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Volume 5 Issue 2
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Alibaba pre-IPO
coverage
IS FLIPKART OVERVALUED
AT $7 BILLION?
In conversation with
Joel Pannikot
Head, Asia-Pacific Strategy
(Education), Bloomberg
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Editors Note
Today is cruel. Tomorrow is crueller. And the day after tomorrow is
beautiful. Jack Ma on the e-commerce industry that is shaping the
modern world of both B2B and B2C businesses. The world is not only
getting addicted to transact sitting comfortably in their homes but also
reaping the benefits of the ongoing competition in ecommerce industry
through cheaper price and faster delivery.This edition of In-Fin-Nitie
brings forward the story of Alibaba and Flipkart and talks about the present
scenario in Ecommerce Industry. In our special column, we bring to you in
this edition, a candid interview with Joel Pannikot, Head of Asia-Pacific
Strategy (Education) Bloomberg.
In our quest to bring to our readers all the latest happenings in and around
the financial world, we dive in to other key talking points like establishment
of BRICS bank which is in an indicator of shift in world power towards
Asian countries, fate of new banking licences in India, analysis of power
sector in India and many more.
We are very fortunate to get an overwhelming response from the students
of top B-schools in the country in terms of wonderful articles which
they wrote taking time out of their busy schedule. We extend our sincere
gratitude to all those authors who made this magazine a success. In our
endeavour towards continuous improvement we invite feedback and
criticism at
street.nitie@gmail.com .
CONTENT
In-Fin-Nitie
VOLUME 5 ISSUE 2
Street Wall
12
14
16
23
Fin-Q-Nitie
27
Final Word
Design
The New Development Bank which is primarily
instituted with the objective of lending for infrastructure
projects, started with an initial capital of $50 billion
which can rise to $100 billion divided equally among
the five countries. To avoid one country having
greater influence over the bank, it will be based out of
Shanghai, and India will preside over its operations
for the first 6 years followed by five-year terms for
Brazil and subsequently for Russia and the first board
chair will be from Brazil. An African Regional Centre
will also be set up in South Africa. Also a $100 billion
currency reserve pool will be setup to help countries
counter short-term liquidity pressures. China will
make the largest contribution - $41 billion- in this
pool followed by India, Brazil, Russia - $18 billion
each- and South Africa contributing the remaining $5
billion.There were also few points of contention like
Chinas argument that of giving greater control to the
members for greater contribution of capital. This point
was severely refuted by India and Brazil. Only after
intense negotiations, that delayed this announcement dollar reserves for the benefit of India and the other
for some years, did China agree for an equal share of member countries is indeed a great positive outcome.
control over the bank.
However, this should not happen at the expense of
exposing Indias sensitive sectors to Chinese players.
Consequences for India
For instance, Anil Ambanis
India, a country which is
Reliance
Communications
currently inclined on infusing
securing
a
large
loan
advance from
massive financial inputs into
a Chinese Bank could have some
its infrastructure development,
strings attached, given that in the
looks upon BRICS bank as the
past, Indian intelligence agencies
bridging factor. IMF and the
have given warnings about the entry
World Bank, which were the
of Chinese players into the critical
conventional institutions that
Indian digital communications
India was always banking upon
sector.
for such funding, have been
accused of being largely partial
to the western world and of
being oblivious to the needs of
the developing nations. Such
a move (establishing the New
Development Bank) can be
viewed by India as an alternative
source of investment where it
can secure funding on the basis
of need, along with the assurance of the Contingency
Reserve Arrangement that in time of crisis can bail
each other out.On a different note having China ,the
2nd largest economy in the world, channelize its vast
5
Roadblocks
The New Development Bank,
whose inception was described as
an unprecedented development in
the developing countries, is not
devoid of its share of problems.
Firstly, the bank which is primarily
instituted to finance infrastructure
projects in the BRICS nations is
being pessimistically viewed as India and Brazils
politically palatable way to tap Chinese cash reserves.
Also, the tussle between India and China over the
location of headquarters, and the one amongst India
PRE IPO
COVeRAGE
By Sunil Ramavarapu & Abhiram TKVR - NMIMS
What is Alibaba?
Jack Ma
Flipkart recently had generated a lot of buzz in the VC circles, and the analysts in
India had different opinions about the valuation of Flipkart after its recent funding.
The Flipkart is valued between US $ 5-7 billion, which means it is valued more than
combined valuation of the 15 listed retail companies in India. If thats something
to be described as staggering, then what one would refer to if a company if it goes for
an IPO will result in a market capitalization of anything ranging between US $ 180220 billion, comparable to the giants like Oracle, Samsung and IBM. Mind boggling?
Yes, thats Alibaba for you. The Baap of Flipkart in every possible way.
8
Alibaba Portfolio
and Eco System
The portfolio of
Alibaba
is
so
complex and diverse
that it is difficult to
find a comparable
company. It is a
mix of marketplace,
search
engine,
10
software Company,
bank,
mobile
services company,
e-learning,
microblogging,
video streaming
and much more.
Alibaba
Financials
Based on the
filings of Alibaba
in Form-A1 for
IPO, the financial
projections were
made
by
the
analysts up to
2020. The Figure
3 gives the Alibaba
Financials for the years ending in March during 201320
The revenues are on an increasing trend with a
CAGR of 29%. China Commerce will remain the
largest contributor to the revenues. The company has
remained on a positive operating profit in the period
of the forecast, ending with US $16 billion. The Net
income is increasing in the forecast period US $13.5
billion. The Alibaba should be compared with the likes
of Amazon and e-Bay to understand its true potential.
The revenues of Amazon are way higher than that of
e-Bay and Alibaba. The revenue of Alibaba is less
than that of Amazon and e-Bay because of its different
business model. The revenue generation from
merchants through advertisements and transactions.
However, Alibaba is more profitable than Amazon
and e-Bay. The
reason
being
that the Alibaba
business
model
makes it doesnt
take the ownership
of inventory, stock
in warehouse and
fulfillment of the
orders.
Hence,
Alibaba handles
transactions
two and a half
times
more
than
Amazon.
Alibaba also has
an advantage of
having a loyal and
11
Joel Pannikot
About Joel
Tejesh Thota
IMT, Ghaziabad
n 2007, when Flipkart was founded, online retail sector in India was in its infancy. Internet was not an available
resource for a common man at that time. Even International players like Amazon and ebay didnt enter the Indian market.
At the same time, Flipkart entered the market and played a key role in the growth of online retail market in India, as India
has become one of the largest online markets in the world. Flipkart also adapted to the Indian conditions by introducing
cash on delivery, knowing there is very less usage of credit cards and online payments in India at that time.
Since 2007, Online retail market in India had a compounded growth rate of 56% every year and Flipkart outperformed this
rate every year. As of 2014,In India, online retail is just 0.5% of overall retail and 7.9% of overall organized retail sector.
This also indicates that online retail has much growth potential in India.
In recent years, mobile commerce is playing an important role in online retail industry in addition to social networks. New
sites are exploding every day and the mobile commerce plays an important role in expanding the market and it overcomes
the internet connectivity issues in towns and villages.
With all these amazing prospectus of Flipkart and Indian online retailing,
Lets look into the fundamentals of Flipkart that play an important role in its valuation.
16
Revenue Growth
Re-investment
share and also 20% of its revenues from outside
India (as Flipkarts founders aspire to take the firm
global). Analysts project that the Indian online retail
market will cross $100 bn by 2025. According to the
above estimates, revenues of Flipkart is projected to
be at $50 bn by 2025, which are just 35% lower than
that of Amazons 2013 revenues and 20% below the
Googles revenues in 2013 and 4.6 times greater than
Facebooks 2013 revenues.
Operating margin
revenues in the future. The expected revenue growth
at Flipkart will be the composite effect of factors like
expected growth rate in Indian online retail business
and expected market share of Flipkart in the future. As,
Flipkart is keen
in making its
presence across
the countries, it
is expected that
its revenue is not
only dependent
on just Indian
online
retail
market
but
also the global
market.
At
present Flipkart
has the market
share of nearly
32% in the Indian
online
retail
market and is
assumed to grow
to 40% within 10
years . Therefore
Flipkart will have
40% of Indian
online
market
18
Cost of Capital
19
The Valuation
Empowering the
power sector
the e commerce business. It is also important to note
that it is one of those dotcom companies survived
the dotcom bubble burst. Thus Amazon has not only
gained high market share but also perfect monopoly
in the online retail business.
Flipkart, though it lead other firms in terms of market
share in India at present, it definitely lacks the
monopoly that Amazon and Alibaba have. Flipkart will
face problem in gaining such a huge market share in
India in future,
mainly due to
new entrants and
strong existing
players
like
Snapdeal
and
Amazon
who
already
have
considerable
market
share
and are going
good in terms
of both revenues
and
strategic
investments. In
2007, Flipkart
was started with
the same idea
and
business
model
of
Amazon
but
made changes
according
to
Indian market.
After few years,
Snapdeal also worked with the similar model and was
successful in gaining the market share. Therefore it is
the adaption to the market that is gaining market share
in India. So, there is lot of chance for firms with deep
pockets like Amazon to snatch away market share
22
Abhirup Chakraborti
Harshit Kothari
SIIB
Overview
Generation Issue
Till date coal is the largest commercial source of
primary energy. 74% of the coal is bought by the
power sector making it the largest buyer of coal. But
with deteriorating coal mining India has to import
coal from other countries. Apart from buying the
coal at higher prices it is also making us dependent
on other countries for our basic needs. The exporter
country are taking advantage of this situation and
enacting laws so as to increase the prices. This can
be clearly seen from the import from Indonesia and
Australia where due to policy change we ended up
paying higher price. This dismal nature of the mining
industry also discourages the banks to provide loans.
Currently bank finances only 1.25% of the total
credit to the mining industry. The FDI is mining also
paints a very depressing figure. Even with 100% FDI
in mining only 0.52% FDI inflow is directed to the
mining sector.
Diesel and petrol, which are used
in some plants to generate electricity, are also not
providing ample support to the power industry. 206.8
MT exploration was planned in the 11th Five year
plan. Out of this 176.9 MT was achieved. This led to
additional import burden of $20 Bn. After the NELP
which opened up the upstream exploration only $2.5
Bn was the total FDI inflow.
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