and Glo, while fines of GHS100,000 (US$50,104.5) each were imposed on
Expresso, Airtel and Tigo.
Expresso announced plans to launch high-speed broadband services as its link to the African Coast to
Europe (ACE) submarine cable went live in May 2013. Expresso Telecom is a partial owner of the
17,000km-long cable, and will be solely responsible for maintenance of the cable in Ghana and Nigeria
and will manage the construction, operation and maintenance of cable landing stations in Mauritania,
Senegal and Guinea Conakry.
In March 2013, the NCA announced it will not issue LTE concessions soon, reports TeleGeography.
Acting deputy director general at the regulator, Albert Enninful, claims the local operators' main aim
should be to develop 3G services before implementing LTE.
In March 2013, MTN Ghana announced plans to invest around US$105mn upgrading and expanding its
network this year, reports TeleGeography. The subsidiary is understood to be part of the investment that
has been reserved for a national fibre-optic cable and also for a metro fibre cable in Kumasi, Ghana to
enhance data services. MTN Ghana will also deploy 3G base stations and roll out 200 2G sites.
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Table: Mobile Market Trends And Developments
Date
Details
Mar-13
Local media reported that the country's telecoms operators were suing the government over what they
claim is double taxation of the Communications Service Tax (CST). According to the network operators, the
government imposes a 6% direct tax on phone calls, and an additional 6% tax is levied on interconnection
fees. The operators have reportedly refused to pay the additional tax liabilities. A tax policy advisor to the
government, Dr Larbi Siaw, said the issue would be resolved amicably, but after the operators paid the
arrears accrued in 2012.
Feb-13
Surfline Limited and GoldKey Properties Limited won broadband wireless access (BWA) licences in the
2,500-2,690 MHz band from Ghana's National Communications Authority (NCA). Both firms were awarded
a licence each for paired frequency configuration. Meanwhile, G-Kwiknet Limited won a licence for
unpaired configuration. The licences are valid for 10 years and cost US$6mn each.
Feb-13
The NCA released specifications on set-top boxes (STBs) for digital terrestrial television (DTT), in
preparation for the country's move from analogue TV to DTT in December 2014. Ghana will use the DVB-T2
standard for its digital TV services, freeing up spectrum in the 174-230MHz (VHF) and 470-862MHz (UHF)
bands. In establishing a clear framework for minimum requirements, the NCA will boost the availability of
STBs in Ghana and build a strong market for the devices.
Dec-12
Ghanaian electronics manufacturer RLG Communications revealed plans to invest US$100mn in setting up
a factory by 2014. Construction work on the factory is scheduled to start in January 2013. The facility
would also develop software for mobile phones and computers, while also taking orders from other
technology firms. The firm also plans to set up an assembly plant in Nigeria in 2013.
Dec-12
MTN Business, a division of South Africa-based MTN Group, announced the launch of a pilot project for its
cloud computing service in six countries in Africa, including Ghana. MTN is launching the Cloud Service
Brokerage (CBS) model which centralises access to various services in the cloud ecosystem with a broker
acting as a single point of contact for customers by aggregating, integrating and implementing cloud
services from multiple providers. The MTN cloud computing service will target small and medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs) in the region.
Nov-11
Fines worth US$750,000 have been imposed by the National Communications Authority (NCA) on MTN,
Vodafone, Airtel, Expresso and Tigo for what it deemed to be poor services to their clients in Ghana.
According to a report issued by the NCA, Airtel will suffer the largest fine of US$218,886 for call channel
traffic congestion, while MTN and Expresso will each pay US$187,617. The deputy director in charge of
consumer and corporate affairs at the NCA, Mawuko Zormelo, revealed that the parameters considered for
imposing the penalties were call dropping and call congestion.
Jun-11
American Tower Corporation Ghana and Eaton Towers Ghana reportedly invested US$123.49mn and US
$4.25mn in projects during Q211. The firms undertook projects with Ghanaian mobile operators MTN
and Vodafone.
Jan-11
The International Finance Corporation (IFC), part of the World Bank Group, announced a US$25mn
investment in Helios Towers Africa. The cash injection will help support HTA's plan to build and maintain
mobile phone towers in Ghana and other Sub-Saharan countries.
Source: BMI
Page 62
Table: Value-Added Services Developments
Date
Details
May-12
Vodafone introduced vodafonelive.com.gh, a music portal that allows users to purchase and download music
onto their mobile phones.
Oct-11
Airtel Ghana revealed it is swapping its mobile services from Zain's Zap to Airtel Money. The mobile wallet
will permit its customers to send and receive funds from their bank accounts, monitor their accounts using
their handsets, pay utility bills, buy goods and services and transfer airtime across networks.
Sep-11
Tigo Ghana has launched the Tigo Twitter SMS Service, enabling prepaid and postpaid subscribers to send
and receive tweets using text messages.
Mar-11
MTN Ghana launched a pilot mobile life insurance service called mi-Life, in partnership with South Africabased Hollard Insurance Group.
Dec-10
MTN reports it has 1.8mn Ghanaian customers of its Mobile Money service.
Oct-10
Tigo launches its e-money service Tigo Cash, which helps with airtime top-ups and also banking services
such as paying bills.
Mar-10
Airtel Communications Ghana launches its mobile commerce service Zap in Ghana. The new service will
enable Ghanaians to pay for goods and services using their mobile phones and conduct banking services
regardless of the type of handset they use.
Aug-09
According to Ghana Business News, Nigerian telecoms operator Globacom's Ghanaian mobile unit Glo
Mobile Ghana has announced it started the construction of laying down an underground cable system for its
broadband internet services. The operator added it will link its cable network with the Glo-1 submarine cable
that will connect Europe and Accra to Nigeria.
Jul-09
MTN introduces MTN Money, a mobile money service that it has successfully launched in several other
African markets. Mobile banking and payment systems are yet to make a big splash in Ghana, so there is the
distinct potential for MTN to find significant success if its marketing strategies work effectively. One of the
interesting things about MTN's service is that you not need a bank account and you also do not need a
mobile phone to make use of the service. Anyone can create an account through an authorised MTN Mobile
Money vendor and make deposits and transfers or receive money from another account holder.
Jul-09
Ireland-based Tango Telecom secured a contract to deploy its messaging platform iAX SMS from
multinational telecoms operator Airtel, in Ghana and Madagascar. The advanced technology will enable
prepaid and postpaid charging, storage and delivery of A2P, P2P and P2A messages and revenue-generating
messaging services from a single platform.
Jun-09
Telecoms operator MTN Ghana has launched its DSTV mobile in collaboration with pay-TV broadcaster
DMTV and handset manufacturer Nokia. The operator's subscribers will now be able to watch 11 DSTV
channels on their mobile handsets. At present, the service is available to MTN subscribers in Accra and
Tema, in Ghana.
May-09
The chairman of UK-based mobile group Vodafone, John Bond, has said the operator plans to invest up to
US$700mn developing telecoms infrastructure in Ghana. The investment plans were disclosed during a
recent meeting in London between top executives from Vodafone and the Ghanaian government delegation
headed by President John Evans Atta Mills.
Jan-09
MTN and Airtel launch 3G services. This is their first introduction in Ghana. The service is initially limited to
the capital Accra, but both declare plans to expand. Vodafone contracts Huawei to upgrade its networks to
3G.
Source: BMI
Page 63
Regulatory Development
Regulatory Overview
Table: Ghana's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Regulatory Body
Responsibilities
Ministry of
Communication
The Ministry of Communications is headed by the minister, who is put forward as a

candidate by the current government before a parliamentary committee for approval. The
approval process involves the ministerial candidate setting out his agenda and priorities for
the regulatory regime during his tenure as minister. These priorities can often be influenced
by politics and popularity.
PO Box M38
Accra
Ghana
Tel: +233 21 666465
Fax: +233 21 667114
Web: www.moc.gov.gh
The National
Communications
Authority (NCA)
The ministry is certainly able to set policy with regard to telecoms to a certain extent.
However, the aim of providing a stable environment for operators could not be achieved if
policy completely changed with each change of government, so the ministry has the
capability to put pressure on the regulator, but not to completely control its policies.
The NCA was established by parliamentary decree in 1996 as a convergent regulatory body
for the telecommunications, broadcasting and ICT sectors. It was intended to provide a
stable operating environment for all participants, as well as promoting fairness and efficiency.
PO Box CT1568
Cantonments
Accra
Ghana
Tel: +233 21 776621
Fax: +233 21 763449
Web: www.nca.gov.gh
Source: NCA, BMI
Competition
Competition in Ghana's telecoms sector is vibrant. There are six licensed mobile operators, all of which are
active. The sixth operator launched commercial services in April 2012 after a four-year delay. As well as
the incumbent Vodafone Ghana, there is currently one additional licensed fixed-line operator. Although the
second fixed-line operator was formerly known as Westel, it was subsequently bought by Kuiwat's
Zain Group before, more recently, being purchased by India's Bharti Airtel. Airtel Ghana only has a few
thousand lines in operation, so the competition posed to Vodafone is illusory. The regulator aims to rectify
this by auctioning national and zonal fixed-wireless licences.
Ghana launched MNP services on July 7 2011. The introduction of mobile number portability (MNP) had
been discussed for some time and in February 2009 the issue came to the fore, when as ministerial
Page 64
candidate, Haruna Iddrisu, raised it as a priority during his potential tenure as Minister for Communications,
during the parliamentary vetting process.
Iddrisu, who was later confirmed as Minister for Communications, pushed for a stronger regulatory
environment and for MNP to be introduced as soon as possible, implying that the regulator, the NCA, had
not done enough to look after the interests of mobile consumers in Ghana. MNP was closely tied to the
issue of poor network quality during the discussions, with MPs suggesting mobile users should be freely
able to punish networks for their poor quality service by porting to another provider.
Licensing
The converged licensing system adopted by the NCA was praised in a report from consulting firm Ernst
and Young in early 2009 as the best in Africa. The licensing procedures are clearly explained in full on the
NCA website.
In January 2011 the NCA awarded Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) licences in the 2,500-2,690MHz
band to GoldKey Properties Limited. GoldKey won a paired slot of 2x15MHz at a final auction price of
US$5.5mn and Broadband Home (BBH), which was already operating in the band and exercised the
option to maintain an unpaired 30MHz slot for the final auction price according to the terms and conditions
of the BWA licences on offer.
In March 2013, Surfline Limited and GoldKey Properties Limited won new broadband wireless access
(BWA) licences also in the 2,500-2,690MHz band. Both firms were awarded a licence each for paired
frequency configuration. Meanwhile, G-Kwiknet Limited was awarded a licence for unpaired
configuration. The licences are valid for 10 years and cost US$6mn each.
Also in March 2013, the NCA announced it would not issues licences to any mobile operators for the
deployment of LTE networks, in order to ensure that operators fully develop their 3G networks before
moving on to more advances technology.
Page 65
Ghana Telecom Privatisation
Despite the acquisition of Ghana Telecom by Vodafone in 2008, the political issue of whether the sale was
properly contested persists. New Communications Minister Iddrisu established a committee in May 2009
tasked with examining the deal. The row over Vodafone's purchase of Ghana Telecom came to a head in
October 2009, when a review of the sale of a 70% stake in the incumbent operator to the British mobile
giant, which was finalised over a year ago, recommended that the Ghanaian government attempt to
renegotiate the terms of the sale, reports cellular-news. Vodafone rebranded all of Ghana Telecom's
operations in April 2009 under the Vodafone banner.
Regulatory Developments
MNP Introduced
Ghana's NCA finally launched MNP service on July 7 2011. The move gives mobile users the option of
switching service providers while retaining their existing phone numbers. It is understood the NCA has
completed more than 90% of the necessary technical groundwork needed to facilitate MNP. Meanwhile, the
regulator has reportedly selected a privately owned joint-venture partnership, Porting Access Ghana (PAG),
to establish a central database of all ported numbers and also to facilitate porting within a 24-hour period.
The service costs individual mobile users around GHC4 (US$2.50) to port their number to the new network
provider via PAG's system. It is hoped the introduction of number porting will increase competition and
drive down prices; this will occur as operators introduce new offers in a bid to retain customers and
minimise churn. In August 2011 the NCA revealed 21,059 subscribers ported their numbers to other mobile
operators by July 31 2011. NCA said 10% of the porting was concluded in 15 minutes or less, 23% in
between 15 minutes and one hour, 34% in between one and four hours, 31% between four and 24 hours and
2% was done in more than 24 hours.
In July 2012, the NCA published a report to celebrate the passing of one year since mobile number
portability (MNP) was introduced in the country. By July 6 2012, 370,107 mobile numbers had been
successfully ported, accounting for 1.6% of active mobile numbers in Ghana - a good result compared to
markets in which MNP is considered successful. Mobile telecoms companies Vodafone and Tigo were the
biggest winners, gaining 44,000 and 68,000 respectively, while Airtel and Globo were helped by MNP with
gains of 6,500 and 7,600 respectively; however, market leader MTN was the biggest loser, dropping
125,000 customers to its rivals.
Spectrum Management Efforts
Page 66
The NCA announced in July 2012 that it intends to free up broadband spectrum by 2015, which could triple
the country's mobile broadband capacity. The spectrum would become available after Ghana switches from
analogue to digital television and could help create 930,000 jobs and 11mn mobile broadband connections
in Ghana by 2020. The NCA's director of regulatory administration has stated that digital migration is due
to be completed by 2014, a year in advance of the global deadline.
However, it will not issue new telecoms licences after all the available space on the GSM spectrum for
mobile operators has been used up. Meanwhile, there are plans to migrate the country's TV networks from
existing analogue to digital platform in 2013, which will free up space on the spectrum.
Although Ghana's communications minister said that the migration of the country's television networks
could provide an opening for new investors that are interested in Ghana's telecoms industry, BMI sees
possible long-term impacts of increasing the number of operators in the market. With a minimum of five
operators in the market, there is the possibility that additional competition could cause stresses in the market
such as a price war.
NCA Launches QoS Tests
In February 2012, the NCA started service quality tests on operator networks for 2012. The Quality of
Service (QoS) tests are focused on the rates of call set-up, congestion and call drop. The operators will be
offered an opportunity to correct the anomalies on their networks; however, sanctions will be imposed if
they fail to do so, reports Citi Business News, citing NCA Director General Paa Rock Van
Persie. Tigo secured top position with the least network problems, while Airtel reported the worst
challenges, according to 2011 results.
Following the most recent QoS test, in May 2013, the regulator imposed fines totalling GHS900,000 (US
$450,940) on five mobile operators as they failed to meet QoS targets. The regulator imposed
a GHS300,000 (US$150,313) fine each on MTN and Glo, while fines of GHS100,000 (US$50,104.5) each
were imposed on Expresso, Airtel and Tigo. The main areas where quality fell short were call congestion,
call setup time and signalling traffic. Vodafone was the only operator in compliance with all QoS
parameters.
Following Qos tests in June 2012, the NCA imposed a penalty of GHS150,000 (US$78,000) on MTN for
call set-up delays in one region and network congestion issues in two regions. Additionally, Vodafone was
fined GHS50,000 (US$26,000) for call set-up delays in one region, and Tigo received a GHS50,000 (US
$26,000) penalty for signalling congestion in one region. Meanwhile, Airtel and Expresso had their
sanctions suspended pending the conclusion of ongoing network expansion plans.
Page 67
Unregistered SIMs Deactivated

In March 2012, the NCA deactivated more than 1.5mn mobile SIM cards that were not registered during the
process to register all mobile subscribers in the country. Out of the total, 433,246 deactivated SIMs had not
been registered at all, while 1,091,645 had not been used in at least three months and had some problems
with the registration application. Additionally, 3.55mn SIMs that were termed active were under an invalid
registration application.
NCA Fines Glo Mobile
In April 2012, the NCA imposed a fine of US$200,000 on Glo Mobile, part of Nigerian telecoms
operator Globacom, for delaying the launch of its operations in the country. The operator secured its
licence to do business in the country in 2008. The operator until now has invested US$600mn for
purchasing equipment and facilities to carry out operations in the country. Minister of Communications
Haruna Iddrisu gave Glo until April 20 2012 to disclose when it would launch its operations.
MTN Sanctioned For Poor QoS
In December 2012, the NCA banned MTN from selling SIM cards to new customers. The ruling came after
the NCA found the service standard of MTN's network is 'continuing to deteriorate' despite MTN being
warned to improve its network a number of times. The ban was lifted in late January 2013, with the NCA
promising to keep an eye on the continual development in the KPIs compared with the situation before the
ban.
Page 68
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Ghana Telecoms Sector
Company
Name
Ownership
Market
Vodafone
Ghana
G-Com (30%) Vodafone

(70%)
Fixed-line telephony (local, long distance, international), data, internet,

mobile
Airtel Ghana
Bharti Airtel (75%)
Fixed-line telephony (local, long distance, international), data, internet,

mobile
MTN Ghana
MTN (98%)
Mobile
Tigo Ghana
Millicom International (100%) Mobile
Kasapa
Expresso Telecom Group

(100%)
Mobile
Glo Ghana
Globacom Group (100%)
Mobile
Source: BMI
Table: Operators Financial Indicators
2012
Revenue
(US$mn)
MTN Ghana
2011
Revenue
(US$mn)
816.8
778.7
2010
Revenue
(US$mn)
750
2009
Revenue
(US$mn)
643.7
2008
Revenue
(US$mn)
686.9
2007
Revenue
(US$mn)
428.9
2006
Revenue
(US$mn)
193.6
Year
Established
1996
Source: BMI, operators
Page 69
Company Profiles
Vodafone Ghana
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Vodafone Ghana's telecoms incumbent, owning a large proportion of the fixed-line

network, with 274,661 fixed lines in service at the end of December 2012, about
96.4% of the country's total.
Active in all aspects of the telecoms industry, with a fixed-line and mobile network as
well as broadband and broadband services, including a new IPTV offering.
With the UK's Vodafone Group as majority shareholder, Vodafone Ghana now has a
strong international financial backer that is keen to prove itself against its doubters.
Mobile subscriber base reached 5.259mn in December 2012 and market share
increased to over 20%.
Weaknesses
Despite being comparatively well developed next to others in the region, the fixed-line
network is quite limited and will need substantial work and investment if it is to be
seriously expanded.
Launched 3G services much later than rivals MTN and Airtel, and had only a 6.6%
share of the data market in March 2013.
Opportunities
Broadband penetration is still extremely low, so there is good opportunity for growth;
Vodafone Ghana is ahead of the game with new services such as IPTV.
The landing of several international cable systems in Ghana will provide opportunities
for Vodafone Ghana to provide increased bandwidth at reduced costs; this should
help to stimulate growth in the market.
Expanding and improving coverage and services on the Vodafone mobile network will
hopefully enable the operator to gain a larger market share and take advantage of the
high growth rate in Ghana's mobile market.
The arrival of high-capacity submarine cable systems will provide much needed
international bandwidth for high speed data services.
Launch of Vodafone Business Solutions is intended to help the operator better serve
corporate, SME and government customers.
Page 70
Threats
Competition is increasing in the mobile market, with Glo Mobile launching commercial
services in April 2012.
The award of broadband wireless access licences will raise the level of competition in
the broadband sector and provide a new challenge to Vodafone Ghana's currently
dominant ADSL service.
The rapid increase in mobile use inevitably leads to mobile substitution, so the fixedline subscriber base may fall while Vodafone Ghana is trying to make it rise. This is a
difficult atmosphere in which to invest in expanding a fixed-line network.
Company Overview
Vodafone Ghana (formerly Ghana Telecom) is the fixed-line incumbent of Ghana. It also
operates the country's third-ranked mobile operator, originally called One Touch, but
rebranded as Vodafone in April 2009. Ghana Telecom was incorporated in 1995 as the
successor to the telecoms arm of the Post & Telecommunications Company of Ghana
that was established after World War II. It was partially privatised in 1997, with a 30%
stake being sold to G-COM, a consortium led by Telecom Malaysia Berhard. It was later
fully privatised with the remaining government-held 70% stake bought by Vodafone in
August 2008 for US$900mn. There was some controversy surrounding this deal, with
widespread opposition to the sale of valuable state assets to a foreign company. In
addition, Vodafone has no experience of running a fixed-line network and Ghana's
fixed-line network was in need of special attention, despite the fact that the fixed-line
market is fairly well developed compared to many in the region. Since taking over,
Vodafone has made efforts to clearly demonstrate the progress it is making with the
company.
Strategy
In May 2008, 25% of Vodafone Ghana's active phone lines were already public
payphones. With its intention to expand the reach of its network and services, Vodafone
Ghana is likely to expand this number, as this could make service available to those
who do not have a mobile, a group of potential customers that the operator sorely
needs for its fixed-line business. Launching IPTV in 2008 shows Vodafone Ghana's
commitment to innovative new services, even though it may struggle to find a large
audience for them at first.
Since taking control of the company, Vodafone has concentrated on increasing the
number of cell sites, in order to increase coverage and network capacity, which have
Page 71
been reported as problems with the network in the past. Vodafone has also contracted
Huawei to upgrade the mobile network for 3G. No timetable has been set for launch.
Corporate Structure Vodafone has pursued an aggressive investment programme, though not all details
have been made available. In late October 2008, the company announced that cell sites
had multiplied three times over since the Vodafone takeover and that income from
incoming international calls to the mobile network had increased by 161%. Vodafone
Ghana has also outlined a long-term goal of putting a phone in every school and
extending its network to every corner of the country. BMI expects this to be achieved
through mobile and fixed-wireless technologies. In May 2009, Vodafone executives in
the UK revealed plans to spend GBP700mn on expanding its network in Ghana.
In January 2011, Vodafone Ghana awarded Huawei a five-year managed services
agreement under which the manufacturer will take over responsibilities for the
operations and maintenance of the Vodafone mobile, microwave, SDH and fixed
switching networks. It is hoped the long term partnership will provide the telecoms
company with a sustainable operating model, reducing its operating expenses and
enabling it to focus further on providing more attractive new services to its customers.
The network operations agreement signed by the pair also guarantees performance and
service quality of the Vodafone network.
In April 2011, Vodafone Ghana announced that it is spending more than US$500mn to
upgrade its network. The announcement was made by Vodafone business services
director, Derek Appiah. He added that the move will enable the operator to cater to the
demands of its subscribers in the country by providing enhanced capabilities and
optimal service delivery. Vodafone Ghana had already invested more than US$302mn in
its telecoms network as at December 2010.
In May 2011, Vodafone Ghana announced the launch of 'Vodafone Webbox', an
intelligent keyboard which allows users to access the internet through TVs in their
homes, offices and schools. The new device has been developed especially for
Vodafone consumers in emerging markets to bridge the digital divide. In Ghana, the
service costs GHC169 and supports core services such as Opera Mini 5.1 internet
access, SMS and email messaging, internet search and media service. The Webbox
was developed and manufactured in partnership with China's ZTE.
The International Finance Corporation, a part of the World Bank, mobilised a US$115mn
loan for Vodafone Ghana in June 2011 to enable the operator to enhance its network
across the country. The loan has been arranged by the IFC from several German,
Chinese and African institutions, including the Export-Import Bank of China and China
Development Bank. The IFC acted as the lead manager to the deal and will serve as the
administrative agent for the project.
Page 72
Financial
Performance
Vodafone Ghana has not generally released its financial data, and the last annual report
made available by the company was in 2002. Since the government of Ghana signed an
agreement to let Vodafone purchase a 70% stake in Ghana Telecom and take over
management responsibility for the company, financial and operational results should be
included with Vodafone's key performance indicators (KPIs). However, Vodafone has
not yet begun reporting Ghana's results separately from others.
Operational
Developments
Vodafone Ghana reported that it had more than 5.2mn mobile subscribers at the end of
Q412. Of these, 99.4% were prepaid. The number of subscribers rose by 22.2% in the
12 months to December 2012.
The company recorded 274,661 fixed-line subscriptions in Q412.
Financial Data
Operational Data
Company Details
Service revenue for Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific (excluding Vodacom and
India) YE March 2010: GBP3.224bn
Mobile subscribers 2010: 2.722mn
Mobile subscribers 2011: 4.276mn
Mobile Subscribers 2012: 5.259mn
Fixed-line subscribers 2009: 265,000
Fixed-line subscribers (2012): 274,661
Vodafone Ghana
South Liberation Link
Manet Tower A
Airport City
Private Mail Bag 221, Accra North
Accra, Ghana
Tel: +233 0302 200200
Fax: +233 0302 221002
Page 73
MTN Ghana
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Dominant mobile operator in a rapidly growing market; its subscriber base

reached more than 12mn in Q113, with a market share of more than 45%.
Strong international backing from MTN, benefiting from strong international image
and expertise as well as financial support for network improvements
Weaknesses
Commands a 65% share of 3G and mobile broadband market.
Like other operators, struggling to keep up with capacity demand, leading to poor
quality and dropped calls.
ARPU rates fell by 26% in the four years to March 2013.
Although use of data services is growing, they accounted for less than 10% of total
revenue in 2012.
Opportunities
Market share continued to fall during 2010, 2011 and 2012.
As the dominant operator MTN is in a better position to offer attractive propositions

such as cheaper on-net calling
Growing demand for mobile money service; had over 9.5mn total transactions
between 2009 and 2011
Threats
Ongoing fibre deployments will continue to benefit network.
Infrastructure sharing should help reduce network maintenance costs.
Access to international bandwidth from WACS will boost mobile data services.
Increased competition in the mobile market following the launch of commercial

services by sixth operator Globacom in Q112.
Following its acquisition of Zain's African operations, India's Bharti Airtel could
emerge as a new source of strong competition for MTN.
Growth may start to slow as penetration rates creep up, and MTN will have to find
new ways to keep revenue growing.
Page 74
As penetration creeps higher, future mobile customer growth will increasingly come
from the lower end of the market; this means that ARPU levels are likely to be
threatened.
Mobile number portability introduced in July 2011; this is leading to increased churn
levels and erode MTN's market share.
Company Overview
MTN is the dominant mobile operator in Ghana, active in the country since 1996,
previously as Scancom and Areeba. MTN Group has a 98% shareholding in MTN
Ghana.
In April 2011, it was reported that MTN Ghana planned to reconstitute its board with a
strong Ghanaian representation. It is understood that MTN Group's policy has always
been to allow local participation in shareholding of its operations through private
placement. However, due to some legal disputes over shareholding disputes, MTN
Ghana was prevented from doing so earlier. Those legal disputes are now thought to
have been settled. According to reports, the next step would be to consider a private
placement and not necessarily listing on the stock exchange.
Strategy
MTN launched 3G services in January 2009 and commissioned its WACS cable network
in Ghana in May 2012. The operator is expanding its 3G network infrastructure to take
advantage of increased supply of international bandwidth and rising demand for mobile
data services in the country.
Corporate Structure The company is 98% owned by South Africa's MTN Group. MTN has mobile networks
in countries across Africa and the Middle East.

Financial
Performance
Ghana is one of MTN Groups's large telecoms operations. The operator reports
financial data for its various operations twice a year.
For Q113, MTN Ghana reported a 2.5% q-o-q increase in subscribers, to 12.024mn,
and a drop in blended ARPU to US$5.92. For the full-year ended December 31 2012,
MTN Ghana reported revenue of GHS1.552bn, up by 21.5% y-o-y from GHS1.227bn in
2011. MTN's revenue growth was driven by rising demand for data services. The
operator reported a 96.1% y-o-y increase in data revenues, which accounted for 8.1%
of total revenues for the year. The company's EBITDA increased by 17.9% y-o-y in local
currency, although EBITDA margin fell marginally to 37% from 38.1% in the previous
year.
Page 75
TeleGeography reported the MTN Ghana intends to spend approximately US$105mn

on upgrading and expanding its fibre-optic cabling and 2G and 3G coverage. Capital
expenditure for 2012 was ZAR1.091bn, down significantly from ZAR3.092bn in 2010 but
higher than ZAR851mn in 2011. MTN attributed the lower spend to the change in its
structure following the sale of its towers to an independent tower company. By the end
of 2012, MTN had transferred 1,856 towers to independent tower firms.
Operational
Indicators
The company also reported a 15.5% increase in its subscriber base during 2012 to
11.735mn. MoU in 2012 also rose by 5.9% to 126. However, the ongoing price
competition in the mobile market continues to put downward pressure on ARPU. MTN
reported ARPU of US$6.1 in December 2012, down from US$7 at the end of December
2011.
Mobile Services
MTN provides both prepaid services, which the vast majority of its subscribers use, and
postpaid services, which are primarily designed for business users. It offers a range of
services and special tariffs, including the MTN Zone scheme, which gives registered
users a discount on network calls depending on where they are, and on the level of
traffic at their nearest cell site.
In May 2010, MTN Ghana launched a new commercial entity, called MTN Business, to
offer converged ICT solutions to businesses in Ghana. The MTN Business will provide
communications service to public and private sector organisations, Small, Medium and
Large Scale Enterprises.
In March 2011, MTN Ghana launched a pilot mobile life insurance service called mi-Life
in partnership with South Africa-based Hollard Insurance Group. According to Jeremy
Leach, head of micro-insurance at Hollard, the pilot mobile insurance service in Ghana
involves a simple life product with a premium charged at between GHC1-5. The service
is available to MTN Ghana Mobile Money customers who will be able to submit claims,
queries and make premium payments using their handsets. The operator's distribution
infrastructure will be used for the rollout of mi-Life in Ghana.
Financial Data
Operational Data
MTN Ghana Revenue 2010: ZAR5.7bn

MTN Ghana Revenue 2011: ZAR5.941bn
MTN Ghana Revenue 2012: GHS1.552bn
MTN Ghana EBITDA H112: ZAR1.225bn
MTN Ghana Capex 2010: ZAR3.092bn
MTN Ghana Capex 2011: ZAR851mn
MTN Ghana Capex 2012: ZAR1.091bn
Mobile subscribers December 2011: 10.156mn

Mobile subscribers December 2012: 11.735mn
Mobile subscribers March 2013: 12.024mn
Page 76
Company Details
Scancom Limited
Plot 17&19
10th - 12th Floor
6th Avenue, Ridge
P.O. Box 281 Intl. Trade Fair L
Postcode
Accra - Ghana
Tel: 233 24 4300 000
Fax: 233 21 231974
E-mail: info@mtn.com.gh
Page 77
Regional Overview
Regional Overview
Despite continued investment in terrestrial and submarine cable systems alongside the roll-out of 3G mobile
broadband networks, many African markets continue to suffer from a lack of broadband connectivity. Even
those countries fortunate enough to have gained access to one or more of the region's new gigabit-speed
continent-spanning submarine cables have found bandwidth costs have not fallen sufficiently to enable the
majority of citizens and small/medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to leap the digital divide. And, ultimately,
the deficiencies in ageing last-mile infrastructure can provide the biggest barriers to adoption of all. UKbased Avanti Communications Group plc believes its satellite-based broadband services can address the
region's pent-up demand for broadband.
The Alternative Investment Market (AIM)-listed company launched its second satellite in August 2012,
providing coverage of Southern and Eastern Africa. A third satellite is to be launched by 2016, extending
coverage to North Africa and the Middle East. A fourth would complete the company's proposed African
footprint, delivering high-speed broadband access for half the cost of cable-delivered services and will be
less reliant on patchy and unreliable local power sources than mobile networks.
Slower-than-expected usage of booked capacity hurt Avanti's revenues and profits in fiscal 2012 (year to
June 2012), driving down the company's share price. However, usage - and revenues - gathered momentum
in the six months to December 2012, giving the company more confidence to position itself as a key enabler
of enterprise communications services across Africa.
Page 78
Background
Established in its present form in March 2007,
Avanti sells satellite data communications services
to telecommunications operators, carriers and
service providers, which use them to provide high-
Satellite Just One Broadband Play

Among Many
Sub-Saharan Africa Broadband Forecasts,
2010-2017
speed broadband services to enterprise, institutional

and consumer customers. Avanti's first satellite -
75,000
10
HYLAS 1 - launched in November 2010 and

primarily covered Europe. However, in the belief
50,000
5
there is a huge opportunity for satellite-delivered

broadband services in emerging markets owing to
25,000
ineffectual landline infrastructure, Avanti's
HYLAS 2 was launched in August 2012 and
2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012
0
2011
the emerging European markets for future growth.
0
2010
attentions are turning to Africa, the Middle East and
Sub-Saharan Africa Broadband subscribers, '000 (LHS)

Sub-Saharan Africa Broadband subscribers, % of population (RHS)
extended coverage to Africa, the Caucasus and the

Middle East. HYLAS 3 - to be launched in 2015/16 will broaden coverage of Africa.
Avanti focuses on four core application markets: Enterprise, Broadband, Carrier Services and Defence &
Security. Besides high service quality levels - its satellites use the Ka-band frequency (30GHz), meaning
even the most adverse local weather conditions will not disrupt signals - the company believes its ability to
scale services for end-users' changing needs appeals to enterprises and government agencies in particular,
while telecoms operators unable to connect to the global internet via cables and traditional satellite service
providers should also value the Avanti proposition.
Shareholders in Avanti include M&G Investment Management, Caledonia Investments plc, Government of
Singapore Investment Corporation, The Capital Group Companies, Legal & General Investment
Management and Barclays plc.
2012 Achievements
The company notes in its 2012 results that the flexibility of its system enables it to use different hardware
and software components to redesign services and meet highly bespoke customer requirements. This, it
believes, gives Avanti a competitive advantage over rivals that offer a 'one-size-fits-all' service.
Page 79
Service provider partners leveraging the HYLAS 1 satellite have had considerable success winning
government-funded broadband projects in the UK and Italy, even as Avanti's services have found traction
across northern Europe. Here, Avanti secured service agreements with major international media companies
in the digital cinema and outside broadcasting sectors. It also launched backhaul services for two wireless
service providers, including a deal to provide the world's first Ka band backhaul network for a 3G/4G
mobile operator.
In Africa, on HYLAS 2, Avanti believes it has an added competitive advantage in terms of quality of
coverage. The platform's quality of service is consistent within national borders, ensuring service providers
can deliver universal services within their licensed operating footprints and to a uniform standard. Avanti
notes this was of particular importance to its broadband service provider partners in South Africa and
helped it win its first government contract in that country.
In March 2012, Avanti signed a five-year contract with CommCarrier Satellite Services Ltd of Kenya to
supply satellite bandwidth over East Africa via HYLAS 2. The contract was valued at US$23.9mn over five
years. Earlier, in December 2011, Avanti signed a five-year contract with AfriGlobal Communications
Pty Ltd. This deal, valued at US$4.7mn, covers South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
HYLAS 2's steerable beam has been moved to cover Libya. Within two months of doing so, Avanti sold
more than half of its capacity. Beams over the Middle East were also quick to sell out, reports the company.
Meanwhile, the amount of capacity available for sale has been increased from 9GHz to 11GHz, enabling
Avanti to fulfil outstanding orders and chase important new customers. As of February 2013, the company
said it had customers in all beams, some of which were almost fully sold. Some customers were prepared to
pay deposits, as well as several months' advance payment.
In its 2012 results, Avanti noted customers were beginning to lock into contracts with pre-committed
quarterly increases in capacity. The company had previously reported that some customers had been
growing usage faster than planned, particularly in Northern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, and
had accelerated their purchase of capacity ahead of their contractual commitments. This was combined with
growing acceptance of Ka-band satellite capacity in the mainstream telecoms industry - five large
multinational telecoms, media and technology companies signed contracts with Avanti during 2012.
Meanwhile, construction of HYLAS 3 is on schedule for delivery in late 2015 and capacity on this 4GHz
satellite is being marketed across Africa. Having made the initial capital expenditure outlay, little will be
spent on the project until the financial years ended June 2015 and 2016, as payments to the spacecraft
supplier are back-end loaded.
Page 80
Financial Results
Avanti reports that revenues of GBP8.6mn were recorded in the six months to December 31 2012. This was
a 68% increase from GBP5.1mn a year earlier and was 18% up on the GBP7.3mn recorded for the six
months to June 30 2012. Sales costs increased markedly following the in-orbit acceptance of HYLAS 2,
which was not softened by significant income from usage of the new satellite's capacity. In addition, the
three HYLAS 2 earth stations had operational costs that were incurred from the in-service date.
Furthermore, depreciation weighs on profitability. Satellites are depreciated on a straight line basis over
their 15-year lives and, since depreciation is charged regardless of capacity sold, at this early stage of
HYLAS 2, this generates a gross loss. The loss for the six months to December 2012 was GBP13.8mn,
deeper than the GBP5.2mn loss recorded in the half-year to December 2011.
Avanti reports it has enough business in backlog and in the pipeline to expect to achieve its targets and
already has over GBP40mn of revenue in backlog for the year to June 2014, with another 18 months of
selling still to go. Sales momentum for HYLAS 1 and 2 continues to build well, with a backlog of firm
committed orders of GBP290mn, suggesting Avanti will sell out capacity on its satellites within the planned
timeframe.
Table: Avanti Communications Group Results (GBP '000)
July-Dec 2012
July-Dec 2011
July 2011-June 2012
Revenue
8,626
5,135
12,461
Cost of Sales
5,792
2,563
7,140
Satellite Depreciation
9,183
4,856
9,641
Gross Loss
6,349
2,284
4,320
Operating Expenses
8,959
6,210
13,998
Operating Loss
14,728
6,813
15,759
Losses Before Tax
15,942
6,613
16,007
Loss For Period
13,805
5,223
13,885
Source: Avanti Communications
Page 81
Demographic Forecast
Demographic analysis is a key pillar of BMI's macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. Not only is
the total population of a country a key variable in consumer demand, but an understanding of the
demographic profile is key to understanding issues ranging from future population trends to productivity
growth and government spending requirements.
The accompanying charts detail Ghana's population pyramid for 2011, the change in the structure of the
population between 2011 and 2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050, as well as life
expectancy. The tables show key data points from all of these charts, in addition to important metrics
including the dependency ratio and the urban/rural split.
Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Page 82
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012e
2015f
2020f
Total population
14,793
16,997
19,165
21,640
24,392
25,546
27,315
30,325
0-4 yearrs, total
2,493
2,735
2,888
3,195
3,533
3,631
3,715
3,867
5-9 years, total
2,148
2,402
2,626
2,799
3,115
3,262
3,465
3,655
10-14 years, total
1,862
2,117
2,357
2,591
2,763
2,875
3,085
3,437
15-19 years, total
1,600
1,844
2,084
2,333
2,563
2,627
2,738
3,060
20-24 years, total
1,354
1,575
1,805
2,053
2,299
2,396
2,532
2,708
25-29 years, total
1,112
1,327
1,531
1,764
2,012
2,111
2,261
2,495
30-34 years, total
889
1,086
1,283
1,483
1,716
1,816
1,970
2,220
35-39 years, total
700
867
1,048
1,237
1,432
1,523
1,672
1,927
40-44 years, total
637
680
835
1,009
1,190
1,266
1,388
1,628
45-49 years, total
520
615
652
802
969
1,039
1,149
1,345
50-54 years, total
423
497
585
623
767
831
931
1,106
55-59 years, total
340
398
465
552
590
635
730
886
60-64 years, total
264
311
363
429
511
523
550
682
65-69 years, total
195
230
270
319
382
413
458
495
70-74 years, total
130
157
185
221
265
284
320
386
75+, total
126
155
188
229
283
313
350
429
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Page 83
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012e
2015f
2020f
0-4 years
16.85
16.09
15.07
14.76
14.48
14.21
13.60
12.75
5-9 years
14.52
14.13
13.70
12.94
12.77
12.77
12.69
12.05
10-14 years
12.59
12.45
12.30
11.97
11.33
11.25
11.29
11.33
15-19 years
10.82
10.85
10.88
10.78
10.51
10.29
10.03
10.09
20-24 years
9.15
9.27
9.42
9.49
9.42
9.38
9.27
8.93
25-29 years
7.51
7.81
7.99
8.15
8.25
8.26
8.28
8.23
30-34 years
6.01
6.39
6.70
6.85
7.04
7.11
7.21
7.32
35-39 years
4.73
5.10
5.47
5.71
5.87
5.96
6.12
6.35
40-44 years
4.31
4.00
4.36
4.66
4.88
4.95
5.08
5.37
45-49 years
3.52
3.62
3.40
3.71
3.97
4.07
4.21
4.43
50-54 years
2.86
2.92
3.05
2.88
3.15
3.25
3.41
3.65
55-59 years
2.30
2.34
2.43
2.55
2.42
2.49
2.67
2.92
60-64 years
1.78
1.83
1.89
1.98
2.10
2.05
2.01
2.25
65-69 years
1.32
1.36
1.41
1.48
1.56
1.62
1.68
1.63
70-74 years
0.88
0.92
0.96
1.02
1.09
1.11
1.17
1.27
75+ years
0.85
0.91
0.98
1.06
1.16
1.23
1.28
1.42
Page 84
Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012e
2015f
2020f
88.7
84.7
79.9
76.1
73.6
73.0
71.6
68.0
6,955
7,796
8,513
9,354
10,342
10,778
11,393
12,269
Active population, % of total 3
53.0
54.1
55.6
56.8
57.6
57.8
58.3
59.5
7,839
9,200
10,652
12,285
14,050
14,768
15,921
18,056
83.0
78.8
73.9
69.9
67.0
66.1
64.5
60.7
6,503
7,254
7,870
8,585
9,412
9,768
10,265
10,959
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.8
7.1
7.3
452
542
643
769
930
1,010
1,128
1,310
Dependent ratio, % of total working age 1

Dependent population, total, '000 2
Active population, total, '000
Youth population, % of total working age 5

Youth population, total, '000 6
Pensionable population, % of total working age
7
Pensionable population, '000
f = BMI forecast; 1 0>15 plus 65+, as % of total working age population; 2 0>15 plus 65+; 3 15-64, as % of total
population; 4 15-64; 5 0>15, % of total working age population; 6 0>15; 7 65+, % of total working age population; 8 65+.
Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Table: Ghana's Rural and Urban Population, 1990-2020
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012e
2015f
2020f
Urban population, % of
total
36.4
40.1
44.0
47.8
51.5
52.9
55.1
58.6
Rural population, % of
total
63.6
59.9
56.0
52.2
48.5
47.1
44.9
41.4
Urban population, '000
5,448.2
6,915.4
8,592.9
10,475.5
12,561.8
13,524.0
15,050.3
17,770.4
Rural population, '000
9,519.3
10,330.0
10,936.4
11,439.7
11,830.0
12,021.9
12,264.3
12,554.5
Page 85
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
2G
second generation
GDP Gross Domestic Product NGN Next Generation Network
3G
third generation
GPR Global Packet Radio

S
Service
Mbps megabits per second
ADS
L
Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line
Global System for Mobile

GSM Communications
MHz
ARP
U
Average Revenue per User
HDS High-bit-rate Digital

L
Subscriber Line
MNP Mobile Number Portability
ASP Average Selling Price
HSD High-Speed Downlink

PA
Packet Access
MoU Memorandum of Understanding
BMI
HPS High-Speed Packet

A
Access
MOU Minutes of Use
bn
billion
HSU High-Speed Uplink Packet MPL

PA
Access
S
BTS
Base Transceiver Stations
HTM HyperText Markup

L
Language
MSC Mobile Switching Centre
Hz
Hertz
MVN
O
Mobile Virtual Network Operator
CRM Customer Relationship Management ICT
Information And
Communication
Technology
na
DAMP Digital-Advanced Mobile Phone

S
Service
IDD
OIBD Operating Income before

International Direct Dialling A
Depreciation and Amortization
DLD Domestic Long-Distance
ILD
International LongDistance
POP
Point of Presence
DMB Digital Multimedia Broadcasting
IPO
Initial Public Offering
R&D
research and development
DSL
Digital Subscriber Line
IP
Internet Protocol
SaaS Software-as-a-Service
DSL
AM
Digital Subscriber Line Access

Multiplexer
IPTV Internet Protocol TV
CDM
A
Code Division Multiple Access
megahertz
Multiprotocol Label Switching
not available
SDSL Symmetric Digital Subscriber Line
DSU Digital Subscriber Unit
Integrated Services Digital

ISDN Networks
SIM
DTH Direct-To-Home
ISP
Subscriber Identity Module
Internet Service Provider
SMS Short Messaging Service
DVBH
Digital Video Broadcasting-Handheld IT
Information Technology
TDM
A
Time Division Multiple Access
DVB- Digital Video Broadcasting-Satellite

SH
Handheld
ITU
TDInternational
SCD
Telecommunication Union MA
Time Division-Synchronous Code

Division Multiple Access
e/f
JV
joint venture
trillion
estimate/forecast
trn
EBIT Earnings Before Interest, Taxes,

DA
Depreciation and Amortization
Kbps kilobits per second
UMT Universal Mobile

S
Telecommunications System
EC
KHz
VOD
European Commission
kilohertz
Video On Demand
Page 86
Glossary Of Terms - Continued
2G
second generation
GDP Gross Domestic Product NGN Next Generation Network
EME
A
Europe, Middle East & Africa
km
EVDO
Evolution-Data Optimised
LANs Local Area Networks
VLAN Virtual Local Area Network
FDI
Foreign Direct Investment
LEC
Local Exchange Carrier
WAP Wireless Application Protocol
Long-Term Evolution
WCDM
A
Wideband CDMA
kilometres
VoIP Voice over Internet Protocol
FTTB Fibre-To-The-Building
LTE
FTTH Fibre-To-The-Home
M2M machine-to-machine
WiBr
o
Wireless Broadband
FTP
mn
WiM
AX
Worldwide Interoperability for

Microwave Access
WLL
Wireless Local Loop
File Transfer Protocol
million
Gbps gigabits per second
MEA Middle East & Africa
GPO
N
Gigabit Passive Optical Network
MEN
A
Middle East & North Africa WTO World Trade Organization
Source: BMI
Page 87
Methodology
BMI's telecommunications industry forecasts are generated using a number of principal criteria, and differ
from the regression and/or time-series modelling used in other industries.
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Emerging markets
Average market growth
Weighting
80%
Subjective indicators
- Real GDP growth
25%
- Inflation
-5%
Developed markets
Average market growth
90%
Subjective indicators
- Real GDP growth
15%
- Inflation
-5%
Telecommunications business environment ratings

- Telecommunications ratings
na
- Country risk short-term ratings
na
- Country risk long-term ratings
na
na = not applicable. Source: BMI
Average Market Growth: Indicator takes into consideration the historical growth patterns of the fixedline, internet, broadband and mobile markets, providing a basis from which to forecast. Using historical data
is often the most desirable method of analysis. In most cases, subscriber data is derived from individual
operators and/or national regulators.
Subjective Indicators: Indicators look at a number of factors, such as:
Neighbouring/similar states. These types of markets often share similar telecoms markets. For example,
Japan and South Korea are both highly developed technophile markets where growth prospects are high
in 3G. Meanwhile, China and India both offer high growth in successfully emerging markets.
Tracking growth. High growth may be more likely to be repeated in the near future, and is unlikely to
turn into a significant decline in the short term, although there may be exceptions to this rule.
Page 88
Market maturity. Where markets have reached saturation they are not likely to expand as fast as those
that are less developed.
Competition from alternative technologies, such as VoIP versus fixed-line, ADSL versus WiMAX
Operator behaviour. Operators' corporate strategies and investment behaviour may dictate changes in the
telecommunications market. This is similarly the case for regulatory developments, which have been
accounted for in our integration of the Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings.
The remaining weighting of real GDP represents the health of the economy, and the inflationary weighting
represents investment confidence. For example, high inflation distorts investment confidence in the
telecoms market.
The indicators are adjusted by BMI's independent benchmark ratings, which look at a significantly higher
number of indicators, and involve our:
Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings. A more comprehensive assessment of the Risk/

Return trade-off for the industry (see Telecoms Business Environment Ratings below for greater
explanation); as well as,
Country Risk Ratings. For short-term (one-to-two year period) and long-term (three years and more)
economic and political ratings.
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology: BMI's approach in assessing the risk/reward balance for Telecoms
Industry investors globally is fourfold. First, we identify factors (in terms of current industry/country trends
and forecast industry/country growth) that represent opportunities to would-be investors. Second, we
identify country and industry-specific traits that pose or could pose operational risks to would-be investors.
Third, we attempt, where possible, to identify objective indicators that may serve as proxies for issues/
trends to avoid subjectivity. Finally, we use BMI's proprietary Country Risk Ratings (CRR) in a nuanced
manner to ensure that only the aspects most relevant to the Telecoms Industry are incorporated. Overall, the
system offers an industry-leading, comparative insight into the opportunities/risks for companies across the
globe.
Ratings System: Conceptually, the ratings system divides into two distinct areas:
Rewards: evaluation of sector's size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state
characteristics that may inhibit its development, such as the broader economic/socio-demographic
environment.
Page 89
Risks: evaluation of industry-specific dangers (regulatory and competitive issues) and those emanating from
the state's political/economic profile that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being
realised over the assessed time period.
Indicators: The following indicators have been used. Overall, the rating uses three subjectively measured
indicators, and around 20 separate indicators/datasets.
Table: Ratings Indicators
Indicator
Rationale
Rewards
Industry rewards1
- ARPU
Denotes depth of telecoms market. High-value markets score better than low-value ones.
- No. of subscribers
Denotes breadth of telecoms market. Large markets score higher than smaller ones.
- Subscriber growth,
% y-o-y
Denotes sector dynamism. Scores based on annual average growth over our five-year forecast
period and also take into account the penetration rate.
- No. of operators
Subjective evaluation against BMI-defined criteria. Evaluates market openness and

competitiveness.
Country rewards2
- Urban/rural split
A highly urbanised state facilitates network roll-out and implies higher wealth. Pre-dominantly
rural states score lower, with overall score also affected by country size.
- Age range
Proportion of population under 24 years old. States with young populations tend to be more
attractive markets.
- GDP per capita, US$ A proxy for wealth. High income states receive better scores than low income states.
Risks
Industry risks
- Regulatory
independence
Subjective evaluation against BMI-defined criteria. Evaluates predictability of operating

environment.
Country risks
- Short-term external
risk
Rating from BMI's Country Risk Ratings (CRR). Denotes state's vulnerability to externally
induced economic shock, which tend to be the principal triggers of economic crises.
- Policy continuity
From CRR. Evaluates the risk of a sharp change in the broad direction of government policy.
- Legal framework
From CRR. Denotes strength of legal institutions in each state - security of investment can be a
key risk in some emerging markets.
- Corruption
From CRR. Denotes risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in tendering/business

operations affecting companies' ability to compete.
1. Overall market structure score also affected by telecoms sector tax rate and, where relevant, broader security issues.
2. The overall score for country structure is also affected by the power transmission network's national coverage. Source:
BMI
Page 90
Weighting: Given the number of indicators/datasets used, it would be inappropriate to give all subcomponents equal weight. Consequently, the following weighting has been adopted.
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Component
Weighting, %
Rewards
70, of which
- Industry rewards
65
- Country rewards
35
Risks
30, of which
- Industry risks
40
- Country risks
60
Source: BMI
Sources: Sources used in telecoms reports include national ministries and media/telecoms regulatory
bodies, officially released company results and figures, national and international industry organisations,
such as the CTIA, the GSM Association and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and
international and national news agencies.
Page 91

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Q3 2013

Part of BMIs Industry Report & Forecasts Series

Business Monitor International

2013 Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 18

Fixed Line .............................................................................................................................................. 21

Industry Business Environment Overview ...................................................................... 25

Ghana Risk/Reward Ratings ...................................................................................................................... 29

Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 31

Key Developments .................................................................................................................................. 32

Market Share ........................................................................................................................................ 35

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

Mobile Content .......................................................................................................................................

Table: Ghana Fixed-Line Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Industry Trends And Developments ................................................................................ 61

Regulatory Development .................................................................................................. 64

Regulatory Developments ........................................................................................................................ 66

Competitive Landscape .................................................................................................... 69

Company Profiles .............................................................................................................. 70

Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 78

Table: Avanti Communications Group Results (GBP '000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 82

Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ..................................................................................................... 89

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

BMI Industry View

Risk/ Reward Ratings

Key Trends And Developments

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

Relatively strong subscriber growth continues, despite penetration having surpassed

Vibrant competition, with six active mobile networks.

The sector continues to suffer from quality of service issues.

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

SWOT Analysis - Continued

Although it can be beneficial for subscribers, new competition increases the

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

The presence of Vodafone as a major international investor in the fixed-line market is

Fixed-line infrastructure is very limited.

Ghana Telecom's National Communications Backbone Company has a monopoly

Potential to issue additional licences for the construction of competing national

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

SWOT Analysis - Continued

The award of broadband wireless access (BWA) licences offer significant

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

Ghana is widely regarded as a rapidly maturing African democracy, with peaceful

Ghana's participation in many peacekeeping missions across the continent has

Corruption is still a concern, both in the private and public arena.

Intra- and inter-party squabbling is common and is an impediment to constructive

Business Monitor International

Ghana Telecommunications Report Q3 2013

SWOT Analysis - Continued

Business Monitor International