Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
4.500.000
2008-2010: 2.65% p.a.
4.000.000
3.500.000
3.000.000
2.500.000
2.000.000
Source: Eurostat LFS. Narrow definition: 2000-2010 ISCO-88 groups 213, 312: Computing professionals and Computer
associate professionals. Break in series 2011: ISCO-08 groups 25 ICT professionals, 35 Information and communications
technicians.
Growing e-skills demand and decreasing supply is likely to even further increase the e-skills gap
until 2015 and beyond
However, interest in pursuing ICT careers seems to be diminishing among younger generations. The
number of computer science graduates was growing in the past, but has been in continuous decline
in Europe since 2005. Even more, the speed of decline is what makes the situation rather dramatic.
The effect of the decrease in the number of entrants to the ICT workforce is intensified in Europe by
an increasing number of exits as ICT practitioners leave the workforce. We can calculate retirement
figures of ICT practitioners with high levels of certainty.
Together with the decline in ICT graduates figures it is likely that e-skills excess demand will
increase rather significantly when the current economic crisis comes to an end. The bottom line is:
Europe is not producing sufficient numbers of ICT graduates to satisfy the demand.
Already today, demand for ICT workers is outstripping the supply. The results of a representative
empirica survey of CIOs and HR managers in eight European countries in 2012 show that the excess
demand for e-skills, i.e. ICT professionals and practitioners, extrapolated to the whole of Europe (EU27) can be estimated at around 255.000 in 2012. This is the number given by CIOs and HR managers
in European organisations for the number of vacancies in ICT-related occupations.
Forecasts until 2015 show an increasing shortage of e-skills and a huge potential for sustainable
ICT job creation in Europe
Based on several scenario-based forecasts empirica estimated the likely future development in eskills demand and supply in Europe for the European Commission. In a Cautious Growth scenario
the e-skills excess demand or shortage amounts to 372.000 in 2015 compared to 255.000 at
present. In a more optimistic Return to Confidence scenario the shortage, i.e. the theoretical
number of ICT vacancies amounts to 864.000 in 2015.
8.500.000
8.500.000
8.000.000
8.000.000
7.500.000
Extrapolation 2.65%
growth
Synthesis: Cautious
Growth
7.000.000
Extrapolation 2.65%
growth
7.500.000
Synthesis: Cautious
Growth
7.000.000
Synthesis: Return to
Confidence
Synthesis: Return to
Confidence
6.500.000
6.500.000
6.000.000
6.000.000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
864.000
800.000
700.000
676.000
610.000
600.000
500.000
487.000
372.000
400.000
300.000
363.000
255.000
205.000
220.000
259.000
200.000
254.000
199.000
173.000
100.000
0
2011
2012
Return to Confidence Vacancies Total
2013
2014
2015
Cautious Growth Vacancies Total
These figures should be seen as a (theoretical) figure describing the demand potential for new ICT
jobs which under the above assumptions could theoretically and additionally be created in
Europe and which the labour market would be able to absorb.
The forecasts reflect rather realistic possible futures since they are based on realistic assumptions.
The Cautious Growth features a rather flat GDP growth of 0.9% to 2015 and an ICT spending
growth of 2.1% annually. Return to confidence features a slow return to GDP growth in the area of
1.3% until 2015 and a return to moderately optimistic ICT investment growth rates of 2.9. These are
rather conservative estimates given the fact that GDP growth over the last decade ranged from 1.5%
to 3.3% with only one negative exception with -4.3% in 2009.
As a bottom line we can therefore conclude that there is a huge potential for sustainable job creation
in Europe with an additional 372.000 to 864.000 ICT jobs which are achievable by 2015.
Need for European and national actions to achieve and implement projected ICT job creation
potential
In order for Europe to make this happen and reap the benefits it needs to set in gear European,
national Member State and key stakeholder actions and activities which bear the potential to create
the above numbers of qualified ICT professionals to close the skills gap and put Europes industry in a
position to increase its competitiveness and job creation potential.
It is recommended to target actions towards firstly, increasing the university output of ICT graduates,
secondly, making more intensive use of further training individuals through industry-based training
and certification activities to increase the number of e-skilled workers and thirdly, fostering mobility
within Europe and immigration from outside Europe to close gaps in countries with e-skills excess
demand with ICT professionals from countries with an e-skills oversupply.
Actions which are likely to achieve short-term results are those intensifying the use of industry-based
training and certification, followed by those addressing mobility and immigration issues and finally
actions addressed to the tertiary and vocational education system.
Failure to do this will result in a situation where European industry will not be able to start or at least
have to terminate or postpone important software investments or ICT projects thereby running the
danger of losing competitiveness and innovation capabilities and Europe continuing with not reaping
job creation potentials for ICT jobs.
It is high time for action now.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
12.000
71.000
50.000
430.000
277.000
138.000
191.000
163.000
163.000
242.000
131.000
133.000
135.000
146.000
153.000
157.000
162.000
167.000
171.000
177.000
143.000
204.000
185.000
576.000
430.000
295.000
353.000
330.000
334.000
419.000
ICT workforce entrants from tertiary and secondary/vocational education in ICT in Europe 2002 2010 3
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
91.600
103.300
113.600
123.100
125.000
118.900
119.800
113.900
113.300
VET
34.500
22.600
95.500
75.100
62.100
49.800
60.600
62.300
46.700
Total
126.100
125.900
209.000
198.200
187.100
168.700
180.400
176.200
160.000
Tertiary
Secondary /
2011
:
:
EU-27 calibrated delta year on year of workforce according to ISCO-88 narrow definition: 2000-2010 ISCO-88 groups
213, 312: Computing professionals and Computer associate professionals. Break in series 2011: ISCO-08 groups 25
ICT professionals, 35 Information and communications technicians. Calibration assumes a stable relationship of our
broad definition (6.67m 2011) and the core definition (4.29m 2011) of 1.55
Based on the assumption that 2.66% of workforce retire per year in this period
The first figure represents a count of first degrees in ISCED 5A and first qualifications in 5B. The number of students
entering the labour force in a given year does not equal but is approximated by this number of graduates, as many will
go on to second or further degrees (master, PhD). However, also counting second degrees would mean that every
student is counted more than once, even if in different years. By counting only first degrees/qualifications, every
graduate will be counted only once (except the supposedly very rare cases of doing both a 5A and 5B degree), even if
labour market entry may be at a later point in time. However, there may be an issue of double counting with initial
vocational degrees (ISCED 3 and 4, the second figure), to which individual learners may later add an ISCED level 5
degree