Cuba Embargo Affirmative - JDI 2013 - For Merge

TWR CUBA EMBARGO AFF WAVE 1
Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

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FYI Laws
Amnesty International 9, THE US EMBARGO AGAINST CUBA:
ITS IMPACT ON
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RIGHTS,
http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/AMR25/007/2009/en/51469f8b-73f8-47a2-a5bd-f839adf50488/
amr250072009eng.pdf, ACC. 6-1-2013, JT//JEDI
The USA imposed the first economic sanctions against Cuba in 1960 by completely
stopping sugar cane imports from Cuba. This was in response to Cubas
nationalization of foreign property and businesses, the majority owned by US
nationals.9 Since then, the US government has consolidated and extended the
scope of the sanctions against Cuba. The original trade embargo has broadened into
a more comprehensive set of economic, financial and commercial sanctions which
rest principally on the following statutes and regulations:
_ Trading With the Enemy Act of 1917, section 5(b);
_ Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, section 620(a);
_ Cuba Assets Control Regulations of 1963;
_ Cuban Democracy Act of 1992, also known as the Torricelli Act;
_ Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (Libertad) Act of 1996, (Helms-Burton
Act);
_ The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000.
Johnson, et al, Sept. 16, 10, Andy Johnson, Director, National Security Program, Kyle
Spector, Policy Advisor, National Security Program, and Kristina Lilac, National Security Program, End
the Embargo of Cuba, Third Way, ACC. 6-1-2013,
http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdf,
JT//JEDI
The Cuban embargo in effect today was established pursuant to several laws: the
1917 Trading with the Enemy Act, the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act, the 1963 Cuban
Assets Controls Regulations, the 1992 Cuban Democracy Act (Torricelli Act), and the
1996 Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (Libertad) Act (Helms-Burton Act).
Collectively, these statutes serve to restrict trade and travel between the US and
Cuba and place numerous economic sanctions on Cuba as well as countries that do
business with Cuba. The 2000 Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act
relaxed pieces of the embargo pertaining to agricultural goods and medicine, but all
trade between the US and Cuba remains strictly regulated.

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AFF.

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SAMPLE 1AC
OBSERVATION ONE: THE STATUS QUO
The federal government has no interest in lifting the embargo
Joel Brinkley, 12/18/12, Cuba embargo isn't working but isn't going away,
Politico, ACC. 6-1-2013,
http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/cuba-embargo-isnt-working-but-isnt-going-away-85281.html ,
JT//JEDI
But for so many people in Washington, Cuba doesnt matter any more
now, said Ted Piccone, deputy director for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution and a former
National Security Council official. Theres no political incentive to change the
policy even though the arguments for changing it are rife . Despite ample
provocation, the U.S. doesnt impose similar embargoes on other authoritarian states.
The U.S. will keep the embargo as long as a Castro is in power

Ron Smith, Dec. 6, 12, Cuba trade holds promise for U.S. agricultural exports,
Texas A&M economist says, Southwest Farm Press,

http://southwestfarmpress.com/markets/cuba-trade-holds-promise-us-agriculturalexports-texas-am-economist-says, ACC. 6-13-13, JT//JEDI
The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000, created
exceptions, Rosson said. The act permits exports of food, medicines and some
chemicals into Cuba although the embargo remains in place for most trade.
Also banned are imports from Cuba, including Cuban cigars. U.S. banking
with Cuba is prohibited as is tourism and spending money in Cuba. Reforms
do allow exporters to travel to Cuba. The United States is stringent about the
embargo, Rosson said. And that embargo is likely to remain in place, he
added, as long as a Castro is in power.

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SAMPLE 1AC
PLAN: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL

REMOVE ITS ECONOMIC EMBARGO AGAINST CUBA

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SAMPLE 1AC
OBSERVATION TWO: SOLVENCY
Current democracy before engagement requirements fail. We
should scrap the embargo in favor of economic engagement
The Tampa Tribune, Feb. 28, 13, Having more influence on Cuba's transition,
http://tbo.com/list/news-opinion-editorials/having-more-influence-on-cubas-transition-645282, ACC. 61-2013, JT//JEDI
The United States is wrong to base its policy on the disappearance of the
Castros and the heaven-sent appearance of free and fair elections,
opposition parties and an independent press before considering Cuba a nation
we can deal with.
These policies are unrealistic and at odds with their own goal of a freer
Cuba. Economic engagement , increased cultural exchanges and more
liberal travel requirements may indeed be inconsistent with the trade
embargo and the failed policy of victory through isolation, but they might
just work.
Cuba will say yes to the plan

Simon Tisdall, March 5, 13, "Death of Hugo Chvez brings chance of fresh start
for US and Latin America," ACC. 6-6-2013, JT//JEDI
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/05/hugo-chavez-dead-us-latin-america/print,
JT//JEDI
"For the last two decades, US domestic politics have too often driven
Washington's Latin America agenda whether on issues of trade, immigration,
drugs, guns or that perennial political albatross, Cuba, long driven by the
supposedly crucial 'Cuban vote' in Florida," she said. Obama could change this
dynamic if he tried and one way to do it would be to unpick the Cuban problem,
which continues to colour the way Latin Americans view Washington.
"Having won nearly half of the Cuban American vote in Florida in 2012, a gain of 15
percentage points over 2008, Obama can move quickly on Cuba. If he were to do
so, he would find a cautious but willing partner in Ral Castro , who needs
rapprochement with Washington to advance his own reform agenda ,"
Sweig said.
Lifting the embargo engages Cuba as a trust-building measure

that fosters cooperation
JT//JEDI

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Peter Hakim, President of the Inter-American Dialogue, has rightly argued that a
democratic society in Cuba should be the objective of U.S. engagement,
not a precondition.11 Vietnam and China both fall under the rule of communist
leadership, yet the US has taken steps to establish formal diplomatic relations and
open trade with both countries. Cuba should not continue to be the exception.
Others have argued that US-Cuba cooperation on issues such as counternarcotics efforts could benefit both countries and initiate trust-building
among the two countries.
Policymakers on both sides of the aisle can agree that the embargo has
failed to meet its stated purpose of bringing change to Cubas communist
government, making a change in course a necessary next step. Lifting the
antiquated embargo would help to move Cuba into the 21st century,
removing the barriers currently preventing the US from engaging Cuba
and presenting the US with an opportunity to bring about change in Cuba
through economic and diplomatic channels. By opening Cuba, the US could
finally achieve the change it has been seeking for nearly fifty years.

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SAMPLE 1AC
Most of Cubas problems stem from the embargo trade will
improve conditions even if the regime still exists
Franks, South American correspondent for Reuters, 2012, (Jeff, Cuba says
ending US embargo would help both countries, September 20, Online:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/20/us-cuba-usa-embargoidUSBRE88J15G20120920)
Both the United States and Cuba would benefit if Washington would lift its
longstanding trade embargo against the island, but U.S. President Barack
Obama has toughened the sanctions since taking office in 2009, a top
Cuban official said on Thursday. The embargo, fully in place since 1962, has done
$108 billion in damage to the Cuba economy, but also has violated the
constitutional rights of Americans and made a market of 11 million people off
limits to U.S. companies, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez told reporters. "The
blockade is, without doubt, the principal cause of the economic problems
of our country and the essential obstacle for (our) development," he said,
using Cuba's term for the embargo. "The blockade provokes suffering,
shortages, difficulties that reach each Cuban family, each Cuban child,"
Rodriguez said. He spoke at a press conference that Cuba stages each year ahead
of what has become an annual vote in the United Nations on a resolution
condemning the embargo. The vote is expected to take place next month. Last
year, 186 countries voted for the resolution, while only the United States and Israel
supported the embargo, Rodriguez said. Lifting the embargo would improve
the image of the United States around the world, he said, adding that it would
also end what he called a "massive, flagrant and systematic violation of
human rights."
Repealing Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions shifts

U.S. policy from isolation to engagement. The plan emboldens
Cuban reform and generates flexibility for U.S. policy
Cuba Study Group, Feb. 13, Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S.
Policy Toward Cuba, accessed 6-24-2013,
http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43aa2f-ef7794831032, JT//JEDI
Over time, U.S. policies toward Communist countries with poor human rights
records and histories of adversarial relationssuch as China and Vietnamhave
evolved toward diplomatic normalization and economic engagement. Policymakers
in both parties have rightly judged that engagement , rather than isolation,
better serves U.S. national interests and lends greater credibility to calls
for political and economic reform.
The Cuba Study Group believes the most effective way to break the deadlock
of all-or-nothing conditionality and remedy the ineffectiveness of
current U.S. policy is by de-codifying the embargo against Cuba through

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the repeal of Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions that limit the
Executive Branchs authority over Cuban policy.xviii
Repealing Helm-Burton and related statutory provisions would shift the
primary focus of U.S. Cuba policy away from the regime and toward
empowering Cuban people. It would also enhance the leverage of the U nited
States to promote a multilateral approach toward Cuba, as well as embolden
reformers, democracy advocates and private entrepreneurs inside the
island to press their government for greater change.
De-codifying the embargo would allow the Executive Branch the flexibility to use the
entire range of foreign policy tools at its disposaldiplomatic, economic, political,
legal and culturalto incentivize change in Cuba. The President would be free
to adopt more efficient, targeted policies necessary for pressuring the
Cuban leadership to respect human rights and implement political
reforms, while simultaneously empowering all other sectors of society to
pursue their economic wellbeing and become the authors of their own
futures.xix Repealing Helms-Burton would also free civil society development and
assistance programs to be implemented outside of a contentious sanctions
framework.

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INHERENCY
No movement on the embargo nowWont happen in Obamas
second term
Williams, Senior International Affairs writer, 12
Carol J., Widely condemned U.S. policy on Cuba unlikely to change soon
(Nov/16/2012)
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/16/world/la-fg-wn-us-cuba-embargo20121115 /// JMR
Washington and Havana have taken baby steps over the last four years to
end some of the more destructive elements of their relationship, like a U.S.
prohibition against Cuban Americans' visiting their homeland more than once every
three years and Cuba's demand that citizens get exit visas to go abroad. But this
week's overwhelming international censure of the U.S. embargo against
Cuba -- a 188-3 vote of condemnation by the U.N. General Assembly -- was
a sobering reminder of how little has changed between the Cold War
adversaries despite President Obama's 2008 campaign vow to end half a
century of ideological standoff. Foreign policy analysts see possibilities that
Obama may have more room to maneuver in a second term. Opportunities for
improving U.S.-Cuba relations have been plentiful, and routinely
squandered, since the Castros and their bearded guerrilla partisans drove out
dictator Fulgencio Batista on New Year's 1959. The revolution's embrace of Stalinist
ideology led to massive property confiscations, and the Eisenhower administration
slapped on a first version of the enduring trade embargo in October 1960. Under
President Carter, envoys secretly sought to reconcile Cubans with their powerful
northern neighbors, only to be rebuffed by the 1980 Mariel boatlift that carried
125,000 would-be emigres, prisoners and mental patients to U.S. shores. A political
overture by President Clinton was snuffed out in 1996, when Cuban defense forces
shot down two planes in international airspace that had been searching for Cuban
rafters. The latest provocation to derail reconciliation has been the detention of Alan
Gross, a U.S. government emissary caught installing high-tech communications
equipment on the island. U.S. officials cast Gross' work as humanitarian relief; the
Cuban government has accused him of violating its sovereignty "I think it is
probably unlikely that any significant change can occur as long as the Cubans
continue to have Alan Gross in jail, and the Cuban regime probably knows that,"
said Ian Vasquez, Cuba policy expert at the Cato Institute in Washington. "The
regime says it wants to end the blockade, but every time there has been a U.S.
administration that would move toward normalizing relations, they do
something that makes it politically difficult to move in that direction." Andy
Gomez, senior fellow at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the
University of Miami, said the community in South Florida has applauded Obama's
easing of family travel and academic exchanges with the island. He doesn't see
prospects for improvement much beyond that unless and until the Castros are gone.
Even then, Gomez said, it will take years for Cubans to break the state stranglehold
on the economy and acquire respect for civil and human rights. "We've learned that
we can't export American values and attitudes to countries that don't have the
institutions to support them, and Cuba doesn't," Gomez said. Obama's moves to lift

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limits on emigre visits and remittances to Cuban relatives have been widely
applauded on both sides of the Florida Strait. Those changes have built a stronger
sense of community between the two nations and helped Cubans open small private
restaurants, shops and services, said Philip Peters, vice president of the Lexington
Institute think tank and founder of the Cuban Triangle blog on relations among
Havana, Miami and Washington. "More could have been done, certainly, one
example being that there long ago ceased to be any justification for having Cuba on
the list of state sponsors of terror," Peters said. He calls the standoff over Gross,
who has been detained in Cuba since 2009, a self-inflicted wound and missed
opportunity to build on Obama's early advances. "Given the economic
challenges that our country faces domestically and the foreign policy
challenges around the world, some of which are very acute," Peters said,
"there is no way in the world that Cuba is going to be a front-burner issue
for President Obama in his second term."
Congress currently will not act on Cuba now

Meghan Litten, AUG. 29, 11, Time to end the embargo with Cuba, DM Online,
University of Mississippi, ACC. 6-14-2013,

http://archive.thedmonline.com/article/time-end-embargo-cuba, JT//JEDI
Opening up trade with Cuba would help heal our current economic
situation. This requires congressional approval to end the economic embargo on
Cuba. Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., presented a report that urged for changes in U.S.
policy. He said, We must recognize the ineffectiveness of our current policy and
deal with the Cuban regime in a way that enhances U.S. interests.
Although I agree with Lugar, I do not believe that we will see any action soon
considering how dysfunctional Congress has been this year.

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INHERENCY
Washington shows no interest in lifting embargo
RT NEWS. 14 Nov. 2012 "Condemned...again: 'Genocidal' US Embargo on Cuba
Slammed by UN for 21st Year - RT News." Condemned...again: 'Genocidal' US
Embargo on Cuba Slammed by UN for 21st Year - RT News. Autonomous Nonprofit
Organization,. Web. 06 July 2013. <http://rt.com/news/cuba-embargo-un-vote635/>.
Cubas Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez addressed the assembly, voicing Cuban
disappointment that despite Obamas pledge to open a new chapter in
Cuban-American relations on assuming office four years ago, no steps had
been taken the lift the crippling embargo. "The reality is that the last four
years have been characterized by the persistent tightening of the
embargo," Cuba has offered to work in tandem with the US in areas such
as the fight against drug trafficking, terrorism and human trafficking.
However, Washington has affirmed that its policy towards Cuba will remain
intact for the time being. But the milestone is sure to remind supporters and detractors alike
that the era of the Castros is nearing its end, biologically if not politically. Raul is already a month
older than Fidel was when a near-fatal illness forced him to step down - temporarily, then permanently
- in 2006. In April, Fidel gave up his final post as head of the Communist Party. "Fidel is out at the age
of 85 - and he was always much healthier than Raul as a young man - and now Raul is 80," said Ann
Louise Bardach, a longtime Cuba expert and author of "Without Fidel" and "Cuba Confidential." She
gave Raul credit for having the courage to push an agenda of economic change since taking over the
presidency, but said he missed a great chance to bring in new leadership at a key Communist Party
summit in April when he selected old-guard revolutionaries Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, 80, and
Ramiro Valdes, 79, as his Nos. 2 and 3. "Their challenge is that they must bring in a younger
generation, but instead Raul picked someone even older than him as his chief deputy," she said. "It
just shows how unconfident they are. They missed an opportunity." On the streets of the capital,
Havana, reactions to the president's round-number birthday were mixed. "I'm not so concerned about
his age because he looks like he's in good health," said Marcelo Delgado, a 72-year-old retiree. "What I
am worried about is that it seems to be taking a long time to bring in the economic changes he is
talking about, and there isn't much time left." Since taking office, Raul has legalized some forms of
self-employment, turned over fallow government land to small-time farmers and promised to trim the
state's bloated payroll by 500,000 workers. He also has pledged to legalize the sale of cars and homes,
end restrictions on Cubans traveling abroad and open up credit to would-be entrepreneurs - though
those proposals remain part of a vague five-year plan and many are still skeptical. "Raul is going to
turn 80, and the others are even older," said Ernesto, a 26-year-old Havana resident, who asked that
he only be identified by his first name for fear he could get into trouble for speaking out about the
country's leaders.
Recent exemptions are mostly symbolic. We need bolder

action
Jake Colvin, July 6, 11, Vice President for Global Trade Issues with the National
Foreign Trade Council, NEW DIRECTION FOR U.S.-CUBA POLICY,
http://www.icosa.co/2011/07/new-direction/, ACC. 6-25-2013, JT//JEDI
For the first time in years, the United States is moving to engage Cuba. In early
April, the Obama Administration announced that it would lift restrictions on
travel and remittances on Cuban Americans, as well as lift restrictions to
allow U.S. companies to provide certain telecommunications services to

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Cuba. President Obama also appears to be pursuing a diplomatic opening with

Cuba.
Congress also tinkered around the edges of U.S.-Cuba policy. Earlier this year,
opponents of the embargo inserted provisions into a spending bill which
made it easier for American farmers and businesses to travel to Cuba to
market and sell agricultural and medical products to Cuba which are
permitted under an exception to U.S. sanctions.
These are encouraging first steps for those who believe that trade, travel and
diplomacy are better ways to advance Americas interests and support the Cuban
people than sanctions and isolation. Yet initial steps have been small and
largely symbolic. Bolder changes are necessary.

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INHERENCY
Congress Has no Plans to cancel Embargo
Gordts, Feb. 2012. Eline. "Cuba Embargo Turns 50." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 07
Web. 05 July 2013.
Washington already had some limited sanctions in place, but Kennedy's decision was the beginning of a comprehensive ban on U.S. trade with the
island that has remained more or less intact ever since.
Little was planned to mark Tuesday's
anniversary, but Cuban-American members of Congress issued a joint

statement vowing to keep the heat on Cuba . Supporters of the policy
acknowledge that many U.S. strategic concerns from the 1960s have been consigned to
the dustbin of history, such as halting the spread of Soviet influence and keeping Fidel
Castro from exporting revolution throughout Latin America. But they say other
justifications remain, such as the confiscation of U.S. property in Cuba and the need
to press for greater political and personal freedoms on the island. "We have a
hemispheric commitment to freedom and democracy and respect for human rights," said
Jose Cardenas, a former National Security Council staffer on Cuba under President George
W. Bush. "I still think that those are worthy aspirations. " With just 90 miles (145
kilometers) of sea between Florida and Cuba, the United States would be a natural No. 1
trade partner and source of tourism. But the embargo chokes off most commerce, and the
threat of stiff fines keeps most Americans from sunbathing in balmy resorts like Cayo
Coco. Cuba is free to trade with other nations, but the U.S. threatens
sanctions against foreign companies that don't abide by its restrictions.
A stark example arrived off the coast of Havana last month: A massive
oil exploration rig built with less than 10 percent U.S. parts to qualify
under the embargo was brought all the way from Singapore at great
expense, while comparable platforms sat idle in U.S. waters just across
the Gulf of Mexico.

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EMBARGO BAD GENERAL

The embargo is a failed relic of the Cold War
CHELSEA A. ZIMMERMAN, Georgetown Law, 10, Rethinking The Cuban Trade
Embargo: An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy,
http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf,
ACC. 6-13-2013, JT//JEDI
While in recent years the U.S. has seen a revival of economic and political
freedom in the rest of the Western Hemisphere, little has changed as a
result of its efforts to promote democracy in Cuba. Critics suggest that the
U.S. policy toward Cuba has become predictable, rhetorical and
ineffectual, with the trade embargo serving as the centerpiece of the
policy since the end of the Cold War.
Hardline embargo supporters are delusional in rejecting

engagement
Arturo Lopez-Levy, 11, lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School
of Intl Studies at the Univ. of Denver, Appease Cuba? What Would Winston
Churchill Say?, Havana Note,
http://thehavananote.com/2011/01/appease_cuba_what_would_winston_churchill_sa
y, ACC. 6-14-2013, JT//JEDI
Only in Miami could Ninoska Perez, a well-known hard-line radio show host,
reject such engagement because Adolf Hitler was able to murder six
million Jews, while apologists found excuses to justify his crimes. It is no
different in Cuba without raising concerns about her mental health. No matter
how repugnant certain of Castros policies might be towards political prisoners or
Cubans living abroad, any comparison with the power, aims and Human Rights
violations of Hitlers Germany or, for that matter, the apartheid regime in South
Africa and its colonial rule over Namibia, is simply nonsense. Unfortunately,
Mrs. Perezs analogies are not marginal among the right wing exiles who
defend the Helms-Burton Act, the legislation that guides current U.S.
policy towards Cuba.
Of course, this is delusional. The Cuban communist political system and command economy might have
prevented economic development of the Cuban people and repressed its civil and political liberties but there is little evidence about
genocidal or expansionist tendencies in Raul Castros government. The U.S. inclusion of Cuba in the terrorist list of the State
department is seen as the world paradigm of political manipulation of a core theme of American foreign policy for domestic political
reasons.
The pro-embargo lobby silences discussion on Cuba policy

Sandra, Guzmn, May 8, 13, Jay-Z and Beyonc's trip to Cuba isn't the
problem, the embargo is, CNN, ACC. 6-14-2013,

http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/07/opinion/guzman-beyonce-jay-z-cuba/index.html,
KDF-JT//JEDI
The few but very influential pro-embargo lobby have put a stranglehold on a
lucid discussion surrounding Cuba. Five decades of failed policy later, our
nation is being held hostage unable to have a cogent discussion on

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anything Cuba-related. The U.S. embargo has not and will not work. Put in
place in 1962 by President John F. Kennedy, the policy is stuck in a time warp
that has nothing to do with modern-day reality. The most enduring embargo in modern day
history is a remnant of a Cold War past when the Soviet Union was the enemy and the world was on the brink of nuclear war . The
thinking was that financial sanctions, which included a ban on travel by
American citizens, would collapse the island economy and force people to
revolt against Fidel Castro. Over the years, these sanctions have been
eased or toughened depending on political winds. In 1992, disgraced New Jersey Rep.
Robert Torricelli was behind one the cruelest acts which banned, among many
things, food and medicine sales to Cuba and prevented Cuban-American families from sending cash
to their relatives. These were tough times and seeing many friends and families suffer because they couldn't visit their elderly
mothers more than once every three years, or being prevented from sending them needed supplies, was very painful. Restrictions
there is still a major ban. Enter Jay Z and Beyonc.

It's 2013 and we need to debate Cuban policy earnestly. Members of
Congress must stop the cowardice around the issue and stop humoring
the delusions of passionate folks stuck in the 1960s for political votes and
favor. The pro-embargo folks are ignoring the policy's epic failure and fail
to recognize that U.S. policy has played into the hands of the Castro
brothers, who have sinisterly used it to make the case to their people that
if Cuba is starving and the island economy can't grow, it's because of this
U.S. policy.
have eased under President Barack Obama but

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EMBARGO = THESE LAWS

The embargo is a collection of failed laws that limits
flexibility of the Executive and stifles Cuban reforms

The U.S. embargo toward Cuba is a collection of prohibitions, restrictions
and sanctions derived from several laws that has been in effect for more
than 50 years. Taken together and compounded with the designation of Cuba as a
state sponsor of terrorism, they result in the most severe set of sanctions and
restrictions applied against any current adversary of the United States. This
collection of sanctions was first codified into law by the Cuban Democracy
Act of 1992 (Torricelli), severely tightened by the Cuban Liberty and
Democratic Solidarity Act of 1996 (Helms-Burton), and modified by the
Trade Sanctions and Reform Act of 2000 (TSRA), thus transferring
almost absolute authority over U.S. policy toward Cuba from the Executive
Branch to the U.S. Congress.
The codification of the U.S. embargo against Cuba has failed to accomplish
its objectives, as stated in Helms-Burton, of causing regime change and
restoring democracy in Cuba. Continuing to ignore this obvious truth is not only
counterproductive to the interests of the United States, but also increasingly
damaging to Cuban civil society, including the more than 400,000 Cubans now
working as licensed private entrepreneurs, because it places the burden of
sanctions squarely on their shoulders to bear.
At a time when Cuba seems headed toward a path of change and reforms,
albeit slower than desired, and a real debate seems to be emerging within
Cubas elite regarding its future, the inflexibility of U.S. policy has the
ironic effect of hurting and delaying the very changes it seeks to produce
by severely limiting Cubas ability to implement major economic reforms
and strengthening the hand of the reactionaries, rather than the
reformers, within the Cuban government.

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DEMOCRACY CONDITIONING BAD/FAILS

***ALSO TO A2 QPQ CP
Economic engagement doubles for diplomacy as a precursor to

political change
David A. Perez, Spring, 10, JD Yale Law School, currently serving as The Legal Advisor to the
State Department, America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S.
State Department, Harvard Latino Law Review, 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, JT//JEDI
Another reason economic reforms are likely to precede political reforms is

that the population seems hungrier to see an economic respite after
decades of austerity. This may also be a result of their belief that the
Cuban regime will try to maintain its monopolistic grip on politics for as
long as possible, even if it loosens its grip on the economy. When Raul
Castro began his version of a "listening tour" around the island he also initiated a
series of debates.
During one of these town hall meetings Ricardo Alarcon, the leader of the National
Assembly as of April 2009, was barraged with questions that focused on the
economy - specifically Cuba's dual-currency system. n59 Although such intimate
private-public participation has been rare on the totalitarian island, once the
window of opportunity was opened, a burst of activity flowed through. Reloading
the diplomatic cannon by encouraging economic reform, rather than
focusing on political reform, would represent a more dynamic approach to
U.S.-Cuban relations.
Economic change is a precursor to political change and should

be the center of our Cuba policy
The United States should recognize that economic change is a precursor to

political change. To that end, the Obama Administration should craft its
Cuba policy to emphasize and encourage economic liberalization, rather
than focusing on political conditions.
(4A) Economic Liberalization Precedes Political Liberalization
American policymakers should adopt another type of Copernican shift: instead of
placing political reforms (i.e., free elections) at the center of our Cuba policy,
the U.S. should make economic reforms the gravitational locus of our
diplomatic efforts. This shift would not lose track of or diminish the
importance of political change, but would simply acknowledge that such
political change necessarily orbits economic change, and not the other
way around. Put differently, changing our point of view does not change our
objectives - it only changes the means by which we pursue our objectives.

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DEMOCRACY CONDITIONING BAD/FAILS

Democratic conditioning undermines political reform

Conditioning our policy of resource denial on sweeping political reforms
strengthens the Cuban state because the scarce resources available in an
authoritarian Cuba have been and will continue to be allocated primarily
based on political priorities, thereby increasing the states relative power
and its ability to control its citizens. History has shown that the negative
effects of such isolation can be long lasting and counterproductive to
change. During the Cold War, U.S. policy toward Eastern Europe was not based on
isolation or resource denial. Indeed, an analysis of these transitions reveals an
extraordinary correlation between the degree of openness toward former
communist countries and the success of their transitions to democracies and
market economies.xi
Requiring democracy before engagement is a dead end. The

inverse is better
Ray Walser, Dec. 21, 12, Ph.D., Heritage Foundation, U.S. Policy for Cuba: Libertad, ACC. 6-12013, http://blog.heritage.org/2012/12/21/u-s-policy-for-cuba-libertad/, JT //JEDI
It is now 2012. The Obama Administration has opened the door for
unrestricted travel by Cuban-Americans, a largely unrestricted remittance flow,
and more liberal travel for educational and cultural groups. Yet official U.S.Cuban
relations remain stalemated because of the Castro regimes refusal to unclench its
fist and take even the first steps toward true liberty.
Absence of political change in Cuba, many argue, is an insufficient reason to
retain the U.S. embargo. Siege warfare against the embargo continues.
Many Americans are on the tenterhooks of conscience, suffering from acute
symptoms of guilt, democracy fatigue, and loss of self-confidence in American
values. Others claim that South Florida CubanAmericans are losing their
political grip. They are quick to assume that more trade, travel, and
investment in Cuba will soften the hearts of Cubas leaders, not just line
their pockets.
Status quo Cuba policy is unsustainable and defers

engagement in favor of coercion
Dickerson 10, Lieutenant Colonel Sergio M. Dickerson, 2010, "United States
Security Strategy Towards Cuba," Strategy Research Project, www.dtic.mil/cgi-

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bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA518053, ACC. 6-11-2013,

JT//JEDI
In the final analysis, U.S. Cuba policy is not sustainable because it has
failed to meet desired national ends: Cuban democracy and human rights.
Prior to 1989, the U.S. could make the argument that the embargo contained
communism and generally marginalized the Castro government. It failed however,
to depose Fidel Castro and democratize the Cuban government. A post Cold War
Cuba no longer poses a threat to the U.S. - communism is contained and Cuba
is still under embargo. Despite a 50-year failure to affect change in Castros
government, our policy with regards to Cuba remains unchanged. We have
foregone diplomatic engagement and chosen coercive economic power as
our only political tool.

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DEMOCRACY CONDITIONING = WAR

The status quo risks military conflict with Cuba

Brandon Amash, Univ. California, San Diego, July 23, 12, EVALUATING THE CUBAN EMBARGO,
Prospect: Journal of International Affairs at USCD, http://prospectjournal.org/2012/07/23/evaluatingthe-cuban-embargo/, ACC. 6-1-13, JT//JEDI
3.3: The current policy may drag the United States into a military conflict with
Cuba. Military conflict may be inevitable in the future if the embargos
explicit goal creating an insurrection in Cuba to overthrow the
government is achieved, and the United States may not be ready to step
in. As Ratliff and Fontaine detail, Americans are not prepared to commit the
military resources [] (Fontaine 57), especially after unpopular wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan. Much like Americas current situation with isolated rogue states
such as Iran and North Korea, Cubas isolation may also lead to war for other
reasons, like the American occupation of Guantanamo Bay. These
consequences are inherently counterproductive for the democratization of
Cuba and the improvement of human rights.

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BIG ADVANTAGE INTERNAL

10 reasons we should lift the embargo
Delia Lloyd, Aug. 24, 10, Ten Reasons to Lift the Cuba Embargo, Politics Daily,
ACC. 6-14-2013,
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/08/24/ten-reasons-to-lift-the-cuba-embargo/,
JT//JEDI
1. It's good economics . It's long been recognized that opening up Cuba to
American investment would be a huge boon to the tourism industry in
both countries. According to the Cuban government, 250,000 Cuban-Americans visited from the United States in 2009,
up from roughly 170,000 the year before, suggesting a pent-up demand. Lifting the embargo would also
be an enormous boon the U.S. agricultural sector. One 2009 study estimated that doing away
with all financing and travel restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba would have boosted 2008 dairy sales to that country
from $13 million to between $39 million and $87 million, increasing U.S. market share from 6 percent to between 18 and 42 percent.
2 . It's good politics .
Supporters of the trade embargo -- like Cuban-American Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) -- have
long argued that easing the restrictions would only reward Castro for the regime's ongoing repression of political dissidents. We
need to keep up the economic pressure on Cuba, so this logic goes, in order to keep pressure on the regime to do something about
there's a long-standing empirical relationship between trade

and democracy. The usual logic put forth to explain this relationship is that trade creates an economically independent and politically
human rights. But
aware middle class, which, in turn, presses for political reform. It's not clear that this argument actually holds up when subjected to close causal
scrutiny (although the reverse does seem to be true -- i.e., democratic reform creates pressure for trade liberalization). Still, it's difficult to disagree with
the proposition that by enabling visiting scholars and religious groups to stay in Cuba for up to two years (as the presidential order would allow) rather
than a matter of weeks (as is currently the case) we'd be helping, not hurting, democracy in Cuba. First, easing the current travel restrictions would allow
for far deeper linkages between non-governmental organizations from both countries, which some see as a powerful mechanism for democratic reform.
Second, because American visitors would be staying on the island longer, scholars and activists alike would gain much better insight into where the
pressure points for democracy actually exist.
3. It's a double standard . Another reason to question the link between the
embargo and human rights is that it's a double standard that flies in the
face of U.S. foreign policy toward other high-profile authoritarian
countries, most notably China. Stephen Colbert once quipped that Cuba is "a
totalitarian, repressive, communist state that -- unlike China -- can't lend us money."
Unless and until the U.S. pursues a consistent policy of sanctions against politically
repressive regimes, the case against Cuba doesn't hold up very well.
4. It's out of date . To argue that U.S.-Cuban policy is an anachronism is putting it
mildly. In an international climate marked by cooperation on issues ranging
from terrorism to global financial crises, holding on to this last vestige of
the Cold War foreign policy no longer makes sense. (Bear in mind that the young people now
entering college were not even alive when Czechoslovakia existed.) Sure, there's still tension between the United States and Russia.
But the recent renegotiation of the START agreement on nuclear proliferation reinforces the notion that the Cold War is no longer the
dominant prism for understanding that bilateral relationship, much less the Cuban-American one.
5. It doesn't work .
Of course, if the embargo were the last outpost of Cold War politics and it produced results, that
might be an argument for continuing it. But scholars and analysts of economic sanctions have repeatedly questioned the efficacy of
economic statecraft against rogue states unless and until there's been regime change. And that's because, as one scholar put it,
"interfering with the market (whether using sanctions, aid, or other government policies) has real economic costs, and we rarely
know enough about how the target economy works or how to manipulate the political incentives of the target government to
achieve our goals."
6. It's counter-productive. Isolating Cuba has been more than ineffective.

It's also provided the Castro brothers with a convenient political
scapegoat for the country's ongoing economic problems, rather than drawing attention
to their own mismanagement. Moreover, in banning the shipment of information-technology products, the United States
has effectively assisted the Cuban government in shutting out information from the outside world, yet another potential catalyst for
democratization.

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7. It's inhumane .
If strategic arguments don't persuade you that it's time to end the embargo, then perhaps
humanitarian arguments will. For as anyone who's traveled to the island knows, there's a decidedly enclave-like feel to those areas
of the economy where capitalism has been allowed to flourish in a limited sense (e.g. tourism) and the rest of the island, which feels
very much like the remnant of an exhausted socialist economic model. When I went there in the 1990s with my sister, I remember
the throngs of men who would cluster outside the tourist haunts. They'd hope to persuade visitors like me to pretend to be their
escort so they could sneak into the fancier hotels and nightclubs, which they could not enter otherwise. Horse -- yes, horse-- was a
common offering on menus back then. That situation has apparently eased in recent years as the government has opened up more
sectors of the economy to ordinary Cubans. But the selective nature of that deregulation has only exacerbated economic
inequalities. Again, one can argue that the problem here is one of poor domestic policy choices, rather than the embargo. But it's
not clear that ordinary Cubans perceive that distinction. Moreover, when you stand in the airport and watch tourists disembark with
bucket-loads
of basic medical supplies, which they promptly hand over to their (native) friends and family, it's hard not to feel that
policy is perpetuating an injustice.
CONTINUES.
U.S.

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BIG ADVANTAGE INTERNAL

8. There's oil there .
Another reason to think that it might be time to reconsider our Cuba policy is this natural
resource. Cuba has begun exploratory drilling in search of oil in its territorial waters, with some reports estimating the island could
In an era where geopolitical

realities may make places like Venezuela and the Middle East less reliable
sources of oil for the United States, we need all the friends we can get,
particularly when they're right next door.
9. It's unpopular . According to the travel-service provider Orbitz Worldwide, 67
percent of Americans favor lifting the travel ban, and 72 percent believe
that expanding travel to Cuba would positively impact the lives of Cubans.
become a major oil producer -- and refiner -- over the next five to 10 years.
Orbitz has collected more than 100,000 signatures in favor of restoring travel to Cuba through its OpenCuba.org drive. And
according to Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), one of the leading proponents of lifting the embargo, if a vote in Congress were taken secretly,
the ban on travel and trade would most likely fall. In other words, the environment to lift sanctions may be ripe politically in a way
that it wasn't even six months ago.
10. It restricts Americans' freedom of movement . Cuba is the only country

in the world where Americans are restricted by their own government
from visiting freely. Yes, that's right. It's easier to go to North Korea (from the
American end of things) than it is to travel to our Caribbean neighbor. In a country
whose "great American novelist" -- that would be Jonathan Franzen -- just published
a national epic titled "Freedom," one need not underscore this irony.

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SOLVENCY LIFTING EMBARGO = ECONOMIC

REFORMS
Lifting the embargo speeds up Cuban transition to free
markets
DAMIEN CAVE, Nov. 19, 12, Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo,
NYT,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easingembargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, ACC. 5-26-2013, JT//JEDI
With Cuba cautiously introducing free-market changes that have legalized

hundreds of thousands of small private businesses over the past two
years, new economic bonds between Cuba and the United States have
formed, creating new challenges, new possibilities and a more complicated
debate over the embargo.
The longstanding logic has been that broad sanctions are necessary to suffocate the
totalitarian government of Fidel and Ral Castro. Now, especially for many
Cubans who had previously stayed on the sidelines in the battle over Cuba
policy, a new argument against the embargo is gaining currency that
the tentative move toward capitalism by the Cuban government could be
sped up with more assistance from Americans.
Broad-based economic engagement will end the regimes

control and reintegrate Cuba into the global system
One might reasonably argue that the success of these piecemeal reforms
would give the regime more breathing space to survive. This is a valid
concern, but is analytically unsound. The regime has survived despite a terrible
twenty-year economic depression that began after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Although it sounds counter-intuitive, economic success will be the
harbinger of structural collapse in Cuba.
For fifty years one system has ruled supreme; but if another system, however
nascent, begins to show that it can meet the needs of the people more effectively,
the prevailing system will begin to erode from the ground up. To an extent, the
United States can influence this process. As the global financial crisis begins to
negatively affect Cuba's state-benefactors (particularly Venezuela), as well as those
private investors willing to enter a closed economy, the Cuban government will
approach the point where only fundamental economic change will
encourage sufficient growth. The United States can help ensure that Cuba
reaches this point by encouraging more travel, rewarding economic
liberalizations, and by bringing the island back into the global financial
system.

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SOLVENCY LIFTING EMBARGO = POLITICAL

REFORMS/DEMOCRACY
The embargo is a wholesale failure that stifles democratic
reform. We should decodify the embargo by repealing HelmsBurton and related statutory provisions in the Torricelli Act and
TSRAIts the best option for reforms
Helms-Burton has failed to advance the cause of freedom and prosperity
for the Cuban people, to encourage free and democratic elections in Cuba,
to secure international sanctions against the Cuban government, or to
advance the national security interests of the United States.1 It provides a
policy framework for U.S. support to the Cuban people in response to the formation
of a transition government in Cuba; yet, the all-or-nothing nature of its
conditions for suspension undermine that very framework by effectively
placing control over changes to embargo sanctions in the hands of the
current Cuban leadership. Simply stated, it is an archaic policy that hinders the
ability of the United States to respond swiftly, intelligently and in a nuanced way to
developments on the island.
Worst of all, the failures of Helms-Burton have more recently produced a tragic
paradox: Policies once designed to promote democratization through
isolation are now stifling civil society, including an emerging class of
private entrepreneurs and democracy advocates whose rise represents
the best hope for a free and open society in Cuba in more than 50 years.
The Cuba Study Group believes that the most effective way to break the
deadlock of all-or-nothing conditionality and remedy the ineffectiveness
of current U.S.-Cuba policy is to de-codify the embargo through the repeal
of Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions in Torricelli and TSRA
that limit the Executive Branchs authority over U.S. foreign policy toward
the Island (hereinafter collectively referred to as Helms-Burton and related
statutory provisions).
De-codifying the embargo would allow the Executive Branch the flexibility
to respond strategically to developments in the Island as they take place;
using the entire range of foreign policy tools at its disposalincluding diplomatic,
economic, legal, political and culturalto advance the cause of human rights
and incentivize changes in Cuba.
Lifting the embargo speeds up democratic reforms

Doug Bandow, senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former special assistant to former US
president Ronald Reagan, Dec. 11, 12, Time to End the Cuba Embargo, National Interest (Online),
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/time-end-cuba-embargo, ACC. 5-26-2013, JT//JEDI

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Lifting sanctions would be a victory not for Fidel Castro, but for the power
of free people to spread liberty. As Griswold argued, commercial
engagement is the best way to encourage more open societies abroad. Of
course, there are no guarantees. But lifting the embargo would have a greater
likelihood of success than continuing a policy which has failed. Some day
the Cuban people will be free. Allowing more contact with Americans likely
would make that day come sooner.

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SOLVENCY LIFTING EMBARGO = POLITICAL

REFORMS/DEMOCRACY
Lifting the embargo is net better than the status quofosters
democratic reform
JT//JEDI
After five decades of failure, the arguments for lifting the embargo are far
more compelling than those in support of leaving the status quo
unchanged. The US should leave the Cold War-era policy in the past and
look to engage Cuba through open trade and formal diplomatic relations,
which could initiate the transition to a more open, cooperative, and
potentially democratic Cuba that policymakers have sought for half a
century.
Shifting to a policy of economic engagement will facilitate

political liberalizationEmpirically proven
However, Washington's policy for the last fifty years has focused almost
exclusively on the political situation (i.e., free and fair elections). This myopic
approach has ignored the possibility of doing an end-run around Castro's
political recalcitrance by simply giving the Cuban people (and
government) an offer they can't refuse: economic success. As long as the
political arena remains the battlefield upon which Washington and Havana
wage their ideological war, there will always be stalemate. Transitions
from other Cold War-era governments demonstrate that economic
liberalization helped facilitate political liberalization. In Poland, the labor
unions flourished before political parties were finally established after the fall of the
Soviet Union; n54 in Russia, mass privatization paved the way for moderate
political freedoms; n55 in Vietnam, the government started to embrace marketbased reforms in the mid to late-1980s; n56 and finally, in China, an unmistakably
capitalist society has emerged, although elections have still not been
held. n57 Cuba will be no different. In early 2009, the Cuban government
approved the largest land distribution since the revolution when it handed out
45,500 land grants to the private sector. n58

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Obama should reverse current policy and end the embargo

fosters reform
Juan Carlos Hidalgo, Dec. 11, 8, project coordinator for Latin America at the
Cato Institutes Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, A Latin American Agenda
for President Obama, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/latin-americanagenda-president-obama?print, ACC. 6-2-2013, JT//JEDI
End the embargo and travel ban on Cuba: Obama promised during the
campaign to allow unlimited travel and remittances from Cuban Americans
to the island. Though stopping short of criticizing the embargo, his limited
proposal did not please Fidel Castro, who called the idea of more U.S. visitors
propaganda for consumerism and the unsustainable way of life behind it. Despite
officially criticizing the embargo as a source of Cubas ills, Castro seems to be well
aware of the danger for the Cuban regime of increasing interaction between
foreigners and nationals.
Obama should be more innovative in his policy approach to Cuba. He should
propose ending the travel ban to Cuba altogether, and lifting the trade
embargo. This would do more for accelerating meaningful reforms in the
island than continuing with a policy that has failed to deliver results for
almost 50 years.

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SOLVENCY LIFTING ALONE = ECONOMIC &

DEMOCRATIC REFORMS
Even if the plan doesnt solve most of the advantages, the act
of lifting the embargo alone advances economic and
democratic reform
JT//JEDI
Former Senator Mel Martinez has argued against lifting the embargo, claiming that
the US needs to support pro-democracy activists in Cuba, not provide the Castro
regime with a resource windfall.15 Florida Rep. Tom Rooney has argued that lifting
the embargo would serve to reward Cubas leadership for its decades-long record of
human rights abuses and allow the abuse to continue due to the absence of
pressure from the US.16 The US has used the embargo as an effort to pressure the
communist leadership for nearly fifty years, yet the status quo remains unchanged.
If a possible downside of lifting the embargo is that the situation will not
change, then the US has nothing to lose by making an effort to normalize
relations with Cuba. By refusing to engage Cuba and make efforts to move
Cuba forward, the US is in a weak position to criticize the Cuban
leadership. Lifting the embargo and normalizing relations would put the US in
a stronger position to bring about change through economic
advancements that could in turn result in domestic demands within Cuba
for greater social and political freedoms.

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SOLVENCY - CUBA REFORMING NOW, NEEDS

ENGAGEMENT
New reforms in Cuba prove the embargo is outdated and
counter-productive
Hanson, et al, Jan. 16, 13, Daniel Hanson is an economics researcher at the American
Enterprise Institute. Dayne Batten is affiliated with the University of North Carolina, Department of
Public Policy. Harrison Ealey is a financial analyst, It's Time For The U.S. To End Its Senseless Embargo
of Cuba, Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/01/16/its-time-for-the-u-s-to-end-itssenseless-embargo-of-cuba/, ACC. 6-1-13, JT//JEDI
For the first time in more than fifty years, Cuban citizens can travel abroad
without permission from their government. The move, part of a broader
reform package being phased in by Raul Castro, underscores the
irrationality of Americas continuation of a five-decade old embargo.
While the embargo has been through several legal iterations in the intervening
years, the general tenor of the U.S. position toward Cuba is a hardline notin-my-backyard approach to communism a la the Monroe Doctrine. The
official position is outdated, hypocritical, and counterproductive.
Cuba us reforming now. Lifting the embargo magnifies that

progress & improves relations with allies
The cost of the embargo to the United States is high in both dollar and
moral terms, but it is higher for the Cuban people, who are cut off from the
supposed champion of liberty in their hemisphere because of an antiquated Cold
War dispute. The progress being made in Cuba could be accelerated with
the help of American charitable relief, business innovation, and tourism.
A perpetual embargo on a developing nation that is moving towards
reform makes little sense, especially when Americas allies are openly
hostile to the embargo. It keeps a broader discussion about smart reform
in Cuba from gaining life, and it makes no economic sense. It is time for
the embargo to go.
Raul Castros reforms represents a total shift away from Statebased control
Ted Piccone, Jan 19, 12, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, Cuba is
Changing, Slowly but Surely, ACC. 6-16-2013,
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2012/01/19-cuba-piccone, JT//JEDI
A closer look, however, reveals something more profound a wholesale
mental shift , outlined clearly by President Raul Castro over the last two
years, that the time has come to move the Cuban people from wholesale
dependence on the state to a new era of individual responsibility and

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citizenship.
The Escobarbarians
This is going to take time. The economic reforms or updating of Cubas Soviet-style economic system, approved last spring at the
Communist Partys first National Congress in 14 years, are just beginning to be enacted. They include an expansion of licenses for
private enterprise (over 350,000 have been granted), opening more idle land to farmers and cooperatives, allowing businesses to
hire employees, empowering people to buy and sell their houses and cars, and opening new lines of credit with no legal ceilings on
how much Cubans can borrow. Non-state actors are allowed now to sell unlimited services and commodities directly to state-owned
enterprises and joint ventures, thereby opening new channels of commercial activity between farmers and tourist hotels, for
example. Think Viet Nam or China. The reforms include tough measures too, like shrinking the buying power of the longstanding
ration card that every Cuban gets to purchase subsidized basic goods, cutting unemployment benefits, and eventually dismissing
anywhere from 500,000 to one million employees from the state sector as bureaucratic middlemen become obsolete and tax
revenues rise.
These changes, while painful, are reason enough to be optimistic about

Cubas economic future. But something much more fundamental is at worka turn away from government
control of pricing and subsidizing products throughout the economy to a more decentralized framework of subsidizing persons based
on need. At heart, the Castro government is prepared to move Cuba from a society based on equity of results to equality of
opportunity, infused with a culture of humanism. Not that Cubas system ever offered true equality, as one taxi driver reminded me
as we drove down Havanas famous seaside Malecon. The door, however, is now opening wider to the inevitable rise in inequality
that comes from capitalism, even restrained forms of it. Whether one is able to prosper as a self-employed restauranteur, or is the
beneficiary of generous relatives sending remittances and goods home from Miami, new gradations in Cubas economic and social
strata are on the way. As long as someone arrives at their wealth legally and pays their taxes, assured one senior party official, they
are free to become rich.

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ENGAGEMENT
The Cuba embargo is codified in the Helms-Burton Act. This
constructs an enormous bureaucracy that is expensive,
counter-productive, and ignores over 300 economic reforms in
Cuba
The Cuban embargo was inaugurated by a Kennedy administration executive order

in 1960 as a response to the confiscation of American property in Cuba under the
newly installed Castro regime. The current incarnation of the embargo
codified primarily in the Helms-Burton Act aims at producing free
markets and representative democracy in Cuba through economic
sanctions, travel restrictions, and international legal penalties.
Since Fidel Castro abdicated power to his brother Raul in 2008, the
government has undertaken more than 300 economic reforms designed to
encourage enterprise, and restrictions have been lifted on property use,
travel, farming, municipal governance, electronics access, and more.
Cuba is still a place of oppression and gross human rights abuse, but recent events
would indicate the 11 million person nation is moving in the right direction.
Despite this progress, the U.S. spends massive amounts of money trying
to keep illicit Cuban goods out of the United States. At least 10 different
agencies are responsible for enforcing different provisions of the
embargo, and according to the Government Accountability Office, the U.S.
government devotes hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of thousands
of man hours to administering the embargo each year.
Cuba is making limited free market economic reforms

John Lyman, May 12, 11, Cubas Begrudging March Toward Capitalism,
International Policy Digest, ACC. 6-12-2013,
http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2011/05/12/cubas-begrudging-marchtoward-capitalism/, JT//JEDI
Recently, the Cuban government has issued new guidelines and regulations
that ostensibly open the Cuban economy to free market principles.
Included will be guidelines on the selling and buying of private homes,
private farming is admissible and automobiles may be sold. Also, importantly,
ration books will be trimmed.
The ration books provide Cubans with subsidized food and other necessary items.
I can assure you that the Guidelines are an expression of our peoples will,
contained in the policy of the Party, the Government and the State, to update the
Economic and Social Model in order to secure the continuity and irreversibility of

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Socialism as well as the economic development of the country and the

improvement of the living standard of our people combined with the indispensible
formation of ethical and political values, President Ral Castro said in announcing
the new changes.
The very fact that the changes are being made by the government
acknowledges a certain reality. Many of the changes will allow Cubans to legally
sell homes and automobiles. These economic activities have been ongoing for
decades on the Cuban black market where people previously bought and sold
automobiles and houses.
The Cuban black market or the mercado negro is viewed as importantly as the
ration cards issued by the government. Following the collapse the Cuban economy
after the collapse of the Soviet Union, by some estimates transactions from the
black market outpaced legal or formal transactions. As a result, Cuban officials
began enacting limited reforms aimed at resuscitating the Cuban
economy.
Arch Ritter of Carleton University in Ottawa suggested of the changes, These are
very important stepsTo have a housing market, for example, will be of tremendous
importance to Cuban citizens, because there hasnt been a market in 50 years. In
Cuba, people are born in the same house they die in.

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ENGAGEMENT
Raul is a willing partner, reforms are in motion
Sweig, Rockefeller, 12 -Director of Latin American Studies, Council of
Foreign Relations
Julia, Nelson, David, The Frozen U.S.-Cuba Relationship, (2/28/12)
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/frozen-us-cuba-relationship/p27510 /// JMR
The second point is what's happening in Cuba. It's not realistic to expect the
United States to undertake a series of unilateral moves toward
normalization; it needs a willing partner. I believe we have one in Havana
but have failed to read the signals. Raul Castro has now been in office since the
beginning of 2008. Raul holds the reins on both foreign policy and domestic
policy, and, domestically, the politics of implementing a fairly wide range
of economic and political and social reforms are his priority. In a deal that
was coordinated with the help of the Cuban Catholic Church and Spain, he released
all of the political prisoners in Cuba. He also is taking a number of steps that
imply a major rewriting of the social contract in Cuba to shrink the size of
the state and give Cuban individuals more freedom--economically,
especially, but also in terms of speech--than we've seen in the last fifty
years. He has privatized the residential real estate and car market[s],
expanded much-needed agrarian reform, lifted caps on salaries, and
greatly expanded space for small businesses. He also is moving to deal
with corruption and to prepare the groundwork for a great deal more
foreign investment. He's moving in the direction of the kind of reforms
that every administration over the last fifty years has called upon Cuba to
make, albeit under the rubric of a one-party system. There's a broad range of
cooperation--neighborhood security in the Gulf of Mexico, as Cuba has just
started drilling for oil, counternarcotics, and natural disasters--between
the two countries that is still not happening, and that gives me the impression
that the United States has been unwilling to take "yes" for an answer and respond
positively to steps taken by Cuba.
Squo reforms are not enough only the plan promotes a

successful transition, increased economic ties are key
Piccone 13 (Joseph, Brookings Institute Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Foreign Policy,
Opening to Havana, 1/17/13, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/01/opening-to-havana)
Under Raul Castro, the Cuban government has continued to undertake a number
of important reforms to modernize its economy, lessen its dependence on
Hugo Chavezs Venezuela, and allow citizens to make their own decisions
about their economic futures. The process of reform, however, is gradual,
highly controlled and short on yielding game-changing results that would ignite

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the economy. Failure to tap new offshore oil and gas fields and agricultural
damage from Hurricane Sandy dealt further setbacks. Independent civil society
remains confined, repressed and harassed, and strict media and internet controls
severely restrict the flow of information. The Castro generation is slowly
handing power over to the next generation of party and military leaders who
will determine the pace and scope of the reform process. These trends suggest
that an inflection point is approaching and that now is the time to try a
new paradigm for de-icing the frozen conflict. The embargo the most
complex and strictest embargo against any country in the world has
handcuffed the U nited S tates and has prevented it from having any
positive influence on the islands developments. It will serve American interests
better to learn how to work with the emerging Cuban leaders while simultaneously
ramping up direct U.S. outreach to the Cuban people. I recommend that your
administration, led by a special envoy appointed by you and reporting to the
secretary of state and the national security advisor, open a discreet dialogue with
Havana on a wide range of issues, without preconditions. The aim of the direct
bilateral talks would be to resolve outstanding issues around migration,
travel, counterterrorism and counternarcotics, the environment, and trade and
investment that are important to protecting U.S. national interests.
Outcomes of these talks could include provisions that normalize migration
flows, strengthen border security, break down the walls of communication that
hinder U.S. ability to understand how Cuba is changing, and help U.S.
businesses create new jobs. In the context of such talks your special envoy
would be authorized to signal your administrations willingness to remove Cuba
from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, pointing to its assistance to the
Colombian peace talks as fresh evidence for the decision. This would remove a
major irritant in U.S.-Cuba relations, allow a greater share of U.S.-sourced
components and services in products that enter Cuban commerce, and
free up resources to tackle serious threats to the homeland from other sources
like Iran. We should also consider authorizing payments for exports to Cuba
through financing issued by U.S. banks and granting a general license to allow
vessels that have entered Cuban ports to enter U.S. ports without having to wait six
months. You can also facilitate technical assistance on market-oriented
reforms from international financial institutions by signaling your intent to
drop outright opposition to such moves. Under this chapeau of direct talks, your
administration can seek a negotiated solution to the thorny issue of U.S. and Cuban
citizens serving long prison sentences, thereby catalyzing progress toward
removing a major obstacle to improving bilateral relations. You should, in
parallel, also take unilateral steps to expand direct contacts with the Cuban
people by: authorizing financial and technical assistance to the burgeoning
class of small businesses and cooperatives and permitting Americans to
donate and trade in goods and services with those that are certified as
independent entrepreneurs, artists, farmers, professionals and craftspeople;
adding new categories for general licensed travel to Cuba for Americans
engaged in services to the independent economic sector, e.g., law, real estate,
insurance, accounting, financial services; granting general licenses for other
travelers currently authorized only under specific licenses, such as freelance

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journalists, professional researchers, athletes, and representatives of humanitarian

organizations and private foundations; increasing or eliminating the cap on
cash and gifts that non- Cuban Americans can send to individuals, independent
businesses and families in Cuba; eliminating the daily expenditure cap for
U.S. citizens visiting Cuba and removing the prohibition on the use of U.S.
credit and bank cards in Cuba; authorizing the reestablishment of ferry
services to Cuba; expanding the list of exports licensed for sale to Cuba, including
items like school and art supplies, athletic equipment, water and food preparation
systems, retail business machines, and telecommunications equipment (currently
allowed only as donations). The steps recommended above would give your
administration the tools to have a constructive dialogue with the Cuban
government based on a set of measures that 1) would engage Cuban leaders
in high-level, face-to-face negotiations on matters that directly serve U.S.
interests in a secure, stable, prosperous and free Cuba; and 2) allow you to
assert executive authority to take unilateral steps that would increase
U.S. support to the Cuban people, as mandated by Congress. To take this step, you
will have to contend with negative reactions from a vocal, well-organized minority of
members of Congress who increasingly are out of step with their constituents on
this issue. Your initiative should be presented as a set of concrete measures to
assist the Cuban people, which is well within current congressional mandates, and
as a way to break the stalemate in resolving the case of U.S. citizen Alan Gross (his
wife is calling for direct negotiations). Those are winnable arguments. But you will
need to be prepared for some unhelpful criticism along the way.
Conclusion:
Current U.S. policy long ago outlived its usefulness and is counterproductive to
advancing the goal of helping the Cuban people. Instead it gives Cuban officials
the ability to demonize the United States in the eyes of Cubans, other Latin
Americans and the rest of the world, which annually condemns the embargo at the
United Nations. At this rate, given hardening attitudes in the region against U.S.
policy, the Cuba problem may even torpedo your next presidential Summit of the
Americas in Panama in 2015. It is time for a new approach: an initiative to test
the willingness of the Cuban government to engage constructively alongside an
effort to empower the Cuban people.

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SOLVENCY - CUBA WILL SAY YES TO THE PLAN

/REFORM
Raul Castro would say yes to the planit would distinguish his
leadership because its widely popular
Commander Carlos Iglesias, U. S. Navy, 12, United States Security Policy Implications of a PostFidel Cuba, US Army War College, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA560408, ACC. 6-4-2013,
JT//JEDI
Though Ral may have become Cubas uncontested caudillo, the political sanctity of
his brothers strategic policies have hindered the countrys progress. The residual
deference to Fidels policy precedence lingers in the political ether like a viscous
medium that resist any sweeping changes. Though incremental changes have been
possible, broad strategic changes have found resistance from Fidels past dictates.
Perhaps no issues better manifest this strategic impediment than well-intentioned
relations with Washington. Though it may only be strategically important to
Raul and just a matter of time, No other departure from his brothers legacy
would be as monumental as supporting rapprochement with Washington.
He would begin to move out of Fidels shadow, asserting himself
definitively as his own man. It would be a popular policy in the military,
with most civilian leaders, and especially with the Cuban people. His main
objective would be to win a significant reduction, or termination, of the
U.S. economic embargo. (It can be suspected) that unlike Fidel, he will be
willing to negotiate in good faith and with no superseding precedence. 29
Now is a unique window of opportunity to engage Cuba. Raul

is a pragmatist
JT//JEDI
For the first time in nearly five decades, Castros step down from power has
opened opportunities previously unavailable. Though the despotic rule has
been masterfully handed off to his younger brother, Ral Castro, things have
changed and new doors will continue to open for U.S. policies into the
near-term. For one, Ral is certainly no Fidel. Where the elder was a brilliant
demagogue and shrewd politician, the youngers leadership talents come from
managerial skills and loyal followings. On the other hand, one similarity that
the bothers have in common is their advanced ages. With both Castros in their 80s,
the inevitable next power shift looms undeniably.
For the first time in several generations, changes in the U.S., the island,
and even internationally have opened unprecedented opportunities and
windows for advancing U.S. security policy objectives towards Cuba. This
confluence of events is unique and worthy of analysis. That is the purpose of
this Project. The document will provide a general background on U.S.-Cuban
relations, address some of those nascent prospects, discuss the resultant security

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policy implications and make recommendations. All of this is in the sincerest hope of
helping to finally stopping Americans Cuba insanity.
Raul is putting his brand on Cuban socialism based on a

market economy
JT//JEDI
Since then, the younger brother has cautiously and incrementally laid the
foundation for his version of the Cuban revolution. Aside from a few reported
instances in 2009 when the residual influence of the older Castro last reared its
dissenting head, Ral has systematically moved to build his supporting
nomenklatura and affect his vision for the island. In the former, the
unexpected purge of many of his brothers Fidelistas with his own loyal
Raulistas during the 6th Communist Party of Cuba congress asserted the
absolute nature of his political coronation.24 In the latter, his vision for the
revolution includes updating of the (socialist) model.25 Many leading Cuba
analysts, academics and policy makers concur that this will ultimately
include moves towards a Chinese (or Vietnamese) model of market-based
economies controlled within an authoritarian regime. 26 Undoubtedly, Ral
Castro appreciates the benefits of a model of patrimonial authoritarianism, or
economic opportunity expanded but political power and critical economic decisionmaking authority remaining concentrated in the hands of the state.27 This will be
something akin to Socialism with a Cuban Characteristic, to play off Deng
Xiaopings famous Socialism with a Chinese Character. By 2011, the charter seeds
of such economic liberalization were to bear societal and political fruit. 28

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/REFORM
Raul Castro is a gradual reformer that will accept trade ties
ACC. 6-13-2013, JT//JEDI
Despite the U.S. governments attempts to promote democracy in Cuba through economic sanctions, Fidel Castro, the former leader
of an underdeveloped nation of 11 million people, survived eight U.S. presidents and their attempts to oust him from office .
With the recent resignation of Fidel Castro and the installation of his brother, 76-year-old Raul
Castro, as president, many observers in the U.S. and Cuba relish the opportunity
to develop stronger trade ties. Although he has not signaled any major shift in Cubas economic system, in a
speech given in July of 2007, Raul Castro acknowledged that structural changes were
necessary to increase efficiency and the production of goods in Cuba.
Castro recognizes the inherent limitations on a country that imports more than 80 percent of its
food, leaves half of its arable land fallow, and depends on Venezuela for 90 million barrels of oil per day (The Center for Democracy
Raul Castro has pursued reform

measures to make the government more efficient and invigorate the
Cuban economy. He has opened unused state land to private farmers, allowed private farmers to buy their own feed
in the Americas). During the several years he has acted as president,
and fertilizer rather than have them assigned by the state, permitted nationals to buy computers, cell phones and other appliances
that previously were prohibited, reformed the state wage system by removing salary limits, and allowed Cubans to gain title to
state-owned homes (Weissert, 1). Most experts believe that Raul Castro will not undertake dramatic economic reforms over the near
term. Furthermore, due to the diversification of its economic relationships with other countries, particularly China and Venezuela,
Cuba is less reliant on the United States as a potential business partner.
Raul Castro Will Work With US to Reform Cuba

Oppmann, 26 July 2012. Patrick. "Raul Castro Again Says Cuba Willing to Talk
with U.S." CNN. CNN, Web. 05 July 2013.
<http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/26/world/americas/cuba-us-talks>.
On Cuba's main holiday honoring the island's revolution, President Raul Castro
declared once again that his government is ready to enter into talks with
the United States. "The table is set. If they want to discuss the problems
of democracy, as they say, freedom of speech, human rights, the things
they have invented for years, we will discuss them," he said. But he added
that the Cuban government has its own grievances. The comments came on the
59th anniversary of the assault led by Fidel Castro on a military barracks that
marked the beginning of the Cuban revolution. This is not the first time Raul
Castro has expressed a willingness to talk with Washington. In April 2009,
for example, speaking at a summit of leftist Latin American leaders
gathered in Venezuela, he said he was willing to discuss "everything,
everything, everything" with the United States, even such sensitive topics
as human rights, freedom of the press and political prisoners. Cubans were
given the day off from work Thursday, and the July 26 event has historically been
reserved for important announcements. Castro's speech was broadcast several
times on the island's state-controlled media. His remarks appeared unscripted, as
he made several off-the-cuff jokes and said he had not planned to give a speech.

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Cuban First Vice President Jose Ramon Machado Ventura had already given the
keynote address, in which he demanded that the United States return the naval
base near the Cuban town of Guantanamo, where this year's celebrations are taking
place The United States maintains a five-decades-old trade embargo on
Cuba, and any improvements in relations have been stalled by a number
of issues, including the jailing of State Department contractor Alan Gross on
charges of espionage in Cuba. After Machado Ventura's speech, Raul Castro took the
stage, he said, to thank the crowd. But he said he had made several speeches this
week and would not be making formal remarks. Then he dived into the strained
U.S.-Cuba relations, saying he would prefer the two countries were
adversaries only on the baseball field. There was no olive branch, however, for
the country's internal critics, who Cuba's state-run media lambaste as paid
mercenaries working in the employ of foreign governments.

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/REFORM
Cuba is desperate and Raul needs the U.S. to institute his
plans
Peters, Hays 06 -President of Lexington Institute, Chair of Cuban
Affairs
Philip, Dennis, U.S. Engagement with a Post-Castro Cuba (7/10/2006)
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-engagement-post-castro-cuba/p11565 /// JMR
Mr. Peters seems to have forgotten that everything President Reagan did was aimed
at bringing down the Soviet Union, not preserving it. If there were any evidence
anywhere that the tourism Mr. Peters advocates could actually undermine a
dictatorship, I would support his position. Unfortunately, there isnt.
Freedom comes from the courage of men and women who stand up to
tyranny, not by increasing the number of tourists drinking mojitos on the
beach. Mr. Peters states Cuba is not bankrupt. I am curious to know what his
definition of this word is, given that Cuba is in arrears to every nation that has
ever been so foolish as to provide it funds. Spain, Mexico, Japan, South Africa,
and two dozen other countries are owed over $15 billion. The nations of the former
Eastern Bloc are owed over $22 billion. Cuba ranks with North Korea and
Zimbabwe as the worst places on earth to do business and the Cubans dont
recognize the sanctity of contracts, private property, or the rule of law. Just being
bankrupt would actually be a huge step up for the Cubans. Mr. Peters also
makes the astonishing claim that the regime is not politically weak. This
might be more convincing if a large percentage of the population didnt
routinely risk drowning at sea to escape. Or if the regime didnt feel
compelled to have a larger secret police presence spying on its citizens
than the Soviet Union, East Germany, or the Nazis ever did. Or if yet another
generation of young people was not growing old waiting for something better to
happen. If the regime feels politically strongcall an election. The original question
posed for this discussion dealt with U.S. engagement with a post-Castro Cuba,
although I think a post-Fidel Cuba is what was meant. Raul and his cronies will
try to implement the China model but they know they have to have an
opening to the United States for this to have even the slimmest chance of
success. The question then for us is what must Cuba do to warrant such an
opening. If we ask for nothing on behalf of the Cuban peoplewhat Mr. Peters
suggeststhat is exactly what we, and they, will get. Instead, why dont we work
with our allies to press any successor government to respect the dignity of the
individual and grant the rights of free speech, a free press, free assembly, and free
and fair elections? Why is this unreasonable? In the meantime, lets do what we
have done successfully elsewherehelp create independent unions, journalists
associations, farmers co-ops, human rights groups, student organizations, and so
on. Dont we believe in such things? Dont we believe the Cuban people deserve
such things?

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The FAR will support engagement

of Intl Studies at the Univ. of Denver, Appease Cuba? What Would Winston
Churchill Say?, Havana Note,
http://thehavananote.com/2011/01/appease_cuba_what_would_winston_churchill_sa
y, ACC. 6-14-2013, JT//JEDI
The rise of Raul Castro to power brought expansions of the Revolutionary Armed
Forces-security complex over the Cuban state. The FAR apparatus supposedly
designed to defend the party control over the Cuban government is today master of
the state and the party. Most of the new military cadres come from a different
experience than the revolution historicos. Their professional career is
related not to the fights of the 1960s but to the Africa wars that ended in a
compromise with the United States and South Africa, and the economic
management of the new sectors developed in the last two decades. Contrary to
most of the historicos, these cadres or their immediate relatives have
contacts with friends and family in the Cuban American community.
Therefore a policy of engagement can bring substantial political gain by
undercutting the blame-the-blockade narrative and exposing Cuban
pluralist civil society and elites to people to people contacts with the U nited
States through academic, educational, cultural, sports and even simple tourism
exchanges.

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/REFORM
Cuba is willing to reform

Moreover, the mere fact that changes are being considered to the very
foundation of the Cuban economy offers the clearest signs yet that the
country is willing to reconsider its identity in the face of a changing world.
Of the islands 11,087,330 residents, 823,000 work in some sort of private sector
job while 85% of Cubans are employed by the state. This is not a sustainable
economic model and Ral Castro knows this.
Perhaps the most significant development for Cuba was in July 2006 when
Fidel Castro ceded power to his brother Ral Castro due to health concerns.
Not that the world wished Fidel ill, with the exception of jailed and exiled Cuban
dissidents, but many knew at the time what many Cubans are aware of now. It was
time for the old standard bearer of the Cuban revolution to step aside while
fundamental changes were instituted that either Fidel refused to address or was
unaware needed to be implemented.

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SOLVENCY - LIFTING EMBARGO RESOLVES ANTIAMERICANISM

We should end sanctions. Cuban economic growth weans them
off anti-American patrons
JT//JEDI
Americas two track policy for Cuba includes the economic stick of
sanctions as well as the civic carrot of support for the Cuban people.74
In this approach, it is unfortunate that common economic benefits are
subjugated to the lead of punitive sanction. This simply misses that
American national interests are best served by an economically strong and
vibrant Cuba. To varying degrees, this is the case for all three proposed scenarios.
While it is a foregone conclusion that trade with a Free Cuba would be
optimal for both countries, a less-than-democratic but economically liberal
GOC would also engender mutually benefits.
For Cuba, the destitute economy can wait no longer. The Cuban Minister of Economy
and Planning, Marino Murillo, candidly admitted as much in 2010, the gigantic
paternalistic state can no longer be, because there is no longer a way to maintain
it.75 This confession that the country is in ruins was confirmed to be literally true
by a University of Miami study which uncovered that in Havana alone an estimated 300
buildings collapse every year, and that about 100,000 residents there live in unsafe structures. Highways, utilities
and sewage systems, water mains, and other critical infrastructure are in advanced stages of disrepair. 76
This national disrepair signals an immense latent demand for infrastructure rehabilitation. The magnitude of the
One estimate assessed the requirements

at just over $8 billion.77 FDI at these levels would be most welcomed by U.S. capital
and if invested, would help prime the Cuban economic engine.
With economic self-reliance, Cuba could finally wean itself away from the
string of anti-American patrons that it has historically courted. The current
anti-U.S. dependency is based on Hugo Chvezs political and ideological
apprenticeship to Fidel Castro, and Cubas reciprocal energy parasitism of
Venezuela. The former appealed to Fidel Castros hubris and Chvezs socialist
ambitions. In the latter, the GOC received from the South American country
approximately 90,000 barrels of the 145,000 per day (BPD) it uses.78 Chvez
domestically sold this $3.2 billion annual energy subsidy by pointing to the corps of
Cuban medical doctors which displaced Venezuela undeveloped medical profession.
need for public goods developments alone is staggering.

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SOLVENCY - LIFTING EMBARGO RESOLVES ANTIAMERICANISM

Congress and the President should lift the embargo. Its a
Cold War relic that denies U.S. & Cuban economic growth and
undermines soft power
Phyllis Pomerantz, prof. of the practice of public policy at Duke Universitys
Sanford School of Public Policy and a former staff member of the World Bank, Jan. 01
13, Nows the time to lift the U.S. embargo on Cuba, The Globe and Mail, ACC. 614-2013, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/nows-the-time-to-lift-theus-embargo-on-cuba/article6790494/, JT//JEDI
Now that the election is over, the United States has a rare opportunity to do away
with one of its most pointless and ineffective foreign policies the
embargo of Cuba that is as obsolete as the cool 1950s and 1960s sedans still running on the streets of Havana.
Just a few weeks ago, U.S. President Barack Obama sat down with leaders in Myanmar, an international pariah for many years with a
military responsible for thousands of civilian deaths. The United States now trades actively with Vietnam, which remains under the
control of the same Communist Party against whom it once fought and lost a terrible war. The U.S. has a normal, albeit complex,
diplomatic and commercial relationship with China, another Communist country.
Yet, Cuba is still treated as a pariah, a bizarre relic of the Cold War. I just
returned from a visit there and realized that lifting the embargo would be to
both countries advantage. Americans would have full access to Cubas
rich culture and natural beauty, and some new trade and investment
opportunities. Cuba would have expanded economic options, which it
needs to improve the material well-being of its citizens.
The U.S. has had normal diplomatic and commercial relationships with regimes and despots of all stripes from Mobutu in Zaire to
Mubarak in Egypt. The list is long. So what makes Cuba so special?
Is it because it is so close to the continental United States? No the U.S. has had a good, if testy, formal relationship with Mexico for
many years, including when it was a one-party state.
Is it because Cuba poses a military threat? Maybe, once upon a time. But if Americans got over the Vietnam War, they surely can put
the Cuban (or was that Soviet?) missile crisis behind them, especially since the U.S. now has quite a normal relationship with Russia.
What about a security threat? Arguably, almost every country could be wittingly or unwittingly harboring extremist plotters.
Somehow, though, I dont think al-Qaeda operatives are drinking mojitos on Cuban beaches. Cuba loosened its ban on organized
religion some time ago, but imagining either the government or its people sympathetic to Islamic fundamentalism is quite a stretch.
Is it because Cuba lacks economic opportunities for U.S. business? Granted, its not a potential powerhouse such as Russia, China or
even Vietnam for commercial purposes. But the U.S. has maintained good relationships (and made money) with many small, poor
countries. Whats one more?
Is it because Americans are standing on principle over Cubas human-rights record or strident rhetoric? Its hard to argue this when
the White House has entertained leaders of countries with even worse records and positions. Moreover, many of those countries do
not have education, health-care or food systems that reach the poor. Cuba does, although increasingly it is a challenge.
Of course, America should care about human rights and, along with that, everyone should have access to adequate food, education
and health care. But sadly, none of these reasons explain why the U.S. keeps a strict embargo on Cuba and has no diplomatic
relationship with it.
No, the real reason is because of a small vocal minority (Cuban-American exiles and their families) who happen to be clustered in an
electoral swing state (Florida) that gives them political clout. Some say the attitudes of the younger generation are softening toward
Cuba. Does Washington really need to wait another generation or two?
The U.S. stand on Cuba is incomprehensible and only serves to look

hypocritical and arbitrary in the eyes of a world that doesnt understand the
intricacies of American politics. Now that the election is over, there is a window of
opportunity to open up a full commercial and diplomatic relationship. Mr. Obama
should use the full extent of his executive powers to immediately relax
restrictions, and Congress should pass legislation lifting the remaining
legal obstacles.

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SOLVENCY LIFTING = EXPANDED TRADE

Lifting the embargo massively expands 2-way trade
William A. Messina, Jr., 3, Coordinator of Economic Analysis, Department of Food
and Resource Economics, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, UF/IFAS, University
of Florida, U.S.-Cuban Agricultural Trade: Present Realities and Future Prospects,
Testimony presented before the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, September 4,
2003, http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe438, ACC. 6-13-13, JT//JEDI
Under present policy, discussion focuses exclusively on U.S. exports of agricultural
and food products, since Cuba is not allowed to export to the United States. No one
knows when the U.S. embargo of Cuba will be lifted, but such a
development will open the door for two-way trade. A wide range of
business opportunities will arise for U.S. firms when trade and commercial
relations with Cuba are renewed, though their nature and form will vary
depending upon the economic and political situation in Cuba at the time. However,
no state in the nation will be impacted more significantly than Florida by a lifting of
the embargo, whenever it may occur.
Lifting the embargo increases 2-way trade and economies

Cassandra Copeland, Et al, 11, Division of Economics and Business
Administration, Oglethorpe University, Curtis Jolly, and Henry Thompson. "The
History and Potential of Trade Between Cuba and the US." Journal of Economics and
Business, Web. 5 July 2013, http://www.auburn.edu/~thomph1/cubahistory.pdf,
Lillie//JEDI
This survey reviews the history of trade and investment between Cuba and the US.
Aside from the embargo years, US trade and investment have been critical for Cuba.
Cuba would have become a US state following the Spanish American War but US
sugar beet farmers did not want the competition from Cuban sugar. Strong
economic ties will re-emerge with a lifted embargo, providing a
substantial boost to the regional economy including the US Southeast and
the Caribbean.
Cuba has substantial potential to export to the US. Cuba is the largest island
in the Caribbean, about as large in land area as Alabama. Two-thirds of the land in
Cuba can be cultivated. Cubas population of 11 million is about twice that of
Alabama or about equal to Georgia or the combination of Mississippi, Louisiana, and
Arkansas. Cuba is potentially a major component of the regional economy. Cubas
major agriculture exports are sugar, citrus, fish, cigars, and coffee. These crops
complement US wheat, rice, meat, poultry, cotton, soybeans, and feed grains. Cuba
also has mineral deposits of nickel (worlds second largest reserves), cobalt, iron,
copper, chromite, manganese, zinc, 12 and tungsten, as well as unexplored
petroleum potential. Cuba has no potential to export manufactures but that would
develop with foreign investment. Figure 11 reports US agricultural exports to Cuba
in 2006, led by wheat, soybeans, chicken, corn, and rice. Given this demonstrated
demand, it is safe to say lifting the embargo will increase demand for US
agricultural products. Cuba can compete in only a few international agricultural
markets but could supply a niche organic market in the US as suggested by Kost

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(1998) who projects annual agricultural exports to Cuba of $1 billion of US feed

grains with a lifted embargo. US investment could revive Cuban livestock. Per capita
caloric consumption has gradually recovered from the 1990s but the Cuban diet has
changed. Consumption of animal products is less than half its previous level due to
lost livestock production. Castro has publicly addressed Cuban shortages in meat,
milk, and other animal products. Cuban seafood products include spiny lobster,
pink shrimp, and reef fish such as snapper and grouper. Most of the spiny lobsters
are exported to Japan but the US offers a closer market. Almost half of Cuban spiny
lobster is harvested during Floridas off-season according to Messina, Spreen,
Moseley, and Adams (1996). Relaxed travel and financial restrictions would
increase trade. Florida has advanced in trade negotiations and operations but the
product trade mix may favor other states. Positive effects on manufacturing are
possible for major US exports including transport equipment and chemicals. There
will be limited import competition in manufacturing until investment in Cuba
improves infrastructure, machinery, and equipment to take advantage of cheaper
labor. The Castro regime has emphasized social services including education, the
95% literacy rate suggesting potential for 13 quick growth. Any competition would
be in labor intensive products. The US has already adjusted to such imports from
Mexico in NAFTA and from Asia in the WTO. Trade with Cuba provides the
opportunity for increased demand for US business services including engineering,
construction, shipping, transport, banking, finance, insurance, and consulting.
Tourism is expected to become a major industry, with Cuba already claiming
interest in promoting multi-destination Caribbean tourism.

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Plan boosts trade to Cuba
Copeland 11 (Cassandra, Division of Economics and Business Administration, Oglethorpe
University, The History and Potential of Trade between Cuba and the US, Journal of Economics and
Business, 2011, http://www.auburn.edu/~thomph1/cubahistory.pdf)
Relaxed travel and financial restrictions would increase trade. Florida has
advanced in trade negotiations and operations but the product trade mix may favor
other states. Positive effects on manufacturing are possible for major US
exports including transport equipment and chemicals. There will be limited import
competition in manufacturing until investment in Cuba improves infrastructure,
machinery, and equipment to take advantage of cheaper labor. The Castro regime
has emphasized social services including education, the 95% literacy rate
suggesting potential for 13 quick growth. Any competition would be in labor
intensive products. The US has already adjusted to such imports from Mexico in
NAFTA and from Asia in the WTO. Trade with Cuba provides the opportunity for
increased demand for US business services including engineering,
construction, shipping, transport, banking, finance, insurance, and
consulting. Tourism is expected to become a major industry, with Cuba already
claiming interest in promoting multi-destination Caribbean tourism. Increased
political pressure to liberalize trade can be expected as more US firms and
workers become aware of the potential gains. Most Cubans in Miami now
favor diplomatic relations with Cuba as well as limited trade according to the
Institute for Public Opinion Research (2007). The US International Trade Commission
conservatively estimates the embargo costs the US $1.2 billion annually in
lost export revenue, not a huge amount but focused on particular industries
and regions. The embargo costs the Southeastern US in particular. There
remains little rationale for the embargo as it failed to reach any political objective
and strengthened Castro. The Helms-Burton Act is also inconsistent with US policy
that maintained relations with former communist adversaries. The Act pushes the
limits of international agreements and procedures of the WTO as pointed out by
Lisio (1996). Figure 12 shows the US was Cubas major trading partner before
the embargo, a historical pattern poised to return with a lifted embargo. * Figure
12 * 4. Conclusion Cuba is poised to integrate into the regional economy
including the US Southeast and the Caribbean. Except for protectionism, Cuba
would have been a US state and the economic history of the region would have
taken a different track. The embargo of the last half century is an economic
tragedy that has suppressed development in the region encompassing
the US Southeast. The 14 present look at history suggests trade and
investment between the US and Cuba will return to substantial levels
with a lifted embargo.

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Lifting the Embargo will increase trade by hundreds of billions

and create tens of thousands of jobs
Dr. Lynch et al, 04 researchers at CEFA
Tim, ESTIMATION OF ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE
EMERGENCE OF CUBA INTO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN A POST U.S. TRADE
EMBARGO ERA ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE U.S. ECONOMY (2004) /// JMR
This section provides the results of the REMI modeling estimating the dynamic
stimulatory impact of free trade with Cuba on the U.S. economy based on the 7%,
10% and 12% growth rates forecasts trade scenario over 20 years discussed
above. As seen in Figure 10, free trade would create an additional $102.1 to
$253.4 billion growth in GDP in the U.S. economy over 20 years. This means
that the average annual total GDP losses to the U.S. economy of continuing
the embargo would be between $2.9 to $12.7 billion in addition direct
cost. This cost results from the loss of free trade. Employment Impact: Free
trade with Cuba would have considerable impact on the U.S. job market
over time. Since U.S. exports from Cuba would be significantly higher than
U.S. imports, overall impact of free trade would be positive. Figure 11
captures the potential long-term impact of free trade on U.S. employment for a total
of 20 years at a sustained estimated 7%, 10% and 12% growth rate. These three
free trade growth scenarios will result in creating between 315,269 to
845,621 US jobs over the forecasted 20 years. This means, on average, 15.8 to
42.3 thousand jobs annually would be added to the U.S. economy as a result of
introducing free trade with Cuba.

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Lifting the Embargo is sound economic theory: Multiple
Warrants
Dr. Lynch et all, researchers at CEFA 04
Tim, ESTIMATION OF ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

EMERGENCE OF CUBA INTO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN A POST U.S. TRADE
EMBARGO ERA ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE U.S. ECONOMY (2004) /// JMR
The main factor behind Cubas low trade performance is mainly ideological rather than economic. Historically, Cuba has
predominantly emphasized trade with the socialist block since Castro came to power. Even after the collapse of communism in the
former Soviet Union, Cuba continues to have Russia as the biggest trade partner. Based on the very long distance between Cuba
and the Russian Federation, the trade potential between these two countries is far below their current trade level (as estimated by
the International Trade Center, using TradeSim estimation software). After the fall of the Russian Communist regime, the imports
According
to gravity theory, one would expect that, after removing trade barriers
with Cuba, U.S. could easily exceed the peak level of exports from the
former Russian economy. Free Trade Benefits: Theoretical Framework This study relies on two theories: Ricardian comparative
from the Soviet block to Cuba declined from $8 billion to $1.7 billion from 1989 to 1993 (Robins & Trujillo, 1999).
advantage theory and gravity theory. Although there have been almost two centuries since David Ricardo formulized his famous theory of comparative
advantage, there are continues discussion of the same topic (Buchanan & Yang J. Yoon, 2003; Nords, 2000; Ruffin, 2002). In its most simple form,
Ricardian theory assumes two countries produce two goods using labor as the only factor of production. Goods are assumed homogeneous across firms
and countries. There is no transportation cost for moving goods between countries. In this model, labor is homogeneous within a country but
heterogeneous across countries. Labor can move between firms within a country but cannot move between countries. There is always full employment
and perfect competition in the market. Under the assumptions above, the main issue in the Ricardian model is what happens when two countries move
from the closed economy (no trade) to open one (free trade). In other words, how trade effects the prices, production, employment, wages, incomes,
consumption, and welfare in both countries. In the case of trade liberation, the initial differences in relative prices of the product between countries will
stimulate trade between the countries. Profit-maximizer firms in each country's comparative advantage industry would notice that the price of their good
is higher in the other country. Since, in theory, there is no cost (or minimal cost) for them to transport their product to the other country, they will increase
their export instead of selling to the domestic consumers. Thus, each country would export the product in which they have a comparative advantage.
Trade flows would increase until the price of each product becomes equal across countries. Ultimately, each country will receive a higher price for the
product they export because of their comparative advantage. The higher price would lead each country to specialize in the product they have a
The trade liberation, according to Ricardian theory, generates an

improvement in welfare for both countries. First, specialization and trade will
increase the total production, compared with autarky (this is a policy of national
self-sufficiency and nonreliance on imports or economic aid from outside), and will
make possible an increase in consumption of goods in both countries. These
aggregate gains are often described as improvements in production and
consumption efficiency. Second, free trade also improves aggregate
consumption efficiency, which implies that consumers have a greater array
of choices available to them. The consumers could have more alternative
products at relatively lower prices. Third, real wages and incomes of people
will increase in both countries. Thus, everyone can consume more of both
goods in free trade compared with autarky. This means that everybody benefits
from free trade in both countries. Therefore, in the Ricardian model, trade is
truly a win-win conclusion for the individuals within and the economies of
both countries. The other theoretical model this study relies on is the
gravity model (Gould, 1994; Wall, 1999; Yang, Askari, Forrer, & Teegen, 2004). Isaac Newton originally sets up the model to explain
comparative advantage.
gravitational force in the universe. His theory argues that the gravitational pull between two celestial bodies is positively related to the product of their
masses and inversely related to their distance apart. The gravity model has consistently been used as a tool for the analysis of bilateral trade flows. The
model as applied to trade predicts that the amount of trade between two countries is positively related to the product of their outputs, and negatively
related to the distance between them. The gravity model has been applied to bilateral trade since the 1960s and has been increasingly used in the 1990s
Gravity theory suggests that U.S has more

advantages than Russia and European countries to benefit from trade
liberation with Cuba. This is due to that a lifting of sanctions would result
as an empirical tool in order to analyze regional trading areas.

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in the U.S. adding approximately 11 million additional customers just 90

miles from Floridas shores. The general realization is that, (as has happened in across Eastern Europe, Russia
and China after the better part of a century of socialistic rule) liberalization of markets created a surge of many billions of new
dollars (new capital), private sector multinational (and especially U.S. entrepreneurial) corporations and other interests to those
That, in turn, will usher in a Phoenix-like rise in the Cuban economy

from pent up demand just as it has done elsewhere in the world. As the Cuban workers and consumers grow in
economies.
wealth from the surge in economic infusion from the U.S. (and elsewhere) they in turn demand more products from global
(particularly the U.S.) markets.
Both nations grow in wealth and benefit from this

liberalization in trade. This push-pull economic growth forecast is a simple repeat of economic experiences gained
elsewhere in the world over the past three decades. Cubas proximate location to the U.S. and
the millions of well-intended Cuban-Americans with close historic and
family ties and substantial financial resources in Florida (and elsewhere)
would ensure this Cuban economic Renaissance much like the rise of East Germany from the embrace
of West Germany after the fall of the Berlin wall. East and West Germans are now both members of one of the most productive economies in the world. So
also it is the potential for Cuba.

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SOLVENCY LIFTING = BETTER RELATIONS

Must repeal embargo to boost relations
COHA 13 (Council on Hemispheric Affairs) Best Time for U.S. Cuba
Rapprochement Is Now 1/30/13 // sb
http://www.coha.org/best-time-for-u-s-cuba-rapprochement-is-now/
The Obama Administration should be prepared to take, in quick progression,
three important initial steps to trigger a speedy rapprochement with Cuba:
immediately phase out the embargo, free the Cuban five, and remove Havana
from the spurious State Department roster of nations purportedly sponsoring
terrorism. These measures should be seen as indispensable if Washington is
to ever mount a credible regional policy of mutual respect among nations
and adjust to the increased ideological diversity and independence of the Latin
American and Caribbean regions. Washingtons path towards an urgently needed
rehabilitation of its hemispheric policy ought to also include consideration of Cubas
own pressing national interests. A thaw in USCuba relations would enhance
existing security cooperation between the countries, amplify trade and
commercial ties, and guarantee new opportunities for citizens of both
nations to build bridges of friendship and cooperation. For this to happen,
the Obama Administration would have to muster the audacity to resist the antiCastro lobby and their hardline allies in Congress, whose Cuba bashing has no
limits. Nevertheless, it is time to replace belligerency with dtente.

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SOLVENCY U.S.-CUBAN RELATIONS LOW NOW
US-Cuban Relations are frozen in the SQ

Hanson and Lee, Directors for the Counsel of Foreign Relations , 13,
Stephanie and Brianna, U.S.-Cuba Relations (1/31/2013),
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113 /// JMR
Cuba has been at odds with the United States since Fidel Castro assumed
power in 1959. Successive U.S. administrations have employed tough
measures against the country, including prolonged economic sanctions
and designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, but none have
substantially weakened Castro's rule. In February 2008, longtime president Fidel
Castro formally resigned from office, sixteen months after transferring many powers
to his brother Ral due to illness. Despite stirrings of U.S. economic interest in
Cuba and some policy softening under President Barack Obama, experts
say that normalization of bilateral relations is unlikely in the near to
medium term. Tensions between the two countries peaked with the 2009 arrest of
U.S. citizen Alan Gross, who was tried and convicted of attempting to destabilize the
Cuban regime through a U.S.-sponsored program. Recently, Ral Castro has
implemented major reforms, including the lifting of fifty-year-old travel restrictions
for Cuban citizens, which, analysts say, are helping the country strengthen ties with
its Latin American neighbors. What is the status of U.S.-Cuba relations? They
are virtually nonexistent. There is a U.S. mission in Havana, Cuba's capital, but
it has minimal communication with the Cuban government. Since 1961, the
official U.S. policy toward Cuba has been two-pronged: economic embargo
and diplomatic isolation. The George W. Bush administration strongly enforced
the embargo and increased travel restrictions. Americans with immediate family in
Cuba could visit once every three years for a maximum of two weeks, while family
remittances to Cuba were reduced from $3,000 to just $300 in 2004. However, in
April 2009, President Obama eased some of these policies. He went further in 2011
to undo many of the restrictions imposed by the Bush administration, thus allowing
U.S. citizens to send remittances to non-family members in Cuba and to travel to
Cuba for educational or religious purposes. Congress amended the trade embargo in
2000 to allow agricultural exports from the United States to Cuba. In 2008, U.S.
companies exported roughly $710 million worth of food and agricultural
products to the island nation, according to the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic
Council. However, that number fell by about 50 percent in 2012. Total
agricultural exports since 2001 reached $3.5 billion as of February 2012. Nebraska,
Oklahoma, and Texas have all brokered agricultural deals with Cuba in recent years.
Given the range of issues dividing the two countries, experts say a long process
would precede resumption of diplomatic relations. Daniel P. Erikson of the InterAmerican Dialogue says that though "you could have the resumption of
bilateral talks on issues related to counternarcotics or immigration, or a period of
dtente, you are probably not going to see the full restoration of diplomatic
relations" in the near term.

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OTHER SOLVENCY ADVOCATES

Travel, remittances, allow HB to expire
Daniel T. Griswold, May 27, 2, associate director of the Cato Institutes Center for Trade Policy
Studies, No: The Embargo Harms Cubans and Gives Castro an Excuse for the Policy Failures of His
Regime, ACC. 6-1-2013, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/no-embargo-harms-cubansgives-castro-excuse-policy-failures-regime, JT//JEDI
Economic sanctions rarely work. Trade and investment sanctions against Burma,
Iran, Iraq, and North Korea have failed to change the behavior of any of those
oppressive regimes; sanctions have only deepened the deprivation of the
very people we are trying to help. President George W. Bush and Republican
leaders in Congress understand that economic engagement with China
offers the best hope for encouraging human rights and political reforms in
that country, yet they fail to apply that same thinking to Cuba. Pressure has been
building in Congress for a new policy toward Cuba. Two years ago Congress voted to allow limited sales of food and medical supplies to Cuba on a cashonly basis, and the House voted by wide margins in 2000 and 2001 to lift the travel ban (although that provision died in the Senate). Both the Senate and
the House voted this spring in favor of third-party financing for farm exports to Cuba while debating this years farm bill, but the provision was stripped
from the final bill in the conference committee. A new House caucus, the Cuban Working Group, composed of 20 Democrats and 20 Republicans, unveiled
a plan recently for easing the embargo. Speaking for the group, Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) delivered a withering indictment of U.S. policy: For over 40 years,
our policy toward Cuba has yielded no results. Castro hasnt held free and fair elections, he hasnt improved human rights and he hasnt stopped
preaching his hate for democracy and the U.S. Its time to try something new. Instead of relaxing the failed Cuban embargo, the Bush administration
wants to continue the status quo. In a speech on May 20, the president reaffirmed his support for keeping the trade and travel embargoes in place until
the Cuban government holds free elections. The administration already has quadrupled the number of Americans cited for violating the travel ban in 2001
compared with the number cited the last year of the Clinton administration. For example, one 75-year-old retired schoolteacher was fined $1,000 for a
recent bicycle tour through rural Cuba. According to U.S. law, citizens can travel more or less freely to such axis of evil countries as Iran and North
Korea. But if Americans want to visit Cuba legally, they need to be a former president or some other well-connected VIP or a Cuban-American. The
strongest supporters of the Cuban trade embargo are Cuban-Americans concentrated in Southern Florida an important constituency in a key electoral
state. Yet those very same Cuban-Americans routinely and massively violate the spirit if not the letter of the embargo. Each year, they send $800 million
in hard-dollar remittances to their friends and families back in Cuba; another 100,000 Cuban-Americans actually visit their homeland each year through a
special program for emergency visits (most of which occur around the Christmas holiday). In the name of politics, Cuban-American leaders want to
restrict the freedom of other Americans to visit Cuba while retaining that freedom for themselves.
Lifting or modifying the embargo would not be a victory for Castro or his
oppressive regime. It would be an overdue acknowledgment that the fourdecade-old embargo has failed and that commercial engagement is the
best way to encourage more-open societies abroad. The U.S. government
can and should continue to criticize the Cuban governments abuse of
human rights, while allowing expanding trade and tourism to undermine
Castros authority from below. Instead of the embargo, Congress and the
administration should take concrete if incremental steps to expand
American influence in Cuba. First, the travel ban should be lifted. Yes,
more American dollars would end up in the coffers of the Cuban
government, but dollars also would go to private Cuban citizens. Philip
Peters, a former State Department official in the Reagan administration and an
expert on Cuba, argues that American tourists would boost the earnings of
Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis, sell art and operate restaurants in
their homes. Those dollars then would find their way to the 300 freely
priced farmers markets, to carpenters, repairmen, tutors, food venders
and other entrepreneurs. Second, restrictions on remittances should be
lifted. Cuban-Americans currently can send a maximum of $1,200 a year to friends
and relatives in Cuba. Like tourism, expanded remittances would fuel the
private sector, encourage Cubas modest economic reforms and promote
independence from the government. Third, American farmers and medical
suppliers should be allowed to sell their products to Cuba with financing
arranged by private commercial lenders, not just for cash as current law
permits. Most international trade is financed by temporary credit, and private banks, not taxpayers, would bear the risk .

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Finally, the Helms-Burton law should be allowed to expire in 2003. Like

every other aspect of the embargo, it has failed to achieve its stated
objectives and has, in fact, undermined U.S. influence in Cuba. In an April 4 speech
on the importance of trade-promotion authority, President Bush noted that trade was about more than raising incomes. Trade
creates the habits of freedom, the president said, and those habits begin to create the expectations of democracy and demands
for better democratic institutions.
Societies that are open to commerce across their

borders are more open to democracy within their borders. And for those of us who care
about values and believe in values not just American values, but universal values that promote human dignity trade is a good
way to do that. Bush should apply that same moral and practical reasoning to his administrations policy toward Cuba .
The
most powerful force for change in Cuba will not be more sanctions or a short
visit by a former U.S. president, but daily interaction with free people bearing
dollars and new ideas.

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TERRORISM ADV.
Lifting the embargo allows the U.S. to focus resources on
transnational threats like terrorism and proliferation
JT//JEDI
Cuba once stood as a bastion of communism and a surrogate of the Soviet

Union just 90 miles from US shoresa clear threat to national security. Today,
the Soviet Union is gone and Cuba, though still ruled by communists, poses no
major security threat to the US. Yet, despite these fundamental changes, the
US embargo of Cuba continues. Originally designed to isolate Cuba and force a
shift to a free and open democratic government, the embargo has failed on both
fronts. Nearly 50 years after President Eisenhower severed official diplomatic ties
with Cuba, it is time to reassess US policy toward Cuba and lift the embargo.
Bringing Cuba out of isolation and back into the international fold is a
smart move on many fronts; but, most importantly, it would allow the US to
concentrate on real security threats. The major security challenges of the
21st centurytransnational terrorists, cyber warfare, and nuclear
proliferationrequire that US security policy shift away from antiquated
Cold War thinking so that policymakers can properly allocate resources to
confront these challenges. Lifting the embargo and engaging Cuba would
be a significant step in shifting security policy to meet 21st century
threats.
Terrorism risks extinction

Yonah Alexander, 3, Inter-University for Terrorism Studies Director, The
Washington Times, "Terrorism myths and realities," 8/28,

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2003/aug/27/20030827-084256-8999r/?
page=all
Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again
illustrated dramatically that the international community failed, thus far at
least, to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist
threats to the very survival of civilization itself. Even the United States and Israel have for
decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national
security concerns. It is not surprising, therefore, that on September 11, 2001, Americans were stunned by the unprecedented
tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. Likewise,
Israel and its citizens, despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second
intifada that began almost three years ago, are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to
revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. Why are the United States and
Israel, as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist
"surprises"? There are many reasons, including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's
expansion, such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism, the religionization of politics, double standards of morality, weak
punishment of terrorists, and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare .
Unlike their
historical counterparts, contemporary terrorists have introduced a new
scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and
impact. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future
terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e.g.

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biological, chemical, radiological, nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications
concerning national, regional and global security concerns.
PROLIF LEADS TO EXTINCTION

Victor Utgoff, 2, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division
of the Institute for Defense Analysis, SURVIVAL, Fall, 2002, p. 87-90
In sum, widespread proliferation is likely to lead to an occasional shoot-
out with nuclear weapons, and that such shoot-outs will have a
substantial probability of escalating to the maximum destruction
possible with the weapons at hand. Unless nuclear proliferation is stopped,
we are headed toward a world that will mirror the American Wild West of
the late 1800s. With most, if not all, nations wearing nuclear 'six-shooters' on their
hips, the world may even be a more polite place than it is today, but every once in a
while we will all gather on a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or
even whole nations.

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TERRORISM ADV. TRADES OFF INTERNALS

Continuing the embargo trades off with anti-terrorism
resources
Security Strategy Towards Cuba," Strategy Research Project, www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA518053, ACC. 6-11-2013,
JT//JEDI
Several embargo refinements over the years like the Libertad Act have
further tightened restrictions on Cuba. These restrictions have placed a
heavy burden on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and the
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) particularly in Miami. A 2007 GAO report
highlights these burdens and how they impede other more important Law
Enforcement activities in defense of the homeland.32
GAO findings suggest theres a real need to balance U.S. paranoia for
everything Cuba. This rebalancing purports an unacceptable costbenefit to the current law enforcement aspect of the embargo. It
diminishes our greater need to defend against terrorist, criminals and
other real threats to our national security. In essence, our efforts to impose
embargo restrictions are unacceptable tradeoffs for homeland security.
Current travel restrictions make the U.S. more vulnerable to

attack
Current travel restrictions also place a tremendous burden on the same
taxpayer dollars that are allocated to investigate al Qaeda and keep
international terrorists and criminals out of the United States. A 2007 U.S.
Government report concluded that inspections of travelers arriving from Cuba may
strain efforts to keep out terrorists and criminals from entering the country.
Eliminating the travel ban would allow the U.S. Government to redeploy its
resources to tackle more urgent pursuits.

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TERRORISM ADV. SOLVENCY

Ending the embargo frees up the OFAC to respond to threats
by terrorists and rogue states
JT//JEDI
Keeping the embargo in place requires that the US government devote

time and resources to fighting a Cold War-era threat. Senator Chris Dodd
argued in a 2005 oped that the US spends extraordinary resources each year to
enforce the sanctions instead of devoting such resources to the fight against
terrorism.4 While the financial resources dedicated to enforcing the
embargo may be limited compared to resources dedicated to other causes,
lifting the Cuban embargo could put the US in a better position to fight
terrorist organizations by freeing up resources currently enforcing the
embargo.
For example, the Treasury Departments Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC),
which governs travel and trade between the US and Cuba, is also responsible for
maintaining sanctions against truly problematic countries, including Iran
and North Korea. OFAC also is responsible for responding to economic
threats posed by terrorist organizations and narcotics traffickers. By
ending OFACs need to regulate the Cuban embargo, OFAC could instead
devote those resources to respond to the current threats posed by rogue
states and terrorist networks.
Scrapping the embargo sends a strong anti-terrorism message

Aaron Lukas, Dec. 14, 1, analyst at the Cato Institutes Center for Trade Policy Studies, Its
Time, Finally, to End the Cuban Embargo, acc. 5-20-2013,
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/its-time-finally-end-cuban-embargo, JT//JEDI
But perhaps most significant would be the message that scrapping the
embargo would send to the Taliban and other regimes that sponsor
terrorism: foreign governments need not follow the American model, but
states that attack us forfeit the right to choose their own destiny.
Of course, the reason that the embargo has persisted in the face of overwhelming evidence that its
failed has been the strength of the Cuban-American lobby in Congress. Yet pro-embargo sentiment is
weaker than ever for a variety of reasons, including bad press garnered by Miami Cubans over the
Elin Gonzlez standoff. Moreover, armed conflict has a way of lending political capital to presidents
that is unavailable in times of peace. President Bush thus has a unique opportunity to change direction
on Cuba that his predecessors lacked.
The Cuban embargo long ago outlived its usefulness. With war now raging
against radical Islam, its time to let go of a policy that only serves to
punish the innocent and antagonize our friends. Let Cubans freely taste

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the carrot of our prosperity through trade and lets save the sanctions
stick for true enemies.

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TERRORISM ADV. HIGH RISK (NUCLEAR)

Nuclear Terrorism is likely and theres a high risk
Wilson 10
Valerie Plame Wilson, Wilson worked for the CIA for 17 years and specialized in nuclear counter
proliferation, Nuclear terrorism is most urgent threat, CNN, 4/8/10, 7/5/13,
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/04/08/plame.wilson.nuclear.danger/index.html,
MAE
I resigned from the CIA in 2006 because it was no longer possible to do the covert
work for which I was highly trained and which I loved. This happened because in
2003, my covert identity was revealed in retaliation against my husband,
Ambassador Joe Wilson, who wrote an op-ed piece in which he accused the White
House of distorting the intelligence that was used to draw us into the Iraq war. But I
did not lose my belief that the danger of nuclear terrorism is the most urgent
threat we face. Nor did I lose my passion for working, albeit in a new way, to
address that threat. I am working on this issue now as part of the international
Global Zero movement, in which political, military and faith leaders, experts and
activists strive for the worldwide elimination of all nuclear weapons. We know that
terrorist groups have been trying to buy, build or steal a bomb. In the past
two decades, there have been at least 25 instances of nuclear explosive
materials being lost or stolen. There is enough highly enriched uranium, or
HEU, in the world today to build more than 100,000 bombs. Terrorists looking
to buy or steal HEU could look to the approximately 40 countries with nuclear
weapons materials. And then there are rogue individuals out there who are
running black markets selling nuclear materials and technology. Pakistan's
Dr. A. Q. Khan did it for years before my group at the CIA brought him down in
December 2003 after catching him red-handed selling a full-scale nuclear bomb to
Moammar Gadhafi's regime in Libya. If terrorists manage to get their hands on
enough HEU, they could smuggle it into a target city, build a bomb and
explode it. A hundred pounds of highly enriched uranium could fit in a shoebox,
and 100,000 shipping containers come into the United States every day.
High risk of WMD use

Donn 13 Bobb, Donn. United nations radio: Donn Bobb is the Chief executive producer at United Nations
Radio. He holds a bachelors degree in Mass Communications. The possibility that terrorist groups could obtain
weapons of mass destruction should not be diminished as ficition: Ban.
http://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/english/2013/04/the-possibility-that-terrorist-groups-could-obtain-weapons-ofmass-destruction-should-not-be-dismissed-as-a-fiction-ban/ 4/23/13. 7/6/13.// MAE
Weapons of mass destruction remain among the gravest security threats

facing the world community including the risk that these destructive
weapons may be acquired and used by non-state actors.
The warning comes from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in remarks at an event on "Preventing the Proliferation of the Weapons
of Mass Destruction to Non-State Actors: The Implementation of Resolution 1540 in the Arab World".
Secretary-General Ban said the possibility that terrorist groups could

obtain weapons of mass destruction should not be dismissed as a fiction.

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And he cautioned that "this is a horrific threat the international community

should take seriously".
As long as these weapons exist, so, too, does the risk of their use by
accident or design. Let me be clear: the most reliable way to prevent both the
proliferation and use of these weapons is through their total and verified
elimination. There are no right hands that can handle these wrong
weapons."
Secretary-General Ban welcomed stronger international measures to prevent
terrorist groups and non-state actors from gaining access to the most lethal
weapons and materials. He stressed that bolstering rule of law in this field is essential.

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TERRORISM ADV. IMPACT EXT.

ALL-OUT NUCLEAR WAR
Patrick F. Speice, 6, JD Candidate @ College of William and Mary [Patrick F. Speice, Jr.,
NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN
NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS, William & Mary Law Review, February 2006, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427
there is a significant and ever-present risk that terrorists could

acquire a nuclear device or fissile material from Russia as a result of the
confluence of Russian economic decline and the end of stringent Soviet-era nuclear
security measures. 39 Terrorist groups could acquire a nuclear weapon by a
number of methods, including "steal[ing] one intact from the stockpile of a
country possessing such weapons, or ... [being] sold or given one by such a country,
or [buying or stealing] one from another subnational group that had obtained it in
one of these ways." 40 Equally threatening, however, is the risk that terrorists will
steal or purchase fissile material and construct a nuclear device on their own. Very
little material is necessary to construct a highly destructive nuclear weapon . 41 Although
Accordingly,
nuclear devices are extraordinarily complex, the technical barriers to constructing a workable weapon are not significant. 42
the sheer number of methods that could be used to deliver a nuclear

device into the United States makes it incredibly likely that terrorists could
successfully employ a nuclear weapon once it was built. 43 Accordingly, supply-side controls that are
Moreover,
aimed at preventing terrorists from acquiring nuclear material in the first place are the most effective means of countering the risk
of nuclear terrorism. 44
Moreover, the end of the Cold War eliminated the rationale for maintaining a large
military-industrial complex in Russia, and the nuclear cities were closed. 45 This
resulted in at least 35,000 nuclear scientists becoming unemployed in an economy
that was collapsing. 46 Although the economy has stabilized somewhat, there are
still at least 20,000 former scientists who are unemployed or underpaid and who are
too young to retire, 47 raising the chilling prospect that these scientists will be
tempted to sell their nuclear knowledge, or steal nuclear material to sell, to states
or terrorist organizations with nuclear ambitions. 48
The potential consequences of the unchecked spread of nuclear knowledge and
material to terrorist groups that seek to cause mass destruction in the United States
are truly horrifying. A terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon would be
devastating in terms of immediate human and economic losses. 49 Moreover,
there would be immense political pressure in the United States to discover the
perpetrators and retaliate with nuclear weapons, massively increasing the number of
casualties and potentially triggering a full-scale nuclear conflict . 50 In addition to the
threat posed by terrorists, leakage of nuclear knowledge and material from Russia will reduce the barriers that states with nuclear
This proliferation will increase the

risk of nuclear attacks against the United States or its allies by hostile states, 52 as well as
increase the likelihood that regional conflicts will draw in the U nited States and
escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. 53
ambitions face and may trigger widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons. 51
Extinction
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, 4, Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, Al-Ahram Weekly,
"Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm

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What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists ? Even if
it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world
in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police
measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights,
tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic
conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and
develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is
to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead
to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a
conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this
war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects
the whole planet, we will all be losers.

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SOFT POWER ADV.

The embargo continually degrades our soft power and allows
Cuba to spread anti-Americanism
COLONEL LANCE R. KOENIG, US Army, Nov. 3, 10, TIME FOR A NEW CUBA POLICY, ACC. 6-42013,
www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130, JT//JEDI
The efforts expended by the United States to keep the embargo effective, the
loss of trade, and the loss of soft power in most of the world are clearly
not worth it in comparison to the threat that Cuba poses today. The gains
to be achieved by following any path other than the unilateral removal of
the economic and travel embargoes are small in comparison to the overall
costs of continuing the current failed policy. The U nited States is losing far too
much soft power in its efforts to punish and isolate the government of
Cuba. American firms could be left out of any economic gains as Cuba continues to
grow its economy. As Cuba emerges from the economic difficulties of the last two
decades, the United States has an opportunity to influence the future direction of
our southern neighbor. The current United States policy has many passionate
defenders, and their criticism of the Castro regime is justified. Nevertheless, we
must recognize the ineffectiveness of our current policy and deal with the Cuban
regime in a way that enhances United States interests.42
The United States cannot afford to miss out on the window of opportunity to
affect a positive change in the relationship with Cuba. If Cuba is able to
continue on a path of economic progress and emerge once again as a true
regional power, with communism intact, the United States will be the loser in this
half century struggle. Cuba is spreading its limited influence to Venezuela,
Honduras, Nicaragua, and will be ready to bring in any other countries in the
Americas that want to move away from the United States orbit. The United States cant
stand by and watch Cuba regain strength, intact as a communist country,
but must take this opportunity to create an inflection point for Cuba that
guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.
Lifting the Cuban Embargo would increase the USs relations

with almost every country in the world.
Roger R. Betancourt, 13. (Development Research Center). April 8, 2013. Should the
US Lift the Embargo? http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/08/should-the-us-lift-theembargo-by-roger-betancourt/ Acc.7/4/13 //SH
This is even more applicable in the case of the US, which has more alternatives due
to its higher level of wealth. With respect to restrictions motivated by
national security, selective restrictions that apply to all countries,
including China, would be more than sufficient to satisfy these objectives.
While Cuba would benefit more economically than the US from the lifting
of these restrictions, the US would benefit more in terms of improving its
international relations with almost every other country in the world . They
vote against the US embargo every year at the UN.

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SOFT POWER ADV.

Reversing hypocritical economic policies bolsters soft power
Its essential to prevent global conflicts, terrorism, cyber
attacks & prolif.
Sydney Outzen, Feb. 20, 13, Hard Decisions for the Future of Soft Power,
http://praemon.org/2013/02/20/hard-decisions-for-the-future-of-soft-power/, ACC.
6/26/2013, JT//JEDI
If the current administration is going to lean heavily on soft power, then it
must align United States rhetoric with its actions to increase its ability to
leverage and stabilize conflicts. The consequent increase in soft power is
one method to tighten national security without risking precious blood
and treasure. Engagement through the last decade has been characterized by a trend in forgoing traditional justice in
favor of techniques some call torture as well as assassinations carried out by robotic technology. Although useful at times, leaders
must limit the use of this technology and other methods in consideration of the often underestimated casualty of regional public
opinion or moral high ground. Preserving goodwill is crucial to achieving our diplomatic aims and preventing the establishment of
terror groups. Additionally, increased use of powerful technology sparks competition, a primary concern in current non-proliferation
negotiations. One need look no further than the announcements of nuclear weapons testing from North Korea and Iran for evidence
of challenges to US power and attempts to model its might. As the United States limits its supporting role in conflicts within its
interests, the world will increasingly identify the US with the few actions it does carry out, namely those that literally strike closest to
home. Policymakers need to ensure that actions abroad model both the United States democratic principles and those they hope to
establish instead of brandishing a double standard.
Soft power is not limited to rhetoric and official state visits;
the United States should consider its use of
economic and cultural influence.
Although the United States still leads in the economic arena, steep debt and
recession closes the economic gap between the rising economies on which we have become dependent. Increased energy
independence offers a perfect opportunity to step up our economic game and minimize our stakes in volatile areas. Private sector
By remaining
a global player, we protect our economic interests and alleviate the global
income disparity that often catalyzes paralyzing conflicts. Stabilization in
both regional conflicts and emerging markets works to increase our
economic strength and win the solidarity of domestic constituents and
international partners. Nonengagement risks the loss of crucial markets to
competitors who are willing to capitalize on new opportunities.
actors should primarily lead the way in less threatening situations to lessen the burden on the public sector.
Solely using the bully pulpit to denounce atrocious crimes underscores a lack of deliberate action in accordance with our rhetoric
and values. Especially in a post-9/11 world where internal conflicts impact the regional balance of power, the United States cannot
continue to walk away or ignore issues when diplomatic efforts fail. The Arab Spring exemplifies the domino nature of drastic regime
America cannot afford to entangle

itself in another Middle Eastern conflict, but chemical weapons
proliferation, the spread of terrorism, and changes in the regional balance
of power offer numerous reasons that the United States should address this
conflict with more than lip service and aid donations.
changes altering the political and economic landscape. Realistically,
Our options are not limited to either speeches denouncing violence at one extreme or full-scale war at the other. Rather, we can
innovatively apply tools of last-resort, such as leading a coalition or providing crucial air cover while ensuring that the regional
if the administration
does not act, then the gap in global leadership combined with a loss of
regional trust allow rising US opponents to exploit such an opening to vie
for the role of international hegemon. In the wake of national security
threats that demonstrate the pushback from rising powers, including
cyber attacks and announcements of nuclear capabilities, the U nited States must
increase its leverage to demonstrate that it will not cede any territory. Failure to do so would allow the United
partners we have culled in our diplomatic efforts are the primary line of defense. However,
States to be acted upon as other nations dictate the outcomes of conflict.

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SOFT POWER ADV. Low Now

US Soft power is at an all-time low with a soft-power vacuum
emerging
Edward Hadas, Nov. 19, 12, Economics Editor at Reuters, Has the United States
Lost Its Power to Peacefully Coerce Other Nations?, Slate,

http://www.slate.com/blogs/breakingviews/2012/11/19/the_disappearance_of_soft_p
ower_has_the_united_states_lost_its_power_ to.html, ACC. 6-28-2013, JT//JEDI
Soft power is proving to be priceless - and scarce. The United States may not have
lost much power to coerce but its power to co-opt has weakened. Despite the
claims of a new study, no country has taken its place. The soft power vacuum
makes the world a little more risky.
The ancient Romans, the early Muslims, Napoleons France and the Britain of
industry and empire were all long gone by 1990 when political scientist Joseph Nye
introduced the term soft power to describe Americas ability to influence foreign
countries without military or commercial pressure. All these powers had a certain
something - a persuasive worldview, a sense of accomplishment, a feeling of
destiny - that made the available brute force more palatable and powerful.
Nye thought the appeal of the U.S. way of life would help set the global and regional
political-economic agendas. For a while, he was at least partly right. The
Washington consensus guided economic policy in many developing countries, U.S.style secular democracy was considered the global standard and many admired the
American vision of big finance and small government.
The United States is still emulated, but is also now increasingly distrusted.
Whether the reason is some nebulous domestic loss of spirit, foolish foreign policy,
the financial crisis or something else, the country is probably held in lower
esteem internationally than at any time since the isolationist and
Depression-struck 1930s.

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SOFT POWER ADV. INTERNAL LINK EXT.

Anti-Americanism is growing among Latin American leaders
Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders

seeking long-term as well as short-term gains in Latin American elections.
In Venezuela, the anti-American rhetoric spewed by Hugo Chavez masks his
otherwise autocratic tendencies, while countries like Bolivia and Ecuador tilt further
away from Washington, both rhetorically and substantively. The former expelled the
U.S. Ambassador in October 2008, and the latter has refused to renew Washington's
lease on an airbase traditionally used for counter-narcotics missions. The systemic
neglect for eight years during the Bush Administration meant that political capital
was never seriously spent dealing with issues affecting the region. Because of this,
President Bush was unable to get much headway with his proposal to reform
immigration, and his free trade agreement with Colombia encountered significant
opposition in Congress. Recent examples of U.S. unilateralism, disregard for
international law and norms, and a growing financial crisis, have all been
seized by a new generation of populist Latin American leaders who stoke
anti-American sentiment.
The region, however, is absolutely critical to our national interest and
security. Over thirty percent of our oil comes from Latin America - more
than the U.S. imports from the Middle East. Additionally, over half of the
foreign-born population in the United States is Latin American, meaning that a
significant portion of American society is intrinsically tied to the region. n1 These
immigrants, as well as their sons and daughters, have already begun to take their
place amongst America's social, cultural, and political elite.
The embargo is a lightning rod for anti-U.S. criticism globally

Amnesty International 9, THE US EMBARGO AGAINST CUBA: ITS IMPACT ON
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RIGHTS,

http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/AMR25/007/2009/en/51469f8b-73f8-47a2-a5bd-f839adf50488/
amr250072009eng.pdf, ACC. 6-1-2013, JT//JEDI
For nearly half a century, the USA has unilaterally imposed an economic,
commercial, and financial embargo against Cuba. The severity and the scope
of the sanctions have varied, depending on political developments in Cuba, the USA
and the rest of the world. The continuous imposition of the embargo has
provoked frequent and intense debates in international forums. The UN
General Assembly has repeatedly condemned the US embargo as contrary to the
Charter of the United Nations and international law. On 29 October 2008 the UN
General Assembly passed a resolution reiterating for the 17th time its call on the
USA to end its embargo against Cuba.2 That resolution was adopted with 185 votes
in favour, three against and two abstentions.3 The Inter-American Commission on
Human Rights has also reiterated its position regarding the impact of such
sanctions on the human rights of the Cuban people and, therefore, insists that the
embargo be lifted.4

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The international community has denounced the US embargo because it

violates international law, and on moral, political and economic grounds.
Since Barack Obama took office as President of the USA in January 2009, there has
been an intense debate and numerous calls at the national and international level
for lifting the US embargo against Cuba. Unfortunately, within this debate there is
hardly any mention of the negative impact of the embargo on the human rights of
Cubans.
The embargo is an international embarrassment that should

end immediately
Mike Farrell, human rights advocate, Oct. 21, 11, The UN, the US Embargo, and the 20 year
rout; 10 Reasons to Oppose the Embargo, CubaCentral,
http://cubacentral.wordpress.com/2011/10/21/the-un-the-us-embargo-and-the-20-year-rout-10reasonsto-oppose-the-embargo/, ACC. 6-1-2013, JT//JEDI
The U.S. embargo of Cuba is an international embarrassment to a

country that continues to claim leadership in the realm of human rights. An
unnecessary and sickening relic of the Cold War, the embargo has become a
political football proving that elections and electoral votes mean more
to American politicians than fairness, justice, the human needs of the
Cuban people or the lives, health and education of Cuban children. It is a
monstrous example of the political cowardice that poisons this nation and
should be ended immediately.

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The world has spoken: The embargo is perceived as a violation
of international law that entrenches poverty
Voice of Russia, Nov. 14, 12, Russia hopes US may eventually lift Cuba embargo, ACC. 526-13,
http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_11_14/Russia-hopes-US-may-eventually-lift-the-blockade-of-Cuba/, JT//JEDI
The UN General Assembly has once again demanded that the United States
"in the shortest possible time" lift the commercial and financial embargo
against Cuba. The blockade was introduced 51 years ago and seriously
undermines the economy of the island.
186 UN member states have spoken out in support of the resolution; three
countries have voted against (including the U.S.), and two abstained.
The resolution calls on the international community to refrain in future from
destructive actions such as those taken by Washington against Cuba.
As emphasized in the document, these actions are contrary to countries
obligations under the UN Charter, and international law.
The entire world opposes the embargohurts U.S. soft power

Rubn G. Rumbaut, Oct. 21, 11, ENCASA/USCUBA University of California, Irvine, The UN, the
US Embargo, and the 20 year rout; 10 Reasons to Oppose the Embargo, CubaCentral,
The U.S. trade and travel embargo against Cuba is the longest in history,
and the most senseless and irredeemable. It is the act of a bully, based on pique.
It is an abysmal moral and political failure, diminishing not Cuba but the
U.S. in world opinion and respect. It has achieved the opposite of what it
has sought, hurting both the Cuban people as well as U.S. interests. The
embargo is opposed by virtually the entire world as well as large domestic
majorities, even Cuban exiles and dissidents; yet, the U.S. government persists
with its petty punitive policy, not out of reasoned principle but for internal
political posturing. The spectacle of the worlds largest economy and sole
superpower, seeking in vain for half a century to strangle a baseball-loving
small developing nation that dared to defy it, is a modern David and
Goliath story and no one loves Goliath.
The embargo undermines soft power and violates international

law
One of the lasting legacies of America's Cuba policy is that it isolates the
U.S. and represents stubbornness in the face of ineffectiveness. After the
2008 election the calls to change U.S. policy toward Cuba were echoed by
both allies and non-allies, including Brazil, n9 Colombia, n10 and Mexico, as well
as Venezuela n11 and Bolivia. n12 The European Union has also expressed its

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opposition to "the extraterritoriality extension of the United States

embargo." n13 Each year the UN considers a resolution condemning
America's economic embargo of Cuba, and each year the measure is
overwhelmingly adopted. In 2008 the vote was 184-4, meaning the U.S. policy to
isolate Cuba has had the ironic effect of isolating the United States. Additionally,
the travel ban may violate multiple articles of the Universal Declaration of
Human Rights, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,
and the Convention on the Rights of the Child. n14 Fortunately, for three
reasons, the opportunity is ripe for a fresh approach to this old problem.

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The embargo undermines soft power
John Adams, Brigadier General US Army (Retired), Oct. 21, 11, The UN, the US Embargo, and
the 20 year rout; 10 Reasons to Oppose the Embargo, CubaCentral,
The U.S. embargo against Cuba is a Cold War relic that hurts America and
Cuba by preventing normal trade and travel between our two countries. From
the perspective of U.S. national security, not only does the embargo prevent our
cooperation with Cuba on common security issues such as crime and terrorism, it
hurts U.S. standing throughout the world by highlighting our aggression
against a neighboring country that poses no threat. The United States
demeans itself by this futile and hypocritical policy. It is long past time to
repeal the U.S. embargo against Cuba.
Lifting the embargo bolsters U.S. credibility

Eugene P. Trani 13 ( president emeritus and University Distinguished Professor at
Virginia Commonwealth University.) 6.23.13 // sb
http://www.timesdispatch.com/opinion/their-opinion/columnists-blogs/guest-columnists/endthe-embargo-on-cuba/article_ba3e522f-8861-5f3c-bee9-000dffff8ce7.htm l
My own trip to Cuba reinforced the call for such actions. We spent four days
visiting with many different kinds of groups in Havana, community projects, senior
citizens, a health clinic, youth programs, artist and recording facilities, musical
ensembles, historic sites such as Revolution Square and the Ernest Hemingway
house and an environmental training facility, and not once did we hear anger
toward the United States or the American people. What we heard was
puzzlement about the embargo and strong feelings that it was hurting the
people of Cuba. In fact, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the
absolute poverty rate has increased significantly in Cuba. It was also evident
that there is visible decline in major infrastructure areas such as housing. Today,
there seem to be both humanitarian and economic factors, particularly with the
significant growth of the non-governmental section of the economy that could factor
in a change in American policy. There is also a major diplomatic factor in that no
other major country, including our allies, follows our policy. What a positive
statement for American foreign policy in Latin America and throughout the
world it would be for the United States to end its embargo and establish
normal diplomatic relations with Cuba. We would be taking both a
humanitarian course of action and making a smart diplomatic gesture. The
time is right and all our policy makers need is courage to bring about this
change.
Helms-Burton divides allies and poisons relations with the EU

Vsquez & Rodrguez, 12, Ian Vasquez, Dir. & L. Jacobo Rodriguez, Asst. Dir. of the
Project on Global Economic Liberty at the Cato Institute,

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/trade-embargo-castro-out, Trade Embargo In and Castro
Out, ACC. 6-2-2013, JT//JEDI

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The Helms-Burton Act seeks to discourage investment in Cuba by imposing

sanctions on foreign companies profiting from property confiscated by the
Castro regime. But fears that foreign investment there, which is much
lower than official Cuban figures claim, will save the communist system
from its inherent flaws are unfounded; significant capital flows to Cuba
will not occur unless and until the country introduces market reforms.
While the Helms-Burton Act may slow investment in Cuba, U.S. allies (in
particular, Canada, Mexico, and members of the European Union) have not
welcomed that coercive attempt to influence their foreign policy. Not
surprisingly, the European Union is contemplating retaliatory sanctions.
That confrontation risks poisoning U.S. relations with otherwise friendly
countries that are far more important than Cuba to the economic wellbeing and security of the United States. The stalemate also diverts attention,
both inside and outside Cuba, from the islands internal crisis.

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Sanctions on Cuba diminish US soft power around the globe
Griswold 00 (Daniel Griswold is the director of the Center for Trade Policy
Studies at the Cato Institute. Going alone on economic sanctions hurts US more
than foes November 27th, 2000;
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/going-alone-economic-sanctionshurts-us-more-foes?print //jw
Americas ongoing embargo against Cuba illustrates the failure of sanctions . When the United States
first imposed a comprehensive trade embargo in 1961, Cuba was conducting most of its trade with the United
States. Since then, sanctions have utterly failed to influence the government of Fidel Castro, which has used the
embargo to excuse its own policy failures and gain international sympathy. Although the embargo once enjoyed a
measure of international support, today no other nation stands behind it. The reason is obvious: nearly 40 years
after its imposition, the embargo has only hurt American companies and the Cuban people, while leaving the Castro
regime firmly entrenched with little prospect of change. The manifest failure of U.S. policy prompted Pope John Paul
II during his historic visit to Cuba in January 1998 to declare that sanctions are always deplorable, because they
Defenders of sanctions often cite South Africa as a success,

but sanctions were not the only reason apartheid fell; the fall of the Soviet
Union contributed to the climate of reform. Moreover, sanctions against South Africa differed
hurt the most needy.
from most U.S. sanctions today in two key respects. One, they were multilateral, while the large majority of
sanctions imposed by the United States since 1993 have been unilateral. Second, the apartheid government in
South Africa was answerable to a limited but still sizable electorate of about 5 million whites, which made the
government more sensitive to outside pressure. Given that multilateral sanctions against a semi-democratic
government were not sufficient to force change, it is virtually guaranteed that unilateral sanctions against a
dictatorship will fail.
U.S. influence around the world is strengthened by the
presence of American multinational companies. Foreign direct investment

is not only profitable for American shareholders; it also helps foster
greater economic growth in less-developed nations. American companies
introduce new technologies and production methods, while raising wages
and labor standards. That creation of wealth helps to advance social,
political, and economic institutions that are independent of the ruling
authorities . Companies engaged in long-term investments in Burma and elsewhere also help to build
schools, hospitals, and roads.
Helms-Burton Act and the Cuban Embargo directly hurt US Soft

Power
Tysha Bohorquez 12/1/05 Soft Power -The Means to Success in World Politics, UCLA International
http://www.international.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=34734 , ACC. 7/9/13, MRM
In the case of Cuba, the international community has been critical of the
United States especially since the passage of the Helms-Burton Act. The
Helms-Burton Act formalizes U.S. sanctions against Cuba. Its provisions include the
right to deny U.S. visas to executives, majority shareholders and their families of
companies that have invested in property that had belonged to US companies prior
to the Communist revolution. This has already been used against the Canadian
mining company Sherritt International. Canada, Mexico, France and Britain are
Institute,

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major investors in Cuba and are particularly angered by the legislation.

These key U.S. allies have accused the laws as an extraterritorial attempt
to bully sovereign nations into assuming a particular foreign policy
position. Canada and Mexico claim that the U.S. is in violation of both
NAFTA and the European Union. Both countries had threatened to bring
the case before the World Trade Organization before reaching a tenuous lastminute understanding." The European Union vows to fight Helms-Burton at
the World Trade Organization. This is another case where the U.S. has
acted unilaterally, damaging international relations. The type of unilateralism
demonstrated in the Helms-Burton Act emerges from the U.S. position of hegemon
in the post-Cold War era. However, the feasibility of U.S. unipolarity and hegemony
can be misleading because, in fact, for the world's power structure is complex and
multilayered. The United States has unprecedented military power, but economic
power is widely shared with Europe and East Asia. Within the realm of a booming
world of transnational relations, much lies outside Washington's control . When the
United States pursues a heavy-handed, unilateral foreign policy, it hastens
the demise of its preponderance and destroys its ability to shape the
global playing field.

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The embargo is a signal of U.S. ineffectiveness and undermines
soft power
Steve Clemons, Oct. 21, 11, Washington Editor-at-Large, The Atlantic, Senior Fellow & Founder,
American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, CubaCentral,
Failure of the U.S. to finally snuff out the last vestiges of the Cold War in
the U.S.-Cuba embargo signals impotence in American strategic vision and
capability. Those who support the embargo undermine the empowerment
of Cuban citizens, harming them economically and robbing them of choices
that could evolve through greater engagement exactly what we have seen
in transitioning Communist countries like Vietnam and China. The world is
dismayed and rejects yet again Americas nonsensical embargo, which
ultimately makes the U.S. look strategically muddled and petty rather
than a leader committed to improving the global order.
The Embargo kills our soft power

Rumbaut 11 (Rubn G., ENCASA/US- CUBA University of California, Irvine, The UN, the
US Embargo, and the 20year rout; 10 Reasons to Oppose the Embargo, CubaCentral,
October 21, 2011, // sb http://cubacentral.wordpress.com/2011/10/21/the-un-the-us-
embargo-and-the-20-year-rout-10-reasons-to-oppose-the-embargo/,
The U.S. trade and travel embargo against Cuba is the longest in history,
and the most senseless and irredeemable. It is the act of a bully, based on
pique. It is anabysmal moral and political failure, diminishing not Cuba but the
U.S. in world opinion and respect. It has achieved the opposite ofwhat it has
sought, hurting both the Cuban people aswell as U.S. interests. The embargo is
opposed by virtually the entire world as well as large domestic majorities,
even Cuban exilesand dissidents; yet, the U.S. government persists with its petty
punitive policy, not out of reasoned principle but for internal political posturing. The
spectacle of the worlds largesteconomy and sole superpower, seeking in
vain for half a century to strangle a baseball-loving small developing nation
that dared to defy it, is a modern David and Goliath story and no one
loves Goliath.

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SOFT POWER ADV. SOLVENCY

Resolving the Cuba conflict restores U.S. soft power credibility
There is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means

that it will face additional difficulty when trying to accomplish its regional
goals. n21 To address the issues confronting the United States vis-a-vis Latin
America (i.e., drugs, the environment, trade, labor and human rights),
Washington must restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place
as the region's trendsetter and leader. Resolving America's "Cuba
problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energy
and credibility into America's image. The Eight Recommendations found in this
proposal are suggestions that the Obama Administration should consider as it
moves to reengage Latin America. Part of America's greatness is its ability to inspire
practical solutions in people. Any new U.S.-Cuban policy should embrace not only
America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself, but also the pragmatism that has made
America so great to begin with.
Image repair is essential to bolster U.S. soft power in Latin

Americakey to coop
Just south of America's borders, a deepening polarization is spreading

throughout the entire region. In the last few years ideological allies in
Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela have written and approved new
constitutions that have consolidated the power of the executive, while
extending - or in Venezuela's case eliminating - presidential term limits. In
Venezuela the polarization has been drawn along economic lines, whereby Chavez's
base of support continues to be poor Venezuelans. In Bolivia the polarization has
been drawn along racial lines: the preamble to the new Bolivian constitution,
approved in January 2009, makes reference to the "disastrous colonial times," a
moment in history that Bolivians of Andean-descent particularly lament. Those
regions in Bolivia with the most people of European or mixed descent have
consistently voted for increased provincial autonomy and against the constitutional
changes proposed by President Morales. Perhaps due to its sweeping changes, the
new Constitution was rejected by four of Bolivia's nine provinces. n2 Like Bolivia,
Latin America is still searching for its identity.
Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying
combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the U nited
States last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America, and
although highly context-dependent, it is very likely that Latin American
citizens and their governments would view any overt display of American
hard power in the region negatively. n3 One can only imagine the fodder an
American military excursion into Latin America would provide for a leader like Hugo

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Chavez of Venezuela, or Evo Morales of Bolivia. Soft power, on the other hand,
can win over people and governments without resorting to coercion, but is
limited by other factors.
The key to soft power is not simply a strong military, though having one
helps, but rather an enduring sense of legitimacy that can then be
projected across the globe to advance particular policies. The key to this
legitimacy is a good image and a reputation as a responsible actor on the
global and regional stage. A good reputation and image can go a long way
toward generating goodwill, which ultimately will help the U.S. when it
tries to sell unpopular ideas and reforms in the region. n4
In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America, the U.S. must
repair its image by going on a diplomatic offensive and reminding, not just
Latin America's leaders, but also the Latin American people, of the important
relationship between the U.S. and Latin America. Many of the problems facing
Latin America today cannot be addressed in the absence of U.S. leadership
and cooperation. Working with other nations to address these challenges is the
best way to shore up legitimacy, earn respect, and repair America's image.
Although this proposal focuses heavily on Cuba, every country in Latin America is a
potential friend. Washington will have to not only strengthen its existing
relationships in the region, but also win over new allies, who look to us for
"ideas and solutions, not lectures." n5

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Lifting the embargo enhances U.S. soft power globally
Jeff Franks, Sept. 20, 12, Cuba says ending U.S. embargo would help both countries, ACC. 5-
26-2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/20/us-cuba-usa-embargo-idUSBRE88J15G20120920,
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(citing Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez)

"The blockade provokes suffering, shortages, difficulties that reach each Cuban
family, each Cuban child," Rodriguez said. He spoke at a press conference that
Cuba stages each year ahead of what has become an annual vote in the United
Nations on a resolution condemning the embargo. The vote is expected to
take place next month.
Last year, 186 countries voted for the resolution, while only the United
States and Israel supported the embargo, Rodriguez said.
Lifting the embargo would improve the image of the United States around
the world, he said, adding that it would also end what he called a "massive,
flagrant and systematic violation of human rights."
Removing the embargo fosters stability in Cuba and

significantly advances U.S. soft power
Jennifer Gerz-Escandon, Ph.D., International Relations and former professor of political science
at Lynn University, October 9, 8, End the US-Cuba embargo: It's a win-win, Christian Science
Monitor, ACC. 6-1-2013, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2008/1009/p09s02-coop.html,

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by ending the embargo, the US simultaneously gains security

through stability in
Cuba. More important, by investing in the future prototype for emerging markets a 42,803-square-mile green energy and
For its part,
technology lab called Cuba America gains a dedicated partner in the search for energy independence. Finally, a key component of
renewing relations is ending illicit emigration. At issue is the 1966 Cuban Adj ustment Act, amended in 1995. It encourages
disaffected Cubans to risk their lives for the reward of an expedited path to US citizenship upon reaching American soil. They also
receive immediate access to a work permit and the ability to acquire residency in one year. A 2002 article from The Miami Herald
reported that 1 in 20 Cubans being smuggled to the shores of the United States dies in the attempt. Meanwhile, smugglers collect
up to $10,000 a person.
Retiring the "wet-foot, dry -foot" policy and normalizing immigration laws could stop the Cuban brain drain, end charges of a US
immigration double standard, and save hundreds of millions of dollars for the US taxpayers who must fund four different agencies to
implement this policy. Supporters of the embargo say it serves as an important symbolic protest of Cuba's deplorable human rights
constructive engagement with the

reform-ready regime of Mr. Castro utilizing a framework based on mutual
economic interests similar to US-China relations could give observers
more cause for optimism. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's willingness to speak openly with Newsweek/CNN
journalist Fareed Zakaria last month about democratization is evidence of progress. While phasing out the
Cuban embargo won't render a quick solution to fractured US-Cuba
relations or end the evaporation of esteem the US is suffering throughout Latin America, it would mark a
significant achievement of hemispheric leadership on a divisive issue. By
ending the embargo, the US may learn that under the right circumstances,
the soft power of diplomacy proves more effective in reshaping America's
perception in Latin Ame rica than the hard power of economic isolation
ever did.
record and its lack of political, civil, and economic freedoms. Yet

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Removing the Cuban Embargo will boost our soft power
Brandon Amash 12 Contributing Writer July 23, 2012 // sb
http://prospectjournal.org/2012/07/23/evaluating-the-cuban-embargo/
Instead of continued economic sanctions on Cuba, the United States
should reopen diplomatic relations with Cuba, work multilaterally and use
soft power to promote democracy and greater attention to human rights.
This policy approach will decrease the hostility between the United States and Cuba,
andcause Cuba to be more willing to participate internationally with attention to
human rights violations. After the end of the Cold War, United States foreign
policy has found new directions, and the embargo, as a relic of a different
time, must be removed should the United States wish to gain any true
ground in promoting human rights in Cuba.
Engaging Cuba leads to better relations and increases U.S. soft

power
Internationally, the world is nearly unanimous in its opposition to the U nited

States policy towards Cuba. In fact, on 28 October 2009, the United Nations General
Assembly voted on a non-binding resolution to lift the embargo with 187 votes in
favor of the resolution, three votes against (the United States, Israel, and Palau) and
two abstentions (Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands). 29 The
nearly universal unpopularity of this policy takes away from the soft
power of the United States and is an obstacle to the bilateral relations between
the United States and numerous other nations.
The United States requires a policy that will lead to better relations between the
United States and Cuba, increase the soft power of the United States in the Latin
American world, and pull the Cuban government towards a more
representative form of governance. These conditions will contribute to the
national security of the United States as well as to the western hemisphere. So with
this in mind, what are our likely options?
Lifting the embargo boosts U.S. soft power and allows us to

influence post-Castro reforms
The window of opportunity is open now for this type of change. The Obama
administration has taken some steps in this direction with the lifting of remittance
limits, unlimited visits to relatives in Cuba, and the ability to provide cell phones to
relatives in Cuba. The other recent change is the new majority of CubanAmericans, in Florida, that support removal of the embargo. Based on votes in
the United Nations and the European Union it is clear that world opinion would

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definitely be supportive of this action. The combination of the above mentioned

events now points to an opportunity to make real progress that will benefit both
nations. The U States would gain in soft power, gain an additional economic
trading partner, and have a chance to influence the type of changes in the
Cuban government as the Castro influence wanes. Clearly, support to the
Cuban people will indirectly provide support to the Cuban government, but that
could work against the regime as well if the people realize that improvements in
their living conditions are not the result of communism, but from the interaction
with the capitalist world.
nited

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SOFT POWER ADV. IMPACT EXT.

Only strong U.S. soft power can garner the necessary
cooperation to solve global problems, such as economic
competitiveness, terrorism, war, disease, human trafficking,
and drugs
Joshua Kurlantzick, 5, visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowments China
Program and a fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council
on International Policy, The Decline of American Soft Power, Dec. 2005, Current
History, Vol. 104, Issue 686; pg. 419.
A broad decline in soft power has many practical implications. These
include the drain in foreign talent coming to the United States, the potential
backlash against American companies, the growing attractiveness of
China and Europe, and the possibility that anti-US sentiment will make it
easier for terrorist groups to recruit. In addition, with a decline in soft power,
Washington is simply less able to persuade others. In the run-up to the Iraq War, the Bush
administration could not convince Turkey, a longtime US ally, to play a major staging role, in part because America's image in Turkey
was so poor. During the war itself, the United States has failed to obtain significant participation from all but a handful of major
nations, again in part because of America's negative image in countries ranging from India to Germany. In attempts to persuade
North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons, Washington has had to allow China to play a central role, partly because few Asian
states view the United States as a neutral, legitimate broker in the talks. Instead, Washington must increasingly resort to the other
option. Nye discusses-force, or the threat of force. With foreign governments and publics suspicious of American policy, the White
House has been unable to lead a multinational effort to halt Iran's nuclear program, and instead has had to resort to threatening
sanctions at the United Nations or even the possibility of strikes against Iran.
With America's image

declining in nations like Thailand and Pakistan, it is harder for leaders in these
countries to openly embrace counterterrorism cooperation with the United
States, so Washington resorts to quiet arm-twisting and blandishments to obtain
counterterror concessions. Force is not a long-term solution. Newer,
nontraditional security threats such as disease, human trafficking, and
drug trafficking can only be managed through forms of multilateral
cooperation that depend on America's ability to persuade other nations.
Terrorism itself cannot be defeated by force alone, a fact that even the White
House recognizes. The 2002 National security Strategy emphasizes that winning the
war on terror requires the United States to lead a battle of ideas against the
ideological roots of terrorism, in addition to rooting out and destroying individual
militant cells.
Hard Power isnt enough - Soft power is essential to stop

terrorism
AP, 11/26/7, Defense chief: Fight terrorism with soft power, MSNBC,
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/21980961/#.UdyE2vmTj0Y, ACC. 7/9/13, MRM
Defeating terrorism will require the use of more soft power, with civilians
contributing more in communication, economic assistance, political development
and other non-military areas, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Monday. Gates
called for the creation of new government organizations, including a permanent
group of civilian experts with a wide range of expertise who could be sent abroad on
short notice as a supplement to U.S. military efforts. And he urged more

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involvement by university and other private experts. We must focus our

energies beyond the guns and steel of the military, beyond just our brave
soldiers, sailors, Marines and airmen, he said in a speech at Kansas State
University in Manhattan, Kan. We must also focus our energies on the other
elements of national power that will be so crucial in the coming years. He
said the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as U.S. military involvement in the
1990s in the Balkans and in Somalia, have shown that long-term success
requires more than U.S. military power.

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SOFT POWER ADV. no coop

The embargo continually degrades US soft power, which
prevents LA cooperation
For fifty years the Castro regime has ruled Cuba with an iron fist. In response, for
nearly fifty years, the United States has tried to isolate Cuba, politically and
economically. This policy has failed to achieve any discernible policy end,
and has actually helped isolate the United States from the rest of the world.
Moreover, America's hostile relationship with Cuba has become a symbolic
rallying cry for an emerging class of Latin American leaders determined to
convert anti-American sentiments into electoral victories. As a result,
America's image has suffered, as has its ability to influence a region so
intricately tied to its economic and national security interests. This report
provides a starting point for dialogue with the Cuban government, which could
eventually be used as a stepping-stone towards the normalization of relations.
Additionally, this report attempts to accomplish another end: the fostering of a
dialogue amongst policymakers in America who are ready and willing to listen to
new ideas and a fresh approach.

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LATIN AMERICAN RELATIONS ADV.

US-Latin American relations are at a breaking pointfailure to
act now guarantees long term collapse of cooperation
Shifter 12president of the Inter-American Dialogue
Michael, REMAKING THE RELATIONSHIP: The United States and Latin America
[http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf]
April //mtc
If the United States and Latin America do not make the effort now, the chance may slip away. The
most likely scenario then would be marked by a con-tinued drift in their relationship, further
deterioration of hemisphere-wide institutions, a reduced ability and willingness to deal with a
range of common problems, and a spate of missed opportunities for more robust growth and greater social
equity. The United States and Latin America would go their separate ways, manage their affairs
independently of one another, and forego the opportunities that could be harvested by a more
productive relationship. There are risks of simply maintaining the status quo. Urgent problems
will inevitably arise that require trust and effective collaboration to resolve. And there is a chance that
tensions between the United States and Latin America could become much worse, adversely
affecting everyones interests and well- being. It is time to seize the moment and overhaul
hemispheric relations.
Abolishing the embargo boosts U.S. relations throughout Latin

America
James Early, Oct. 21, 11, Board of Trustees, Institute for Policy Studies and Director of Cultural
Heritage Policy, Smithsonian Center for Folklife and Cultural Heritage , The UN, the US Embargo, and
the 20 year rout; 10 Reasons to Oppose the Embargo, CubaCentral,
The embargo isolates and weakens U.S. policy makers and U.S. policies at
a time of increasing integration between Latin America and the Caribbean
and the global south. U.S. citizens are denied ready access to highly praised
Cuban achievements in the arts and culture, education, medical and technological
advances, and deprived of sustained engagements with Cuban citizens and the
Cuban government to share our national virtues. It is time that our policy
makers support the resolve of its citizens and joins the majority of nations
in non-antagonistic diplomatic protocols with Cuba by abolishing the
embargo and normalizing relations with Cuba.
Better relations with Cuba is lynchpin to building Latin

American cooperation on all major international issues
Third, the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril. Latin
America's importance to the United States is growing by the day , and cannot
be overstated. While the issue of U.S.-Cuba relations is obviously of
smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i.e.,
the ailing economy, climate change, proliferation of w eapons of m ass d estruction),

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addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those

issues, but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by
making regional cooperation more likely . n20 In order to confront any of
the major world issues facing the United States, Washington must find a way to
cooperate with its neighbors, who generally view U.S. policy toward Cuba
as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively
engage the region. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the
extent that a healthy U.S.-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U.S.Latin America relationship, the former should be pursued with an
unprecedented vigor, one that has been absent for the last fifty years.

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LATIN AMERICAN RELATIONS ADV.

TWO INTERNAL LINKS TO EXTINCTION:
A. Warming
Tickell 8 (Oliver Tickell, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, August 11, 2008, On a planet 4C hotter, all we
can prepare for is extinction, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the
Guardian last week. At first sight this looks like wise counsel from the climate
science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is
absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a
catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal words that Chief Seattle probably
never spoke , "the end of living and the beginning of survival" for
humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our extinction. The collapse of the
polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringing long-term sea level rises of 70-80
metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete with ports, cities,
transport and industrial infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive
farmland. The world's geography would be transformed much as it was at the end of
the last ice age, when sea levels rose by about 120 metres to create the Channel,
the North Sea and Cardigan Bay out of dry land. Weather would become
extreme and unpredictable, with more frequent and severe droughts,
floods and hurricanes. The Earth's carrying capacity would be hugely
reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.
B. PROLIF
Victor Utgoff, 2
Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for
Defense Analysis, SURVIVAL, Fall, 2002, p. 87-90
In sum, widespread proliferation is likely to lead to an occasional shoot-
out with nuclear weapons, and that such shoot-outs will have a
substantial probability of escalating to the maximum destruction
possible with the weapons at hand. Unless nuclear proliferation is stopped,
we are headed toward a world that will mirror the American Wild West of
the late 1800s. With most, if not all, nations wearing nuclear 'six-shooters' on their
hips, the world may even be a more polite place than it is today, but every once in a
while we will all gather on a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or
even whole nations.

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LA RELATIONS ADV. CUBA KEY

Cuba is the lynchpin of U.S.-Latin American relations. The plan
gets the entire hemisphere on board for coop
Sweig 9 (Julia Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and
Director) 2.5.09 //sb, ACC. 7/5/2013

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,2194,00.
html
In the Western Hemisphere, U.S. policy toward Cuba is universally derided as
ineffectual and an obstacle to the emergence of a more open, pluralistic
society on the island. An opening toward Cuba will be quietly encouraged
and loudly applauded by major U.S. allies in the region, such as Argentina,
Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia and Mexico,each of which possesses extensive
ties to the island and is paying close attention to developments in Cuba during this
50th anniversary year of the revolution. Havana's brashly ideological allies in
the regionBolivia, Nicaragua and, notably, Venezuelawill find a big
argument in their brief against the United States (i.e. Goliath's penchant for
picking on David) substantially undercut. The dozen or so small island countries
of the Caribbean, meanwhile, most of which vote with Venezuela and Cuba at the
Organization of American States and the United Nations will have cause for
reconsidering this practice. Beyond Latin America, Fidel Castro and Che Guevara
remain cult heroes for many. Despite its human rights violations, Cuba's leadership
has earned grudging respect among multiple generations of intellectuals and
political leaders for its social gains and for its continued defiance of Washington. In
Europe in particular, U.S. sanctions have earned the ire of many for casting
their punitive reach on potential business and investment with Cuba. After
a five-year freeze, and under the leadership of Spain's prime minister, Jos Luis
Zapatero, the European Union has recently lifted economic sanctions and
commenced a broad ranging dialogue on civil and political as well as social and
cultural rights. A fresh approach to Cuba will send a signal that the era of American
hubris in foreign affairs, at least in its own neck of the woods, may well be coming
to an end. A significant dimension of the collapse of America's standing globally
during the Bush years was that the United States was willing to use its power willynilly without a healthy degree of respect for the views of others, as the Constitution
commends. For more than 15 years, the U.N. General Assembly has voted nearly
unanimously in support of a Cuban resolution condemning the American embargo
against it. Owning up to the failures of this policy and sending a clear signal
of a new approach will gain ready plaudits from our allies, whose help we
will need in confronting real, rather than manufactured and domestically driven,
national security challenges.
Cuba is a keystone of U.S. relations. Better relations with

Cuba is the lynchpin for U.S. influence across Latin America

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When analyzing ecosystems, environmental scientists seek out "keystone

species." These are organisms that, despite their small size, function as
lynchpins for, or barometers of, the entire system's stability. Cuba, despite its
size and isolation, is a keystone nation in Latin America, having
disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward the region for
decades. n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana, America's
reputation in the region has suffered, as has its ability to deal with other
countries. n7 For fifty years, Latin American governments that hoped to endear
themselves to the U.S. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test." But now the tables have
turned, and the Obama Administration, if it wants to repair America's image
in the region, will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. n8 In short,
America must once again be admired if we are going to expect other
countries to follow our example. To that end, warming relations with Cuba
would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America, and would go
a long way toward creating goodwill.

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LA RELATIONS ADV. CUBA KEY

The embargo has failed and is the biggest divide in US-Latin
American relations
Michael Shifter, 12, Pres. of the Inter-American Dialogue, Remaking the Relationship: The
United States and Latin America, An IAD Policy Report,

http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, ACC. 6-6-2013, JT//JEDI
Cuba, too, poses a significant challenge for relations between the United States
and Latin America. The 50-year-old US embargo against Cuba is rightly
criticized throughout the hemisphere as a failed and punitive instrument.
It has long been a strain on US-Latin American relations. Although the United
States has recently moved in the right direction and taken steps to relax
restrictions on travel to Cuba, Washington needs to do far more to
dismantle its severe, outdated constraints on normalized relations with
Cuba. Cuba is one of the residual issues that most obstructs more
effective US-Latin American engagement.
Removing economic sanctions against Cuba would increase

relations across Latin American countries.
Richard G. Lugar 9, CHANGING CUBA POLICYIN THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL
INTEREST FEBRUARY 23, 2009 //sb http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/senate ,
ACC. 7/5/2013
Cuba is important for the United States because of proximity, intertwined history,
and culture. Cuba is important in Latin America because it is a romanticized symbol
of a small country that stood up to the most powerful country in the world. The
Cuban Revolution legitimizes some of the passions that fuel the outrage that many
Latin Americans feel regarding the inequality of their own societies, and for 50
years, rightly or wrongly, Cuba has ably portrayed itself as having fought this fight
for them, as well as for the downtrodden around the world. During the visit, a Cuban
official stated to staff that U.S. foreign policy towards Latin America goes
through Cuba. With the end of the Cold War, however, the GOC does not
represent the security threat to the U.S. that it once did. The USG still has
significant grievances with the GOCmostly, its human rights practices and the
stifling of political pluralism and property rights as well as the lack of adequate
compensation for expropriated assets of U.S. firms and individuals. The remaining
security issues, on the other hand, are limited to the potential for a migration crisis
provoked by political or economic instability on the island. While Cubas alliance
with Venezuela has intentions of influencing regional affairs, the GOC has not been
positioned to ably export its Revolution since the collapse of the Soviet Union forced
an end to Cubas financial support for Latin American guerrilla movements. The
GOCs program of medical diplomacy, which exports doctors to developing
countries, bolsters the islands soft power, but does not represent a significant
threat to U.S. national security. Given current economic challenges, any revenue
gained from economic engagement with the United States would likely be used for
internal economic priorities, not international activism. [] Reform of U.S.-Cuban

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relations would also benefit our regional relations. Certain Latin American leaders,
whose political appeal depends on the propagation of an array of anti-Washington
grievances, would lose momentum as a centerpiece of these grievances is removed.
More significantly, Latin Americans would view U.S. engagement with Cuba
as a demonstration that the United States understands their perspectives
on the history of U.S. policy in the region and no longer insists that all of
Latin America must share U.S. hostility to a 50-year-old regime. The
resulting improvement to the United States image in the region would
facilitate the advancement of U.S. interests.
Ending the embargo revives US relations throughout the

region
Joshua Goodman 9 (Assistant Professor in Public Policy Harvard) 4.19.09 // sb
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=newsarchive&sid=a0_zyWMi297I&refer=uk
When Barack Obama arrives at the fifth Summit of the Americas this week,
Cuba will be at the heart of the U.S. relationship with the rest of the
hemisphere, exactly as it has been for half a century. While Latin American
leaders split on many issues, they agree that Obama should lift the 47-year-old U.S.
trade embargo on Cuba. From Venezuelan socialist Hugo Chavez to Mexicos probusiness Felipe Calderon, leaders view a change in policy toward Cuba as
a starting point for reviving U.S. relations with the region, which are at
their lowest point in two decades.

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LA RELATIONS ADV. INTERNAL LINK EXT.

Our current Cuba policy is a failure that divides allies in the
region. The time is right to lift the embargo
The United States policy towards Cuba over the past fifty years has not produced
the intended results. The United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at a
recent Digital Town Hall of the Americas in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
responded to a question about the Cuban embargo that, both she and President
Obama view the United States policy toward Cuba as a failure.2 It would seem
logical that a completely new policy towards Cuba should be developed, and
I propose that now is the right time for this to happen. On 17 April 2009, in his
opening remarks at the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago, President
Obama stated that the United States seeks a new beginning with Cuba.3 Although
Cuba was not on the summit agenda, nor was Cuba invited to attend the gathering
of 34 democratically elected leaders, it was important that the President put out this
marker. United States allies in Latin America and Europe have not supported the
Cuban policy for many years, with most deciding to go against American
policy and establish diplomatic and trade relations on a bilateral basis.
Support in Congress is waning, and the majority of the Cuban-American
population in Florida now favors removing the embargo. It is in our
national interest to change our policy towards Cuba in order to improve
our international relations, open up economic opportunities, and use
positive actions to influence our communist neighbor to the south in order
to better achieve our national security goals as they pertain to the
Americas. So how did we get to this point? It is time for some history.
Lack of U.S. economic engagement with Latin America divides

political relations
Robbie Fergusson 12, Researcher at Royal Society for the Arts, Featured
Contributor at International Business Times, Former Conference & Research
Assistant at Security Watch, Former Researcher at University College London,
Master of Science, China in the International Arena, The University of Glasgow, The
Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine, http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/doeschinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/, ACC. 6-7-2013,
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The U.S is still the most important economic partner for Latin America, but
recently many in the region have felt neglected by Washington, whose
focus on terrorism and the middle east and rigid U.S. foreign policy
toward Latin America has left regional leaders with no option but to look
for other patrons. Net foreign direct investment in Latin America has fallen from
$78 billion in 2000 to $36 billion in 2003. [71] This economic neglect is

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exacerbating the political grievances of the likes of Hugo Chavez, but the more
moderate social democratic governments of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, recently
extended the designation of Market Economy Status (MES) to China, something the
U.S and the E.U have still denied. MES substantially diminishes the effect of antidumping legislation under World Trade Organization rules. Given the preponderance
of non-market factors in the P.R.C.s economy there can be little doubt that the
three countries made their decision almost exclusively on the basis of Chinas
growing political and economic influence. [72] This highlights the politico-economic
independence of the U.S that Latin America is exerting.

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LA RELATIONS ADV. IMPACT EXT.

Stronger U.S.-L.A. relations prevent prolif. & foster
cooperation on climate change, democracy and human rights
Delay only makes it more difficult
Michael Shifter, 12, Pres. of the Inter-American Dialogue, Remaking the Relationship: The
United States and Latin America, An IAD Policy Report,
http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, ACC. 6-6-2013, JT//JEDI
There are compelling reasons for the United States and Latin America to pursue
more robust ties.
Every country in the Americas would benefit from strengthened and
expanded economic relations, with improved access to each others markets,
investment capital, and energy resources. Even with its current economic problems,
the United States $16-trillion economy is a vital market and source of capital
(including remittances) and technology for Latin America, and it could
contribute more to the regions economic performance. For its part, Latin Americas
rising economies will inevitably become more and more crucial to the United States
economic future. The United States and many nations of Latin America and the
Caribbean would also gain a great deal by more cooperation on such
global matters as climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, and
democracy and human rights. With a rapidly expanding US Hispanic population
of more than 50 million, the cultural and demographic integration of the United
States and Latin America is proceeding at an accelerating pace, setting a firmer
basis for hemispheric partnership.
Despite the multiple opportunities and potential benefits, relations
between the United States and Latin America remain disappointing. If new
opportunities are not seized, relations will likely continue to drift apart.
The longer the current situation persists, the harder it will be to reverse
course and rebuild vigorous cooperation. Hemispheric affairs require urgent
attentionboth from the United States and from Latin America and the Caribbean.

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LA RELATIONS ADV. Warming Real

Warming is real and happening now
Alex Morales - Jul 3, 2013 6:00 AM CT Bloomberg "UN Charts Unprecedented
Global Warming Since 2000" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-03/uncharts-unprecedented-global-warming-since-2000.html
The planet has warmed faster since the turn of the century than ever
recorded, almost doubling the pace of sea-level increase and causing a 20fold jump in heat-related deaths, the United Nations said. The decade
through 2010 was the warmest for both hemispheres and for land and sea,
the UNs World Meteorological Organization said today in an e-mailed report
examining climate trends for the beginning of the millennium. Almost 94 percent
of countries logged their warmest 10 years on record, it said. The
decadal rate of increase between 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 was
unprecedented, WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said in a statement.
Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing
our climate, with far-reaching implications for our environment and our
oceans. The report underlines the challenge the globe faces in containing
temperature gains since industrialization to the 2-degree Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit)
ceiling set by UN climate-treaty negotiators. The planet is on course to warm by
4 degrees by 2100 because emissions are still rising, the World Bank says.
Deaths from heatwaves surged to 136,000 in the 10-year period from fewer
than 6,000 the previous decade, mainly a result of extreme temperatures in Europe
in 2003 and in Russiain 2010, according to the WMO. A total of 511 disasters
related to tropical cyclones killed 170,000 people and caused $380 billion
of economic damage. Deaths from storms and floods fell.Preparation Needed
Given that climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense
heatwaves, we need to be prepared, Jarraud said. Despite the significant
decrease in casualties due to severe storms and flooding, the WMO report
highlighted an alarming impact on health and mortality rates caused by
the European and Russian heatwaves. The average global temperature
for 2001-2010 was 14.47 degrees Celsius, according to the report. Thats 0.21
degree warmer than 1991-2000 and 0.79 degree warmer than 1881-1890.
The increase was recorded even without any major El Nino event during
the decade, the WMO said. El Nino is a periodic warming of waters in the Pacific that
pushes up global temperatures. Sea levels rose at 3 millimeters (0.12 inch) a
year, almost double the 20th-century rate of 1.6 millimeters a year. Seas
rise as warmer temperatures cause the water to expand and ice sheets in
Greenland and Antarctica and alpine glaciers around the world melt. Record seaice melt in the Arctic Ocean doesnt raise seas because the ice already
rests on the ocean.

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LA RELATIONS ADV. Warming Real

Warming is real- heat weaves, droughts, storms and floods
Associated Press "Global warming picks up pace" Mon, 08 Jul 20 13 12:45p.m.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Global-warming-picks-uppace/tabid/1160/articleID/304176/Default.aspx
Global warming accelerated since the 1970s and broke more countries'
temperature records than ever before in the first decade of the new
millennium, UN climate experts said Wednesday.
A new analysis from the World Meteorological Organization says average land and
ocean surface temperatures from 2001 to 2010 rose above the previous decade,
and were almost a half-degree Celsius above the 1961-1990 global average.
The decade ending in 2010 was an unprecedented era of climate extremes,
the agency said, evidenced by heat waves in Europe and Russia, droughts in
the Amazon Basin, Australia and East Africa, and huge storms like Tropical
Cyclone Nargis and Hurricane Katrina.
Data from 139 nations show that droughts like those in Australia, East
Africa and the Amazon Basin affected the most people worldwide. But it
was the hugely destructive and deadly floods such as those in Pakistan,
Australia, Africa, India and Eastern Europe that were the most frequent
extreme weather events.
Experts say a decade is about the minimum length of time to study when it
comes to spotting climate change.
From 1971 to 2010, global temperatures rose by an average rate of 0.17degC per
decade. But going back to 1880, the average increase was .062 percentdegC per
decade.
The pace also picked up in recent decades. Average temperatures were
0.21degC warmer this past decade than from 1991 to 2000, which were in
turn 0.14degC warmer than from 1981 to 1990.
Natural cycles between atmosphere and oceans make some years cooler
than others, but during the past decade there was no major event
associated with El Nino, the phenomenon characterised by unusually warm
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Much of the decade was affected
by the cooling La Nina, which comes from unusually cool temperatures
there, or neutral conditions.
Given those circumstances, WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud says the data
doesn't support the notion among some in the scientific community of a slowdown,
or lull, in the pace of planetary warming in recent years.
"The last decade was the warmest, by a significant margin," he said. "If
anything we should not talk about the plateau, we should talk about the
acceleration."
Jarraud says the data show warming accelerated between 1971 and 2010, with the
past two decades increasing at rates never seen before amid rising

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concentrations of industrial gases that trap heat in the atmosphere like a

greenhouse.
By the end of 2010, the report shows, atmospheric concentrations of some of
the chief warming gases from fossil fuel burning and other human actions
were far higher than at the start of the industrial era in 1750. Carbon
dioxide concentrations measured in the air around the world rose 39
percent since then; methane rose 158 percent; and nitrous oxide was up
20 percent.

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LA RELATIONS ADV. Warming Impacts
Warming causes extinction

Tickell 8 (Oliver Tickell, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, August 11, 2008, On a planet 4C hotter, all we
can prepare for is extinction, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week. At first sight
this looks like wise counsel from the climate science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we could adapt to a
4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a

catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal words that Chief Seattle probably never spoke ,
"the end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our
extinction. The collapse of the polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringing long-term sea level rises of 70-80
metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete with ports, cities, transport and industrial
infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive farmland. The world's geography would be transformed
much as it was at the end of the last ice age, when sea levels rose by about 120 metres to create the Channel, the
North Sea and Cardigan Bay out of dry land. Weather would become extreme and
unpredictable, with more frequent and severe droughts, floods and

hurricanes. The Earth's carrying capacity would be hugely reduced. Billions would
undoubtedly die.

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CHINA ADV.
The plan shores up US-Cuban relations---that boosts US
influence in Latin America and crowds out Chinese expansion
Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro 6, Report for the Cuban Research Institute,
Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of

Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic
Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association,
The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,
http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf, ACC. 6-62013, JT//JEDI
Given that there are no formal diplomatic of economic relations between the
governments of the United States and Cuba, the level of interest has grown significantly in the 3 years due primarily to
three reasons in the following interest areas: energy security interests; broader regional strategic; and purely economic interests. First, the energy security
interests in the potential of Cuban oil although it really would not minimize the immediacy of an American energy crisis is seen as possible if only
partial remedy to energy supply concerns. Second, as Cuba, in part because of the increasing number of oil partnerships furthers its diplomatic and
economic ties to with countries like Venezuela, China, Brazil and members of the European Union it may prove to provide Cuba for a sufficient buffer
there is a de facto
trend in the Americas that clearly disavows and attempts to minimize the
influence of the United States in the region, and with the growing demands on
the world economy by China, it stands to reason that Cuba may assume an
increasing stature that almost potentially lessens the presence of American
influence in Cuban and hence regional affairs. Finally, and as demonstrated by the presence of American oil interests in
against U.S. opposition as it solidifies it economic and diplomatic role in the region. This is important inasmuch as
the February 2006 U.S.- Cuban Energy Summit in Mexico City, there may be interest in cooperating in joint venture projects, and by extension assisting in the long-term development in
Cubas oil industry. To accomplish this task the report seeks to lay out some national security policy considerations applying strategic thought to what I will term Post-Oil Cuba a
Cuba that has a small but vibrant and growing oil and gas production capacity with extensive relations with a number of partners, and an increasingly positive outlook toward addressing
energy and economic development questions that have plagued the Castro regime since the Cuban Revolution.3 The primary consideration is to determine the present state of Cuban
energy and what possibilities exist that would be available to American foreign policy decision makers and business interests as the relations with Cuba evolve over the coming years.4
This is important because any realistic appraisal of how Cuba is to take advantage of its oil bonanza involves the United States. Previous research in this area has clearly laid out the
scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes in the period since the demise of Cubas favorable trade arrangements with the former Soviet Union. Recently, and as a
result of the oil discovery and Cubas energy arrangement with the government of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela there is renewed interest in Havanas energy policies. Most of that analysis
has been focused on concrete possibilities where there can be cooperation in the energy field between these two neighbors. Specifically, the work has looked at areas for the
convergence of energy interests as they apply to the near- and long-term energy development scenarios facing both countries. Myers Jaffe and Soligo have addressed this possibility by
looking at the potential to increase diversification and dispersion of energy resources. This is an important consideration when one takes into consideration that well over one-third of all
oil refining capacity resides on or near the Houston shipping channel. The potential negative impact on Americas refining capacity following Hurricane Rita5 made a significant
impression on oil industry analysts for the necessity of diversifying the location of these vital national resources. The potential of viewing Cuba as a staging area for American oil
storage and refining is plausible because of the proximity of the island. The also becomes more attractive because of the growing climatic concerns over the uncertain security of oil
resources in the Gulf region as clearly demonstrated by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. While it is true that Venezuela has initiated an investment of $1 billion dollars to bring the
Cienfuegos refinery online, there are still many other possibilities open and available to American companies, as well as a growing number of foreign firms.6 Additionally, Venezuela
remains the fourth largest importer of oil to the United States and one can surmise that the existing trade arrangements between the U.S. and Venezuela will remain intact, the evolution
of the Bolivarian revolution under Chavez and a growing Chinese presence in the region notwithstanding. Additionally, pursuing such a path would allow United States policymakers to
take advantage of what Cuba has to offer in the following areas: domestic technical capabilities; continuing human capital development; strategic positioning in the Caribbean, and an
improved diplomatic stature. Cuba, by any measure, possesses a largely untapped technical capacity owing to advanced training and education in the core mathematic and scientific
areas. This was clearly demonstrated by its attempt to develop a nuclear energy capability in the 1980s and 1990s whereby thousands of Cubans pursued highly technical career paths
leaving Cuba with among the highest ratios of scientists and engineers to the general population in all of the Americas. Moreover, the foundation of Cubas vaunted public education
system remains intact and increased investment under various scenarios suggests that Cuba will continue to produce a welleducated workforce that will be critical to its future economic
Cuba remains the

strategically important state by virtue of its geographical location alone,
in efforts against drug and human trafficking and related national and
regional security matters. The extent to which a stable Cuban government
has cooperated with the U.S. in drug interdiction efforts in the past
suggests that the results from improved diplomatic relations between
neighbors would have the effect of improving national security concerns
related to terrorist activity, illicit weapons transfers and the like.
Ultimately, a successful normalization of relations between the U.S. and Cuba
in these areas may well enhance and stabilize regional relations that could
possibly lessen (or at a minimum, balancing) fears of a Chinese incursion in
hemispheric affairs. To lessen those fears it may be useful to review the present structure of joint-venture projects in the energy
vitality. This raises an important consideration that being the role that Cuba will play in the region in the 21st century. It suffices to say that
sector in Cuba to ascertain the feasibility and possible success of such an undertaking become available to American firms. Moreover, it is interesting to
note that U.S. firms in the agriculture sector have successfully negotiated and consummated sales to Cuba totaling more than $1 billion dollars over the
past four years under conditions that are less than optimal circumstances but have well-served the commercial interests of all parties involved.

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CHINA ADV.
Allowing Chinese influence in Latin America to grow causes
Taiwan war sponsored by the U.S.

JT//JEDI
Chinas goals in the region amount to more than the capture of natural
resources. Although the Peoples Republic of China considers resolution of
the Taiwan issue to be a domestic issue, it is with some irony that one of
Chinas main foreign policy goals is to isolate Taipei internationally . The
PRC and the ROC compete directly for international recognition among all
the states in the world. . Nowhere is this more evident than in Latin America,
where 12 of the 23 nations that still have official diplomatic relations with
the ROC reside.
The historical background
Following the mainland Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the nationalist Kuomintang retreated to the island of Formosa (Taiwan) where
it continued to claim to be the legitimate government of all of China. In June 1950 the United States intervened by placing its 7th fleet in the Taiwan straits
to stop a conclusive military resolution to the civil war and slowly the battlefield became primarily political, concerned with legitimacy. When the United
Nations was formed in 1945, the Republic of China (ROC) became one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. This gave the ROC a de
facto advantage over the PRC in attaining recognition from other nation states; particularly as the diplomatic clout of the hegemonic United States
supported its position as the true representative of the Chinese people, until the rapprochement of the 1970s, when the Nixon administration wished to
improve ties with the de facto rulers of China in order to exploit the Sino-Soviet split. UN Resolution 2758 granted the China seat to the PRC at the
expense of the ROC who were in effect exiled from the organization, and the famous 1972 visit of President Nixon to China further added legitimacy to the
communist regime. All this resulted in a thawing of world opinion, and gradually as the durability and permanence of the PRC regime became ingrained,
countries began switching their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.
The economics of international recognition
In the Americas, the PRC had international recognition and longstanding support from ideological allies such as Cuba. However,
the ROC has maintained more diplomatic support in the Americas than any
other region, mainly due to the small nature of the states involved and the
importance of Taiwanese aid to their economies. Li notes that from the late
1980s to the early 1990s, roughly 10 percent of Taiwans direct foreign investment
(FDI) went to Latin America and the Caribbean, [51] highlighting the concerted
effort made in the region. Economic solidarity is increasingly important to the
formation of the Taiwan-Latin America relationship, for two reasons. The
first is that for Latin American states, the decision of which China to
support is less ideological and political than it ever has been; which makes
the decision a straight up economic zero-sum choice. The second is that
Latin America is home to natural resources which are of great significance
to the hungry growing economies of the PRC and the ROC regardless of
international recognition.
However, while the decision is not political for Latin American countries, for
Taiwan, every country which switches its recognition to the PRC damages
its legitimacy as a nation state in the international arena. The Table below shows the
designation of diplomatic recognition in the region in 2008.
Countries Recognising the PRC (China)Countries Recognising the ROC (Taiwan)Central AmericaMexico, Costa RicaEl Salvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, PanamaCaribbeanAntigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana,
Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad & TobagoBelize, Dominican Republic, Haiti, St Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the GrenadinesSouth
AmericaArgentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, VenezuelaParaguay.

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for the PRC, every state which withdraws its support for the
ROC takes it one step closer to being in a position where it can resolve the
Taiwan issue unilaterally . Subsequently, undermining Taiwan is of the
utmost importance to China, and it has taken to outbidding Taiwan in
offers of foreign aid, a strategy made possible by the decline in aid from the defunct Soviet Union, and the West,
On the other hand,
which is pre occupied with terrorism and the Middle East. Li notes that the regions leaders have turned to Asia for help to promote
trade and financial assistance, and consequently played the PRC and Taiwan against each other. [53] Despite its smaller size,
Taiwan has fared remarkably well in this bidding war; focusing its aid investments on infrastructure such as stadiums in St Kitts &
Nevis for the Cricket World Cup in 2007.
However, even Taiwans economy can be put under strain by the seemingly relentless stream of foreign aid which has brought only
This has contributed to the PRC picking off

the few remaining supporters of the ROC take for example, the Dominican case.
debateable and mild gains to the Taiwanese cause.
In early 2004, Commonwealth of Dominica asked Taipei for a $58 million aid, which is unrelated to public welfare. The Caribbean
nation had relied on Taiwan to develop its agriculture-based economy since 1983. Diplomatic relationship was soon broken after
Taipei turned down the request. [54] This incident showcased the fact that in economic terms, the PRC is winning the battle for Latin
America.
<CONTINUES..>

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CHINA ADV.
<CONTINUED>
Political strategies of the PRC
In political terms too; the PRC is in an advantageous position,
thanks in part again to

its position within the UN. While it can be argued that China provides incentives but does not threaten harm to induce countries to
defect from recognizing Taiwan, [55] the reality is that the use of force and direct harm are not the only means available to an
It refuses to maintain official relations with any state

that recognises the ROC; an action which can be quite prohibitive to the
country being able to take advantage of the growing Chinese market . Although
economic entity as powerful as China.
Domnguez suggests that the PRC has not been punitive toward those states that still recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan), [56] the legitimacy of
this claim has to be brought into question for example in June 1996, China fought the extension of the UN mission in Haiti, to punish the Caribbean
nation for its appeal for UN acceptance of Taiwan. [57] This incident showed that China is prepared to use its global clout to play spoiler and apply
indirect pressure on countries to adopt its position. Similarly, Chinas experience with one-party rule has taught it the importance of party-to-party
relations in addition to state-to-state relations, further cementing the PRC by establishing a relationship based on goodwill and common understanding.
Indeed by the start of 1998 the CCP had established relations with almost all major political parties in the countries that were Taiwans diplomatic allies in
Latin America, [58] further isolating the ROC.
The effect on American interests
Were the ROC to be deserted by its remaining allies in Latin America, the
USA would be disadvantaged in attempting to maintain the status quo
across the Taiwan Strait. A Taiwan that was not recognised by any state from the
Americas, or Europe (with the exception of the Vatican) would not be seen as a
genuine sovereign entity whose defence would be more important than the upkeep
of good relations between China and the West. As Chinas economic and
political position in the world improves vis--vis both America and Taiwan,
so might its ambitions. The U.S.A. might find itself in a position where it
could no longer withstand the diplomatic pressure to allow the PRC to
conclude a settlement on Taiwan, perhaps by force .
Multiple factors converge to make Taiwan the most likely

flashpoint for nuclear war. Even a conventional war would
escalate from misclac
Colby & Denmark et al., March 13, Nuclear Weapons and U.S.-China
Relations: A way forward, A report of the Poni Working Group on U.S.-China Nuclear
Dynamics, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Elbridge Colby- consultant
to the Global Security Directorate and the U.S. Strategic Command and the National
Intelligence Council, principal analyst for Global Strategic Affairs in Center for Naval
Analyses, J.D. from Yale Law School; Abraham M. Denmark- fellow with the Center
for a New American Security and directed the Asia-Pacific Security Program, former
Country Director for China Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, History
and Political Science at the University of Northern Colorado,
http://csis.org/files/publication/130307_Colby_USChinaNuclear_Web.pdf, ACC. 6-122013, JT//JEDI
Considerations of U.S.-China nuclear relations would be a largely academic exercise without the serious risk of conflict and tension
the significant sources of tension and disagreement

between the United States and China could, in the worst case, lead to conflict because a
number of these disputes center on highly valued interests for Washington and Beijing and could be
exacerbated by third parties, by miscommunication and miscalculation, by domestic
political pressures, and by the perceived need to save face.10 Moreover, few of
those relations entail. Unfortunately,
these disputes appear likely to be resolved definitively in the near term. Beyond disputes, there is also the simple geopolitical reality
of the rise of a new great power in the arena of a well-established status quo power. From time immemorial, this reality has proved
to be a source of tension and competition among nationsand has often led to war.
A large-scale conventional war between the United States and China would be
incredibly dangerous and destructive, and nuclear war between the two countries would

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Even though the likelihood of conventional war between the two nations is
currently lowand the probability of nuclear war is even lowerthe
appallingly high costs, dangers,

and risks of a war demand that this risk be taken seriously and that steps
be taken to render armed conflict more unlikely and less dangerous. The fact
that China and the United States could come to blows does not mean that any conflict would result in the use of nuclear weapons,
but it also does not mean that the use of nuclear weapons can be confidently ruled out, especially because even conflicts over
apparently marginal issues canin ways that are not entirely predictable in advanceescalate into conflicts over core interests. For
these reasons, perhaps the single most important task of American statecraft in the coming century will be managing Chinas rise in
a way that preserves peace while also defending important U.S. interests.11
The following factors could threaten those objectives. Disputes
Taiwan.
Taiwan remains the single most plausible and dangerous source of

tension and conflict between the United States and China. Beijing continues to be set on a policy to
prevent Taiwans independence, and the United States maintains the capability to come to Taiwans defense.12 Although tensions
across the Taiwan Strait have subsided since both Taipei and Beijing embraced a policy of engagement in 2008, the situation
remains combustible, complicated by rapidly diverging cross-strait military capabilities and persistent political disagreements.13
Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear weapons

would most likely become a major factor, because the fate of the island is
intertwined both with the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the
reliability of U.S. defense commitments in the Asia-Pacific region.
Moreover, for the foreseeable future

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CHINA ADV. CUBA INTERNALS
Continuing the current embargo guarantees greater Chinese

influence
The United States can continue with the current policy of trade embargo, travel
restrictions, and limited diplomatic relations. The United States will not likely choose
this path, but will rather go down it because it is easier politically to not change the
status quo. This policy requires a long-term commitment and continuing patience.
The Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act of 1996 provides the way ahead
that the Cuban government must follow in order to gain normalized relations with
the United States. This option follows the path of the last forty nine years and no
significant change is required on the part of the United States. Politically, this avoids
the problems generated by going against the Cuban voters of Florida that have
been strong supporters of the current policy. The risk is that the United States will
miss a window of opportunity to make fundamental positive changes to
our relationship with Cuba. Additionally, Cuba could attain economic
prosperity in spite of the United States actions. Cuba would be forced to
continue to look towards China and Venezuela for trade and security
relationships. Additionally, for both trade and tourism, Cuba will continue to
develop relationships with Canada and the European Union, while the United States
influence will continue to wane.
China has extensive material relations with Cuba


JT//JEDI
A more traditional worry of the U.S has been Cuba. The PRC has
maintained good relations with Havana throughout its entire existence, but
it wasnt until Castros disaffection with Moscow led to a weakening of Russo-Cuban
relations that China took over the mantle as chief protectorate of the island.
Ideology (at least for China) is not the factor it was in this relationship,
but the island nation still retains value both politically and economically to
Beijing because of its raw materials, a fact highlighted by the high profile visits
by Hu Jintao at the start of the century. Cuba also lets China use abandoned

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Soviet telecommunications infrastructure on the island [113] which has great

potential espionage value given its proximity to the U nited States.

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CHINA ADV. LA INTERNALS

China will use expanding trade relations as a pretext for
greater political cooperation in Latin America

JT//JEDI
As shown in the previous chapter, China greatly desires the natural resources
which Latin America is so rich in. To facilitate this it has advanced greater
political, economic, and cultural ties to the region in an effort to position
itself as a preferred trade partner for many of the countries whose
resources it seeks. In this chapter we will examine this burgeoning relationship
and ask whether it has any consequences for the United States.
Latin Americas attractiveness as a market
Latin America does not serve only as an attractive reservoir of potential
resources, with a population of over 500 million and an economy of
nearly $3 trillion, [it] is an attractive market for Chinese
products. [59] Greater economic linkages are almost certain to lead to
greater political cooperation too, as economics and politics are
inseparable.
Growing Chinese engagement directly trades off with U.S.

influence
Re-engaging Cuba should be used as a means to balance against China's growing

influence in Latin America, particularly in Cuba.
(7A) China's Economic Interest in Latin America
The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has
also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player, both
economically and politically, in regions all around the world, but particularly in
Latin America. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous
amount of soft power in Latin America, where it is now the continent's
third largest trading partner, with an annual trade growth of 30% since
2001. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many
countries to adopt a "Pacific view," whereby China steps in to fill the gap
left by America's absence. n116
After signing a free trade agreement with Chile, China quickly displaced the United
States as that country's largest export market. China also [*224] recently displaced
the U.S. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. n117 In 2000, trade between China and

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Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion, but in 2007, that number had increased
to $ 102 billion, and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. n118 Even
despite the current financial crisis, trade between China and Latin America is likely
to grow during the next five years.
China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive
global political agenda. In 2007, Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of
Taiwan, a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. In 2008, President Hu rewarded
Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in
2010. n119
China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations
to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. It charts China's
growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in
scientific and technological research, cross-cultural educational exchanges, as well
as political and economic exchanges. n120 As China's role in Latin America
increases, American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative
power . To be sure, the U.S. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for
decades to come, but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. Given
this diminishing economic position, Washington will have to rely more
heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than
simply economic incentives and disincentives, such as bilateral trade
agreements.

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CHINA ADV. HEG INTERNAL

Chinese engagement in Latin America is beginning to displace
the U.S.This undermines energy access and will force the
U.S. to become more reliant on unstable areas
JT//JEDI
The U.S has some reason to be concerned by the economic implications of Chinas resource drive in Latin America because while
the United States has traditionally looked to Latin America as its source of numerous raw materials and a market for its finished
products, China is fast replacing the United States in these roles. [37] The United States has no intention of being usurped in its
role as chief beneficiary of the regions energy resources, but for every barrel of oil that China purchases from Latin America, there
is potentially one less barrel available for the U.S[38] It is of course extremely premature to be using words such as usurped as
Chinas involvement in the region is at a very early stage and its energy
interests are not overly well defined, but already, Chinas total
consumption of the five basic commodities grain, meat, oil, coal and steel
has already surpassed that of the USA in all but oil, [39] leading many
analysts such as Hutton to wonder how the global supply of energy can cope with
the emergence of such a hungry economy without conflict over increasingly scarce
resources. [40]
The development of China and its interests in the region is therefore key. Roett &
Paz argue that what matters most for Sino-Latin American energy
relations is not where China is today but how it compares with its position
in the world at the start of the twenty-first century and where it is likely to
be in 2030. [41] Due to the triangular relationship between China, the
U.S, and Latin America, any shift of the equilibrium towards China cannot
fail to impact upon the United States. Bajpaee moots the idea:
While not a zero-sum game, growing inter-linkages and interdependence
between China and Latin America is likely to come at the cost of the U nited
States relations with its neighbours, which will only undermine U.S ability to
access the regions energy resources. This will force the U.S to rely on
energy resources from more remote and less stable regions, such as West
Africa, the Caspian and the Middle East. [42]

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CHINA ADV. U.S. CONFLICT SCENARIO

The more China engages Cuba and we maintain the embargo,
the more likely China will use force to secure their interests.
This creates a Taiwan type scenario for military conflict and the
end to U.S. influence in Latin America
JT//JEDI
The United States has imposed a longstanding embargo against Cuba, so any
efforts to economically strangle the island are naturally offset by aid from
Beijing (and Caracas). There is a fear that a growing China might be more
and more willing to protect its Latin American and Caribbean interests by
force as its power projection grows. Erikson notes that as Chinas political
and economic clout continues to grow, Cuba is poised to become Beijings
most valued beachhead in the Caribbean. [114] While not a direct threat in its
own right, Cuba has existed as a troubling client state for America to deal with.
Hopes that following the end of Fidel Castros reign Cuba may be coaxed
or forced back into the global communiqu of nations (and therefore the
U.Ss sphere of influence) seem futile while China is in effect helping to
sustain the economic system of the island through aid, and generous
trade terms. Erikson laments that U.S. policymakers who dream of remaking Cuba should be aware that China and Venezuela are poised to
loom ever larger in Washingtons rear-view mirror. [115] This situation in
many ways could end up mirroring the Taiwan Strait, where one great
power postures in such a malignant way that the status quo is maintained
as an alternative to the prospect of outright conflict.
Global nuclear war

Lee J., Hunkovic 9 American Military University, The Chinese-Taiwanese
Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United
States of America, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf, JEDI
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to
escalate into a nuclear conflict and a third world war, therefore, many
countries other than the primary actors could be affected by such a
conflict, including Japan, both Koreas, Russia, Australia, India and Great
Britain, if they were drawn into the war, as well as all other countries in the world
that participate in the global economy, in which the United States and China are the
two most dominant members.

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CHINA ADV. CYBER ATTACKS SCENARIO

Only greater engagement with Cuba forestalls a new round of
cyber attacks
In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States, China has an
incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba, which can be used
in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington.
Development of such capabilities may already be happening. China has a
huge presence at Lourdes, a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana,
where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed
there, including almost all of the computers, came from China. n124 Another former
Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence
analysts. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic, not ideological, which begs the
question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is
cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States, a greater
American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the
scope of this rather disturbing operation.
Tanks the US economy

Michael Vatis, 2000 FBI, Congressional Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime
in the House and the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight, Federal
News Service, 2/29, l/n, JEDI
And this is not just a criminal problem; it is also a national security problem. This is
because our nation's critical infrastructures -- and by that I mean those
services that are vital to our economy and to our national security, such as
electrical power, telecommunications, transportation and government operations -are now all dependent on computer technology for their very operations.
And that dependence makes them vulnerable to an attack which, if
successful, could deny service on a very broad scale. The same basic types
of cyber attacks that therefore have become attractive to criminals are
also attractive to foreign intelligence services, who seek new ways to obtain
sensitive government or proprietary information, and also to terrorists and
hostile foreign nations, who are bent on attacking U.S. interests.

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CHINA ADV. CYBER ATTACKS SCENARIO

Economic decline causes global war
Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction U.S. Department
of Defense, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of
Economic Crises, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political
Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood
of external conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree
of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence
behaviour of interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at
systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on
the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work
on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms in the global economy are
associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often
bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such,
exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of
relative power (see also Gilpin. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power
balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver, 1995). Alternatively,
even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive
environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining
power (Werner. 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic
cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict
among major, medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and
connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain
unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland's (1996, 2000) theory of trade
expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of
states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from
trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if
the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace
items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states
will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could
potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or
because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4 Third, others
have considered the link between economic decline and external armed
conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong
correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly
during periods of economic downturn. They write: The linkages between
internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing.
Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour.
Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which
international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg &
Hess, 2002. p. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in
the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana, 2004), which has the
capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore, crises

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generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. "Diversionary theory"

suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline,
sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external
military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996),
DeRouen (1995). and Blomberg, Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence
showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated.
Gelpi (1997), Miller (1999), and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the
tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states
than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more
susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen
(2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic
performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are
statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. In summary, recent
economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in
the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship links
economic decline with external conflict at systemic, dyadic and national
levels.5 This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has
not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more
attention.

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CHINA ADV. CYBER ATTACKS Ext.

China poses an immense cyber-terror threat
Minnick 7-9 (WENDELL MINNICK, Asia Bureau Chief for Defense News, a
Washington-based defense weekly newspaper, Published: July 9, 2013, Acessed: July
9, 2013, Experts: Chinese Cyber Threat to US Is Growing,
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130709/DEFREG03/307090009/ExpertsChinese-Cyber-Threat-US-Growing)//mw
TAIPEI Despite allegations by Edward Snowden that the US intelligence
community has created an Orwellian nightmare capable of penetrating
Chinese computers with ease, there is still plenty to fear from Chinese
cyberattacks. China divides cyber into two target areas: political and military, said
Jun Isomura, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank. On
the political side, Chinas cyber efforts focus on the White House, State Department,
Energy Department and the Office of the US Trade Representative, among others.
Military targets include the entire US defense community, including US
intelligence and the defense industry. Law firms contracted with major US
defense contractors and the Pentagon are quite vulnerable, he said. The
Peoples Liberation Army has the US military and government network
well pinged, Isomura said. They know where they should attack. And they
know both classified and unclassified networks well. Disrupting the Pentagons
unclassified Non-secure Internet Protocol Router Network (NIPRNET) could
slow the response time of the US military during a crisis. Larry Wortzel, a
commissioner of the congressionally appointed US-China Economic and Security
Review Commission, said NIPRNET carries vital logistical, personnel and unit
movement data.

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CHINA ADV. U.S. CROWD OUT / SOLVENCY

China is expanding into Latin America---US influence is key to
crowd them out
Alan Dowd 12, Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation,
Crisis in the America's, ACC. 6-7-2013,

http://www.ascfusa.org/content_pages/view/crisisinamericas, JT//JEDI
U.S. policymakers have neglected
a growing challenge right here in the Western Hemisphere: the expanding
influence and reach of China.
China is engaged in a flurry of investing and spending in
Latin America. In Costa Rica, China is funding a $1.24-billion upgrade of the countrys oil refinery; bankrolling an $83-million soccer stadium; backing infrastructure
Focused on military operations in the Middle East, nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea, and the global threat of terrorism,
Eyeing energy resources to keep its economy humming,
and telecommunications improvements; and pouring millions into a new police academy. In Colombia, China is planning a massive dry canal to link the countrys Pacific and Atlantic
coasts by rail. At either terminus, there will be Chinese ports; in between, there will be Chinese assembly facilities, logistics operations and distribution plants; and on the Pacific side,
there will be dedicated berths to ship Colombian coal outbound to China. In mid-January, a Chinese-built oil rig arrived in Cuba to begin drilling in Cubas swath of the Gulf of Mexico.
Reuters reports that Spanish, Russian, Malaysian and Norwegian firms will use the rig to extract Cuban oil. For now, China is focusing on onshore oil extraction in Cuba. New offshore
discoveries will soon catapult Brazil into a top-five global oil producer. With some 38 billion barrels of recoverable oil off its coast, Brazil expects to pump 4.9 million barrels per day by
2020, as the Washington Times reports, and China has used generous loans to position itself as the prime beneficiary of Brazilian oil. Chinas state-run oil and banking giants have inked
technology-transfer, chemical, energy and real-estate deals with Brazil. Plus, as the Times details, China came to the rescue of Brazils main oil company when it sought financing for its
massive drilling plans, pouring $10 billion into the project. A study in Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ) adds that Beijing plunked down $3.1 billion for a slice of Brazils vast offshore oil fields.
The JFQ study reveals just how deep and wide Beijing is spreading its financial influence in Latin America: $28 billion in loans to Venezuela; a $16.3-billion commitment to develop
Venezuelan oil reserves; $1 billion for Ecuadoran oil; $4.4 billion to develop Peruvian mines; $10 billion to help Argentina modernize its rail system; $3.1 billion to purchase Argentinas
petroleum company outright. The New York Times adds that Beijing has lent Ecuador $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant. There is good and bad to Beijings increased interest and
investment in the Western Hemisphere. Investment fuels development, and much of Latin America is happily accelerating development in the economic, trade, technology and
infrastructure spheres. But Chinas riches come with strings.
For instance, in exchange for Chinese development funds and loans, Venezuela agreed to increase oil shipments to China from 380,000 barrels per day to one million barrels per day. Its
worth noting that the Congressional Research Service has reported concerns in Washington that Hugo Chavez might try to supplant his U.S. market with China. Given that Venezuela
pumps an average of 1.5 million barrels of oil per day for the U.S.or about 11 percent of net oil importsthe results would be devastating for the U.S.
That brings us to the security dimension of Chinas checkbook diplomacy in

the Western Hemisphere.
Officials with the U.S. Southern Command conceded as early as 2006 that Beijing had approached every country in
our area of responsibility and provided military exchanges, aid or
training to Ecuador, Jamaica, Bolivia, Cuba, Chile and Venezuela.
The JFQ study adds that China has an important and growing presence in
the regions military institutions. Most Latin American nations, including Mexico, send officers to
professional military education courses in the PRC. In Ecuador, Venezuela and Bolivia , Beijing has begun to sell
sophisticated hardwaresuch as radars and K-8 and MA-60 aircraft. The JFQ
report concludes, ominously, that Chinese defense firms are likely to
leverage their experience and a growing track record for their goods to
expand their market share in the region, with the secondary consequence
being that those purchasers will become more reliant on the associated Chinese logistics, maintenance, and
training infrastructures that support those products.
Put it all together, and the southern flank of the United States is exposed to a range of new security challenges.
To be sure, much of this is a function of Chinas desire to secure oil markets. But theres more at work here than Chinas thirst for oil. Like a global chess match, China is probing Latin
China is developing trade and

military ties in Americas neighborhood.
This is a direct challenge to U.S. primacy in the region a challenge that must be answered.
America and sending a message that just as Washington has trade and military ties in Chinas neighborhood,
First, Washington needs to relearn an obvious truththat Chinas rulers do not share Americas valuesand needs to shape and conduct its China policy in that context.
Beijing has no respect for human rights. Recall that in China, an estimated 3-5 million people are rotting away in laogai slave-labor camps, many of them guilty of political dissent or
religious activity; democracy activists are rounded up and imprisoned; freedom of speech and religion and assembly do not exist; and internal security forces are given shoot-to-kill
orders in dealing with unarmed citizens. Indeed, Beijing viewed the Arab Spring uprisings not as an impetus for political reform, but as reason to launch its harshest crackdown on
dissent in at least a decade, according to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.
In short, the ends always justify the means in Beijing. And that makes all the difference when it comes to foreign and defense policy. As Reagan counseled during the Cold War, There is
no true international security without respect for human rights.
the U.S. must stop taking the Western Hemisphere for granted, and
reengage in its own neighborhood economically, politically and militarily.
That means no more allowing trade deals and the partners counting on themto languish. Plans for a
hemispheric free trade zone have faltered and foundered. The trade-expansion agreements with Panama and Colombia were left
in limbo for years, before President Obama finally signed them into law in 2011 Reengagement means reviving U.S.
diplomacy. The Wall Street Journal reports that due to political wrangling in Washington, the State Department position focused on the Western Hemisphere has been
Second,
instead
must
staffed by an interim for nearly a year, while six Western Hemisphere ambassadorial posts (Uruguay, Venezuela, Ecuador, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Barbados) remain empty.
Reengagement means reversing plans to slash defense spending. The Joint Forces Command noted in 2008 that China has a deep respect for U.S. military power. We cannot overstate
how important this has been to keeping the peace. But with the United States in the midst of massive military retrenchment, one wonders how long that reservoir of respect will last.

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Reengagement also means revitalizing security ties. A good model to follow might be whats happening in Chinas backyard .
To deter China and

Perhaps its time to
prevent an accidental war

do the same in Latin America. We should remember that many Latin American countriesfrom Mexico and Panama to Colombia and Chile
, the U.S. is reviving its security partnerships all across the Asia-Pacific region.
border the Pacific. Given Beijings actions, it makes sense to bring these Latin American partners on the Pacific Rim into the alliance of alliances that is already stabilizing the Asia-Pacific
region.
Finally, all of this needs to be part of a revived Monroe Doctrine.
Focusing on Chinese encroachment in the Americas
, this Monroe Doctrine 2.0
would make
it clear to Beijing that the United States

discourages any
claims of controlimplied or explicitby China over territories, properties
or facilities in the Americas. In addition, Washington should make it clear to Beijing that the American people would look unfavorably upon the
welcomes Chinas efforts to conduct trade in the Americas but
sale of Chinese arms or the basing of Chinese advisors or military assets in the Western Hemisphere.

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CHINA ADV. GENERAL IMPACT EXT.

Multiple factors make miscalc likely ending in an escalatory
nuclear conflict
William Lowther 13, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, 3/16/13, Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211, ACC. 612-2013, JT//JEDI
Although Beijing and Washington have agreed to a range of crisis
management mechanisms, such as the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement
and the establishment of a direct hotline between the Pentagon and the Ministry of
Defense, the bases for miscommunication and misunderstanding remain
and draw on deep historical reservoirs of suspicion, the report says.
For example, it says, it is unclear whether either side understands what
kinds of actions would result in a military or even nuclear response by the
other party.
To make things worse, neither side seems to believe the others declared
policies and intentions, suggesting that escalation management, already a
very uncertain endeavor, could be especially difficult in any conflict, it says.
Although conflict mercifully seems unlikely at this point, the report concludes that
it cannot be ruled out and may become increasingly likely if we are unwise or
unlucky.
The report says: With both sides possessing and looking set to retain
formidable nuclear weapons arsenals, such a conflict would be
tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating.
Global nuclear war

Lee J., Hunkovic 9 American Military University, The Chinese-Taiwanese
Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United
States of America, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf, JEDI
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to
escalate into a nuclear conflict and a third world war, therefore, many
countries other than the primary actors could be affected by such a
conflict, including Japan, both Koreas, Russia, Australia, India and Great
Britain, if they were drawn into the war, as well as all other countries in the world
that participate in the global economy, in which the United States and China are the
two most dominant members.
Chinese economic engagement undermines Latin American

economies

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JT//JEDI
A final point is that although Sino-Latin American economic relations are
advancing, they are not without hiccups. The granting of Market Economy
Status to China has caused some Latin American economies problems,
particularly Brazil who have found their market flooded with cheap Chinese
imports. Also, while Latin America is attractive as a market to China, it
does not offer the same potential return as the U.S market does for both
parties. Although the Export similarity index [77] notes that only Mexico (and to a
lesser extent Brazil) are directly competing with China, as the economies of Latin
America develop they may find themselves squeezed out in a battle with
China for access to the U.S market as they cannot compete with Chinas
low cost products.

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CHINA ADV. TAIWAN INTERNAL LINK EXT.

China uses Latin American engagement to shore up support to
achieve hard power goals in Taiwan
Isenberg 8, David. (Analyst in national and international security affairs. He is
also a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, an adjunct scholar with
the Cato Institute,) "A Hard Look at Chinas Soft Power." Cato Institute. Cato
Institute, 15 May 2008. Web. 05 July 2013.
<http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/hard-look-chinas-soft-power>. //wy
The fact that China uses soft power does not, however, mean they are
disconnected form hard power goals. The study notes that in all three of the
regions Latin America, Asia-Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa discussed, where
China is most active, access to energy resources and raw commodities to
fuel Chinas domestic growth plays a dominant role in Beijings activities.
China has oil and gas exploration contracts with Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia,
Colombia, Venezuela and Cuba; oil contracts and pipeline deals are a major part of
Chinas activities in its relations with Central Asian states such as Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan, and Chinas oil exploration interests extend to Burma, Vietnam, and
Malaysia. Imports of crude oil constitute the bulk of Chinas imports from African
states. China also deploys its soft power as part of the political dynamic of
trying to separate Taiwan from its remaining diplomatic relationships,
although this dynamic varies according to region. While it is important in Chinas
African relationships, it is not important in Chinas relations with Central Asian
countries, where Taiwan has no official diplomatic relations. It is a negligible factor
in Chinas relationships with Southeast Asian countries, where Taiwan has significant
economic interests but no diplomatic ties. But the Taiwan-China competition
looms large in Chinas relationships in Latin America and the Caribbean.
The regions proximity to the US mainland allows Taiwans president and
senior leaders to ask for symbolically meaningful transit stops in the U nited
States when making official visits to western hemisphere countries. A significant
reduction, or even the disappearance, of Taiwans Latin America and Caribbean
relationships could greatly impair this US connection.
Chinese engagement pits U.S.-Taiwan relations in jeopardy


JT//JEDI
The issue of Taiwanese relations with America is too complex for us to deal with
here, but clearly as China grows stronger and its ties with Latin America
grow deeper, Washington is going to have to decide whether its relations
with Taipei are more important than a Sino-Latin American consensus on

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the resolution of Taiwans future. Its also clear that from Chinas
perspective, a cordial relationship with Washington could isolate Taiwan
politically. [132] Whether the status quo across the strait can be
maintained through Washingtons tacit support of Taiwan as Chinese
power and influence increases vis--vis America is an issue that may
increase in pressure for American policy makers.

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CHINA ADV. TAIWAN IMPACT EXT.

Extinction
Johnson, 1, Chalmers, The Nation, Time to Bring the Troops Home p. 20, 5/14,
http://www.thenation.com/article/time-bring-troops-home , JT//JEDI
China is another matter. No sane figure in the Pentagon wants a war with
China, and all serious US militarists know that China's minuscule nuclear capacity is
not offensive but a deterrent against the overwhelming US power arrayed against it
(twenty archaic Chinese warheads versus more than 7,000 US warheads). Taiwan,
whose status constitutes the still incomplete last act of the Chinese civil war,
remains the most dangerous place on earth. Much as the 1914 assassination of the
Austrian crown prince in Sarajevo led to a war that no one wanted, a misstep in
Taiwan by any side could bring the United States and China into a conflict that
neither wants. Such a war would bankrupt the United States, deeply divide
Japan and probably end in a Chinese victory, given that China is the
world's most populous country and would be defending itself against a
foreign aggressor. More seriously, it could easily escalate into a nuclear
holocaust.
Taiwan crisis draws in the U.S.

Michael Mazza 13, research fellow in foreign and defense policy at the American
Enterprise Institute, 1/3/13, Four Surprises That Could Rock Asia in 2013,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/03/four_surprises_that_could_rock_asi
a_in_2012?page=full, Foreign Policy, ACC. 6-10-2013, JT//JEDI
Economic integration is apparently failing to halt what Beijing sees as a
troubling trend. With a cross-strait trade agreement and a slew of other, easier
deals already on the books, Beijing now expects Ma to discuss political issues.
But Ma doesn't have the domestic political support to pursue political
talks -- in March 2012, two months after his reelection, 45 percent of those polled
said the pace of cross-strait exchanges was "just right," but the share of
respondents answering "too fast" had increased to 32.6 percent, from 25.7 percent
before the election. Any Chinese shift toward a more strident Taiwan policy
could portend a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait sooner than many expect ,
as a lack of progress on these issues may buttress hawks in the new Xi
Jinping administration. And America would surely be dragged in : Even lowlevel coercive measures against Taiwan -- a top 10 U.S. trading partner and
security ally -- could throw U.S.-China relations into a tailspin.

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Conflict over Taiwan that begins with conventional warfare
goes nuclear
Riqiang 6-21 (Wu Riqiang, Associate Professor at the School of International
Studies, Renmin University, Published: June 21, 2013, Accessed: July 9, 2013,
Research and analysis Issues in Sino-US Nuclear Relations: Survivability, Coercion
and Escalation, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/issues-in-sino-usnuclear-relations-survivability-coercion-and-escalation/issues-in-sino-us-nuclearrelations-survivability-coercion-and-escalation)//mw
The two articles both raise the issues of conflict escalation and crisis
management, and this is indeed a very important issue in the contemporary
Sino-US relationship. Because of the Taiwan issue and the East and South
China Seas problems the two countries could be drawn into a conflict. A
conventional conflict between these two countries could, because of the
two countries force structure and strategic and tactical proclivities,
escalate to nuclear war. To be specific, there are three factors that could cause
crisis escalation. First, by integrating superiority in nuclear, conventional
and missile defense domain, the United States might achieve disarming
capability against China, and translate this position into coercive power.
Kissinger said, in 1971, that we have no disarming capability against the USSR but
we do have some against China. As long as we have a disarming capability
we can use it to regulate their actions in local situations. 10 In 2006 two
American authors wrote an article in which they suggested that the United
States had a first strike advantage over China. This article is based on an
unreasonable assumption that the United States has perfect intelligence
capability, and so their conclusion is fatally flawed. Chinas main objective in
the modernisation of its nuclear weapons is to enhance their survivability, and, in
recent years, the survivability of Chinas nuclear weapons has indeed shown great
improvement. We can be reasonably confident that in the current force
structure between the United States and China, the United States cannot
have confidence of destroying all Chinas nuclear weapons in a first strike,
but how the balance between the United States and China will develop in
the future is unknown. This is especially so given the United States ongoing and
rapid development of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), and their refusal to accept
any restrictions on this process. When this process is complete and the United
States is able to field large-scale and highly effective BMD systems, then
the United States will have a genuine first strike capability against China,
and then the United States will be able to use nuclear weapons to coerce
China.

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Full scale U.S.-China war over Taiwan escalates due to miscalc
and goes nuclearprefer the most recent and qualified
evidence.
Colby et al., March 2013, Nuclear Weapons and U.S.-China Relations: A way
forward, A report of the Poni Working Group on U.S.-China Nuclear Dynamics,
Center for Strategic and International Studies; Elbridge Colby- consultant to the
Global Security Directorate and the U.S. Strategic Command and the National
Intelligence Council, principal analyst for Global Strategic Affairs in Center for Naval
Analyses, BA in History from Harvard College and J.D. from Yale Law School;
Abraham M. Denmark- fellow with the Center for a New American Security and
directed the Asia-Pacific Security Program, former Country Director for China Affairs
in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, History and Political Science at the
University of Northern Colorado, MA in International Security from the Josef Korbel
School of International Studies at the University of Denver; Directed by John K.
Warden- intern at CSIS; http://csis.org/file...uclear_Web.pdf,
Considerations of U.S.-China nuclear relations would be a largely academic exercise without the serious risk of conflict and tension those relations entail.
, the significant sources of tension and disagreement between

the United States and China could, in the worst case, lead to conflict because a
number of these disputes center on highly valued interests for
Washington and Beijing and could be exacerbated by third parties,
by miscommunication and miscalculation, by domestic political pressures, and by the
Unfortunately
perceived need to save face.10 Moreover, few of these disputes appear likely to be resolved definitively in the near term. Beyond disputes, there is
also the simple geopolitical reality of the rise of a new great power in the arena of a well-established status quo power. From time immemorial,
this
reality has proved to be a source of tension and competition among nationsand has often led to war. A
large-scale conventional war between the United States and China
would be incredibly dangerous and destructive, and nuclear war
between the two countries would be devastating for all involved. Even
though the likelihood of conventional war between the two nations is currently lowand the probability of nuclear war is even lowerthe appallingly high
costs, dangers, and risks of a war demand that this risk be taken seriously and that steps be taken to render armed conflict more unlikely and less
dangerous. The fact that China and the United States could come to blows does not mean that any conflict would result in the use of nuclear weapons, but
conflicts over
apparently marginal issues canin ways that are not entirely predictable in advanceescalate into
conflicts over core interests. For these reasons, perhaps the single most important task of American statecraft in the
it also does not mean that the use of nuclear weapons can be confidently ruled out, especially because even
coming century will be managing Chinas rise in a way that preserves peace while also defending important U.S. interests.11 The following factors could
Taiwan remains the single most plausible and

dangerous source of tension and conflict between the United States
and China. Beijing continues to be set on a policy to prevent
Taiwans independence, and the United States maintains the
capability to come to Taiwans defense.12 Although tensions across the Taiwan Strait have subsided since
both Taipei and Beijing embraced a policy of engagement in 2008, the situation remains combustible,
complicated by rapidly diverging cross-strait military capabilities and persistent political
disagreements.13 Moreover, for the foreseeable future Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear
weapons would most likely become a major factor, because the fate
threaten those objectives. Disputes Taiwan.

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of the island is intertwined both with the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and
the reliability of U.S. defense commitments in the Asia-Pacific region.

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CUBAN POVERTY ADV.

Removing the embargo would be a game-changer that
alleviates Cuban poverty
Paolo Spadoni, 9, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the Center for Inter-
American Policy and Research at Tulane University, April 2009, Failed Sanctions :
Transnational Players and the U.S. Embargo against Cuba, Manuscript retrieved
from:
http://cipr.bigglassonion.com/CMSuploads/Research_Spadoni_Cuba_Book_Introductio
n_Conclusion.pdf, ACC. 6-14-2013, JT//JEDI
It should be noted that Bushs restrictions on Cuban-American travel and remittances to Cuba implemented in June 2004 seem to
have had little or no impact on both practices. After a substantial decline in the immediate aftermath of Bushs introduction of stiffer
rules, Cuban-American trips to the island resumed strong growth and reached a record level in 2007. That year, U.S. visitors were
the third largest group among foreign travelers to Cuba after Canadians and Britons. Moreover, unofficial estimates based on sales
The reality is that,

even with tightened U.S. enforcement, Cuban-Americans can easily
circumvent restrictions by traveling to Cuba through third countries and
delivering remittances, as they always did, through mules or other
informal mechanisms. Such practices also demonstrate that a growing
number of Cuban-Americans, unlike certain hard-line segments of the exile
community, do not believe that a policy of isolation toward Havana is the
right course of action. And on top of all this, the recent emergence of Venezuela
as Cubas main economic lifeline has made Washingtons task even more daunting.
Given this situation, a potentially more effective course of action for the
United States is to foster a rapprochement with Cuba and the removal of the
major provisions of the embargo in recognition that economic sanctions
have not achieved their main goals. It could be a true game-changer . The
elimination of Washingtons restrictions on trade, investment, and travel
with respect to Cuba would serve U.S. political and economic interests by
improving the living standards of the Cuban population and allowing
American firms and citizens to enter the islands market and influence its
society. It would also increase pressure on Havana by preventing the
Castro government from using its traditional argument that the United States
promotes economic deprivation in Cuba and seeks to constrain Cuban sovereignty. To conclude,
in hard currency stores suggest that remittances to Cuba have actually increased since 2004.
consider a quote by George W. Bush that exemplifies the great irony of U.S. economic sanctions against Cuba. In July 2001, Bush
stated: The sanctions the United States enforces against the Castro regime are not just a policy tool, but a moral statement. It is
wrong to prop up a regime that routinely stifles all the freedoms that make us human (Gerstenzang, July 14, 2001). If this is the
case, then U.S. policy toward Cuba in the post-Cold War era has been nothing other than a wrong policy. Only time will tell whether
the new U.S. administration of Barack Obama and a Democratic-controlled Congress will finally make it right.

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CUBAN POVERTY ADV.

Poverty in Cuba is marked by immense suffering and
deprivationLack of access is key
Ral A. Sandoval 28 March 2012.an economist and professor at the School of
Economics of the University of Havana, Poverty in Cuba, http://progresoweekly.com/2/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3162:poverty-incuba&catid=36:in-cuba&Itemid=54, ACC. 7//10/13, JT//JEDI
The truth is that no country, despite its proposals and implemented policies, has
solved the problem entirely. Poverty is a complex issue that has economic,
social, political and ideological connotations.
Any project that attempts to study poverty should start from an analysis of people's income. Thus, the average monthly wage in 2011 amounted to 460
pesos, with the peculiarity that the average wage of just over 43 percent of the people with jobs was lower than the abovementioned average. This
average wage is equivalent to 18.42 CUC (convertible pesos) or US$21.03 if one wishes to express income in those two currencies.
The products that make the 17.40-peso monthly basket regulated or rationed contribute only 41.2 percent of the calories recommended as minimum
nutritional requirements (2,500 per day). To achieve the appropriate level, the consumer will have to spend an additional 403 pesos (breads, pizzas,
patties, eggs, farm products, etc.)
With the almost 40 pesos left from his salary, an individual must pay for his utilities (water, electricity, gas and, if available, telephone), transportation,
personal and home care products and ALL the expenses of the people who depend on him.
In its research, the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) has uniformly adopted a ratio of 0.5 between the food expenditure and the total
consumption expenditure. If this proportion were valid for Cuba, then, in a first approximation, the poverty line or threshold would be around 841.40 pesos
a month per person.
On the other hand, the average annual pension is 244.86 pesos. Hence, it can be assumed that all retirees and pensioners are potentially poor, except
those who earn another income, either by way of remittances from abroad or by their return to work.
With respect to housing, for years the population has suffered shortages of the materials with which to minimally repair and maintain their homes, which
has meant an increasing deterioration of housing. Some estimates indicate that between 60 percent and 70 percent of all houses in Cuba can be
considered to be in fair or poor condition. This means that a considerable number of families, nuclei or individuals have not met that basic need.
Transportation is another problem that plagues the Cubans. After the improvement experienced by the urban public transport, especially in the capital, in
mid-2010 the service began again to deteriorate severely, causing residents to spend more that 2 hours traveling from one point of the city to another in
packed buses.
some reflection is required.

Some surveys showed that, at the beginning of the century, poverty averaged 20
percent of the urban population and went as high as 40 percent. This author is not
able to prove or disprove such figures, but can only say that a large segment of the
population suffers from some form of poverty.
What happens is that poverty in Cuba has some specific connotations and
differs from the better known and most extreme forms in which it
manifests itself. So, there are no beggars in Cuba, or children rummaging through
garbage cans for food. Education at all levels is free, as well as medical and hospital
care. Social security is assured.
Poverty is experienced or suffered when the food is inadequate and does
not cover nutritional requirements; when housing conditions do not meet
peoples needs and they live in shelters or in other folks homes; when the
household goods, the toiletries, clothing and footwear are unattainable
because their prices are notoriously high and peoples income is not
sufficient and does not correspond with the amount and quality of the work they
perform; when people cannot access certain goods and services imposed by
modernity; when recreation and leisure, or even buying a good book,
constitute a luxury for many. All who find themselves in such conditions are, to
some extent, poor.
So, are there poor people in Cuba or not? The answer is yes, but

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CUBAN POVERTY ADV. EMBARGO = POVERTY

The embargo is the principle cause of Cuban poverty
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Both the United States and Cuba would benefit if Washington would lift its
longstanding trade embargo against the island, but U.S. President Barack
Obama has toughened the sanctions since taking office in 2009, a top Cuban official
said on Thursday.
The embargo, fully in place since 1962, has done $108 billion in damage to
the Cuba economy, but also has violated the constitutional rights of Americans
and made a market of 11 million people off limits to U.S. companies, Foreign
Minister Bruno Rodriguez told reporters.
"The blockade is, without doubt, the principal cause of the economic
problems of our country and the essential obstacle for (our)
development," he said, using Cuba's term for the embargo.
"The blockade provokes suffering, shortages, difficulties that reach each
Cuban family, each Cuban child," Rodriguez said.
The embargo is a failure that undermines Cuban economic

freedom
Daniel T. Griswold, May 27, 2, associate director of the Cato Institutes Center for Trade Policy
Studies, No: The Embargo Harms Cubans and Gives Castro an Excuse for the Policy Failures of His
Regime, ACC. 6-1-2013, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/no-embargo-harms-cubansgives-castro-excuse-policy-failures-regime, JT//JEDI
If the goal of U.S. policy toward Cuba is to help its people achieve freedom
and a better life, the economic embargo has failed completely. Its
economic effect is to make the people of Cuba worse-off by depriving them of
lower-cost food and other goods that could be bought from the United States. It
means less independence for Cuban workers and entrepreneurs, who
could be earning dollars from American tourists and fueling private-sector
growth. Meanwhile, Castro and his ruling elite enjoy a comfortable, insulated
lifestyle by extracting any meager surplus produced by their captive subjects.

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CUBAN POVERTY ADV. SOLVENCY/INTERNALS

Lifting the embargo fosters diplomacy and economic growth
Tampa Bay Times (editorial), Feb. 21, 12, U.S. embargo on Cuba: a halfcentury of failure, ACC. 6-13-2013, http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/editorials/usembargo-on-cuba-a-half-century-of-failure/1216424, JT//JEDI
In fact, the embargo has been gently lifted when it suited U.S. economic
interests. In 2011, despite the embargo, the United States exported an estimated
$328.3 million in mostly agricultural products to Cuba. In 2008, the number was
even higher $711.5 million in exports to the island.
Recent baby steps in allowing limited travel to Cuba are welcome. But
they are not enough. Lifting the full embargo would rekindle formal
diplomatic relations, reunite families, boost tourism and allow American
business interests to broaden their investments. History has proven that
engagement is a more effective foreign policy tool than estrangement. The
embargo against Cuba has been a 50-year failure.
We have multiple internal links to Cuban economic recovery

CETIM 3 Centre Europe Tiers Monde, independent research and political
organization working at the UN, THE EFFECTS OF THE US EMBARGO AGAINST CUBA
AND THE REASONS OF THE URGENT NEED TO LIFT IT,
http://www.cetim.ch/oldsite/2003/03js04w4.htm, ACC.JEDI
The harmful economic effects of the embargo
From an official Cuban source, the direct economic damages caused to Cuba by
the US embargo since its institution would exceed 70 billion dollars. The
damages include: 1) the loss of earnings due to the obstacles to the
development of services and exportations (tourism, air transport, sugar,
nickel; 2) the losses registered as a result of the geographic reorientation of the
commercial flows, (additional costs of freight, stocking and commercialization at
the purchasing of the goods); 3) the impact of the limitation imposed on the
growth of the national production of goods and services (limited access to
technologies, lack of access to spare parts and hence early retirement of
equipment, forced restructuring of firms, serious difficulties sustained by the sectors
of sugar, electricity, transportation, agriculture); 4) the monetary and financial
restrictions (impossibility to renegotiate the external debt, interdiction of access to
the dollar, unfavourable impact of the variation of the exchange rates on trade,
"riskcountry", additional cost of financing due to US opposition to the
integration of Cuba into the international financial institutions); 5) the
pernicious effects of the incentive to emigration, including illegal emigration (loss
of human resources and talents generated by the Cuban educational system); 6)
social damages affecting the population (concerning food, health, education,
culture, sport). ! If it affects negatively all the sectors, the embargo directly
impedes - besides the exportations - the driving forces of the Cuban

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economic recovery , at the top of which are tourism, foreign direct investments
(FDI) and currency transfers. Many European subsidiaries of US firms had recently to break off negotiations for the
management of hotels, because their lawyers anticipated that the contracts would be sanctioned under the provisions of the "Helms-Burton law". In
addition, the buy-out by US groups of European cruising societies, which moored their vessels in Cuba, cancelled the projects in 2002-03. The obstacles
imposed by the United States, in violation of the Chicago Convention on civil aviation, to the sale or the rental of planes, to the supply of kerosene and to
access to new technologies (e-reservation, radio-localization), will lead to a loss of 150 million dollars in 2003. The impact on the FDI is also very
unfavourable. The institutes of promotion of FDI in Cuba received more than 500 projects of cooperation from US companies, but none of them could be
realized - not even in the pharmaceutical and biotechnological industry, where Cuba has a very attractive potential. The transfer of currencies from the
United States is limited (less than 100 dollars a month per family) and some European banks had to restrain their commitment under the pressure of the
US which let them know that indemnities would be required if the credits were maintained. In Cuba, the embargo penalizes the activities of the bank and
finance, insurance, petrol, chemical products, construction, infrastructures and transports, shipyard, agriculture and fishing, electronics and computing,
but also for the export sectors (where the US property prevailed before 1959), such as those of sugar, whose recovery is impeded by the interdiction of
access to the fist international stock exchange of raw materials (New York), of nickel, tobacco, rum.

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High risk for Cuban economic collapse now is the key time,
only the plan solves
Morris 11 (Emily, London Metropolitan University UK, FORECASTING CUBAS ECONOMY: 2, 5,
AND 20 YEARS, Presented at the international symposium Cuba Futures: Past and Present, organized
by The Cuba Project Bildner Center for Western Hemisphere Studies at The Graduate Center/CUNY,
http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/cuba/cubaforecasting.pdf)
Risks in the medium term

Five years is a very long time in politics, and with the near certainty of both a
generational transition and a deep and disruptive overhaul of the system of
economic management and structure of relative prices, forecasting is particularly
hazardous. The one-party political system will be severely tested. If the
government were to collapse, the range of possible scenarios would be huge: the
economy might collapse in to chaos and hyperinflation amidst violent
conflict, or enjoy a US financed boom , depending on the circumstances.
However, It is worth noting that, as ever, the probability of government collapse
remains smaller than is estimated by those hoping for a political transition. If it were
not, the exercise of forecasting a survival scenario would perhaps be a futile one.
Forecasting Cubas Economy: 2, 5, and 20 Years 21 Even in the absence of
political collapse, there remain substantial risks of economic instability
and weakness. The reform process, which includes the removal of subsidies and
extensive realignment of relative prices and incomes, will create inflationary
pressures that will be hard to contain. The forecast of a steady rise in average
productivity is derived from an expectation that the positive impact of the
introduction of market signals and improvement in incentives will outweigh the
disruption costs. The slow rate of average real income growth would imply
continued pressure on the government to maintain subsidies for basic goods
and extend welfare provision to households struggling to adapt to the new
conditions, draining fiscal resources and increasing the temptation to raise taxes on
productive activity to levels that discourage innovation and enterprise, or push
activity back from the formal economy to the informal sector. If Cubas reform wave
were to coincide with deteriorating external conditions, rather than the relatively
benign scenario presented in the EIUs global assumptions, the political and
economic risks would be greater. The danger of upsets in the global economy
remains heightened by concerns about high debt levels and sluggish growth in the
EU and Europe, and inflated asset prices among the rapidly-growing economies of
the developing world. A deterioration in global conditions might feed through to
Cuban economic performance through collapse in the nickel price or surge in oil or
food prices, or a sudden contraction in tourist arrivals. The single event that would
have the greatest negative impact on Cubas economic prospects, however, would
be the replacement of Hugo Chvez with a hostile regime in Venezuela, particularly
if this were to coincide with high international oil prices. A similar degree of
shock , but on the positive side, would arise from the lifting of the US

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travel ban, opening of the US market to Cuban exports or removal of
restrictions on US and multilateral financial flows to Cuba.
Economic engagement allows the Cuban nickel and sugar

industries to diversify the economy

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Secondly, direct US engagement could allow two of the nation's largest

revenue generators, the Cuban nickel and sugar industries, to expand into
more capital-intensive energy research through university and private-sector
partnerships.
Most Cuban exports are currently destined for Canada, China, or the
Netherlands as raw or lightly refined materials. Yet, with funding for
technology and without the fear of embargo-based repercussions from the
US, Cuban research opportunities and export products could have the
potential to diversify.

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Allowing greater travel from the U.S. increases earnings across
Cuba
Lifting the embargo would be no panacea. Other countries invest in and trade with
Cuba to no obvious political impact. And the lack of widespread economic reform
makes it easier for the regime rather than the people to collect the benefits of
trade, in contrast to China. Still, more U.S. contact would have an impact.
Argued trade specialist Dan Griswold, American tourists would boost the
earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis, sell art, and operate
restaurants in their homes. Those dollars would then find their way to the
hundreds of freely priced farmers markets, to carpenters, repairmen, tutors,
food venders, and other entrepreneurs.
The Cuban Embargo has impoverished the Cuban people while

not hurting the government
Daniel Griswold 9 (director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute
in Washington)
June 15, 2009. // sb
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/us-embargo-cuba-is-failure
The embargo has been a failure by every measure. It has not changed the
course or nature of the Cuban government. It has not liberated a single
Cuban citizen. In fact, the embargo has made the Cuban people a bit more
impoverished, without making them one bit more free . Americans of their
freedom to travel and has cost US farmersand other producers billions of dollars of
potential exports

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV.

US Exports slowdown threatens the global economy
Johnathan House and Eric Morath Staff Writers July 4, 2013Wall Street Journal
"Export Declines Signal Headwinds Ahead Trade Gap Widens 12% as Imports Climb;
Economists Cut GDP Estimates" Updated, 9:45 p.m. ET
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324853704578583352356200418.
html
WASHINGTONThe world's economic growth is increasingly falling on the
shoulders of U.S. consumers. But at the same time, a slowdown in U.S.
exports is threatening to restrain the already fitful recovery. U.S. imports
jumped in May, reflecting an emerging rebound in American demand for foreign
products other than oil. At the same time, a continued softening in U.S. exports
highlighted the global troubles weighing on American firms trying to sell their goods
abroad while demand from key trading partners falters. The weakness in
American exports represents a mounting headwind for the U.S. economy,
primarily due to a prolonged recession in Europe and China's slowdown
from its previous breakneck growth rate. Exports, which helped power the early
stages of the economic recovery, had supported U.S. growth until a year
ago. American businesses are already citing the dynamic as harmful. Joe Alvarado,
chairman and chief executive of Commercial Metals Co., told investors last week
that a decline in international sales for the Irving, Texas, steel producer contributed
to a 53% year-over-year drop in the company's earnings in its latest quarter.
"Extended weakness in global demand and significant overcapacity in
Europe and China have depressed steel prices and margins," Mr. Alvarado
said. "International markets remain more difficult and uncertain." A jump in
imports in May, on the other hand, underscored U.S. consumer spending as one of
the chief drivers of the domestic economic recovery alongside a resurgent U.S.
housing market. Apart from oil imports, which have been declining partly due to
rising domestic production, U.S. consumers are regaining their appetite for foreign
goods and supporting foreign manufacturers. American consumers served as an
important driver of global growth over the past decade until demand tumbled after
the recession started in 2007. Consumers have proven resilient since the start of
the year despite higher payroll taxes, modest job creation and weak wage growth.
U.S. demand for imports was broad-based with automobiles, consumer goods and
capital goods all showing healthy gains. "Import growthdoes impart some
optimism with regard to how the domestic consumer feels," economists at BBVA
said in a note to clients. U.S. exports fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% to
$187.06 billion in May from a month earlier, as demand from China and
other key economies faltered, according to figures released Wednesday by the
Commerce Department. Imports rose 1.9% to $232.09 billion. As a result, the
nation's trade gap widened 12% to $45.03 billion. Stripping out the effect of
declining oil imports, the May trade gap was the highest since September
2007. The widening trade gap led several economists to downgrade their estimates
for growth in the second quarter, which ended Sunday. The forecasting firm
Macroeconomic Advisers lowered its estimate of second-quarter growth by 0.4

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percentage point to 1.3%. In the first quarter, GDP rose 1.8%. Pierpont Securities
economist Stephen Stanley lowered his growth forecast for the period even more, to
0.5% from 1%. "This seems pretty dire," Mr. Stanley said. The world's increasing
reliance on the U.S. economy, which remains relatively soft, could pose
challenges for overall global growth in the coming months unless demand
rebounds quickly elsewhere.
Ending the embargo brings $1.2 billion a year for the U.S. and
fosters economic reforms in Cuba
Ending the embargo would have obvious economic benefits for both
Cubans and Americans. The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates American
losses alone from the embargo as much as $1.2 billion annually.
Expanding economic opportunities also might increase pressure within
Cuba for further economic reform. So far the regime has taken small steps,
but rejected significant change. Moreover, thrusting more Americans into
Cuban society could help undermine the ruling system. Despite Fidel Castros
decline, Cuban politics remains largely static. A few human rights activists have
been released, while Raul Castro has used party purges to entrench loyal elites.

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The embargo undermines relations with allies and restricts
trade that disadvantages U.S. small businessescosts the U.S.
billions every year
At present, the U.S. is largely alone in restricting access to Cuba. The

embargo has long been a point of friction between the United States and
allies in Europe, South America, and Canada. Every year since 1992, the U.S. has
been publically condemned in the United Nations for maintaining counterproductive
and worn out trade and migration restrictions against Cuba despite the fact that
nearly all 5,911 U.S. companies nationalized during the Castro takeover have
dropped their claims.
Moreover, since Europeans, Japanese, and Canadians can travel and
conduct business in Cuba unimpeded, the sanctions are rather toothless.
The State Department has argued that the cost of conducting business in Cuba is
only negligibly higher because of the embargo. For American multinational
corporations wishing to undertake commerce in Cuba, foreign branches find it easy
to conduct exchanges.
Yet, estimates of the sanctions annual cost to the U.S. economy range
from $1.2 to $3.6 billion, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Restrictions on trade disproportionately affect U.S. small businesses who
lack the transportation and financial infrastructure to skirt the embargo.
These restrictions translate into real reductions in income and
employment for Americans in states like Florida, where the unemployment
rate currently stands at 8.1 percent.

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Economic decline causes global war
Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction U.S. Department
of Defense, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of
Economic Crises, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political
Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood
of external conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree
of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence
behaviour of interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at
systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on
the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work
on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms in the global economy are
associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often
bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such,
exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of
relative power (see also Gilpin. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power
balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver, 1995). Alternatively,
even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive
environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining
power (Werner. 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic
cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict
among major, medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and
connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain
unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland's (1996, 2000) theory of trade
expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of
states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from
trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if
the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace
items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states
will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could
potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or
because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4 Third, others
have considered the link between economic decline and external armed
conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong
correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly
during periods of economic downturn. They write: The linkages between
internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing.
Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour.
Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which
international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg &
Hess, 2002. p. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in
the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana, 2004), which has the
capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore, crises

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generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. "Diversionary theory"

suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline,
sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external
military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996),
DeRouen (1995). and Blomberg, Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence
showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated.
Gelpi (1997), Miller (1999), and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the
tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states
than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more
susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen
(2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic
performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are
statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. In summary, recent
economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in
the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship links
economic decline with external conflict at systemic, dyadic and national
levels.5 This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has
not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more
attention.

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV. SQ EMBARGO

INTERNALS
The embargo is wholly ineffective and just hurts the U.S.
economy and undermine progress in Cuba
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The US has had normal trade relations with many countries just as
problematic, if not more so, than Cuba, including China, Vietnam (President
Clinton lifted the 1975 trade embargo in 1994), and even the Soviet Union
throughout the Cold War.8 In an era of global economic integration, maintaining
strong economic relations with other countries is vital to growing the economy. The
rest of the world has recognized that Cuba does not pose a threat and has
normalized trade relations, leaving the US alone in its imposition of the
embargo. As long as other countries are willing to supply Cuba with all of
its needs, the US embargo will never be effective and will only hurt the US
economy. Furthermore, by blaming the US for Cubas lack of economic
prosperity and using the embargo as a scapegoat, Cubas leadership has
eluded responsibility for the poor standard of living on the island and
routinely portrays the US as an oppressor of the Cuban people.
Keeping the Embargo costs the US trillions and undermines

Cuban reforms
UNDPI 12
(United Nations Department of Public Information 67th General Assembly). November 13,
2012. ARCHAIC, PUNITIVE EMBARGO MUST BE CONSIGNED TO HISTORY BOOKS.
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2012/ga11311.doc.htm Accessed 7/4/13 //SH
Keeping this policy in force is not in the national interest of the U nited States,
he said. Quite the contrary, it harmed the interest of American citizens
and companies, especially in times of economic crisis and high unemployment.
Moreover, there was no legitimate or moral reason to maintain the blockade, which
was anchored in the Cold War. Indeed, it is just a weapon in the hands of an
ever more exiguous, isolated, violent and arrogant minority, he said. As was stated
in recent Secretary-Generals report on the matter, the economic damage
accumulated over more than 50 years, until 2011, amounted to one trillion six
billion dollars. Any sensible person could figure out the living standards and
development levels that we could have achieved if we had had those resources
available, he added, calling the blockade one of the main causes of Cubas
economic problems and the major obstacle to its economic and social
development.

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV. LIFTING SOLVES
Increasing economic engagement by ending the embargo

increases growth in both countries
Cal Dooley, Oct. 21, 11, President and CEO, American Chemistry Council, The UN, the US
Embargo, and the 20 year rout; 10 Reasons to Oppose the Embargo, CubaCentral,
One of Winston Churchills most repeated quotes is, You can always count on
Americans to do the right thing- after they have tried everything else. It is time
for President Obama and Congress to do the right thing, cast off the failed
embargo of Cuba, and embrace a policy of engagement that will provide
economic opportunities for U.S. farmers and businesses as well the
workers they employ. Doing the right thing will improve economic
conditions in both the U.S. and Cuba and will also over time contribute to
greater social stability in the Caribbean region.
Lifting the embargo boosts the U.S. economy by expanding

markets
JT//JEDI
(citing Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez)

Rodriguez said the elimination of the embargo would provide a muchneeded tonic for the sluggish U.S. economy.
"In a moment of economic crisis, lifting the blockade would contribute to
the United States a totally new market of 11 million people. It would
generate employment and end the situation in which American companies
cannot compete in Cuba," he said.

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV. LIFTING SOLVES

Lifting the embargo would be a boost for the U.S. economy
JT//JEDI
Cuba has the potential to be a sizeable market for US goods should the
embargo come to an end. Despite all of the trade restrictions, the US exported
$710 million worth of food to Cuba in 2008, making the US Cubas largest food
supplier.9 A March 2010 Texas A&M University study found that expanding
agricultural trade and travel between the US and Cuba could result in
$365 million in increased sales of US goods in Cuba and create 6,000 new
jobs in the US.10
Lifting the embargo boosts economic growth in the U.S. &

Cuba
JOEL BRINKLEY, 12/18/12, Cuba embargo isn't working but isn't going away, Politico, ACC. 61-2013,
http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/cuba-embargo-isnt-working-but-isnt-going-away-85281.html,
JT//JEDI
Now an argument can be made that if the half-century of political paralysis on

this issue can be overcome, both Cuba and the United States would
benefit. American tourists would most likely pour into Cuba, buying cigars,
staying in beachfront hotels spending money in the Cuban economy. And
American businesses would find an eager new market for a range of products
beyond the food and medicine they are already authorized to sell.
We cannot afford an obsolete ideological war against Cuba, Richard Slatta, a
history professor at North Carolina State University who specializes in Latin
America, wrote in an op-ed last month. The embargo against Cuba denies
North Carolina businesses and farmers access to a major, proximate
market.
Lifting the embargo is a win-win situation: Removing travel

restrictions alone would create an economic feedback loop
that creates jobs and growth for both sides
ACC. 6-13-2013, JT//JEDI
By allowing free travel to and from Cuba, potential for the marketing and
sale of agricultural and medical goods would expand enormously, further
boosting the economies of the U.S. and Cuba. The U.S. I nternational T Commission
estimated that if travel restrictions to Cuba were lifted, the number of
rade

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U.S. travelers would increase from less than 200,000 to between 550,00
and one million annually (U.S. International Trade Commission). The increase in
U.S. visitors would in turn increase demand for more and higher quality
goods and would provide more money for the government to purchase
U.S. goods, according to the Commission report. Allowing U.S. citizens to
travel to Cuba would boost the tourism industry in the U.S. and create
thousands of new jobs. Even lifting the travel restrictions on groups or
individuals directly engaged in U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba would be a
significant advancement. Business leaders and entrepreneurs from the
U.S. would gain a competitive edge by having the opportunity to travel to
Cuba and becoming familiar with the Cuban market and meting face-toface with their Cuban counterparts.

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV. Growth/Trade K2

Jobs
Job growth is slow; Growth policies that expand
trade are key to jobs.
Sean Hackbarth 6/7/13 U.S Chamber of Commerce Foundation
contributor, Unemployment Rate Rising to 7.6% Means We Need
Faster Economic Growth, Free Enterprise, ACC. 7/6/13, MRM
The trend for 2013 is slower job creation. From March through May, an average
of 155,000 jobs per month were created. Contrast that to February through April
when an average of almost 208,000 jobs per month were created, and January
through March when the average was 207,000 jobs per month. If small businesses
are any indication, this unfortunate trend will continue. Earlier in the week,
William Dunkelberg, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
chief economist previewed todays job numbers with disappointing news
about small business hiring:
After a five-month swing in the right direction, small firms were shrinking again
in May: Small employers reported an average gain of negative 0.04
workers per firmessentially zero. The news here is that the steady, but painfully
slow journey toward positive job creation cant seem to maintain any steam.
Another way to look at the health of the labor market is to look at the employment
rate--the employment-to-population ratio--which is as flat as a cast iron griddle.
Stanford University economist Edward Lazear writes in the Wall Street Journal:
In 2006, 63.4% of the working-age population was employed. That percentage
declined to a low of 58.2% in July 2011 and now stands at 58.6%. By this measure,
the labor market's health has barely changed over the past three years.
He explains why it feels like were living in a jobless recovery: Jobs are always
being created and destroyed, and the net number of jobs over the last 3 years
has increased. But so too has the size of the working-age population. Job growth
has been just slightly better than what it takes to keep the employed
proportion of the working-age population constant. That's why jobs still
seem so scarce. We need faster economic growth to create more jobs. It
means we need pro-growth policies that produce more American energy,
fix our uncompetitive tax code, rebuild our infrastructure, expand trade
and tourism, reform the regulatory process, stop lawsuit abuse, fix our
broken immigration system, and reform entitlement programs. In short, we
need a pro-growth agenda from Washington to brighten up these gloomy job
numbers.

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV. Jobs low now
Job growth is incredibly slow

The Huffington Post 6/7/13 U.S. Not Likely To Reach Pre-Recession
Jobs Levels For Many, Many Years,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/07/us-pre-recession-jobs_n_3403871.html ,
ACC. 7/5/13, MRM
Last month's tepid job growth offered another reminder that were a long way off
from getting back to where we were before the recession. The U.S. added 175,000
jobs in May, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.6 percent, the Labor
Department announced Friday. At that pace of job growth, it will take more
than 6 years for America to get back down to its pre-recession jobless
rate, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. By
other measures, it could take even longer for the U.S. to reach pre-recession levels
of employment. If employers add 208,000 jobs per month -- thats the average
pace of job growth during the best years of the 2000s -- then it will take
until April 2020 to close the jobs gap, according to an analysis from the
Hamilton Project, a Brookings Institute research group aimed at advancing growth.
The jobs gap is the number of jobs the U.S. has to create to get back to prerecession employment levels, while still absorbing the new job-seekers who enter
the labor force, according to The Hamilton Project. Making matters worse is
lawmakers' recent insistence on slashing budgets. Current austerity measures
will leave the U.S. with 2 million fewer jobs by 2019, a recent study from
the left-leaning Center for American Progress found.nced Friday. At that pace
of job growth, it willtake more than 6 years for America to get back down to its prerecession jobless rate, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning
think tank.

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV. Impact Ext.

Economic collapse causes extinction
Kerpen 8
Phil, National Review Online, October 29, , Don't Turn Panic Into Depression,
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/29/opinion/main4555821.shtml
Its important that we avoid all these policy errors - not just for the sake of our prosperity, but
for our survival. The Great Depression, after all, didnt end until the advent of World War II, the most
destructive war in the history of the planet. In a world of nuclear and biological weapons and
non-state terrorist organizations that breed on poverty and despair, another global economic
breakdown of such extended duration would risk armed conflicts on an even greater scale. To be
sure, Washington already has stoked the flames of the financial panic. The president and the Treasury secretary
did the policy equivalent of yelling fire in a crowded theater when they insisted that Congress immediately pass
a bad bailout bill or face financial Armageddon. Members of Congress splintered and voted against the bill
before voting for it several days later, showing a lack of conviction that did nothing to reassure markets. Even
Alan Greenspan is questioning free markets today, placing our policy fundamentals in even greater jeopardy. But
after the elections, all eyes will turn to the new president and Congress in search of reassurance that the
fundamentals of our free economy will be supported. That will require the shelving of any talk of trade
protectionism, higher taxes, and more restrictive labor markets. The stakes couldnt be any higher.
SLIDING FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH MEANS WE CANT PROTECT

AGAINST COMING WAR, PLAGUES, ASTEROIDS, AND THE ICE
AGE
George Reisman, Pepperdine Univ. Prof. Emeritus of Economics, 8.
A Word To Environmentalists, February 19, http://archive.mises.org/7800/a-word-toenvironmentalists/, ACC. 6-26-12, JT
The answer to the question of how best to cope with intolerable global
warming caused by Nature is obviously the maintenance of the free
market, not its replacement by Socialist central planning. Indeed, the answer is to make
the free market freer than it now isas much freer as is humanly possible. This is
because while the primary reason for advocating a free market is the
greater prosperity and enjoyment it brings to everyone in the course of
his normal, everyday life, a major, secondary reason is to have the
greatest possible industrial base available for coping with catastrophic
events, whether those events be war, plague, meteors from outer space,
intolerable global warming, or a new ice age.

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV. Exports low now

US Exports Down
Isabella Zhong. July 8th 2013 Writer for Medill News Service,."May Trade Deficit
Much Larger than Expected." UPI. United Press International, Inc Web. 09 July 2013.
<http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2013/07/08/May-trade-deficit-much-largerthan-expected/9501373322723/>. //SF
The monthly U.S. trade deficit widened to $45 billion in May, as imports
rose to their second-highest level on record.
The increase in demand for foreign goods and services was another
sign of growing momentum in the countrys economic recovery. The gap in May grew by a hefty 12.1 percent compared to the $40.1 billion deficit recorded in April. It also
exceeded the $40.1 billion deficit forecasted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg before Wednesdays announcement. Mays wider deficit was mainly due to burgeoning U.S.
imports of goods and services. Total imports increased to $232.1 billion in May from $227.7 billion in April. That stronger volume, second only to the record $234.3 billion of
imports recorded in March 2012, was largely due to a $4 billion-dollar jump in the countrys consumption of foreign goods -- a sign that American consumers are opening their
wallets. Consumer goods, industrial supplies and materials, and automotive vehicles and parts accounted for the strongest areas of growth in imports, according to the Bureau
of Economic Analysis. . This growth in demand for foreign goods came amid strengthening confidence among U.S. households and firms. The Thompson Reuters/University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index revealed that consumer confidence swelled during recent months and was at a six-year high in May, as jobs and income data brightened.
On the flipside,
U.S. exports of goods and services shrunk slightly to $187.1 billion in
May from $187.6 billion in April. Dropoffs in exports of consumer goods and
industrial supplies were the main cause of this decrease. Offshore demand
for U.S. products was likely suppressed by persistent economic dampness
in Europe and slowing growth in China. On top of that, the countrys
exports also became less competitive in the international marketplace as the
U.S. dollar picked up strength. The trade balance for June will be released Aug. 6. It is likely to be another strong month for imports as confidence among U.S. households and
firms gained more ground last month. In the meantime, take a look at the slideshow below to discover what items (as seen around Washington D.C.) made the list of the
countrys top 10 imports for the year to date.
Weakness in the Chinese Economy is dragging down US

Exports
PRNnewswire. July 8th 2013 "Commodity Market Decreased in June Amid
Continued Slowing Growth Signals from China." Wallstreetjournal.org. Copyright

2013 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.,. Web. 9 July 2013.
http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20130708-905248.html //SF
Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities in Credit Suisse's Asset
Management business, said, "Macroeconomic news out of China weighed
on commodities in June. With China now shifting to a more moderate rate of growth and modestly improving conditions elsewhere, it is likely that
supply divergences are playing an increasing role at a time when the higher correlation observed between other asset classes and commodities since 2008 has begun to
normalize. This may signal a return to a more fundamentally-driven market. Within the current trend, the pace of supply growth is likely to remain the key factor in driving
commodity returns." Christopher Burton, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy, added, "Markets continue to be caught between good
economic news being positive, indicating that the recovery is gaining traction, or good economic news being negative as it may mean monetary policy will tighten. While the
pace of these programs may eventually soften, we believe that most major central banks will continue to err on the side of providing more stimulus until the economy improves
elevated." The Dow

Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return decreased 4.71% in June. Overall,
15 out of 22 index constituents posted negative returns. Precious Metals
was the worst performing sector, down 12.27%, on persistent worries over
the US Federal Reserve's plan to wind down its monetary stimulus
program and the rally of the US dollar in the second half of the month.
Industrial Metals declined 7.11% as a preliminary survey showed that China's factory activity weakened to a nine-month low in June
rather than risk tightening too much. In the meantime, while inflation continues to be muted, the risk of unexpected inflation remains

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as demand faltered. This may heighten risks that a second quarter slowdown could be sharper than expected and increase pressure on the Chinese central bank to loosen
policy. Agriculture ended the month lower, down 4.16%, pressured by higher-than-expected ending corn stocks and further data showing larger-than-expected US acreages
planted despite the earlier weather related planting delays. News that Australia's new-crop wheat production increased 15% from a year ago added to concerns over larger
. Energy decreased 2.55%, led by Natural Gas,

following the higher-than-consensus storage injections in June as reported by the US
Energy Information Administration. Livestock was the best performing sector, up
3.10%, with both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs ending the month higher. The USDA lowered
its forecast for 2013 pork production and reported lower feeder cattle
placements for May than a year ago.
global supplies. Australia is one of the world's largest wheat exporters

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U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH ADV. Exports low now

US Exports Down Widening the Deficit
Martin Crutsinger, July 9th 2013. "U.S. Trade Gap Widened in May as Exports
Weakened." Business Money US Trade Gap Widened in May as Exports Weakened

Comments. N.p., n.d. Web. <http://business.time.com/2013/07/03/u-s-trade-gapwidened-in-may-as-exports-weakened/>. //SF
(WASHINGTON)The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to its highest level in
six months as a sluggish global economy depressed U.S. exports.Fewer
exports mean U.S. growth in the April-June quarter could be weaker than
previously forecast.The trade deficit rose to $45 billion in May,up12.1percent
from$40.1billioninApril,theCommerceDepartmentsaidWednesday.Itwasthelargesttradegapsince
November. Exports slipped 0.3 percent to $187.1 billion. Sales of American
farm products dropped to their lowest point in more than two years. U.S.
exportshavebeenhurtbyrecessionsinmanyEuropeancountries.Importsrose1.9percentto$232.1
billion.Importsofautosandothernonpetroleumproductshitanalltimehigh.The U.S. trade
deficit is running at an annual rate of $501.2 billion, 6.3 percent lower
than last years gap. A trade gap can restrain growth because it means
consumers and businesses are spending more on foreign goods than
companies are taking in from overseas sales.PaulDales,seniorU.S.economistatCapitalEconomics,saidthelarger
tradegapforMayindicatesthateconomicgrowthlastquartercouldbeevenweakerthanthesluggish1.5percentannualratehehadpreviouslypredicted.EconomistsatBarclayssaidthehigher
deficithadledthemtodowngradetheirgrowthforecastforthesecondquarterfrom1.6percentto1percent.TheU.S.economyexpandedatonlya1.8percentannualrateinthefirstthree
monthsoftheyear,theCommerceDepartmentsaidlastweek.Thatwasmuchslowerthanitspreviousestimateofa2.4percentrate.Economistssaytheythinkgrowthwillreboundsomewhat
inthesecondhalfofthisyearastheeffectofgovernmentspendingcutsandtaxincreasesbeginstowearoff.(MORE:China,theU.S.andaSpecialRelationshipintheMaking:5Shared
EconomicChallenges)ForMay,exportstothe27nationEuropeanUnionwereup6.4percent.Butoverthepastfivemonths,exportstothisregionhavedeclined6.3percentfromthesame
periodin2012.Europehasbeenhurtbyaprolongeddebtcrisis,whichhasledtorecessionsacrossthecontinent.TheU.S.deficitwithChinajumped15.6percentto$27.9billioninMay.Thats
closetothealltimemonthlyhighsetinNovember.Sofarthisyear,theU.S.deficitwithChina,thelargestwithanycountry,isrunning3percenthigherthanlastyear.TheUnitedStatesand
ChinawillholdhighleveltalksinWashingtonnextweek.Theywillseektoresolvedifferencesinsuchareasascybersecurity,theftofintellectualpropertyandChinascurrencypolicies.U.S.
manufacturerscontendthatChinaismanipulatingitscurrencytogaintradeadvantages.Importsofforeignmadeautosandautopartsjumped3.1percenttoarecordof$26billioninMay.
Petroleumimportssurged4.4percentto$30.9billion.ExportsofU.S.madeautosandautopartsalsosetarecordinMayof$13.1billion.Butexportsoffarmproductsfellto$9.8billion,the
lowestlevelsinceSeptember2010.Shipmentsofwheat,soybeansandcornwerealldown.SlowergrowthoverseashasweighedonU.S.manufacturingthisyear.Butreportsshowthatfactories
arestartingtoseesomeimprovement.TheInstituteforSupplyManagementsaidmanufacturingactivitygrewinJuneaftershrinkinginApril.AndtheCommerceDepartmentsaidordersto
U.S.factoriesroseinMay,liftedbythethirdstraightmonthofstrongerbusinessinvestment.Ahousingrecoveryandsteadyjobgrowthhavehelpedoffsettheweaknessinmanufacturing.And
theFederalReservesaidlastmonththatitexpectsgrowthtostrengtheninthenextyear.ChairmanBenBernankesaidtheFedcouldscalebackitsbondbuyinglaterthisyearandenditnext
yeariftheeconomycontinuedtostrengthen.Hiscommentssentstocksfalling,andtheyieldonthe10yearTreasurybondjumped.Stockshavesincereboundedandtheyieldonthe10year
Treasurynotehasdippedsincethemiddleoflastweek.FavorablereportsontheU.S.economyhavehelped.AndseveralFedmembershaveclarifiedthatanytaperingoftheFedsbondbuying
wouldhingeoneconomicimprovement,notacalendardate.Readmore:http://business.time.com/2013/07/03/ustradegapwidenedinmayasexportsweakened/#ixzz2YaMEaCzs

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T ANS. Economic engagement

Removing embargo is economic engagement
Ribas 10 (Joseph, The Cuban Embargo: Why US Sanctions Fail and What to do About it, Volume 2
Issue 1 RURJ Spring 2010, http://scholarship.rollins.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
article=1004&context=rurj), ACC. 7/5/2013
Simply ending the embargo in favor of engagement would be
leap in
policy action , a leap that ought not be taken without first exploring other
options. In taking the route of engagement, specifically economic
engagement, it would be inconvenient, if not virtually impossible, to reattain
an embargo policy.

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T ANS. INCREASE / FX
Counter-interpretation: economic engagement includes the
removal of barriers to economic incentives solves their limits
disad
Haas 2000 (Richard, President of CFR, Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to
Punitive Policies, Survival;, vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000, pp. xxxx,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer
%20haass/2000survival.pdf)
Architects of engagement strategies can choose from a wide variety of
incentives. Economic engagement might offer tangible incentives such as
export credits, investment insurance or promotion, access to technology,
loans and economic aid.3 Other equally useful economic incentives involve
the removal of penalties such as trade embargoes , investment bans or high
tariffs, which have impeded economic relations between the United States and the
target country. Facilitated entry into the economic global arena and the
institutions that govern it rank among the most potent incentives in todays
global market.
Prefer our interpretation

1) Ground: the neg gets more & predictable ground to read
disads or counterplans based off specific parts of the
embargo on top of generics based off increasing economic
engagement
2) Education: the embargo is at the core of the past 50 years
of literature on Cuba in-depth research on all aspects of
the embargo is a pre-requisite to policy discussions about
engagement
3) Limits: only our interpretation limits Cuba AFFs to
engagement restricted in the current embargo their
interpretation expands the topic to include new forms of
engagement. If its Effects, then no Cuba Aff. Is topical
Collapses half the topicindependently undermines Aff &
Neg ground & Education

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Default to reasonability narrow interpretations are flawed
policy, economic engagement includes the AFF, prefer federal
sources
USDS 9 (What is Total Economic Engagement? http://2001-2009.state.gov/e/eeb/92986.htm),
ACC. 7/5/2013
Total Economic Engagement seeks to integrate and coordinate all U.S.

economic instruments and programs into our regional and country strategies.
The Bureau of Economic, Energy and Business Affairs (EEB) broad cross-section of
economic disciplines, interagency contacts, and expertise in such areas as trade,
finance, energy, development, transportation, and telecommunications help ensure
this coordination. EEB is actively involved in the entire range of international
economic issues affecting Americas security and well-being. Our priorities extend from securing reliable,
sustainable energy supplies to increasing market access for U.S. goods and services. Protection of American interests, such as
intellectual property rights, fair play in international business, and shutting down terrorist access to financial networks, is not only
part of our work, it is the foundation on which our efforts rest. But promoting U.S. economic and security interests is not a short-term
endeavor; dealing creatively with emerging markets and alleviating poverty are priorities that are even more important in the era of
rapid globalization than they were in the wake of World War II. To quote Franklin D. Roosevelt: True individual freedom cannot exist
without economic security and independence. People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.
Poverty and political unrest walk hand-in-hand, and too many countries economic situations offer little hope to their citizens.
However, the economic landscape does not need to remain dormant. We believe, the crop of economic security, individual
prosperity and political stability can be grown through total economic engagement. Total economic engagement looks beyond the
current practice of using financial development assistance as the only ox at the plow. We know that developing countries own the
keys to their own economic success. Just as democracy relies on the educated and active common man, so a healthy economy rests
on the liberated individual. Ronald Reagan summed it up well: We who live in free market societies believe that growth, prosperity
and ultimately human fulfillment, are created from the bottom up, not the government down. Only when the human spirit is
allowed to invent and create, only when individuals are given a personal stake in deciding economic policies and benefiting from
their success Only then can societies remain economically alive, dynamic, progressive, and free. Our goal, therefore, must be the
We must cultivate conditions

for private sector growth, investment and trade. This cannot be
accomplished through Official Development Assistance (ODA) funds alone.
Foreign assistance must support a developing countrys own effort to improve their
economic climate. Total economic engagement is putting all of the players to
the same plow. EEB is harnessing trade and economic policy formation,
proper governance, and ODA activities together. The bureau also integrates
the American individual. Working with U.S. citizen-partners participating in
developing economies abroad is a key element of total economic
engagement. An accurate accounting of a nations total engagement must
creation of the right conditions for individual economic growth and success.
include economic policies as well as, trade, remittances, and foreign

direct investment. In these areas, the U.S. leads the world in total economic
engagement with the developing world. The private donations of American citizens,
military emergency aid and peacekeeping and government assistance provide the
primary sources for development financing.

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Sanctions preclude engagement
Fisk 98 (Daniel, Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs National Security Council, HOW
SANCTIONS CAN AFFECT U.S. POLICY INTERESTS,
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/congress/1998_h/h980603df.htm), ACC. 7/5/2013
In discussing "sanctions" there are several levels that should be kept in mind. First,
there are private trade and investment activities. These involve activities
which do not rely on U.S. subsidies, but which may be subject to negotiated
agreements (e.g., GATT, NAFTA). These, then, are further divided into activities
which may entail a legal entitlement and activities in which a government does not
interfere with the ability of its own citizens to engage in economic pursuits. In these
cases, the United States can dictate whether its nationals can or cannot
engage in all or certain economic activities with another nation. And there will
be obligations that other nations will deem it appropriate, if not essential, that the
United States respect: for instance, benefits extended by the United States as part
of the GATT or NAFTA.
Removing sanctions increases engagement

Thornton 12 ("U.S. Conditionally Suspends Two Key Economic Sanctions Against Burma",
7/17/12, http://www.skadden.com/insights/us-conditionally-suspends-two-key-economic-sanctionsagainst-burma), ACC. 7/5/2013
On July 11, 2012, the U.S. Department of the Treasurys Office of Foreign Assets
Control (OFAC) issued general licenses General License Nos. 16 and 17 that
substantially lift two key features of the U.S. economic sanctions against
Burma (Myanmar): the ban on new investment in Burma by U.S. persons and the
ban on exportation of financial services to Burma. These general licenses
implement President Obamas announcement in May 2012 that the U.S.
government would increase economic engagement with Burma. The general
licenses are in line with similar steps undertaken in the European Union, Canada
and Australia to lift their own sanctions with respect to Burma. As a result, there
may be new opportunities for many companies to enter Burmese markets.

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POLITICSWIN FOR OBAMA / PC ANS.

Obama will easily push the plan through CongressEconomic
growth & failed states
JT//JEDI
Achieving Congressional approval will be difficult although not impossible
in the present economic recession. The economic benefits associated with new
business opportunities in Cuba can encourage skeptics in Congress to
mobilize. As a counterargument to a continued embargo, the President
can point to the dangers associated with failed states like Somalia
inadvertently caused by the very environment sanctions create. A strong
communication strategy to gain American support coupled with a softening Cuban
American stance, shrouded in economic opportunity, could encourage
Congressional dialogue and resolution. President Obama can succeed if he sets
realistic goals and expresses these to the American public before the media or his
opposition defines these.
Empirically, easing the embargo is a win for Obama

MacAskil 11 (Ewen MacAskill, Chief Washington Correspondant for the Guardian,
14 January 2011, Barack Obama acts to ease US embargo on Cuba,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/15/barack-obama-us-embargo-cuba)//mw
Barack Obama has eased America's long-standing embargo on Cuba,
allowing many Americans to travel there for the first time and increasing the
amounts that they can invest in the island. Other changes announced by the
president will allow all US international airports to accept flights to and from Cuba;
at present, chartered flights are restricted to Miami and a handful of other airports.
The moves represent an important step to rapprochement between the US
and Cuba. Almost as soon as Fidel Castro's movement took power in the 1959
revolution, the US began an embargo that it has maintained ever since. Relations,
though still tentative, have improved since Castro gave up the leadership in favour
of his brother Raul, the accession of Obama to the presidency, and the release of
some political prisoners in Cuba. The move will help Obama's standing with
the American left. In a lengthy press release yesterday evening, the White House
said: "President Obama has directed the secretaries of state, treasury and homeland
security to take a series of steps to continue efforts to reach out to the Cuban
people in support of their desire to freely determine their country's future." It
added: "The president has directed that changes be made to regulations and
policies governing: purposeful travel; non-family remittances; and US airports
supporting licensed charter flights to and from Cuba. These measures will increase
people-to-people contact; support civil society in Cuba; enhance the free flow of
information to, from, and among the Cuban people; and help promote their
independence from Cuban authorities."

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POLITICSPLAN POPULAR/PUBLIC
Removing the Embargo is widely popular across the board
Reid 12 --- Doctorate Professor of Sociology
Angus, Most Americans Willing to Re-Establish Ties with Cuba (02/06/12)
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44366/most-americans-willing-to-re-establish-tieswith-cuba/ JMR
A majority of respondents also wants to lift the travel ban that prevents most Americans from
visiting Cuba. People in the United States are ready to change their countrys
interaction with Cuba, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. In the online survey of
a representative national sample of 1,008 American adults, three-in-five respondents (62%) agree with
the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba, while one-in-four (23%) disagree. Majorities
of Independents (67%), Democrats (64%) and Republicans (56%) agree with

re-instituting to bilateral ties. In March 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama eased travel
restrictions to Cuba, and allowed U.S. citizens to travel to the island for religious and cultural reasons.
Most Americans (57%) believe it is time to lift the travel ban that prevents
most Americans from visiting the island. Half of Americans (51%) would lift the
trade embargo with Cuba that has been in place since the 1960s, while three-in-ten (29%)
disagree. Most Democrats (53%) and Independents (55%) support ending the embargo, but
Republicans are not as convinced (46%). The notion of supporting non-governmental groups in Cuba in
order to foster protests against the current regime did not resonate with Americans. Across the
country, only 35 per cent of respondents endorse this course of action. Two-thirds of
Hispanics (67%) support re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba,

and their views on the travel ban and the trade embargo mirror those of
the entire sample of Americans.
American public supports lifting the embargo

Alvaro Vargas Llosa, 9, Senior Fellow of The Center on Global Prosperity at The
Independent Institute, April, 29, Should the Cuban Embargo be Lifted?,
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2492, ACC. 6-15-2013,
JT//JEDI
Most Americans seem to reject the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba.
According to a Washington Post/ABC poll, 57 percent of Americans now
oppose the policy. A survey by Bendixen & Associates shows that only 42
percent of Cuban-Americans continue to back it.

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POLITICSPLAN POPULAR/PUBLIC (bipart)

The vast majority of Americans favor lifting the Cuban
Embargo
Cuba Policy Foundation, July 5th, 2013, ACC. 7/5/2013,
http://www.cubafoundation.org/why-2.html ///JMR
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT A NEW POLICY TOWARD CUBA. Every recent poll of
Americans, including surveys from independent pollsters, shows a majority of
Americans favors lifting the U.S. embargo -- with even bigger majorities favoring an
end to other embargo-era policies. Americans want to lift the embargo by a
margin of 52-to-32 percent, according to a Cuba Policy Foundation poll
conducted in 2001 by a nonpartisan independent polling firm. By a 63-to-33
percent margin, Americans believe lifting the embargo would be the most
effective way to bring democracy to Cuba. And by a 63-to-24 percent
margin, Americans want the U.S. to start a formal dialogue with Cuba now.
Support for important incremental changes in U.S. policy is even stronger.
Overwhelming majorities want to lift the U.S. ban on travel to Cuba (67-to24 percent); to allow American companies to sell food to Cuba (71-to-22
percent); and to allow American companies to sell medicine to Cuba (76to-17 percent).

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POLITICSPLAN POPULAR/PUBLIC (bipart)

Lifting the Embargo has bipartisan, Cuban, and international
support to overcome opposition. Keeping the embargo
maintains the suffering of millionsmore probable and
outweighs the disad
Karon 10
Tony (Senior Editor of The Times), Do We Really Need an Embargo Against

Cuba? (April 2010)
http://www.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,48773,00.html ///JMR
No, you can't go to Cuba to see for yourself how little Elian is doing at least not
legally, anyway. Because despite agreeing a few days ago to relax
restrictions on selling food and medicine to Cuba, the House Republican
leadership, supported by a number of Democrats, held out against moves
to relax the law forbidding Americans from spending money in Cuba,
which effectively outlaws most tourism. But the Elian Gonzalez saga, coming hard on
the heels of Congress's permanently normalizing trade relations with China (and the Clinton
administration's easing of sanctions against Iran and North Korea), has raised again the question of
why the U.S. still maintains an economic embargo of Cuba. After all, it was imposed 38 years ago by
President Kennedy, and while it's been dutifully endorsed by all seven U.S. presidents since then, Fidel
Castro appears to be even more firmly entrenched in power than in Kennedy's time. In other words, it
may have had a profound effect on the Cuban economy, but the embargo
has been a singular failure in its primary mission to unseat the Cuban
dictator. And that has prompted a growing movement in the corridors of
power to reconsider the policy. Once the preserve of dedicated liberals and lefties,
opposition to the U.S. embargo on Cuba these days is an ever-expanding tent. The recent
congressional effort to relax aspects of the embargo was led by farm-state Republicans and echoed a
growing consensus even inside the GOP. The National Bipartisan Commission on Cuba, whose calls for
a comprehensive review of U.S. policy have thus far been rebuffed by President Clinton, includes not
only 16 GOP Senators (and eight Democrats), but also some of the GOP foreign policy heavyweights
lined up by the Bush campaign, including former Secretaries of State Kissinger, Schultz and
Eagleburger. And that's hardly surprising, since ending the embargo has long been
advocated by groupings as diverse as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the

Vatican and, reportedly, the bulk of democracy activists still living in Cuba.
While previous embargoes of countries such as Iran and Iraq have had the support
of most of the industrialized world, the only country consistently backing
Washington's Cuba policy is Israel. Yet, despite the burgeoning opposition,
advocates of the embargo continue to hold sway with the leadership of
both parties on Capitol Hill, and with both presidential candidates. Elian's enduiring legacy,
however, may be that he reopened a national debate in the U.S. on the future of Cuba policy.
Arguments Against the Embargo: It actually helps keep Castro in power: Never mind the fact that it's
failed to dislodge him after 38 years, the embargo is now Castro's catchall excuse for
every ill that plagues his decaying socialist society. It helps him paint the U.S. as
hostile and an imminent threat in the eyes of the Cuban people, which is how he rationalizes his
authoritarian politics. Opening the floodgates of trade will leave Castro with no
excuses, and interaction with the U.S. will hasten the collapse of his
archaic system. What's good for China is good for Cuba: China is a lot more repressive than
Cuba, and yet we've normalized trade relations with Beijing on the argument that trade will hasten

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reform and democratization. We're even lifting sanctions against North Korea despite the fact that their
missile program is supposedly a threat to our skies, whereas the Pentagon has long since concluded
that Cuba represents no threat to U.S. security. It's nonsensical to argue that trade induces better
behavior from communist regimes in China and North Korea, but will do the opposite in Cuba. It
mostly hurts the people it's supposed to help: You can be sure Fidel Castro isn't going
to bed hungry and or suffering through a headache because there's no Tylenol to be had. Yet
millions of his people are suffering all manner of deprivations that could be
eased by lifting an embargo that's never going to overthrow him anyway.

Stopping Cubans from benefiting from trade with the U.S. and interaction with American tourists leaves
Castro unscathed, but it deprives the Cuban people of a taste of freedom that could only undermine a
repressive regime.

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POLITICSGOP SUPPORTS
Republicans supports lifting the embargo-Reforms and failed
policy
Vogler 13
Dalton Vogler, in charge of research and writing articles February 25, 2013 Raul
Castro Brings Cuba Closer to Democracy
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/daltonvogler/2013/02/25/cuba-and-democracyn1520110
The succession of his brother Fidel Castro in 2006 led Raul to make numerous social
and economic changes, including lenience on travel constraints and the promotion
of private businesses. With Cubas growth limited by U.S. trade embargoes, new
talks are emerging to stop additional restrictions. Even prominent Republican
leaders such as former vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan support lifting the
embargo, the Cato Institute reports: The embargo doesnt work. It is a failed
policy. It was probably justified when the Soviet Union existed and posed a threat
through Cuba. I think its become more of a crutch for Castro to use to
repress his people. All the problems he has, he blames the American
embargo. Conservative politicians looking to repair their fractured message to
constituents could benefit from lifting the embargo. An end would demonstrate
Americas approval of Cubas progress, and a willingness to support Cuba
in transitioning away from socialist policies. As it stands this policy costs the
U.S. over $1 billion dollars in trading each year and prevents Cubans from
experiencing the benefits of capitalism. This isnt the same Cuba of thirty
years ago. Diplomat Wayne Smith predicts [a] younger, more liberal
generation of Cuban Americans with no memory of life in Cuba is coming
to the fore. For the first time in years, maybe there is some chance for a
change in policy.

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POLITICSAG LOBBY LINK TURN
The agricultural lobby will back the plan


JT//JEDI
For years, US farmers have lobbied Congress only somewhat successfully

to open Cuban markets, which are lucrative and feature low transportation costs.
Both sides could realize benefits from greater liberalization: relaxed
payment options for cash-strapped Cuba and the end of licenses and
quotas for US farmers. Despite the embargo, the US is Cuba's largest
supplier of food and its sixth-largest trading partner.
Farm bill loss re-energized the Ag lobby to push harder in

Congress
By Tom Steever June 26, 2013 Staff Writer for the Brownfield Ag News
"Importance of Farm Lobby" http://brownfieldagnews.com/2013/06/26/importanceof-farm-lobby/ Filed Under: News, USDA/Government Accessed: 7/9/13
A farm group lobbyist says last weeks farm bill failure in the House draws
attention to the importance of grassroots lobbying. The surprising defeat of
the farm bill re-energized farm groups to push for their members
interests, according to Colin Woodall, vice president of government affairs
for the National Cattlemens Beef Association. Its not just in the hands of
professional lobbyists, he said. Whether its the National Cattlemens Beef Association, National Corn
Growers, the Pork Producers, we know that theyre all talking to their members
telling them to go find their members of Congress while theyre at home
for Fourth of July and tell they have got to get this farm bill passed,
Woodall told Brownfield Ag News, after talking to Illinois Beef Association members
Tuesday. The consequences of the farm bill failure are real for cattlemen who
have been counting on help to recover from disasters that have occurred over the
past couple of years, said Woodall. We dont know where were going to be able to
get the program payments to provide some help to these producers who are
suffering through drought, said Woodall. And also, if we go forward with an
extension of the 2008 bill, that doesnt help either, because the extension does not
include disaster programs. Woodall spoke at the Illinois Beef Association Summer
Conference at Rend Lake, near Whittington, Illinois. AUDIO: Colin Woodall (4:20)
mp3 Copyright 2013 Brownfield, All rights Reserved. Written For: Brownfield

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POLITICSAG LOBBY LINK TURN EXT.

Agriculture groups support the repeal of the Cuban embargo
Schneider 10 (Howard Schneider, Washington Post Staff Writer, Congress
reviewing Cuban sanctions, may lift travel ban, Published: July 7, 2010,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/07/06/AR2010070605164.html)//mw
The bill is being pushed by business and agriculture groups that have long
argued that the Cold War-era sanctions against Cuba should be lifted, but
it is opposed by an influential anti-communist lobby, which is against Cuba's ruling
Castro family. But at a time when the Obama administration is fighting to boost U.S.
exports, supporters of the bill argue that they have their best chance yet to
reopen a country famous for its white sand and hand-rolled cigars, featured
in American pop culture from "I Love Lucy" to the "Godfather" films.
Agriculture lobbies have immense power in the Senate

Watzman 6-11 (Nancy Watzman Reporter for the Sunlight Foundation, Senators
who write farm bill fine print reap agribusiness campaign cash,
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/Senators_who_write_farm_bill_fine_print_
reap_agribusiness_campaign_cash.html#TvycbEqGx1JDXFrz.99)//mw
As senators cast their votes Monday on the 1,139-page, $955 billion farm bill,
the unseen backdrop was the more than $26 million in campaign cash that
agribusiness has pumped into their political campaigns. All but two
members of the current Senate have received money from these donors
who represent every possible agriculture concern, from sugar growers to
dairy farmers to chemical manufacturers and more. Its an axiom of agriculture
politics that agribusiness interests concentrate their generosity on members of key
committees who write and fund the farm bill. As the graphic below shows, the
current Senate is no exception. According to analysis of data downloaded from
Influence Explorer, 42 percent of this agribusiness campaign cash flows to 15
senators, 13 of whom sit on either the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition
and Forestry or the Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee, or both. The other two
have seats on the Senate Finance Committee, which writes tax law, as do several
other top recipients of agribusiness contributions. The top Senate
recipients of agribusiness campaign cash between 2008 and 2012 largely
hail from farm states, with senators from South Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan and
Kansas topping the list. These are states where crop insurance subsidies, price
supports, and commodity marketing programs make a big difference to
constituents' pocket books.

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POLITICSCoD/LENDERS LINK TURN
Commerce Dept. and lender will back the planshields Obama

Matias F. Travieso-Diaz 2009 J.D. Mr. Travieso-Diaz concentrates his legal
practice on administrative and judicial litigation and arbitration proceedings relating
to nuclear and fossil-fueled energy projects.
" LIFTING THE CUBAN EMBARGO: THE NEW LABORS OF HERCULES?" Association for
the Study of the Cuban Economy
http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume19/pdfs/traviesodiaz.pdf
Accessed 7/9/13
U.S. Department of Commerce. The Commerce Department plays an active
role in supporting development abroad through its numerous programs of
general trade promotion. Commerce is the hub of an interagency task
force, the Trade Promotion Coordinating Committee, which links most of the
federal governments export promotion programs.93 This task force has a hotline
for businesses needing trade information and counseling, and publishes a directory
of U.S. government resources for exporters. Another Commerce Department office,
the International Trade Administration, organizes trade missions to foreign countries
focusing on particular U.S. industry or service sectors, and missions to introduce
U.S. companies to foreign markets, and also arranges for U.S. participation in
foreign trade fairs and exhibitions. The Commerce Departments Foreign
Commercial Service has officers in overseas posts scouting commercial
opportunities for U.S. investors and traders. Export-Import Bank. The Export-Import
Bank of the United States is an independent federal agency that facilitates the
export financing of U.S. goods and services to creditworthy foreign buyers.94
Eximbanks Export Credit Insurance program protects U.S. exporters against buyer
default, thus allowing the exporter to offer more attractive credit terms. The
Eximbank Loan Program offers loan guarantees for U.S. exporters, direct
loans to foreign purchasers, and intermediary loans to lenders who then make loans
to foreign purchasers. The Working Capital Guarantee Program helps
potential exporters obtain critical pre-export financing from commercial
lenders, providing repayment protection for private sector loans to foreign
purchasers of U.S. goods. Eximbank provides special programs for small exporting
businesses, including enhanced protection for short-term sales.95 In summary, a
variety of government-sponsored investment and economic development
programs could be utilized to stimulate economic recovery and
development Cuba. Participation in these programs is currently foreclosed
by the embargo.

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POLITICSA2: CUBAN AMERICAN LOBBY

Even hard-line Cuban-Americans support engagement
JT//JEDI
Domestically, the traditional third rail of Cuban-America politics has also

just recently been de-energized. Historically the exile community has been a
bulwark against any Cuba policy that loosened universal values attainment.
However, a major poll of registered Cuban-American voters in 2008
reflected a reshuffling of priorities. The Florida International University poll
showed for that first time since polling began, the majority of respondents
favored normalization of diplomatic relations with the island.103 Even
many in the older and more hard-line generations have broken with first
wave conservatives.104 This shift of collective opinions points to a new
perspective that attainment of those values has to come from within the
country and the U.S.s role is best played through engagement with Cuba
in order to help the Cuban people create the conditions for democratic
change from within.105
Florida is not politically essential. Cuban American lobby is

retreating from GOP support
Support for the Republican Party also is falling. According to some exit polls
Barack Obama narrowly carried the Cuban American community in November, after
receiving little more than a third of the vote four years ago. He received 60
percent of the votes of Cuban Americans born in the U nited States.
Barack Obama increased his votes among Cuban Americans after
liberalizing contacts with the island. He also would have won the
presidency without Florida, demonstrating that the state may not be
essential politically.
The plan would get Florida on board

Moreover, migration from Cuba has picked up pace in recent years,

suggesting that the aging hardliners will continue to lose clout relative to
voting power. According to the Institute of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at
the University of Miami, over 131,000 Cubans have arrived and settled in South

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Florida since 2005. n17 In fact, a policy that eventually normalizes relations
with Cuba would probably carry votes in Florida, and the rest of the
south. n18 These domestic changes mean that the U.S. can more easily
reorient its Latin American policy to encourage constructive engagement
that inspires optimism and hope rather than fear and anger.

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No political fallout from Cuban American Lobby
Jos R. Crdenas, Nov. 13, 12, an associate with the consulting firm VisionAmericas, former
Acting Assistant Administrator for Latin America and the Caribbean and Senior Advisor at the
Organization of American States and as a senior professional staff member on the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, Cuba policy in a second Obama term, Foreign Policy,
http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/13/cuba_policy_in_a_second_obama_term, ACC. 6-12013, JT//JEDI
Critics of current U.S. policy towards Cuba have already begun speculating what
unilateral changes may be in store for that contentious relationship during President
Obama's second term. By winning the state of Florida -- home to the highest
concentration of Cuban exiles -- despite implementing some initiatives in his
first term that were opposed by Cuban Americans in Congress, President
Obama, in their view, can be aggressive in further liberalizing policy
without fear now of any political fallout (although widely reported exit polls
that suggested up to 48 percent of Cuban Americans voted for Obama have been
debunked by CapitolHillCubans.com).
The Cuban American lobby no longer has a dominant antiembargo influence

Geoff Thale, Nov. 9, 12, How will Cuban Americans impact Obama's Cuba policies in his second
term?, Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-AmericaMonitor/2012/1109/How-will-Cuban-Americans-impact-Obama-s-Cuba-policies-in-his-second-term, ACC.

6-1-2013, JT//JEDI
As Anya Landau French pointed out ... in The Havana Note, and Phil Peters in
the Cuban Triangle, Cuban Americans voted for Obama in record numbers.
Recent reports suggest that Obama secured 48 percent of the Cuban-American
vote, edged out only slightly by Romney. Obama, who liberalized people-to-people
travel, dropped the Bush administrations hostile rhetoric toward Cuba, and allowed
Cuban-American families to visit Cuba as much as they want and send as much
money to Cuba as they want, increased his percentage of the CubanAmerican vote by ten points. The size of the shift is especially significant:
Until this year, Bill Clintons 1996 campaign had held the position as most
successful Democratic campaign ever in garnering Cuban-American votes. On
Tuesday, Obama surpassed Clintons numbers.
Also, on Tuesday night, the hardline blocs historical dominance of CubanAmerican politics was finally broken: Rep. David Rivera was defeated by
moderate Cuban-American Joe Garcia. Rivera introduced several pieces of harsh
anti-Cuba legislation, including an amendment to turn back travel regulations to
the George W. Bush era. After a bizarre election scandal, in which Rivera allegedly
funneled thousands of dollars in cash to support a previously unknown primary
challenger, Garcia defeated Rivera by ten points.

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Cuban-American opposition to the plan is reversingelection

proves
JOEL BRINKLEY, 12/18/12, Cuba embargo isn't working but isn't going away, Politico, ACC. 61-2013,
http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/cuba-embargo-isnt-working-but-isnt-going-away-85281.html,
JT//JEDI
Americas embargo on Cuba began its 53rd year this fall, and its hard to
find anyone who thinks its working. Even Cuban-Americans who hate the
Castro brothers and fervently insist that the embargo remain in place
generally agree that it has accomplished little, if anything.
Still, said Jaime Suchlicki, a Cuban migr who is the director of the Cuba Transition
Project at the University of Miami, do you give away a policy that has been in place
for 50 years, whether you think its right or wrong, good or bad, effective or not
for nothing? Without a quid pro quo from Cuba? Suchlicki came to the United
States in the first wave of Cuban refugees in 1960 after the communist revolution.
His hardline views mirror those of many in his generation. And for decades, it
dominated the Cuba discussion in Florida, a state presidential candidates have long
believed they need to win to be elected.
But today the Cuban-American population is more diverse, as the U.S.
presidential election last month showed. Previously, Cuban-Americans
regularly voted in favor of Republicans, who are generally staunch
embargo supporters, by 4 to 1. This time, President Barack Obama won half
their vote.

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Changing demographics undermine the Cuban American
lobbys influence
Geoff Thale, Nov. 9, 12, How will Cuban Americans impact Obama's Cuba policies in his second
term?, Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-AmericaMonitor/2012/1109/How-will-Cuban-Americans-impact-Obama-s-Cuba-policies-in-his-second-term, ACC.

6-1-2013, JT//JEDI
In Floridas Cuban-American community, change is in the air. There have

been signs of this change for several years. As we have pointed out in the
past, recent polling shows shifting Cuban-American views on
US Cuba policy, especially among recent arrivals and young Cuban
Americans. Tuesday night, the changing opinions and changing demographics of
the Cuban-American community made themselves heard at the polls.
Advocates of change in US policy toward Cuba have long argued that the
community is shifting: Newer immigrants and younger Cuban-American
voters are less committed to continuing the US embargo of Cuba, and US
policy toward Cuba is less of a priority issue for them than it was for the
previous generation.
Cuban American community ill support the planno political

fallout
First, leadership changes in both countries allow each to signal a new way
forward without necessarily repudiating long-held positions. Both
governments have signaled a willingness to talk, which is already a step in
the right direction. Specifically, within the United States, demographic changes in
the Cuban-American community have led to attitudinal changes toward
U.S.-Cuban relations. Florida International University's yearly polls have
shown a trend whereby an increasing number of Cuban-Americans are
opposed to the current U.S. policy of economic and political isolation.
In 2008, those polls indicated that a majority of Cuban-Americans opposed
the restrictions on family travel and remittances. n15 These polls also
indicated that long-term demographic trends are breaking in the
Democrats' favor: the divide is now between older Cuban Americans who
still vote Republican, and the younger generation, increasingly more
numerous, who lean Democrat. Not only did President Obama outpace Senator
John Kerry's 2004 performance by ten points, but he won the twenty-nine or
younger Cuban-American vote with fifty-five percent. n16 This shift in
public opinion, combined with the fact that President Obama won Florida's
electoral votes during the 2008 election despite narrowly losing the Cuban vote,
gives the Administration a freer hand to construct a new policy with
relatively little political costs.

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Obama has plenty of political room to reform Cuba policy

Implementing these recommendations will not be easy, but they certainly are not as
insurmountable as some will claim. President Obama was the first Democrat to
win Florida's Hispanic vote, and nearly tied Senator John McCain in the
Cuban-dominated Miami-Dade County. n159 While in 2004 President Bush won
55% of the Hispanic vote, President Obama bettered that number by winning over
57%, compared to only 42% for Senator McCain. This emerging political climate
has given the President enough room to maneuver around those who hope
to continue the failures of the status quo.

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55% of Cuban Americans support ending the embargo. This
removes the political need to avoid engagement
*FIU = Florida International University

Additionally, Cuba has established warm relations with China. Domestic politics
have never been more favorable for a significant change to U nited States foreign
policy towards Cuba.
For the first time since FIU began polling the Cuban American community
in 1991, a majority of participants, 55 percent, favor ending the United States
embargo against Cuba. A majority of Cuban American voters also favor ending
current restrictions on travel and remittances to Cuba, with the strongest support
for changing current policy among those who emigrated after 1980 and from
younger age groups. Results showed that a strong majority of registered
Cuban American voters, as well as the larger community, support greater
engagement with Cuba, including direct talks between the United States and
Cuba on issues such as migration. When gauging the reaction of the community to
Ral Castros Presidency, 65 percent answered that they see the same possibility for
change under Ral Castro as under Fidel Castro. The poll results also show the
largest percentage of Cuban Americans voting for the Democratic Presidential
candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976, with 38 percent of the total community and
51 percent of Cuban Americans under age 45 voting for Barack Obama.289
The result of this December 2008 polling is to unlock the ball and chain of
Cuban-American resistance to easing of sanctions from the President as
well as some influential members of congress. They are now free to pursue
what they deem as the policy that is in the best national interest of the
United States, without the fear that their position could cost them re-election.
Cuban American lobby is changingyounger generation

supports reform
The embargo survives largely because of Floridas political importance.

Every presidential candidate wants to win the Sunshine States electoral votes, and
the Cuban American community is a significant voting bloc.
But the political environment is changing. A younger, more liberal
generation of Cuban Americans with no memory of life in Cuba is coming
to the fore. Said Wayne Smith, a diplomat who served in Havana: for the first
time in years, maybe there is some chance for a change in policy. And there are

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now many more new young Cuban Americans who support a more sensible
approach to Cuba.

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A2: XO
Only Congress can end the embargo. It requires repealing the
Torricelli & Helms-Burton Acts
JT//JEDI
Although the Obama administration took the largely symbolic step of extending
the embargo for another year under the Trading with the Enemy Act last year, the
President did relax some longstanding restrictions by taking action to make
it easier for Cuban-Americans to visit and send remittances to family
members in Cuba. The administration also recently hinted at plans to reduce travel
restrictions for academic, cultural, and religious groups later this year.12 While the
executive branch can continue to chip away at these longstanding
restrictions, the law requires that Congress will ultimately need to pass
legislation to repeal the embargo.
Under existing law, established by the Helms-Burton Act, the embargo cannot be
lifted until the Cuban people democratically elect a new government and the
transition government is in place. While President Obama could take an initial
step by refusing to issue the annual extension of Cubas national
emergency status under the Trading with the Enemy Act,13 lifting the
embargo will ultimately require that Congress pass and the President sign
into law legislation to repeal both the Torricelli Act and the Helms-Burton
Act. Passing HR 4645 would be a positive first step, but Congress will need to take
further action to see that the embargo is lifted in its entirety.
President alone cant lift the travel ban


Ironically, the piece of legislation that was designed to loosen the trade embargo
restricts the ability of the President to end the ban on travel by U.S. citizens to
Cuba. The 2000 law which exempts exports of agricultural and medical products
from U.S. sanctions includes a provision, which was championed by pro-embargo
members of Congress, which prohibits the executive branch from licensing
travel to, from, or within Cuba for tourist activities. As a result, the
President must work with Congress, which could either restore his
authority to resume travel or lift the ban outright . Legislators in the House
and Senate have introduced bills to restore travel to Cuba, including H.R. 874 and S.
428, the Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act.

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A2: TOURISM (UQ)

Tourism to Cuba is high now, even Americans
Ted Piccone, Jan 19, 12, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, Cuba is
Changing, Slowly but Surely, ACC. 6-16-2013,
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2012/01/19-cuba-piccone, KDF//JEDI
One area where Cuba seems to be moving in a positive direction is tourism. From
1990 to 2010, the estimated number of tourists has risen from 360,000 to
2.66 million. In addition, thanks to President Obamas decision to allow
Cuban-American families to visit the island and send remittances as much as
they want, Cubans have received over 400,000 visits and roughly $2 billion
from relatives in the United States. These are proving to be important sources of
currency and commerce that are helping families cope with reduced subsidies and
breathe life in the burgeoning private sector. A walk through crowded Old Havana,
where construction crews are busy restoring one of the Americas great colonial
treasures, offers compelling evidence that Cuba can be a strong magnet for
Europeans, Canadians, Chinese andsome dayhundreds of thousands of
American visitors. And Pope Benedicts visit in late March will shine an
international spotlight on a Cuba slowly opening its doors to the world, yes, but
more importantly, to an increasingly vocal and confident Catholic Church intent on
securing a more prominent and relevant place in Cuban society.

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A2: TOURISM (Environment)

Economic engagement with Cuba increases protection their
environment--sets a model for sustainable development in
other countries
Conell, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 9, (Christina,
The U.S. and Cuba: Destined to be Environmental Partners, June 12, Online:
http://www.coha.org/the-us-and-cuba-an-environmental-duo/ )
The 50-year-old U.S. embargo against the island has resoundingly failed to
achieve its purpose. Obamas modifications fall short of what it will take to
reestablish a constructive U.S.-Cuba relationship. Cubas tropical forests,
soils, and maritime areas have suffered degradation as a result of harmful
policies stemming from a Soviet-style economic system. Cubas economy
could be reinvigorated through expanded tourism, development initiatives
and an expansion of commodity exports, including sugarcane for ethanol. U.S.
policy toward Cuba should encourage environmental factors, thereby
strengthening U.S. credibility throughout the hemisphere.An environmental
partnership between the U.S. and Cuba is not only possible, but could result
in development models that could serve as an example for environmental
strategies throughout the Americas. The U.S. has the economic resources
necessary to aid Cuba in developing effective policy, while the island
provides the space where sustainable systems can be implemented
initially instead of being applied after the fact. Cubas extreme lack of
development provides an unspoiled arena for the execution of exemplary
sustainable environmental protection practices.
Cuba tourism already exploits the environment for tourism

Conell, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 9, (Christina,
The U.S. and Cuba: Destined to be Environmental Partners, June 12, Online:
http://www.coha.org/the-us-and-cuba-an-environmental-duo/ )
For Cubans and foreigners alike, the beaches of Cuba constitute the
principle tourist attraction in the country, but even these have not
escaped wasteful government exploitation. The famous beaches east of
Havana have been the victims of sand removal for use by the Cuban
government in the construction industry. In addition to coastal destruction, like
many of its Caribbean neighbors, Cuba faces deforestation, overcultivation of land and compaction of soils due to the use of heavy farm
machinery and strip mining. These practices have resulted in high salinity
in soils and heavy land erosion. Furthermore, poor water quality in
freshwater streams has affected the wildlife habitat, which is in turn
influenced by runoff from agricultural practices, erosion due to
deforestation, and sedimentation of freshwater streams. Cuba must act in a
responsible manner to stop environmental degradation and preserve its tourist
industry as an early step to salvage its inert economy. The environmental
degradation that began during the colonial era has transcended time as a result of

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Castros political and economic paradigm. Only in the last 40 years, with the
development of the Commission for the Protection of the Environment and the
Conservation of Natural Resources (COMARNA), has Cuba begun to address growing
environmental concerns. COMARNA consolidated all of the agencies with
environmental responsibilities, as a step towards giving them the power
to influence all environmental issues. Although COMARNA was all-inclusive, it
lacked independent authority, so its activities achieved few tangible
results. The sad fact was that the centralized agency only succeeded in
aiding the state in squandering resources.

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A2: SEX TOURISM (link turns)

Plan solves the internal link to sex tourism
Robert Cribb, et al, March 17, 13, Jennifer Quinn and Julian Sher, and Juan O. Tamayo,
How
Cuba became the newest hotbed for tourists craving sex with minors, Miami Herald, ACC. 5-26-2013,
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/03/16/v-fullstory/3289971/how-cuba-became-the-newesthotbed.html, JT//JEDI
Exploitation thrives were poverty exists, and in that respect Cuba is no

different than other destinations for sex tourists.
Ivan Garcia, 43, a dissident Havana journalist who has written several articles on
prostitution, said the underage prostitutes are typically poor, hopeless and
desperate. For these people, future is a bad word, he said.
Today, prostitution may well be the most profitable job in an island where
the average monthly salary officially stands at less than $20 and a bottle
of cooking oil costs $3.
The Cuban Embargo props up high rates of sex tourism in Cuba

NYT 4
(New York Times News Service). December 27, 2004. Sex tourism thriving in Cuba.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2004/12/27/2003216969/2 Accessed
7/6/13 //SH
A decades-old US embargo on selling Cuba many medical supplies has

crimped the country's ability to provide drugs to patients, but the
government has replicated some advanced retroviral medicines used to
fight AIDS, providing them at no cost. This, too, has slowed the epidemic. UN
officials who track AIDS say Cuba has done a better job than most countries at
corralling the disease. "Certainly there has been an increase in AIDS, but it is not
big, not like you see in the Dominican Republic, or Haiti, or in Puerto Rico," said
Paloma Cuchi, who oversees the UN AIDS program in Latin America. "They have a
very good medical infrastructure, and people have access to care and prevention."
The low levels of the virus in Cuba and the inexpensive price of sex
compared with other places have made the island a destination for male
tourists seeking women.

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A2: SEX TOURISM (high now)

Sex tourism in Cuba is high nowalso proves alternate causes
Plasencia 09
Arianne Plasencia, J.D., Georgetown Univ. Law Center, 9, SEX TOURISM IN MODERN CUBA:
AN OUTGROWTH OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY'S FOCUS ON FREE-MARKET CAPITALISM, The
Georgetown Journal of Gender and the Law, 10 Geo. J. Gender & L. 999, //SH
Cuba's increasing reliance on foreign tourism and the economic strife that resulted
after the fall of the Soviet Union provided the optimal conditions for a resurgence in
prostitution in the 1990s. However, the prostitution of this era was unlike that of
pre-Revolutionary Cuba, where both wealthy Cuban citizens and foreign tourists
utilized the services of prostitutes. Instead, prostitution in modern Cuba has
taken the form of sex tourism. Sex tourism--travel to a country to engage
in sexual activity for hire with its native population--has been an
outgrowth of Cuba's increasing reliance on the tourism industry, and the
free-market system that accompanies it, to sustain its economy. In order to
compete in the globalized capitalist world, Cuba has taken a free market approach
to foreign trade and investment. At the same time, it has insisted upon a socialist
stance domestically. The resultant conflict between these two systems has found
expression in the increase in prostitution in Cuba in the last two decades.

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A2: SEX TOURISM (general)

Cuban laws are super tough on child sexual exploitation
Robert Cribb, et al, March 17, 13, Jennifer Quinn and Julian Sher, and Juan O. Tamayo,
How
Cuba became the newest hotbed for tourists craving sex with minors, Miami Herald, ACC. 5-26-2013,
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/03/16/v-fullstory/3289971/how-cuba-became-the-newesthotbed.html, JT//JEDI
Cuban laws are tough on those convicted of sexually exploiting girls or

boys 14 and younger if the government chooses to prosecute. They can get
up to 30 years in prison and even death by firing squad if there are
aggravating factors such as the use of violence or drugs.
Three Italian men were sentenced to up to 25 years in prison for murder and
corruption of minors after the 2010 death of a 12-year-old girl during a sex party in
eastern Bayamo. Court records indicate that the girl was asthmatic and died
accidentally.
A 2003 report on Cuban sex tourism by the global monitoring group End Child
Prostitution and Trafficking noted that one Canadian had been sentenced to 11
years for sexually abusing a 13-year-old girl, and another was sentenced to 25 years
for abusing a 15-year-old.
Sources agree that Cuban authorities are very severe in cases of solicitation
or having sex with children under the age of 14, noted the U.S. diplomatic
cable in 2009, made public by the Wikileaks web site. It added that Cuba
cooperates with Interpol to keep known pedophiles out of the island.
The police and other officials appear to treat sex crimes, particularly
those against children, seriously and professionally, noted the RCMP
report from 2011, obtained by The Toronto Star.
The Cuban government has laws in place to prevent sex

tourism.
Plasencia 09
Arianne Plasencia, J.D., Georgetown Univ. Law Center, 9, SEX TOURISM IN MODERN CUBA:
AN OUTGROWTH OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY'S FOCUS ON FREE-MARKET CAPITALISM, The
Georgetown Journal of Gender and the Law, 10 Geo. J. Gender & L. 999, //SH
The Cuban government attempted to crack down on prostitution and

sex work by increasing enforcement and studying the problem. In 1996, the
Central Committee of the Communist Party released a study on tourism that
criticized the resultant prostitution and dual economy. n98 As a result of this study,
the government increased police efforts to curb prostitution in the
late 1990s. n99 A law was also instituted preventing Cubans from
entering tourist hotels without official permission. n100 Although there
is no law officially making prostitution illegal in Cuba, women who engage in
prostitution and sex work, or who are perceived to be doing so, may be
arrested under other Cuban laws. The law prohibiting anti-social behavior
often is used against jineteras. n101 In addition, if a woman is suspected of

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prostitution, but there is no hard evidence against her, she may be arrested for
loitering around tourist hangouts. n102

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A2: SEX TOURISM/HUMAN TRAFFICKING

(patriarchy)
Patriarchy is not the root cause saying so is reductionist and
bad for debate.
Crenshaw 2[CarrieCrenshawPhD,FormerPresidentofCEDA,PerspectivesInControversy:SelectedArticlesfromContemporary
ArgumentationandDebate2002p.119126]
Feminism isnotdead.Itis alive and well in intercollegiate debate. Increasingly,

students rely on feminist authors to inform their analysis of resolutions .WhileI
applaudtheseinitialeffortstoexplorefeministthoughtI
, am concerned that such arguments only exemplify
the general absence of sound causal reasoning in debate rounds. Poor
causal reasoning results from a debate practice that privileges empirical
proof over rhetorical proof,fostering ignorance of the subject matter being
debated. To illustrate my point, I claim that debate arguments about feminists suffer from a reductionism that tends to marginalize the voices of
significant feminist authors. David Zarefsky made a persuasive case for the value of causal reasoning in intercollegiate debate as far back as 1979. He
argued that causal arguments are desirable for four reasons. First, causal analysis increases the control of the arguer over events by promoting
understanding of them. Second, the use of causal reasoning increases rigor of analysis and fairness in the decision-making process. Third, causal
arguments promote understanding of the philosophical paradox that presumably good people tolerate the existence of evil. Finally, causal reasoning
supplies good reasons for commitments to policy choices or to systems of belief which transcend whim, caprice, or the non-reflexive claims of
immediacy (117-9). Rhetorical proof plays an important role in the analysis of causal relationships. This is true despite the common assumption that the
identification of cause and effect relies solely upon empirical investigation. For Zarefsky, there are three types of causal reasoning. The first type of causal
reasoning describes the application of a covering law to account for physical or material conditions that cause a resulting event This type of causal
reasoning requires empirical proof prominent in scientific investigation. A second type of causal reasoning requires the assignment of responsibility.
Responsible human beings as agents cause certain events to happen; that is, causation resides in human beings (107-08). A third type of causal claim
explains the existence of a causal relationship. It functions to provide reasons to justify a belief that a causal connection exists (108). The second and
third types of causal arguments rely on rhetorical proof, the provision of good reasons to substantiate arguments about human responsibility or
explanations for the existence of a causal relationship (108). I contend that the practice of intercollegiate debate privileges the first type of causal
analysis. It reduces questions of human motivation and explanation to a level of empiricism appropriate only for causal questions concerning physical or
material conditions. Arguments about feminism clearly illustrate this phenomenon. Substantive debates about feminism usually take one of two forms.
First, on the affirmative, debaters argue that some aspect of the resolutionisamanifestationofpatriarchy.Forexample,giventhespring1992resolution,[rjesolved:That
advertisingdegradesthequalityoflife,"manyaffirmativesarguedthattheportrayalofwomenasbeautifulobjectsformen'sconsumptionisamanifestation of patriarchy that results
in tangible harms to women such as rising rates of eating disorders. The fall 1992 topic, "(resolved: That the welfare system exacerbates the problems of
the urban poor in the United States," also had its share of patriarchy cases. Affirmatives typically argued that women's dependence upon a patriarchal
welfare system results in increasing rates of women's poverty. In addition to these concrete harms to individual women, most affirmatives on both topics,
desiring "big impacts," argued that the effects of patriarchy include nightmarish totalitarianism and/or nuclear annihilation. On the negative, many
debaters countered with arguments that the some aspect of the resolution in some way sustains or energizes the feminist movement in resistance to
patriarchal harms. For example, some negatives argued that sexist advertising provides an impetus for the reinvigoration of the feminist movement and/or
feminist consciousness, ultimately solving the threat of patriarchal nuclear annihilation. likewise, debaters negating the welfare topic argued that the state
of the welfare system is the key issue around which the feminist movement is mobilizing or that the consequence of the welfare system - breakup of the
patriarchal nuclear family -undermines patriarchy as a whole. Such arguments seem to have two assumptions in common. First, there is a single feminism.
As a result,feministsaretransformedintofeminism.Debatersspeakoffeminismasasingle,monolithic,theoreticalandpragmaticentityandfeministsaswomenwithidenticalmotivations,
methods,andgoals.Second,
these arguments assume that patriarchy is the single or root
cause of all forms of oppression. Patriarchy not only is responsible for

sexism and the consequent oppression of women, it also is the cause of
totalitarianism, environmental degradation, nuclear war, racism, and
capitalist exploitation. These reductionist arguments reflect an
unwillingness to debate about the complexities of human motivation and
explanation . They betray a reliance upon a framework of proof that can
explain only material conditions and physical realities through empirical
quantification.Thetransformationoffeminists'Mofeminismandthe identification of patriarchy as the
sole cause of all oppression is related in part to the current formof
intercollegiate debate practice.By"form,"IrefertoKennethBurke'snotionofform,definedasthe"creationofappetiteinthemindofthe
auditor,andtheadequatesatisfyingofthatappetite"(CounterStatement31).Thoughtheframeworkforthisunderstandingofformisfoundinliteraryandartisticcriticism,itisappropriatein
thiscontext;asBurkenotes,literaturecanbe"equipmentforliving"(Biilosophy293).Healsosuggeststhatform"isanarousingandfulfillmentofdesires.Aworkhasforminsofarasonepart
ofitleadsareadertoanticipateanotherpart,tobegratifiedbythesequence"(CounterStatement124).Burkeobservesthatthereareseveralaspectstotheconceptofform.Oneoftheseaspects,
conventionalform,involvestosomedegreetheappealofformasform.Progressive,repetitive,andminorforms,maybeeffectiveeventhoughthereaderhasnoawarenessoftheirformality.But
whenaformappealsasform,wedesignateitasconventionalform.Anyformcanbecomeconventional,andbesoughtforitselfwhetheritbeascomplexastheGreektragedyorascompactas
thesonnet(CounterStatement126).Theseconceptshelptoexplaindebaters'continuingreluctancetoemployrhetoricalproofinargumentsaboutcausality.Debaterspracticetheconventionof
poorcausalreasoningasaresultofjudges'unexaminedrelianceuponconventionalform.Conventionisthepracticeofarguingsinglecauselinkstomonolithicimpactsthatarisesoutofcustom
orusage.Conventionalformistheexpectationofjudgesthatanargumentwilltakethisform.Common practice or convention dictates that a case or disadvantage with

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nefarious impacts causally related to a single link will "outweigh" opposing claims in the mind of the judge.Inthissense,debateargumentsthemselvesare
conventional.Debaterspracticetheconventionofestablishingsinglecauserelationshipstolargemonolithicimpactsinordertoconformtoaudienceexpectation.Debaterspracticepoorcausal
The convention of arguing single-cause links leads

the judge to anticipate the certainty of the impact and to be gratified by
the sequence.Isuspectthatthesequenceisgratifyingforjudgesbecauseitrelievesusfromtheresponsibilityanddifficultiesofevaluatingrhetoricalproofs.Wearecaught
reasoningbecausetheyarerewardedforitbyjudges.
betweenourresponsibilitytoevaluaterhetoricalproofsandourreluctancetosuccumbtocompleterelativismandsubjectivity.Totakeresponsibilityforevaluatingrhetoricalproofistoadmit
thatnoteveryquestionhasanempiricalanswer.However,whenweabandonourresponsibilitytorhetoricalproofs,wesacrificeourstudents'understandingofcausalreasoning.Thesacrificehas
when feminism is defined as a single

entity,notasapluralizedmovementortheorythat
,
single entity results in the identification of
patriarchy as the sole cause of oppression. The result is ignorance of the
subject positionoftheparticularfeministauthor,forhighlightinghisorhersubjectpositionmightdrawattentiontotheincompletenessofthecausalrelationship
consequencesforourstudents'knowledgeofthesubjectmattertheyaredebating.Forexample,
betweenlinkandimpactConsequently,debatersdonotchallengethebasicassumptionsofsuchargumentationandignoranceoffeministsisperpetuated.Feministsarenotfeminism.Thetopics
offeministinquiryaremanyandvaried,asarethephilosophicalapproachestothestudyofthesetopics.Differentauthorshaveattemptedcategorizationofvariousfeministsindistinctiveways.
Forexample,AlisonJaggararguesthatfeministscanbedividedintofourcategories:liberalfeminism,marxistfeminism,radicalfeminism,andsocialistfeminism.
CONTINUES...

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A2: SEX TOURISM/HUMAN TRAFFICKING

(patriarchy)
Whileeachofthesefeministsmayshareacommoncommitmenttotheimprovementofwomen'ssituations,theydifferfromeachotherinveryimportantwaysandreflectdivergentphilosophical
assumptionsthatmakethemeachunique.LindaAlcoffpresentsanentirelydifferentcategorizationoffeministtheorybasedupondistinctunderstandingsoftheconcept"woman,"including
culturalfeminismandpoststructuralfeminism.KarenOffenutilizesacomparativehistoricalapproachtoexaminetwodistinctmodesofhistoricalargumentationordiscoursethathavebeen
usedbywomenandtheirmalealliesonbehalfofwomen'semancipationfrommalecontrolinWesternsocieties.Theseincluderelationalfeminismandindividualistfeminism.ElaineMarksand
IsabelledeCourtivrondescribeawholecategoryofFrenchfeministsthatcontainmanydistinctversionsofthefeministprojectbyFrenchauthors.Womenofcolorandthirdworldfeminists
havearguedthateventhesebroadcategorizationsofthevariousfeminismhaveneglectedthecontributionsofnonwhite,nonWesternfeminists(see,forexample,hooks;Hull;Josephand
Lewis;Lorde;Moraga;Omolade;andSmith).Inthisliterature,theverydefinitionoffeminismiscontested.Somefeministsarguethat"allfeministsareunitedbyacommitmenttoimprovingthe
situationofwomen"(JaggarandRothenbergxii),whileothershaveresistedthenotionofasingledefinitionoffeminism,bellhooksobserves,"acentralproblemwithinfeministdiscoursehas
beenourinabilitytoeitherarriveataconsensusofopinionaboutwhatfeminismis(oracceptdefinitions)thatcouldserveaspointsofunification"(FeministTheory17).Thecontroversyover
theverydefinitionoffeminismhaspoliticalimplications.Thepowertodefineisthepowerbothtoincludeandexcludepeopleandideasinandfromthatfeminism.Asaresult,[bjourgeoiswhite
womeninterestedinwomen'srightsissueshavebeensatisfiedwithsimpledefinitionsforobviousreasons.Rhetoricallyplacingthemselvesinthesamesocialcategoryasoppressedwomen,they
werenotanxioustocallattentiontoraceandclassprivilege(hooks.FeministWieory18).Debateargumentsthatassumeasingularconceptionoffeminismincludeandempowerthevoicesof
This position becomes

clearer when we examine the second assumption of arguments about
feminism in intercollegiate debate - patriarchy is the sole cause of
oppression. Important feminist thought has resisted this assumption for
good reason. Designating patriarchy as the sole cause of oppression
allows the subjugation of resistance to other forms of oppression like
racism and classism to the struggle against sexism.Suchsubjugationhastheeffectofdenigratingthelegitimacy
ofresistancetoracismandclassismasstrugglesofequalimportance."WithinfeministmovementintheWest this
,
led to the assumption that
resisting patriarchal domination is a more legitimate feminist action than
resisting racism and other forms of domination"(hooks.TalkingBack19). The relegation
of struggles against racism and class exploitation to offspring status is not
the only implication of the "sole cause" argumentInaddition,identifying
patriarchy as the single source of oppression obscures women's
perpetration of other forms of subjugation and domination ,bellhooksarguesthatweshouldnot
raceandclassprivilegedwomenwhileexcludingandsilencingthevoicesoffeministsmarginalizedbyraceandclassstatus.
obscuretherealitythatwomencananddoparticipateinpoliticsofdomination,asperpetratorsaswellasvictimsthatwedominate,thatwearedominated.Iffocusonpatriarchaldomination
masksthisrealityorbecomesthemeansbywhichwomendeflectattentionfromtherealconditionsandcircumstancesofourlives,thenwomencooperateinsuppressingandpromotingfalse
consciousness,inhibitingourcapacitytoassumeresponsibilityfortransformingourselvesandsociety(hooks.TalkingBack20).Characterizingpatriarchyasthesolecauseofoppressionallows
Current
.
debate practice promotes ignorance of these issues because debaters
appeal to conventional form, the expectation of judges that they will
isolate a single link to a large impact Feminists become feminism and
patriarchy becomes the sole cause of all evil. Poor causal arguments
arouse and fulfill the expectation of judges by allowing us to surrender our
responsibility to evaluate rhetorical proof for complex causal
relationships.
mainstreamfeministstoabdicateresponsibilityfortheexerciseofclassandraceprivilege.Itcaststhestruggleagainstclassexploitationandracismassecondaryconcerns

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A2: HUMAN TRAFFICKING (link turns)

Lifting the Embargo solves for trafficking by creating the
conditions need to discuss it.
RussiaToday 12
(Russia Today News service). November 14, 2012. Condemnedagain: 'Genocidal' US

embargo on Cuba slammed by UN for 21st year. http://rt.com/news/cuba-embargo-un-vote635/ Accessed 7/9/13 //SH
The UN has urged the US to lift the 52-year trade embargo with Cuba in an almostunanimous vote. Cuba likened the blockade to genocide and said it was
disappointed that Obama had not taken measures to lift the disputed embargo. Of
the 193 members of the UN assembly, 188 voted to abolish what is widely
perceived as an illegal blockade. The only two nations that got behind the US were
Israel and the Pacific nation of Palau, while two countries abstained from the vote.
This is the 21st year running that the UN has decried the American economic
sanctions against the island nation. Cubas Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez
addressed the assembly, voicing Cuban disappointment that despite Obamas
pledge to open a new chapter in Cuban-American relations on assuming
office four years ago, no steps had been taken the lift the crippling
embargo. "The reality is that the last four years have been characterized by the
persistent tightening of the embargo," he said. The Cuban government has
calculated that since the blockade was enforced in 1960 the total financial damage
to Cubas economy is around US$3 trillion. Rodriguez qualified the maintenance
of the embargo as tantamount to genocide and a massive, flagrant and
systematic violation of the human rights of the people of Cuba. He criticized
America for what he called a costly double standard for wasting hundreds of
millions of dollars from the taxes that are paid by US citizens in the useless and
illegal subversion against Cuba. US president Barack Obama has taken measures
to facilitate US travel to the island nation, but has thus far refrained from taking any
further steps to lift the embargo. The US justifies its stance by saying it is waiting for
signs of changes in Cubas political regime and improvements in the island states
human rights record. The embargo was originally introduced with a view to
crippling Cubas communist regime, which took power in the country following the
1959 revolution headed by Fidel Castro. A loyal friend? In fact, US envoy at the
UN assembly, Ronald D. Godard argued the embargo is one of the tools in our
overall efforts to encourage respect for the human rights and basic freedoms to
which the United Nations itself is committed. Cubas resolution seeks to identify
an external scapegoat for the islands economic problems when they are principally
caused by the economic policies that Cuban government has pursued for the past
half century, Godard said. He stressed that the US was a loyal friend to Cuba
and it is working to empower Cubans who wish to determine their own future.
Citing the case of Alan Gross, a US citizen who was arrested in Cuba and currently
serving a 15-year sentence for setting up internet networks on the island, Godard
said his imprisonment had halted diplomatic proceedings with Cuba. Minister
Rodriguezs speech was greeted by thunderous applause, while Godards was met

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with comparative silence at the assembly vote. Cuba has offered to work in
tandem with the US in areas such as the fight against drug trafficking,
terrorism and human trafficking. However, Washington has affirmed that
its policy towards Cuba will remain intact for the time being .
The US has to engage Cuba in order to solve human trafficking

and the like.
CFM 09
(Committee on Foreign Relations 111th Congress, Staff Trip Report to the Committee on
Foreign Relations United States Senate). February 23, 2009. CHANGING CUBA POLICYIN
THE
UNITED STATES NATIONAL INTEREST. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CPRT111SPRT47260/pdf/CPRT-111SPRT47260.pdf Accessed 7/9/13 //SH
The Executive Branch could choose to engage Cuba in bilateral talks in a

range of areas or negotiate new bilateral agreements with Cuba. In 2002,
Cuba proposed the negotiation of bilateral agreements on drug interdiction,
terrorism, and migration issues. In the context of Fidel Castros departure from
political power in 2006, some observers called for a policy of engagement
with Cuba in these areas as well as on efforts to combat human
trafficking and environmental cooperation.

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A2: HUMAN TRAFFICKING (alt. causality)

There are countless alternate causes to human trafficking.
Caritas 13
(Charity Organization). April 11, 2013. Root Causes of Human Trafficking.
http://www.caritas.org/activities/women_migration/caritas_migration_trafficking_and
_women.html?cnt=431 Accessed 7/9/13 //SH
Trafficking is a many sided problem. Here is a round up of the causes
Countries or regions of origin: Abject poverty, especially among women A lack of
political, social and economical stability A lack of reasonable and realistic
prospects Situations of armed conflict and oppression
Domestic violence and disintegration of the family structure
Gender discrimination
Lack of access to education and information The HIV-AIDS reality. Countries or
regions of destination: The expense of social charges that employers need to pay
for the social protection of regularly employed workers Increasing demand for
cheap and exploitable labourers in the construction, agricultural and industrial
sectors Increasing demand for cheap and exploitable domestic labourers A rise in
the demand for sex workers in a highly lucrative and globalising sex industry
Universal factors: Ever more limits and obstacles to legal migration channels
to countries with stronger economies and/or regions with better prospects A lack of
public awareness of the dangers of trafficking The high profit potential for
those engaged in the criminal activity The sophisticated organisation,
resources and networking capacity of criminal networks A lack of effective
anti-trafficking legislation, and if such legislation exists, a lack of effective
enforcement Global economic policies that foster exclusion of marginalised
people Disintegration of social protection networks Widespread
corruption in countries of origin, of transit and of destination among the
persons capable or responsible to combat trafficking
There are more factors contributing to trafficking than the aff

solves for.
OSCE 05
(Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe). July 7, 2005. Addressing the Root
Causes. http://www.unodc.org/documents/human-trafficking/Toolkit-files/08-58296_tool_92.pdf Accessed 7/9/13 //SH
Some of the common factors are local conditions that make populations want to
migrate in search of better conditions: poverty, oppression, lack of human
rights, lack of social or economic opportunity, dangers from conflict or
instability and similar conditions. Political instability, militarism, civil
unrest, internal armed conflict and natural disasters may result in an
increase in trafficking. The destabilization and displacement of populations
increase their vulnerability to exploitation and abuse through trafficking and forced
labour. War and civil strife may lead to massive displacements of populations,
leaving orphans and street children extremely vulnerable to trafficking.

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A2: QPQ CP (fails)

Cuba will say no to engagement conditions
Anya Landau French 9, Director for the U.S.-Cuba Policy Initiative at the New America
Foundation Options for Engagement A Resource Guide for Reforming U.S. Policy toward Cuba, April,
accessed 6-25-2013, http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/
resources/documents/Cuba/USPolicy/options-for-engagement.pdf, JT//JEDI
Whichever options the President and the Congress may choose to exercise,
suggested herein or elsewhere, each should avoid embracing a conditionbased policy on Cuba. The government of Cuba has indicated that it is not
moved by U.S. offers in exchange for internal political changes. U.S.
efforts are likely to see greater success if they center on protecting and advancing
American security and economic interests, nurturing a constructive bilateral
dialogue on difficult issues, and broadly contributing to greater economic and
political openness and opportunity on the island.
QPQ approach to Cuba is a proven failure

William Ratliff, 13, Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and a member
of the Board of Advisors of the Institutes Center on Global Prosperity & a Research
Fellow and Curator of the Americas Collection at the Hoover Institution, February 1,
2013, Cubas Tortured Transition,
JT//JEDI
Many significant changes can be made now without the support of Congress, though
since 1996 the latters backing has been necessary to fully lift the embargo.
Immediate reforms should include: securing the release of Alan Gross, the American
contractor arrested in 2009 for doing his proactive U.S. government-funded job;
ending provocative proactive programs; allowing more visits to Cuba by all
Americans, not just largely Cuban-Americans; expanding trade beyond the foods
and medicines now allowed; bringing our Cuba immigration policy into line with our
policies toward immigrants from other countries; increasing discussions with Cubas
political and military leaders on affairs of mutual interest; and looking objectively
at the reforms under way today and deciding how Washington can promote
change while defusing rather than stoking domestic conflict and tensions.
Whatever else we do, we must jettison our quid pro quo approach that
holds essential U.S. policy changes hostage to repeated vetoes by both
Cuban-Americans in the States and Castroites in Havana.

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A2: QPQ CP (democracy)

Using democracy as a precondition to economic engagement
prevents better relations. Diplomacy through economic
engagement alone solves better
JT//JEDI
Another important pitfall is to exploit democracy as a precondition for
diplomacy and economic engagement in Cuba. If democracy is virtuous, then
why must we exploit it? It casts a negative shadow on a positive change in
government. There is a common perception that U.S. policy with regards to security
and stability can only exist under the precondition of a Democratic Cuba. It has
prevented any real progress in U.S. Cuba relations because of well
placed fears that we mean to subvert the Cuban government. A popular
Cuban American lobby group, The Cuban American National Foundation summarizes
traditional U.S. beliefs towards Cuba. They suggest, U.S. Cuba policy should focus
on (1) advancing U.S. interests and security in the region and (2) empowering
Cuban people in their quest for democracy and prosperitythat these are
intertwined and one cannot be individually accomplished without the other.
To separate security and stability from democratic pursuits in Cuba could
benefit both causes. Focusing on better diplomatic relations could further
democracy as a byproduct of increased exposure to open markets,
businesses and globalization. China is a good example. The U.S. has diffused
tensions with China by exposing them to open markets. Although they continue to
embrace communism, their version of communism has been somewhat diluted as
they modified their business practices, trade and other aspects to compete in the
global marketplace. If you take into account that Cubas Growth National Product
(GDP) decreased by 4% since 2006 while their debt grew by 16% to almost $20B in
2008, Cuba certainly has incentive to do the same.29 By imposing democracy
we jeopardize diplomatic avenues to our principal security and stability
pursuits. To assuage the Cuban America position on this issue may be simpler
today than 10 years ago. Todays younger Cuban-American generation is more
amenable to closer relations with Cuba. The anger carried by their immigrant
forefathers after 50 years may be passing and perhaps the time is right to
leverage this new Cuban American generation to open dialogue with Cuba
without the democratic preconditions tied to negotiations.
Maintaining sanctions wont improve human rights or

democracy, but will continue to hurt both nations economies

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3.1: The American embargo is not sufficient to democratize Cuba and

improve human rights. Without the help and support of multilateral
institutions, economic sanctions on Cuba have been ineffective. As other
states trade and interact freely with Cuba, the lack of partnership with
America is only a minor hindrance to Cubas economy. Moreover, the
sanctions are detrimental to the United States economy, as Cuba could
potentially be a geostrategic economic partner. More importantly, since
economic sanctions are not directly related to the goal of improved human rights,
the effect of these sanctions is also unrelated; continued economic sanctions
against Cuba create no incentive for the Cuban government to promote
better human rights, especially when the sanctions do not have international
support. Empirically, it is clear that since its inception, the policy has not succeeded
in promoting democratization or improving human rights. Something more must be
done in order to improve the situation.

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A2: QPQ CP (democracy)

Cuba will say no to democratic reform conditionsThe plan
alone solves
JT//JEDI
Experts argue over whos started the dispute between nations: was it the Cuban Agrarian Reform Act in 1959 that nationalized
agrarian land in Cuba to include U.S. owned lands? Could it have been Cubas decision to resume trade with the Soviet Union that
led to a U.S. imposed embargo on Cuba in 1960? Perhaps the bigger issue was how diplomatic, economic and military efforts by
both countries continued to aggravate already strained relations.16 In 1961, Cuban exiles supported by the Central Intelligence
Agency failed to topple the Castro government. The Bay of Pigs fiasco sent Cuba a clear signal that the U.S. was not interested in
negotiation. Castro answered immediately by allowing Soviets to position nuclear missiles in Cuba, threatening U.S. vital security
and leading to the Cuban Missile Crises. These intentions have survived to the present undermining any attempt to pursue common
The underlying fear that U.S. remains committed to

toppling the Cuban government constitutes the first diplomatic pitfall in
U.S. Cuban relations. For this very reason, democratic reform will not
succeed as a diplomatic bargaining tool with Cuba. Suspicions run deep
among Cuban leaders and any inferences to government reform, albeit
noble, will impede meaningful relations. Human rights advocacy, free
trade and limited business opportunities in Cuba may be more plausible
and could eventually encourage the long-term changes U.S. wants in
Cuba.
interest and reduce tensions.
Economic engagement solves better than democratic

preconditions
JT//JEDI
Weve established that coercive means have failed to achieve democracy and
economic stability in Cuba. Im suggesting there is another mutually beneficial
alternative. Using China as an example, their exposure and need to compete in free
global markets broadened their horizons and shifted their hard line communist
approach to international diplomacy. This was a feat that coercive diplomacy has
not accomplished in Cuba. Yet we still have civil disagreements with China on
human rights issues, Taiwans right to independence and other contentious issues
without resorting to coercive measures. Why should Cuba receive different
treatment? The confusion lies with our tendency to impose democracy as a
precondition for diplomatic relations. How can Cuba subscribe to small business
practices, a free economy building block, if business opportunities are not available?
Diplomatic engagement and economic encouragement has a better
chance. Cubas economic condition incentivizes their willingness to begin
diplomatic negotiations. The U.S. should begin by focusing efforts to

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establish diplomatic relations through incentives rather than coercion. We

must also set the democratic precondition aside to pursue when the
relationship matures and trust is reestablished. Exposing them to new
opportunities will eventually, through their own discovery and U.S.
shepherding, lead them to a more representative government.

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A2: QPQ CP (war turn)

QPQ is the status quoMakes military conflict with Cuba
inevitable
3.3: The current policy may drag the United States into a military conflict with
Cuba. Military conflict may be inevitable in the future if the embargos
explicit goal creating an insurrection in Cuba to overthrow the
government is achieved, and the United States may not be ready to step
in. As Ratliff and Fontaine detail, Americans are not prepared to commit the
military resources [] (Fontaine 57), especially after unpopular wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan. Much like Americas current situation with isolated rogue states
such as Iran and North Korea, Cubas isolation may also lead to war for other
reasons, like the American occupation of Guantanamo Bay. These
consequences are inherently counterproductive for the democratization of
Cuba and the improvement of human rights.
WAR IMPACT

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A2: QPQ CP (human rights)

Repealing the embargo conforms to U.S. precedent on human
rights
Whats worse, U.S. sanctions encourage Cuba to collaborate with regional

players that are less friendly to American interests. For instance, in 2011, the
country inked a deal with Venezuela for the construction of an underwater
communications link, circumventing its need to connect with US-owned networks
close to its shores.
Repealing the embargo would fit into an American precedent of lifting
trade and travel restrictions to countries who demonstrate progress
towards democratic ideals. Romania, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary were
all offered normal trade relations in the 1970s after preliminary reforms even
though they were still in clear violation of several US resolutions
condemning their human rights practices. China, a communist country and
perennial human rights abuser, is the U.S.s second largest trading partner,
and in November, trade restrictions against Myanmar were lessened
notwithstanding a fifty year history of genocide and human trafficking propagated
by its military government.
The embargo is a failure. Human rights conditioning is an

irrational policy
Tampa Bay Times (editorial), Feb. 21, 12, U.S. embargo on Cuba: a halfcentury of failure, ACC. 6-13-2013, http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/editorials/usembargo-on-cuba-a-half-century-of-failure/1216424, JT//JEDI
The absurdity of the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba was evident from
the moment of its inception 50 years ago this month, when President John F.
Kennedy ordered press secretary Pierre Salinger to buy 1,200 H. Upmann Cuban
cigars before signing the order. The embargo failed in its primary objective to
remove the Castro brothers from power and has imposed undue hardship on the
country's 11 million citizens. It is an anachronism embraced only by hardliners from a bygone era. The Cuban trade embargo was born less as a sober-minded foreign policy initiative
than in a fit of presidential pique. Kennedy, trying to rebound from the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, sought to re-establish
his Cold Warrior anticommunist bona fides by sealing off Cuba from American investment, tourism and trade. In theory, the embargo
was supposed to fuel a popular revolt against President Fidel Castro. But since coming to power in 1959, Castro and his brother Raul
have survived the efforts of 11 American presidential administrations to undermine their dictatorial rule. The embargo became an
effective propaganda tool for the Castros to use in arguing that whatever ailed Cuban life could be blamed on Washington. Other
nations, from Canada, to Spain, to China, to Singapore, to countries throughout Central and South America, have forged trade
relations with Cuba.
The trade embargo makes even less sense today. The United States has never
been shy about doing business with both international human rights
violators as well as former foes, from Vietnam, to China, to Russia, to Saudi
Arabia, to North Korea and even Libya. Yet because the U.S. government has

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allowed a portion of its foreign policy to be held hostage largely by a small but
politically vocal group of anti-Castro South Florida Cuban emigres, the island
continues to be singled out for irrational special treatment.

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A2: QPQ CP (K of QPQ)

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A2: INCREMENTALISM CP
A GRADUAL APPROACH FAILS: CASTROS SAYS NO & THE CP

GUARANTEES LONG TERM OPPRESSION OF THE CUBAN PEOPLE
Suchlicki, Jaime. 2000, "The US Embargo of Cuba." University of Miami, June
2000. Web. 6 July 2013. <http://www6.miami.edu/iccas/USEmbargo.pdf>.// LL,

Professor Suchlicki was the founding Executive Director of the North-South Center,
and until 1992, Director of the University's Research Institute for Cuban Studies. He
is currently the Latin American Editor for Transaction Publishers
The gradual lifting of the embargo now will condemn the Cuban people to
a longer dictatorship and the perpetuation of a failed Marxist Leninist society.
The gradual lifting of the embargo entails a real danger that the U.S. may
implement irreversible policies toward Cuba while Castro provides no
concessions to the U.S. or concessions that he can reverse. A piecemeal
lifting of the embargo will guarantee the continuance of the present
totalitarian political structures and prevent a rapid transformation of Cuba
into a free and democratic society.
We must act nowDelays gut any effectiveness of U.S.

concessions
JT//JEDI
The U.S. cannot afford to miss another opportunity to normalize relations
with Cuba. A Cuba without Fidel is an opportunity whether it is Raul or his
replacement in 2013. The U.S. must lay the foundation today for renewed
U.S. Cuba relations. Delaying could also signal the contrary to Raul Castro
suspiciously awaiting the true purpose of recent U.S. concessions.

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A2: STRENGTHEN EMBARGO CP

Strengthening the embargo causes Cuban economic collapse
Mitchell Bustillo, May 9, 13, Time to Strengthen the Cuban Embargo,
http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2013/05/09/time-to-strengthen-the-cubanembargo/, JT//JEDI
Despite being Chvezs handpicked successor, Maduro only won by a narrow margin
and will likely be forced to cut spending on social programs and foreign assistance
in an effort to stabilize Venezuelas dire economic problems. Therefore, now is the
ideal time to take action. Without Venezuelas support, the Cuban
government will assuredly face an economic crisis. Strengthening the
embargo to limit U.S. dollars flowing into Cuba would place further
pressure on the Cuban government and has the potential to trigger an
economic collapse . A change in the Cuban political climate is within reach.

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A2: PICS
Small reforms failOnly fully lifting the embargo empowers
Cubans

In 2009, the Obama Administration announced a shift in the focus of U.S. policy
away from the Cuban government and toward empowering civil society and
supporting independent economic activity; it has since exercised its limited
licensing authority to expand family and people-to-people travel,
remittances and the provision of telecommunications services.
The Obama Administration has yet to call on Congress to repeal HelmsBurton (or its related statutory provisions), which remains the bedrock of
U.S. policy, and the largest domestic obstacle to responding intelligently
to modern day developments in Cuba. As long as Helms-Burton remains
the law of the land, its singular focus of hurting the Cuban government
will continue to undermine any effort to empower Cubans inside the
Island.
Cuba wont accept anything other than full economic

engagement

JT//JEDI
Bringing an end to the decades-old US-Cuba embargo is no longer just a

noble but hopeless idea. Conditions have changed to the point where
restoring normal economic ties would make for smart policy and savvy
politics.
Even as Cubans recover from hurricanes Gustav and Ike, their desire to end the
embargo remains strong. In rejecting a modest initial offer of US aid on
Sept. 4, Cuban President Ral Castro called instead for the whole
enchilada of normalized economic relations. The United States is equally
resolute in its nearly 50-year-old opposition to the socialist dictatorship. As simply
put by the CATO Institute, Washington's chief rationale for the embargo has been to
"compel a democratic transformation" in Cuba.
Yet common ground exists. In broad terms, both sides want national
security and economic opportunity. Now is the time to pursue those
shared interests. Mutually beneficial opportunities in three areas agricultural
trade, energy development, and immigration could provide the foundation for a
postembargo relationship.

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A2: PICS
Postal negotiations prove small policies fail without lifting the
whole embargo
EIN News, June 21, 2013, U.S., Cuba Edge Closer to Cold War Thaw, In
Hispanic Business, http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/2013/

6/21/us_cuba_edge_closer_to_cold.htm, acc. 7/5/2013, JT//JEDI
U.S. and Cuban officials are in negotiations to restore direct postal service
between the two countries, one more sign among many recently that after 50 years
of Cold War hostility they may be on the road to gradual normalization. While U.S.
negotiators deny that the postal talks indicate a change of policy, and the Cubans
said progress will not be possible without an end to the U.S. government's
decades-long economic blockade, there clearly has been movement in a
number of areas.
The government will counter-act small reforms

There is a sound reason for unilaterally lifting the trade and travel
embargoes without first seeing positive actions from the Cuban
government. From Cuba expert Carlos A. Saladrigas, Co-Chairman, Cuba Study
Group, We can go back in the history -- in the 50-year history of United States-Cuba
relations and clearly see that any time we begin to see a little bit of
relaxation of tensions in the relationship, whenever we begin to see a little bit
of openness on the part of the United States or Cuba, historically the Cuban
government has done something to counteract that trend and significantly
revert back to their playbook. 40 The United States needs to take the initiative
away from the Castro regime, and have them react to actions they have
publicly called for (removal of the embargo), but in reality are unsure of the
second and third order effects and their ability to control the outcome.

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A2: AGRICULTURE PICS

US Ag exports to Cuba are already huge
Ron Smith, Dec. 6, 12, Cuba trade holds promise for U.S. agricultural exports,
Texas A&M economist says, Southwest Farm Press,
http://southwestfarmpress.com/markets/cuba-trade-holds-promise-us-agriculturalexports-texas-am-economist-says, ACC. 6-13-13, JT//JEDI
Rosson, speaking at the Texas Plant Protection Associations annual conference
today in Bryan, Texas, said ag exports to Cuba could reach $450 million for
2012, short of the more than $700 million exported to Cuba in 2008, when
numerous hurricanes hammered the island nation and increased the need for
imported food.
Rosson said key U.S. ag exports to Cuba include corn, poultry, soy and soy
products, feeds, pork and wheat. Potential exists for increased export of higher
quality cuts of beef, which currently are limited to use in the Cuban tourist industry.
Since 2000, U.S ag suppliers fill some of those needs.
The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000,
created exceptions, Rosson said. The act permits exports of food,
medicines and some chemicals into Cuba although the embargo remains in place
for most trade. Also banned are imports from Cuba, including Cuban cigars. U.S.
banking with Cuba is prohibited as is tourism and spending money in Cuba.
Pork exports high now

Rosson and Adcock, 11, C. Parr Rosson, III, Dir. of the Center for North
American Studies and Prof. and Extension Economist in the Dept of Agricultural
Economics at Texas A&M University and Flynn J. Adcock, Prof. and Extension
Economist and Dir. at the Center for North American Studies and International
Program Coordinator and Assistant Director, Center for North American Studies, The
Texas A&M University System, October 2011, Emerging Markets for U.S.
Agriculture: Focus on Cuba, http://cnas.tamu.edu/Index/E312.pdf, ACC. 6-14-13,
JT//JEDI
Exports of other meats, primarily frozen pork cuts and hams, have grown
in recent years. In 2010 these totaled $15.3 million, up 43 percent from
2009. Other meat products include pork bellies and, occasion ally, offal and
dried pork. Beef livers and frozen beef exports totaled just $581,000 in 2010.

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General K Answers (CUBA)

If you really want your activism to make a difference, you
should petition Obama and Congress to end the embargo
DANIEL KOVALIK, June 28, 13, a labor and human rights attorney, and teaches
International Human Rights at the University of Pittsburgh School of Law, The

Unrelenting Economic War on Cuba, Counterpunch,
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/06/28/the-unrelenting-economic-war-on-cuba/,
acc. 7/5/2013, JT//JEDI
The next critical question is how can those of good will help and support
the good example of Cuba in the face of the U.S. blockade. Obviously, the
first answer is to organize and agitate for an end the blockade. As a young
Senator, Barack Obama said that the blockade was obsolete and should end, and
yet, while loosening the screws just a bit, President Obama has continued to
aggressively enforce the blockade. He must be called to task on this. In
addition, Congress must be lobbied to end the legal regime which keeps
the embargo in place.

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General K Answers
The scientific method proves no one root cause of violence
Homer-Dixon 2001
(Thomas, associate professor of political science and Director of the Peace and
Conflict Studies Program at the University of Toronto Environment, Scarcity and
Violence, pg. 7)
Some skeptics argue that environmental scarcity is rarely an important cause of violent conflict!' Clearly, as 1
will stress in the following chapters. environmental scarcity by itself is neither a necessary nor sufficient cause:
there are many conflicts around the world in which environmental scarcity plays little role; and, when it does
play a role. it always interacts with other contextual factorsbe they physical or socialto generate violence.
But this fact should not lead analysts to the conclusion that environmental scarcity is always unimportant. After
it is hard to identify any cause of violence that is, by itself, either necessary or
sufficient: the causes of specific instances of violence are always interacting sets of
factors. and the particular combination of factors can vary greatly from case to case. If
all,
we want to gauge the causal power of environmental scarcity's contribution to a specific

instance of violence, therefore, we must gauge its power relative to the other factors
contributing to that violence.
Utilitarian calculations in the context of extinction cause

mindset shifts to more ethical forms of politics
Epstein and Zhao 9 (Richard and Y., The Threat That Dare Not Speak Its
Name Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, volume 52, number 1 (winter

2009):11625 Muse)
Final ends for all species are the same, but the journeys will be different. If we
cannot influence the end of our species, can we influence the journey? To do so
even in a small waywould be a crowning achievement for human
evolution and give new meaning to the term civilization. Only by elevating the
topic of human extinction to the level of serious professional discourse
can we begin to prepare ourselves for the challenges that lie ahead. The
difficulty of the required transition should not be underestimated. This is depicted in
Table 3 as a painful multistep progression from the 20th-century philosophical norm
of Ego-Thinkdefined therein as a short-term state of mind valuing individual
material self-interest above all other considerationsto Eco-Think, in which humans
come to adopt a broader Gaia-like outlook on themselves as but one part of an
infinitely larger reality. Making this change must involve communicating the nonsensationalist message to all global citizens that things are serious and we are in
this togetheror, in blunter language, that the road to extinction and its related
agonies does indeed lie ahead. Consistent with this prospect, the risks of human
extinctionand the cost-benefit of attempting to reduce these riskshave
been quantified in a recent sobering analysis (Matheny 2007). Once complacency
has been shaken off and a sense of collective purpose created, the battle against
self-seeking anthropocentric human instincts will have only just begun. It is often
said that human beings suffer from the ability to appreciate their own
mortalityan existential agony that has given rise to the great religions but in
the present age of religious decline, we must begin to bear the added burden

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of anticipating the demise of our species. Indeed, as argued here, there are
compelling reasons for encouraging this collective mind-shift. For in the best
of all possible worlds, the realization that our species has long-term
survival criteria distinct from our short-term tribal priorities could

spark a new social ethic to upgrade what we now all too often
dismiss as human nature (Tudge 1989).

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General K Answers PERM SOLVENCY

REVOLUTION AND REFORM ARE NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
THE PERMUTATION CAN COMBINE THEIR CRITICISM WITH OUR
CONCRETE PROPOSAL TO ADVANCE A MODEL FOR FUTURE
DEMOCRATIC STRUGGLE
Michael Hardt & Antonio Negri, 4, Multitude: War and Democracy in the Age of
Empire., pp. 289-290
Whenever a massive protest movement explodes onto the social
scene or whenever there is any organized critique of the global

system, the first question asked by the media and sympathetic
observers is always, what do you want? Are you just malcontents, or
do you have concrete proposals to improve the system? There is, of
course, no shortage of specific and concrete reform proposals to make the global
system more democratic. Constructing such lists of demands, however, can
sometimes be a trap. Sometimes focus on a few limited changes obscures the fact
that what is necessary is a much more general transformation of society and the
structures of power. This does not mean we should refuse to propose,
evaluate, and implement our concrete demands; it means rather that we

should not stop there. Every such real institutional reform that expands the
powers of the multitude is welcome and useful as long as it is not
sacralized as a figure of superior authority and posed as a final
solution. We have to construct a method or a set of general criteria for generating
institutional reforms, and, more important, we have to construct on the
basis of them constituent proposals for a new organization of global
society.
There is no conflict here between reform and revolution. 82 We say
this not because we think that reform and revolution are the same thing, but
that in today's conditions they cannot be separated. Today the historical
processes of transformation are so radical that even reformist proposals can
lead to revolutionary change. And when democratic reforms of the
global system prove to be incapable of providing the bases of a real
democracy, they demonstrate ever more forcefully that a
revolutionary change is needed and make it ever more possible . It is
useless to rack our brains over whether a proposal is reformist or revolutionary;
what matters is that it enters into the constituent process. This recognition is widespread not only among progressives but also among conservatives and neoconservatives who see dangers of revolution in even modest reform proposals and
respond with radical initiatives in the opposite direction. In some ways, the
reactionary theorists of Washington, circa 2000, correspond to those of London and
Vienna, circa 1800, from Edmund Burke to Friedrich von Gentz and Franz von
Baader, in that they all recognize the emerging constituent power and believe that
the forces of order must oppose it actively, posing against the possibilities of reform
and revolution a violent counterrevolution.

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General K Answers
No error replication at best your K is a partial takeout
Emory M. Roe, 1994, Executive Director, Center for Sustainable Resource
Development, THE SHARP EDGE OF THE SWORD, Transition, Issue 64, pp. 113169, JT
The distaste that some critics in the responses have for working in or with government, a. k. a. the state, is
palpable. Plucking up "development" between the tweezers of twin scare quotes is about as close as these
academics want to get to something that smells so foul wherever they stand. If government builds the road it
planned, it's criticized for "development;" if it fails to build the road, it's criticized because its plans are based on
wrong assumptions (Ferguson's book is studded with examples of a critic's having it both ways). Thus, the
critic's Wonderland: If a government policy actually succeeds, then it's a disaster,

according to its critics. The fact that a policy's implementation frequently
falls short of what was originally planned is, however, never enough to make
the failed policy a "success" to most critics. In their view, the real success
would have been ensuring that government did not undertake the policy
in the first place. Yet, if the criterion for success is government not undertaking a bad policy, then why
aren't governments more often praised by critics for the myriad of bad policies they have considered but failed
What
this frequently leaves us-you, me, everyone-with are critics who
provide at times truly insightful analysis, until they get to the
section of their publications variously titled, Policy Implications.
Then everything falls apart. Here the critic recommends, say, massive land reform, no
to undertake? But what critic wants to take sides with "the state," and one prone to error at that?
matter how politically unfeasible or practically unimplementable it is. Addressing questions of political feasibility
would mean they'd have to know a great deal about the workings of government bureaucracies, and they know
quite enougha boutt hata lreadyt,h anky ou very much! Anyway, the critic's real role is to critiquey, es?A lwaysc
ritiquea ndt hereby standi n oppositiont o the state,n o matter if this continuing stance raises nettlesome
questions like, Just how does permanent critique determine when the future will be more acceptableth an the
present,t he present more acceptable than the past? What is or is not acceptable surely has somethintgo do
with politicalf easibility, doesn't it? Who needs to "chase off' or banish such critics, when they left years ago, of
their own accord. BruceR obbinst, hough,i s correct" the freedom of critical analysis that is a prerequisite to
social theory" should not be curtailedo r obliterated.I t is what these social theorists try to do with or expect
from their critique that everyone must probe further.
WE MUST TALK ABOUT EXTINCTION TO AVOID IT

Richard J. Epstein and Y. Zhao, winter 9, Laboratory of Computational
Oncology,Department of Medicine,University of Hong Kong, Professorial

Block,Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, The Threat That Dare Not Speak Its Name:
human extinction, Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 52:1: 11625, JT
Final ends for all species are the same, but the journeys will be different . If we
cannot influence the end of our species, can we influence the
journey? To do soeven in a small waywould be a crowning achievement for
human evolution and give new meaning to the term civilization. Only by
elevating the topic of human extinction to the level of serious

professional discourse can we begin to prepare ourselves for the
challenges that lie ahead.

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The difficulty of the required transition should not be underestimated. This is

depicted in Table 3 as a painful multistep progression from the 20th-century
philosophical norm of Ego-Thinkdefined therein as a short-term state of mind
valuing individual material self-interest above all other considerationsto Eco-Think,
in which humans come to adopt a broader Gaia-like outlook on themselves as but
one part of an infinitely larger reality. Making this change must involve
communicating the non-sensationalist message to all global citizens that
things are serious and we are in this togetheror, in blunter language, that the
road to extinction and its related agonies does indeed lie ahead.
Consistent with this prospect, the risks of human extinctionand the cost-benefit of
attempting to reduce these riskshave been quantified in a recent sobering
analysis (Matheny 2007).

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A2: CAPITALISM
Cuban wont let removing the embargo foster capitalist
transition
Gordon G. Chang 2-20-8, In Defense of the Cuban Embargo, Commentary,
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2008/02/20/
in-defense-of-the-cuban-embargo/, ACC. 6-14-2013, JT//JEDI
Even if we lift the embargo , Castros successors will not allow their
economy to be overrun by American tourists, investors, and corporate
executives. Fidels legitimacy, we should remember, is largely founded on his
ridding the island of foreign exploiters and his creating home-grown socialism.
Cuban leaders, in any event, would allow only enough commerce to
maintain their regime, just as North Koreas Kim Jong Il is doing today. It is a
Fukuyama-induced fantasy to think that history has ended and that we can rid
ourselves of despicable autocrats with just letters of credit and bills of lading. The
Castro boys, Fidel and successor Raul, have survived just about everything during
five decades and are not about to surrender to globalization.
Cuba will never embrace capitalist ideology. They may

harmonize economic policies, but will avoid the pitfalls of
neoliberal globalization
Heather E. Shreve, 12, J.D. Candidate, 2012, Indiana University- Maurer School
of Law, Harmonization, But Not Homogenization: The Case for Cuban Autonomy in
Globalizing Economic Reforms Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, 19:1, Winter
2012, pp. 365-390, JT//JEDI
The final principle is that Cuba must reiterate and must focus its policies on the
bedrock of the nationsocialism. As described in the Cuban Constitution,
socialism is transformative in creating a new and just society, [socialism] is
irrevocable, and Cuba will never return to capitalism.142 By maintaining the
view that Cubas globalization occurs within the larger framework of Cubas
socialist ideology, Cuba can effectively protect itself from possible
neoliberal policies that threaten the core of its system. Cuba may
globalize effectively without changing its ideology; it must make it
abundantly clear that the only globalization that can save humanity and preserve
the human species is a socialist globalization.143 Thus, Cuba allows for
harmonization essential to the maintenance of the Cuban economy
without betraying the foundational elements of the Cuban identity. In
reaffirming the central tenets of Cubas ideology, Cuba may take charge of
its globalization and carefully guide its citizens into the global economy
without exposing itself to the possible pitfalls of neoliberal globalization .

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Cuba has already begun the transition to capitalism


The economic changes reflect the reality that there is no self avowed
communist state in the international system that can sustain itself by
adhering to old outdated economic models. North Korea relies on huge
subsidies from China to stay afloat even as tens of thousands of its citizens starve
to death from malnutrition.
Cuba realizes that its economic model is not sustainable and that its
neighbors have disavowed their various forms of socialism in favor of
capitalism. In very real terms, Cuban economic growth has stagnated and it
must confront this reality by allowing free-market capitalism.
As the international system becomes more interdependent Cuba realizes that it
can no longer adhere to purely communist economic principles. Cuba lacks
vast tracks of natural resources like oil to sustain its economy and it has had to turn
to its neighbors for assistance to avoid a complete economic catastrophe.

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A2: CAPITALISM
Cuba will resist neoliberal globalization. Raul will maintain
Marxism in philosophy while adapting to engagement.
Economic harmonization wont lead to homogenization
2012, pp. 365-390, JT//JEDI
Although the end result of the Cuban economic reforms remains unknown, Cuba
serves as an illustration of the limitless flexibility of globalization to
create linkages, interplay, and engagement between the global economy
and the stateeven an ideological state that would be thought to resist
globalization. In short, Cubas economic reforms buck the assumption of
many theorists that Cuba could not or would not globalize and show that,
in globalization, the state reconfigures itself to be a global actor and to
engage in various models of engagement. No state is immune from
globalization; however, not all states must globalize in the same model.
Globalization, in short, is a transformative process by which forces at all
levels, from local to international, exert pressure on the decision making process of
states to harmonize with the policies and the practices of other countries;
however, while this results in similarities, globalization is not
homogenization. Therefore, it is possible for Cuba to enter the globalized
economy and to harmonize their economic policies with those of other
countries while retaining its Marxist-Leninist philosophy.
Cuba will make economic reforms but wont abandon its

ideology in favor of neoliberal globalization
2012, pp. 365-390, JT//JEDI
Ultimately, all of the forces found in these theories make it difficult for a state like
Cuba to resist change, as predicted by Larry Cat Backer. 127 Moreover, globalization
itself accounts for all of these changesit is both the transformative trigger and the
answer to Cubas motivation to reform. From a case study of Cuba, a historically
resistant country, the overwhelmingly unavoidable nature of globalization becomes
obvious; in the words of Fidel Castro, globalization is an inevitable phenomenon. 128
However, the mere fact that globalization is inescapable for Cuba does not
mean that Cuba must change its ideological basis or goals in order to
globalize; Castro conditioned his declaration by saying that globalization
was not inevitable if it was an imposition of neoliberal globalization. 129
Today, under the leadership of Ral Castro, it is clear that, contrary to
Backers 2004 prediction, a fundamental change of ideology is not a requisite
for Cuban reform.130 Instead, Cuba changes its economy within the context

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and the understanding of its own Marxist-Leninist goals, rather than

mirroring the Chinese or the neoliberal forms of globalization.

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A2: CAPITALISM
Raul wont let China or the U.S. their models of globalization
2012, pp. 365-390, JT//JEDI
Many of the changes implemented and issues raised for debate by Ral
Castro show the vast differences between his leadership and philosophy
with that of Fidel Castro. To begin, Ral Castros role as the former defense
minister,70 the most profitable state agency,71 lends itself to an entirely different
manner of governance, one in which Castro takes the view that Cuba can no longer
afford the bloated and paternalistic state he inherited from Fidel, and the states
payroll should be linked to productivity.72 Included in Castros goal for increased
productivity are a restructuring of the economy, a reduction in spending on
universal education and healthcare, phasing out ration book to be replaced with
targeted help, and granting wide autonomy to state companies with expectations
that they will pay their own wayand [be] liquidated if they do not, and can set
up joint ventures with foreign companies to create jobs.73 These changes, while
marking change in Cuba, show the Cuban state reconfiguring itself, albeit
out of necessity, to remain an actor within the globalized world. Although
changes exist, they are done in the context and by the power of the
Cuban government , not in accordance with the U.S. or Chinese model of
state engagement.
Economic harmonization does not require ideological

conformity. Cuba will stop short of neoliberal governance
2012, pp. 365-390, JT//JEDI
The very fact that Cuba is reluctant to globalize or is not globalizing for
altruistic, market-based reasons does not negate the significance of its
reforms. Indeed, the importance of the reforms is that Cuba, as a state, decides to
implement changes, albeit in a new model, to remain in power and to engage the
global economy. Moreover, in the context of globalization, the fact that these
changes are not accompanied with fundamental changes to the Cuban
Marxist-Leninist framework is an even stronger argument that global
harmonization does not require ideological homogenization, linear
changes, or a simplistic one world model. Globalization is infinitely flexible,
complex, and diverse.
Globalization in todays world no longer requires homogenization; Cuba
does not need to either adopt a neoliberal or Maoist version of economics to
globalize. Instead, it can remain Marxist-Leninist while entering into the
global economy. Just as neoliberal policies are not the only concept of

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globalization, as seen in China, so too Chinese Maoism is not the only

alternative form of globalization. The fundamental differences between China and
Cuba are vastfor example, the focus of the Cuban reform differs from that of the
Chinese,131 the decision by Cuban officials to shun Chinese market socialism132
in favor of limited Communist reforms,133 and the histories and cultures of the two
countries differ.134
Cuba presents a different story of globalizationone of a nation, rather than
making an ideological change without regard to outside circumstances, instead
shifting policies out of necessity and the need to survive in a changed world.
Moreover, Cubas story of globalization is one of a nation attempting to
limit negative effects of globalization. Cuba, while symbolically isolated for the
last sixty years, was not immune from globalizationthe countrys resistance
wreaked havoc upon the economic and social growth of the nation. Instead, Cuba,
as a global actor, reconfigures itself to retain power in its new model of global
engagement. And yet, Cubas decision to gradually reform economic policies is not
made in isolation; while Ral Castro certainly makes the decisions, many of these
decisions have already been made for Cuba by a globalized world.
Upon review, Cuba will retain its ideological goals without completely
compromising or adhering to the other forms of governancethis is what
globalization means, the permeation of even the most historically uncompromising
country and the harmonization of certain key ideas and practices embraced by the
rest of the world. Moreover, it shows that globalization does not stop with
market-based or neoliberal governance; instead, as Deng Xiaoping stated,
[The] [m]arket can also serve socialism.135 Although Cuba certainly will stop
short of embracing market socialism, it is engaging economic globalization as a
global actor.136 The state can carve out niches for globalization; however, the
question remains how Cuba and other states can limit the undesirable aspects of
globalizationhere, the neoliberal partswhile benefitting from the harmonization
of globalization.

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A2: CAPITALISM
Cuba will globalize, but wont accept capitalism
2012, pp. 365-390, JT//JEDI
Despite Backers assertion that Cuba, as a state, must relinquish its power and
conform to a prevalent form of engagement, such as capitalism, Cuba has
since shown that it will globalize without doing so . Instead, Cuba is a global
actor by its own choice, without withering as a state, and by creating its own model
of engagement in conformance with its ideology. Indeed, Cuba cannot and will
not resist globalization; it must globalize to survive. And yet, while Cuba
globalizes, it does so in its own manner, in accordance with its own
history, culture, and ideology.
Cuban reforms wont abandon its Marxist roots in favor of

neoliberal globalization
2012, pp. 365-390, JT//JEDI
The changes proposed by Cuba differ markedly from those of the past ,89
raising questions about the future trajectory of this reform. This is especially so if
Cuba eventually becomes a hybrid or market-based economy. Despite such
conjecture, the Cuban government remains committed to its MarxistLeninist roots; in the words of Marino Murillo Jorge, the Cuban Economic and
Planning Minister, [t]here is no reform, it is an update of the economic model. No
one thinks that we are going to turn over property: we are going to administer it in
another way.90 Juan Triana, an economist at the University of Havana, declared
these economic reforms are the most important for Cuba since 1975,
because [i]t reaffirms the revolutionary essence of our political system,
but changes the philosophy of our economic management. 91 Ultimately,
the Cuban government, out of necessity, aims to restructure its economic
system to increase the now-lacking productivity and efficiency that
continue to plague the country and to counterbalance many fundamental
benefits provided by the Cuban government, including free health care and
education, all within the context of its current political ideology.92 As such, Cuba
remains resolute in its resistance to the predominant models of

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globalization, and due to the flexibility of globalization, it will be able to

do so.

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A2: CAPITALISM
Reforms in SQ wont change Cubas central planning economy
Azel, 11, senior scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies ,
Jose, So Much For Cuban Economic Reform (Jan/10/2011), ACC 7/5/2013,
http://relooney.fatcow.com/SI_FAO-LA/Cuba_17.pdf /// JMR
With his characteristic intellectual wit, Cuban writer Carlos Alberto Montaner defines
communism as "the time countries waste between capitalism and capitalism." By
this account, the Cuban government is now in its 52 nd year of wasted time waiting
for prosperity. Much has been made of economic reforms promised by Ral
Castro, including by the Cuban president himself. "We can either rectify
the situation," Gen. Castro recently stated, "or we will run out of time
walking on the edge of the abyss, and we will sink." But one look at the
economic platform for the VI Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, now
scheduled for April 2011, and it's clear nothing much will change. The "Draft
Guidelines for Economic and Social Policy"a 32-page document that proposes to
chart Cuba's economic future affirms that "the new economic policy will
correspond with the principle that only socialism [i.e., Cuban communism]
is capable of conquering the difficulties." The document persistently
emphasizes Gen. Castro's militaristic themes of increased efficiency, discipline and
control. It insists, for example, on setting prices according to the dictates of central
planning. It also insists that any new "nonstate" (private sector) economic
activities not be allowed to lead to the "concentration of property" (that
is, the accumulation of wealth). There is no interest in introducing the
market socialism of a Deng Xiaoping, who famously told China's people in
1984 that "to get rich is glorious." It is not surprising that Ral and his
fellow generals are more comfortable with the chain of command of a
centrally planned economy than with the vicissitudes of a market
economy. More baffling is their failure to understand core principles of economic
development. After much debate and with trepidation, the Cuban economic
"reformers" have decided to permit the 500,000 to 1,300,000 Cubans being fired
from state jobs to solicit permits to become self-employed in certain activities. It is
instructive to examine a handful of the 178 trades and professions that
are supposed to help rescue the economy. Trade No. 23 will be the
purchase and sale of used books. Trade 29 is an attendant of public bathrooms
(presumably for tips); 34 is a palm-tree pruner (apparently other trees will
still be pruned by the state). Trade 49 is covering buttons with fabric; 61 is
shining shoes; 62 is cleaning spark plugs; 69 is a typist; 110 is the repair of
box springs (not to be confused with 116, the repair of mattresses). Trade 124 is
umbrella repairs 125 is refilling of disposable cigarette lighters; 150 is fortunetelling with tarot cards; 156 is being a dandy (technical definition unknown, maybe
a male escort?); 158 is peeling natural fruit (separate from 142, selling fruit in
kiosks). This bizarre list of permitted private-sector activities will not drive
economic development. But it does reveal the regime's totalitarian mindset. Here
Cuban technocrats foreshadow the degree of control they intend to impose by
listing the legal activities with specificity. These are not reforms to unleash the

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market's "invisible hand" but to reaffirm the Castros' clenched fist. One
does not have to be an economist to appreciate that the refilling of disposable
cigarette lighters, for example, will not contribute in any measure to economic
development. In his economic dream land of surrealist juxtapositions, Ral believes
that improved state management is the way to save the communist system. The
desire for control by the military and the Communist Party of every aspect of Cuban
life is antithetical to the individual liberty and empowerment necessary to bring
about an economic renaissance. Raul Castro, president of Cuba, and commander
of its armed forces, will affirm that "central planning and not the market will
be supreme."

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A2: CAPITALISM
THE PLAN IS AN IMPOSSIBLE DEMAND THAT SHATTERS THE
ALTERNATIVE PROBLEMATIQUE: THE COMBINATION OF THE
PLAN AND ALTERNATIVE FUNCTION AS THE OPTIMAL ACT OF
RESISTANCE. THE MERE PROPOSAL AND DEBATE ABOUT THE
PLAN CAN CREATE CLASS AWARENESS WITHIN THE SYSTEM
SOLVES ALL THEIR OFFENSE
Erinc Yeldan, prof. of economics at Bilkent University, May 10, 7, More
Scholarly Debate Please, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/4221, Foreign Policy In Focus,

ACC. 7-18-11, JT//JEDI
The question of the alternative is a tricky and difficult concept,

both in terms of realism and in terms of the very concept itself. On
the one hand, just being critical of the neoliberal globalization
agenda does not suffice often in embracing masses of people. One is
often confronted with the statements that well, globalization is
unavoidable and in order to benefit from this process you have to
follow the list of requirements. Thus, I believe that the quest for
alternatives comes to this juncture: to argue that globalization is
not a unique trajectory, that there are alternative globalization
paths as well. That, the alleged unavoidability of globalization itself
does not necessarily call for following the unique set of policy
requirements set by the neoliberal agenda.
But then the other side of the alternative problematique emerges:
should the quest for alternatives be limited by the constraints of the system, or are we supposed to
first and foremost indicate that no viable alternatives are possible that can improve the well being of
the working masses under capitalist exploitation? Consequently a dilemma emerges . Should we
try to offer realistic and applicable alternative policies within

the capitalist system? Or should we argue that capitalism cannot be
remedied or that, even if it could, this is not the task of progressives around the world since we
should only prepare for the revolution and life after capitalism instead.
I am of the opinion that casting the alternatives issue
in these terms is a
trap to be avoided. I suggest that the quest for alternatives should be
pursued at both levels, that is, we need to specify defensive policies
to remedy the working conditions of the laboring masses within a
capitalist system not to achieve desired ends per se, but to invoke
the arguments as a demonstration that alternatives do exist and yet
cannot be implemented because they conflict with the interest of
the ruling classes. Thus, the strategy here is to create class
awareness within the capitalist system. Then at a further level of
strategy, we can make our case for life after capitalism, that is,
socialism .

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A2: SECURITY K
The plan reverses the most glaring example of securitization in

the Western Hemisphere
William Ratliff, 13, Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and a member
of the Board of Advisors of the Institutes Center on Global Prosperity & a Research
Fellow and Curator of the Americas Collection at the Hoover Institution, February 1,
2013, Cubas Tortured Transition,
JT//JEDI
Americas post-Cold War embargo on Cuba is a clear example of failed
international interventionism. Making sanctions work, Henry Kissinger wrote in
the Los Angeles Times, depends on the ability to define an achievable objective.
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the United States has not had such an objective in
its policy toward Cuba. Our policy, intended to isolate Cuba, has isolated the United
States.
This has been most blatantly demonstrated for the past twenty-one years by the
United Nations General Assemblys annual call to lift the embargowhich Havana
demagogically calls a genocidal blockadebecause it adversely affects Cubans
and the freedom of international trade. (The vote in 2012 to condemn the
embargo was 188 to 3.) Cuba today does not warrant this extraordinary isolation. In
2010, former Senator Richard Lugar, then the top-ranking Republican on the Foreign
Relations Committee, correctly noted: We must recognize the ineffectiveness of our
current policy and deal with the Cuban regime in a way that enhances U.S.
interests.
Engagement dismantles structures of confrontation between

U.S. & Cuba
of International Studies at the University of Denver, May, Change In Post-Fidel Cuba:
Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy, ACC. 6-142013,
http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_fin
al.pdf, JT//JEDI
The logic behind dismantling structures of confrontation is powerful
because it creates a wedge between the leadership and the population,
particularly its own bases. The most powerful argument the Cuban leadership

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has used to impose restrictions on the civil liberties of the population is that the
country is under a national emergency due to long-standing hostility of the United
States. If there is a thaw in U.S.-Cuba relations, it would create pressure
for a
re-assessment of the nature of the perceived threat, and foment
discussion about the many political projects that exist within Cubas
nationalist camp and its population in general.

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A2: IMPERIALISM K
The embargo is blatantly imperialistic. The plan reverses this
hypocrisy
William Ratliff, 9, Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and a member of
the Board of Advisors of the Institutes Center on Global Prosperity & a Research
Fellow and Curator of the Americas Collection at the Hoover Institution, Why and
How to Lift the U.S. Embargo on Cuba,
JT//JEDI
The United States demands more concessions from Cuba for recognition than
from any other country in history. In fact, the Helms Burton Act is blatantly
imperialistic ,
in the spirit of the Platt Amendment to the Monroe Doctrine a century ago, which poisoned U.S. relations
with Cuba for decades.

Negotiations without preconditions, which Obama says he supports, are the next best though potentially deeply flawed approach.
Informal discussions between U.S. and Cuban diplomats already are underway. If Cuban pragmatists, including President Raul
Castro, can over-ride Fidels anti-American passions, perhaps the United States, if we are very flexible, and Cuba can work out a
step-by-step, face-saving plan to reduce tensions and normalize relations.
The Obama administration got off to a positive start by dropping the misguided 2004 Bush administration restrictions on
remittances and travel to Cuba, but then in public statements fell immediately into the trap of previous administrations by
demanding reciprocity.
This seems a just and reasonable demand, but in the propaganda-filled public arena it is a game-stopper. In practical terms, the
public demand for reciprocity hands Cuba a veto over U.S. policy, which it has used before to short-circuit emerging U.S.
moderation. Cuba will never make tradeoffs on important matters so long as the core of the basically flawed embargo remains in
place.
Lifting the embargo would unleash a new dynamic and put full
responsibility for Cuban rights violations and economic failure squarely on
Cubas leaders where it belongs.
We can hope, but cant guarantee, that ending the embargo will encourage
real domestic reforms in Cuba. We can guarantee that it will rid us of a
demeaning, hypocritical and counterproductive policy.
Engagement dismantles structures of confrontation between

U.S. & Cuba
of International Studies at the University of Denver, May, Change In Post-Fidel Cuba:
Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy, ACC. 6-142013,
http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_fin
al.pdf, JT//JEDI
The logic behind dismantling structures of confrontation is powerful
because it creates a wedge between the leadership and the population,
particularly its own bases. The most powerful argument the Cuban leadership
has used to impose restrictions on the civil liberties of the population is that the
country is under a national emergency due to long-standing hostility of the United
States. If there is a thaw in U.S.-Cuba relations, it would create pressure
for a

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re-assessment of the nature of the perceived threat, and foment

discussion about the many political projects that exist within Cubas
nationalist camp and its population in general.

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A2: IMPERIALISM K
Lifting the Cuban Embargo ends US economic imperialism in
Latin America
Lawson-Remer, PhD and Director of the Counsel of Foreign
Affairs, 13
Terra, La Verdad, 2013
http://www.yaleherald.com/archive/xxvii/1999.01.22/opinion/p10remer.html /// JMR
Although clothed in the rhetoric of freedom and democracy, the trade
embargo is fundamentally a tool of economic imperialism. When President Bill Clinton, LAW
'73, said that "the overarching goal of American policy must be to promote a peaceful transition to democracy on the island [of Cuba]," he wasn't telling
the full truth. Clearly, Cuban-style democracy wouldn't qualify as "free" by most definitions. Yet other nations with far worse human-rights records,
. Hiding behind
the rhetoric of liberty in dealing with Cuba is supremely hypocritical. The
real motive behind U.S.-Cuban policy is economic imperialism, not
democracy. American involvement with Cuba dates back to the SpanishAmerican War, when the United States forced Cuba to add an amendment to its constitution allowing the U.S. to intervene in Cuba's
internal affairs. Political imperialism gradually gave way to economic imperialism.
including Guatemala, China, Chile, and Indonesia, have received U.S. economic and political support despite their atrocities
By the eve of the Cuban revolution, foreign corporations, with the complicity of Fulgencio Batista's repressive regime, owned the vast majority of Cuban
assets. Consequently, the U.S. lent covert military support to dictator Batista from 1957 to 1959 by sending weapons and intelligence to fight Castro's
rebel army. Even after the revolutionaries came to power in 1959, the CIA continued to sponsor a counter-revolutionary army within Cuba. It's no wonder
that in 1960, when the revolutionaries nationalized Cuba's extensive wealth, they failed to compensate U.S. companies, while corporations from nations
that hadn't fought against the rebels were adequately paid. This seizure of property was the primary reason for the Cuban embargo. As Michael
Ranneberger, the State Department's Coordinator for Cuban Affairs, said,"One of the major reasons for the imposition of the embargo was the Cuban
Government's failure to compensate thousands of U.S. companies and individuals."
In other words, the embargo is
the vestige of an imperialistic policy, dating from 1901, which has been characterized by U.S.-backed dictators and
the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Now that the "democracy defense" of the Cuban embargo has been exposed as a farce, what is left to defenders of the status quo
policy? Cuba remains a communist nation, defying free trade laws, the trend toward global capitalism, and the U.S. corporate appetite for profit. One could
say, in the rhetoric of the Cold War, that the U.S. is simply standing strong against the communist menace 90 miles from our shore. Yet it seems evident
that the small island off the shore of Florida poses no security threat to the United States. More importantly, communism has been good to the Cuban
people. The infant mortality rate in Cuba is one of the lowest in the world (12 per 1,000 live births). Life expectancy in Cuba far exceeds that in the rest of
Latin America (73.5 years as opposed to, for example, 64.3 years in Ecuador). The illiteracy rate has declined from 25 percent of the population before the
revolution (mid-'50s) to 4 percent in the mid-'90s. It's important to note that all this was achieved without the support of the U.S., the World Bank, or the
International Monetary Fund. Perhaps Soviet support until 1989 compensated for the lack of global financial involvementbut it's doubtful. More
importantly, Cuban farm workers now have access to potable water, decent housing, education, and health care at a rate almost unparalleled in the rest of
Latin America. Before the revolution, Cuba had a higher GNP, but it was concentrated in the hands of the very rich. Today the wealth of Cuba benefits
every Cuban. Cuba is not an island paradise. Although the Cuban people have, on the whole, benefited from communism, the system is currently close to
collapse. This is due primarily to the loss of its largest trading partner, the USSR, as well as to inherent economic inefficiencies. The lack of a free
democracy in Cuba also remains an important issueit's impossible to support a system that denies full freedom to its citizenry. So what stance should
If we are truly interested in freedom, democracy, and

prosperity, we must consider the best interests of the Cuban people . In order to
the U.S. take toward Cuba?
regain prosperity and establish democracy, Cuba must make the transition from a state-planned economy under Castro to a market economy under a
. This cannot happen as long as Castro and communism are

synonymous with anti-imperialismand they will remain synonymous as
long as the embargo is in place. Cuba will need the help of economists in order to find a non-capitalist alternative to
democratic government
communism. While laissez-faire capitalism would wipe out all the gains achieved under communism, a non-capitalist market economy could create
prosperity without poverty. It's time to eschew the hackneyed rhetoric extolling the virtues of capitalism, admit that communism has been far more
beneficial to the majority of Cubans than rampant capitalism was before the revolution, and lift the Cuban embargo.

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A2: IMPERIALISM K
U.S. sanctions against Cuba are remnants of an
imperialist/colonialist policy
Lamrani, Expect in Cuban Affairs for La Sorbonne Univeristy,
10
Salim, U.S. Economic sanctions against Cuba: objectives of an imperialist policy
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Caribbean/USEconomicSanctions_Cuba.html ///
JMR
Cuba is no doubt the oldest preoccupation of U.S. colonialists. As far back as October 20,
1805, Thomas Jefferson evoked the extreme importance of the Caribbean archipelago under Spanish rule at the time stating: "The control which, with
Florida Point, this island would give us over the Gulf of Mexico, and the countries and isthmus bordering on it, as well as all those whose waters flow into it,
would fill up the measure of our political well-being." However, Spain could rule the island until "our people is sufficiently advanced to take those
territories from the Spanish, bit by bit" . In 1809, in a letter to James Madison, he wrote: "I candidly confess that I have ever looked on Cuba as the most
interesting addition which could ever be made to our system of States." The theory of the "ripe fruit" evoked in 1823 by one of the most clear-sighted and
intelligent political visionary of the history of the United States, John Quincy Adams mentioned "an object of transcendent importance to the commercial
and political interests of our Union" that was to fall in the hands of the United States at all costs . This object was the Cuban island, which was already the
priority of the United States government of the time. After the collapse of Napoleon's empire, the Monroe doctrine came into the world. It stipulated that
the United States would on no account accept European interventions in the affairs of the American hemisphere. It would enable the northern giant to
establish its power on the whole continent without hindrance, since Europe would not interfere. The theory was first motivated by Russian designs on
The Monroe doctrine

one of the founding principles of U.S. foreign policy had imperialist and
hegemonic aims. With the Roosevelt Corollary, its scope was later
extended to encompass a diversity of situations. Economic factors had a
primary role in the search for new markets. The birth of an industrial
nation and the rapid increase in the production of goods entailed the need
to conquer new territories. Because of its strategic position if the Gulf of Mexico and despite the failure of the various
Oregon and by the will to prevent any reconquest of the young Latin American republics by European nations.
attempts to buy the island to Spain, Cuba was in the U.S. line of sight . In 1890, U.S. investments in Cuba amounted to $50 million and 7% of U.S. foreign
trade was with the island. Spain spent $7 million on Cuban imported goods whereas U.S. imports from the archipelago amounted to $61 million. U.S.
economic interests entailed the need for the U.S. to closely control the Cuban market in order to protect U.S. investments . The main objective of U.S.
intervention in the Cuban war of independence against Spain in 1898 was to prevent Cuban revolutionaries to gain their sovereignty. Indeed, in January
1896, the captain-general of the island Martnez Campos, who was in charge of military Spanish operations, resigned, admitting that he was powerless to
stop the rebels who had managed to infiltrate into the distant province of Pinar Del Ro, at the extreme West of Cuba. In talks with Spain in June 1896, the
United States put forward the possibility of granting Cuba home rule status. This idea aimed at ruining the independence movement and infuriated Maceo
second-in-command of the Cuban army of independence who flatly turned down the idea . Although the Spanish army outnumbered Cuban freedom
fighters and despite its overwhelming material superiority, Cuban rebels were winning one victory after another and their prestige among the Cuban
population and the Latin-American public was growing day by day. The Russian ambassador in La Havana wrote to his counterpart in Spain that "the cause
of Spain [was] lost" . In the same way, Colonel Charles E. Akers, the London Times correspondent, wrote: "With an army of 175,000 men, all kinds of
equipment in unlimited quantity, a beautiful weather, no or few diseases, with everything working in his favor, General Weyler was unable to defeat the
rebels. " Mximo Gmez, commandant of the Cuban revolutionaries, declared on March, 1, 1898: "the enemies are crushed and retreating and when they
had the opportunity to do something, they didn't do anything." This was exactly at that time that the United States decided to intervene, when Spain was
put to rout. The U.S. wanted to despoil the Cuban people of its independence, an independence that had been conquered with machetes. U.S. Democrat
Senator from Virginia John W. Daniel accused the U.S. government of intervening to prevent a Spanish defeat: "When the most favorable time for a
revolutionary victory and the most unfavorable time for Spain came the United States Congress is asked to put the U.S. army into the hands of the
President to forcibly impose an armistice between the two parties, one of them having already surrendered." The armistice was signed on December, 10,
The vile Platt amendment that

was later repealed in 1934 after the United States started to rule over the
whole political and economic life of Cuba shattered the hopes of Cubans.
The United States replaced Spain in the role of the colonizer, a role decadent Spain could
1898 in Paris, by the United States and Spain. The Cubans were excluded from the talks.
not take on anymore. After they had suffered from Spanish colonialism, Cubans were to endure U.S. neo-colonialism and their northern neighbor was going
to "build an empire at the expense of Spain" . On January, 1st, 1899, after the Spanish troops had left, the Stars and Stripes not the Cuban flag was
hoisted in the sky of La Havana. The ripe fruit had at last fallen into the hands of the United States . After it had taken hold of almost all sectors of the
Cuban economy, the United States intervened several times to maintain the status quo, notably in 1912, 1917 and 1933 when protests were repressed in
a bloodbath. Before the 1959 revolution, U.S. companies owned 80% of services, mines, ranches and oil refineries, 40% of the sugar industry and 50% of
railways . The Batista regime enjoyed Washington benevolence because it wonderfully served U.S. economic interests. Cuba had to wait until 1959 to
taste the fruit of independence that had been forbidden to its people for almost half a millennium. But again Cuba would have to pay the highest possible
The total blockade of

the island imposed on February, 7, 1962 violates international conventions
and runs counter to the most basic juridical principles. Its main objective
is to re-establish U.S. neo-colonial domination over Cuba, using starvation
as a political weapon against the Cuban people. The arguments justifying this economic state of siege
price for this slap in the face of its lifelong neighbor, an affront that would not be forgiven. And what price!
varied according to time. During the Cold War, the "communist threat" that Cuba represented was the paradigm in use although any serious study would
smash this theory to pieces. Indeed, in 1959, there was no Soviet presence in Cuba. But Washington stuck to that interpretation: Cuba represented a

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threat for U.S. national security and Kennedy urged Mexico to back them up in their policy of hostility towards Cuba. But the answer of a Mexican diplomat
was not long in coming: "If we publicly declare that Cuba is a threat to our security, forty million Mexicans will die laughing" .

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A2: DEVELOPMENT/POVERTY
Cubans Dont Want to be Poor & want help
Sweig, Rockefeller, 12 -Director of Latin American Studies, Council of
Foreign Relations,Julia, Nelson, David, The Frozen U.S.-Cuba Relationship,
(2/28/12),http://www.cfr.org/cuba/frozen-us-cuba-relationship/p27510 /// JMR
How strong is the Cuban society's desire to move beyond the one-party system? It's
very strong. Public opinion is complicated because on the one hand, Cubans want
change and they want much more space--economic space, speech space. I
would say political party space, like having a multi-party system, that's not
the top priority for Cubans. But what is a top priority is having the opportunity
to make good for themselves with the wonderful education they have and
to run businesses and to have the state get out of the way, while
continuing to provide the basic social services that the entire population
has benefited from and gotten so accustomed to.

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A2: CHINA DISAD (Link Turn-ish)

China likes the plan
Xinhua 12 (U.S. embargo brings huge sufferings to Cuban people: China, 11/14/12,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-11/14/c_131971998.htm), Acc. 7/5/2013
The economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United

States on Cuba has brought "huge sufferings" to its people, said a Chinese
UN envoy here on Tuesday. Wang Min, China's deputy permanent
representative to the UN, made the remarks while addressing the UN General
Assembly on voting a resolution, which calls for an end of the U.S. embargo on
Cuba. The resolution, which condemns the U.S. blockade of Cuba and urges
Washington to end its half-century embargo against the Caribbean island country,
was approved by the 193-nation Assembly with 188 votes for, three against and two
abstentions. China voted for the resolution. This is the 21st year in a row that
the UN General Assembly has adopted the resolution by an overwhelming majority
of votes to condemn the U.S. embargo on Cuba. Wang said the embargo has caused
shortage of commodities and dealt a heavy blow to Cuba's economy. It also stands
as the major stumbling block for Cuba's economic development and social progress.
"Such embargo has brought huge sufferings to the Cuban people and violated their
fundamental human rights including the rights to food, health and education as well
as their rights to survival and development," he said. The Chinese diplomat
noted that one of the most prominent features of the embargo in the last year
has been "interference with Cuba's international financial transactions".
"This has not only hit Cuba's economy hard, but also affected the normal economic,
commercial and financial interactions between other countries and Cuba and hence
impairing the interests and sovereignty of third countries," Wang said. Moreover,
the call of the international community is getting louder and louder, demanding that
the U.S. government change its policy towards Cuba, lift embargo and normalize its
relations with Cuba, he said. China and Cuba have maintained normal economic,
trade and personnel exchanges, Wang said, stressing that the friendly and mutuallybeneficial cooperation in various fields between the two countries has been
growing. "China hopes that the U.S. will follow the purpose and principles of
the UN Charter and the relevant General Assembly resolutions and terminate
its embargo against Cuba as soon as possible," he said. "China also hopes
that the relationship between the U.S. and Cuba will constantly improve so
as to promote the stability and development in Latin America and the Caribbean
region."

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A2: CHINA DISAD (PAN Shell)

Economic competition with China is inevitableLatin America
is a perfect example of how constructing China as a threat is
based on ideology, misperception & miscommunication
JT//JEDI
American fears of China are partially born out of its (nominally) communist
nature. The logical extension of this fear is that the U.S should trust the
market mechanisms and worry less about what China is up to whilst
encouraging respect for the rule of law and liberal economic principles
among all players including China. [140] If you evaluate Chinas
economic involvement in the region, for the most part it all conforms to
the norms of the global market a cause for American celebration. U.S grand
strategy toward China has to be focused on integrating China into the global
community, thereby helping to shape Chinas self-interest in ways that will build on
areas of existing cooperation and create new opportunities for collaboration on
regional and global challenges. [141] Intrinsic to this strategy is the reality
that at some points, a China that holds an interest in the global economy
is going to compete with the U.S. This should not make the U.S lose sight
of the fact that China will be challenging the U.S from within the world
system that has served American interests so well, rather than from the
outside, which makes the Chinese challenge a less existential one than
that of the Soviet Union.
China and the United States are locked in a security dilemma that is propagated
by mistrust and miscommunication. Latin America serves as the perfect
example of this. The simple answer to whether China threatens vital U.S
interests in the region, is that China is only as much of a threat to U.S
interests as the U.S perceives it to be.

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THESE FEAR-BASED REPRESENTATIONS OF CHINA ARE ROOTED
IN RACIST POLITICS THAT SHOULD BE REJECTED THE DISAD IS
PREDICATED ON FEARS OF OUR OWN NATIONAL DECLINE. WE
PUSH WAR AS AN OPTION TO SUPPRESS INSECURITY
LIU 5, Henry C.K., Pres. Investment Group, Asia Times, Aug 20, Trade wars can lead to
shooting wars, Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GH20Dj01.html,

ACC. 7/96/2013, JT//JEDI
The prospect that China can be a major economic power is feeding

widespread paranoia in the United States. The fear is that developing nations, led by
China and India, may out-compete the advanced nations for high-tech jobs while
keeping the low-skill, labor-intensive manufacturing jobs they already own. China
already is the world's biggest producer and exporter of consumer electronics and it
is a matter of time before it becomes a major player in auto exports. Shipbuilding is
now dominated by China and aircraft manufacturing will follow. The US Navy is now
dependent on Asia, and eventually China, to build its new ships, and eventually the
economics of trade will force the US Air Force to procure planes made in Asia and
assembled in China.
The fear of China by the US dates back to almost two centuries of racial
prejudice , ever since Western imperialism invaded Asia beginning in the early
19th century. Notwithstanding that it is natural, ceteris paribus, that the country
with the world's largest population, an ancient culture and long history would again
be a big player in the world economy as it modernizes, the fear that China might
soon gain advantages of labor, capital and even technology that would
allow it to dominate the world economy and gain the strategic advantages
that go along with such domination is enough to push the world's only
superpower openly to contemplate preemptive strikes against it.
Furthermore, Chinese culture commands close affinity with the peoples of Asia, the
main concentration of the world's population and a revived focal point of global
geopolitics. Suddenly, socio-economic Darwinism of survival of the fittest,
celebrated in the United States since its founding, is no longer welcome by US
policymakers when the US is no longer the fittest and the survival of US hegemony
is at stake. To many in the US, particularly the militant neo-conservatives,
international trends of socio-economic Darwinism now need to be stopped
by war.
VOTE AFFIRMATIVE TO FREE THE POLICY DEBATE ABOUT CHINA

FROM THREAT BASED DISCURSIVE POSITIVISM AND ALLOW
COOPERATIVE VIEWS ON CHINA TO EMERGE
PAN 4
(Chengxin, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Faculty of

Arts, Australian National University, The "China threat" in American self-imagination: the

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discursive construction of other as power politics, Alternatives: Global, Local, Political, June
1), Project Muse
Neither the United States nor China is likely to be keen on fighting the other. But as
has been demonstrated, the "China threat" argument, for all its alleged
desire for peace and security, tends to make war preparedness the most
"realistic" option for both sides. At this juncture, worthy of note is an interesting
comment made by Charlie Neuhauser, a leading CIA China specialist, on the
Vietnam War, a war fought by the United States to contain the then-Communist
"other." Neuhauser says, "Nobody wants it. We don't want it, Ho Chi Minh doesn't
want it; it's simply a question of annoying the other side." (94) And, as we know, in
an unwanted war some fifty-eight thousand young people from the United States
and an estimated two million Vietnamese men, women, and children lost their lives.
Therefore, to call for a halt to the vicious circle of theory as practice
associated with the "China threat" literature, tinkering with the current
positivist-dominated U.S. IR scholarship on China is no longer adequate.
Rather, what is needed is to question this un-self-reflective scholarship
itself, particularly its connections with the dominant way in which the U nited
States and the West in general represent themselves and others via their
positivist epistemology, so that alternative, more nuanced, and less
dangerous ways of interpreting and debating China might become
possible.

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Independently, continued fear of China will lead to extinction
William Ratliff, July 31, 95, senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution,
Long-term U.S.-China interests, The Washington Times, Pg. A21, JT//JEDI
To be sure, cooperation often will not be easy, for fear as to Chinese
intentions pervades Washington and suspicions of U.S. motives remain
widespread here in China. Americans, for example, are particularly concerned at the
size of the Chinese military budget and what Beijing intends to do with its
modernized and expanded military capacity. Thus as Mr. Perry noted, increasing
contacts between the militaries of the two countries, and each nation's clearer
understanding of the defense policies and strategic intentions of the other, are
essential. This was the particular importance of Mr. Perry's visit to the PLA
gathering, a type of exchange both sides must foster in the future for everyone's
good. Short-term issues are not necessarily unimportant because they are shortterm, but they must be worked out by each side having consistent policies the other
can understand that look beyond short-term problems to longer-term interests.
The high probability is that the United States and China will be the two
superpowers of the early 21st century and our living together in peace
will be essential to the prosperity if not the survival of the world.

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A2: CHINA DISAD (PAN Link Ext.)

China is less confrontational than Brazil & generally
accommodates to U.S. power. Their argument is rooted in
constructing China as a geopolitical threat
JT//JEDI
Political analyst Mary OGrady suggests that the idea that China offers an
alternative to dealing with the U.S in both economic and political terms
is likely to appeal to the likes of Hugo Chavez, Brazils President Luis Incio Lula da Silva and Argentinas Nestor
Kirchner. [93] Some view this as amounting to the emergence of a Beijing
Consensus that offers an alternative to the market economics and limited state intervention that
was set forth by the Washington Consensus in the early 1990s. [94] This fear that it could be
displaced as hegemon by China emerges because it has no desire to see
Latin America slip from under its control, but also because the long term
American effort to politically isolate the PRC could become much harder to
execute. The worry is that China could try to use its newly formed bilateral and multilateral relationships to offset any
serious deterioration in relations with America [95] and become less dependent on bilateral political relations with the United
States in an attempt to become more independent. Hurrell states:
China has sought to accommodate itself to US power and to seek

coincidences of interest. It has criticized but acquiesced in US policies
with which it has fundamentally disagreedIraq most notablyand has been
less strident than Brazil and India in opposing US preferences within the
WTO. But this has been counterbalanced by a broadening range of stances
designed both to retain flexibility if relations with Washington should deteriorate and to lay the groundwork for a more active foreign
policy in the future. [96]
Presently, despite its rise,

China punches well below its weight in matters outside of East Asia. A
more politically active China would be seen as a direct competitor to
Washington; even if its intentions were benign.
A more active Chinese foreign policy is precisely what the U.S hopes to avoid.

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A2: CHINA DISAD (PAN/LA Link Ext.)
Fear of China in Latin American is pure Otherizing speculation

JT//JEDI
Latin America represents a good example of the China threat realised in
practice. As Chinese involvement in the region is at a very early stage,
analysis tends to focus on its goals which are described as economic,
geostrategic, and irredentist[6] and its capabilities, with an eye to the
worst possible repercussions for the U.S because Beijing is portrayed as
unhappy with the United States role as the sole global
superpower,[7] and many conclude that it ultimately intends a direct
challenge to U.S global power.[8] In practice, this means Beijings growing
political and economic presence is increasingly perceived by the United States as a
serious intrusion.[9] This intrusion will not be ignored by Washington
because it will be viewed as a fundamental challenge to its hegemony.
The United States is worried that the presence of China will destabilize the
region by presenting an alternative political and economic model rapid economic
growth and modernization alongside political authoritarianism.[10] As it views itself
as the defender of Democracy, Washington is irate that China presents a no strings
attached approach to Latin American trade and resource dealings, because it
undermines the U.S agenda to advance political reform, human rights and free
trade in the region.[11] The hegemon is not interested in alternatives to its rule
since the Monroe Doctrine, Latin America has remained firmly within its sphere of
influence.[12] There are specific issues that Washington has genuine fears about,
in particular, the rise of China is seen as complicating U.S efforts to control illegal
immigration, weapons shipments, the drug trade and money laundering because
China is cooperating with Latin countries that are not especially friendly toward
those efforts.[13] The accuracy and validity of the claim is questionable but
the fear behind the speculation is genuine. China is also often judged by
the company it keeps, in particular it comes under fire for its close
political and economic relationships with American adversaries old and
new, Cuba and Venezuela, who may try to use the Chinese alternative to
challenge U.S hegemony.[14] China may find itself guilty by association. The
USA has a tendency to see things in black and white to paraphrase, you
are either with them, or against them.

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A2: CHINA DISAD (PAN/Economic threat Link)

Their economic threat constructions of China are massively distorted
JT//JEDI
The supposed economic threat is a matter of perception. Some of the
headline figures used to highlight Chinas massive growth have also been
proven to be massively over-exaggerated . An Economist report in 2006
detailing the likely economic breakdown of the world in 2026 found that while
Chinas share of the worlds GDP at purchasing-power-parity exchange rates will
usurp the U.S by 21.8% to 21.1%, the more widely used system of share of
GDP at market exchange rates shows the U.S enjoying a comfortable
27.3% to 13.7% advantage. [133]
Also, considering China offers a whole new export market for the United States to
exploit, from an economic perspective, describing Chinas economic rise
or its economic policies as an economic threat to the U nited States fails to
reflect that Chinas growth poses both challenges and opportunities for
the United States. [134] Moreover, in Latin America, because it has no desire to
directly challenge the United States, China typically picks up secondary deals
or moves into markets from which the United States is absent: thus in many
places the two countries are not really in direct competition. [135] This situation is
likely to remain the case until if and when China feels more confident about directly challenging the U.S on political matters.

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A2: CHINA DISAD (PAN Impact Ext.)

Turns their impactmakes war more likely
JT//JEDI
The problem with Sino-Latin American military relations is that they are
distorted by perception and portrayal . A more apt assessment would
focus less on the formation of anti-American alliances and accept that
military relations are not the cause that propels Sino-Latin American
relations; rather, they are one effect of those relations. [116] R.E. Ellis
suggests that there doesnt even need to be evidence of a China threat or military
build up the mere presence of China at all in the region is fundamentally
unacceptable to the U.S. [117] But agitating China and treating it as a threat
may ironically be the biggest military threat to the U.S from the region. A
strong argument can be made that counsel to treat China as a major threat to
U.S interests is designed to justify huge U.S military budgets and is more
likely to bring about conflict with China than to deter it [118] and that fear
of China as a military threat, and treating it as a military threat, may become a self
fulfilling prophecy. Whether the United States is willing to accommodate Chinese
interests in the region is another question altogether.
JT//JEDI
The China threat theory, as already mentioned, is dangerous in itself for its
portrayal of China as a problem. Rather than viewing China as a nation
with malign intent, it is perhaps better to understand the problem as
inherently structural, as China is on the rise and the US wants to
maintain its unipolar dominance [125] - this means that while
disagreement and conflict are still possible, both sides should recognise
the other is acting out of the self-interest that is required to sustain the
system as a whole.

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The reality is, self-interest is a key feature of international politics, but it

can manifest itself in a host of ways, not all of them Machiavellian. Better
cultural and political understanding between China and the U.S would
ease some of the tension that underpins the China threat theory and pins
down China as Americas other. Despite all the attention paid to Chinas rise
and the consequences that follow, the United States still has a very imperfect
understanding of Chinas power and motivations, [126] an ignorance
which fuels the tension as much as any Chinese action. It is inevitable that
there will be clashes of interests and ideals; but if they were dealt with
pragmatically rather than prematurely, it could ease the Sino-U.S
relationship. Emma Broomfield notes that if managed correctly, through a policy
of engagement, the two powers will likely co-exist in peace and work together in the
twenty-first century. [127] Greater engagement between the sides can only
result in greater understanding over future issues.

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A2: OIL DISAD

Cuba doesnt have enough oil to alter US dependence on
Middle East oil supplies theres only a risk lifting the
embargo will result in technological exchanges that improve
safety
Benjamin-Alvarado, Professor of Political Science at the University of Nebraska
at Omaha, 10
(Jonathan, Cubas Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation, Brookings
Institute publication)
At present Cuba possesses an estimated 4.6 million barrels of oil and 9.3 TFC
(total final consumption) of natural gas in North Cuba Basin.4 This is
approximately half of the estimated 10.4 billion barrels of recoverable
crude oil in the Alaska Natural Wildlife Reserve. If viewed in strictly
instrumental termsnamely, increasing the pool of potential imports to the
U.S. market by accessing Cuban oil and ethanol holdingsCubas oil
represents little in the way of absolute material gain to the U.S. energy
supply. But the possibility of energy cooperation between the United
States and Cuba offers significant relative gains connected to the potential
for developing production-sharing agreements, promoting the transfer of state-ofthe art technology and foreign direct investment, and increasing opportunities for
the development of joint-venture partnerships, and scientific-technical
exchanges.
No investment-- too risky

Goodhue 6/6 (david, contributing writer; last Cuban offshore oil drilling ending
now; http://www.keysnet.com/2013/06/06/487368/last-cuban-offshore-oilproject.html //JW)
A Russian oil company using a Norwegian-owned drilling rig is temporarily pulling out of Cuban waters without finding any significant sources of crude, but
industry watchers say it is too soon to dismiss Cubas offshore energy potential.
The Songa Mercur was searching for oil in at least two prospects near the Bahamas exclusive economic zone with Cuba located fewer than 200 miles
from the South Florida coast. The Cuban government announced in late May the state-run Russian company operating the rig, Zarubezhneft, was leaving
the area but would return to the same spot in 2014. The announcement has major implications for Cubas energy future. The communist island nation is
Cuba suffered a major

disappointment when several countries were unsuccessful in finding oil in
the deep waters of the Florida Straits last year. The area about 70 miles
from Key West might contain large amounts of oil, but it is in very deep
water, the crude is difficult to find and working in the area is highly
expensive. Operations in the Straits cost companies about $100 million each in
exploratory missions alone, said Jorge Pion, associate director of the Latin America
and Caribbean Energy Program at the University of Texas at Austin. I have been
told that the oil is there, but the traps/structures are very difficult. So oil
companies are probably likely to spend their limited capital dollars in other more
promising, less risky areas (not only technical but also politically) than Cuba, Pion
said in an e-mail. They would rather go to Brazil, Angola, Alaska, U.S. Gulf of
Mexico or the new growing market of shale in Argentina. The Straits
heavily dependent on imports from ally nations like Venezuela for its oil needs.

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conducted by four international companies on a giant Chinese-built, Italian-owned semi-submersible oil rig worried both
environmentalists and critics of Cubas Castro regime. But the operation was largely a bust and only two of the participating companies are still in the
region: Malaysias Petronas and Gazprom, from Russia. Theyre operating in a partnership and are now only conducting some seismic work, Pion said.
The first company to work on the rig, Spains Repsol, closed its Cuban offices. And Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, is going through too many financial
difficulties to invest again in the risky Straits, according to Pion. The area near the Bahamas where Zarubezhneft is exploring is much shallower around
2,000 feet below the surface as opposed to 6,000 feet in the Straits. This makes it a more attractive place for companies like Zarubezhneft to search for
offshore fossil fuels. Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the Russian Federation Council the countrys equivalent of the U.S. Senate pledged in a May
interview with Cubas state-run Granma newspaper continued investment and involvement in Cubas offshore energy projects. We are currently
negotiating a broad range of projects relating to energy, and Russian companies such as Zarubezhneft are actively involved in oil prospecting in Cuban
waters, and this work is going to continue, Matvienko said. But the company might not use the Songa Mercur when it returns, according to oil industry
sources. One of the reasons Zarubezhneft is leaving Cuba is because the rig was having equipment difficulties. Instead, Zarubezhneft may come back in a
drill ship, a traditional seagoing vessel with oil-drilling capabilities. However, Lee Hunt, president emeritus of the International Association of Drilling
Contractors, said finding a ship that complies with the 52-year-old U.S.-imposed trade embargo against Cuba could be difficult. Such a vessel must have
fewer than 10 percent of its parts made in the United States. If the ship is not compliant with the embargo, companies using it could face U.S. sanctions.
Geir Karlsen, a Songa Offshore spokesman, told The Reporter his company has no agreement with Zarubezhneft to take the Mercur back to Cuba. Russia
and Cuba are not the only countries hoping the Cuba/Bahamas maritime border abounds with crude. The Bahamas Petroleum Co., based out of the Isle of
Man, received permission to begin exploratory offshore drilling in the region ahead of a referendum that would give Bahamians a say in the future energy
development of their country. This means drilling in the Old Bahamas Channel, south of the Andros Islands, could begin by 2014. The BPC is looking to
partner with another oil company in its search for oil. The company is also seeking European investors. Since the area is so close to the Zarubezhneft site,
Russias success there could reap BPC a financial windfall. Good news in Cuba would have helped in the search for much-needed capital and/or possible
joint venture partners, Pion said. A discovery on the Cuban side would have certainly helped their development momentum. Natalia Erikssen, a BPC
spokeswoman, said the company plans to begin drilling next year regardless of Zarubezhnefts success or failure in the region. It wont have anything to
because no significant discoveries have

been found off the Bahamas doesnt mean the oil isnt there. More than one
U.S. wildcatter made his fortune on the last roll of the dice, he said.
do with Zarubezhneft, Erikssen said in an e-mail. Hunt said just

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A2: OIL DISAD

No oil in Cuban waters
Bodzin 12 (Steven Bodzin is the Santiago, Chile correspondent for the Monitor; Cuban waters come up
dry http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2012/1105/Cuban-waters-come-up-dry-on-oil
//jw *Ellipses in original

International oil companies have been searching for crude off the coast of
Cuba for the past few years, including three separate efforts to drill for oil.
It was a challenge, as most oil drilling rigs are prohibited from working in Cuba
under the US embargo. But the companies found a rig and got to work. Now, After
3 dry holes, the rig is asail for Africa. Repsol[Spain], Petronas [Malaysia], and
PDVSA [Venezuela] all came up short. Petrobras [Brazil] abandoned its work on
the island a couple years ago. Now one might ask, in hindsight, did this drilling
program make sense? Maybe it did for Repsol. It never hurts to take a chance, and
if they had struck oil, they had the expertise and money to get it out of the ground.
And Petronas, why not? Like Repsol, they need to look abroad for growth. But PDVSA
and Petrobras, two companies with far more reserves than they have cash to
develop the reserves? For Petrobras, I think the effort was more about trying to get
friendly with Venezuela, so as to boost the possibility of Brazil receiving a piece of
[Venezuela's] Orinoco Belt. One giveaway was the location of the office that ran the
Cuba venture: Caracas. And for Venezuela, home of the worlds biggest oil reserves?
Was this project anything more than the chance to stick a finger in the eye of the US
Empire and say neener neener neener? Yes, I know. Eulogio del Pino, vice president
of exploration and development at PDVSA, has always said the Cuba project was
serious. But heres the thing: What kind of oil company puts millions of dollars into
high-risk offshore drilling when it doesnt even have proper lightning protection on
its tank farmsor up-to-date foam cannons at its refineries? I dont believe that this
was a serious investment decision unaffected by politics. Back in 2005 I asked an
oil reserves expert about the hydrocarbon resources off the Spratly Islands the
islands [in the South China Sea] that have recently been causing all sorts of
geopolitical concerns. He scoffed, saying that while he had no special expertise
about South China Sea geology, territorial conflicts often correspond with abrupt
increases in estimates of oil and gas reserves. Armed forces looking at a potential
conflict need to convince their own populace and government of the importance of
defending these scraps of land, and one way to do so is to highlight natural resource
wealth. Ive since seen the wisdom of what he said most recently someone told
me about the likely oil and gas riches in what otherwise appears to be a useless,
overfished triangle of sea between Chile and Peru. No coincidence that Peru has
been trying to get the water out of Chilean hands through a maritime law case. And
Cuba? Obviously, its a lot of fun to talk about oil reserves off Florida that are out of
US reach because of the ... old embargo. Its less fun to actually try and find those
reserves. Now, well have a reprieve from such games as Cuba seeks a new Keno
ticket, hopefully one that isnt the result of anti-imperialist magical thinking.

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A2: CASTRO/REGIME DA Link ans.

The economic benefits of lifting the embargo are distributed
thanks to Raul
Sanguinetty, 13 -Expert in Political Economy and Reform
Jorge (April 2013) Who benefits and loses if the US-Cuba embargo is lifted?,
http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/08/who-benefits-and-loses-if-the-us-cubaembargo-is-lifted-by-jorge-a-sanguinetty/
Who benefits and loses if the US-Cuba embargo is lifted? The answer depends on
the conditions under which the embargo is lifted. I focus on the expected
distribution of benefits (and costs) between the government and the Cuban
population. A unilateral move by the US Government, without any quid pro
quo by the Cuban government can be expected to yield significant benefits
to the official establishment with benefits of an unknown magnitude to the
population at large. I posit that the magnitude of the latter depends on the
degree of internal liberalization of the Cuban economy. Until Raul Castro
took over, the centralized command of the Cuban economy was subject to
a set or constraints arguably more restrictive than the US embargo. What I
have called the internal embargo consisted in the Cuban government outright
prohibition for Cubans to own enterprises, freely employ workers or trade
domestically and internationally. To many Cubans, probably a majority, such
constraints were the main cause of the country s secular economic crisis.
Lifting the US embargo under such circumstances was reasonably
expected to yield most of the economic and political benefits to the Cuban
government and limited economic and no political benefits to the
population. With the recent partial economic (not political) liberalization
policies implemented by Raul Castro, we can expect that the distribution
of economic benefits would be more favorable to the Cuban people. Such
new economic freedoms carry a dose of informal political freedoms as
Cubans are able to develop relationships among themselves that were
tightly constrained until recently, like freedom of assembly, to communicate,
and to make transactions and agreements without the tutelage of the
government. To wit, as the private sector develops because the government is
forced to reduce the inflated payrolls of its enterprises, the authorities lose control
on those newly liberated workers

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A2: CASTRO/REGIME DA REGIME LINK TURNS

Opening up trade with Cuba is more likely to subvert the
regime than help it

Perhaps the biggest shortcoming of U.S. policy toward Cuba is its false
assumption that democratic capitalism can somehow be forcibly exported
from Washington to Havana. That assumption is explicitly stated in the
Helms-Burton law, whose first purpose is to assist the Cuban people in regaining
their freedom and prosperity, as well as in joining the community of democratic
countries that are flourishing in the Western Hemisphere.
But the revolution in democratic capitalism that has swept the Western Hemisphere
has had little to do with Washingtons efforts to export democracy. Rather, it has
had to do with Latin Americas hard-earned realization that the free-enterprise
system is the only system capable of providing self-sustaining growth and
increasing prosperity.
Even though Cubaunlike other communist countries, such as China or Vietnam,
with which the United States actively trades has not undertaken meaningful
market reforms, an open U.S. trade policy is more likely to subvert its
system than is an embargo. Proponents of the Cuban embargo vastly
underestimate the extent to which increased foreign trade and investment
can undermine Cuban communism even if that business is conducted with
state entities.
Bandow 12, - Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute

Doug, Time to End the Cuba Embargo. (2/1/2012).
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-pointless-cuba-embargo-7834?
page=1 /// JMR
Lifting the embargo would be no panacea. Other countries invest in and
trade with Cuba to no obvious political impact. And the lack of widespread
economic reform makes it easier for the regime rather than the people to
collect the benefits of trade, in contrast to China. Still, more U.S. contact
would have an impact. Argued trade specialist Dan Griswold, American
tourists would boost the earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis,
sell art, and operate restaurants in their homes. Those dollars would then
find their way to the hundreds of freely priced farmers markets, to

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carpenters, repairmen, tutors, food venders, and other entrepreneurs.

The Castro dictatorship ultimately will end up in historys dustbin. But it will
continue to cause much human hardship along the way. The Heritage Foundations
John Sweeney complained nearly two decades ago that the United States must not
abandon the Cuban people by relaxing or lifting the trade embargo against the
communist regime. But the dead hand of half a century of failed policy is the worst
breach of faith with the Cuban people. Lifting sanctions would be a victory not
for Fidel Castro, but for the power of free people to spread liberty. As
Griswold argued, commercial engagement is the best way to encourage
more open societies abroad. Of course, there are no guarantees. But
lifting the embargo would have a greater likelihood of success than
continuing a policy which has failed. Some day the Cuban people will be
free. Allowing more contact with Americans likely would make that day
come sooner.

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A2: CASTRO/REGIME DA LINK TURNS/SOLVENCY

The embargo emboldens hardliners, but U.S. engagement can
strengthen reforms
DAMIEN CAVE, Nov. 19, 12, Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo,
NYT,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easingembargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, ACC. 5-26-2013, Lillie//JEDI
With Cuba cautiously introducing free-market changes that have legalized hundreds
of thousands of small private businesses over the past two years, new economic
bonds between Cuba and the United States have formed, creating new challenges,
new possibilities and a more complicated debate over the embargo. The
longstanding logic has been that broad sanctions are necessary to suffocate the
totalitarian government of Fidel and Ral Castro. Now, especially for many
Cubans who had previously stayed on the sidelines in the battle over Cuba
policy, a new argument against the embargo is gaining currency that
the tentative move toward capitalism by the Cuban government could be
sped up with more assistance from Americans. Even as defenders of the
embargo warn against providing the Cuban government with economic lifelines,
some Cubans and exiles are advocating a fresh approach. The Obama
administration already showed an openness to engagement with Cuba in 2009 by
removing restrictions on travel and remittances for Cuban Americans. But with Fidel
Castro, 86, retired and President Ral Castro, 81, leading a bureaucracy that is
divided on the pace and scope of change, many have begun urging President
Obama to go further and update American policy by putting a priority on assistance
for Cubans seeking more economic independence from the government.
Maintaining this embargo, maintaining this hostility, all it does is
strengthen and embolden the hard-liners, said Carlos Saladrigas, a Cuban
exile and co-chairman of theCuba Study Group in Washington, which advocates
engagement with Cuba. What we should be doing is helping the reformers.
Ending the embargo guts Castro regimes power to control civil

society

Replacing the all-encompassing state with one that allows greater space
for voluntary interaction requires strengthening elements of civil society,
that is, groups not dependent on the state. That development is more likely to come
about in an environment of increased interaction with outside groups than in an
environment of isolation and state control.
Supporters of the embargo casually assume that Castro wants an end to the
embargo because he believes that step would solve his economic problems. Despite
his rhetoric, Castro more likely fears the lifting of the U.S. sanctions. It is difficult to
believe, for example, that he did not calculate a strong U.S. response when he
ordered the attack on two planes flown by Cuban-Americans in early 1996. But as
long as Castro can point to the United States as an external enemy, he will be

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successful in barring dissent, justifying control over the economy, and

stirring up nationalist and anti-U.S. sentiments in Cuba. It is time for
Washington to stop playing into Castros hands and instead pull the rug
out from under him by ending the embargo.

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The embargo allows Castro regime to maintain power and
Cuban deprivation
Chelala, April 12, 13, Dr. Cesar Chelala is an international public health
consultant, Time is Overdue to Lift Embargo on Cuba,

http://thewip.net/talk/2013/04/time_is_overdue_to_lift_embarg.html, ACC. 6-142013, JT//JEDI
The renewed political landscape in Washington and Havana offers a long
overdue opportunity to reverse a U.S. decision that has been maintained for
more than half a century. It has also caused considerable and unnecessary
suffering to the Cuban people: the embargo against Cuba.
Remarkably, the embargo has benefited no one except its presumable target:
the Castro brothers. It has allowed them to maintain a strong grip on
power, to use it as a rallying point against the United States, and as a scapegoat
for the deprivations Cubans have endured since the embargo was imposed
in 1962.
The efforts of those supporting the embargo mostly the Cuban exile community
in Florida have proven to be counterproductive. They have neither weakened the
Castros power nor turned the population against them. In addition, the changing
demographics in Florida have made the younger generation there less
obsessed with the Cuban regime, and eager to see better relations
between the two countries.
Helms-Burton undermines Cuban reform


The majority of American voters, Cuban-Americans and Cuban democracy
advocates in the Island have rejected isolation as an element of U.S. policy
toward Cuba and have called on the U.S. government to implement a policy of greater contact and
exchange with Cuban society.ii As Cuba undergoes a slow and uncertain process
reforms, the continued existence of blanket U.S. sanctions only hinders

the types of political reforms that Helms-Burton demands.
of

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The embargo strengthens Cuban hardliners. The plan guts the
Castro regimes ability to blame America
The U.S. government has waged economic war against the Castro regime
for half a century. The policy may have been worth a try during the Cold War, but
the embargo has failed to liberate the Cuban people. It is time to end
sanctions against Havana.
Decades ago the Castro brothers lead a revolt against a nasty authoritarian, Fulgencio Batista. After coming to power in 1959, they
created a police state, targeted U.S. commerce, nationalized American assets, and allied with the Soviet Union. Although Cuba was
but a small island nation, the Cold War magnified its perceived importance. Washington reduced Cuban sugar import quotas in July
1960. Subsequently U.S. exports were limited, diplomatic ties were severed, travel was restricted, Cuban imports were banned,
Havanas American assets were frozen, and almost all travel to Cuba was banned. Washington also pressed its allies to impose
sanctions. These various measures had no evident effect, other than to intensify Cubas reliance on the Soviet Union. Yet the
collapse of the latter nation had no impact on U.S. policy. In 1992, Congress banned American subsidiaries from doing business in
Cuba and in 1996, it penalized foreign firms that trafficked in expropriated U.S. property. Executives from such companies even were
banned from traveling to America.
On occasion Washington relaxed one aspect or another of the embargo,

but in general continued to tighten restrictions, even over Cuban
Americans. Enforcement is not easy, but Uncle Sam tries his best. For instance, according to the Government Accountability
Office, Customs and Border Protection increased its secondary inspection of passengers arriving from Cuba to reflect an increased
risk of embargo violations after the 2004 rule changes, which, among other things, eliminated the allowance for travelers to import
a small amount of Cuban products for personal consumption. Three years ago, President Barack Obama loosened regulations on
Cuban Americans, as well as telecommunications between the United States and Cuba. However, the law sharply constrains the
presidents discretion. Moreover, UN Ambassador Susan Rice said that the embargo will continue until Cuba is free. It is far past time
to end the embargo.
During the Cold War, Cuba offered a potential advanced military outpost for the Soviet Union. Indeed, that role led to the Cuban
missile crisis. With the failure of the U.S.-supported Bay of Pigs invasion, economic pressure appeared to be Washingtons best
strategy for ousting the Castro dictatorship.
However, the end of the Cold War left Cuba strategically irrelevant. It is a
poor country with little ability to harm the United States. The Castro
regime might still encourage unrest, but its survival has no measurable
impact on any important U.S. interest.
The regime remains a humanitarian travesty, of course. Nor are Cubans the only victims: three
years ago the regime jailed a State Department contractor for distributing satellite telephone equipment in Cuba. But Havana is not
the only regime to violate human rights. Moreover, experience has long demonstrated that it is virtually impossible for outsiders to
force democracy. Washington often has used sanctions and the Office of Foreign Assets Control currently is enforcing around 20 such
programs, mostly to little effect.
The policy in Cuba obviously has failed. The regime remains in power.
Indeed, it has consistently used the embargo to justify its own
mismanagement, blaming poverty on America. Observed Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton: It is my personal belief that the Castros do not want to see an end
to the embargo and do not want to see normalization with the United States,
because they would lose all of their excuses for what hasnt happened in Cuba in
the last 50 years. Similarly, Cuban exile Carlos Saladrigas of the Cuba Study Group
argued that keeping the embargo, maintaining this hostility, all it does is
strengthen and embolden the hardliners.

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A2: CASTRO/REGIME DA RAUL PRAGMATISM

Raul Castro will embrace pragmatism
Second, reforms recently enacted in Cuba indicate that the post Fidel
Castro leadership is more likely to embrace pragmatism. In recent years, and
especially since Raul Castro took over the presidency from his brother Fidel, Cuba's
leadership has slightly moderated its political repression. While Cuba still holds
political prisoners in custody, the total number is down from 316 in July 2006, when
Raul took the helm from his brother, to less than 170 today - the lowest total since
Fidel Castro seized power in 1959. n19 However, these political changes have
been small, and do not yet represent structural or fundamental reforms in the long
term, especially since they are all easily reversible. Nevertheless, these political
changes, combined with small economic liberalizations in the agricultural,
technological, and tourist sectors, represent the first significant reforms
under the new leadership of Raul Castro.

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A2: RUSSIA DA (supports the plan)

Russia supports lifting the embargo
Voice of Russia, Nov. 14, 12, Russia hopes US may eventually lift Cuba embargo, ACC. 526-13,
http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_11_14/Russia-hopes-US-may-eventually-lift-the-blockade-of-Cuba/, JT//JEDI
Russia hopes that the US decision to ease the blockade of Cuba may be followed
by other moves that would fully lift the blockade.
This came in a statement by Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly
Churkin after the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution urging
Washington to give up its trade embargo thats been in place with regard
to Cuba for 51 years now.
The US has recently somewhat eased the blockade. It has specifically removed the
restrictions concerning visits by US citizens to their relatives in Cuba, as well as
allowed cash remittances.
Churkin feels that the unilateral US sanctions have proved incapable of
affecting the Cuban peoples choice of the model of social development,
but have only served to lower the living standards of the island countrys
population.
Russia wont confront US over rising Latin American influence

Dr. Mark A Smith 9 (Defence Academy of the United Kingdom) Russia & Latin
America: Competition in Washingtons Near Abroad? April 2009 // sb
mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/104344/.../09_Aug.pdf
Moscow wishes to expand its presence in Latin America in order to
demonstrate that it can develop relationships with states in Washingtons
near abroad as a counterpoise to the USA developing relationships with former
Soviet states in Moscows near abroad. Moscow is likely to continue to
expand its presence in Latin America. However it is highly unlikely to seek
confrontation with the USA in this region.

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A2: RUSSIA DA (impact answers)

No war despite tensions
Ivanov 3/12 chair of the Political Science Department, Diplomatic Academy,
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 3.12.13 //sb
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/767601.shtml#.UVFHThw4vzw
US relations tense, but no return to Cold War on the cards Nevertheless,
despite all disagreements, it would be wrong to come to the conclusion
that Russia and the US are on the track back to the Cold War. It should not
escape our notice that Russia and the US still have many areas where our
interests coincide and where we can and should cooperate, such as the
economy, humanitarianism, nonproliferation, arms control and fighting
terrorism.
No impact
David E. Hoffman 12, contributing editor to Foreign Policy 10.22.12 // sb
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/22/hey_big_spender?page=full
Despite tensions that flare up, the United States and Russia are no longer
enemies; the chance of nuclear war or surprise attack is nearly zero. We
trade in each other's equity markets. Russia has the largest audience of
Facebook users in Europe, and is open to the world in a way the Soviet Union
never was.
Cold war calculations no longer apply neither side would

consider war
Cartwright 12 James Cartwright, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff;; GLOBAL ZERO U.S. Nuclear Policy commission REPORT, May 2012 //sb
http://orepa.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/cartwright-report.pdf
These illustrative next steps are possible and desirable for five basic reasons.
First, mutual nuclear deterrence based on the threat of nuclear retaliation
to attack is no longer a cornerstone of the U.S.-Russian security
relationship. Security is mainly a state of mind, not a physical condition, and
mutual assured destruction (MAD) no longer occupies a central
psychological or political space in the U.S.-Russian relationship. To be sure,
there remains a physical-technical side of MAD in our relations, but it is
increasingly peripheral. Nuclear planning for Cold War-style nuclear conflict
between our countries, driven largely by inertia and vested interests left over
from the Cold War, functions on the margins using outdated scenarios
that are implausible today. There is no conceivable situation in the
contemporary world in which it would be in either countrys national
security interest to initiate a nuclear attack against the other side. Their
current stockpiles (roughly 5,000 nuclear weapons each in their active deployed
and reserve arsenals) vastly exceed what is needed to satisfy reasonable
requirements of deterrence between the two countries as well as vis--vis third
countries whose nuclear arsenals pale in comparison quantitatively.

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A2: RUSSIA DA (impact answers)

No escalation disagreements remain limited
Weitz 11 (Richard, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World Politics Review
senior editor 9/27/2011, Global Insights: Putin not a Game-Changer for U.S.-Russia
Ties, // sb
http://www.scribd.com/doc/66579517/Global-Insights-Putin-not-a-Game-Changer-for-U-SRussia-Ties
Fifth, there will inevitably be areas of conflict between Russia and the
United States regardless of who is in the Kremlin. Putin and his entourage can
never be happy with having NATO be Europe's most powerful security
institution, since Moscow is not a member and cannot become one. Similarly,
the Russians will always object to NATO's missile defense efforts since
they can neither match them nor join them in any meaningful way. In the case
of Iran, Russian officials genuinely perceive less of a threat from Tehran than do
most Americans, and Russia has more to lose from a cessation of economic ties
with Iran -- as well as from an Iranian-Western reconciliation. On the other hand,
these conflicts can be managed, since they will likely remain limited
and compartmentalized. Russia and the West do not have
fundamentally conflicting vital interests of the kind countries would go
to war over. And as the Cold War demonstrated, nuclear weapons are a
great pacifier under such conditions. Another novel development is that
Russia is much more integrated into the international economy and
global society than the Soviet Union was, and Putin's popularity
depends heavily on his economic track record. Beyond that, there are
objective criteria, such as the smaller size of the Russian population and
economy as well as the difficulty of controlling modern means of social
communication, that will constrain whoever is in charge of Russia.

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A2: SECURITY RISKS

Cuba has no capacity to pose a security risk
JT//JEDI
However, a great deal has changed after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Unable to even feed itself, much less extend the socialist revolution beyond its
borders, Cuba has become a mere shadow of what it once was. Its military
has been hamstrung for more than two decades by the most austere of
means. As a result, the FAR has been relegated to little more than a
residual and defense force which poses no security risk to the U.S. or
other countries in the hemisphere into the foreseeable future.52
Cuban intelligence services spy on the U.S. Only the plan

drives a wedge between Cuba and their patrons
JT//JEDI
Though its military decline has devastated the islands power projection, it
continues to court substitute replacements to past Soviet patronage.
Militarily these solicitations epitomize the adage that the enemy of my enemy is
my friend. The most obvious candidate is the current country of its old state
sponsor, Russia. Over the last few years, relations with Russia have
rekindled. While lacking its historic ideological alignment, the longstanding
alliance against the U.S. still has significant geo-political appeal to both
countries. As recently as 2008, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Havana
for those purposes. Later that same year, the Russian Navy made its first port call
on the island in several decades. Ral Castros reciprocated with a Moscow visit the
following year. A closer parallel to the USSR-Cuban alignments, China has also
intensified its affairs with the GOC. Also in 2008, Chinese Paramount Lead Hu
Jintao visited Cuba. During the visit, the communist countries signed dozens of
agreements including significant Foreign Direct Investments to upgrade the islands
oil refining capabilities.53 Finally, Cuban-Iranian relations have significantly
intensified over the course of the last decade. 54 As recently as January 2012,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Ral Castro during a Latin American tour which U.S.
Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida aptly called a tour of tyrants.55
A Cuban military capability that all of these countries would certainly like
to leverage is Cuban intelligence penetration of the U.S. Because of
relatively low cost of the human-centric spying, GOC has grown
exceptionally capable in this threat. Brian Latell, a CIA agent who has led
Cuban analysis, has affirm just that, Theyre one of the best intelligence
services in the world theyre comparable in a way to the Israeli intelligence.
Theyre very focused on a couple - one or two very central core issues. They do
those missions very, very well.56 This threat will endure as long as Cuban

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and American governments remain adversaries and can only intensify if

sufficiently coveted by potential international patrons.

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A2: SECURITY RISKS
Cuba is no threatThe embargo is unnecessary

ACC. 6-13-2013, JT//JEDI
The U.S. is one of the only countries in the world that does not have normal
diplomatic and trade relations with Cuba. The argument that the embargo is
necessary to ensure U.S. security from Cuban threat is no longer valid.
The U.S. Department of Defense has admitted that Cuba poses no
significant military threat to the United States (U.S. Dept. of Defense). Cuba no
longer serves as a base for Soviet intelligence operations, nor has it been
successful in promoting its Communist economic system to other
countries.
Current Cuba policy is hypocriticalCuba is no threat

Curt Ventresca, SUNY Geneseo, June 12, Cuba Embargo is Unjust and
Hypocritical, http://www.policymic.com/articles/10129/cuba-embargo-is-unjust-andhypocritical, ACC. 6-14-2013, JT//JEDI
By all accounts, the Cuban embargo makes no sense. The purpose of it was to
push Fidel Castro out of power. This failed back in the 1960s and it even failed in the
1990s after Cubas economy was hit hard by the collapse of the Soviet Union. Fidel
Castro is a very polarizing figure but one cannot deny that Cuba has made some
great strides under the revolution even if liberty was sacrificed to accomplish these
achievements.
U.S. policy towards Cuba is hypocritical and irrational considering the
brutal dictatorships the U.S. has supported throughout the world and
particularly in Latin America during the Cold War. Cuba is not a threat to the
United States by any stretch of the imagination and its foreign policy is based
mostly on humanitarianism and international solidarity, yet it is listed as a terrorist
state.
Cuba is being punished because it has successfully defied US policy in Latin America
and provided an example to other Latin American countries that independent
development is possible. One only needs to study the history of the region and the
long list of U.S.-sponsored coups that ousted other Latin American leaders to
understand the nature of America's relationship with Latin America. Many hoped
that the election of Barack Obama would change such hypocrisy, but for
now it seems those hopes have been dashed.

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A2: TERRORISM TURN

No evidence of Cuba being involved in terrorism
Goodman, Sandy 13. "Who's the State Sponsor of Terrorism, Cuba or the
US?" The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 05 June 2013. Web. 09 July 2013.
Sandy Goodman, a retired producer for NBC Nightly News, is a freelance writer. His
articles have appeared in The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times and the
Columbia Journalism Review.
President Obama may be determined to repeal George W. Bush's global war on
terrorism. But that didn't stop the State Department from declaring last week, on
the flimsiest of evidence, that Cuba is a state sponsor of terrorism for the 30th
straight year.
This, despite the department's admission that there's "no indication that
the Cuban government provided weapons or training to terrorist groups."
The department also points out that Cuba has now joined an international
compact against terrorist-financing, and is trying to broker an end to the
49-year-old civil war between Colombia's FARC guerrillas, whom Cuba once
supported, and their government, a U.S. ally. The hardest evidence State could
offer to back up its listing was that Cuba has continued to provide safe haven to two
dozen Spanish Basque separatists and some fugitives wanted in the United States.
By contrast, the U.S. accused Iran, another on its terrorism sponsor list, of such
misconduct as bombings carried out in two countries and and attempted in a third,
training and equipping Afghan Taliban and Iraqi militants, and masterminding a plot
to murder the Saudi ambassador to Washington. "Regardless of what got Cuba on
the list in the the 1980s, there's no recent evidence of Cuba's being involved
in any international terrorist activities," Philip Peters told me. Peters is a long-time expert on Cuban
affairs who heads the new Cuba Research Center. The U.S. government tried to strengthen its case against Cuba a month ago,
when the FBI announced that a sixty-five-year-old grandmother who calls herself Assata Shakur and was once named Joanne
Chesimard became the first woman ever put on its ten most wanted terrorists list. Shakur/Chesimard was arrested in May 1973,
after a shootout on the New Jersey Turnpike, with two other members of the Black Liberation Army, a group responsible for murders
and robberies. One policeman was killed, as was a male BLA member. Shakur/Chesimard, who was wounded, and the other man,
were arrested. He was convicted as the killer and is serving life. A second policeman, who was wounded, accused her of shooting
him but later admitted he'd lied and had never even seen her with a gun. FBI crime lab tests revealed no gunpowder residue on her
fingers, and none of her fingerprints on any weapon. Nevertheless, she was convicted of first degree murder and seven other
felonies under a New Jersey law that makes someone found guilty of aiding and abetting crimes guilty of the crimes themselves.
Black radicals broke Shakur/Chesimard out of prison in 1979 and she's been living in Cuba since 1984. In announcing her placement
on the terrorist list last month, 40 years after her conviction, an FBI spokesman called her "a domestic terrorist who murdered a law
enforcement officer execution-style" and "a danger to the American government" because of speeches he said she still makes
urging revolution and anti-U.S. terrorism. Her lawyers dispute not only her guilt but her being called a terrorist. One, Evelyn Williams,
charges she's "the only person convicted of a single domestic crime" labelled a terrorist and put on the list, "thereby nullifying the
very definition of 'terrorism'." Shakur/Chesimard shares the list with eight men accused of bombings, murders, airline hijacking and
hostage-taking, all committed overseas, and one animal rights extremist charged with bombing two California companies. In
contrast, her entry lists her crime as being "wanted for escaping from prison in Clinton, N.J. while serving a life sentence for murder."
Cuba expert Philip Peters speculates that putting her on the FBI list may be "a reason to keep Cuba on as a state sponsor of
the U.S. is hardly in a position to complain about Cuban

terrorism because our government has gone out of its way to protect
murderous anti-Castro terrorists. Among many examples, the worst are Luis Posada and the late Orlando
terrorism." Actually,
Bosch, two ex-CIA men given safe haven in this country, despite their involvement in large-scale murders and many other terrorist
crimes. Both spent years in Venezuelan jails for masterminding the 1976 bombing of a Cuban airliner that killed 73 people. Both had
long terrorist histories. Bosch, who died two years ago, headed an exile group that claimed responsibility for 11 bombing attacks
against Cuban properties. The Justice Department accused him of more than 30 acts of sabotage and he was jailed for four years in
this country. Attorney General Richard Thornburgh described Bosch as "an unrepentant terrorist." He was ordered deported in 1988.
But at the urging of Jeb Bush, then a Florida businessman and later the state's governor, his father, President George H.W. Bush,
overruled the deportation order, allowing Bosch to spend his last 21 years as a free man in Miami. He died at 84. Posada, 85,
remains alive and free in Miami. Two employees of his private detective agency confessed to the airline bombing and said he put
them up to it. He denied it. He escaped jail in 1985 and, despite his record, was rehired by the CIA to help supply the Nicaraguan

JEDI 2013
The Escobarbarians
Contras. Authorities say Posada was responsible for dozens of terrorist bombings. He boasted to theNew York Times that he planned
the 1997 bombings of seven Havana hotels and restaurants that killed an Italian tourist and injured 11 other people, but later denied
it. He was jailed in Panama for four years after a failed plot to assassinate the visiting Fidel Castro. Posada has been in the U.S.
since his illegal entry in 2005. A judge wanted to deport him but refused to send him to Venezuela or Cuba, the only countries willing
to accept him (so they could try him). The judge said he'd be tortured if sent to either. Today, cleared of all charges, he's a hero to
many Cuban-Americans. There are much worse defects in U.S.-Cuba policy than the fact that the island is on our terrorist lists. Our
53-year-old trade embargo is a miserable failure. Travel restrictions make Cuba the only country our government won't allow most
nothing is as
hypocritical and morally reprehensible as our terrorism policy. We claim to
be fighting a global war on terrorism. But our government has given aid,
comfort and safe haven from justice to some of the world's worst
terrorists.
Americans to visit. Our far-too-lax immigration rules uniquely for Cubans are ridiculously outdated. But

JEDI 2013
The Escobarbarians
A2: TERRORISM TURN

Cuba does not harbor terrorists
Franks, Jeff 13 "Cuba Says Inclusion on U.S. Terrorist List 'shameful'" Reuters.
Thomson Reuters, 31 May 2013. Web. 09 July 2013.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-cuba-usa-terrorismidUSBRE94U05020130531// LL
In what has become an annual ritual, the United States on Thursday kept Cuba
on its list of "state sponsors of terrorism" and Havana reacted angrily,
calling it a "shameful decision" based in politics, not reality. Cuba said in a
statement that the U.S. government was pandering to the Cuban exile community
in Miami against its own interests and the wishes of the American people. "It
hopes to please an anti-Cuban group, growing smaller all the time, which
tries to maintain a policy that now has no support and doesn't even
represent the national interests of the United States," said the statement
issued by Cuba's foreign ministry. Iran, Sudan and Syria also are on the list, which is
published annually by the U.S. State Department. Cuba has been on it since 1982.
The terrorism designation comes with a number of sanctions, including a prohibition
on U.S. economic assistance and financial restrictions that create problems for Cuba
in international commerce, already made difficult by a U.S. trade embargo imposed
against the island since 1962. The State Department's explanation for Cuba's
inclusion on the list discounted most of the reasons from previous years and said
"there was no indication that the Cuban government provided weapons or
paramilitary training to terrorist groups." In the past, the report fingered Cuba
for harboring rebels from the Marxist-led FARC, or Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia, and members of Basque separatist groups. This year, it noted that Cuba
is sponsoring peace talks between the FARC and the Colombian
government and has moved to distance itself from the Basques.
Washington's primary accusation was that Cuba harbors and provides aid to
fugitives from U.S. justice. Cuba does not deny that it has fugitives from the United
States, but said none had been accused of terrorism. Robert Muse, a Washington
attorney who specializes in Cuba issues, said there is no legal basis for
designating Cuba as a terrorist sponsor because of the presence of the
fugitives. He said they remain on the island because the Washington has refused
to honor a longstanding extradition treaty with Cuba. Earlier this month, the FBI
placed one of the fugitives, Joanne Chesimard, on its most wanted terrorist list 40
years after she was convicted of killing a New Jersey state trooper. Chesimard, a
former member of a black militant group, has been in Cuba since 1984. Cuba
rejected the notion that she or anyone else on the island was involved in terrorist
activities. "The territory of Cuba has never been used and never will be to
harbor terrorists of any origin, nor to organize, finance or perpetrate acts
of terrorism against any country in the world, including the United States,"
it said. Geoff Thale, program director at the Washington Office on Latin America
think tank, said President Barack Obama can take Cuba off the terrorist list at any
time and should do so because it is "clear that the State Department doesn't really

JEDI 2013
The Escobarbarians
believe that Cuba is a state sponsor of terrorism." Removing Cuba from the list
would improve relations with Cuba and all of Latin America, which sees U.S. policy
toward Cuba "as a reflection of U.S. attitudes toward the region as a whole," Thale
said.

JEDI 2013
The Escobarbarians
A2: TERRORISM TURN

Cuba doesnt belong on the state sponsored terror list
Williams, Carol J. 13 "Political Calculus Keeps Cuba on U.S. List of Terror
Sponsors." Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, 03 May 2013. Web. 09 July 2013.
Senior International Affairs Writer at Los Angeles Times
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/06/03/rubio_cuba_belongs_on_the_stat
e_sponsor_of_terror_list. // LL
Cubas communist leadership was quick to send condolences to the victims of
the Boston Marathon bombings and to reiterate to Washington that it rejects and
condemns unequivocally all acts of terrorism. Once a key supplier of arms
and training to leftist rebels in Latin America, the Castro regime long ago
disentangled itself from the Cold War-era confrontations. Havana now
hosts peace talks between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
that it once supported and the U.S.-allied government the insurgents battled for
years. Havana still gives refuge to a few fugitive radicals from the Black Panthers
and Basque insurgents, and two years ago a Cuban court convicted 64-year-old
development specialist Alan Gross on spying charges for attempting to install
satellite equipment without government permission. But nothing that Cuba has
done suggests its government is plotting harm against Americans,
national security experts say. And they criticize as counterproductive the
State Departments decision, disclosed this week, to keep Cuba on its list
of state sponsors of terrorism. We ought to reserve that term for
nations that actually use the apparatus of statehood to support the
targeting of U.S. interests and civilians, said Juliette Kayyem, a former
assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Homeland
Security and now writing and lecturing on national security in the Boston area.
Yes, Cuba does a lot of bad things that we dont like, but it doesnt rise
to anything on the level of a terrorist threat.
On Wednesday, State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said the administration has no current plans to remove Cuba from
the list to be released later this month. The island nation that has been under a U.S. trade and travel embargo since shortly after
revolutionary leader Fidel Castro came to power in 1959 is in the company of only Iran, Syria and Sudan in being branded with the
state sponsor label. Kayyem laments the diluting of the terrorist designation based on political or ideological disputes. We
work with a lot of countries we dont like, but the imprimatur of terrorism has a ring to it in a way that can be harmful to us, she
said. Collaboration between the United States and Cuba on emergency planning to respond to the mutual threats posed by
hurricanes, oil spills and refugee crises are complicated by the set of trade and financial restrictions that comes along with the
state sponsor censure, Kayyem said. There are some real operational impediments when we have a system that begins with no
rather than why not? she said of the legally encumbered contacts between Havana and Washington. Politicians who have pushed
for a continued hard line against Cuba cheered their victory in getting the Obama administration to keep Cuba on the list. U.S. Rep.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a South Florida Republican whose efforts to isolate and punish the Castro regime have been a central plank of
her election strategy throughout her 24 years in Congress, hailed the State Department decision as reaffirming the threat that the
Castro regime represents. Arash Aramesh, a national security analyst at Stanford Law School, blamed the continued branding of
Cuba as a terrorism sponsor on politicians pandering for a certain political base. He also said President Obama and Secretary of
State John F. Kerry have failed to make a priority of removing the impediment to better relations with Cuba. As much as Id like to
it takes away from the State Departments

credibility when they include countries on the list that arent even close
to threatening Americans, Aramesh said. Political considerations also factor into
excluding countries from the state sponsor list, he said, pointing to Pakistan as a
prime example. Although Islamabad very clearly supports terrorist and insurgent
organizations, he said, the U.S. government has long refused to provoke its ally in
the region with the official censure.
see the Castro regime gone and an open and free Cuba,

JEDI 2013
The Escobarbarians
The decision to retain Cuba on the list surprised some observers of the
long-contentious relationship between Havana and Washington. Since
Fidel Castro retired five years ago and handed the reins of power to his younger
brother, Raul, modest economic reforms have been tackled and the
government has revoked the practice of requiring Cubans to get exit visas before
they could leave their country for foreign travel.

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TWR CUBA EMBARGO AFF WAVE 1

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

The U.S. will keep the embargo as long as a Castro is in power

Texas A&M economist says, Southwest Farm Press,

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

PLAN: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

http://tbo.com/list/news-opinion-editorials/having-more-influence-on-cubas-transition-645282, ACC. 61-2013, JT//JEDI

Cuba will say yes to the plan

Lifting the embargo engages Cuba as a trust-building measure

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

ending US embargo would help both countries, September 20, Online:

Repealing Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions shifts

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Congress currently will not act on Cuba now

University of Mississippi, ACC. 6-14-2013,

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Recent exemptions are mostly symbolic. We need bolder

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Cuba. President Obama also appears to be pursuing a diplomatic opening with

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

Little was planned to mark Tuesday's

anniversary, but Cuban-American members of Congress issued a joint

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

EMBARGO BAD GENERAL

Hardline embargo supporters are delusional in rejecting

The pro-embargo lobby silences discussion on Cuba policy

problem, the embargo is, CNN, ACC. 6-14-2013,

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

there is still a major ban. Enter Jay Z and Beyonc.

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

EMBARGO = THESE LAWS

Policy Toward Cuba, accessed 6-24-2013,

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

DEMOCRACY CONDITIONING BAD/FAILS

Economic engagement doubles for diplomacy as a precursor to

Another reason economic reforms are likely to precede political reforms is

Economic change is a precursor to political change and should

The United States should recognize that economic change is a precursor to

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

DEMOCRACY CONDITIONING BAD/FAILS

Democratic conditioning undermines political reform

Requiring democracy before engagement is a dead end. The

Status quo Cuba policy is unsustainable and defers

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA518053, ACC. 6-11-2013,

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

DEMOCRACY CONDITIONING = WAR

The status quo risks military conflict with Cuba

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

BIG ADVANTAGE INTERNAL

2 . It's good politics .

there's a long-standing empirical relationship between trade

6. It's counter-productive. Isolating Cuba has been more than ineffective.

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

policy is perpetuating an injustice.

Cuba Embargo Aff. (Wave 1)

BIG ADVANTAGE INTERNAL