Anexo1:GuindelAnlisisdeFactibilidadparallevaracabounaEvaluacinde

Impacto

Presentacin

Las evaluaciones de impacto permiten medir los efectos que tiene un programa en sus
beneficiariosconrespectoaindividuosquetienencaractersticassimilaresperoquenoreciben
los beneficios del mismo. Para realizar evaluaciones de impacto de tipo cuantitativo existen
diferentesmtodosestadsticosquesepuedenutilizar.stosrequiereninformacinenalmenos
dosmomentosdeltiemposobredosgruposdeindividuos(beneficiariosynobeneficiarios):antes
de la aplicacin del programa y despus de la misma, en algn momento determinado por las
caractersticas del indicador sujeto a la medicin. Es importante mencionar que no siempre es
indispensablehacerlevantamientosdeencuestas.Estainformacinpuedeobtenersederegistros
administrativos del programa, dependencias y entidades, o de bases de datos de encuestas
existentes realizadas por el programa u otras instituciones, siempre y cuando estos datos
permitanmedirelimpactodelosindicadoresalniveldedesagregacindeseado.

La importancia de la evaluacin de impacto radica en la medicin de los efectos netos del

programa sobre los beneficiarios, cuyos resultados permiten obtener conclusiones importantes
acercadelaeficaciadestepararesolverelproblemaalqueestenfocado.Noobstante,para
queunaevaluacindeimpactoseaviabledeserrealizada,elprogramadebecumplirunaseriede
requisitosdelmonitoreodeinformacinnecesariaparallevarlaacabo.

ElCONEVALrequierequeantesdeplanearlaevaluacindeimpactodeunprogramaseplasme
enundocumentolaexistenciadeestoselementos.Estedocumentodebeserpresentadoporla
dependencia o institucin a cargo del programa y ser analizado por el CONEVAL1. Dicho
documentonodebersobrepasarlasdiezcuartillasconinterlineadosencilloyfuenteTimesNew
Roman tamao 12. A partir del anlisis de este documento se emitir una opinin sobre la
factibilidad de llevar a cabo la evaluacin de impacto, o en su defecto realizar otro tipo de
evaluacin de seguimiento de resultados. Con la finalidad de especificar los componentes que
debe tener el documento de anlisis de factibilidad, se desarroll el Guin para Anlisis de
FactibilidaddelaEvaluacindeImpacto.
1

En caso de que el programa no cuente con personal disponible o capacitado, se sugiere que contrate a un consultor
especializado en evaluacin de impacto para elaborar el anlisis de factibilidad.
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Propsito

Elpresentedocumentoespecificaloscontenidosmnimosconlosquedebecontarelanlisisde
factibilidadpararealizarunaevaluacindeimpacto.Elguinestestructuradoconelpropsito
dequelasdependenciassiganelmismoordendelosapartados.

Estructuradelguin

Elguinpresentalasiguienteestructura:

1. Antecedentesdelprograma
2. Diseodelaintervencin
3. Objetivosdelaevaluacin
4. Informacindisponibleyfuentes
5. Metodologaaplicable
Enlasiguienteseccinsedetallarnloscontenidosdecadaapartado.

Contenidodelguin

Antecedentes del Programa. Una descripcin del surgimiento del programa, el

diagnsticoconsideradoyladefinicindelproblemaquepretendesolucionar.Tambin
se debe describir el tipo de beneficio que el programa otorga y cules han sido sus
variantesalolargodeltiempo.

Diseo de la intervencin. En este apartado se describir el rea de atencin del

programa, la poblacin objetivo, cobertura, mecanismos de focalizacin, beneficiarios
directosytiposdeapoyos.Esnecesarioqueestadescripcinespecifiquesielprograma
tiene un mecanismo de focalizacin o si ste es de acceso universal, el proceso de
seleccindebeneficiarios(porejemplosiexisteunaseleccinaleatoriaconcriteriosde
elegibilidad o simplemente una promocin aleatorizada con inscripcin voluntaria y
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elegibilidaduniversal),eltipodeapoyoqueesotorgadoastos,esdecir,siesatravs
de donaciones, prstamos, entrega de bienes de capital, etc., y por ltimo, si existe
informacinsistematizadayactualizadaquepermitaconocerquinesrecibenlosapoyos
delprograma(padrndebeneficiarios),culessonlascaractersticassocioeconmicas
delapoblacinincluidaenelpadrndebeneficiariosyconqufrecuenciaselevantala
informacin.

Objetivosdelaevaluacin.Enesteapartadoserealizarprimerounadescripcindelas
razonespararealizarlaevaluacindeimpacto.Asimismo,sedebesealarculessonlos
objetivos generales y especficos de la evaluacin. Los objetivos generales deben
presentarlosinterrogantesquesequiererespondersobrelosimpactosdelprogramaen
unconjuntodeindicadoresdadalanaturalezadelosbeneficiosqueseotorgan.Porsu
parte, los objetivos especficos deben presentar los indicadores para cada uno de los
impactosquesepretendermedirenunconjuntoespecficodelapoblacinbeneficiada,
dadoslosbeneficiosespecficosqueselesotorga.

Informacin disponible y fuentes. En este apartado se deber describir el tipo de

informacin con la que se cuenta sobre beneficiarios y no beneficiarios antes de la
implementacin del programa, durante la aplicacin del programa o al finalizar. Esta
informacin es fundamental para llevar a cabo la evaluacin. Por una parte, la
informacinquesetieneantesdelaimplementacindelprogramapermiteconocerla
situacininicialdelossujetosysuscaractersticas,lascualesdebensersimilaresentre
beneficiariosyno beneficiarios,demanera queseaposibletenergruposcomparables.
Porotraparte,contarconinformacindeesasmismascaractersticasduranteoalfinal
de la implementacin del programa permite medir el impacto. Por lo anterior, es
necesariomencionarsielprogramarecabaestainformacinconencuestaspropiasyde
qutiposon(transversalesolongitudinales)osiesposibletenerinformacindeotras
fuentesquepuedanserempleadasparatalefecto.Enlamedidaquesecuenteconestos
datosseestarenlaposibilidaddeaplicardiferentestcnicasdeevaluacinparamedir
elimpactodelprogramaenlosbeneficiarios.

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Metodologaaplicable.Enesteapartadosedebermencionarelmtodomsfactible
para la construccin del contrafactual. Los mtodos se pueden dividir en dos grupos:
experimentalycuasiexperimental.2
Experimental. Este mtodo construye directamente el contrafactual a travs de la
creacin de grupos de tratamiento y control elegidos de manera aleatoria de entre la
poblacinelegibleparaparticiparenunprograma.Estetipodemtodoeselbenchmark
delosmtodosdeevaluacindeimpacto.
Cuasi experimental. Este mtodo construye de manera indirecta el contrafactual
cuandoestenosehaconstruidodemaneraexperimental,atravsde:

Experimentos Naturales. Este tipo de mtodo busca encontrar grupos de

comparacin que posean las propiedades de un grupo de control de un
experimento social. Estos experimentos surgen de cambios institucionales,
legales, sociales o naturales exgenos que implican la aplicacin de una
intervencinaungrupoynoaotro.

Mtodos de comparaciones apareadas (Matching methods). Este mtodo es de

utilidad cuando no se cuenta con un grupo de control. En ste se aparea
participantes y no participantes de un programa con las mismas caractersticas
observables.Unsupuestobsicoesqueno haysesgo deseleccinporfactores
noobservables.

Mtodosinstrumentales.Elmtododevariablesinstrumentalestrataderesolver
el problema de sesgo de seleccin a travs de tcnicas economtricas que
limpianlacorrelacinqueexisteentrelavariabledetratamientoyeltrminode
errorenunaregresin.Elestimadorqueseobtieneesdecarcterlocal,esdecir,
que calcula el efecto solo para aquellos que cambian su conducta con el
instrumento.

Blundell, R and Costa Dias, Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics. The Institute for
Fiscal Studies, Department of Economics, UCL cemmap working paper CWP10/02
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Regresin discontinua. Este mtodo utiliza la discontinuidad en la regla de

asignacindeltratamientoparaevaluarelimpacto.Sinembargoesteestimador
soloeslocal,esdecir,quemideelimpactodelosindividuosqueseencuentran
enlosalrededoresdelalneadecortedelaregladeasignacindeltratamiento.

DiferenciasenDiferencias.Estemtodoutilizadatosdeencuestaslongitudinales
y permite comparar el cambio en la variable de inters en el grupo de
tratamiento con el cambio en el grupo de control. El mtodo supone que las
tendenciasdelavariabledeinterssonparecidasparaambosgruposyrequiere
de 3 puntos en el tiempo (dos mediciones preintervencin y una post
intervencin).

Bibliografatemtica

Dentrodelaspolticasdedesarrollosocialexistendiversasintervencionesqueimpactanenel
bienestaratravsprogramasfocalizadosenaspectosmuydiversos.Porelloyconelobjetivode
mostrarlohechootrospases,sepresentalasiguienteseleccindebibliografadeevaluacin
de polticas pblicas separada de manera temtica. El objetivo de esta lista es que sirva a las
unidades de evaluacin de los programas como referencia para analizar la factibilidad de
realizarevaluacionesdeimpactodesusprogramas.

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Ahorro

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Bibliografaclave

Dentro de los diferentes mtodos de evaluacin existe una vasta bibliografa que desarrolla
cadaunadestos.Sinserexhaustiva,lalistaqueofreceelBancoMundialofreceysepresentaa
continuacincontienelosprincipalesautoresenstas.

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Banerjee,Abhijitandothers.MakingAidWork.BostonReview,2006

Behrman,JereR.,JohnHoddinott,JohnA.MaluccioandAryehD.Stein.WhatDeterminesAdult
Cognitive Skills? Impacts of PreSchooling, Schooling and PostSchooling Experiences in
Guatemala.JournalofEconomicLiterature,2006

Behrman, Jere R., David Ross and Richard Sabot. Improving the Quality Versus Increasing the
QuantityofSchooling:EvidenceforRuralPakistan.PennInstituteforEconomicResearch,2002

Behrman, Jere R., Alexis Murphy, AgnesQuisumbing,Usha Ramakrishnan, and Kathyrn Yount.
What is the Real Impact of Schooling on Age of First Union and Age of First Parenting? New
EvidencefromGuatemala.WorldDevelopmentReport2007,2006

Cameron, A. Colin and Pravin K. Trivedi. Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications.

CambirdgeUniversityPress,2005

Crump, Richard; Hotz, Joseph; Imbens, Guido, and Mitnik, Oscar. Nonparametric Tests for
TreatmentEffectHeterogeneity.NBERTechnicalWorkingPaperNo.0324,2006

Duflo, Esther, Rachel Glennerster, and Michael Kremer. Randomized Evaluations of

InterventionsinSocialScienceDelivery.DevelopmentOutreach,2004

Duflo,Esther.ScalingupandEvaluation.ABCDE,2004.

Duncan Thomas, Kathleen Beegle, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Bondan Sikoki, John Strauss and
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Artculosdemetodologageneral

Angrist,JoshuaandAlanKrueger.EmpiricalStrategiesinLaborEconomics.HandbookofLabor
Economics3(1):12771366,1999

Heckman, James and E.J. Vytlacil. Econometric Evaluation of Social Programs. Handbook of
Econometrics,Volume6,JamesHeckmanandE.Leamer,eds.,Amsterdam:NorthHolland,2006

Heckman, James, R. Lalonde and J. Smith, The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor
MarketPrograms.HandbookofLaborEconomics,Volume3,Ashenfelter,A.andD.Card,eds.,
Amsterdam:ElsevierScience,1999

Imbens, Guido. Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects under Exogeneity: A

Review.ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics86(1):429,2004

Meyer,BruceD.NaturalandQuasiExperimentsinEconomics.JournalofBusinessandEconomic
Statistics13(2):151161,1995

Shadish, Cook, and Campbell. Experimental and QuasiExperimental Designs for Generalized
CausalInference.Boston:HoughtonMifflin,2002

TcnicasExperimentales

Burtless,Gary.TheCaseforRandomizedFieldTrialsinEconomicandPolicyResearch.Journalof
EconomicPerspectives9(2):6384,1995.Availabletoauthorizedusersathttp://www.jstor.org

Coady,David,LiminWang,andXinyiDai.CommunityProgramsandWomen'sParticipationThe
ChineseExperience.PolicyResearchWorkingPaper2622,WorldBank,DevelopmentEconomics
ResearchGroup,WashingtonD.C.,2001

Duflo, Esther & Michael Kremer. Use of Randomization in the Evaluation of Development
Effectiveness in George Pitman, Osvaldo Feinstein and Gregory Ingram (eds.) Evaluating
DevelopmentEffectiveness.NewBrunswick,NJ:TransactionPublishers,2005

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Grossman, Jean Baldwin. Evaluating Social Policies: Principles and U.S. Experience. The World
BankResearchObserver9(2):15980,1994

Heckman, James J. and Jeffrey A. Smith. The Sensitivity of Experimental Impact Estimates:
Evidence from the National JTPA Study. NBER Working Paper 6105 (July), National Bureau of
EconomicResearch,Cambridge,MA.,1997

Heckman, James J., and Edward Vytlacil. PolicyRelevant Treatment Effects. The American
EconomicReview(PapersandProceedings),91(2):107111,2001

Heckman,JamesJ.,andJeffreyA.Smith.AssessingtheCaseforSocialExperiments.Journalof
EconomicPerspectives9(2):85110,1995

Heckman,JamesJ.,HidehikoIchimura,JeffreySmithandPetraE.Todd.CharacterizingSelection
BiasUsingExperimentalData.Econometrica66:101798,1998

Heckman, James J., Jeffrey A. Smith, and Christopher Taber. Accounting for Dropouts in
EvaluationofSocialPrograms.TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,80(1):111,1998

Heckman,JamesJ.,JeffreyA.Smith,andNancyClements.MakingtheMostOutofProgramme
Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts. The
ReviewofEconomicStudies,64:487535,1997

Holland,PaulW.StatisticsandCausalInference.JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation.
81(1):945960,1986

Kremer, Michael. Randomized Evaluations of Educational Programs in Developing Countries:

SomeLessons.AmericanEconomicReview93(2):102106,2003

Moffitt, Robert. The Role of Randomized Field Trials in Social Science Research: A Perspective
from Evaluations of Reforms of Social Welfare Programs mimeo, Institute for Research on
Poverty,2003

Zhu, ShuHong. A Method to obtain a Randomized Control Group where it seems Impossible.
EvaluationReview23(4):36377,1999

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TcnicasNoexperimentalesyCuasiexperimentales

Angrist,JoshuaandAlanKrueger.InstrumentalVariablesandtheSearchforIdentification:From
Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments. Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(4): 6987,
2001

Angrist,JoshuaandVictorLavy.UsingMaimonidesRuletoEstimatetheEffectofClassSizeon
ScholasticAchievement.QuarterlyJournalofEconomics114(2):533575,1999

Angrist, Joshua, Guido Imbens and Donald Rubin. Identification of Causal Effects Using
InstrumentalVariables.JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation91(434):444455,1996

Battistin,ErichandEnricoRettore.TestingforProgrammeEffectsinaRegressionDiscontinuity
DesignwithImperfectCompliance.JournaloftheRoyalStatisticalSociety165:3957,2002

Dehejia,RajeevH.andSadekWahba.CausalEffectsinNonexperimentalStudies:Reevaluating
the Evaluation of Training Programs. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94(448):
10531062,1999

Glazerman,Steven,DanLevyandDavidMyers.NonexperimentalversusExperimentalEstimates
ofEarningsImpacts.TheAnnalsoftheAmericanAcademyofPoliticalandSocialScience589(1):
6393,2003

Heckman, James J. Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the
Impact of Social Programs: The Case of Manpower Training. NBER Working Paper 2861
(February),NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Cambridge,MA.,1989

Heckman, James J., Hidehiko Ichimura, and Petra E. Todd. Matching as an Econometric
Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Program. Review of Economic
Studies,64:605654,1997

Hotz, V. Joseph, Guido Imbens, Julie Mortimer. Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training
Programs Using Past Experiences at Other Locations. Journal of Econometrics 125: 241270,
2005

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Jalan, Jyotsna, and Martin Ravallion. Income Gains to the Poor from Workfare: Estimates for
Argentina'sTrabajarProgram.PolicyResearchWorkingPaper2149,WorldBank,Development
EconomicsResearchGroup,Washington,D.C.,1999

LaLonde, Robert J. Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with

ExperimentalData.AmericanEconomicReview76(4):60420,1986

Michalopoulos, Charles, Howard S. Bloom, and Carolyn J. Hill. Can Propensityscore Methods
Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory WelfaretoWork
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Van der Klaauw, Wilbert. A RegressionDiscontinuity Evaluation of the Effect of Financial Aid
OffersonCollegeEnrollment.C.V.StarrWorkingPaperRR#9710,1997

Evaluacineconmicaintegraldeprogramas

Bourguignon, F., L. Pereira Da Silva, and Nicholas H. Stern. Evaluating the Poverty Impact of
EconomicPolicies:SomeAnalyticalChallenges.Processed.Washington,D.C.:WorldBank,2002

Lise, Jeremy, Seitz, Shannon and Jeffrey Smith. Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the
Evaluation of Social Programs. NBER Working Paper 10283 (February), National Bureau of
EconomicResearch,Cambridge,MA,2004

Heckman, James J. Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel
Lecture.JournalofPoliticalEconomy109(4):673748,2001

Heckman, James J., Lance Lochner, and Christopher Taber. GeneralEquilibrium Treatment
Effects:AStudyofTuitionPolicy.TheAmericanEconomicReview88(2):38186,1998

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06022,2006

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