LANDRICO U. DALIDA JR.

, PhD
Regional Director
Southern Luzon PAGASA Regional Services Division
Climate Change Academy, Legazpi City, Albay
2013

The Intergovernmental Panel on CC

4th Assessment Report 2007 (AR4):

Warming of the Climate System

is UNEQUIVOCAL!

- an increase in the earth's

temperature due to the use of fossil fuels
and certain industrial and agricultural
processes leading to a buildup of greenhouse
gases (principally carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and water
vapor) in the atmosphere, which in turn
causes changes in climate.

"Global Warming," Microsoft Encarta Encyclopedia 2000. 1993-1999

Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.

Greenhouse Effect
- is the rise in temperature that
the Earth experiences because
certain gases in the atmosphere
trap energy
from the Sun .

Incoming Radiation

GHGs are gaseous constituents, both natural and manmade, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation and
has the ability to trap heat at the Earths surface.

What is Global Warming?

Earth has warmed by about 0.7 C over the past
100 years. But why? And how?
Earth could be getting warmer due to natural
causes
World's leading climate scientists think that
warming is due to human activities

Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert

What is Global Warming?

Increase in long term average global

surface temperature

What is Global Warming?

Nine of last ten years from 19962005 except 1996 rank
among the warmest in global instrumental record
obtained since 1861

Warmest year in entire record remains 1998,

which was enhanced by 19971998 El Nio
2nd, 3rd and 4th warmest years were 2002, 2003, and
2004, respectively

Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert

What is Global Warming?

Recent warming due to increase in GHGs
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxides
CFCs and HCFCs
Ozone

Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert

What is Global Warming?

Polar ice core data show that current levels of atmospheric
CO2, CH4 and N2O are way above levels in more than
650,000 years records
Small variations in CO2 concentrations observed between
end of last ice age and start of industrial era around 1750
are attributed to natural processes
Atmospheric CO2 increased by 20 ppm over 8,000 years
prior to industrialization while its concentration has risen by
over 110 ppm since 1750.
Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert

Sources of Carbon Dioxide

Power generation

Land use change

Wastes

Agriculture

Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rodel Lasco, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC experts

Livestock

Deforestation

What is Global Warming?

Without greenhouse effect earths temperature will be
30 deg cooler and is not habitable
Problem is rapid rise of GHGs in atmosphere well above
natural levels due to human-induced emission of CO2,
methane, CFCs and its replacements

What is
Climate Change
refers to a change of climate
attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity in addition to
natural climate

What is Climate Change?

Global warming leads to Climate Change and
enhances Climate Variability
Climate Change is change in long term
global average temperature and rainfall
Climate Variability is change in seasonality
of temperature and rainfall

Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656

Evidence points to an increase in temperature over the last 140 years

The upper graph shows the steady increase of global surface temperature from 1860.

Global annual
surface
temperature
has increased
steadily since
1861

Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
1.5
Anomaly
5 year running mean

Temperature Anomaly (C)

Linear (5 year running mean)

0.5

y = 0.0109x - 0.2423

-0.5

-1

-1.5
51

56

61

66

71

76

81

86

91

96

Year

An increase of 0.6104C from 1951-2006

Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656

01

06

Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

1.5
Anomaly

Temperature Anomaly (C)

0.947774998

5 year running mean

Linear (5 year running mean)

0.5

-0.5

y = 0.0062x - 0.1747
-1

-1.5
51

56

61

66

71

76

81

86

91

96

Year

An increase of 0.3472C from 1951-2006

Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656

Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
1.5

Anomaly
5 year running mean

Temperature Anomaly (C)

Linear (5 year running mean)

0.5

y = 0.0159x - 0.3266

-0.5

-1

-1.5
51

56

61

66

71

76

81

86

91

96

Year

An increase of 0.8904C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures almost 3 times

increase in maximum temperatures
Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656

Average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones per year:

no trends in number of occurrences in the PAR

Frequency of tropical Cyclones

Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running mean

31

y = -0.0104x + 19.755

26
21
16
11
6
1
1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

Year
Number of Tropical Cyclones

5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones)

Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656

Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)

What to expect in the 21st Century?

Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights,
heat waves over most land areas (99% probability)
More frequent rainfall events over most areas
resulting in increased flood, landslide, soil erosion,
mudslide, etc. (90% probability)
Increase in tropical cyclone wind and rainfall
intensities in some areas. (67% probability)

Hot indices (hot days and warm nights)

Significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights.

*Tibig,

LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

Rainfall (wet indices)

TOTAL
RAINFALL

*Tibig,

RAIN DAYS

LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

(Sources: GRID
Arendal/ Pachauri,
2003)

Climate Change

Impacts

With bearing on
economy

Impact on
Agriculture
Increase frequency of weather extremes
(storms/floods/landslide/droughts).
Loss of biodiversity in fragile environments.
Loss of fertile coastal lands caused by rising sea
levels and storm surge.
More unpredictable farming conditions.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Impacts on Agriculture
Food security
o
o

o
o
o

Increase in incidence of diseases in animals and

crops
Availability of food could decline;
Prices will rise as a result;
Employment opportunities may become less;
More people could face hunger and starvation

Impact on Livestock
A temperature rise exceeding about 3.5C could
result in the extinction of 40-70% of the world's
assessed species.
Stunted growth, lesser productivity and reduced
fertility.
Swine and poultry could be exposed to higher
incidences of heat stress, thus influencing
productivity
Increase in disease transmission by faster growth
rates of pathogens in the environment and more
efficient and abundant vectors (such as insects).
Low food quality and easily spoiled in storage.
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Impact on Fisheries
Dramatic change in distribution and
quantities of fish and sea foods.
Coral bleaching on massive scales never seen before
due to warming of sea water associated with El Nio
episodes.
Decreased calcification in corals, mollusks and other
shell-forming organisms (softening of shells).
Trigger algal blooms that cause red tides as well as
fish kills.
Release of methane hydrate in ocean bottoms which
is 56 times more powerful than CO2.
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems

Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees C

could cause
Coral bleaching due to CO2 acidification
Massive coral bleaching in 1998

Could exacerbate water scarcity

Streamflow
Increase average annual runoff and water availability
in some wet areas by 10-40%
Source: photo Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert

Could exacerbate water scarcity

Exacerbates water pollution (thermal, bacterial, organic,

nitrates, organic carbon)
Source: Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert

Could exacerbate water scarcity

Source: Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert

Impact on Fresh Water

Salination of freshwater; water
table/aquifer depletion; increased runoff
and pollution of freshwater sources.
Alter the quantity and quality of available
fresh water and increase the frequency
and duration of floods, droughts, and
heavy precipitation events.
Affect the quality of drinking water and
impact public health.
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Could diminish Forest cover

Temperature increases and change in rainfall could lead to

oShrinking or expansion of forest cover

oMigration to higher elevation
oForest loss due to fires and pests

Sea level rise could damage mangroves,

coastal areas and corals
SEA LEVEL RISE will:

Extend salt water intrusion and affect groundwater

Affect mangroves

Inundate coastal farms

Increase flood risks for settlement areas and
infrastructure

Preserve existing forests and

encourage reforestation

Develop alternative energy source

Slow population growth

Encourage environmental
treaties/laws

More efficient energy use

Necessity for a change in lifestyle

Promote cycling, walking
Take a bus or the mass rail transport
for longer trips

Leave the car at home

Use energy efficient electrical fixtures
Turn offs lights, aircons, electric fans, televisions
and computers when these are not in use

CLIMATE CHANGE

IN THE

PHILIPPINES

http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The climate trends were analyzed using available observed data from 1951 to 2009 with the average
for the period of 1971 2000 as the reference value.

The key findings are summarized as follows:

There has been an increase in annual mean temperature by 0.57 C;

In terms of maximum and minimum temperatures, the increases have been

0.35 C and 0.94 C;

Tropical cyclone (within PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical

cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year , there still is no indication of
increase in the frequency, but with a very slight increase in the number of
tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and
above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El Nino years; and

Extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily rainfall indicate

significant increase in number of hot days but decrease of cool nights, and
those of rainfall (extreme rainfall intensity and frequency) are not clear, both
in magnitude (by what amounts) and direction (whether increasing or
decreasing), with very little spatial coherence.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
For future climates in 2020 and 2050
The key findings are:

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the

relatively warmer summer months;
Annual mean temperatures (average of maximum and
minimum temperatures) in all areas in the country are expected to
rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in
2050;

Seasonal rainfall change:

reduction in rainfall in most provinces during the summer
season (MAM) making the usually dry season drier ,
while rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzon and
Visayas during the southwest monsoon (JJA) and the SON
seasons, making these seasons still wetter,

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The northeast monsoon (DJF) season rainfall is projected to
increase, particularly for areas characterized by Type II climate
with potential for flooding enhanced;
During the southwest monsoon season (JJA), larger increases
in rainfall is expected in provinces in Luzon (0.9% to 63%) and
Visayas (2% to 22%) but generally decreasing trends in most of the
provinces in Mindanao in 2050;
However, projections for extreme events in 2020 and 2050
show that hot temperatures (indicated by the number of days with
maximum temperature exceeding 35 C) will continue to become
more frequent, number of dry days (days with less than 2.5mm of
rain) will increase in all parts of the country and heavy daily
rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will also continue to increase in
number in Luzon and Visayas.

How the climate change scenarios were developed?

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models
(UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating
the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from
simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as
CMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They
also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically
estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers
wide. It should be noted that CMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each
grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid.

Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such
as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES
(Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These mission scenarios cover a
range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimes
referred to as emission pathways .

Table 1 presents the four different storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) as defined in the IPCC
SRES.
Storyline

Description

A1

Very rapid economic growth; population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and
economic
convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate. Subdivisions: A1FI
-reliance on
fossil fuels; A1T -reliance on non-fossil fuels; A1B -a balance across all fuel
sources

A2

Self-reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing

population; economic
growth on regional scales

B1

Clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions to

economic,
social and environmental sustainability; improved equity; populations peaks
mid-century

B2

Local solutions to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower

rate than in
Table1: The four storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which defines plausible emission
A2; less rapid technological change than in B1 and A1
scenarios.

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of

greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which
then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or
cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the
future climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its Plausible ranges
A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity
to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in
international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the
National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
(in Germany), the
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological
Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others.
These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new
versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in
models.

The climate classification in the Philippines

- REGION I
- REGION II
- REGION III
- REGION IV-A
- REGION IV-B
- REGION V
- REGION VI
- REGION VII
- REGION VIII
- REGION IX
- REGION X
- REGION XI
- REGION XII
- REGION XIII
- ARMM
- CAR
- NCR

Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in Region 1

The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme
events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in Region 1
are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively.
To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020
and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values (presented in
each of the tables).

Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in Region 2

The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of
extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in
Region 2 are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively.
To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in
2020 and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values
(presented in each of the tables).

Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in CAR

The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in
2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in CAR are presented in Table a,
Table b and Table c, respectively.
To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020 and 2050
in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values (presented in each of the tables).

CONTACT US

Legaspi website - prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/

Legaspi Stn (052)-820-6126 / 4814471/

4814454 / 4355702

Voice Server : 433-ULAN (433-8526)

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http://202.90.128.12/predict/stations.php

Weather Forecasting Center (Manila) - 927-1541;

926-4259; 928-2031; 926-4258; 926-7695
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)