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23 27 February 2015
// Security Watch
This week, our hard power-centered Security Watch (SW) series explores the United States' new National Security
Strategy (NSS); the additional roles private companies might play in safeguarding Africa's maritime security; the global
terrorism-crime nexus and how to combat it more effectively; the interrelated evolution of China's A2/AD capabilities and
the US' Air-Sea Battle concept; and India's protracted Bodo conflict. Then, in our second, more wide-ranging SW series,
we look at Nelson Mandela's attitude towards violence, particularly as a political strategist; the decline of Coptic activism in
Egypt; the Ukraine crisis as a symptom of greater global multipolarity; Geneva's rise as an important global economic and
diplomatic center; and how the religious credentials of Islamic State leaders compare with those held by senior clerics
across the Middle East.
How have policymakers and other stakeholders reacted to the United States' new National Security Strategy (NSS)? With
mixed sentiments, says Jan Joel Andersson. While some analysts believe the NSS is too broad and filled with platitudes,
others are concerned that it overemphasizes particular issues and policies. More
Lawrence Freedman believes the way Nelson Mandela approached the role of violence in strategy remains instructive.
That's because the former ANC leader understood that waging a violent struggle does not necessarily mean pushing a
conflict to a bloody and undesirable end. More
Are Egypt's Copts backing Pope Tawadros' decision to support the el-Sisi government? Not according Jayson Casper.
That's because their grassroots activism isn't comparable now to what it was at the height of the country's recent political
upheavals. More
How should the international community prevent groups such as Hezbollah from linking up with illicit crime networks for
their own financial gain? Celina Realuyo's answer stresses greater cross-border collaboration among military, intelligence,
and law enforcement agencies. More
Russia's recent defiance of the United States and NATO has convinced some analysts that we now live in a multipolar
world. Sunil Dasgupta, however, isn't so sure. For such a world to exist, India and China must side with Russia in its
confrontation with the West. That's something they remain reluctant to do, at least openly. More
China's A2/AD capabilities and the United States' corresponding Air-Sea Battle concept are powerfully interrelated. Today, Eirik Torsvoll traces
their evolution and how they are about to define the security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region for years to come. More
What geopolitical factors helped transform Geneva into a global economic and diplomatic center? For Nayef Al-Rodhan,
two of them stand out the city's role as a safe haven during the two World Wars, and its ability to provide a needed
'coordination point' during the Cold War. More
Why does the State of Assam in India continue to experience outbursts of Bodo separatist violence? Anshuman Behera's
answer points to New Delhi's decision to privilege military force over meaningful dialogue with the region's militant groups.
More
The so-called Islamic State's radical interpretation of Islam enjoys little support among leading Sunni and Salafist
preachers, observe Erwin van Veen and Iba Abdo. At the same time, you shouldn't expect these religious leaders to help
stem the tide of disaffected Muslims making their way to IS strongholds in Iraq and Syria. More
// Blog
Why should the United States offer additional support to Jordan's battle against the so-called Islamic State? Justin Graf
points to Amman's decisive response to the execution of Moaz al-Kasasbeh, which featured a level of direct military
engagement as yet unseen from Washington's other Arab allies. More
Eduardo Villas Boas' ability to cement Brazil's status as a major military power will depend on how he deals with several
obstacles, writes Pablo Scuticchio. They include the country's faltering economy, the armed forces' limited interoperability,
and the pressing need to overhaul the Army's 'defense perimeter'. More
How have NORAD's roles and missions changed since the end of the Cold War? Sara McGuire confirms that the
organization is now primarily concerned with homeland security rather than defense, which tells the American people that
the potential for future terrorist attacks remains high. More
From 1989 to 2014: Young Vladimir Putin and the Irony of Helsinki
26 February 2015
A new Cold War may be emerging between Russia and the West. For Ben Mueller, two historical turning points may be
partially responsible 1) the collapse of the Soviet Union, which shaped Vladimir Putin's foreign policy, and 2) Mikhail
Gorbachev's embracing of the Helsinki principles, which shaped the current European order. More
Can drones learn by doing? What ethical, legal and security problems do we now confront because of the proliferation of
unmanned platforms? These are just two of the questions that we addressed during our recent day-long conference on the
growing use of drones by military and civilian actors.
More
// Video
In this video, three analysts explore the varieties of Islamism that exist in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and
their impact on political developments in the MENA region.
More
In this video, three analysts discuss the possible impact falling oil prices might have on the economies, politics and
security of Iran, Russia and Nigeria. More
In this video, Robert Grenier discusses his book, "88 Days to Kandahar: A CIA Diary," which 1) narrates his experiences
as the CIA's Station Chief in Islamabad (1999-2002), and 2) describes the short Southern Campaign of the first AmericanAfghan war. (The latter led to the toppling of the Taliban, the routing of al-Qaida and more.) More
// Multimedia Content
Here is a selection of this week's additions to the ISN Digital
Library:
Publications More
// Using Technology in Nonviolent Activism against Repression More
// A Broken Region: Evaluating EU Policies in the South Caucasus More
// Defend, Defect, or Desert? The Future of the Afghan Security Forces More
Videos More
// Cyber Risk Wednesday: Breaking the Cyber Information-Sharing Logjam More
/The
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Islamic State: A Video Introduction with Aaron Zelin More
/Crude
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Oil Price Implosion: Causes and Consequences More
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