A Ground Invasion of the Capital is

Imminent
All-out war is coming to Libya, as rebel militias and a
government-in-hiding begin a battle for control of the country.

BY BEL TREW-DECEMBER 29, 2014

TRIPOLI, Libya Zeina, 27, was hanging out her washing

when the first Grad rocket smashed into a neighbors house at the
end of her dusty street. The deafening boom was followed by the
telltale buzz of more incoming rockets. Libyas civil war had landed
on her doorstep.

It started as a normal day then we heard the sound of shelling and

rockets, said the young mother. Without warning, they hit our houses. We
fled with just the clothes we were wearing.

Zeina is now crammed together with seven other people in a cinderblock

outhouse that is part of Tripolis zoo. They are just a handful of the more
than 400,000 people who are currently displaced inside Libya, which is
witnessing its worst crisis since the 2011 NATO-backed revolt that toppled
dictator Muammar Qaddafi.

For three years, Libya has been without a functioning government, police
force, or army. The country has been ripped apart by warring fiefdoms of
ex-rebels who helped oust Qaddafi but have since directed politics with AK47s and anti-aircraft guns. This summer, as the battle lines began to
harden, two rival factions have emerged to vie for control of Libya: On one
side is the newly elected parliament that has been banished to the eastern
city of Tobruk supported by the fractured remains of Qaddafi soldiers who
defected during the uprising, as well as regional powers like Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. On the other side is Libya Dawn, a
self-described revolutionary coalition of militiamen and Islamist-leaning
politicians that originated in the Western city of Misrata, allegedly backed
by Turkey and Qatar.

Zeinas hometown of Kikla, which lies less than 100 miles southwest of
Tripoli, is on the front line between the two factions, who are battling for
control of the capital. With two governments and two parliaments, both of
which have a tenuous grip on power and access to funds, there is no one in
authority to ask for help.

Its winter now, and were in a desperate situation, Zeina said. We heard
our houses have been flattened and burned. What we do?

***
Hundreds of miles to the east, smartly dressed lawmakers, Salafi militants,
fighter jet pilots, and tribal leaders sat in a glittering hotel lobby. The
building was under strict military lockdown its long driveway studded
with concrete roadblocks and checkpoints. But inside the hushed halls,
uniformed waiters moved between the groups serving cappuccinos and
croissants. Lavish three-course meals were served in the dining and
conference rooms. Outside, the legislators children forced into exile with
their parents played soccer on the abandoned tennis courts that overlook
the Mediterranean.

This is the exiled parliaments stronghold in Tobruk, over 900 miles to the
east of Tripoli.

When Libyan Dawn staged an armed takeover of the capital this summer, it
forced the House of Representatives, which had been elected in June, to
flee here. Now, loyalists are plotting their return to Tripoli.
Money and war are the main topics of conversation. The countrys oil
authorities and ministries now lie in the hands of Libyan Dawn, which claims
to be the legitimate government. The Islamist coalitions case was bolstered
after a November Supreme Court decision, which it said nullified the House
of Representatives and a constitutional amendment on which the June
elections were based.
The Libyan Central Bank, fighting to maintain its neutrality, has refused to
channel the countrys lucrative oil revenues to either administration since
the court decision. It is only paying expenses for both administrations,
and basic salaries, which ironically includes the militias, who were absorbed
into the interior and defense ministries by the former parliament in 2012.

The decision has rendered the Tobruk parliaments plans and newly drafted
$42 billion budget for the next financial year nothing more than pieces of
paper.

For the politicians and military leaders in Tobruk, that means war.

The easiest solution is a military takeover [of Tripoli], its the only way to
move forward from this ridiculous stalemate, said one senior lawmaker,
dressed in a crisp suit. We are trying to build a new central bank and
premises for different ministries, but this is temporary until we take back
Tripoli.

The United Nations was supposed to have chaired a fresh round of peace
talks between the warring factions this month. But so far they have been
unable to set a date, let alone an agenda to resolve the crisis.

Tobruks military forces, meanwhile, dont seem to be in the mood for

talking. Gen. Khalifa Haftar, a formerly rogue military leader who embarked
on a self-styled War on Terror against Islamists earlier this year, is at the
helm of the recently rebranded Libyan National Army the remnants of
the Qaddafi-era armed forces that defected during the revolution. And he
seems to believe the wind is at his back.

A ground invasion of the capital is imminent, Haftar told me from his

sprawling military base in the countryside outside Merj, a town that lies
roughly an hour-long helicopter ride west of Tobruk.

Haftar, 71, has seen his fortunes improve dramatically in recent months. He
was declared an outlaw by the authorities after unsuccessfully attempting
to overthrow the previous Islamist-dominated parliament in February, and
was only recently reinstated by the House of Representatives, which lacked
a military force of its own to wrest control back from the militias. Haftar
quickly changed that: He absorbed pro-government Western militias into his
army, and is currently encircling the capital and fighting Libya Dawn
militiamen in Kikla.

Haftars first major offensive was in the eastern city of Benghazi, where his
troops have gained serious ground after six months of battling Libyan
Dawn-allied eastern militias and jihadis including the U.N.-designated
terror group Ansar al-Sharia. Haftar claims his forces have secured around
95 percent of the city.

Seeking to build on his momentum, Haftar then turned west. In November,

he sent his battered MiG fighter jets to Tripoli to bomb Libyan Dawn
positions and weapons depots. This month, the general pushed further
West, striking targets on the border with Tunisia, which briefly closed the
largest border crossing, Ras Jedir. This week, his forces hit the western city
of Misrata, the hometown of most of the Libya Dawn leadership.

We cannot continue with two governments, two parliaments, so Libyan

Dawn should end or we are going to arrest them all, he said, promising
further airstrikes in the western city of Misrata, the hometown of most of
the Libya Dawn leadership.

Haftars men told me that a large multi-million dollar arms deal with an
Eastern European country, which would see the acquisition of updated
fighter jets, helicopters, and heavy weaponry will be the nail in the coffin of
their enemies. The Tobruk authorities are footing the bill, and are just
waiting for delivery.

Tobruk Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni, a former military man himself,

echoed Haftars hawkishness.

We are supporting the front line with more jet fighters to break the
deadlock, he told me from his temporary offices in Labraq, a city just west
of Tobruk, consisting of stark, Soviet-style concrete buildings. Citizens of
Tripoli are getting ready now and are waiting for the moment when the
army enters the city.

But there is lingering bad blood between Thinni and his military
commander, which could presage a future conflict. In June, Thinni, who had
been serving as prime minister then too, had been among those in the
previous parliament who blacklisted Haftar. That same month, Haftar said
that he wanted most of Thinnis cabinet jailed. The distrust between the two
men is still palpable, as both claim ownership of the war in the west.
Thinni said he would only come to the negotiating table if Libyan Dawn
accepted the legitimacy of his parliament, dropped its alliance with terror
groups like Ansar al-Sharia, and gave up Tripoli an impossible set of preconditions sure to scupper any U.N.-backed mediation initiative. Libyan
Dawn members who committed crimes should be tried, he added.

Establishing his governments authority over the whole country is going to

take a massive influx of money and Thinni knows it. The prime minister
admitted it was near impossible to run a country without access to the
countrys government buildings and funds. As an interim solution, he
appointed his own heads of the National Oil Corporation, the body solely
response for sale and purchase of oil and gas, and the Libyan Central Bank,
which controls the countrys purse strings. He wants to move their offices
east, to Benghazi and Ras Lanuf, redirecting oil funds and effectively
carving Libya in two.

Its about who is controlling the money. We can change the direction of
flow of oil income into the banks we choose, he said. So Libya Dawn can
just sit in Tripoli and invent their own authorities, but in fact they control
nothing.

***
In Tripoli, Libya Dawns ascendance is visible by simply walking down the
street. The Che Guevara-looking Zintan fighters, who backed the Tobruk
government, were chased out of town, and have been replaced by Misrati
militiamen, who cruise the neighborhoods in pick-up trucks mounted with
anti-aircraft guns. Their trucks scrawled with text reading Correcting the
direction of the February 17 revolution guard the main ministries and
parliament buildings. Graffiti praising Misrata, where Libya Dawn originates,
has been scrawled on Qaddafi-era brigade bases they have commandeered.

The charred apartment blocks near the bombed out airport are a stark
reminder of the summers fierce fighting. Tripoli residents now tentatively
go about their daily business, but activists in the city who have been
outspoken against the militias for years say there has been a spike in
kidnappings against their community since the summer, driving many into
hiding or out of the country.

Prime Minister Omar al-Hassi, a 55-year-old former academic from Benghazi

who was appointed by Libya Dawn, has the same idea as his rivals. He has
moved quickly to seize control of the countrys sole remaining institutions:
He headquartered his administration at the National Oil Corporation, taken
over government buildings and websites, and appointed his own oil
minister.

His forces are also on the offensive against oil sites held by Libya Dawns
rivals. A few months ago, Libya Dawn militiamen seized control of the
lucrative oil fields in the south including El Sharara, Libyas largest
bringing the production to a grinding halt. In early December, they moved
on the eastern oil ports and oil fields currently controlled by forces loyal to
the Tobruk authorities, prompting new clashes with Haftars men. In the last
week, five oil tanks that stored almost a million barrels of oil were set
ablaze.
Hassi also sounded just as uncompromising about his enemies in Tobruk as
they did about him. He described Thinni and Haftar as criminals for ignoring
the court verdict invalidating the House of Representatives, and called on
the international community to boycott the exiled parliament.

Their crimes are huge and they are exacting a collective punishment on us
all, he said. Whoever doesnt listen to the court becomes an outlaw and
should be stopped.

Hassi called for fresh parliamentary elections once the war stops. Until
that day, he argues that his salvation government should rule and preside
over any peace talks. He defended his administrations alliance with Ansar
al-Sharia saying the jihadist group had been misunderstood and actually
represented a simple, beautiful, friendly idea.

Hassi promised his government was all about dialogue, but his
militiamen, embittered by Haftars airstrikes in Tripoli and Benghazi, appear
more determined than ever to fight to the death.
They will keep going until the last man is gunned down, you can forget
about peace deals or negotiations, said the head of one of the largest
Islamist militias operating in Benghazi. We are losing between 20 and 25
men a day, there is no way after such huge losses the men will give up.

While hatred for Haftar unites all the militias under Libya Dawns banner,
wildly differing views of the countrys future could drive them apart in the
future. The coalition includes both liberals and radical Islamists and
already there are signs of discontent simmering beneath the surface among
some on the extremes.

Speaking on the phone from the frontline in Benghazi, one Ansar al-Sharia
fighter said they were not happy with Libya Dawns insistence on pursuing
the trappings of a democratic state. Well be happy if sharia law is properly
implemented but we wont settle for less, he said tersely.
***
Back in the cramped cinderblock outhouse that Zeina calls home, the young
mother and her friends are stockpiling blankets in preparation for winter.
They count themselves lucky, because they have access to running water.
Next door, a family hastily constructs their own makeshift concrete block
home in the dusty street. Others have been forced to make do living in
parks and schools.

But there are many others that have fared far worse. Libya Body Count, a
local independent monitoring organization, reports that over 2,700 people
have been killed this year alone. As battles across the country intensify,
that number goes up every day. Hundreds of thousands of civilians who
have fled the war are now struggling to stay alive as the temperatures drop
and aid workers are unable to provide urgently needed medical care, food,
and shelter. Meanwhile the economy is in tatters Libya relies on oil
revenues, and the fighting at the oil ports has seen production plummet by
60 percent in recent days.

The poorest and most vulnerable, like Zeina, have been hit hardest by the
crisis. And with nobody truly in charge of the country, they have been left to
fend for themselves.

We just want to go home and for this war to stop, Zeina said. We were
promised everything. Its been three years now, and what good have we
seen?

Posted by Thavam