THE ELWAY POLL

8 JAN 15

8 JANUARY 2015

Glimmer of Hope for a Transportation Package?

Providing what cons tutes a glimmer of hope to advocates of a legisla ve transporta on package, Washington voters interviewed for The Elway Poll last week were evenly split over whether we could aord to raise
taxes for state transporta on improvements.
45% said we cannot aord to raise taxes for transporta on improvements at this me, while
47% said we cannot aord not to improve the transporta on system, so taxes will have to be raised.
That is a 16-point net swing since 2013, when 54% said we could not aord the taxes needed for transporta on improvements and 40% said we had to raise taxes to improve the system.
Whether the glimmer of hope is a mirage depends in part on support for actual taxes required to fund a
transporta on package. As usual, here is where the glimmer starts to fade.
Four poten al taxes were tested in this survey: two new ones and two familiar ones. For each, respondents were asked whether they 1) favored that tax, 2) thought it could be an acceptable part of a solu on, 3)
were inclined to oppose it or 4) found it unacceptable.
Only two of the fourone new and one familiarwere deemed even poten ally acceptable as part of a
solu on to most respondents:
70% said a carbon tax was acceptable, including 45% who favored that tax (more on the carbon below);
53% said it could be acceptable to let coun es raise car tabs for local road improvements. Only 25% favored
that approach outright, however, while 44% opposed it.
Of the other two taxes:
62% opposed an increase in the gas tax, the tradi onal source of transporta on funds; and
55% opposed a tax on miles travelled, a new concept gaining some a en on in Olympia.
There was some thought that lower gas prices might ease opposi on to a gas tax hike. Opposi on may
have eased, but it has not diminished. Overall opposi on was virtually iden cal to results in 2013 when 63%
were opposed. The propor on who found it unacceptable did go down, however, from 44% to 37%.

FUNDING RELATED TO PERCEPTIONS OF DOT

Opinions about transporta on funding were related to TAXES INCREASE FOR TRANSPORTATION ?
Can't afford taxes
opinions about the transporta on system and, especially
Can't afford NOT to improve transportation
about the Department of Transporta on.
2015
45
47
Respondents were asked to grade the state transporta on
system. It received a solid C average, essen ally unchanged
since 2013. Only 4% gave the system and A grade. Every2013
54
40
one else was asked what prevented them from giving the
system a higher grade. Equivalent propor ons chose 3 of the
4 reasons oered:
TAXES FOR TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS
Waste and mismanagement by the Department of TransporFAVOR
ACCEPT
OPPOSE
UNACCEPTABLE
ta on (28%);
Carbon Tax 45
70 28 18
The popula on is growing faster than the transporta on
system can keep up (27%);
County Car
25
53
44 25
Tabs
Too much transporta on money is spent on the wrong projects (26%).
Miles
16 41
33
55
Travelled
The reason least likely to be chosen is the one most cited by
transporta on experts: Gas taxes no longer generate
Gas Tax
19 37
37
62
enough money to pay for transporta on needs (14%).
THE ELWAY POLL 2014. Excerpts may be quoted with attribution.

THE ELWAY POLL

8 JAN 15

Taken together, 54% of respondent blamed factors internal to the DOT (waste and mismanagement
plus wrong priori es), while 41% cited the external factors of popula on growth and diminishing revenue.
Voters who cited internal management issues were far less open to new transporta on taxes than were
those who cited external factors for their grade of the system. Management cri cs were
Nearly twice as likely to find a gas tax increase unacceptable (48% vs.25%);
Twice as likely to find a car tab increase unacceptable (32% vs. 16%); and
Significantly more likely to oppose a miles travelled tax (63% vs. 50%).
A majority of those who faulted DOT management were favorably inclined toward a carbon tax on pollu on industries (61%), but less so than those who cited external reasons for the systems grade (83%).
There was a strong par san nge to these findings, which will make agreeing on any of them dicult in
legislature where the two houses are controlled by opposing par es:
55% of Democrats said a gas tax increase was at least acceptable; 80% of Republicans were opposed;
63% of Democrats could accept an increase in car tabs; 64% of Republicans were opposed;
62% of Democrats favored outright a carbon tax on industry (another 25% found it acceptable); 57% of
Republicans were opposed.
50% could accept a miles-travelled tax; 72% of Republicans were opposed, including 47% who called it
unacceptable.

WHAT ABOUT THIS CARBON TAX?

The governors proposed carbon tax was included twice
in this survey: once as part of the governors budget proposal (discussed in 1/6/14 report); the second me as a transporta on funding source. Both mes the tax was one of a
list of proposed taxes. The overall results were similar both
mes: 7 in 10 responded favorably.
The carbon tax was described much as press reports
described it in summaries of the Governors budget:
Ins tute a new carbon tax on industries that release the
most pollutants into the air. 51% favored; 20% said it was
acceptable; 10% opposed; 18% said unacceptable.
Ins tute that new carbon tax we talked about earlier,
on industries that release pollutants into the air. 45% favored; 25% acceptable; 10% opposed; 18% unacceptable.
Obviously, this is a general descrip on of a complex proposal. But given that this is likely the first me most of
these voters had heard of it, and given that this is a common descrip on in the media, it represents a fair assessment of ini al pubic response to the idea.
Opinion measurement on a new proposal is typically
unstable because the public has not thought the issue
through. In this early stage, changes in ques on wording
can have a significant impact on the poll answer. Even here,
there was a 6-point drop in the propor on favoring the carbon tax when it was changed from releasing the most pollutants into the air to just releasing pollutants into the air.
Later, when the public has heard more of the pro and
con arguments and has come to a more considered opinion, slight changes in ques on wording have less impact on
the answer.

GRADING THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

DEC '14
GPA= 2.02

4 24
"A"

MAR '13
GPA= 1.98

48
"B"

28

"C"

16 81
"D"

38

"F"

17 7

WHAT PREVENTS A HIGHER GRADE

Waste &
Mismanagement

28
27

Population Growth

26

Wrong Priorities

14

Gas Tax Not Enough

No Opin

WHY NOT HIGHER GRADE, BY GRADE GIVEN

55

Waste & Mismanagement

Population growth
Wrong projects
Gas tax not keeping up

24

34

32

31
26

25

29

24
20

14

"B"

14

"C"

18

16
11

"D"

"F"

THE ELWAY POLL

Sample Profile
502 registered voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington
state, were interviewed Dec. 27-30, 2014 by live, professional interviewers. 19% of the
interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is 4.5% at the
95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100
times, the results would be within 4.5% of the results reported here at least 95 times.

REGION
King County ........................................ 31%
Pierce + Kitsap .................................... 15%
North Sound (Snohomish to Whatcom) ........ 16%
Western Washington (Clallam to Clark) .... 18%
Eastern Washington............................ 20%
GENDER
Male .................................................... 48%
Female ................................................ 52%
AGE
18-35 ..................................................... 7%
36-50 ................................................... 23%
51-64 ................................................... 42%
65+ ...................................................... 26%
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat ............................................ 32%
Republican ......................................... 20%
Independent ........................................ 47%
EDUCATION
High School......................................... 17%
Some College ..................................... 24%
College Graduate ................................ 39%
Post Graduate ..................................... 20%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
<$50,000 ............................................. 22%
$50 - 74,000 ........................................ 23%
$75 - 99,000 ........................................ 20%
$100,000+ ........................................... 19%
No Answer .......................................... 17%

The Elway Poll

The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of public
opinion in Washington and the Northwest.

PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS:

Each quarter, space is reserved in

the questionnaire to allow for proprietary questions. The fee for
proprietary questions is $1000 per question. You will receive
the results of your question(s) with full crosstabulations within
three days after the interviews are completed.

CROSSTABS: A full set of cross-tabulation tables is available for

$100.

The Elway Poll

7 03 5 P a l at i n e N .
Seattle, WA 98103
206/264-1500 FAX: 264-0301
epoll@elwayresearch.com

8 JAN 15

If other factors are included (not just wording

changes) dierent results can be expected. Indeed,
other polling suggests that support drops considerably if voters think they will be paying the tax, either
directly or indirectly, not just pollu ng industries.
For carbon tax proponents, 70% posi ve response is a good place to start. But the public debate
over this tax has not really begun. The early rounds
will be about how the tax is described.

QUESTION WORDING

These next questions are about transportation. The state transportation system
includes roads, bridges, railways, ferries and barges all the ways to move people
and freight. Overall, how would you rate Washington States current transportation
system? Using the letter grades again, would you say: "F" for failing; "D" for
unsatisfactory; "C" for satisfactory; "B" for good; "A" for excellent"
IF NOT 4 ("A"): In your opinion, which of these factors contributes most to keeping the transportation system from getting a higher grade:
1) Gas taxes no longer generate enough money to pay for transportation needs
2) Waste and mismanagement by the Department of Transportation
3) The population is growing faster than the transportation system can keep up
4) Too much transportation money is spent on the wrong projects
The governor has proposed a package of transportation improvements that includes: Finishing the 520 bridge in Seattle, widening 405 between Bellevue and
Renton, improving the Highway 395 North Spokane corridor, Highway 167 from
Puyallup to the Port of Tacoma, I-90 at Snoqualmie Pass and others.
Of course, transportation projects are expensive and take a long time to complete.
So one question is always how to pay for them. First, which of these statements
comes closest to your opinion:
1) We cannot afford to raise taxes for transportation improvements at this time.
2) We cannot afford not to improve the transportation system, so taxes will have to
be raised.
The next questions are about paying for transportation improvements. As I read
each suggestion, tell me whether you: 1) Favor that proposal, 2) think it could be
an Acceptable part of a solution, 3) are inclined to Oppose, or 4) find it Unacceptable. Again, I realize you dont have all the details, but how are you inclined as
things stand today? The first one is
1) Increase the gasoline tax
2) Allow counties to increase the car tab tax to pay for local roads and bridges
3) Institute a new tax, based on miles travelled, and reduce the tax on gasoline
4) Institute that new carbon tax we talked about earlier, on industries that release
pollutants into the air