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Influence of climate change on concrete

durability in Yucatan peninsula


P. Castro-Borges* and J. M. Mendoza-Rangel
The environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) are becoming more evident.
Nonetheless, efforts to document its effects on the durability of infrastructure are still limited.
The present study used long term data (19612008) on temperature, relative humidity,
precipitation and evaporation recorded in a tropical microclimate of the port of Progreso
(Yucatan, Mexico) in order to detect climatic patterns associated to GCC. In addition, the authors
analysed chloride profiles in concretes of different quality but of the same age (15 years) and
exposed to the same microclimate. Results suggest the presence of environmental changes
associated to GCC during the last 40 years, especially in terms of average and maximum
temperature, which showed increases of 1 and 0?22uC per decade respectively. Results also
showed that seasonal and multiannual climatic cycles had an influence on the behaviour of the
chloride profile of the studied concretes and thus on their durability.
Keywords: Global climatic change, Temperature, Infrastructure, Chlorides, Concrete, Durability

Introduction
Global climate change (GCC) is a reality and has been
properly documented during recent years.1 Carbon dioxide and other contaminants accumulate in the atmosphere and trap the heat, thus causing an overall
increase in global temperatures. This gradual increase
in temperature has become evident and has caused
changes, such as negative effects on human health2,3 via
heat waves and diseases, changes in ecosystem function,
which have lead to species loss,4 increase in ocean temperatures,5 which have led to glacier melting, changes in
the timing of melting and an increase in ocean level,68
and changes in climate patterns characterised by an
overall increase in temperature,9 more frequent and
severe droughts, fires and storms. Nonetheless, very little
information exists with respect to GCC effects on steel
and concrete infrastructure,1012 potentially resulting in
a decrease in infrastructure durability. For example,
more frequent and intense hurricanes carry rains with
chlorides from the sea, which impact the infrastructure
of sites that were originally not designed or constructed
with such greater frequency or intensity of effects in
mind. As a result, infrastructure deterioration may occur
at an accelerated rate, and infrastructure service life
decreases substantially.
Preventing or minimising infrastructure effects due to
hurricanes may be feasible and realistic. However, midand long term effects of GCC on concrete infrastructure
are still unknown, and it is not clear how they can be
tested for. One relevant aspect which deserves attention
Centro de Investigacion y de Estudios Avanzados del IPN, Unidad Merida,
A.P. 73 Cordemex, CP 97310, Merida, Yucatan, Mexico
*Corresponding author, email pcastro@mda.cinvestav.mx

2010 Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining


Published by Maney on behalf of the Institute
Received 16 April 2009; accepted 29 July 2009
DOI 10.1179/147842209X12489567719662

is the infrastructure chemical changes, such as the


transportation of aggressive agents (e.g. chlorides) as a
result of changes in temperature. Chlorides, for instance,
are the main cause of metal corrosion in concrete structures. Nonetheless, previous studies have only focused
on the risks of GCC effects on concrete structures at
large scales10 as a result of major climatic events, such as
hurricanes, flooding, strong rains, etc., as well as ways to
prevent or minimise these climatic effects.
The present study is based on a recompilation of
43 years of microclimatic data from a site located at the
port of Progreso (Yucatan, Mexico). These data were used
to test for an influence of recent GCC on concrete chloride
concentration, which is the main cause of deterioration of
concrete structures exposed to coastal environments. The
main objective of this work was thus to detect evidence of
GCC during the last four decades and relate GCC as well
as multiyear and seasonal climatic variation to the
behaviour of the chloride profile of concretes of different
quality exposed to a coastal environment.

Experimental
Concrete specimens of different quality and curing time
ct were exposed to a coastal environment since 1993 and
were located at different distances from the coastline in
Progreso, Yucatan (21u169330 N and 89u399140 W). For
this study, the authors used data recorded from specimens located at a station, which was 100 m inland from
the coast and with compression strength f9c of 150, 250
and 350 kg cm22, water/cement ratios w/c of 0?46, 0?53
and 0?76 and a ct of seven days.

Climatic data
The authors obtained climatic data from the Centro
Meteorologico de la Comision Nacional del Agua to

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Influence of climate change on concrete durability in Yucatan

characterise the microclimate of the sampled station.


Data consisted of maximum temperature, average temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and evaporation,
from 1961 (in some cases 1970) to 2008. The authors
used annual means of each variable for statistical
analyses.

Materials
Cylindrical concrete specimens of 7?5615 cm were
fabricated. Thirty of these probes were made only of
concrete to monitor chlorides and carbonation, while
another 30 were made with a steel bar and a reference
electrode (RE) embedded in the concrete in order to
monitor corrosion patterns. A total of 60 probes were
present at this sampling station. Both types of probes
were simultaneously exposed to environmental conditions since 1993, which means that both groups were
subjected to aggressive effects such as salt in the air,
carbonation, high temperatures, rainfall and high relative humidity.

portion showed an acceptable gradation, while the sand


portion had an excess of fine material. The selection and
characteristics of these materials were determined based
on typical conditions observed in the region.
Cement

The authors used an ordinary Portland cement (OPC),


which was fabricated locally. Physical and chemical
properties of the cement are shown in Tables 1 and 2.
Water

Tap water was used for mixing, and during the curing
stage, 2% of limestone was added to the water in order
to increase the pH and, in this way, avoid the loss of
alkalinity during the fabrication process.
In order to have an idea of the corrosion potential of
the materials before their use, the authors recorded their
chloride content before they were exposed (results are
presented in Table 3). These measurements showed that
the materials used were below what is considered
aggressive based on standards ACI-201 and ACI-318.13

Aggregates

Reinforcement steel

Probes were fabricated using crushed aggregates


brought from a quarry, which was close to the coast
and which supplies material to most of the construction
companies that operate in the north of Yucatan. The
granulometric analysis showed that the coarse grained

The authors used A no. 3, grade 42, reinforcement steel,


which was fabricated locally following specifications
found in the Mexican standards NOM-B-6-1993 and
DGN-B-434-1969 (according to the manufacturers
records).

Table 1 Chemical properties of OPC used in present


study
21.30
4.67
4.19
64.98
0.16
2.62
1.48
0.83
52.00
22.00
5.00
13.00
1.50
0.47

SiO2
Al2O3
Fe2O3
CaO
K2O
SO3
Ca
MgO
C3S
C2S
C3A
C4AF
Ign
Ins

3.50% (max.)
5.00% (max.)

3.00% (max.)
0.75% (max.)

Table 2 Physical properties of OPC used in present


study
Specific surface Blaine method
Fineness
Vicat
False setting
Autoclave
Compressive
strength

3532 2800 cm2 g21

Concrete

Three types of concrete were used based on the w/c


fabrication ratios used (w/c50?76, 0?53 and 0?46), of
which the most commonly used is 0?76 in the case of
constructions, which are periodically supervised such as
houses. A w/c ratio of 0?53 is common for buildings such
as schools, while 0?46 is rarely used based on the
environmental conditions present in the region. The
compressive strength f9c as a function of the w/c ratio is
given in Table 4. Despite strong variation in temperature typically observed in the study region, concrete is
usually cured for one to three days in the case of
material used for houses and constructions that are not
supervised. Specified curing time for schools and government buildings is of 728 days, although in practice, it
usually does not exceed seven days. Based on this, the
present study used a curing time of seven days as well as
w/c ratios of 0?46, 0?53 and 0?76.

Experimental cell
Specimen design

US 200
97.85
US 325
88.63
Initial
133 0.45 h
Final
165 8.00 h
Per cent penetration
69 50%
Per cent expansion
0 0.80%
24 h
83
Three days
203 130 kg cm22
Seven days
255 200 kg cm22

A cylindrical mould was used to fabricate the specimens.


A hole was made at the base of the mould to provide
Table 4 Compressive strength of 15630 cm
cylinders used according to ASTM C39
w/c ratio
f9c, kg cm22

0.76
157.00

0.70
172.50

0.53
221.50

0.50
290.33

Table 3 Estimation of total chloride ion content for material used to fabricate concrete cylinders*
Ingredient

Chloride contents in ingredients

Typical chloride contents (ACI-318 building code)

Cement
Sand
Coarse aggregate
Water

8,78 ppm
0,0227 pwa
0,0207 pwa
213 ppm

50100 ppm
0.0010.04 pwa
0.0010.04 pwa
No more than 250 ppm

*ppm, parts per million, pwa, per cent per weight of aggregate.

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concrete
0.46
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Castro-Borges and Mendoza-Rangel

1 Schematic representation of one of concrete specimens used in present study

two exits for the steel in order to avoid segregation or


spills during the steelconcrete interphase. One Ti/IrO2
bar was embedded in the concrete and used as a RE for
corrosion measurements; the RE had been previously
characterised.14 The RE was located between the steel bar
and the concrete surface and exactly at the midpoint
between the two extremes of the cylinder. Previous to
setting the concrete, the reinforcement steel received a
treatment which consisted of weighing the steel as
received from the manufacturer, applying an epoxy cover
and using a tape to limit the sampling area and isolating
its surface from the air at the concretesteel interphase.
This was done to avoid cracks in the concrete, which
would cause undesired penetration of chlorides or the
formation of cells with differential aeration.15
The mould was sealed, and the concrete was set once
the ER and the steel had been placed in the mould.
Special care was taken to construct the specimens with
equal w/c ratios and curing times and that the fabrication process was conducted by only one person. Specimens were stored after the curing period, and before
they were exposed to the environment, they were painted
with an epoxy cover to control which areas were to be
exposed to environmental conditions and protect the
areas for which the effect of aggressive agents was not
desired (Fig. 1). After a series of initial tests (CO2, Cl2,
etc.) the probes were exposed to the environment. The
authors had two specimens with embedded steel and two
without steel for each combination of variables (w/c and
ct).

Influence of climate change on concrete durability in Yucatan

occurred only in a radial direction. A slice of each specimen was cut before exposure and when the corrosion
parameters started showing apparent values of
0?2 A cm22 in the steel for any of the specimens, which
had an embedded reinforcement. This value is considered as the standard critical value for the apparent
corrosion current density Icorr, which indicates damage
to structures that are influenced by Cl2 and CO2.16 On
the dry part of the recently obtained slice, a dissolution
of ethyl alcohol with 1% of phenolftalein was applied to
assess carbonation depth.17 The powders which are
necessary for the extraction of Cl2 were obtained by
means of a drill and were sifted with a no. 50 sieve.18
Previous studies have reported that free chlorides may
depassivate steel and that under these conditions water
extraction is recommended.19 Nonetheless, it is clear
that carbonation has an influence, and thus, it may
contain more free chlorides. Because a potential risk
may exist because of this situation, it should be
evaluated, and this is why the authors conducted an
acid extraction of total chlorides.17 Based on previous
tests conducted by the authors, as well as from other
studies,19,20 an extraction technique was developed,
which produced results that coincided with those
obtained from techniques specified in standards ASTM
C144 and UNE-217. This method consists of drying a
powder sample at 105uC for an hour. Once this drying
period has concluded, samples are placed in a desiccator
for 15 min. A 2?5 g subsample is then obtained and
diluted in 100 mL of a 0?06M HNO3 solution, which is
subsequently agitated for 10 min. The resulting solution
is appraised to 125 with the 0?06M HNO3 solution and
is allowed to sediment for an hour, after which the
sample is filtered with Whatman paper no. 2. Fifty
millilitre subsamples are then taken from the filtered
solution to which 1 mL of a 5M sodium nitrate solution
is added. These subsamples are then agitated at a constant velocity, and the concentrations are read following
instructions from a selective ion electrode (Orion 941700, 9002-00).

Results
Climatic data
Figure 2 shows data for maximum temperature, average
temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and evaporation.
In all cases, a gradual increase was observed from 1961
to 2008, which is confirmed by the tendency line which
also predicts that this behaviour will continue during
the following years. This linear tendency was more
pronounced in the case of maximum temperature.
Interestingly, multi-year cycles were observed for all
variables.
Figure 3 shows accumulated values and tendency lines
for each value for each of the recorded variables, and
although it is recognised that this result is of no real
physical value, useful information may be obtained as
for example variation in climatic parameters remained
constant and showed a systematic pattern throughout
the period of study.

Chlorides

Chemical analyses
Chlorides and carbonation

The faces of the cylinders made only of concrete were


sealed with wax to assure that CO2 and Cl2 penetration

Figure 4 shows chloride profiles recorded for the specimens at 0, 24, 45, 78 and 126 months after exposure. The
greatest chloride concentrations recorded at 0 and 24
months occurred for specimens with the lowest f9c, while

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Influence of climate change on concrete durability in Yucatan

2 a maximum temperature, b mean temperature, c rainfall, d relative humidity and e evaporation

chloride content decreased for specimens with greater


resistances. This makes sense because the w/c ratio
improves when f9c is greater, making the structure less
porous and thus limiting chloride diffusion.
Nonetheless, after 45 months, chloride concentration
inside the probes was more variable. This suggests that
concrete quality is not the only factor influencing the
movement of these aggressive agents and that other
parameters may have an effect. As discussed ahead,
atmospheric parameters are of great importance in
explaining the observed results.

Discussion
To the authors knowledge, there have been no studies
which have looked at the combined effect of GCC and
microclimate on infrastructure durability in the Yucatan
peninsula. Although there is available information on
the penetration mechanism21 and interpretation of
chloride profiles for concrete structures exposed to
tropical coastal environments of the region,22 long term
data had not been recorded yet, and it has not been
linked to atmospheric records. Thus, findings from this

3 Accumulated values for a maximum temperature, b mean temperature, c rainfall, d relative humidity and e evaporation:
values showed constant variation through time

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Influence of climate change on concrete durability in Yucatan

a 0 month; b 24 months; c 45 months; d 78 months; e 126 months


4 Chloride concentration prole at different penetration depths, compression strengths and times during study

study allow a discussion on climate change effects on


corrosion mechanisms in concrete structures.

Seasonal and multiyear climatic cycles


Based on Fig. 2, a cyclic pattern can be observed for all
of the atmospheric parameters included in the study,
each cycle lasting a more or less constant number of
years. Although there are some differences in cycle
amplitude and frequency, cycles continue despite the
annual increase in temperature. Previous GCC studies
and reports included in this study1,2327 do not discuss
this cyclic behaviour in detail. It is interesting to note
that the frequency of cycle periods is not annual but
multiannual and that each cycle lasts ,10 years (Fig. 5).
This finding suggests that the observed pattern may not
be governed by local atmospheric conditions but by
external factors such as the Earths movement around
the sun, which could in turn be affected by changes in
solar activity such as periods of high sunspot activity
which occur approximately every 11 years and describe
cycles.28,29 Based on this, the multiyear cyclic pattern
appears not to be affected by local phenomena such as
the increase in temperature due to the emission of
greenhouse gases. Thus, regardless of greenhouse gas
concentrations increasing or decreasing after the Kyoto
protocole30 and thus of future increases in global

5 Multiannual cycles of maximum temperature observed


at study site

temperatures,31,32 the observed cyclic pattern is expected


to continue. Although these arguments may explain, at
least in part, the observed multiyear cyclic pattern for
climatic parameters, more evidence is needed to
corroborate this pattern. Nonetheless, the data presented here suggest that despite current effects of global
warming on the planet, multiyear climate cycles may not
be altered, at least not dramatically, but calls for future
research initiatives, which look into these patterns and
their implications in the context of GCC.
Changes in amplitude and/or frequency in the multiyear cycle have also been reported in previous
studies,1,2327 and although these studies were conducted
at greater spatial scales, they show evidence of the same
periodic pattern in temperature. In fact, most reports
indicate that the highest temperatures were recorded for
the 1990s, mostly in 1998, which agrees with the data
shown in Fig. 5. This same figure suggests that another
peak in temperatures will soon take place.
If the observed climatic behaviour were to be confirmed in other microclimates, then perhaps this information would represent a useful tool to understand and
control the effects of multiyear cycles on agricultural
lands or urban areas, which are affected by variation in
climatic conditions.
On the other hand, between season variation in
climatic parameters was also clearly observed (Fig. 6).

6 Seasonal temperature versus time

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Influence of climate change on concrete durability in Yucatan

Maximum temperature values from 1970 to 2008


exhibited a cyclic behaviour, which was similar for all
four seasons, including a gradual temporal increase in
maximum temperature for each season; maximum
temperatures were greatest during spring (April to
June). This suggests that external factors not only
favour a multiyear cycle for maximum temperatures
but may also be responsible for a seasonal cyclic pattern
for this variable. For instance, if more data supported
the idea that sunspots are responsible for the observed
multiannual temperature behaviour, then peaks in
temperature as well as their duration may be used to
predict seasonal and annual maximum temperature
values. Figure 5 shows that temperature multiyear cycles
have a duration of ,10 years, which suggests that, in
2012, another peak in temperature will take place, which
should coincide with a predicted period of high sunspot
activity.28
Based on this, the authors conclude that a multiyear
pattern of maximum temperature values is described by
the data, and this pattern may be controlled by extrinsic
factors, that is, phenomena which take place outside
local atmospheric conditions such as sunspot activity,
which describes cycles that coincide with the observed
climatic pattern. Likewise, annual cycles (between
season) in maximum temperatures were also observed
and were of a particular intensity depending on the
season. These intra-annual cycles are controlled mainly
by local atmospheric conditions.

Gradual increase in annual maximum


temperature
Microclimatic data recorded at the study site indicated
that, despite multiyear cycles, temperature values
exhibited a steady increase. From 1970 to 2008, annual
maximum temperature values increased by 4?2uC, while
mean temperature values from 1961 to 2008 increased
1?1uC. This means that maximum and average temperature values showed a per decade increase of 1 and 0?22uC
respectively (as shown in Fig. 2a and b). Such values are
larger than those reported previously in the literature,9,10
including the intergovernmental panel on climate change
(IPCC) report,1 which reports an increase in 0?13uC per
decade. None of the studies included in this work2327,33
reported temperature increases as large as the average
value found here, although it should be noted that the
microclimate used here is considered dry very warm and
warm.34
Maximum temperatures are probably the single
variable which have the greatest negative effect on
ecosystems and has a large influence on GCC effects.
Nonetheless, no studies have so far looked at long term
patterns and predictions for this variable at the study
region. Although previous studies make use of sophisticated computer models to predict future temperature
patterns,35 it is also important to generate empirical
methods which make model predictions more robust
and easy to use and, in this way, analyse the potential
risks that such temperature changes will bring and make
timely decisions. Figure 7 shows a graph with the
maximum temperatures of each multiyear cycle and
also provides a linear tendency with an almost perfect
fit. Nonetheless, it is evident that there are a series of
additional factors which could influence the observed
tendency, and although the linear fit is not surprising,

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7 Maximum temperature values for each multiyear cycle


and temperature prediction with linear trend

predictions remain uncertain. The tendency line indicates that by 2010, average temperature will increase by
0?3uC compared to 2008 and that, by years 2020 and
2030, temperature will increase by 1 and 2uC respectively
compared to 2010. In other words, the rate of temperature increase would be consistent with what has
been observed at the study site during the last 30 years.
Although this 1uC increase per decade may not be
constant in the future, at present, it represents useful
information, which should be considered in decision
making processes.
Based on this, the authors conclude that the observed
increase in maximum temperature during the last four
decades, based on maximum values of each multiyear
cycle, is evident and appears to follow, at least at the
moment, a well defined linear tendency. This finding is
relevant for future climate change predictions and
provides relevant information for studies and strategies
designed to understand and limit the impact of GCC on
human infrastructure and natural ecosystems.

Multiyear cycles and seasonal climatic effects


on concrete infrastructure
Global climate change studies included in this work have
focused mainly on the effects of climate change on
natural resources, such as water,5 increase in sea level,68
global warming,9 negative effects on agriculture,4 melting of polar caps36,37 and risk of infectious diseases.2,3
However, very few have looked at GCC effects on
concrete infrastructure,1012 and the focus of such
studies has not been the durability of concrete but
instead potential risks associated to torrential rains,
flooding and hurricanes as well as measures which
should be taken when building new structures considering climate change effects.
Undoubtedly, the microclimate studied in this work
showed clear evidence of GCC during the last 40 years,
specifically an increase in temperature (Fig. 2a). Such
increase in temperature remained despite a multiyear
cycle pattern, and this can be observed based on the
linear tendency shown in Fig. 2a. On the other hand,
Fig. 8 shows chloride concentration profiles which are
typical of probes exposed to the studied microclimate.
Under these conditions, the authors expected drastic
changes in the chloride profile due to the aggressiveness
of events, such as rains, winds, drought, etc. Indeed, as
shown in Fig. 8, independently of concrete quality, a
characteristic chloride profile can be observed for each
season. Short term studies, including those which have
been conducted in the studied microclimate,22 have
reported an accumulation of chlorides over time,
especially at sampling sites located close to the steel

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a a/c50?76, f9c5150 kg cm22; b a/c50?53,


250 kg cm22; c a/c50?46, f9c5350 kg cm22
8 Chloride proles versus time

f9c5

bar. These results suggest that a saturation point may be


reached after a given amount of time. Nonetheless, long
term studies such as the present work not only show an
increase in chloride amount over time but also multiyear
cycles, which had not been previously reported in the
literature (Fig. 9). Such cyclic pattern is most likely
related to the multiyear atmospheric cycles previously
discussed. Previous studies agree that concrete infrastructure is influenced by environmental conditions;
however, all of the information generated so far comes
from short term studies, and the influence of additional
factors driving or at least affecting a multiyear cycle has
not been discussed yet. The fact that concrete chloride
amounts vary in a multiyear manner may offer a new
way of analysing and determining concrete structure
durability and service life and is relevant in terms of
predictions and damage control in concrete due to
atmospheric effects. These findings offer a new paradigm, which refers to multiyear view of climate effects
on the durability behaviour of concrete structures, at
least with respect to chlorides and corrosion. However,
it will be necessary also to describe the corrosion
behaviour of concrete structures under periods of
extreme heat and drought, as corrosion velocity may
decrease considerably under these conditions.
Total chloride cycles recorded for each specimen are
shown in Fig. 9. This figure not only shows internal
global variation through time but also how this
variation matches that of multiyear cycles in atmospheric variables (Fig. 10, which indicates when the
chloride profiles were recorded). The lowest inflection
points corresponded to time periods for which both

Influence of climate change on concrete durability in Yucatan

9 Total amount
specimens

of

chlorides

recorded

for

concrete

chloride concentrations and maximum temperature


values were lowest throughout the cycle.
Temperature, as well as other parameters, showed a
multiyear cycle pattern. For time recorded in the
chloride concentration profiles, a complete cycle of
temperature is obtained. However, it has no coincidence
with the atmospheric multiyear one, but curiously, it
could be replicated in other cycles (Fig. 10). During the
multiyear climate cycle, which included the reported
chloride profiles (Fig. 10), the latter showed an increase
in quantity, and when the following multiyear cycle
started, the chloride profile also started a new cycle. This
result was clear and was observed for all of the recorded
data in this study. If the authors had not included the
atmospheric data, the observed temporal pattern of
chloride concentrations would have probably been
interpreted as human introduced error during data

10 Multiyear cycles and chloride sampling periods after a


0 month, b 24 months, c 45 months, d 78 months and
e 126 months

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collection. However, measurements were repeated with


the remaining material, and the results were consistent.
Evidence of GCC was observed in this study based on
the multiyear cycles for the measured variables as well as
the gradual increase in temperature throughout the
study period. This scenario has an effect on chloride
concentration profiles which damage concrete infrastructure, especially in coastal marine environments.
Nonetheless, knowledge on the existence and duration
of climatic multiyear cycles offer a relevant tool to
prevent damage on concrete structures by protecting
them before high impact periods. Likewise, corrosion
control strategies may also be based on the intensity and
duration of multiyear climate cycles, although further
evidence is necessary to corroborate the link between
these cycles and periods of accelerated corrosion.
Future studies should corroborate the results for
other types of concrete, under different microclimatic
conditions, as well as incorporate other effects such as
different curing times. The authors expect that the
observed multiyear cycles may be relevant for other
fields of study, such as ecology, agriculture and health
sciences. Such cycles may help explain the degree of
impact and risks associated to GCC as well as the
consequences GCC has for natural and modified
ecosystems and human health.
The authors conclude that chloride concentration,
which is largely associated to concrete durability, is
driven not only by seasonal atmospheric fluctuations but
also describes a pattern of multiyear cycles potentially
driven by additional factors. Moreover, chloride concentration levels will also be affected by GCC effects
such as greater rainfall or humidity and greater temperatures. Based on this, any type of damage caused by
the environment on concrete structures should consider
variation at two time scales: seasonal climate patterns
throughout the year as well as long term patterns such as
multiyear cycles. Future studies should consider both
time scales and measure their contribution to concrete
durability and, in this way, develop more precise models
of concrete structure service life or life cycle. In this way,
structure service life should be defined38 and modelled
using different stages in order to provide a more holistic
way of analysing, which factors influence concrete
structure durability.39,40

Conclusions
Based on results for atmospheric data and chloride
concentration, the authors present the following conclusions, which apply to the microclimatic conditions at
the study site, as well as materials and fabrication
method used.
1. Temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and evaporation recorded for the studied microclimate all
showed a well defined tendency to increase throughout
the 40-year sampling period.
2. Maximum and mean temperature increased gradually throughout the sampling period, at a rate of 1
and 0?22uC per decade respectively. This contrasts the
rate of increase reported in the IPCC (0?13uC per
decade) as well as in other international reports.
3. A pattern of multiyear cycles was described for
maximum temperature values and may be controlled by
factors other than local atmospheric conditions. For

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example, multiyear cycles seem to coincide recently with


periods of greater sunspot activity.
4. Maximum temperature values also exhibited
annual cycles driven by atmospheric conditions, and
each season had cycles of particular intensity.
5. The increase in maximum temperature values during recent decades, considering maximum values for
each multiyear cycle, exhibited a marked linear tendency, which may serve to generate future predictions
and take adequate measures to mitigate and control the
potential impacts of GCC on human activities. Based on
the observed tendency, the increase in temperature from
2010 to 2030 will be of 2uC for the study site.
6. The concentration of chlorides in the studied
concrete structures is not only affected by the typical
seasonal behaviour of climatic variables but also by long
term multiyear cycles and GCC effects such as warming.
7. Any type of damage on concrete infrastructure due
to environmental effects should consider not only short
term seasonal effects but also long term patterns such as
multiannual cycles, which could dictate the rate of loss
of concrete durability. Further information should be
generated and made available to determine which time
scale better serves to explain changes in concrete
durability and predict concrete structure service life
and life cycle.
8. Concrete service life should be defined and
modelled by stages using both short and long term
scales in order to determine which factors and at which
scale have a greater influence on structure durability.

Future work and recommendations


Results from this study have shown that climate effects
on concrete structures may be divided into two components: those which occur between seasons within a
year and due to local atmospheric changes and those
which are due to long term patterns driven by extrinsic
factors characterised by multiyear cycles and GCC
effects such as warming. Until now, the literature on
climate effects on concrete structures had only paid
attention to the first (short term, seasonal effects), and
even in this case, considerable error existed when predicting structure service life. Considering that an
additional pattern of multiyear cycles emerged from
the results, the authors propose the following recommendations for future studies.
1. When trying to predict any service life variable for
concrete structures, both long and short term patterns of
variation should be considered.
2. Analyse if certain variables associated to structure
durability, such as reinforcement corrosion, are strongly
influenced by long term effects, particularly those taking
place due to GCC.
3. Discuss, based on long term patterns of variation,
possible intervention strategies which take advantage of
low impact periods (characterised by low chloride concentrations) to protect concrete structures and increase
their durability.
4. Determine which level of variation in climatic
parameters (seasonal or multiyear) has a greater
contribution to concrete structure durability.
5. Validate the existence of the long term pattern
observed in this study by gathering more climatic data
for other regions and microclimates.

NO

Castro-Borges and Mendoza-Rangel

6. Generate standards which consider the impact of


GCC on infrastructure so that appropriate design,
rehabilitation and prevention strategies are taken into
account and made obligatory.
7. Generate models of concrete infrastructure service
life which take into account climate variation at different temporal scales.

Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge to CONACYT (Projects
Ciencia Basica 57420 and CIAM 54826) for the partially
support of this work and to Centro Metereologico de la
Comision Nacional del Agua (Meteorological Center of
the National Water Commission) for provide the
climatic data. The authors also acknowledge Ing.
Mercedes Balancan for her support in the chemical
and electrochemical test.

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