Contact:

Tom Swiss
(773) 485-9477
January 29, 2015

Ward 43: Smith Run-off Likely

Caroline Vickrey Emerging As Main Challenger
CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Thursday, January 29,
2015 for Alderman of the 43rd Ward with 400 respondents.
Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters.

Michele Smith

133

33.3%

Caroline Vickrey

73

18.3%

Jennifer Jen Kramer

45

11.3%

Jerry Quandt

15

3.8%

134

33.5%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 5.00% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS
Michele Smith is likely facing a runoff. As her opponents ramp up their campaigns, it will get more
difficult for Smith to capture the half of the undecided votes necessary to achieve the required 50% +1.
If Smith is forced into a runoff, Caroline Vickrey, is emerging as her potential rival. A run-off election
could be interesting because Smith is not well liked in the ward because of congestion concerns based
on her support for the residential development of Childrens Memorial. Yet, Smith who is an Emanuel
ally, should have a significant financial advantage with the help of Emanuels Super PAC Chicago
Forward.
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 1


Most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, so there is still much room for further
development in this race. Kramer is within striking distance of Vickrey.


METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections,
likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.

CROSSTABS
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

196
204

49%
51%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus

30
119
97
154

7.5%
29.8%
24.3%
38.5%

Respondents by Zip Code

60610
60614

55
345

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