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ANALISIS DE CONSISTENCIA DE PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL

EVALUACION DE LA ESTACION ANTA

CORRECCION DE LA ESTACIN ANTA

ANALISIS DE DOBLE MASA


Estacin

Perayoc

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975

837.45
1538.70
2217.55
2906.78
3567.93
4354.83
5000.73
5588.47
6468.17
7320.27
8092.97

1976

869.30
1815.90
2656.40
3629.20
4451.30
5371.00
6200.70
7078.70
8189.70
9244.00
10261.90

Paruro

Anta

Corpac

Cay Cay

Pisac

Promedio

712.70
1440.40
2730.40
4438.70
6205.70
6972.10
7636.00
8325.40
9348.70
10335.50
11297.90

Nro. Datos

806.48
1598.33
2534.78
3658.23
4741.64
5565.98
6279.14
6997.52
8002.19
8966.59
9884.26

8802.27

10986.60

12015.80

10601.56

1977

9648.47

11852.10

12841.30

11447.29

1978
1979
1980

10398.07
11247.57
11868.47

12948.80
13817.96
14720.42

13754.00
14535.05
15245.86

12366.96
13200.19
13944.92

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

12762.87
13778.17
14431.37
15361.87
16244.57
16981.77
17908.97
18847.17
19739.67
20698.17
21640.67
22383.47
23339.37
24359.67
24969.87

15690.00
16593.10
16948.20
17816.20
18684.20
19552.20
20445.20
21476.30
22362.80
23327.73
24195.73
24723.93
25502.20
26207.20
26908.18

15989.06
16429.97
17322.99
18216.00
19109.01
19965.13
20962.43
21526.38
22387.51
23280.52
24173.54
25066.55
26044.35
27069.35
27701.35

14813.98
15600.41
16234.19
17131.36
18012.59
18833.03
19772.20
20616.62
21496.66
22435.47
23336.65
24057.98
24961.97
25878.74
26526.47

1996
1997
1998

25634.47
26473.27
27121.37

27776.18
28644.18
29512.18

28608.15
29611.65
30362.46

27339.60
28243.03
28998.67

Primer periodo
Segundo periodo

1965-1991
1992-1998

27
7

Desviacin est. Varianza

Media
729.88
1212.54

101.53
528.64

10307.86
279457.20

x`t = (xt-x2)*S1(x)/S2(x)+x1
x`t

Ao
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05

624.97
839.16
884.21
677.79
752.25
707.56
623.25

Nro. Datos
Enero
Febrero Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto Septiembre
Octubre NoviembreDiciembreTotal
122.50 127.57
38.27
17.63
0.00
15.76
0.00
6.63
16.55
48.48
90.44 141.15
68.35 201.93
50.12
16.91
3.20
0.00
0.00
10.74
27.51
90.63 102.87 266.89
257.88 166.31 174.90
21.53
14.25
0.00
0.00
0.13
17.32
38.16
81.58 112.14
140.20
34.20 161.94
14.33
1.30
3.74
0.43
0.00
16.42
11.23
68.12 225.88
234.62 203.49
69.51
16.53
2.72
0.34
0.11
7.53
10.64
24.91
49.41 132.45
103.01
81.90 102.56
16.72
5.68
0.00
0.00
10.00
4.58
43.56 106.69 232.86
155.22 121.94 124.78
24.37
0.00
3.22
0.00
0.28
11.19
61.63
51.96
68.65

624.97
839.16
884.21
677.79
752.25
707.56
623.25

Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios


Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 104.56
Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2

Sp = 246.52

Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

Tc = -4.62

Primer periodo
1965-1991
Segundo periodo
1992-1998
CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05

Media

27
7

Desviacin est.
Varianza
729.88
729.88

101.53
101.53

10307.86
10307.86

Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios


Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 43.06
Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2

Sp = 101.53

Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

Tc = 0.00

G.L. = n1+n2-2
G.L. = n1+n2-2

G.L.= 32

G.L.= 32
Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05

Tt = 1.693
Tt = 1.693
Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt > Tc (95%) entonces x1 = x2

Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt < Tc (95%) entonces x1 <> x2

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional
Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05
Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

ANALISIS DE DOBLE MASA ENTRE EL PROMEDIO ACUMULADO DE 3 ESTACIONES


VERSUS CADA UNA DE ELLAS

30000

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional
Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

35000

Valor acumulado de cada estacin

BONDAD DE LA INFORMACION CORREGIDA DE ANTA

Como el periodo a corregir es el segundo, la frmula a utilizar es:


Acomayo

Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

Fc = 27.11

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Fc = 1.00

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

G.L.N. = 26
G.L.D. = 6

Ft = 3.83
Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc > Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) <> S2(x)

G.L.N. = 26
G.L.D. = 6

Ft = 3.83
Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc < Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) = S2(x)

25000

EVALUACION DE LA ESTACION PARURO

CORRECCION DE LA ESTACIN PARURO

Perayoc

BONDAD DE LA INFORMACION CORREGIDA DE PARURO

Como el periodo a corregir es el primero, la frmula a utilizar es:

20000

Kayra

Primer periodo
Segundo periodo

15000

Paruro

1965-1969
1970-1998

Nro. Datos Media


Desviacin est. Varianza
5
1241.14
509.91
260005.99
29
832.99
145.30
21113.08

x`t = (xt-x1)*S2(x)/S1(x)+x2
x`t

Ao
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05

10000

682.41
686.68
846.91
966.11
982.84

Nro. Datos
Enero
Febrero Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto Septiembre
Octubre NoviembreDiciembreTotal
115.09 114.71 164.79
52.28
1.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
19.15
23.27
30.93 160.28
67.66 197.50
91.44
12.46
21.42
0.00
0.00
3.68
37.46
61.34 111.82
81.91
71.17 267.80 226.24
14.57
1.97
0.00
0.00
12.01
5.38
51.14
30.53 166.10
279.09 292.05 178.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.16
2.26
14.36
26.41 107.51
54.18
293.13 246.79 253.25
9.07
0.00
1.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.67
48.67 124.48

Primer periodo
Segundo periodo
682.41
686.68
846.91
966.11
982.84

1965-1969
1970-1998

Media

5
29

832.99
832.99

Desviacin est.
Varianza
145.30
21113.08
145.30
21113.08

Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05

5000

5000

10000

15000

20000

Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios


Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 109.33

Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios


Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 70.36

Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2

Sp = 225.78

Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2

Tc = 3.73

Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

25000

Sp = 145.30

Valor promedio acumulado de 3 estaciones


35000.00

Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

30000.00

G.L. = n1+n2-2

25000.00

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05

ANALISIS DE DOBLE MASA DE LA ESTACION VERSUS LAS DEMAS ESTACIONES

20000.00

Valor acumulado de las dems estaciones

Tc = 0.00

G.L. = n1+n2-2

G.L.= 32

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05
Tt = 1.693

Perayoc

15000.00

35000

G.L.= 32

Tt = 1.693

Acomayo
Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt < Tc
(95%) entonces x1 <> x2
Paruro

Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt > Tc (95%) entonces x1 = x2

CONSISTENCIA
EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR
40
Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional

10000.00
30000

5000.00
25000

0.00

10
Perayoc

20000

20

Paruro
Anta

15000

Corpac
10000

30

Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05

Cay Cay

Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

Pisac

Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

Fc = 12.31

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Fc = 1.00

5000

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

0
0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

G.L.N. = 4
G.L.D. = 28

G.L.N. = 4
G.L.D. = 28

Valor acumulado de la estacin Kayra


Ft = 2.72

Ft = 2.72

Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc > Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) <> S2(x)

Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc < Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) = S2(x)

ANALISIS DE DOBLE MASA DE LA ESTACION PERAYOC VERSUS LAS DEMAS


ESTACIONES
EVALUACION DE LA ESTACION CORPAC

CORRECCION DE LA ESTACIN CORPAC

VALORES ACUMULADOS DE LAS DEMAS


ESTACIONES

35000.00

Como el periodo a corregir es el segundo, la frmula a utilizar es:

30000.00

Primer periodo
Segundo periodo

25000.00

1965-1986
1987-1998

Nro. Datos Media


Desviacin est. Varianza
22.00
705.23
166.43
27698.44
12.00
710.68
91.98
8460.32

x`t = (xt-x2)*S1(x)/S2(x)+x1

20000.00

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05

Anta

Corpac

15000.00

Cay Cay

Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios


Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 52.11

Pisac

10000.00
5000.00

Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

25000.00

Sp = 145.21

Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

30000.00

VALORES ACUMULADOS DE LA ESTACION PERAYOC

x`t

Ao

Acomayo
Paruro

0.00
0.00

BONDAD DE LA INFORMACION CORREGIDA DE CORPAC

470.05
629.27
488.02
769.50
601.09
827.95
899.24
1055.03
626.05
698.85
698.85
698.85

Enero
Febrero Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto Septiembre
Octubre NoviembreDiciembreTotal
159.87
63.78
55.93
16.19
1.86
3.40
10.28
0.00
13.84
20.40
55.45
69.05
470.05
123.84
67.85 179.17
44.23
6.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.20
13.83
71.33
95.61
629.27
118.49
66.43 105.43
36.22
1.90
14.13
0.00
8.26
13.39
45.53
48.58
29.66
488.02
163.86
92.60
70.64 102.92
7.32
28.77
0.00
9.49
24.34 100.85
92.91
75.80
769.50
70.87 128.39
80.07
42.15
5.06
5.71
2.39
0.00
17.97
43.81
92.68 112.00
601.09
81.89 129.00
80.83
34.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.27
34.03
89.76 149.74 212.38
827.95
281.46
86.64 103.90
2.86
15.94
0.00
0.00
6.16
7.15
84.00 113.24 197.90
899.24
231.31 237.85 217.07
65.94
11.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.00
45.05
83.91 148.22
1055.03
136.96
83.83 101.87
41.15
6.50
3.01
3.54
7.56
18.33
45.65
72.90 104.77
626.05
149.03 123.17 107.24
43.32
6.84
3.17
3.73
7.96
19.29
48.06
76.74 110.30
698.85
149.03 123.17 107.24
43.32
6.84
3.17
3.73
7.96
19.29
48.06
76.74 110.30
698.85
149.03 123.17 107.24
43.32
6.84
3.17
3.73
7.96
19.29
48.06
76.74 110.30
698.85

1965-1986
1987-1998

G.L.= 32

Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios


Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 59.73
Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2

G.L.= 32

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05
Tt = 1.693

869.30
1815.90
2656.40
3629.20
4451.30
5371.00
6200.70
7078.70
8189.70
9244.00

712.70
1440.40
2730.40
4438.70
6205.70
6972.10
7636.00
8325.40
9348.70
10335.50

806.48
1598.33
2534.78
3658.23
4741.64
5565.98
6279.14
6997.52
8002.19
8966.59

8092.97
8802.27
9648.47
10398.07
11247.57
11868.47
12762.87
13778.17
14431.37
15361.87
16244.57
16981.77
17908.97
18847.17
19739.67
20698.17
21640.67
22383.47
23339.37
24359.67
24969.87
25634.47
26473.27
27121.37

10261.90
10986.60
11852.10
12948.80
13817.96
14720.42
15690.00
16593.10
16948.20
17816.20
18684.20
19552.20
20445.20
21476.30
22362.80
23327.73
24195.73
24723.93
25502.20
26207.20
26908.18
27776.18
28644.18
29512.18

11297.90
12015.80
12841.30
13754.00
14535.05
15245.86
15989.06
16429.97
17322.99
18216.00
19109.01
19965.13
20962.43
21526.38
22387.51
23280.52
24173.54
25066.55
26044.35
27069.35
27701.35
28608.15
29611.65
30362.46

9884.26
10601.56
11447.29
12366.96
13200.19
13944.92
14813.98
15600.41
16234.19
17131.36
18012.59
18833.03
19772.20
20616.62
21496.66
22435.47
23336.65
24057.98
24961.97
25878.74
26526.47
27339.60
28243.03
28998.67

Tt = 1.693

Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt > Tc (95%) entonces x1 = x2

Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt > Tc (95%) entonces x1 = x2

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional

Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05

35000.00

Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

30000.00

Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

25000.00

Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

Fc = 3.27

G.L.N. = 21
G.L.D. = 11

20000.00

Ft = 2.64
15000.00

Sp = 166.43

Tc = 0.00

G.L. = n1+n2-2

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05

837.45
1538.70
2217.55
2906.78
3567.93
4354.83
5000.73
5588.47
6468.17
7320.27

Nro. Datos
Media
Desviacin est.
Varianza
22.00
705.23
166.43
27698.44
12.00
705.23
166.43
27698.44

Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05

Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

Tc = -0.11

G.L. = n1+n2-2

Primer periodo
Segundo periodo

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Series1

G.L.N. = 21
G.L.D. = 11
Ft = 2.64

Series2
Series3

Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc > Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) <> S2(x)

Fc = 1.00

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc < Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) = S2(x)

Series4

10000.00
EVALUACION DE LA ESTACION PISAC

CORRECCION DE LA ESTACIN PISAC

BONDAD DE LA INFORMACION CORREGIDA DE PISAC

5000.00

Como el periodo a corregir es el segundo, la frmula a utilizar es:


Nro. Datos

0.00
1

Media

Desviacin est.

612.57
216.91
10 11 12 13 14 15Primer
16 periodo
17 18 19 20 21 1965-1986
22 23 24 25 26 22
27 28 29
30 31 32 33
34
Segundo periodo
1987-1998
12
505.79
103.64
CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05

Varianza
47048.21
10741.85

x`t = (xt-x2)*S1(x)/S2(x)+x1

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios


Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 66.72
Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2

Sp = 185.92

Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

Tc = 1.60

G.L. = n1+n2-2

x`t

Ao

608.26
714.72
480.95
677.26
568.01
234.21
721.83
1113.82
353.08
621.69
696.72
560.27

Nro. Datos
Enero
Febrero Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto Septiembre
Octubre NoviembreDiciembreTotal
333.63
55.42
29.70
16.06
0.00
17.63
10.99
8.66
18.67
9.90
65.69
41.90
608.26
122.94 128.36 246.66
67.53
2.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.96
15.46
17.66 110.57
714.72
126.29 102.94 120.97
28.13
7.60
0.00
3.26
9.99
7.82
22.26
22.26
29.43
480.95
96.79
57.54
25.62 104.23
7.82
48.46
0.00
3.79
10.60
55.65 121.65 145.12
677.26
89.33 119.35
75.62
36.81
13.48
9.38
0.00
2.34
2.34
59.44
82.89
77.02
568.01
58.37
32.72
22.84
16.29
0.00
17.30
0.00
9.58
2.88
16.14
40.36
17.73
234.21
231.43
98.18
16.04
49.42
10.61
5.43
10.61
18.11
3.88
23.54 112.54 142.04
721.83
249.28 186.81 226.56
89.37
7.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
18.53
78.61
19.73 237.02
1113.82
91.27
73.52
73.98
6.66
3.88
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.28
22.38
16.83
53.27
353.08
143.31
84.45
54.11
84.45
14.75
0.00
0.00
26.32
11.33
63.98
60.08
78.91
621.69
105.53 127.48 124.54
4.21
3.70
0.00
0.00
27.18
23.10
17.23 138.96 124.80
696.72
147.18 115.01
44.51
25.17
4.89
3.50
0.00
1.17
15.73
74.34
64.32
64.44
560.27

Primer periodo
1965-1986
Segundo periodo
1987-1998
CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05

Desviacin est.
Varianza
612.57
612.57

216.91
216.91

47048.21
47048.21

Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios


Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 77.84
Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2

Sp = 216.91

Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

G.L.= 32

Tc = 0.00

G.L. = n1+n2-2

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05

G.L.= 32

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05
Tt = 1.693

Tt = 1.693

Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt > Tc (95%) entonces x1 = x2

Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt > Tc (95%) entonces x1 = x2

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional
Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional
Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05

Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

Media

22
12

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

Fc = 4.38

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

G.L.N. = 21
G.L.D. = 11

Ft = 2.64
Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc > Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) <> S2(x)

Fc = 1.00

G.L.N. = 21
G.L.D. = 11

Ft = 2.64
Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc < Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) = S2(x)

EVALUACION DE LA ESTACION CAY CAY

CORRECCION DE LA ESTACIN CAY CAY

BONDAD DE LA INFORMACION CORREGIDA DE CAY CAY

Como el periodo a corregir es el primero, la frmula a utilizar es:

Primer periodo
Segundo periodo

1965-1975
1976-1998

Nro. Datos Media


Desviacin est. Varianza
11
378.35
124.46
15491.07
23
306.98
80.69
6511.16

Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05
Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios
Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 35.39
Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2
Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

Sp = 96.53

Tc = 2.02

G.L. = n1+n2-2

G.L.= 32

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05

x`t = (xt-x1)*S2(x)/S1(x)+x2
x`t

Ao
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975

394.21
373.53
256.12
270.77
232.97
246.65
270.32
188.76
356.15
333.27
454.05

Enero
Febrero Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto Septiembre
Octubre NoviembreDiciembreTotal
49.57
43.81
61.41
53.88
8.45
0.00
3.46
0.31
41.58
15.76
29.90
86.08
55.76
74.08
88.76
16.39
21.82
0.93
0.00
2.33
4.12
14.60
57.23
37.51
39.63
88.82
34.93
18.19
3.84
0.00
3.25
7.09
9.91
9.22
5.64
35.61
42.74
79.09
38.29
6.80
2.52
2.35
6.13
5.96
9.74
6.38
41.73
29.05
50.70
41.09
29.54
4.14
0.18
0.62
0.00
0.88
5.20
17.99
39.06
43.56
51.79
23.77
37.78
21.53
4.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.45
21.61
6.92
73.14
86.77 103.74
30.07
15.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.36
31.08
27.54
21.28
20.71
7.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.05
0.00
0.00
18.97
62.89
53.48
43.99
53.87
68.53
20.47
2.04
4.63
8.86
11.37
12.23
21.80
54.89
55.69
94.20
72.08
35.72
3.66
0.00
0.00
15.83
0.00
8.04
11.38
36.68
90.55
78.33 116.36
15.31
18.76
2.10
0.00
4.73
18.68
8.93
15.76
84.55

Primer periodo
Segundo periodo
394.21
373.53
256.12
270.77
232.97
246.65
270.32
188.76
356.15
333.27
454.05

1965-1975
1976-1998

Nro. Datos
Media
Desviacin est.
Varianza
11
306.98
80.69
6511.16
23
306.98
80.69
6511.16

Hiptesis
Hp: u1 = u2 Media poblacional
Ha: u1 <> u2
a = 0.05
Clculo de la desviacin estndar de la diferencia de los promedios
Caso de variaciones iguales
Sd = Sp (1/n1+1/n2)1/2
Sd = 29.58
Sp = {[(n1-1)*S12+(n2-1)*S22]/[n1+n2-2]}1/2
Realizacin de la prueba T
Tc = [(x1-x2)-(u1-u2)]/Sd

G.L.= 32

Tabulando Tt:
a = 0.05
Tt = 1.693

Tt = 1.693

Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt < Tc (95%) entonces x1 <> x2

Criterio de decisin:
Como Tt > Tc (95%) entonces x1 = x2

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


Hiptesis
Hp :s 12 = s 22
Varianza poblacional

Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05
Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

Sp = 80.69

Tc = 0.00

G.L. = n1+n2-2

Ha :s 12 <> s 22
a = 0.05

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

Fc = 2.38

G.L.N. = 10
G.L.D. = 22
Ft = 2.30

Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc > Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) <> S2(x)

Clculo del Fc
Fc = [S12(x)]/[S22(x)]
Fc = [S22(x)]/[S12(x)]

Si S12(x) > S22(x)


Si S22(x) > S12(x)

Tabulacin de Ft
a = 0.05
G.L.N. = n1-1
G.L.D. = n2-1

Fc = 1.00

G.L.N. = 10
G.L.D. = 22
Ft = 2.30

Criterio de decisin:
Como Fc < Ft (95%) entonces S1(x) = S2(x)

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIAS EN LA ESTACION ANTA


TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
130.70
104.00
62.40
111.80
148.40
163.50
159.80
207.20
219.60
146.40
107.60
143.70
118.40
172.20
80.00
98.00
156.50
236.70
165.51
165.51
45.90
101.90
189.70
223.30
191.30
133.40
47.60
122.50
68.35
257.88
140.20
234.62
103.01
155.22

FEB
134.40
115.40
120.60
136.80
104.20
126.40
151.60
52.20
191.20
186.70
198.20
112.10
127.30
93.20
123.00
116.00
101.60
148.80
148.30
148.30
83.00
152.10
83.30
138.50
97.60
64.30
180.70
127.57
201.93
166.31
34.20
203.49
81.90
121.94

MAR
106.50
52.90
164.40
110.00
159.20
95.60
94.60
150.70
107.20
143.00
89.20
138.80
113.30
142.80
140.00
154.60
148.50
131.62
131.62
131.62
57.00
116.30
72.60
254.70
136.40
24.60
123.00
38.27
50.12
174.90
161.94
69.51
102.56
124.78

ABR
71.50
36.00
53.00
31.80
29.80
77.80
36.20
42.60
72.60
60.80
79.50
52.40
51.00
43.50
49.40
15.40
113.50
44.06
44.06
44.06
16.50
44.80
0.00
93.60
30.20
32.00
27.50
17.63
16.91
21.53
14.33
16.53
16.72
24.37

MAY
4.50
22.50
10.40
3.00
0.00
1.40
1.00
0.60
12.00
9.20
13.00
11.00
4.20
13.20
8.80
4.00
5.70
7.26
7.26
7.26
0.00
18.70
0.00
0.00
27.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.20
14.25
1.30
2.72
5.68
0.00

JUN
0.00
4.20
2.10
2.00
3.20
0.00
0.10
0.00
2.80
17.80
1.40
10.40
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
2.00
4.20
4.20
4.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
36.60
21.50
15.76
0.00
0.00
3.74
0.34
0.00
3.22

JUL
1.00
5.01
17.00
35.00
9.40
3.00
0.00
12.20
10.40
0.00
0.00
27.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
5.01
5.01
5.01
0.00
0.00
33.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.43
0.11
0.00
0.00

La media y desviacin estndar de los datos de precipitacin acumulada mensual son:


y=
Sy =
N=

60.824 (Media de los datos)


62.723 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
408 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

204.5
117.924

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t = 12205.597
Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre los datos de precipitacin mensual y el tiempo
R = (t*Tm -t*Tm )/(St*STm )

R=

-0.03148

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:

Tc = -0.634617

AGO
0.00
5.00
12.60
8.40
0.00
0.00
9.80
27.60
8.70
41.20
1.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
6.60
2.20
10.70
7.07
7.07
7.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.40
16.60
0.00
6.63
10.74
0.13
0.00
7.53
10.00
0.28

SEP
0.00
48.50
2.00
21.60
24.60
44.60
1.40
19.80
17.20
10.80
27.00
29.00
20.40
16.50
12.00
2.40
24.50
17.64
17.64
17.64
23.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.10
15.00
4.40
16.55
27.51
17.32
16.42
10.64
4.58
11.19

OCT
31.00
89.50
87.10
34.80
28.00
56.00
66.40
12.60
26.00
29.00
28.00
9.20
84.40
7.40
22.00
76.80
86.30
51.69
51.69
51.69
52.80
24.80
25.20
8.10
26.70
122.40
44.60
48.48
90.63
38.16
11.23
24.91
43.56
61.63

a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 406
Tt = 1.645

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la media no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bm tiene el valor de:
Bm = R*STm /St

Bm = -0.016744

El valor Am es:
Am = Tm-Bm*t

Am=

64.24784

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la media es:


Tm = Am+Bm*t
Tm = 64.2478365-0.0167441*t

SERIE DE PRECIPITACION ACUMULADA MENSUAL

300.00

y = -0.0168x + 64.256
R = 0.001

Precipitacin acumulada mensual

250.00

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
0

50

100

150

200

Tiempo en orden cronolgico

250

300

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
Precipitacin y
NOV
78.50
109.00
80.40
164.20
109.60
80.40
71.80
78.30
101.20
38.40
51.00
48.00
175.00
103.00
95.60
92.00
78.90
96.42
96.42
65.00
128.30
52.50
100.60
43.00
54.80
86.80
96.42
90.44
102.87
81.58
68.12
49.41
106.69
51.96

DIC
156.00
46.90
107.00
107.00
110.50
209.40
149.50
126.80
118.80
101.20
207.20
90.00
125.10
104.60
113.60
93.80
105.70
150.48
150.48
150.48
137.70
80.80
165.00
107.30
41.70
36.60
69.00
141.15
266.89
112.14
225.88
132.45
232.86
68.65

TOTAL DESVEST
714.10
60.74233896
638.91
41.80854528
719.00
53.30725404
766.40
57.81955211
726.90
60.89565031
858.10
68.74772668
742.20
63.87956708
730.60
66.99488221
887.70
74.79608795
784.50
63.1890112
803.10
72.99328892
671.60
52.16049242
824.10
62.46733146
696.60
61.96552561
651.00
53.12586256
656.20
56.00600347
833.90
58.30704711
900.95
76.78777355
829.25
64.95727765
797.83
64.38673943
544.20
49.15338701
591.90
52.31452301
669.80
67.35637694
868.50
92.07131747
616.50
60.4697088
568.30
45.06676781
614.72
57.08234177
624.97
53.53380593
839.16
85.5327625
884.21
85.94604411
677.79
76.89766152
752.25
82.67298947
707.56
70.09955364
623.25
55.68030798

y*t

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

130.70
134.40
106.50
71.50
4.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
31.00
78.50
156.00
104.00
115.40
52.90
36.00
22.50
4.20
5.01
5.00
48.50
89.50
109.00
46.90
62.40
120.60
164.40
53.00
10.40
2.10
17.00
12.60
2.00
87.10
80.40

130.700
268.800
319.500
286.000
22.500
0.000
7.000
0.000
0.000
310.000
863.500
1872.000
1352.000
1615.600
793.500
576.000
382.500
75.660
95.127
100.000
1018.500
1969.000
2507.000
1125.600
1560.000
3135.600
4438.800
1484.000
301.600
63.000
527.000
403.200
66.000
2961.400
2814.000

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61

107.00
111.80
136.80
110.00
31.80
3.00
2.00
35.00
8.40
21.60
34.80
164.20
107.00
148.40
104.20
159.20
29.80
0.00
3.20
9.40
0.00
24.60
28.00
109.60
110.50
163.50

3852.000
4136.600
5198.400
4290.000
1272.000
123.000
84.000
1505.000
369.600
972.000
1600.800
7717.400
5136.000
7271.600
5210.000
8119.200
1549.600
0.000
172.800
517.000
0.000
1402.200
1624.000
6466.400
6630.000
9973.500

350

400

62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124

126.40
95.60
77.80
1.40
0.00
3.00
0.00
44.60
56.00
80.40
209.40
159.80
151.60
94.60
36.20
1.00
0.10
0.00
9.80
1.40
66.40
71.80
149.50
207.20
52.20
150.70
42.60
0.60
0.00
12.20
27.60
19.80
12.60
78.30
126.80
219.60
191.20
107.20
72.60
12.00
2.80
10.40
8.70
17.20
26.00
101.20
118.80
146.40
186.70
143.00
60.80
9.20
17.80
0.00
41.20
10.80
29.00
38.40
101.20
107.60
198.20
89.20
79.50

7836.800
6022.800
4979.200
91.000
0.000
201.000
0.000
3077.400
3920.000
5708.400
15076.800
11665.400
11218.400
7095.000
2751.200
77.000
7.800
0.000
784.000
113.400
5444.800
5959.400
12558.000
17612.000
4489.200
13110.900
3748.800
53.400
0.000
1110.200
2539.200
1841.400
1184.400
7438.500
12172.800
21301.200
18737.600
10612.800
7260.000
1212.000
285.600
1071.200
904.800
1806.000
2756.000
10828.400
12830.400
15957.600
20537.000
15873.000
6809.600
1039.600
2029.200
0.000
4779.200
1263.600
3422.000
4569.600
12144.000
13019.600
24180.400
10971.600
9858.000

125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187

13.00
1.40
0.00
1.00
27.00
28.00
51.00
207.20
143.70
112.10
138.80
52.40
11.00
10.40
27.00
0.00
29.00
9.20
48.00
90.00
118.40
127.30
113.30
51.00
4.20
0.00
0.00
5.00
20.40
84.40
175.00
125.10
172.20
93.20
142.80
43.50
13.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
16.50
7.40
103.00
104.60
80.00
123.00
140.00
49.40
8.80
0.00
0.00
6.60
12.00
22.00
95.60
113.60
98.00
116.00
154.60
15.40
4.00
0.00
1.00

1625.000
176.400
0.000
128.000
3483.000
3640.000
6681.000
27350.400
19112.100
15021.400
18738.000
7126.400
1507.000
1435.200
3753.000
0.000
4089.000
1306.400
6864.000
12960.000
17168.000
18585.800
16655.100
7548.000
625.800
0.000
0.000
760.000
3121.200
12997.600
27125.000
19515.600
27035.400
14725.600
22705.200
6960.000
2125.200
32.400
0.000
0.000
2722.500
1228.400
17201.000
17572.800
13520.000
20910.000
23940.000
8496.800
1522.400
0.000
0.000
1161.600
2124.000
3916.000
17112.400
20448.000
17738.000
21112.000
28291.800
2833.600
740.000
0.000
187.000

188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250

2.20
2.40
76.80
92.00
93.80
156.50
101.60
148.50
113.50
5.70
2.00
0.00
10.70
24.50
86.30
78.90
105.70
236.70
148.80
131.62
44.06
7.26
4.20
5.01
7.07
17.64
51.69
96.42
150.48
165.51
148.30
131.62
44.06
7.26
4.20
5.01
7.07
17.64
51.69
96.42
150.48
165.51
148.30
131.62
44.06
7.26
4.20
5.01
7.07
17.64
51.69
65.00
150.48
45.90
83.00
57.00
16.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.00
52.80

413.600
453.600
14592.000
17572.000
18009.600
30204.500
19710.400
28957.500
22246.000
1122.900
396.000
0.000
2140.000
4924.500
17432.600
16016.700
21562.800
48523.500
30652.800
27244.539
9164.748
1518.284
882.700
1056.407
1498.133
3757.320
11060.947
20731.017
32503.680
35914.856
32329.400
28823.932
9693.484
1605.458
933.140
1116.487
1582.933
3969.000
11681.187
21888.097
34309.440
37900.931
34109.000
30403.326
10222.219
1692.632
983.580
1176.567
1667.733
4180.680
12301.427
15535.000
36115.200
11061.900
20086.000
13851.000
4026.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
5727.000
13200.000

251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313

128.30
137.70
101.90
152.10
116.30
44.80
18.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
24.80
52.50
80.80
189.70
83.30
72.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
33.40
0.00
0.00
25.20
100.60
165.00
223.30
138.50
254.70
93.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.10
43.00
107.30
191.30
97.60
136.40
30.20
27.30
0.00
0.00
4.40
6.10
26.70
54.80
41.70
133.40
64.30
24.60
32.00
0.00
36.60
0.00
16.60
15.00
122.40
86.80
36.60
47.60

32203.300
34700.400
25780.700
38633.400
29656.500
11468.800
4805.900
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
6497.600
13807.500
21331.200
50270.500
22157.800
19384.200
0.000
0.000
0.000
9051.400
0.000
0.000
6904.800
27665.000
45540.000
61854.100
38503.000
71061.300
26208.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
2316.600
12341.000
30902.400
55285.700
28304.000
39692.400
8818.400
7998.900
0.000
0.000
1302.400
1811.700
7956.600
16385.200
12510.000
40153.400
19418.600
7453.800
9728.000
0.000
11199.600
0.000
5112.800
4635.000
37944.000
26994.800
11419.200
14898.800

314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376

180.70
123.00
27.50
0.00
21.50
0.00
0.00
4.40
44.60
96.42
69.00
122.50
127.57
38.27
17.63
0.00
15.76
0.00
6.63
16.55
48.48
90.44
141.15
68.35
201.93
50.12
16.91
3.20
0.00
0.00
10.74
27.51
90.63
102.87
266.89
257.88
166.31
174.90
21.53
14.25
0.00
0.00
0.13
17.32
38.16
81.58
112.14
140.20
34.20
161.94
14.33
1.30
3.74
0.43
0.00
16.42
11.23
68.12
225.88
234.62
203.49
69.51
16.53

56739.800
38745.000
8690.000
0.000
6837.000
0.000
0.000
1412.400
14361.200
31144.737
22356.000
39812.663
41586.388
12514.186
5783.975
0.000
5200.174
0.000
2200.632
5509.821
16192.715
30298.535
47425.591
23033.180
68253.789
16990.177
5749.498
1092.245
0.000
0.000
3694.451
9490.487
31357.234
35697.573
92877.901
90000.911
58207.712
61391.242
7579.984
5031.555
0.000
0.000
46.840
6184.569
13659.866
29285.426
40371.732
50610.489
12381.394
58784.585
5215.811
473.078
1370.414
158.557
0.000
6057.991
4156.174
25271.582
84028.156
87512.638
76104.074
26065.559
6214.527

377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397

2.72
0.34
0.11
7.53
10.64
24.91
49.41
132.45
103.01
81.90
102.56
16.72
5.68
0.00
0.00
10.00
4.58
43.56
106.69
232.86
155.22

1024.283
128.375
42.905
2860.702
4054.341
9513.787
18925.633
50860.952
39657.641
31614.200
39688.814
6485.818
2209.355
0.000
0.000
3921.489
1800.877
17164.583
42140.842
92213.600
61621.963

398

121.94

48531.128

399

124.78

49788.052

400

24.37

9747.415

401

0.00

0.000

402

3.22

1295.989

403

0.00

0.000

404

0.28

114.921

405

11.19

4531.410

406

61.63

25022.790

407

51.96

21148.098

408

68.65

28008.837
4979883.388

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


La media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:
y = Ts =
Sy = STs =
N=

63.800 (Media de los datos)


11.897 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

17.5
9.958

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

1152.875

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)

R=

0.306969921

Tc =

1.824576062

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 32
Tt = 1.693

Como Tc > Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
Bs = R*STs/St

Bs =

0.366727495

As = Ts-Bs*t

As=

57.38272489

El valor As es:

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 57.3827249+0.3667275*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


100

Desviacin estandar anual

90
80
70

60
50
40

y = 0.3778x + 57.188
R = 0.1

Desviacin estandar anual

50
40

30
20
10
0
0

10

15

20

Tiempo

25

30

35

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
DESVEST
t

al 95% de probabilidades y necesita correccin.

d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Eliminacin de la tendencia en la desviacin estandar


t*d

60.7423
41.8085
53.3073
57.8196
60.8957
68.7477
63.8796
66.9949
74.7961
63.1890
72.9933
52.1605
62.4673
61.9655
53.1259
56.0060
58.3070
76.7878
64.9573
64.3867
49.1534
52.3145
67.3564
92.0713
60.4697
45.0668
57.0823
53.5338
85.5328
85.9460
76.8977
82.6730
70.0996
55.6803

t
60.7423
83.6171
159.9218
231.2782
304.4783
412.4864
447.1570
535.9591
673.1648
631.8901
802.9262
625.9259
812.0753
867.5174
796.8879
896.0961
991.2198
1382.1799
1234.1883
1287.7348
1032.2211
1150.9195
1549.1967
2209.7116
1511.7427
1171.7360
1541.2232
1498.9466
2480.4501
2578.3813
2383.8275
2645.5357
2313.2853
1893.1305
39197.7542

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Ts prom =

Ts=As+Bs*t
57.74945238
58.11617988
58.48290738
58.84963487
59.21636237
59.58308986
59.94981736
60.31654485
60.68327235
61.04999984
61.41672734
61.78345483
62.15018233
62.51690982
62.88363732
63.25036481
63.61709231
63.98381981
64.3505473
64.7172748
65.08400229
65.45072979
65.81745728
66.18418478
66.55091227
66.91763977
67.28436726
67.65109476
68.01782225
68.38454975
68.75127724
69.11800474
69.48473224
69.85145973
63.80045606

40

in de la tendencia en la desviacin estandar


Zt = Yt/Ts
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
2.26
1.79
1.07
1.90
2.51
2.74
2.67
3.44
3.62
2.40
1.75
2.33
1.91
2.75
1.27
1.55
2.46
3.70
2.57
2.56
0.71
1.56
2.88
3.37
2.87
1.99
0.71
1.81
1.00
3.77
2.04
3.39
1.48
2.22

FEB
2.33
1.99
2.06
2.32
1.76
2.12
2.53
0.87
3.15
3.06
3.23
1.81
2.05
1.49
1.96
1.83
1.60
2.33
2.30
2.29
1.28
2.32
1.27
2.09
1.47
0.96
2.69
1.89
2.97
2.43
0.50
2.94
1.18
1.75

MAR
1.84
0.91
2.81
1.87
2.69
1.60
1.58
2.50
1.77
2.34
1.45
2.25
1.82
2.28
2.23
2.44
2.33
2.06
2.05
2.03
0.88
1.78
1.10
3.85
2.05
0.37
1.83
0.57
0.74
2.56
2.36
1.01
1.48
1.79

ABR
1.24
0.62
0.91
0.54
0.50
1.31
0.60
0.71
1.20
1.00
1.29
0.85
0.82
0.70
0.79
0.24
1.78
0.69
0.68
0.68
0.25
0.68
0.00
1.41
0.45
0.48
0.41
0.26
0.25
0.31
0.21
0.24
0.24
0.35

MAY
0.08
0.39
0.18
0.05
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.20
0.15
0.21
0.18
0.07
0.21
0.14
0.06
0.09
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.21
0.02
0.04
0.08
0.00

JUN
0.00
0.07
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.29
0.02
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.55
0.32
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.05

JUL
0.02
0.09
0.29
0.59
0.16
0.05
0.00
0.20
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
0.00
0.09
0.22
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.46
0.14
0.67
0.02
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.10
0.03
0.17
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.25
0.00
0.10
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.14
0.00

Xcorreg = Ts prom * Zt
SEP
0.00
0.83
0.03
0.37
0.42
0.75
0.02
0.33
0.28
0.18
0.44
0.47
0.33
0.26
0.19
0.04
0.39
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.22
0.07
0.24
0.40
0.25
0.24
0.15
0.07
0.16

OCT
0.54
1.54
1.49
0.59
0.47
0.94
1.11
0.21
0.43
0.48
0.46
0.15
1.36
0.12
0.35
1.21
1.36
0.81
0.80
0.80
0.81
0.38
0.38
0.12
0.40
1.83
0.66
0.72
1.33
0.56
0.16
0.36
0.63
0.88

NOV
1.36
1.88
1.37
2.79
1.85
1.35
1.20
1.30
1.67
0.63
0.83
0.78
2.82
1.65
1.52
1.45
1.24
1.51
1.50
1.00
1.97
0.80
1.53
0.65
0.82
1.30
1.43
1.34
1.51
1.19
0.99
0.71
1.54
0.74

DIC
2.70
0.81
1.83
1.82
1.87
3.51
2.49
2.10
1.96
1.66
3.37
1.46
2.01
1.67
1.81
1.48
1.66
2.35
2.34
2.33
2.12
1.23
2.51
1.62
0.63
0.55
1.03
2.09
3.92
1.64
3.29
1.92
3.35
0.98

AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
144.39
114.17
68.07
121.21
159.89
175.07
170.06
219.17
230.88
153.00
111.78
148.39
121.54
175.74
81.17
98.85
156.95
236.02
164.09
163.16
44.99
99.33
183.89
215.26
183.39
127.19
45.14
115.53
64.11
240.60
130.10
216.57
94.58
141.77

FEB
148.48
126.69
131.57
148.31
112.27
135.35
161.34
55.22
201.02
195.11
205.89
115.76
130.68
95.11
124.79
117.01
101.89
148.37
147.03
146.20
81.36
148.26
80.75
133.51
93.57
61.30
171.34
120.30
189.41
155.16
31.74
187.83
75.20
111.37

MAR
117.66
58.07
179.35
119.25
171.52
102.37
100.68
159.40
112.71
149.44
92.66
143.33
116.31
145.73
142.04
155.94
148.93
131.24
130.49
129.75
55.88
113.37
70.38
245.53
130.76
23.45
116.63
36.09
47.01
163.18
150.28
64.16
94.17
113.97

ABR
78.99
39.52
57.82
34.48
32.11
83.31
38.53
45.06
76.33
63.54
82.59
54.11
52.35
44.39
50.12
15.53
113.83
43.94
43.68
43.44
16.17
43.67
0.00
90.23
28.95
30.51
26.08
16.63
15.86
20.09
13.30
15.26
15.35
22.26

MAY
4.97
24.70
11.35
3.25
0.00
1.50
1.06
0.63
12.62
9.61
13.50
11.36
4.31
13.47
8.93
4.03
5.72
7.24
7.20
7.16
0.00
18.23
0.00
0.00
26.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
13.30
1.20
2.51
5.21
0.00

JUN
0.00
4.61
2.29
2.17
3.45
0.00
0.11
0.00
2.94
18.60
1.45
10.74
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
2.01
4.19
4.17
4.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
34.90
20.39
14.86
0.00
0.00
3.47
0.31
0.00
2.94

JUL
1.10
5.50
18.55
37.94
10.13
3.21
0.00
12.90
10.93
0.00
0.00
27.88
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.01
0.00
4.99
4.96
4.94
0.00
0.00
32.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.40
0.10
0.00
0.00

AGO
0.00
5.49
13.75
9.11
0.00
0.00
10.43
29.19
9.15
43.06
1.04
0.00
5.13
0.00
6.70
2.22
10.73
7.05
7.01
6.97
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.22
15.83
0.00
6.25
10.07
0.12
0.00
6.95
9.19
0.26

SEP
0.00
53.24
2.18
23.42
26.50
47.76
1.49
20.94
18.08
11.29
28.05
29.95
20.94
16.84
12.17
2.42
24.57
17.59
17.49
17.39
22.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.85
14.30
4.17
15.60
25.80
16.16
15.24
9.82
4.21
10.22

OCT
34.25
98.25
95.02
37.73
30.17
59.96
70.66
13.33
27.34
30.31
29.09
9.50
86.64
7.55
22.32
77.47
86.55
51.54
51.24
50.95
51.76
24.17
24.43
7.81
25.60
116.70
42.29
45.72
85.01
35.60
10.42
22.99
40.00
56.29

NOV
86.73
119.66
87.71
178.01
118.08
86.09
76.41
82.82
106.40
40.13
52.98
49.57
179.65
105.11
96.99
92.80
79.13
96.15
95.60
64.08
125.77
51.18
97.52
41.45
52.54
82.76
91.43
85.30
96.50
76.11
63.21
45.61
97.96
47.46

DIC
DESVEST
172.35
67.10693812
51.49
45.89779063
116.73
58.1542073
116.00
62.68371591
119.05
65.60974208
224.22
73.61377743
159.10
67.98261767
134.12
70.86453724
124.90
78.63822002
105.76
66.03583526
215.24
75.82633143
92.94
53.86333952
128.42
64.12602645
106.75
63.23775127
115.26
53.90041677
94.62
56.49309018
106.00
58.4751057
150.05
76.56771645
149.19
64.40199986
148.35
63.47460322
134.98
48.18401447
78.76
50.99546541
159.94
65.29221494
103.44
88.75522247
39.98
57.97058022
34.90
42.96744997
65.43
54.12668033
133.11
50.48671045
250.34
80.22940274
104.63
80.18473223
209.62
71.36021426
122.26
76.31259686
213.81
64.36498131
62.70
50.85690487

La media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:


y = Ts =
Sy = STs =
N=

63.795 (Media de los datos)


11.058 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

17.5
9.958

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

1117.311

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)

R=

0.008111773

Tc =

0.045888627

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 32
Tt = 1.693

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
Bs = R*STs/St

Bs =

0.009007672

As = Ts-Bs*t

As=

63.63768731

El valor As es:

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 63.6376873+0.00900767*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


100

DESVIACION ESTANDAR

90
80
70
60
50
40

y = 0.0093x + 63.633
R = 7E-05

30
0

10

15

20
TIEMPO

25

30

35

40

babilidades y no necesita correccin.

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
DESVEST
t

d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

t*d
67.1069
45.8978
58.1542
62.6837
65.6097
73.6138
67.9826
70.8645
78.6382
66.0358
75.8263
53.8633
64.1260
63.2378
53.9004
56.4931
58.4751
76.5677
64.4020
63.4746
48.1840
50.9955
65.2922
88.7552
57.9706
42.9674
54.1267
50.4867
80.2294
80.1847
71.3602
76.3126
64.3650
50.8569

67.1069
91.7956
174.4626
250.7349
328.0487
441.6827
475.8783
566.9163
707.7440
660.3584
834.0896
646.3601
833.6383
885.3285
808.5063
903.8894
994.0768
1378.2189
1223.6380
1269.4921
1011.8643
1121.9002
1501.7209
2130.1253
1449.2645
1117.1537
1461.4204
1413.6279
2326.6527
2405.5420
2212.1666
2442.0031
2124.0444
1729.1348
37988.5872

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIAS EN LA ESTACION KAYRA


TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
AOS
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
1965
98.00
102.00 112.40
88.00
5.80
1966
95.00
161.10
98.30
18.30
19.80
1967
65.70
117.90 140.90
19.00
1.80
1968
135.40
118.30
85.00
34.60
6.30
1969
144.40
77.80
88.30
16.80
2.90
1970
190.60
121.50 132.50
86.40
2.30
1971
128.90
161.60
83.60
40.00
1.50
1972
192.10
66.80
57.20
29.70
3.40
1973
221.20
120.50
99.60
75.20
14.00
1974
102.50
157.70 121.50
34.50
3.60
1975
124.70
131.00
55.30
66.80
22.50
1976
119.60
83.10 123.10
42.90
13.00
1977
116.70
122.80
69.30
47.60
7.90
1978
175.40
124.70
88.50
48.70
11.40
1979
101.10
131.60 108.80
46.80
6.20
1980
106.20
126.40 135.00
23.20
3.70
1981
225.40
80.80 124.40
57.20
1.80
1982
178.90
115.50 143.10
58.80
0.00
1983
128.40
84.00
54.50
23.50
3.40
1984
198.60
142.40
71.00
82.80
0.00
1985
129.10
119.40
74.20
33.20
15.60
1986
76.40
86.20 125.70
65.50
6.20
1987
223.30
88.40
48.60
13.10
2.10
1988
163.80
84.30 166.50 108.90
4.60
1989
151.40
126.80 119.30
39.60
9.40
1990
168.00
90.40
60.70
47.40
7.50
1991
90.10
163.60 105.20
49.60
11.00
1992
107.10
102.40 104.00
14.90
0.00
1993
206.70
104.50
76.20
19.60
46.60
1994
177.20
163.90 173.90
45.50
11.80
1995
122.00
94.80
94.40
17.80
0.00
1996
131.90
98.00
70.50
32.30
11.00
1997
123.30
127.70 104.80
31.00
4.80
1998
116.90
176.10
22.60
31.00
1.60

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.60
5.30
3.30
1.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
8.20
0.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.90
9.20
6.20
1.30
11.60
0.00
1.30
0.00
9.10
31.80
5.10
19.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.90

JUL
0.40
0.00
11.00
30.90
7.20
3.70
0.00
6.50
9.10
1.00
0.30
0.70
4.40
3.40
0.90
5.30
0.00
3.40
0.50
1.30
0.90
1.80
9.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.70
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
1.00
1.70
19.00
8.60
3.90
3.40
5.70
27.30
11.80
34.60
0.60
2.50
0.00
0.00
8.10
0.60
9.80
4.90
0.90
11.40
0.00
4.20
0.00
0.00
6.10
5.80
0.00
21.40
6.90
0.00
1.20
6.30
7.10
1.60

SEP
30.60
31.90
32.10
16.30
22.80
42.10
3.50
12.20
14.50
5.90
51.10
26.80
29.90
13.70
11.50
12.60
45.90
14.00
5.50
4.20
43.30
7.50
8.20
9.90
30.70
12.80
21.40
8.00
18.00
25.70
28.80
19.60
12.30
6.80

OCT
58.30
59.70
70.50
30.10
29.80
46.10
55.70
7.90
65.10
43.30
47.50
25.30
65.00
12.30
18.40
62.90
108.90
37.90
26.00
114.60
60.80
17.30
26.50
36.20
48.70
73.70
49.30
50.70
46.20
40.20
26.70
58.40
44.40
38.30

NOV
41.00
63.70
57.20
54.70
54.70
48.20
51.00
50.20
88.80
60.90
51.00
47.80
71.50
86.70
85.60
60.20
120.80
122.50
44.30
69.40
116.50
69.60
101.80
47.60
60.70
93.80
72.20
117.40
111.90
40.50
70.20
49.00
200.40
45.20

DIC
TOTAL DESVEST
129.70 667.20 48.7690103
64.50 614.00 49.3173643
125.60 661.30 50.0191138
72.90 598.40 44.1945561
72.90 524.80 44.5511011
177.40 855.20 69.3395641
127.50 659.10 58.0942827
100.20 553.50
55.234066
96.50 816.30 64.3570173
108.00 681.70
53.225651
170.10 721.60 55.3902409
66.80 560.30 43.0636835
78.00 613.10 43.5260728
118.00 682.80 59.9918631
81.80 600.80 48.6935376
83.10 619.20 51.1280745
144.30 923.20 70.4219663
98.60 786.80 63.3701153
100.50 477.70 43.5563054
103.10 800.10 65.3661036
122.40 727.00 50.4446021
102.70 563.10 45.4682532
107.60 630.10 67.3705824
113.70 735.50 64.0038558
88.50 690.30
52.336883
66.50 658.40 48.7298179
112.00 681.00 52.7067099
57.00 602.30 45.9884463
201.50 840.80 73.0706051
116.60 795.30 71.0426137
102.60 559.10
46.757371
133.20 610.20 48.6967705
148.40 804.20 70.0248246
58.90 500.90 54.1666529

La media y desviacin estndar de los datos de precipitacin acumulada mensual son:


y = Tm =
Sy = STm =
N=

55.920 (Media de los datos)


54.274 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
408 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

204.5
117.924

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t = ########
Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre los datos de precipitacin mensual y el tiempo
R = (t*Tm-t*Tm)/(St*STm)

R=

0.0016

Tc =

0.0314

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 406
Tt = 1.645

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la media no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bm tiene el valor de:
Bm = R*STm/St

Bm =

0.0007

Am=

55.773

El valor Am es:
Am = Tm-Bm*t

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la media es:


Tm = Am+Bm*t
Tm = 55.7729761+0.00071822*t

SERIE DE PRECIPITACION ACUMULADA MENSUAL

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
Precipitacin y
1
98.00
2
102.00
3
112.40
4
88.00
5
5.80
6
0.00
7
0.40
8
1.00
9
30.60
10
58.30
11
41.00
12
129.70
13
95.00
14
161.10
15
98.30
16
18.30
17
19.80
18
0.00
19
0.00
20
1.70
21
31.90
22
59.70
23
63.70
24
64.50
25
65.70
26
117.90
27
140.90
28
19.00
29
1.80
30
0.60
31
11.00
32
19.00
33
32.10
34
70.50
35
57.20
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83

125.60
135.40
118.30
85.00
34.60
6.30
5.30
30.90
8.60
16.30
30.10
54.70
72.90
144.40
77.80
88.30
16.80
2.90
3.30
7.20
3.90
22.80
29.80
54.70
72.90
190.60
121.50
132.50
86.40
2.30
1.00
3.70
3.40
42.10
46.10
48.20
177.40
128.90
161.60
83.60
40.00
1.50
0.10
0.00
5.70
3.50
55.70
51.00

SERIE DE PRECIPITACION ACUMULADA MENSUAL

Precipitacin acumulada mensual

250

y = 0.0007x + 55.773
R = 2E-06

200

150

100

50

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

Tiempo en orden cronolgico

300

350

400

84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169

127.50
192.10
66.80
57.20
29.70
3.40
0.00
6.50
27.30
12.20
7.90
50.20
100.20
221.20
120.50
99.60
75.20
14.00
0.00
9.10
11.80
14.50
65.10
88.80
96.50
102.50
157.70
121.50
34.50
3.60
8.20
1.00
34.60
5.90
43.30
60.90
108.00
124.70
131.00
55.30
66.80
22.50
0.70
0.30
0.60
51.10
47.50
51.00
170.10
119.60
83.10
123.10
42.90
13.00
8.70
0.70
2.50
26.80
25.30
47.80
66.80
116.70
122.80
69.30
47.60
7.90
0.00
4.40
0.00
29.90
65.00
71.50
78.00
175.40
124.70
88.50
48.70
11.40
0.00
3.40
0.00
13.70
12.30
86.70
118.00
101.10

170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255

131.60
108.80
46.80
6.20
0.00
0.90
8.10
11.50
18.40
85.60
81.80
106.20
126.40
135.00
23.20
3.70
0.00
5.30
0.60
12.60
62.90
60.20
83.10
225.40
80.80
124.40
57.20
1.80
3.90
0.00
9.80
45.90
108.90
120.80
144.30
178.90
115.50
143.10
58.80
0.00
9.20
3.40
4.90
14.00
37.90
122.50
98.60
128.40
84.00
54.50
23.50
3.40
6.20
0.50
0.90
5.50
26.00
44.30
100.50
198.60
142.40
71.00
82.80
0.00
1.30
1.30
11.40
4.20
114.60
69.40
103.10
129.10
119.40
74.20
33.20
15.60
11.60
0.90
0.00
43.30
60.80
116.50
122.40
76.40
86.20
125.70

256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341

65.50
6.20
0.00
1.80
4.20
7.50
17.30
69.60
102.70
223.30
88.40
48.60
13.10
2.10
1.30
9.20
0.00
8.20
26.50
101.80
107.60
163.80
84.30
166.50
108.90
4.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.90
36.20
47.60
113.70
151.40
126.80
119.30
39.60
9.40
9.10
0.00
6.10
30.70
48.70
60.70
88.50
168.00
90.40
60.70
47.40
7.50
31.80
0.00
5.80
12.80
73.70
93.80
66.50
90.10
163.60
105.20
49.60
11.00
5.10
1.50
0.00
21.40
49.30
72.20
112.00
107.10
102.40
104.00
14.90
0.00
19.40
0.00
21.40
8.00
50.70
117.40
57.00
206.70
104.50
76.20
19.60
46.60

342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408

0.00
2.70
6.90
18.00
46.20
111.90
201.50
177.20
163.90
173.90
45.50
11.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.70
40.20
40.50
116.60
122.00
94.80
94.40
17.80
0.00
0.00
0.60
1.20
28.80
26.70
70.20
102.60
131.90
98.00
70.50
32.30
11.00
0.00
0.00
6.30
19.60
58.40
49.00
133.20
123.30
127.70
104.80
31.00
4.80
0.00
0.00
7.10
12.30
44.40
200.40
148.40
116.90
176.10
22.60
31.00
1.60
1.90
0.00
1.60
6.80
38.30
45.20
58.90

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


98.000
204.000
337.200
352.000
29.000
0.000
2.800
8.000
275.400
583.000
451.000
1556.400
1235.000
2255.400
1474.500
292.800
336.600
0.000
0.000
34.000
669.900
1313.400
1465.100
1548.000
1642.500
3065.400
3804.300
532.000
52.200
18.000
341.000
608.000
1059.300
2397.000
2002.000
4521.600
5009.800
4495.400
3315.000
1384.000
258.300
222.600
1328.700
378.400
733.500
1384.600
2570.900
3499.200
7075.600
3890.000
4503.300
873.600
153.700
178.200
396.000
218.400
1299.600
1728.400
3227.300
4374.000
11626.600
7533.000
8347.500
5529.600
149.500
66.000
247.900
231.200
2904.900
3227.000
3422.200
12772.800
9409.700
11958.400
6270.000
3040.000
115.500
7.800
0.000
456.000
283.500
4567.400
4233.000

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
DESVEST
La media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:
t
d
t*d
1
48.7690
48.7690
y = Ts =
55.071 (Media de los datos)
2
49.3174
98.6347
Sy = STs =
9.414 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
3
50.0191
150.0573
N=
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)
4
44.1946
176.7782
5
44.5511
222.7555
La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:
6
69.3396
416.0374
7
58.0943
406.6600
t=
17.5
8
55.2341
441.8725
St =
9.958
9
64.3570
579.2132
10
53.2257
532.2565
El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:
11
55.3902
609.2926
12
43.0637
516.7642
y*t =
984.353
13
43.5261
565.8389
14
59.9919
839.8861
Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
15
48.6935
730.4031
16
51.1281
818.0492
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)
R = 0.21983093
17
70.4220
1197.1734
18
63.3701
1140.6621
El valor T calculado es:
19
43.5563
827.5698
20
65.3661
1307.3221
1/2
2 1/2
Tc = [R*(n-2) ]/[1-R ]
Tc = 1.27473408
21
50.4446
1059.3366
22
45.4683
1000.3016
El valor T tabular es:
23
67.3706
1549.5234
24
64.0039
1536.0925
a = 0.05
25
52.3369
1308.4221
G.L.= N-2
G.L.= 32
26
48.7298
1266.9753
27
52.7067
1423.0812
Tt = 1.693
28
45.9884
1287.6765
29
73.0706
2119.0475
Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y 30
no necesita
71.0426
correccin.
2131.2784
31
46.7574
1449.4785
El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
32
48.6968
1558.2967
33
70.0248
2310.8192
Bs = R*STs/St
Bs = 0.20781479
34
54.1667
1841.6662
33467.9916
El valor As es:
As = Ts-Bs*t

As= 51.4343494

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 51.4343494+0.20781479*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


y = 0.2141x + 51.324
R = 0.0513

75
70

Desviacin estandar anual

y*t

65
60
55
50
45
40
0

10

15

20

Tiempo

25

30

35

40

10710.000
16328.500
5744.800
4976.400
2613.600
302.600
0.000
591.500
2511.600
1134.600
742.600
4769.000
9619.200
21456.400
11809.000
9860.400
7520.000
1414.000
0.000
937.300
1227.200
1522.500
6900.600
9501.600
10422.000
11172.500
17347.000
13486.500
3864.000
406.800
934.800
115.000
4013.600
690.300
5109.400
7247.100
12960.000
15088.700
15982.000
6801.900
8283.200
2812.500
88.200
38.100
76.800
6591.900
6175.000
6681.000
22453.200
15906.800
11135.400
16618.500
5834.400
1781.000
1200.600
97.300
350.000
3778.800
3592.600
6835.400
9619.200
16921.500
17928.800
10187.100
7044.800
1177.100
0.000
664.400
0.000
4574.700
10010.000
11082.500
12168.000
27537.800
19702.600
14071.500
7792.000
1835.400
0.000
554.200
0.000
2260.500
2041.800
14478.900
19824.000
17085.900

22372.000
18604.800
8049.600
1072.600
0.000
157.500
1425.600
2035.500
3275.200
15322.400
14724.000
19222.200
23004.800
24705.000
4268.800
684.500
0.000
991.100
112.800
2381.400
11951.000
11498.200
15955.200
43502.200
15675.200
24258.000
11211.200
354.600
772.200
0.000
1960.000
9225.900
21997.800
24522.400
29437.200
36674.500
23793.000
29621.700
12230.400
0.000
1932.000
717.400
1038.800
2982.000
8110.600
26337.500
21297.600
27862.800
18312.000
11935.500
5170.000
751.400
1376.400
111.500
201.600
1237.500
5876.000
10056.100
22914.000
45479.400
32752.000
16401.000
19209.600
0.000
304.200
305.500
2690.400
995.400
27274.800
16586.600
24744.000
31113.100
28894.800
18030.600
8100.800
3822.000
2853.600
222.300
0.000
10781.700
15200.000
29241.500
30844.800
19329.200
21894.800
32053.500

16768.000
1593.400
0.000
466.200
1092.000
1957.500
4532.600
18304.800
27112.800
59174.500
23514.400
12976.200
3510.800
564.900
351.000
2493.200
0.000
2238.600
7261.000
27995.000
29697.600
45372.600
23435.400
46453.500
30492.000
1292.600
0.000
0.000
0.000
2821.500
10353.200
13661.200
32745.600
43754.600
36772.000
34716.300
11563.200
2754.200
2675.400
0.000
1805.600
9117.900
14512.600
18149.300
26550.000
50568.000
27300.800
18392.100
14409.600
2287.500
9730.800
0.000
1786.400
3955.200
22847.000
29171.800
20748.000
28201.300
51370.400
33138.000
15673.600
3487.000
1621.800
478.500
0.000
6869.400
15874.600
23320.600
36288.000
34807.500
33382.400
34008.000
4887.200
0.000
6402.000
0.000
7104.800
2664.000
16933.800
39329.000
19152.000
69657.900
35321.000
25831.800
6664.000
15890.600

0.000
926.100
2373.600
6210.000
15985.200
38829.300
70122.000
61842.800
57365.000
61038.900
16016.000
4165.400
0.000
0.000
0.000
9174.900
14391.600
14539.500
41976.000
44042.000
34317.600
34267.200
6479.200
0.000
0.000
220.200
441.600
10627.200
9879.000
26044.200
38167.200
49198.700
36652.000
26437.500
12144.800
4147.000
0.000
0.000
2394.000
7467.600
22308.800
18767.000
51148.800
47470.500
49292.200
40557.600
12028.000
1867.200
0.000
0.000
2783.200
4833.900
17493.600
79158.000
58766.400
46409.300
70087.800
9017.400
12400.000
641.600
763.800
0.000
646.400
2754.000
15549.800
18396.400
24031.200
4669803.800

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIAS EN LA ESTACION PARURO


TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
115.09
67.66
71.17
279.09
293.13
89.60
132.40
204.80
251.40
177.30
158.70
154.60
112.30
229.90
234.90
179.70
173.20
59.80
180.47
180.47
180.47
180.47
361.20
160.30
216.50
180.47
180.47
180.47
180.47
202.00
165.00
218.00
207.00
177.50

FEB
114.71
197.50
267.80
292.05
246.79
79.80
156.90
90.80
241.80
205.50
187.80
106.30
170.00
87.00
136.00
112.40
158.80
40.40
147.10
147.10
147.10
147.10
75.20
87.90
122.50
147.10
147.10
147.10
147.10
163.00
72.00
110.00
152.50
149.20

MAR
164.79
91.44
226.24
178.09
253.25
115.00
77.60
98.10
149.70
254.90
116.80
117.60
175.90
223.40
144.47
72.80
205.50
24.40
144.47
144.47
144.47
144.47
91.00
144.47
203.60
144.47
144.47
144.47
144.47
166.00
126.00
95.30
173.50
66.50

ABR
52.28
12.46
14.57
0.00
9.07
53.80
47.50
41.90
61.00
62.00
56.20
56.60
60.00
45.80
40.47
6.60
34.50
4.00
40.47
40.47
40.47
40.47
66.00
40.47
11.30
40.47
40.47
40.47
35.40
88.00
14.00
71.30
67.00
40.47

MAY
1.91
21.42
1.97
0.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
23.60
0.80
30.10
14.30
3.00
11.60
6.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.49
6.49
6.49
6.49
0.00
6.49
0.00
6.49
6.49
6.49
0.00
12.00
0.00
14.40
13.00
4.20

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.78
1.50
2.80
0.00
0.00
10.20
4.20
4.20
0.00
4.80
1.52
0.00
4.00
1.52
1.52
1.52
1.52
1.52
0.00
1.52
0.00
1.52
1.52
1.52
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00

La media y desviacin estndar de los datos de precipitacin acumulada mensual son:

JUL
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.16
0.00
14.80
0.00
8.80
9.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.60
0.00
3.10
3.10
0.00
3.10
3.10
3.10
3.10
3.10
16.00
3.10
0.00
3.10
3.10
3.10
0.00
1.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
0.00
3.68
12.01
2.26
0.00
5.00
0.00
18.70
13.30
36.80
2.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.00
6.40
6.40
6.40
6.40
6.40
0.00
6.40
6.40
6.40
6.40
6.40
5.00
1.00
0.00
33.50
12.50
1.50

SEP
19.15
37.46
5.38
14.36
0.00
40.20
8.40
28.00
31.10
8.50
28.10
38.00
56.40
48.70
7.00
14.40
26.40
20.01
20.01
20.01
20.01
0.00
6.40
1.60
20.01
20.01
20.01
20.01
18.00
28.00
24.00
26.10
4.00
0.70

OCT
23.27
61.34
51.14
26.41
5.67
50.80
48.00
28.20
40.50
49.20
62.70
23.20
75.50
16.80
13.40
42.40
42.40
43.18
43.18
43.18
43.18
2.00
18.20
3.30
43.18
43.18
43.18
43.18
57.00
92.00
34.00
76.30
68.50
110.50

NOV
30.93
111.82
30.53
107.51
48.67
59.40
48.70
57.30
112.20
97.70
96.90
81.60
106.60
129.80
78.20
116.20
41.00
87.90
87.90
87.90
87.90
90.00
191.90
52.60
87.90
87.90
87.90
87.90
90.50
112.00
38.00
80.90
180.00
94.50

DIC
160.28
81.91
166.10
54.18
124.48
251.50
141.60
107.80
89.70
83.90
218.90
120.70
63.20
114.90
94.60
162.80
45.40
131.76
131.76
131.76
131.76
171.60
171.40
41.30
131.76
131.76
131.76
131.76
239.00
160.00
152.00
181.00
125.50
102.00

TOTAL DESVEST
682.41
63.99143023
686.68
58.50966826
846.91
95.21146217
966.11
109.8217734
982.84
116.1698598
766.40
69.29305794
663.90
59.16061535
689.40
59.46455782
1023.30
87.69555939
986.80
86.27229971
962.40
75.69442155
717.90
54.53761213
825.50
62.89916112
912.70
83.05055917
760.16
75.90563223
710.40
67.57776096
743.20
73.23946196
422.48
40.84432031
812.89
66.81115338
812.89
66.81115338
812.89
66.81115338
793.63
75.00127725
997.30
109.8367835
549.46
56.69315584
843.16
80.68432494
812.89
66.81115338
812.89
66.81115338
812.89
66.81115338
916.95
82.67019833
1025.00
75.47360566
632.00
61.44078203
906.80
69.02189815
1003.50
79.75106867
750.07
63.61610502

y=
Sy =
N=

67.757 (Media de los datos)


72.906 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
408 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

204.5
117.924

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

14320.971

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre los datos de precipitacin mensual y el tiempo
R = (t*Tm -t*Tm )/(St*STm )

R=

0.054055

Tc =

1.090775

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 406
Tt = 1.645

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la media no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bm tiene el valor de:
Bm = R*STm /St

Bm =

0.033419

Am=

60.92245

El valor Am es:
Am = Tm-Bm*t

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la media es:


Tm = Am+Bm*t

Tm = 67.5718458+0.00901781*t

SERIE DE PRECIPITACION ACUMULADA MENSUAL


400.00
y = 0.009x + 67.567
R = 0.0002

Precipitacin acumulada mensual

350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00

50.00
0.00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Tiempo en orden cronolgico

Datos historicos corregidos en el analisis de consistencia de la estacion de Paruro.


datos completados para el analisis de consistencia con el valor medio mensual de los registros historicos.

95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110

127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161

162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202

203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243

244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284

285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325

326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366

367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405

406
407
408

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
Precipitacin y

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


y*t

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

115.09
114.71
164.79
52.28
1.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
19.15
23.27
30.93
160.28
67.66
197.50
91.44
12.46
21.42
0.00
0.00
3.68
37.46
61.34
111.82
81.91
71.17
267.80
226.24
14.57
1.97
0.00
0.00
12.01
5.38
51.14
30.53

115.091
229.416
494.355
209.117
9.575
0.000
0.000
0.000
172.349
232.672
340.198
1923.418
879.561
2765.034
1371.571
199.295
364.148
0.000
0.000
73.603
786.707
1349.396
2571.872
1965.777
1779.178
6962.692
6108.424
408.095
57.118
0.000
0.000
384.460
177.655
1738.867
1068.492

36
37
38

166.10
279.09
292.05

5979.614
10326.497
11097.726

La media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:


y = Ts =
Sy = STs =
N=

73.365 (Media de los datos)


16.238 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

17.5
9.958

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

1254.591

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)

R=

-0.181128453

Tc =

-1.041850036

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 32
Tt = 1.693

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
Bs = R*STs/St
El valor As es:

Bs =

-0.295354849

178.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.16
2.26
14.36
26.41
107.51
54.18
293.13
246.79
253.25
9.07
0.00
1.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.67
48.67
124.48
89.60
79.80
115.00
53.80
5.00
1.50
14.80
5.00
40.20
50.80
59.40
251.50
132.40
156.90
77.60
47.50
0.00
2.80
0.00

6945.466
0.000
0.000
0.000
522.843
99.535
646.413
1214.895
5052.940
2600.584
14363.272
12339.744
12915.598
471.452
0.000
96.115
0.000
0.000
0.000
329.060
2871.486
7468.924
5465.600
4947.600
7245.000
3443.200
325.000
99.000
991.600
340.000
2773.800
3556.000
4217.400
18108.000
9665.200
11610.600
5820.000
3610.000
0.000
218.400
0.000

As = Ts-Bs*t

As=

78.53327848

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 78.4515849-0.17227895*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


140

Desviacin estandar anual

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79

y = -0.3043x + 78.69
R = 0.0348

120
100
80
60

40
20
0

10

15

20

Tiempo

25

30

35

80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120

0.00
8.40
48.00
48.70
141.60
204.80
90.80
98.10
41.90
5.00
0.00
8.80
18.70
28.00
28.20
57.30
107.80
251.40
241.80
149.70
61.00
23.60
0.00
9.00
13.30
31.10
40.50
112.20
89.70
177.30
205.50
254.90
62.00
0.80
10.20
0.00
36.80
8.50
49.20
97.70
83.90

0.000
680.400
3936.000
4042.100
11894.400
17408.000
7808.800
8534.700
3687.200
445.000
0.000
800.800
1720.400
2604.000
2650.800
5443.500
10348.800
24385.800
23696.400
14820.300
6100.000
2383.600
0.000
927.000
1383.200
3265.500
4293.000
12005.400
9687.600
19325.700
22605.000
28293.900
6944.000
90.400
1162.800
0.000
4268.800
994.500
5805.600
11626.300
10068.000

121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161

158.70
187.80
116.80
56.20
30.10
4.20
0.00
2.00
28.10
62.70
96.90
218.90
154.60
106.30
117.60
56.60
14.30
4.20
0.00
0.80
38.00
23.20
81.60
120.70
112.30
170.00
175.90
60.00
3.00
0.00
2.60
0.00
56.40
75.50
106.60
63.20
229.90
87.00
223.40
45.80
11.60

19202.700
22911.600
14366.400
6968.800
3762.500
529.200
0.000
256.000
3624.900
8151.000
12693.900
28894.800
20561.800
14244.200
15876.000
7697.600
1959.100
579.600
0.000
112.000
5358.000
3294.400
11668.800
17380.800
16283.500
24820.000
25857.300
8880.000
447.000
0.000
392.600
0.000
8629.200
11627.000
16523.000
9859.200
36094.300
13746.000
35520.600
7328.000
1867.600

162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202

4.80
0.00
0.00
48.70
16.80
129.80
114.90
234.90
136.00
164.06
41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
0.00
7.00
13.40
78.20
94.60
179.70
112.40
72.80
6.60
0.00
0.00
3.51
0.00
14.40
42.40
116.20
162.80
173.20
158.80
205.50
34.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
12.00
26.40
42.40

777.600
0.000
0.000
8035.500
2788.800
21676.600
19303.200
39698.100
23120.000
28053.975
7089.267
1139.724
274.775
614.022
0.000
1239.000
2385.200
13997.800
17028.000
32525.700
20456.800
13322.400
1214.400
0.000
0.000
656.126
0.000
2721.600
8056.000
22194.200
31257.600
33427.600
30807.200
40072.500
6762.000
0.000
792.000
0.000
2400.000
5306.400
8564.800

203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243

41.00
45.40
59.80
40.40
24.40
4.00
0.00
1.58
3.51
6.73
20.67
45.35
93.50
140.98
199.50
169.34
164.06
41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
6.73
20.67
45.35
93.50
140.98
199.50
169.34
164.06
41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
6.73
20.67
45.35
93.50
140.98
199.50
169.34
164.06

8323.000
9261.600
12259.000
8322.400
5050.800
832.000
0.000
331.625
740.335
1427.184
4401.727
9704.077
20101.673
30452.677
43290.665
36916.623
35928.775
9067.667
1455.948
350.575
782.439
1507.968
4649.712
10248.231
21223.627
32144.492
45684.619
38948.731
37897.475
9562.267
1535.004
369.525
824.543
1588.752
4897.696
10792.385
22345.581
33836.308
48078.573
40980.838
39866.175

244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284

41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
6.73
20.67
45.35
93.50
140.98
199.50
169.34
164.06
41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
6.73
0.00
2.00
90.00
171.60
361.20
75.20
91.00
66.00
0.00
0.00
16.00
0.00
6.40
18.20
191.90
171.40
160.30
87.90
164.06
41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
0.00

10056.867
1614.060
388.475
866.648
1669.536
5145.681
11336.538
23467.535
35528.123
50472.527
43012.946
41834.875
10551.467
1693.116
407.425
908.752
1750.320
0.000
524.000
23670.000
45302.400
95718.000
20003.200
24297.000
17688.000
0.000
0.000
4336.000
0.000
1747.200
4986.800
52772.500
47306.400
44403.100
24436.200
45772.275
11540.667
1851.228
445.325
992.961
0.000

285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325

1.60
3.30
52.60
41.30
216.50
122.50
203.60
11.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.73
20.67
45.35
93.50
140.98
199.50
169.34
164.06
41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
6.73
20.67
45.35
93.50
140.98
199.50
169.34
164.06
41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
6.73
20.67
45.35
93.50
140.98
199.50

456.000
943.800
15096.200
11894.400
62568.500
35525.000
59247.600
3299.600
0.000
0.000
0.000
1992.672
6137.619
13513.154
27955.350
42295.385
60048.342
51141.377
49709.675
12529.867
2009.340
483.225
1077.170
2073.456
6385.604
14057.308
29077.304
43987.200
62442.296
53173.485
51678.375
13024.467
2088.396
502.175
1119.274
2154.240
6633.588
14601.462
30199.258
45679.015
64836.250

326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366

169.34
164.06
41.22
6.59
1.58
3.51
6.73
20.67
45.35
93.50
140.98
199.50
169.34
164.06
35.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
18.00
57.00
90.50
239.00
202.00
163.00
166.00
88.00
12.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
28.00
92.00
112.00
160.00
165.00
72.00
126.00
14.00
0.00
0.00

55205.592
53647.075
13519.067
2167.452
521.125
1161.378
2235.024
6881.573
15145.615
31321.212
47370.831
67230.204
57237.700
55615.775
12036.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1720.000
6210.000
19722.000
31403.500
83172.000
70498.000
57050.000
58266.000
30976.000
4236.000
0.000
355.000
356.000
9996.000
32936.000
40208.000
57600.000
59565.000
26064.000
45738.000
5096.000
0.000
0.000

367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397

7.00
0.00
24.00
34.00
38.00
152.00
218.00
110.00
95.30
71.30
14.40
0.00
0.00
33.50
26.10
76.30
80.90
181.00
207.00
152.50
173.50
67.00
13.00
0.00
0.00
12.50
4.00
68.50
180.00
125.50
177.50

2569.000
0.000
8856.000
12580.000
14098.000
56544.000
81314.000
41140.000
35737.500
26808.800
5428.800
0.000
0.000
12730.000
9944.100
29146.600
30984.700
69504.000
79695.000
58865.000
67144.500
25996.000
5057.000
0.000
0.000
4900.000
1572.000
26989.000
71100.000
49698.000
70467.500

398

149.20

59381.600

399

66.50

26533.500

400

41.22

16486.667

401

4.20

1684.200

402

3.00

1206.000

403

0.00

0.000

404

1.50

606.000

405

0.70

283.500

406

110.50

44863.000

407

94.50

38461.500

408

102.00

41616.000
5842956.144

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
DESVEST
t

de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.

d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

t*d
63.9914
58.5097
95.2115
109.8218
116.1699
69.2931
59.1606
59.4646
87.6956
86.2723
75.6944
54.5376
62.8992
83.0506
75.9056
67.5778
73.2395
40.8443
66.8112
66.8112
66.8112
75.0013
109.8368
56.6932
80.6843
66.8112
66.8112
66.8112
82.6702
75.4736
61.4408
69.0219
79.7511
63.6161

63.9914
117.0193
285.6344
439.2871
580.8493
415.7583
414.1243
475.7165
789.2600
862.7230
832.6386
654.4513
817.6891
1162.7078
1138.5845
1081.2442
1245.0709
735.1978
1269.4119
1336.2231
1403.0342
1650.0281
2526.2460
1360.6357
2017.1081
1737.0900
1803.9011
1870.7123
2397.4358
2264.2082
1904.6642
2208.7007
2631.7853
2162.9476
42656.0802

0.3043x + 78.69
R = 0.0348

35

40

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIAS EN LA ESTACION PERAYOC


TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
106.35
141.30
65.75
170.40
199.85
150.05
130.00
169.95
228.55
130.35
119.70
158.10
114.30
249.40
165.00
97.90
218.10
205.90
154.30
219.85
121.90
103.20
311.60
228.80
213.40
309.40
117.10
154.80
251.90
196.40
127.00
169.00
137.20
155.30

FEB
154.27
195.30
114.40
135.15
116.10
97.35
128.30
74.70
137.75
228.80
159.70
73.70
241.50
63.60
128.80
141.70
73.00
118.70
96.40
172.80
143.00
114.10
106.00
144.50
147.40
89.40
236.40
142.10
123.20
220.90
90.60
87.40
104.70
163.20

MAR
147.10
89.65
128.40
69.80
107.00
94.90
92.70
58.40
141.85
130.00
107.50
155.70
80.80
83.50
170.10
96.90
119.20
159.50
60.80
88.60
123.50
154.80
81.20
250.50
198.50
62.50
152.00
95.60
93.20
232.60
137.80
48.60
145.70
54.30

ABR
81.95
17.30
15.65
25.70
18.85
95.55
38.10
40.70
96.95
61.60
71.00
48.20
60.90
37.50
36.90
34.10
69.20
67.90
23.80
82.10
64.20
95.40
35.10
40.90
54.70
105.90
44.80
18.50
34.50
60.50
26.10
28.90
70.90
34.80

MAY
11.60
21.85
3.30
1.35
0.30
5.30
1.70
0.80
18.10
15.80
30.30
22.90
3.90
6.70
21.50
7.40
0.60
0.00
8.60
0.20
19.10
6.80
5.90
4.00
4.10
11.80
14.10
1.00
3.40
15.20
1.70
9.70
3.20
3.80

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.40
5.15
3.40
6.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
14.30
1.40
7.10
0.20
0.00
0.00
2.10
4.20
1.40
36.05
6.80
17.90
0.00
13.60
0.00
14.90
33.70
7.90
6.50
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
3.40

JUL
4.25
0.00
12.90
39.17
10.20
6.60
0.30
9.29
10.70
3.10
0.00
0.90
0.20
1.00
5.90
2.40
0.00
3.80
0.70
0.20
3.10
3.30
14.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
21.50
1.80
0.00
3.10
0.00
0.00
0.00

La media y desviacin estndar de los datos de precipitacin acumulada mensual son:


y=
Sy =
N=

66.474 (Media de los datos)


65.685 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
408 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t = 204.50637
St =
117.935
El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:
y*t = 13889.168
Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre los datos de precipitacin mensual y el tiempo
R = (t*Tm -t*Tm )/(St*STm )

R=

0.038058

Tc =

0.767411

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:

AGO
5.20
1.10
31.50
6.95
0.30
2.40
8.10
20.50
15.90
37.00
0.10
9.00
2.70
0.00
17.30
0.40
12.40
9.80
0.00
19.30
6.10
10.60
0.00
0.00
6.30
6.80
0.00
33.50
22.70
0.00
0.00
9.80
11.10
6.20

SEP
43.75
42.40
26.40
20.10
16.75
43.35
0.00
37.35
6.60
21.90
40.50
59.00
39.10
12.70
12.40
7.70
46.70
58.00
2.30
21.80
39.10
10.80
13.00
19.40
15.50
18.30
31.60
9.10
6.90
21.00
52.00
16.00
13.40
2.20

OCT
37.10
85.95
72.60
32.91
27.90
37.40
53.20
5.50
29.90
45.60
48.20
15.50
65.10
9.70
22.60
96.20
105.00
68.00
37.50
126.05
70.30
35.60
60.50
37.90
92.80
105.90
116.60
68.70
97.40
44.50
20.10
61.20
35.50
84.90

a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 406
Tt = 1.645

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la media no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bm tiene el valor de:
Bm = R*STm /St

Bm =

0.021197

Am=

62.13899

El valor Am es:
Am = Tm-Bm*t

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la media es:


Tm = Am+Bm*t
Tm = 62.1389948+0.02119715*t

SERIE DE PRECIPITACION ACUMULADA MENSUAL


350
y = 0.0212x + 62.128
R = 0.0015

Precipitacin acumulada mensual

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

Tiempo en orden cronolgico

300

350

400

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
Precipitacin y
NOV
60.53
58.55
72.55
94.45
73.90
34.40
44.40
67.60
101.75
42.25
42.10
56.20
170.80
161.20
131.70
66.60
112.10
171.90
60.35
82.60
128.10
115.10
121.20
57.70
72.40
109.10
104.80
124.90
100.90
64.20
27.50
66.00
138.40
70.60

DIC
185.35
47.85
135.00
88.10
86.60
213.60
147.60
102.95
91.65
121.40
152.20
103.00
66.70
124.30
137.30
67.50
133.90
150.40
172.40
110.20
146.40
87.50
164.90
154.50
72.50
105.70
116.20
66.60
220.00
165.00
124.00
168.00
178.70
69.40

TOTAL DESVEST
837.45
65.0236771
701.25
60.93693881
678.85
48.95705659
689.23
54.79560375
661.15
62.473607
786.90
66.55591122
645.90
56.64757276
587.74
50.31224861
879.70
71.74881321
852.10
67.71843724
772.70
57.59954953
709.30
54.94857858
846.20
74.68961025
749.60
79.50757921
849.50
68.50984612
620.90
49.04538637
894.40
66.81354426
1015.30
74.4082896
653.20
58.74300861
930.50
71.59301906
882.70
56.2446516
737.20
55.51604737
927.20
90.77768381
938.20
92.11132428
892.50
75.62442036
958.50
84.33039056
942.50
73.87010046
742.80
55.6968744
955.90
85.81598133
1020.30
91.64194281
610.20
54.13080958
664.60
59.81846528
838.80
67.46758144
648.10
57.9867298

y*t

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

106.35
154.27
147.10
81.95
11.60
0.00
4.25
5.20
43.75
37.10
60.53
185.35
141.30
195.30
89.65
17.30
21.85
0.00
0.00
1.10
42.40
85.95
58.55
47.85
65.75
114.40
128.40
15.65
3.30
0.40
12.90
31.50
26.40
72.60
72.55

106.350
308.540
441.300
327.800
58.000
0.000
29.750
41.600
393.750
371.000
665.830
2224.200
1836.900
2734.200
1344.750
276.800
371.450
0.000
0.000
22.000
890.400
1890.900
1346.650
1148.400
1643.750
2974.400
3466.800
438.200
95.700
12.000
399.900
1008.000
871.200
2468.400
2539.250

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61

135.00
170.40
135.15
69.80
25.70
1.35
5.15
39.17
6.95
20.10
32.91
94.45
88.10
199.85
116.10
107.00
18.85
0.30
3.40
10.20
0.30
16.75
27.90
73.90
86.60
150.05

4860.000
6304.800
5135.700
2722.200
1028.000
55.350
216.300
1684.310
305.800
904.500
1513.860
4439.150
4228.800
9792.650
5805.000
5457.000
980.200
15.900
183.600
561.000
16.800
954.750
1618.200
4360.100
5196.000
9153.050

62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124

97.35
94.90
95.55
5.30
6.00
6.60
2.40
43.35
37.40
34.40
213.60
130.00
128.30
92.70
38.10
1.70
1.50
0.30
8.10
0.00
53.20
44.40
147.60
169.95
74.70
58.40
40.70
0.80
0.00
9.29
20.50
37.35
5.50
67.60
102.95
228.55
137.75
141.85
96.95
18.10
0.00
10.70
15.90
6.60
29.90
101.75
91.65
130.35
228.80
130.00
61.60
15.80
14.30
3.10
37.00
21.90
45.60
42.25
121.40
119.70
159.70
107.50
71.00

6035.700
5978.700
6115.200
344.500
396.000
442.200
163.200
2991.150
2618.000
2442.400
15379.200
9490.000
9494.200
6952.500
2895.600
130.900
117.000
23.700
648.000
0.000
4362.400
3685.200
12398.400
14445.750
6424.200
5080.800
3581.600
71.200
0.000
845.390
1886.000
3473.550
517.000
6422.000
9883.200
22169.350
13499.500
14043.150
9695.000
1828.100
0.000
1102.100
1653.600
693.000
3169.400
10887.250
9898.200
14208.150
25168.000
14430.000
6899.200
1785.400
1630.200
356.500
4292.000
2562.300
5380.800
5027.750
14568.000
14483.700
19483.400
13222.500
8804.000

125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187

30.30
1.40
0.00
0.10
40.50
48.20
42.10
152.20
158.10
73.70
155.70
48.20
22.90
7.10
0.90
9.00
59.00
15.50
56.20
103.00
114.30
241.50
80.80
60.90
3.90
0.20
0.20
2.70
39.10
65.10
170.80
66.70
249.40
63.60
83.50
37.50
6.70
0.00
1.00
0.00
12.70
9.70
161.20
124.30
165.00
128.80
170.10
36.90
21.50
0.00
5.90
17.30
12.40
22.60
131.70
137.30
97.90
141.70
96.90
34.10
7.40
2.10
2.40

3787.500
176.400
0.000
12.800
5224.500
6266.000
5515.100
20090.400
21027.300
9875.800
21019.500
6555.200
3137.300
979.800
125.100
1260.000
8319.000
2201.000
8036.600
14832.000
16573.500
35259.000
11877.600
9013.200
581.100
30.000
30.200
410.400
5982.300
10025.400
26474.000
10405.200
39155.800
10048.800
13276.500
6000.000
1078.700
0.000
163.000
0.000
2095.500
1610.200
26920.400
20882.400
27885.000
21896.000
29087.100
6346.800
3719.500
0.000
1032.500
3044.800
2194.800
4022.800
23574.300
24714.000
17719.900
25789.400
17732.700
6274.400
1369.000
390.600
448.800

188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250

0.40
7.70
96.20
66.60
67.50
218.10
73.00
119.20
69.20
0.60
4.20
0.00
12.40
46.70
105.00
112.10
133.90
205.90
118.70
159.50
67.90
0.00
1.40
3.80
9.80
58.00
68.00
171.90
150.40
154.30
96.40
60.80
23.80
8.60
36.05
0.70
0.00
2.30
37.50
60.35
172.40
219.85
172.80
88.60
82.10
0.20
6.80
0.20
19.30
21.80
126.05
82.60
110.20
121.90
143.00
123.50
64.20
19.10
17.90
3.10
6.10
39.10
70.30

75.200
1455.300
18278.000
12720.600
12960.000
42093.300
14162.000
23244.000
13563.200
118.200
831.600
0.000
2480.000
9386.700
21210.000
22756.300
27315.600
42209.500
24452.200
33016.500
14123.200
0.000
294.000
801.800
2077.600
12354.000
14552.000
36958.500
32486.400
33483.100
21015.200
13315.200
5236.000
1900.600
8003.100
156.100
0.000
517.500
8475.000
13699.450
39307.200
50345.650
39744.000
20466.600
19047.200
46.600
1591.200
47.000
4554.800
5166.600
29999.900
19741.400
26448.000
29377.900
34606.000
30010.500
15664.800
4679.500
4403.400
765.700
1512.800
9735.900
17575.000

251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313

128.10
146.40
103.20
114.10
154.80
95.40
6.80
0.00
3.30
10.60
10.80
35.60
115.10
87.50
311.60
106.00
81.20
35.10
5.90
13.60
14.20
0.00
13.00
60.50
121.20
164.90
228.80
144.50
250.50
40.90
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
19.40
37.90
57.70
154.50
213.40
147.40
198.50
54.70
4.10
14.90
0.00
6.30
15.50
92.80
72.40
72.50
309.40
89.40
62.50
105.90
11.80
33.70
0.00
6.80
18.30
105.90
109.10
105.70
117.10

32153.100
36892.800
26109.600
28981.400
39474.000
24422.400
1747.600
0.000
854.700
2756.000
2818.800
9327.200
30271.300
23100.000
82574.000
28196.000
21680.400
9406.800
1587.100
3672.000
3848.200
0.000
3549.000
16577.000
33330.000
45512.400
63377.600
40171.000
69889.500
11452.000
1124.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
5529.000
10839.400
16559.900
44496.000
61672.600
42746.000
57763.500
15972.400
1201.300
4380.600
0.000
1864.800
4603.500
27654.400
21647.600
21750.000
93129.400
26998.800
18937.500
32193.600
3599.000
10312.200
0.000
2094.400
5654.700
32829.000
33930.100
32978.400
36652.300

314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376

236.40
152.00
44.80
14.10
7.90
1.00
0.00
31.60
116.60
104.80
116.20
154.80
142.10
95.60
18.50
1.00
6.50
21.50
33.50
9.10
68.70
124.90
66.60
251.90
123.20
93.20
34.50
3.40
0.00
1.80
22.70
6.90
97.40
100.90
220.00
196.40
220.90
232.60
60.50
15.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
21.00
44.50
64.20
165.00
127.00
90.60
137.80
26.10
1.70
0.30
3.10
0.00
52.00
20.10
27.50
124.00
169.00
87.40
48.60
28.90

74229.600
47880.000
14156.800
4469.700
2512.200
319.000
0.000
10143.600
37545.200
33850.400
37648.800
50310.000
46324.600
31261.200
6068.000
329.000
2145.000
7116.500
11122.000
3030.300
22945.800
41841.500
22377.600
84890.300
41641.600
31594.800
11730.000
1159.400
0.000
617.400
7808.800
2380.500
33700.400
35012.300
76560.000
68543.600
77315.000
81642.600
21296.000
5365.600
0.000
0.000
0.000
7497.000
15931.000
23047.800
59400.000
45847.000
32797.200
50021.400
9500.400
620.500
109.800
1137.700
0.000
19188.000
7437.000
10202.500
46128.000
63037.000
32687.600
18225.000
10866.400

377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397

9.70
0.00
0.00
9.80
16.00
61.20
66.00
168.00
137.20
104.70
145.70
70.90
3.20
0.00
0.00
11.10
13.40
35.50
138.40
178.70
155.30

3656.900
0.000
0.000
3724.000
6096.000
23378.400
25278.000
64512.000
52822.000
40414.200
56385.900
27509.200
1244.800
0.000
0.000
4351.200
5266.200
13987.000
54668.000
70765.200
61654.100

398

163.20

64953.600

399

54.30

21665.700

400

34.80

13920.000

401

3.80

1523.800

402

3.40

1366.800

403

0.00

0.000

404

6.20

2504.800

405

2.20

891.000

407.3

84.90

34579.770

408.3

70.60

28825.980

408

69.40

28315.200
5666780.53

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


La media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:
y = Ts =
Sy = STs =
N=

66.531 (Media de los datos)


12.442 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

17.5
9.958

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

1204.870

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)

R=

0.327482327

Tc =

1.960634461

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 32
Tt = 1.693

Como Tc > Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
Bs = R*STs/St

Bs =

0.409150367

As = Ts-Bs*t

As=

59.37108273

El valor As es:

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 59.3710827+0.40915037*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

Desviacin estandar anual

100
90
80
70

60
50
40

y = 0.4215x + 59.154

Desviacin estandar

40

y = 0.4215x + 59.154
R = 0.1138

30
20
0

10

15

20

Tiempo

25

30

35

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
DESVEST
t

al 95% de probabilidades y necesita correccin.

d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Eliminacin de la tendencia en la desviacin estandar


t*d

65.0237
60.9369
48.9571
54.7956
62.4736
66.5559
56.6476
50.3122
71.7488
67.7184
57.5995
54.9486
74.6896
79.5076
68.5098
49.0454
66.8135
74.4083
58.7430
71.5930
56.2447
55.5160
90.7777
92.1113
75.6244
84.3304
73.8701
55.6969
85.8160
91.6419
54.1308
59.8185
67.4676
57.9867

t
65.0237
121.8739
146.8712
219.1824
312.3680
399.3355
396.5330
402.4980
645.7393
677.1844
633.5950
659.3829
970.9649
1113.1061
1027.6477
784.7262
1135.8303
1339.3492
1116.1172
1431.8604
1181.1377
1221.3530
2087.8867
2210.6718
1890.6105
2192.5902
1994.4927
1559.5125
2488.6635
2749.2583
1678.0551
1914.1909
2226.4302
1971.5488
40965.5911

y = 0.4215x + 59.154

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Ts prom =

Ts=As+Bs*t
59.7802331
60.18938346
60.59853383
61.0076842
61.41683456
61.82598493
62.2351353
62.64428566
63.05343603
63.4625864
63.87173676
64.28088713
64.6900375
65.09918786
65.50833823
65.9174886
66.32663896
66.73578933
67.1449397
67.55409006
67.96324043
68.3723908
68.78154116
69.19069153
69.5998419
70.00899226
70.41814263
70.827293
71.23644336
71.64559373
72.0547441
72.46389446
72.87304483
73.2821952
66.53121415

y = 0.4215x + 59.154
R = 0.1138
35

40

in de la tendencia en la desviacin estandar


Zt = Yt/Ts
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
1.78
2.35
1.09
2.79
3.25
2.43
2.09
2.71
3.62
2.05
1.87
2.46
1.77
3.83
2.52
1.49
3.29
3.09
2.30
3.25
1.79
1.51
4.53
3.31
3.07
4.42
1.66
2.19
3.54
2.74
1.76
2.33
1.88
2.12

FEB
2.58
3.24
1.89
2.22
1.89
1.57
2.06
1.19
2.18
3.61
2.50
1.15
3.73
0.98
1.97
2.15
1.10
1.78
1.44
2.56
2.10
1.67
1.54
2.09
2.12
1.28
3.36
2.01
1.73
3.08
1.26
1.21
1.44
2.23

MAR
2.46
1.49
2.12
1.14
1.74
1.53
1.49
0.93
2.25
2.05
1.68
2.42
1.25
1.28
2.60
1.47
1.80
2.39
0.91
1.31
1.82
2.26
1.18
3.62
2.85
0.89
2.16
1.35
1.31
3.25
1.91
0.67
2.00
0.74

ABR
1.37
0.29
0.26
0.42
0.31
1.55
0.61
0.65
1.54
0.97
1.11
0.75
0.94
0.58
0.56
0.52
1.04
1.02
0.35
1.22
0.94
1.40
0.51
0.59
0.79
1.51
0.64
0.26
0.48
0.84
0.36
0.40
0.97
0.47

MAY
0.19
0.36
0.05
0.02
0.00
0.09
0.03
0.01
0.29
0.25
0.47
0.36
0.06
0.10
0.33
0.11
0.01
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.28
0.10
0.09
0.06
0.06
0.17
0.20
0.01
0.05
0.21
0.02
0.13
0.04
0.05

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.08
0.06
0.10
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.23
0.02
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.06
0.02
0.54
0.10
0.26
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.21
0.48
0.11
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05

JUL
0.07
0.00
0.21
0.64
0.17
0.11
0.00
0.15
0.17
0.05
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.09
0.04
0.00
0.06
0.01
0.00
0.05
0.05
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.30
0.03
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
0.09
0.02
0.52
0.11
0.00
0.04
0.13
0.33
0.25
0.58
0.00
0.14
0.04
0.00
0.26
0.01
0.19
0.15
0.00
0.29
0.09
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.10
0.00
0.47
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.15
0.08

Xcorreg = Ts prom * Zt
SEP
0.73
0.70
0.44
0.33
0.27
0.70
0.00
0.60
0.10
0.35
0.63
0.92
0.60
0.20
0.19
0.12
0.70
0.87
0.03
0.32
0.58
0.16
0.19
0.28
0.22
0.26
0.45
0.13
0.10
0.29
0.72
0.22
0.18
0.03

OCT
0.62
1.43
1.20
0.54
0.45
0.60
0.85
0.09
0.47
0.72
0.75
0.24
1.01
0.15
0.34
1.46
1.58
1.02
0.56
1.87
1.03
0.52
0.88
0.55
1.33
1.51
1.66
0.97
1.37
0.62
0.28
0.84
0.49
1.16

NOV
1.01
0.97
1.20
1.55
1.20
0.56
0.71
1.08
1.61
0.67
0.66
0.87
2.64
2.48
2.01
1.01
1.69
2.58
0.90
1.22
1.88
1.68
1.76
0.83
1.04
1.56
1.49
1.76
1.42
0.90
0.38
0.91
1.90
0.96

DIC
3.10
0.79
2.23
1.44
1.41
3.45
2.37
1.64
1.45
1.91
2.38
1.60
1.03
1.91
2.10
1.02
2.02
2.25
2.57
1.63
2.15
1.28
2.40
2.23
1.04
1.51
1.65
0.94
3.09
2.30
1.72
2.32
2.45
0.95

AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
118.36
156.19
72.19
185.83
216.49
161.47
138.97
180.49
241.16
136.65
124.68
163.63
117.55
254.89
167.58
98.81
218.77
205.27
152.89
216.52
119.33
100.42
301.41
220.01
203.99
294.03
110.64
145.41
235.26
182.38
117.26
155.16
125.26
140.99

FEB
171.69
215.88
125.60
147.39
125.77
104.76
137.16
79.33
145.35
239.86
166.35
76.28
248.37
65.00
130.81
143.02
73.23
118.34
95.52
170.18
139.99
111.03
102.53
138.95
140.90
84.96
223.35
133.48
115.06
205.13
83.65
80.24
95.59
148.17

MAR
163.71
99.10
140.97
76.12
115.91
102.12
99.10
62.02
149.67
136.29
111.98
161.15
83.10
85.34
172.76
97.80
119.57
159.01
60.24
87.26
120.90
150.63
78.54
240.87
189.75
59.40
143.61
89.80
87.04
216.00
127.24
44.62
133.02
49.30

ABR
91.20
19.12
17.18
28.03
20.42
102.82
40.73
43.23
102.30
64.58
73.96
49.89
62.63
38.32
37.48
34.42
69.41
67.69
23.58
80.86
62.85
92.83
33.95
39.33
52.29
100.64
42.33
17.38
32.22
56.18
24.10
26.53
64.73
31.59

MAY
12.91
24.15
3.62
1.47
0.32
5.70
1.82
0.85
19.10
16.56
31.56
23.70
4.01
6.85
21.84
7.47
0.60
0.00
8.52
0.20
18.70
6.62
5.71
3.85
3.92
11.21
13.32
0.94
3.18
14.11
1.57
8.91
2.92
3.45

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.44
5.62
3.68
6.46
1.60
0.00
0.00
14.99
1.46
7.35
0.21
0.00
0.00
2.12
4.21
1.40
35.72
6.70
17.52
0.00
13.16
0.00
14.24
32.03
7.46
6.11
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.00
0.00
3.09

JUL
4.73
0.00
14.16
42.72
11.05
7.10
0.32
9.87
11.29
3.25
0.00
0.93
0.21
1.02
5.99
2.42
0.00
3.79
0.69
0.20
3.03
3.21
13.74
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.94
20.20
1.68
0.00
2.86
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
5.79
1.22
34.58
7.58
0.32
2.58
8.66
21.77
16.78
38.79
0.10
9.32
2.78
0.00
17.57
0.40
12.44
9.77
0.00
19.01
5.97
10.31
0.00
0.00
6.02
6.46
0.00
31.47
21.20
0.00
0.00
9.00
10.13
5.63

SEP
48.69
46.87
28.98
21.92
18.14
46.65
0.00
39.67
6.96
22.96
42.19
61.07
40.21
12.98
12.59
7.77
46.84
57.82
2.28
21.47
38.28
10.51
12.57
18.65
14.82
17.39
29.86
8.55
6.44
19.50
48.01
14.69
12.23
2.00

OCT
41.29
95.01
79.71
35.89
30.22
40.25
56.87
5.84
31.55
47.80
50.21
16.04
66.95
9.91
22.95
97.10
105.32
67.79
37.16
124.14
68.82
34.64
58.52
36.44
88.71
100.64
110.16
64.53
90.97
41.32
18.56
56.19
32.41
77.08

NOV
67.37
64.72
79.65
103.00
80.05
37.02
47.46
71.79
107.36
44.29
43.85
58.17
175.66
164.75
133.76
67.22
112.45
171.37
59.80
81.35
125.40
112.00
117.23
55.48
69.21
103.68
99.02
117.32
94.24
59.62
25.39
60.60
126.36
64.10

DIC
DESVEST
206.28
72.36680023
52.89
67.35753537
148.22
53.75002018
96.08
59.75670271
93.81
67.67598746
229.86
71.62110862
157.79
60.5579433
109.34
53.43400362
96.71
75.70619394
127.27
70.99284958
158.54
59.99786696
106.61
56.87220279
68.60
76.81538991
127.03
81.25655561
139.44
69.5795889
68.13
49.50202402
134.31
67.01962124
149.94
74.18019475
170.82
58.20607931
108.53
70.50898737
143.32
55.05954302
85.14
54.02107478
159.50
87.80770857
148.56
88.57084827
69.30
72.29017148
100.45
80.14118033
109.79
69.79263141
62.56
52.31854164
205.47
80.14776091
153.22
85.10013532
114.49
49.981282
154.25
54.92107694
163.15
61.59616521
63.01
52.64481404

La media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:


y = Ts =
Sy = STs =
N=

66.516 (Media de los datos)


11.412 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

17.5
9.958

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

1166.476

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)

R=

0.021491523

Tc =

0.121602502

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 32
Tt = 1.693

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
Bs = R*STs/St

Bs =

0.024629538

As = Ts-Bs*t

As=

66.0851769

El valor As es:

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 66.0851769+0.02462954*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR CORREGIDA

DESVIACION ESTANDAR ANUAL

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30

y = 0.0254x + 66.072
R2 = 0.0005

DESVIACION ESTAN
20
0

10

15

20
TIEMPO

25

30

35

40

babilidades y no necesita correccin.

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
DESVEST
t

d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

t*d
72.3668
67.3575
53.7500
59.7567
67.6760
71.6211
60.5579
53.4340
75.7062
70.9928
59.9979
56.8722
76.8154
81.2566
69.5796
49.5020
67.0196
74.1802
58.2061
70.5090
55.0595
54.0211
87.8077
88.5708
72.2902
80.1412
69.7926
52.3185
80.1478
85.1001
49.9813
54.9211
61.5962
52.6448

72.3668
134.7151
161.2501
239.0268
338.3799
429.7267
423.9056
427.4720
681.3557
709.9285
659.9765
682.4664
998.6001
1137.5918
1043.6938
792.0324
1139.3336
1335.2435
1105.9155
1410.1797
1156.2504
1188.4636
2019.5773
2125.7004
1807.2543
2083.6707
1884.4010
1464.9192
2324.2851
2553.0041
1549.4197
1757.4745
2032.6735
1789.9237
39660.1779

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIAS EN LA ESTACION CORPAC


TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
102.90
110.50
82.80
56.60
114.50
126.90
94.80
154.30
205.50
124.40
145.90
201.00
77.70
167.10
137.00
120.00
256.00
168.40
150.80
360.40
124.80
206.90
159.87
123.84
118.49
163.86
70.87
81.89
281.46
231.31
136.96
149.03
149.03
149.03

FEB
170.50
184.00
106.00
72.50
83.70
69.40
127.40
68.00
78.50
153.90
179.40
200.00
236.50
62.10
112.00
184.00
91.10
160.40
82.40
252.70
90.80
144.60
63.78
67.85
66.43
92.60
128.39
129.00
86.64
237.85
83.83
123.17
123.17
123.17

MAR
158.70
79.60
134.00
47.40
80.80
92.40
46.90
54.10
127.10
138.20
126.30
106.00
53.20
70.10
134.00
165.70
153.20
186.40
46.10
55.00
94.50
206.70
55.93
179.17
105.43
70.64
80.07
80.83
103.90
217.07
101.87
107.24
107.24
107.24

ABR
77.60
12.30
16.10
19.70
9.60
68.90
32.70
36.70
91.00
72.20
115.00
35.00
35.40
41.20
43.83
34.00
0.00
28.60
8.30
49.00
61.60
78.70
16.19
44.23
36.22
102.92
42.15
34.03
2.86
65.94
41.15
43.32
43.32
43.32

MAY
11.00
25.20
1.80
0.40
5.00
13.50
0.00
0.00
4.00
8.00
26.60
12.00
0.00
6.60
17.00
9.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13.50
5.70
1.86
6.21
1.90
7.32
5.06
0.00
15.94
11.67
6.50
6.84
6.84
6.84

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.60
5.20
3.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
7.10
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.80
7.60
0.00
3.40
0.00
14.13
28.77
5.71
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.01
3.17
3.17
3.17

JUL
1.00
0.00
9.00
42.20
9.30
2.20
0.00
3.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.40
2.00
6.20
10.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.54
3.73
3.73
3.73

La media y desviacin estndar de los datos de precipitacin acumulada mensual son:


y = Tm =
Sy = STm =
N=

58.769 (Media de los datos)


61.660 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
408 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

204.5
117.924

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

12373.610

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre los datos de precipitacin mensual y el tiempo
R = (t*Tm-t*Tm)/(St*STm)
El valor T calculado es:

R=

0.048868

AGO
1.00
0.80
23.70
7.40
0.00
0.60
1.70
24.20
18.00
32.20
4.20
3.00
0.00
0.00
15.50
0.00
6.00
16.00
0.00
24.00
8.00
15.30
0.00
0.00
8.26
9.49
0.00
16.27
6.16
0.00
7.56
7.96
7.96
7.96

SEP
44.20
29.70
25.20
10.20
15.90
22.00
0.00
18.00
16.50
5.00
9.60
72.00
25.40
1.00
2.50
0.00
19.00
22.00
2.00
15.30
44.60
29.80
13.84
27.20
13.39
24.34
17.97
34.03
7.15
14.00
18.33
19.29
19.29
19.29

OCT
59.40
78.30
78.90
36.10
22.10
21.50
49.10
11.30
22.00
25.60
37.10
27.50
38.80
19.00
16.00
82.00
84.40
67.20
20.00
107.80
79.20
35.70
20.40
13.83
45.53
100.85
43.81
89.76
84.00
45.05
45.65
48.06
48.06
48.06

Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2

Tc =

0.98584

El valor T tabular es:


a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 406
Tt = 1.645

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la media no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bm tiene el valor de:
Bm = R*STm/St

Bm =

0.025552

Am=

53.54367

El valor Am es:
Am = Tm-Bm*t

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la media es:


Tm = Am+Bm*t
Tm = 53.5436713+0.02555222*t

SERIE DE PRECIPITACION ACUMULADA MENSUAL


400
y = 0.0256x + 53.531
R = 0.0024

Precipitacin acumulada mensual

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

Tiempo en orden cronolgico

300

350

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
Precipitacin y
NOV
63.00
62.00
51.60
50.50
42.70
36.20
44.40
66.20
74.40
37.60
49.80
37.70
84.30
128.00
148.00
89.10
95.50
104.90
61.10
94.20
140.80
58.00
55.45
71.33
48.58
92.91
92.68
149.74
113.24
83.91
72.90
76.74
76.74
76.74

DIC
186.70
40.40
89.40
41.50
73.10
191.60
125.50
147.40
80.30
123.20
130.00
117.50
50.20
126.00
158.50
73.90
120.50
63.60
111.61
115.50
199.70
57.60
69.05
95.61
29.66
75.80
112.00
212.38
197.90
148.22
104.77
110.30
110.30
110.30

TOTAL DESVEST
876.00
68.3234287
622.80
55.0662411
619.10
45.25494364
389.70
23.31932967
460.20
39.4506942
645.20
59.29079851
522.50
48.49694383
583.70
53.48987089
718.30
62.4589823
732.30
58.23248273
823.90
65.81935966
818.80
72.84088928
601.50
65.83718382
623.10
59.31837252
789.33
65.44433496
759.70
66.73023655
825.70
80.70781711
817.50
70.23484146
482.31
51.28623939
1091.10
110.7097772
867.10
61.91183553
845.20
75.22959202
470.05
45.89950171
629.27
57.36629653
488.02
39.07632847
769.50
50.25094017
601.09
45.74988705
827.95
68.04056715
899.24
90.21646431
1055.03
95.42275096
626.05
46.73433419
698.85
53.02675967
698.85
53.02675967
698.85
53.02675967

y*t

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

102.90
170.50
158.70
77.60
11.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
44.20
59.40
63.00
186.70
110.50
184.00
79.60
12.30
25.20
0.00
0.00
0.80
29.70
78.30
62.00
40.40
82.80
106.00
134.00
16.10
1.80
0.60
9.00
23.70
25.20
78.90
51.60

102.900
341.000
476.100
310.400
55.000
0.000
7.000
8.000
397.800
594.000
693.000
2240.400
1436.500
2576.000
1194.000
196.800
428.400
0.000
0.000
16.000
623.700
1722.600
1426.000
969.600
2070.000
2756.000
3618.000
450.800
52.200
18.000
279.000
758.400
831.600
2682.600
1806.000

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

89.40
56.60
72.50
47.40
19.70
0.40
5.20
42.20
7.40
10.20
36.10
50.50
41.50
114.50
83.70
80.80
9.60
5.00
3.50
9.30
0.00

3218.400
2094.200
2755.000
1848.600
788.000
16.400
218.400
1814.600
325.600
459.000
1660.600
2373.500
1992.000
5610.500
4185.000
4120.800
499.200
265.000
189.000
511.500
0.000

y = 0.0256x + 53.531
R = 0.0024

400

57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115

15.90
22.10
42.70
73.10
126.90
69.40
92.40
68.90
13.50
0.00
2.20
0.60
22.00
21.50
36.20
191.60
94.80
127.40
46.90
32.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.70
0.00
49.10
44.40
125.50
154.30
68.00
54.10
36.70
0.00
0.00
3.50
24.20
18.00
11.30
66.20
147.40
205.50
78.50
127.10
91.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
18.00
16.50
22.00
74.40
80.30
124.40
153.90
138.20
72.20
8.00
12.00
0.00

906.300
1281.800
2519.300
4386.000
7740.900
4302.800
5821.200
4409.600
877.500
0.000
147.400
40.800
1518.000
1505.000
2570.200
13795.200
6920.400
9427.600
3517.500
2485.200
0.000
0.000
0.000
136.000
0.000
4026.200
3685.200
10542.000
13115.500
5848.000
4706.700
3229.600
0.000
0.000
318.500
2226.400
1674.000
1062.200
6289.000
14150.400
19933.500
7693.000
12582.900
9100.000
404.000
0.000
103.000
1872.000
1732.500
2332.000
7960.800
8672.400
13559.600
16929.000
15340.200
8086.400
904.000
1368.000
0.000

116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174

32.20
5.00
25.60
37.60
123.20
145.90
179.40
126.30
115.00
26.60
0.00
0.00
4.20
9.60
37.10
49.80
130.00
201.00
200.00
106.00
35.00
12.00
7.10
0.00
3.00
72.00
27.50
37.70
117.50
77.70
236.50
53.20
35.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.40
38.80
84.30
50.20
167.10
62.10
70.10
41.20
6.60
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
19.00
128.00
126.00
137.00
112.00
134.00
43.83
17.00
0.00

3735.200
585.000
3020.800
4474.400
14784.000
17653.900
21886.800
15534.900
14260.000
3325.000
0.000
0.000
537.600
1238.400
4823.000
6523.800
17160.000
26733.000
26800.000
14310.000
4760.000
1644.000
979.800
0.000
420.000
10152.000
3905.000
5391.100
16920.000
11266.500
34529.000
7820.400
5239.200
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
3886.200
5975.200
13066.500
7831.200
26234.700
9811.800
11145.900
6592.000
1062.600
324.000
0.000
0.000
165.000
3154.000
21376.000
21168.000
23153.000
19040.000
22914.000
7539.129
2941.000
0.000

175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233

5.00
15.50
2.50
16.00
148.00
158.50
120.00
184.00
165.70
34.00
9.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
82.00
89.10
73.90
256.00
91.10
153.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00
19.00
84.40
95.50
120.50
168.40
160.40
186.40
28.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.00
22.00
67.20
104.90
63.60
150.80
82.40
46.10
8.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
20.00
61.10
111.61
360.40
252.70
55.00
49.00
0.00

875.000
2728.000
442.500
2848.000
26492.000
28530.000
21720.000
33488.000
30323.100
6256.000
1665.000
0.000
374.000
0.000
0.000
15580.000
17018.100
14188.800
49408.000
17673.400
29874.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1200.000
3819.000
17048.800
19386.500
24582.000
34522.000
33042.400
38584.800
5948.800
0.000
0.000
0.000
3392.000
4686.000
14380.800
22553.500
13737.600
32722.877
17963.200
10095.900
1826.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
450.000
4520.000
13869.700
25447.945
82531.600
58121.000
12705.000
11368.000
0.000

234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292

2.80
14.40
24.00
15.30
107.80
94.20
115.50
124.80
90.80
94.50
61.60
13.50
7.60
2.00
8.00
44.60
79.20
140.80
199.70
206.90
144.60
206.70
78.70
5.70
0.00
6.20
15.30
29.80
35.70
58.00
57.60
159.87
63.78
55.93
16.19
1.86
3.40
10.28
0.00
13.84
20.40
55.45
69.05
123.84
67.85
179.17
44.23
6.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.20
13.83
71.33
95.61
118.49
66.43
105.43
36.22

655.200
3384.000
5664.000
3626.100
25656.400
22513.800
27720.000
30076.800
21973.600
22963.500
15030.400
3307.500
1869.600
494.000
1984.000
11105.400
19800.000
35340.800
50324.400
52345.700
36728.400
52708.500
20147.200
1464.900
0.000
1605.800
3978.000
7777.800
9353.400
15254.000
15206.400
42364.591
16966.720
14934.110
4338.652
500.807
917.916
2785.884
0.000
3778.756
5589.091
15248.015
19056.720
34303.989
18862.056
49989.651
12384.111
1745.256
0.000
0.000
0.000
7750.892
3956.328
20471.990
27535.639
34242.582
19265.201
30680.552
10575.358

293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351

1.90
14.13
0.00
8.26
13.39
45.53
48.58
29.66
163.86
92.60
70.64
102.92
7.32
28.77
0.00
9.49
24.34
100.85
92.91
75.80
70.87
128.39
80.07
42.15
5.06
5.71
2.39
0.00
17.97
43.81
92.68
112.00
81.89
129.00
80.83
34.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.27
34.03
89.76
149.74
212.38
281.46
86.64
103.90
2.86
15.94
0.00
0.00
6.16
7.15
84.00
113.24
197.90
231.31
237.85
217.07

556.820
4153.966
0.000
2445.745
3975.493
13567.111
14526.735
8898.877
49322.551
27966.519
21403.675
31286.664
2233.127
8804.015
0.000
2922.091
7520.135
31264.802
28896.172
23648.145
22180.948
40313.352
25221.729
13319.797
1604.601
1814.529
763.324
0.000
5767.956
14106.130
29934.847
36289.471
26614.472
42055.438
26430.483
11162.657
0.000
0.000
0.000
5402.233
11332.820
29980.072
50163.892
71361.029
94851.418
29283.089
35221.307
971.910
5436.211
0.000
0.000
2117.973
2465.508
29063.199
39295.305
68869.307
80727.947
83246.705
76192.968

352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397

65.94
11.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.00
45.05
83.91
148.22
136.96
83.83
101.87
41.15
6.50
3.01
3.54
7.56
18.33
45.65
72.90
104.77
149.03
123.17
107.24
43.32
6.84
3.17
3.73
7.96
19.29
48.06
76.74
110.30
149.03
123.17
107.24
43.32
6.84
3.17
3.73
7.96
19.29
48.06
76.74
110.30
149.03

23210.577
4119.737
0.000
0.000
0.000
4999.704
16127.430
30124.384
53358.185
49442.518
30345.767
36977.808
14977.253
2371.030
1101.724
1298.810
2783.180
6762.952
16889.404
27044.073
38976.146
55586.804
46066.418
40215.998
16287.397
2578.212
1197.889
1412.055
3025.590
7351.365
18357.308
29392.059
42356.516
57375.120
47544.485
41502.910
16807.208
2660.277
1235.918
1456.764
3121.135
7582.904
18933.977
30312.959
43680.157
59163.435

398

123.17

49022.551

399

107.24

42789.822

400

43.32

17327.018

401

6.84

2742.342

402

3.17

1273.946

403

3.73

1501.473

404

7.96

3216.680

405

19.29

7814.443

406

48.06

19510.647

407

76.74

31233.859

408

110.30

45003.798

5048433.008

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


La media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:
y = Ts =
Sy = STs =
N=

60.509 (Media de los datos)


16.945 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

17.5
9.958

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

1088.821

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)

R=

0.177317867

Tc =

1.019212136

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 32
Tt = 1.693

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
Bs = R*STs/St

Bs =

0.301721101

As = Ts-Bm*t

As=

55.22845557

El valor As es:

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 55.2284556+0.3017211*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


120

Desviacin estandar anual

110
100
90
80

y = 0.3109x + 55.068
R = 0.0334

Desviacin estandar anual

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
0

10

15

20

Tiempo

25

30

35

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
DESVEST
t

de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.

d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

t*d
68.3234
55.0662
45.2549
23.3193
39.4507
59.2908
48.4969
53.4899
62.4590
58.2325
65.8194
72.8409
65.8372
59.3184
65.4443
66.7302
80.7078
70.2348
51.2862
110.7098
61.9118
75.2296
45.8995
57.3663
39.0763
50.2509
45.7499
68.0406
90.2165
95.4228
46.7343
53.0268
53.0268
53.0268

68.3234
110.1325
135.7648
93.2773
197.2535
355.7448
339.4786
427.9190
562.1308
582.3248
724.0130
874.0907
855.8834
830.4572
981.6650
1067.6838
1372.0329
1264.2271
974.4385
2214.1955
1300.1485
1655.0510
1055.6885
1376.7911
976.9082
1306.5244
1235.2470
1905.1359
2616.2775
2862.6825
1448.7644
1696.8563
1749.8831
1802.9098
37019.9050

y = 0.3109x + 55.068
R = 0.0334

35

40

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIAS EN LA ESTACION ACOMAYO


TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
110.00
201.20
93.20
141.00
172.00
214.40
145.00
255.60
276.30
176.60
149.60
163.10
133.20
211.90
154.00
166.10
171.43
267.50
28.70
171.43
171.43
171.43
171.43
230.70
199.70
255.70
171.43
80.00
264.50
85.10
110.60
171.43
171.43
171.43

FEB
160.00
185.50
144.70
245.50
115.70
86.10
236.90
132.80
200.40
328.60
204.90
121.70
222.90
119.70
163.10
218.60
153.47
68.10
54.90
153.47
153.47
153.47
153.47
124.70
107.50
119.20
153.47
101.30
70.40
185.20
118.40
153.47
153.47
153.47

MAR
186.10
86.30
157.90
181.30
128.20
148.90
84.60
143.50
231.00
242.10
156.50
114.10
127.40
179.90
190.00
165.70
225.20
132.10
62.20
141.36
141.36
141.36
65.70
210.50
158.00
76.20
141.36
67.60
78.70
133.90
83.20
141.36
141.36
141.36

ABR
50.60
15.60
38.50
46.10
51.90
93.60
45.30
137.10
110.60
46.20
70.20
49.50
59.1
63.9
63.8
18.6
82
82
66.1
64.26
64.26
64.26
21.50
149.00
101.60
66.20
64.26
10.80
61.20
82.80
51.30
64.26
64.26
64.26

MAY
10.30
35.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.40
3.50
10.80
6.30
12.40
30.20
9.80
15.50
6.00
13.60
9.07
9.07
4.80
2.50
9.07
9.07
9.07
0.00
13.70
13.60
11.60
9.07
1.20
9.07
3.30
9.07
9.07
9.07
9.07

JUN
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.00
13.80
1.10
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.02
0.00
1.00
4.02
4.02
4.02
1.10
0.00
1.80
66.00
4.02
3.40
2.80
0.00
4.02
4.02
4.02
4.02

La media y desviacin estndar de los datos de precipitacin acumulada mensual son:


y = Tm =
Sy = STm =
N=

72.334 (Media de los datos)


69.201 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
408 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

204.5
117.924

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

14307.277

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre los datos de precipitacin mensual y el tiempo
R = (t*Tm-t*Tm)/(St*STm)
El valor T calculado es:

R = -0.059431

JUL
1.00
0.00
23.50
23.10
8.70
9.30
0.00
15.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.90
1.80
0.00
4.96
4.96
4.96
0.00
0.00
4.96
4.96
4.96
17.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.96
1.40
6.90
0.00
4.96
4.96
4.96
4.96

AGO
0.00
17.90
38.10
12.90
2.60
0.00
28.90
11.60
13.60
33.20
1.40
2.60
0.00
1.90
4.20
9.17
9.17
11.50
12.90
9.17
9.17
9.17
0.00
6.20
8.10
0.00
9.17
9.40
3.00
0.00
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17

SEP
46.10
49.10
36.00
41.40
26.00
43.20
5.30
8.20
25.40
12.80
32.50
43.20
26.90
46.90
8.00
27.36
27.36
22.80
5.50
27.36
27.36
27.36
65.00
16.70
16.50
28.60
27.36
15.40
24.40
10.80
27.36
27.36
27.36
27.36

Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2

Tc = -1.199621

El valor T tabular es:


a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 406
Tt = 1.645

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la media no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bm tiene el valor de:
Bm = R*STm/St

Bm = -0.034876

El valor Am es:
Am = Tm-Bm*t

Am=

79.46583

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la media es:


Tm = Am+Bm*t
Tm = 48.7441237+0.01126247*t

SERIE DE PRECIPITACION ACUMULADA MENSUAL


y = -0.035x + 79.481
R = 0.0035

350

Precipitacin acumulada mensual

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

Tiempo en orden cronolgico

300

350

400

869.3
946.6
840.5
972.8
822.1
919.7
829.7
878
1111
1054.3
1017.9
724.7
865.5
1096.7
869.16
902.46
969.58
903.1
355.1
868
868
868
893
1031.1
886.5
964.93
868
528.2
778.27
705
700.98
868
868
868

869.3
1815.9
2656.4
3629.2
4451.3
5371
6200.7
7078.7
8189.7
9244
10261.9
10986.6
11852.1
12948.8
13817.96
14720.42
15690
16593.1
16948.2
17816.2
18684.2
19552.2
20445.2
21476.3
22362.8
23327.73
24195.73
24723.93
25502.2
26207.2
26908.18
27776.18
28644.18
29512.18

YO

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
Precipitacin y
OCT
58.80
110.90
103.20
65.00
74.00
54.10
58.20
34.10
51.40
38.60
50.60
5.60
48.00
63.80
13.40
59.07
59.07
82.00
27.30
59.07
59.07
59.07
113.20
49.20
63.20
117.60
59.07
67.10
33.30
35.00
59.07
59.07
59.07
59.07

NOV
67.70
136.90
42.90
122.40
91.00
77.30
71.20
55.00
96.50
82.60
82.40
72.70
160.20
219.20
115.50
97.60
97.60
173.90
28.10
97.60
97.60
97.60
97.60
68.00
100.90
97.60
97.60
112.60
90.60
79.70
97.60
97.60
97.60
97.60

DIC
178.70
108.20
160.50
93.10
152.00
190.40
149.20
73.50
99.50
67.40
238.50
130.50
70.50
183.50
138.60
126.23
126.23
58.40
65.90
126.23
126.23
126.23
186.40
162.40
115.60
126.23
126.23
58.00
133.40
89.20
126.23
126.23
126.23
126.23

TOTAL DESVEST
869.30
70.14708519
946.60
70.46317973
840.50
59.33091266
972.80
77.79568034
822.10
62.81147056
919.70
74.43004597
829.70
74.21372647
878.00
78.78259306
1111.00
96.27583321
1054.30
105.2050332
1017.90
82.9265406
724.70
58.39105564
865.50
73.00773465
1096.70
87.11446449
869.16
74.19615452
902.46
76.98682207
969.58
75.04217055
903.10
81.71645498
355.10
26.37038485
868.00
63.36953159
868.00
63.36953159
868.00
63.36953159
893.00
69.33900415
1031.10
85.60479091
886.50
66.94446986
964.93
71.85037325
868.00
63.36953159
528.20
41.54311743
778.27
75.217911
705.00
60.72936238
700.98
47.44549648
868.00
63.36953159
868.00
63.36953159
868.00
63.36953159

y*t

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

110.00
160.00
186.10
50.60
10.30
0.00
1.00
0.00
46.10
58.80
67.70
178.70
201.20
185.50
86.30
15.60
35.00
0.00
0.00
17.90
49.10
110.90
136.90
108.20
93.20
144.70
157.70
38.50
1.00
1.00
23.50
38.10
36.00
103.20
42.90

110.000
320.000
558.300
202.400
51.500
0.000
7.000
0.000
414.900
588.000
744.700
2144.400
2615.600
2597.000
1294.500
249.600
595.000
0.000
0.000
358.000
1031.100
2439.800
3148.700
2596.800
2330.000
3762.200
4257.900
1078.000
29.000
30.000
728.500
1219.200
1188.000
3508.800
1501.500

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

160.50
141.00
245.50
181.30
46.10
1.00
0.00
23.10
12.90
41.40
65.00
122.40
93.10
172.00
115.70
128.20
51.90
0.00
0.00
8.70
2.60

5778.000
5217.000
9329.000
7070.700
1844.000
41.000
0.000
993.300
567.600
1863.000
2990.000
5752.800
4468.800
8428.000
5785.000
6538.200
2698.800
0.000
0.000
478.500
145.600

0.035x + 79.481
R = 0.0035

400

57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115

26.00
74.00
91.00
152.00
214.40
86.10
148.90
93.60
2.40
0.00
9.30
0.00
43.20
54.10
77.30
190.40
145.00
236.90
84.60
45.30
3.50
1.60
0.00
28.90
5.30
58.20
71.20
149.20
255.60
132.80
143.50
137.10
10.80
0.00
15.80
11.60
8.20
34.10
55.00
73.50
276.30
200.40
231.00
110.60
6.30
0.00
0.00
13.60
25.40
51.40
96.50
99.50
176.60
328.60
242.10
46.20
12.40
13.80
0.00

1482.000
4292.000
5369.000
9120.000
13078.400
5338.200
9380.700
5990.400
156.000
0.000
623.100
0.000
2980.800
3787.000
5488.300
13708.800
10585.000
17530.600
6345.000
3442.800
269.500
124.800
0.000
2312.000
429.300
4772.400
5909.600
12532.800
21726.000
11420.800
12484.500
12064.800
961.200
0.000
1437.800
1067.200
762.600
3205.400
5225.000
7056.000
26801.100
19639.200
22869.000
11060.000
636.300
0.000
0.000
1414.400
2667.000
5448.400
10325.500
10746.000
19249.400
36146.000
26873.100
5174.400
1401.200
1573.200
0.000

116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174

33.20
12.80
38.60
82.60
67.40
149.60
204.90
156.50
70.20
30.20
1.10
0.00
1.40
32.50
50.60
82.40
238.50
163.10
121.70
114.10
49.50
9.80
7.00
4.90
2.60
43.20
5.60
72.70
130.50
133.20
222.90
127.40
59.1
15.50
0.00
1.80
0.00
26.90
48.00
160.20
70.50
211.90
119.70
179.90
63.9
6.00
0.00
0.00
1.90
46.90
63.80
219.20
183.50
154.00
163.10
190.00
63.8
13.60
0.00

3851.200
1497.600
4554.800
9829.400
8088.000
18101.600
24997.800
19249.500
8704.800
3775.000
138.600
0.000
179.200
4192.500
6578.000
10794.400
31482.000
21692.300
16307.800
15403.500
6732.000
1342.600
966.000
681.100
364.000
6091.200
795.200
10396.100
18792.000
19314.000
32543.400
18727.800
8746.800
2309.500
0.000
271.800
0.000
4115.700
7392.000
24831.000
10998.000
33268.300
18912.600
28604.100
10224.000
966.000
0.000
0.000
311.600
7738.500
10590.800
36606.400
30828.000
26026.000
27727.000
32490.000
10973.600
2352.800
0.000

175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233

4.96
4.20
8.00
13.40
115.50
138.60
166.10
218.60
165.70
18.6
9.07
0.00
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
171.43
153.47
225.20
82
9.07
4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
267.50
68.10
132.10
82
4.80
0.00
0.00
11.50
22.80
82.00
173.90
58.40
28.70
54.90
62.20
66.1
2.50
1.00
0.00
12.90
5.50
27.30
28.10
65.90
171.43
153.47
141.36
64.26
9.07

868.000
739.200
1416.000
2385.200
20674.500
24948.000
30064.100
39785.200
30323.100
3422.400
1677.950
0.000
927.520
1723.960
5171.040
11223.300
18641.600
24236.160
33085.990
29773.180
43914.000
16072.000
1786.790
795.960
987.040
1834.000
5499.360
11932.140
19812.800
25750.920
54837.500
14028.600
27344.700
17056.000
1003.200
0.000
0.000
2438.000
4856.400
17548.000
37388.500
12614.400
6227.900
11968.200
13621.800
14542.000
552.500
222.000
0.000
2889.600
1237.500
6169.800
6378.700
15025.200
39257.470
35298.100
32654.160
14908.320
2113.310

234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292

4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
171.43
153.47
141.36
64.26
9.07
4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
171.43
153.47
141.36
64.26
9.07
4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
171.43
153.47
65.70
21.50
0.00
1.10
17.60
0.00
65.00
113.20
97.60
186.40
230.70
124.70
210.50
149.00
13.70
0.00
0.00
6.20
16.70
49.20
68.00
162.40
199.70
107.50
158.00
101.60

940.680
1165.600
2164.120
6484.320
14058.660
23326.400
30295.200
41314.630
37139.740
34350.480
15679.440
2222.150
988.920
1225.120
2274.160
6812.640
14767.500
24497.600
31809.960
43371.790
38981.380
36046.800
16450.560
2330.990
1037.160
1284.640
2384.200
7140.960
15476.340
25668.800
33324.720
45428.950
40823.020
17541.900
5762.000
0.000
297.000
4769.600
0.000
17745.000
31016.800
26840.000
51446.400
63903.900
34666.600
58729.500
41720.000
3849.700
0.000
0.000
1760.800
4759.500
14071.200
19516.000
46771.200
57713.300
31175.000
45978.000
29667.200

293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351

13.60
1.80
0.00
8.10
16.50
63.20
100.90
115.60
255.70
119.20
76.20
66.20
11.60
66.00
0.00
0.00
28.60
117.60
97.60
126.23
171.43
153.47
141.36
64.26
9.07
4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
80.00
101.30
67.60
10.80
1.20
3.40
1.40
9.40
15.40
67.10
112.60
58.00
264.50
70.40
78.70
61.20
9.07
2.80
6.90
3.00
24.40
33.30
90.60
133.40
85.10
185.20
133.90

3984.800
529.200
0.000
2397.600
4900.500
18833.600
30169.100
34680.000
76965.700
35998.400
23088.600
20124.800
3538.000
20196.000
0.000
0.000
8837.400
36456.000
30353.600
39383.760
53657.590
48189.580
44528.400
20306.160
2875.190
1278.360
1582.240
2934.400
8782.560
19020.540
31524.800
40898.520
26000.000
33023.800
22105.200
3542.400
394.800
1122.000
463.400
3120.800
5128.200
22411.400
37721.000
19488.000
89136.500
23795.200
26679.300
20808.000
3092.870
957.600
2366.700
1032.000
8418.000
11521.800
31438.200
46423.200
29699.900
64820.000
46998.900

352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408

82.80
3.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.80
35.00
79.70
89.20
110.60
118.40
83.20
51.30
9.07
4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
171.43
153.47
141.36
64.26
9.07
4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
171.43
153.47
141.36
64.26
9.07
4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23
171.43
153.47
141.36
64.26
9.07
4.02
4.96
9.17
27.36
59.07
97.60
126.23

29145.600
1164.900
0.000
0.000
0.000
3855.600
12530.000
28612.300
32112.000
39926.600
42860.800
30201.600
18673.200
3310.550
1471.320
1820.320
3374.560
10095.840
21855.900
36209.600
46957.560
63943.390
57397.780
53010.000
24161.760
3419.390
1519.560
1879.840
3484.600
10424.160
22564.740
37380.800
48472.320
66000.550
59239.420
54706.320
24932.880
3528.230
1567.800
1939.360
3594.640
10752.480
23273.580
38552.000
49987.080
68057.710
61081.060
56402.640
25704.000
3637.070
1616.040
1998.880
3704.680
11080.800
23982.420
39723.200
51501.840
5837368.940

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


La media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:
y = Ts =
Sy = STs =
N=

69.631 (Media de los datos)


14.563 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

17.5
9.958

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

1009.091

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)

R=

-1.444309167

Tc =

-4.65088025

El valor T calculado es:


Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
El valor T tabular es:
a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 32
Tt = 1.693

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
Bs = R*STs/St

Bs =

-2.112189236

As = Ts-Bs*t

As=

106.5947407

El valor As es:

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 53.5387122+0.17799905*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

Desviacin estandar anual

120
y = 0.1834x + 53.444
R = 0.0064
100
80

Desviacin estandar anual

60
40
20
0
0

10

15

20

Tiempo

25

30

35

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
DESVEST
t

ades y no necesita correccin.

d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

t*d
26.8493
18.5527
32.6985
59.4875
50.0376
80.8483
85.2434
44.5042
88.8746
61.1408
33.9987
44.4095
46.6518
69.3059
75.6716
74.9173
58.8775
97.6824
27.1727
42.0857
76.9054
45.4675
91.3118
78.1691
47.4651
49.9690
41.5907
17.3109
71.6496
102.7450
33.8835
43.1595
59.4907
48.0979

26.8493
37.1055
98.0956
237.9500
250.1878
485.0899
596.7037
356.0338
799.8712
611.4077
373.9860
532.9146
606.4740
970.2821
1135.0741
1198.6769
1000.9176
1758.2829
516.2814
841.7135
1615.0139
1000.2857
2100.1704
1876.0574
1186.6269
1299.1943
1122.9480
484.7059
2077.8374
3082.3494
1050.3896
1381.1050
1963.1930
1635.3280
34309.1023

y = 0.1834x + 53.444
R = 0.0064

35

40

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIAS EN LA ESTACION CAY CAY


TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

ENE
49.57
55.76
39.63
42.74
50.70
51.79
86.77
27.54
53.48
55.69
90.55
100.80
24.20
99.80
91.70
35.00
92.20
66.20
33.40
58.40
27.60
64.90
116.80
70.30
65.11
78.80
25.80
49.10
69.40
70.60
70.80
83.00
63.30
14.60

FEB
43.81
74.08
88.82
79.09
41.09
23.77
103.74
21.28
43.99
94.20
78.33
83.10
100.60
48.00
70.30
47.10
46.60
8.70
24.60
55.70
24.90
38.30
30.50
59.90
44.40
30.60
59.34
54.90
40.50
82.30
12.70
57.90
74.90
72.60

MAR
61.41
88.76
34.93
38.29
29.54
37.78
30.07
20.71
53.87
72.08
116.36
62.70
62.90
48.20
58.50
36.80
85.80
40.90
6.00
30.90
13.00
93.90
59.85
64.20
76.00
14.30
24.20
65.20
65.20
84.60
97.90
67.30
110.20
36.60

ABR
53.88
16.39
18.19
6.80
4.14
21.53
15.29
7.32
68.53
35.72
15.31
55.80
27.80
21.10
14.10
8.80
25.30
6.00
2.40
13.70
3.40
21.60
0.00
27.80
11.00
21.70
10.00
13.40
18.60
18.00
0.00
38.40
7.50
7.10

MAY
8.45
21.82
3.84
2.52
0.18
4.67
0.00
0.00
20.47
3.66
18.76
13.50
0.00
2.20
2.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.30
0.00
3.30
4.90
0.00
5.50
0.00
7.80
5.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.20
3.00
0.00

JUN
0.00
0.93
0.00
2.35
0.62
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.04
0.00
2.10
12.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.20
3.00
7.00
5.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
19.20
10.90
14.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.20

JUL
3.46
0.00
3.25
6.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.63
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.79
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

La media y desviacin estndar de los datos de precipitacin acumulada mensual son:


y = Tm =
Sy = STm =
N=

25.582 (Media de los datos)


29.269 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
408 (Nmero de aos de registro)

La media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:


t=
St =

204.5
117.924

El promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:


y*t =

5278.648

Clculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre los datos de precipitacin mensual y el tiempo
R = (t*Tm-t*Tm)/(St*STm)
El valor T calculado es:

R=

0.013672

AGO
0.31
2.33
7.09
5.96
0.88
0.00
0.00
30.05
8.86
15.83
4.73
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.70
0.00
0.00
2.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.03
0.00
2.20
0.00
10.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
11.70
3.50
4.50

SEP
41.58
4.12
9.91
9.74
5.20
5.45
0.00
0.00
11.37
0.00
18.68
17.30
41.30
5.60
2.00
0.00
7.60
2.00
7.35
0.00
4.20
7.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.30
0.00
12.00
0.00
0.00
6.80
0.00

OCT
15.76
14.60
9.22
6.38
17.99
21.61
0.00
0.00
12.23
8.04
8.93
2.00
7.90
0.00
2.80
11.30
30.50
34.40
2.30
47.40
5.10
5.80
8.70
8.50
17.80
33.00
6.70
24.60
2.20
33.20
6.20
25.80
15.00
6.50

Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2

Tc =

0.275518

El valor T tabular es:


a = 0.05
G.L.= N-2

G.L.= 406
Tt = 1.645

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la media no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
El parmetro Bm tiene el valor de:
Bm = R*STm/St

Bm =

0.003394

Am=

24.88772

El valor Am es:
Am = Tm-Bm*t

La ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la media es:


Tm = Am+Bm*t
Tm = 24.88772+0.003394*t

SERIE DE PRECIPITACION ACUMULADA MENSUAL


140.00
y = 0.0034x + 24.886
R = 0.0002

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

NOV
29.90
57.23
5.64
41.73
39.06
6.92
3.36
18.97
21.80
11.38
15.76
4.80
41.90
37.00
29.60
19.30
71.30
55.10
9.00
25.10
39.50
5.40
81.60
0.00
32.60
128.70
57.00
77.30
57.90
13.60
21.60
33.80
54.40
36.50

DIC
86.08
37.51
35.61
29.05
43.56
73.14
31.08
62.89
54.89
36.68
84.55
27.50
30.30
52.80
38.20
31.20
43.00
15.30
15.60
45.70
57.80
19.80
33.50
90.90
42.10
103.70
77.70
62.20
90.70
61.70
61.20
75.40
31.40
54.83

TOTAL DESVEST
394.21
27.74160393
373.53
30.91410987
256.12
25.40933566
270.77
23.91178996
232.97
20.00365316
246.65
23.3234217
270.32
36.07812796
188.76
18.93120333
356.15
23.57419633
333.27
31.61324227
454.05
41.70704137
379.80
35.04105384
339.30
30.58386755
314.70
31.58325578
309.50
32.11067391
189.50
17.46734399
410.00
33.90600197
233.59
23.54030612
108.95
10.41876146
286.70
23.01760031
184.50
18.37429652
261.95
29.81351403
330.95
39.17721269
331.13
33.93711167
289.01
27.46699486
442.20
43.0344999
277.44
26.86990276
373.50
28.5960304
346.50
33.89309731
376.00
33.97267173
270.40
34.266027
399.50
31.06270662
370.00
36.48993219
235.43
24.6076297

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION E

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

49.57
43.81
61.41
53.88
8.45
0.00
3.46
0.31
41.58
15.76
29.90
86.08
55.76
74.08
88.76
16.39
21.82
0.93
0.00
2.33
4.12
14.60
57.23
37.51
39.63
88.82
34.93
18.19
3.84
0.00
3.25
7.09
9.91
9.22
5.64

49.574
87.619
184.230
215.512
42.272
0.000
24.211
2.459
374.225
157.560
328.879
1032.982
724.845
1037.179
1331.419
262.168
370.965
16.774
0.000
46.594
86.432
321.187
1316.354
900.193
990.649
2309.236
943.081
509.330
111.448
0.000
100.602
226.824
326.914
313.592
197.276

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

35.61
42.74
79.09
38.29
6.80
2.52
2.35
6.13
5.96
9.74
6.38
41.73
29.05
50.70
41.09
29.54
4.14
0.18
0.62
0.00
0.88

1282.036
1581.206
3005.408
1493.133
272.028
103.270
98.736
263.548
262.289
438.268
293.522
1961.206
1394.397
2484.475
2054.597
1506.557
215.512
9.347
33.332
0.000
49.381

La media y desviacin estndar de l

La media y desviacin estndar del

El promedio del producto entre los d

Clculo del coeficiente de correlaci

El valor T calculado es:

El valor T tabular es:

Como Tc < Tt entonces la tendenci


El parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:

El valor As es:

La ecuacin que representa la tende

50
45

Desviacin estandar anual

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t
Precipitaciny*ty

40
35
30

0034x + 24.886

450

5.20
17.99
39.06
43.56
51.79
23.77
37.78
21.53
4.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.45
21.61
6.92
73.14
86.77
103.74
30.07
15.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.36
31.08
27.54
21.28
20.71
7.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.05
0.00
0.00
18.97
62.89
53.48
43.99
53.87
68.53
20.47
2.04
4.63
8.86
11.37
12.23
21.80
54.89
55.69
94.20
72.08
35.72
3.66
0.00
0.00

296.550
1043.347
2304.764
2613.659
3158.919
1474.030
2380.147
1377.721
303.451
0.000
0.000
0.000
375.813
1512.934
491.055
5266.047
6334.427
7676.846
2255.425
1161.901
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
278.883
2610.749
2341.159
1830.361
1801.373
644.084
0.000
0.000
0.000
2764.321
0.000
0.000
1802.336
6037.129
5187.341
4310.996
5333.111
6853.306
2067.048
207.952
476.517
921.511
1193.840
1296.639
2332.477
5928.032
6070.244
10361.580
8000.788
4000.792
413.540
0.000
0.000

Desviacin estandar anual

57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0

116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174

15.83
0.00
8.04
11.38
36.68
90.55
78.33
116.36
15.31
18.76
2.10
0.00
4.73
18.68
8.93
15.76
84.55
100.80
83.10
62.70
55.80
13.50
12.30
0.00
0.00
17.30
2.00
4.80
27.50
24.20
100.60
62.90
27.80
0.00
0.00
2.40
0.00
41.30
7.90
41.90
30.30
99.80
48.00
48.20
21.10
2.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.60
0.00
37.00
52.80
91.70
70.30
58.50
14.10
2.30
0.00

1836.507
0.000
948.167
1353.831
4401.126
10957.107
9555.724
14312.654
1897.820
2344.516
264.687
0.000
604.998
2409.863
1160.629
2063.925
11160.949
13406.400
11135.400
8464.500
7588.800
1849.500
1697.400
0.000
0.000
2439.300
284.000
686.400
3960.000
3509.000
14687.600
9246.300
4114.400
0.000
0.000
362.400
0.000
6318.900
1216.600
6494.500
4726.800
15668.600
7584.000
7663.800
3376.000
354.200
0.000
0.000
0.000
924.000
0.000
6179.000
8870.400
15497.300
11951.000
10003.500
2425.200
397.900
0.000

175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233

0.00
0.00
2.00
2.80
29.60
38.20
35.00
47.10
36.80
8.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.30
19.30
31.20
92.20
46.60
85.80
25.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.70
7.60
30.50
71.30
43.00
66.20
8.70
40.90
6.00
0.00
4.20
0.79
0.00
2.00
34.40
55.10
15.30
33.40
24.60
6.00
2.40
5.30
3.00
0.00
0.00
7.35
2.30
9.00
15.60
58.40
55.70
30.90
13.70
0.00

0.000
0.000
354.000
498.400
5298.400
6876.000
6335.000
8572.200
6734.400
1619.200
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
2147.000
3686.300
5990.400
17794.600
9040.400
16731.000
4958.800
0.000
0.000
0.000
1540.000
1527.600
6161.000
14473.900
8772.000
13571.000
1792.200
8466.300
1248.000
0.000
882.000
166.882
0.000
426.000
7361.600
11846.500
3304.800
7247.800
5362.800
1314.000
528.000
1171.300
666.000
0.000
0.000
1654.453
519.800
2043.000
3556.800
13373.600
12811.000
7137.900
3178.400
0.000

234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292

7.00
0.00
2.80
0.00
47.40
25.10
45.70
27.60
24.90
13.00
3.40
3.30
5.70
0.00
0.00
4.20
5.10
39.50
57.80
64.90
38.30
93.90
21.60
4.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.35
5.80
5.40
19.80
116.80
30.50
59.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.70
81.60
33.50
70.30
59.90
64.20
27.80
5.50
0.00
0.00
4.03
0.00
8.50
0.00
90.90
65.11
44.40
76.00
11.00

1638.000
0.000
660.800
0.000
11281.200
5998.900
10968.000
6651.600
6025.800
3159.000
829.600
808.500
1402.200
0.000
0.000
1045.800
1275.000
9914.500
14565.600
16419.700
9728.200
23944.500
5529.600
1259.300
0.000
0.000
0.000
1919.166
1519.600
1420.200
5227.200
30952.000
8113.000
15978.736
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
2383.800
22440.000
9246.000
19473.100
16652.200
17911.800
7784.000
1545.500
0.000
0.000
1143.745
0.000
2431.000
0.000
26179.200
18815.652
12876.000
22116.000
3212.000

293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
17.80
32.60
42.10
78.80
30.60
14.30
21.70
7.80
19.20
2.20
2.20
0.00
33.00
128.70
103.70
25.80
59.34
24.20
10.00
5.80
10.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.70
57.00
77.70
49.10
54.90
65.20
13.40
0.00
14.50
0.00
10.00
2.30
24.60
77.30
62.20
69.40
40.50
65.20
18.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.20
57.90
90.70
70.60
82.30
84.60

0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
5304.400
9747.400
12630.000
23718.800
9241.200
4332.900
6596.800
2379.000
5875.200
675.400
677.600
0.000
10230.000
40025.700
32354.400
8075.400
18633.521
7623.000
3160.000
1838.600
3466.200
0.000
0.000
0.000
2157.400
18411.000
25174.800
15957.500
17897.400
21320.400
4395.200
0.000
4785.000
0.000
3320.000
765.900
8216.400
25895.500
20899.200
23387.800
13689.000
22102.800
6324.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
688.000
0.000
761.200
20091.300
31563.600
24639.400
28805.000
29694.600

352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408

18.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.00
33.20
13.60
61.70
70.80
12.70
97.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.20
21.60
61.20
83.00
57.90
67.30
38.40
6.20
0.00
0.00
11.70
0.00
25.80
33.80
75.40
63.30
74.90
110.20
7.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
3.50
6.80
15.00
54.40
31.40
14.60
72.60
36.60
7.10
0.00
2.20
0.00
4.50
0.00
6.50
36.50
54.83

6336.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
4284.000
11885.600
4882.400
22212.000
25558.800
4597.400
35537.700
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
2294.000
8013.600
22766.400
30959.000
21654.600
25237.500
14438.400
2337.400
0.000
0.000
4446.000
0.000
9855.600
12945.400
28953.600
24370.500
28911.400
42647.400
2910.000
1167.000
0.000
0.000
1372.000
2672.400
5910.000
21488.000
12434.400
5796.200
28894.800
14603.400
2840.000
0.000
884.400
0.000
1818.000
0.000
2639.000
14855.500
22370.640
2153688.4

ENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

Ordenamiento cronolgico
Orden t DESVEST

a media y desviacin estndar de las desviaciones estandar anuales son:

d
1
y = Ts =
28.895 (Media de los datos)
2
Sy = STs =
7.242 (Desviacin estndar de los datos)
3
N=
34 (Nmero de aos de registro)
4
5
a media y desviacin estndar del tiempo en orden correlativo son:
6
7
t=
17.5
8
St =
9.958
9
10
l promedio del producto entre los datos y el tiempo es:
11
12
y*t =
522.369
13
14
lculo del coeficiente de correlacin entre las desviaciones estandar anuales y el tiempo
15
16
R = (t*Ts-t*Ts)/(St*STs)
R=
0.231581394
17
18
l valor T calculado es:
19
20
Tc = [R*(n-2)1/2]/[1-R2]1/2
Tc =
1.346629604
21
22
l valor T tabular es:
23
24
a = 0.05
25
G.L.= N-2
G.L.= 32
26
27
Tt = 1.693
28
29
omo Tc < Tt entonces la tendencia en la desviacin estandar no es significativa al 95% de probabilidades y no necesita correccin.
30
31
l parmetro Bs tiene el valor de:
32
33
Bs = R*STs/St
Bs =
0.168422365
34

As = Ts-Bs*t

As=

25.94785032

a ecuacin que representa la tendencia en la desviacin estandar es:


Ts = As+Bs*t
Ts = 25.94785032 +0.168422365*t

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

y = 0.1735x + 25.859
R = 0.0569

27.7416
30.9141
25.4093
23.9118
20.0037
23.3234
36.0781
18.9312
23.5742
31.6132
41.7070
35.0411
30.5839
31.5833
32.1107
17.4673
33.9060
23.5403
10.4188
23.0176
18.3743
29.8135
39.1772
33.9371
27.4670
43.0345
26.8699
28.5960
33.8931
33.9727
34.2660
31.0627
36.4899
24.6076

10

15

20

Tiempo

25

30

35

40

miento cronolgico
t*d
27.7416
61.8282
76.2280
95.6472
100.0183
139.9405
252.5469
151.4496
212.1678
316.1324
458.7775
420.4926
397.5903
442.1656
481.6601
279.4775
576.4020
423.7255
197.9565
460.3520
385.8602
655.8973
901.0759
814.4907
686.6749
1118.8970
725.4874
800.6889
982.8998
1019.1802
1062.2468
994.0066
1204.1678
836.6594
17760.5329

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


100

DESVIACION ESTANDAR

90
80
70
60

DESVIACION ESTANDAR

60
50
40
30
0

10

15

20
TIEMPO

25

ON ESTANDAR
y = 0.0093x + 63.633
R = 7E-05

30

35

40

BOLETIN DE LA ESTACION METEREOLOGICA DE LA U.N.S.A.A.C.

ESTACION
PARAMETRO

AO
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Promedio

PERAYOC/S-608/DRE-12
PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)

LATITUD
LONGITUD
ALTITUD

1331' "S"
7157' "W'
3365 msnm

ENE
106.35
141.30
65.75
170.40
199.85
150.05
130.00
169.95
228.55
130.35
119.70
158.10
114.30
249.40
165.00
97.90
218.10
205.90
154.30
219.85
121.90
103.20
311.60
228.80
213.40
309.40
117.10
154.80
251.90
196.40
127.00
169.00
137.20
155.30

FEB
154.27
195.30
114.40
135.15
116.10
97.35
128.30
74.70
137.75
228.80
159.70
73.70
241.50
63.60
128.80
141.70
73.00
118.70
96.40
172.80
143.00
114.10
106.00
144.50
147.40
89.40
236.40
142.10
123.20
220.90
90.60
87.40
104.70
163.20

MAR
147.10
89.65
128.40
69.80
107.00
94.90
92.70
58.40
141.85
130.00
107.50
155.70
80.80
83.50
170.10
96.90
119.20
159.50
60.80
88.60
123.50
154.80
81.20
250.50
198.50
62.50
152.00
95.60
93.20
232.60
137.80
48.60
145.70
54.30

ABR
81.95
17.30
15.65
25.70
18.85
95.55
38.10
40.70
96.95
61.60
71.00
48.20
60.90
37.50
36.90
34.10
69.20
67.90
23.80
82.10
64.20
95.40
35.10
40.90
54.70
105.90
44.80
18.50
34.50
60.50
26.10
28.90
70.90
34.80

MAY
11.60
21.85
3.30
1.35
0.30
5.30
1.70
0.80
18.10
15.80
30.30
22.90
3.90
6.70
21.50
7.40
0.60
0.00
8.60
0.20
19.10
6.80
5.90
4.00
4.10
11.80
14.10
1.00
3.40
15.20
1.70
9.70
3.20
3.80

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.40
5.15
3.40
6.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
14.30
1.40
7.10
0.20
0.00
0.00
2.10
4.20
1.40
36.05
6.80
17.90
0.00
13.60
0.00
14.90
33.70
7.90
6.50
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
3.40

JUL
4.25
0.00
12.90
39.17
10.20
6.60
0.30
9.29
10.70
3.10
0.00
0.90
0.20
1.00
5.90
2.40
0.00
3.80
0.70
0.20
3.10
3.30
14.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
21.50
1.80
0.00
3.10
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
5.20
1.10
31.50
6.95
0.30
2.40
8.10
20.50
15.90
37.00
0.10
9.00
2.70
0.00
17.30
0.40
12.40
9.80
0.00
19.30
6.10
10.60
0.00
0.00
6.30
6.80
0.00
33.50
22.70
0.00
0.00
9.80
11.10
6.20

SEP
43.75
42.40
26.40
20.10
16.75
43.35
0.00
37.35
6.60
21.90
40.50
59.00
39.10
12.70
12.40
7.70
46.70
58.00
2.30
21.80
39.10
10.80
13.00
19.40
15.50
18.30
31.60
9.10
6.90
21.00
52.00
16.00
13.40
2.20

OCT
37.10
85.95
72.60
32.91
27.90
37.40
53.20
5.50
29.90
45.60
48.20
15.50
65.10
9.70
22.60
96.20
105.00
68.00
37.50
126.05
70.30
35.60
60.50
37.90
92.80
105.90
116.60
68.70
97.40
44.50
20.10
61.20
35.50
84.90

170.36

134.26

118.04

51.15

8.41

5.54

4.69

9.21

24.33

57.47

DPTO
PROV
DIST

CUSCO
CUSCO
CUSCO

NOV
60.53
58.55
72.55
94.45
73.90
34.40
44.40
67.60
101.75
42.25
42.10
56.20
170.80
161.20
131.70
66.60
112.10
171.90
60.35
82.60
128.10
115.10
121.20
57.70
72.40
109.10
104.80
124.90
100.90
64.20
27.50
66.00
138.40
70.60

DIC
185.35
47.85
135.00
88.10
86.60
213.60
147.60
102.95
91.65
121.40
152.20
103.00
66.70
124.30
137.30
67.50
133.90
150.40
172.40
110.20
146.40
87.50
164.90
154.50
72.50
105.70
116.20
66.60
220.00
165.00
124.00
168.00
178.70
69.40

88.44

125.81

TOTAL Total acumulado


837.45
837.45
701.25
1538.70
678.85
2217.55
689.23
2906.78
661.15
3567.93
786.90
4354.83
645.90
5000.73
587.74
5588.47
879.70
6468.17
852.10
7320.27
772.70
8092.97
709.30
8802.27
846.20
9648.47
749.60
10398.07
849.50
11247.57
620.90
11868.47
894.40
12762.87
1015.30
13778.17
653.20
14431.37
930.50
15361.87
882.70
16244.57
737.20
16981.77
927.20
17908.97
938.20
18847.17
892.50
19739.67
958.50
20698.17
942.50
21640.67
742.80
22383.47
955.90
23339.37
1020.30
24359.67
610.20
24969.87
664.60
25634.47
838.80
26473.27
648.10
27121.37
797.69

SENAMHI
OFICINA GENERAL DE ESTADISTICA E INFORMATICA
ESTACION
PARAMETRO
TIPO DE EST:
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Promedio

KAYRA/CP-607/DRE-12
PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)
CLIMATOLOGICA PRINCIPAL

LATITUD
LONGITUD
ALTITUD

1334' "S"
7154' "W'
3219 msnm

ENE
98.00
95.00
65.70
135.40
144.40
190.60
128.90
192.10
221.20
102.50
124.70
119.60
116.70
175.40
101.10
106.20
225.40
178.90
128.40
198.60
129.10
76.40
223.30
163.80
151.40
168.00
90.10
107.10
206.70
177.20
122.00
131.90
123.30
116.90

FEB
102.00
161.10
117.90
118.30
77.80
121.50
161.60
66.80
120.50
157.70
131.00
83.10
122.80
124.70
131.60
126.40
80.80
115.50
84.00
142.40
119.40
86.20
88.40
84.30
126.80
90.40
163.60
102.40
104.50
163.90
94.80
98.00
127.70
176.10

MAR
112.40
98.30
140.90
85.00
88.30
132.50
83.60
57.20
99.60
121.50
55.30
123.10
69.30
88.50
108.80
135.00
124.40
143.10
54.50
71.00
74.20
125.70
48.60
166.50
119.30
60.70
105.20
104.00
76.20
173.90
94.40
70.50
104.80
22.60

ABR
88.00
18.30
19.00
34.60
16.80
86.40
40.00
29.70
75.20
34.50
66.80
42.90
47.60
48.70
46.80
23.20
57.20
58.80
23.50
82.80
33.20
65.50
13.10
108.90
39.60
47.40
49.60
14.90
19.60
45.50
17.80
32.30
31.00
31.00

MAY
5.80
19.80
1.80
6.30
2.90
2.30
1.50
3.40
14.00
3.60
22.50
13.00
7.90
11.40
6.20
3.70
1.80
0.00
3.40
0.00
15.60
6.20
2.10
4.60
9.40
7.50
11.00
0.00
46.60
11.80
0.00
11.00
4.80
1.60

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.60
5.30
3.30
1.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
8.20
0.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.90
9.20
6.20
1.30
11.60
0.00
1.30
0.00
9.10
31.80
5.10
19.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.90

JUL
0.40
0.00
11.00
30.90
7.20
3.70
0.00
6.50
9.10
1.00
0.30
0.70
4.40
3.40
0.90
5.30
0.00
3.40
0.50
1.30
0.90
1.80
9.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.70
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
1.00
1.70
19.00
8.60
3.90
3.40
5.70
27.30
11.80
34.60
0.60
2.50
0.00
0.00
8.10
0.60
9.80
4.90
0.90
11.40
0.00
4.20
0.00
0.00
6.10
5.80
0.00
21.40
6.90
0.00
1.20
6.30
7.10
1.60

SEP
30.60
31.90
32.10
16.30
22.80
42.10
3.50
12.20
14.50
5.90
51.10
26.80
29.90
13.70
11.50
12.60
45.90
14.00
5.50
4.20
43.30
7.50
8.20
9.90
30.70
12.80
21.40
8.00
18.00
25.70
28.80
19.60
12.30
6.80

OCT
58.30
59.70
70.50
30.10
29.80
46.10
55.70
7.90
65.10
43.30
47.50
25.30
65.00
12.30
18.40
62.90
108.90
37.90
26.00
114.60
60.80
17.30
26.50
36.20
48.70
73.70
49.30
50.70
46.20
40.20
26.70
58.40
44.40
38.30

142.24

116.88

98.20

43.83

7.75

3.79

3.14

6.36

20.00

47.14

DPTO
PROV
DIST

CUSCO
CUSCO
SAN JERONIMO

NOV
41.00
63.70
57.20
54.70
54.70
48.20
51.00
50.20
88.80
60.90
51.00
47.80
71.50
86.70
85.60
60.20
120.80
122.50
44.30
69.40
116.50
69.60
101.80
47.60
60.70
93.80
72.20
117.40
111.90
40.50
70.20
49.00
200.40
45.20

DIC
129.70
64.50
125.60
72.90
72.90
177.40
127.50
100.20
96.50
108.00
170.10
66.80
78.00
118.00
81.80
83.10
144.30
98.60
100.50
103.10
122.40
102.70
107.60
113.70
88.50
66.50
112.00
57.00
201.50
116.60
102.60
133.20
148.40
58.90

74.32

107.39

TOTAL Total acumulado


667.20
667.20
614.00
1281.20
661.30
1942.50
598.40
2540.90
524.80
3065.70
855.20
3920.90
659.10
4580.00
553.50
5133.50
816.30
5949.80
681.70
6631.50
721.60
7353.10
560.30
7913.40
613.10
8526.50
682.80
9209.30
600.80
9810.10
619.20
10429.30
923.20
11352.50
786.80
12139.30
477.70
12617.00
800.10
13417.10
727.00
14144.10
563.10
14707.20
630.10
15337.30
735.50
16072.80
690.30
16763.10
658.40
17421.50
681.00
18102.50
602.30
18704.80
840.80
19545.60
795.30
20340.90
559.10
20900.00
610.20
21510.20
804.20
22314.40
500.90
22815.30
671.04

SENAMHI
OFICINA GENERAL DE ESTADISTICA E INFORMATICA
ESTACION
PARAMETRO
TIPO DE EST:
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Promedio

PARURO/CP-683/DRE-12
PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)
CLIMATOLOGICA ORDINARIA

LATITUD
LONGITUD
ALTITUD

1346' "S"
7151' "W'
3084 msnm

ENE
120.20
71.70
108.40
493.50
527.00
89.60
132.40
204.80
251.40
177.30
158.70
154.60
112.30
229.90
234.90
179.70
173.20
59.80
199.50
199.50
199.50
199.50
361.20
160.30
216.50
199.50
199.50
199.50
199.50
202.00
165.00
218.00
207.00
177.50

FEB
119.80
209.30
407.90
516.40
443.70
79.80
156.90
90.80
241.80
205.50
187.80
106.30
170.00
87.00
136.00
112.40
158.80
40.40
169.34
169.34
169.34
169.34
75.20
87.90
122.50
169.34
169.34
169.34
169.34
163.00
72.00
110.00
152.50
149.20

MAR
172.10
96.90
344.60
314.90
455.30
115.00
77.60
98.10
149.70
254.90
116.80
117.60
175.90
223.40
164.06
72.80
205.50
24.40
164.06
164.06
164.06
164.06
91.00
164.06
203.60
164.06
164.06
164.06
164.06
166.00
126.00
95.30
173.50
66.50

ABR
54.60
13.20
22.20
0.00
16.30
53.80
47.50
41.90
61.00
62.00
56.20
56.60
60.00
45.80
41.22
6.60
34.50
4.00
41.22
41.22
41.22
41.22
66.00
41.22
11.30
41.22
41.22
41.22
35.40
88.00
14.00
71.30
67.00
41.22

MAY
2.00
22.70
3.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
23.60
0.80
30.10
14.30
3.00
11.60
6.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.59
6.59
6.59
6.59
0.00
6.59
0.00
6.59
6.59
6.59
0.00
12.00
0.00
14.40
13.00
4.20

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.20
1.50
2.80
0.00
0.00
10.20
4.20
4.20
0.00
4.80
1.58
0.00
4.00
1.58
1.58
1.58
1.58
1.58
0.00
1.58
0.00
1.58
1.58
1.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00

JUL
0.00
0.00
0.00
21.50
0.00
14.80
0.00
8.80
9.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.60
0.00
3.51
3.51
0.00
3.51
3.51
3.51
3.51
3.51
16.00
3.51
0.00
3.51
3.51
3.51
0.00
1.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
0.00
3.90
18.30
4.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
18.70
13.30
36.80
2.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.00
6.73
6.73
6.73
6.73
6.73
0.00
0.00
6.73
6.73
6.73
6.73
5.00
1.00
0.00
33.50
12.50
1.50

SEP
20.00
39.70
8.20
25.40
0.00
40.20
8.40
28.00
31.10
8.50
28.10
38.00
56.40
48.70
7.00
14.40
26.40
20.67
20.67
20.67
20.67
0.00
6.40
1.60
20.67
20.67
20.67
20.67
18.00
28.00
24.00
26.10
4.00
0.70

OCT
24.30
65.00
77.90
46.70
10.20
50.80
48.00
28.20
40.50
49.20
62.70
23.20
75.50
16.80
13.40
42.40
42.40
45.35
45.35
45.35
45.35
2.00
18.20
3.30
45.35
45.35
45.35
45.35
57.00
92.00
34.00
76.30
68.50
110.50

199.50

169.34

164.06

41.22

6.59

1.58

3.51

6.73

20.67

45.35

DPTO
PROV
DIST

CUSCO
PARURO
PARURO

NOV
32.30
118.50
46.50
190.10
87.50
59.40
48.70
57.30
112.20
97.70
96.90
81.60
106.60
129.80
78.20
116.20
41.00
93.50
93.50
93.50
93.50
90.00
191.90
52.60
93.50
93.50
93.50
93.50
90.50
112.00
38.00
80.90
180.00
94.50

DIC
167.40
86.80
253.00
95.80
223.80
251.50
141.60
107.80
89.70
83.90
218.90
120.70
63.20
114.90
94.60
162.80
45.40
140.98
140.98
140.98
140.98
171.60
171.40
41.30
140.98
140.98
140.98
140.98
239.00
160.00
152.00
181.00
125.50
102.00

93.50

140.98

TOTAL Total acumulado


712.70
712.70
727.70
1440.40
1290.00
2730.40
1708.30
4438.70
1767.00
6205.70
766.40
6972.10
663.90
7636.00
689.40
8325.40
1023.30
9348.70
986.80
10335.50
962.40
11297.90
717.90
12015.80
825.50
12841.30
912.70
13754.00
781.05
14535.05
710.81
15245.86
743.20
15989.06
440.91
16429.97
893.01
17322.99
893.01
18216.00
893.01
19109.01
856.12
19965.13
997.30
20962.43
563.95
21526.38
861.12
22387.51
893.01
23280.52
893.01
24173.54
893.01
25066.55
977.80
26044.35
1025.00
27069.35
632.00
27701.35
906.80
28608.15
1003.50
29611.65
750.82
30362.46
893.01

SENAMHI
OFICINA GENERAL DE ESTADISTICA E INFORMATICA
ESTACION
PARAMETRO
TIPO DE EST
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Promedio

ANTA /CO-684/DRE-12
PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)
CLIMATOLOGICA ORDINARIA

LATITUD
LONGITUD
ALTITUD

1330' "S"
7210' "W'
3340 msnm

ENE
130.70
104.00
62.40
111.80
148.40
163.50
159.80
207.20
219.60
146.40
107.60
143.70
118.40
172.20
80.00
98.00
156.50
236.70
165.51
165.51
45.90
101.90
189.70
223.30
191.30
133.40
47.60
130.60
145.10
588.00
194.70
414.50
159.60
163.70

FEB
134.40
115.40
120.60
136.80
104.20
126.40
151.60
52.20
191.20
186.70
198.20
112.10
127.30
93.20
123.00
116.00
101.60
148.80
148.30
148.30
83.00
152.10
83.30
138.50
97.60
64.30
180.70
136.00
428.70
379.20
47.50
359.50
126.90
128.60

MAR
106.50
52.90
164.40
110.00
159.20
95.60
94.60
150.70
107.20
143.00
89.20
138.80
113.30
142.80
140.00
154.60
148.50
131.62
131.62
131.62
57.00
116.30
72.60
254.70
136.40
24.60
123.00
40.80
106.40
398.80
224.90
122.80
158.90
131.60

ABR
71.50
36.00
53.00
31.80
29.80
77.80
36.20
42.60
72.60
60.80
79.50
52.40
51.00
43.50
49.40
15.40
113.50
44.06
44.06
44.06
16.50
44.80
0.00
93.60
30.20
32.00
27.50
18.80
35.90
49.10
19.90
29.20
25.90
25.70

MAY
4.50
22.50
10.40
3.00
0.00
1.40
1.00
0.60
12.00
9.20
13.00
11.00
4.20
13.20
8.80
4.00
5.70
7.26
7.26
7.26
0.00
18.70
0.00
0.00
27.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.80
32.50
1.80
4.80
8.80
0.00

JUN
0.00
4.20
2.10
2.00
3.20
0.00
0.10
0.00
2.80
17.80
1.40
10.40
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
2.00
4.20
4.20
4.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
36.60
21.50
16.80
0.00
0.00
5.20
0.60
0.00
3.40

JUL
1.00
5.01
17.00
35.00
9.40
3.00
0.00
12.20
10.40
0.00
0.00
27.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
5.01
5.01
5.01
0.00
0.00
33.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.00

AGO
0.00
5.00
12.60
8.40
0.00
0.00
9.80
27.60
8.70
41.20
1.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
6.60
2.20
10.70
7.07
7.07
7.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.40
16.60
0.00
7.07
22.80
0.30
0.00
13.30
15.50
0.30

SEP
0.00
48.50
2.00
21.60
24.60
44.60
1.40
19.80
17.20
10.80
27.00
29.00
20.40
16.50
12.00
2.40
24.50
17.64
17.64
17.64
23.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.10
15.00
4.40
17.64
58.40
39.50
22.80
18.80
7.10
11.80

OCT
31.00
89.50
87.10
34.80
28.00
56.00
66.40
12.60
26.00
29.00
28.00
9.20
84.40
7.40
22.00
76.80
86.30
51.69
51.69
51.69
52.80
24.80
25.20
8.10
26.70
122.40
44.60
51.69
192.40
87.00
15.60
44.00
67.50
65.00

165.51

148.30

131.62

44.06

7.26

4.20

5.01

7.07

17.64

51.69

DPTO
PROV
DIST

CUSCO
ANTA
ZURITE

NOV
78.50
109.00
80.40
164.20
109.60
80.40
71.80
78.30
101.20
38.40
51.00
48.00
175.00
103.00
95.60
92.00
78.90
96.42
96.42
65.00
128.30
52.50
100.60
43.00
54.80
86.80
96.42
96.42
218.40
186.00
94.60
87.30
165.30
54.80

DIC
156.00
46.90
107.00
107.00
110.50
209.40
149.50
126.80
118.80
101.20
207.20
90.00
125.10
104.60
113.60
93.80
105.70
150.48
150.48
150.48
137.70
80.80
165.00
107.30
41.70
36.60
69.00
150.48
566.60
255.70
313.70
234.00
360.80
72.40

96.42

150.48

TOTAL Total acumulado


714.10
714.10
638.91
1353.01
719.00
2072.01
766.40
2838.41
726.90
3565.31
858.10
4423.41
742.20
5165.61
730.60
5896.21
887.70
6783.91
784.50
7568.41
803.10
8371.51
671.60
9043.11
824.10
9867.21
696.60
10563.81
651.00
11214.81
656.20
11871.01
833.90
12704.91
900.95
13605.86
829.25
14435.11
797.83
15232.94
544.20
15777.14
591.90
16369.04
669.80
17038.84
868.50
17907.34
616.50
18523.84
568.30
19092.14
614.72
19706.87
666.30
20373.16
1781.50
22154.66
2016.10
24170.76
941.30
25112.06
1329.00
26441.06
1096.30
27537.36
657.30
28194.66
829.25

ESTACION
PARAMETRO

AO
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Promedio

PERAYOC/S-608/DRE-12
PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)

LATITUD
LONGITUD
ALTITUD

1331' "S"
7157' "W'
3365 msnm

ENE
102.90
110.50
82.80
56.60
114.50
126.90
94.80
154.30
205.50
124.40
145.90
201.00
77.70
167.10
137.00
120.00
256.00
168.40
150.80
360.40
124.80
206.90
197.50
131.60
143.40
158.90
77.00
77.00
256.00
198.20
145.90
150.80
150.80
150.80

FEB
170.50
184.00
106.00
72.50
83.70
69.40
127.40
68.00
78.50
153.90
179.40
200.00
236.50
62.10
112.00
184.00
91.10
160.40
82.40
252.70
90.80
144.60
78.80
72.10
80.40
89.80
139.50
121.30
78.80
203.80
89.30
124.64
124.64
124.64

MAR
158.70
79.60
134.00
47.40
80.80
92.40
46.90
54.10
127.10
138.20
126.30
106.00
53.20
70.10
134.00
165.70
153.20
186.40
46.10
55.00
94.50
206.70
69.10
190.40
127.60
68.50
87.00
76.00
94.50
186.00
108.52
108.52
108.52
108.52

ABR
77.60
12.30
16.10
19.70
9.60
68.90
32.70
36.70
91.00
72.20
115.00
35.00
35.40
41.20
43.83
34.00
0.00
28.60
8.30
49.00
61.60
78.70
20.00
47.00
43.83
99.80
45.80
32.00
2.60
56.50
43.83
43.83
43.83
43.83

MAY
11.00
25.20
1.80
0.40
5.00
13.50
0.00
0.00
4.00
8.00
26.60
12.00
0.00
6.60
17.00
9.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13.50
5.70
2.30
6.60
2.30
7.10
5.50
0.00
14.50
10.00
6.92
6.92
6.92
6.92

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.60
5.20
3.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
7.10
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.80
7.60
0.00
4.20
0.00
17.10
27.90
6.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.21
3.21
3.21
3.21

JUL
1.00
0.00
9.00
42.20
9.30
2.20
0.00
3.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.40
2.00
6.20
12.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.77
3.77
3.77
3.77

AGO
1.00
0.80
23.70
7.40
0.00
0.60
1.70
24.20
18.00
32.20
4.20
3.00
0.00
0.00
15.50
0.00
6.00
16.00
0.00
24.00
8.00
15.30
0.00
0.00
10.00
9.20
0.00
15.30
5.60
0.00
8.06
8.06
8.06
8.06

SEP
44.20
29.70
25.20
10.20
15.90
22.00
0.00
18.00
16.50
5.00
9.60
72.00
25.40
1.00
2.50
0.00
19.00
22.00
2.00
15.30
44.60
29.80
17.10
28.90
16.20
23.60
19.52
32.00
6.50
12.00
19.52
19.52
19.52
19.52

OCT
59.40
78.30
78.90
36.10
22.10
21.50
49.10
11.30
22.00
25.60
37.10
27.50
38.80
19.00
16.00
82.00
84.40
67.20
20.00
107.80
79.20
35.70
25.20
14.70
55.10
97.80
47.60
84.40
76.40
38.60
48.63
48.63
48.63
48.63

150.80

124.64

108.52

43.83

6.92

3.21

3.77

8.06

19.52

48.63

DPTO
PROV
DIST

CUSCO
CUSCO
CUSCO

NOV
63.00
62.00
51.60
50.50
42.70
36.20
44.40
66.20
74.40
37.60
49.80
37.70
84.30
128.00
148.00
89.10
95.50
104.90
61.10
94.20
140.80
58.00
68.50
75.80
58.80
90.10
100.70
140.80
103.00
71.90
77.65
77.65
77.65
77.65

DIC
186.70
40.40
89.40
41.50
73.10
191.60
125.50
147.40
80.30
123.20
130.00
117.50
50.20
126.00
158.50
73.90
120.50
63.60
111.61
115.50
199.70
57.60
85.30
101.60
35.90
73.50
121.70
199.70
180.00
127.00
111.61
111.61
111.61
111.61

77.65

111.61

TOTAL Total acumulado


876.00
876.00
622.80
1498.80
619.10
2117.90
389.70
2507.60
460.20
2967.80
645.20
3613.00
522.50
4135.50
583.70
4719.20
718.30
5437.50
732.30
6169.80
823.90
6993.70
818.80
7812.50
601.50
8414.00
623.10
9037.10
789.33
9826.43
759.70
10586.13
825.70
11411.83
817.50
12229.33
482.31
12711.64
1091.10
13802.74
867.10
14669.84
845.20
15515.04
580.70
16095.74
668.70
16764.44
590.63
17355.07
746.20
18101.27
653.12
18754.40
778.50
19532.90
817.90
20350.80
904.00
21254.80
666.92
21921.72
707.15
22628.87
707.15
23336.02
707.15
24043.18
707.15

SENAMHI
OFICINA GENERAL DE ESTADISTICA E INFORMATICA
ESTACION
PARAMETRO
TIPO DE EST:
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Promedio

CAY CAY/PLU-6205/DRE-12
PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)
PLUVIOMETRICA

LATITUD
LONGITUD
ALTITUD

1336' "S"
7142' "W'
3100 msnm

ENE
64.50
71.80
46.40
50.90
57.50
59.90
103.30
28.60
68.20
70.00
120.70
100.80
24.20
99.80
91.70
35.00
92.20
66.20
33.40
58.40
27.60
64.90
116.80
70.30
65.11
78.80
25.80
49.10
69.40
70.60
70.80
83.00
63.30
14.60

FEB
57.00
95.40
104.00
94.20
46.60
27.50
123.50
22.10
56.10
118.40
104.40
83.10
100.60
48.00
70.30
47.10
46.60
8.70
24.60
55.70
24.90
38.30
30.50
59.90
44.40
30.60
59.34
54.90
40.50
82.30
12.70
57.90
74.90
72.60

MAR
79.90
114.30
40.90
45.60
33.50
43.70
35.80
21.50
68.70
90.60
155.10
62.70
62.90
48.20
58.50
36.80
85.80
40.90
6.00
30.90
13.00
93.90
59.85
64.20
76.00
14.30
24.20
65.20
65.20
84.60
97.90
67.30
110.20
36.60

ABR
70.10
21.10
21.30
8.10
4.70
24.90
18.20
7.60
87.40
44.90
20.40
55.80
27.80
21.10
14.10
8.80
25.30
6.00
2.40
13.70
3.40
21.60
0.00
27.80
11.00
21.70
10.00
13.40
18.60
18.00
0.00
38.40
7.50
7.10

MAY
11.00
28.10
4.50
3.00
0.20
5.40
0.00
0.00
26.10
4.60
25.00
13.50
0.00
2.20
2.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.30
0.00
3.30
4.90
0.00
5.50
0.00
7.80
5.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.20
3.00
0.00

JUN
0.00
1.20
0.00
2.80
0.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.60
0.00
2.80
12.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.20
3.00
7.00
5.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
19.20
10.90
14.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.20

JUL
4.50
0.00
3.80
7.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.79
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
0.40
3.00
8.30
7.10
1.00
0.00
0.00
31.20
11.30
19.90
6.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.70
0.00
0.00
2.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.03
0.00
2.20
0.00
10.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
11.70
3.50
4.50

SEP
54.10
5.30
11.60
11.60
5.90
6.30
0.00
0.00
14.50
0.00
24.90
17.30
41.30
5.60
2.00
0.00
7.60
2.00
7.35
0.00
4.20
7.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.30
0.00
12.00
0.00
0.00
6.80
0.00

OCT
20.50
18.80
10.80
7.60
20.40
25.00
0.00
0.00
15.60
10.10
11.90
2.00
7.90
0.00
2.80
11.30
30.50
34.40
2.30
47.40
5.10
5.80
8.70
8.50
17.80
33.00
6.70
24.60
2.20
33.20
6.20
25.80
15.00
6.50

65.11

59.34

59.85

20.65

4.93

2.62

0.79

4.03

7.35

14.07

DPTO
PROV
DIST

CUSCO
PAUCARTAMBO
CAY CAY

NOV
38.90
73.70
6.60
49.70
44.30
8.00
4.00
19.70
27.80
14.30
21.00
4.80
41.90
37.00
29.60
19.30
71.30
55.10
9.00
25.10
39.50
5.40
81.60
0.00
32.60
128.70
57.00
77.30
57.90
13.60
21.60
33.80
54.40
36.50

DIC
112.00
48.30
41.70
34.60
49.40
84.60
37.00
65.30
70.00
46.10
112.70
27.50
30.30
52.80
38.20
31.20
43.00
15.30
15.60
45.70
57.80
19.80
33.50
90.90
42.10
103.70
77.70
62.20
90.70
61.70
61.20
75.40
31.40
54.83

36.50

54.83

TOTAL Total acumulado


512.90
512.90
481.00
993.90
299.90
1293.80
322.50
1616.30
264.20
1880.50
285.30
2165.80
321.80
2487.60
196.00
2683.60
454.20
3137.80
418.90
3556.70
605.20
4161.90
379.80
4541.70
339.30
4881.00
314.70
5195.70
309.50
5505.20
189.50
5694.70
410.00
6104.70
233.59
6338.29
108.95
6447.24
286.70
6733.94
184.50
6918.44
261.95
7180.40
330.95
7511.34
331.13
7842.47
289.01
8131.48
442.20
8573.68
277.44
8851.12
373.50
9224.62
346.50
9571.12
376.00
9947.12
270.40
10217.52
399.50
10617.02
370.00
10987.02
235.43
11222.45
330.07

SENAMHI
OFICINA GENERAL DE ESTADISTICA E INFORMATICA
ESTACION
PARAMETRO
TIPO DE EST:
AOS
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Promedio

PISAC/PLU-6304/DRE-12
PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)
CLIMATOLOGICA ORDINARIA

LATITUD
LONGITUD
ALTITUD

1324' "S"
7146' "W'
2900 msnm

ENE
54.50
64.00
51.00
122.70
138.30
150.30
155.30
101.80
267.20
131.70
80.60
133.00
86.50
212.70
210.60
92.80
97.90
276.40
5.10
98.40
140.60
27.70
276.30
95.40
116.30
76.70
76.20
81.00
178.90
166.80
98.70
117.60
82.70
126.30

FEB
38.60
28.70
78.90
180.20
65.90
279.70
291.20
53.30
205.10
177.40
101.30
53.20
112.50
151.80
163.40
182.20
178.30
68.40
31.10
113.48
205.50
116.60
45.90
99.60
94.80
45.60
101.80
45.40
75.90
125.00
79.50
69.30
99.90
98.70

MAR
63.00
27.20
96.00
32.00
137.20
48.60
80.70
136.50
141.00
130.10
83.80
123.70
69.40
117.00
179.40
226.80
89.70
236.20
100.48
100.48
194.50
134.60
24.60
191.40
111.40
20.30
64.50
31.70
12.40
151.60
80.00
44.40
97.60
38.20

ABR
51.00
5.00
0.00
13.30
75.60
57.30
58.30
25.90
60.60
50.70
44.10
39.10
34.3
81.5
59.3
89.7
31.4
195.6
29.8
46.45
64.30
38.50
13.30
52.40
25.90
82.60
31.40
22.60
38.20
59.80
7.20
69.30
3.30
21.60

MAY
0.00
18.10
13.00
1.00
0.00
7.30
4.10
4.10
9.50
4.10
44.60
49.50
0.00
31.10
7.10
2.00
7.30
25.50
0.00
9.48
8.30
12.50
0.00
2.00
7.00
6.20
11.50
0.00
8.20
5.30
4.20
12.10
2.90
4.20

JUN
0.00
0.00
2.30
5.20
16.50
6.30
5.90
0.00
9.70
11.40
5.10
3.20
0.00
0.00
8.00
0.00
4.2
8.00
2.00
5.45
0.00
0.00
14.60
0.00
0.00
38.40
8.00
24.00
4.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00

JUL
2.50
2.00
17.10
17.90
13.00
7.20
2.10
7.40
12.80
1.00
0.50
2.10
4.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
15.50
1.00
11.10
4.41
0.00
2.10
9.10
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

AGO
0.00
0.00
9.90
0.20
4.10
5.10
9.10
13.10
13.40
27.80
0.00
2.00
4.10
0.00
2.00
11.30
3.00
15.10
6.10
16.50
5.10
3.30
7.17
0.00
9.20
3.00
2.00
13.30
14.00
0.00
0.00
21.60
21.30
1.00

SEP
34.90
16.40
9.40
8.50
19.90
73.20
6.20
13.30
7.10
6.20
25.60
21.80
12.40
21.90
19.90
36.70
16.40
19.90
13.30
3.00
27.90
4.00
15.46
2.30
7.20
8.40
2.00
4.00
3.00
12.40
12.20
9.30
18.10
13.50

OCT
16.20
9.60
37.80
9.50
26.60
94.70
50.30
4.20
32.90
10.10
31.60
4.10
19.00
2.10
18.40
39.80
63.60
30.10
18.50
43.50
108.10
21.00
8.20
12.00
20.50
44.10
50.70
22.40
18.20
52.60
24.20
52.50
13.50
63.80

123.29

113.48

100.48

46.45

9.48

5.45

4.41

7.17

15.46

31.60

DPTO
PROV
DIST
NOV
17.00
15.80
59.20
110.50
60.50
17.30
18.60
24.80
57.20
11.50
52.85
39.60
129.30
37.90
39.20
5.00
126.90
88.30
30.50
73.90
129.20
8.30
54.40
13.70
20.50
96.40
70.70
56.00
87.00
13.20
18.20
49.30
108.90
55.20
52.85

CUSCO
CALCA
PISAC
DIC
TOTAL
Total acumulado
73.50
351.20
351.20
36.00
222.80
574.00
65.20
439.80
1013.80
27.60
528.60
1542.40
103.70
661.30
2203.70
106.50
853.50
3057.20
43.60
725.40
3782.60
77.50
461.90
4244.50
152.00
968.50
5213.00
70.00
632.00
5845.00
68.60
538.65
6383.65
39.80
511.10
6894.75
14.20
485.70
7380.45
81.90
737.90
8118.35
73.20
786.50
8904.85
48.50
734.80
9639.65
119.90
754.10
10393.75
18.70
983.20
11376.95
34.00
281.98
11658.93
13.60
528.65
12187.59
25.00
908.50
13096.09
11.80
380.40
13476.49
34.70
503.73
13980.22
85.80
554.60
14534.82
27.10
442.90
14977.72
115.00
536.70
15514.42
65.70
484.50
15998.92
24.60
325.00
16323.92
109.80
558.00
16881.92
158.60
745.30
17627.22
57.60
381.80
18009.02
64.75
510.15
18519.17
97.80
546.00
19065.17
55.30
480.80
19545.97
64.75

574.88

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.50838373mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.25845401 R^2
R^2 ajustado
0.2352807
Error tpico
55.4906166
Observaciones
34
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
1 34342.6872 34342.6872 11.1530891 0.00214167
Residuos
32
98534.673 3079.20853
Total
33
132877.36

Intercepcin
Variable X 1

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%


90.7686813 29.7543286 3.05060426 0.00456312 30.1611487 151.376214
0.55265883 0.16548534
3.3396241 0.00214167 0.21557651 0.88974116

Anlisis de los residuales


ObservacinPronstico para Y ResiduosResiduos estndares
1 149.543948 -34.8727111 -0.63818728
2 168.859375 -101.443136 -1.85645787
3
127.106 -56.0500126 -1.02574201
4 184.941747 94.0149064 1.72051771
5 201.217549
91.803504 1.68004799
6 173.695139 -84.0951394 -1.53898124
7
162.61433 -30.2143298 -0.55293667
8
184.69305 20.1069498 0.36796679
9 217.078858 34.3211421
0.6280933
10
162.80776 14.4922396 0.26521491
11 156.921944 1.77805618 0.03253928
12 178.144043 -23.5440431 -0.43086724
13 153.937586 -41.6375861 -0.76198772
14 228.601795 1.29820537 0.02375778
15 181.957389
52.942611 0.96887508
16 144.873981 34.8260188 0.63733279
17 211.303573 -38.1035731 -0.6973136
18 204.561135 -144.761135 -2.64919795
19 176.043939 23.4522144 0.42918673
20 212.270726 -12.7745722 -0.23378078
21 158.137793 41.3583606 0.75687776
22 147.803073 51.6930808 0.94600808
23 262.977174 98.2228259 1.79752465
24 217.217023 -56.9170226 -1.04160871
25 208.706077 7.79392341 0.14263252
26 261.761325 -62.2651708 -1.13948238

Resultados de datos de probabilidad


Percentil
1.47058824
4.41176471
7.35294118
10.2941176
13.2352941
16.1764706
19.1176471
22.0588235
25
27.9411765
30.8823529
33.8235294
36.7647059
39.7058824
42.6470588
45.5882353
48.5294118
51.4705882
54.4117647
57.3529412
60.2941176
63.2352941
66.1764706
69.1176471
72.0588235
75

Y
59.8
67.4162385
71.0559871
89.6
112.3
114.671237
132.4
154.6
158.7
160.3
165
173.2
177.3
177.5
179.7
199.496154
199.496154
199.496154
199.496154
199.496154
199.496154
199.496154
199.496154
202
204.8
207

27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

155.485031
44.011123 0.80542458
176.320269 23.1758849 0.42412977
229.983442 -30.4872879 -0.55793194
199.310876 2.68912359 0.04921225
160.956353 4.04364669 0.07400067
184.168024 33.8319757 0.61914132
166.593473 40.4065266 0.73945874
176.596598 0.90340168 0.01653268

77.9411765
80.8823529
83.8235294
86.7647059
89.7058824
92.6470588
95.5882353
98.5294118

216.5
218
229.9
234.9
251.4
278.956653
293.021053
361.2

Variable X 1 Grfico de los residuales


Residuos

200
100
0
-1000.00
-200

100.00

200.00

300.00

Variable X 1

Variable X 1 Curva de regresin ajustada

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%


30.1611487 151.376214
0.21557651 0.88974116

400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

Pronstico para Y

Variable X 1

datos de probabilidad

Grfico de probabilidad normal


400
300
200
100
0
0

20

40

60
Muestra percentil

80

100

PER

400.00

Pronstico para Y

100

120

KAY
106.35
141.30
65.75
170.40
199.85
150.05
130.00
169.95
228.55
130.35
119.70
158.10
114.30
249.40
165.00
97.90
218.10
205.90
154.30
219.85
121.90
103.20
311.60
228.80
213.40
309.40
117.10
154.80
251.90
196.40
127.00
169.00
137.20
155.30

98.00
95.00
65.70
135.40
144.40
190.60
128.90
192.10
221.20
102.50
124.70
119.60
116.70
175.40
101.10
106.20
225.40
178.90
128.40
198.60
129.10
76.40
223.30
163.80
151.40
168.00
90.10
107.10
206.70
177.20
122.00
131.90
123.30
116.90

CAY
64.50
71.80
46.40
50.90
57.50
59.90
103.30
28.60
68.20
70.00
120.70
100.80
24.20
99.80
91.70
35.00
92.20
66.20
33.40
58.40
27.60
64.90
116.80
70.30
65.11
78.80
25.80
49.10
69.40
70.60
70.80
83.00
63.30
14.60

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.40016941mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.16013556 R^2
R^2 ajustado 0.10595075
Error tpico
25.0695522
Observaciones
34
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Regresin
2 3714.78284 1857.39142 2.95535925
Residuos
31 19482.9559
628.48245
Total
33 23197.7388

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad


36.9928532 14.9971155 2.46666455 0.01936801
0.2168435 0.12461469 1.74011185 0.09175974
-0.06206166 0.16615611 -0.37351418 0.71130807

Anlisis de los residuales


ObservacinPronstico para Y ResiduosResiduos estndares
1 53.9721168 10.5278832 0.43328196
2 61.7369822 10.0630178 0.41415011
3 47.1728623 -0.77286227 -0.03180765
4
65.539837 -14.639837 -0.60251212
5 71.3673232 -13.8673232 -0.5707188
6 57.7012678 2.19873222 0.09049027
7 57.1827602 46.1172398 1.89798533
8
61.923361 -33.323361 -1.37144484
9 72.8243959 -4.62439592 -0.19032006
10 58.8970834 11.1029166 0.45694784
11 55.2099311 65.4900689 2.69528685
12 63.8532362 36.9467638 1.52056836
13 54.5354695 -30.3354695 -1.2484762
14 80.1880072 19.6119928 0.80714446
15 66.4975971 25.2024029 1.03722146
16 51.6308835 -16.6308835 -0.68445495
17 70.2977223 21.9022777 0.90140264
18
70.538099 -4.33809895 -0.17853732
19 62.4830882 -29.0830882 -1.19693362
20
72.340451 -13.940451 -0.57372843
21 55.4139155 -27.8139155 -1.14469998
22 54.6295917 10.2704083 0.42268541
23 90.7029194 26.0970806 1.07404251
24 76.4409463 -6.14094633 -0.25273468
25
73.871121 -8.7650604 -0.36073182

26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

93.6578738
56.7934716
63.9134234
78.7875859
68.5835905
56.9604552
65.4534719
59.0915788
63.4136408

-14.8578738
-30.9934716
-14.8134234
-9.38758587
2.0164095
13.8395448
17.5465281
4.20842124
-48.8136408

-0.61148557
-1.27555671
-0.60965618
-0.38635227
0.08298666
0.56957557
0.7221389
0.17320034
-2.00895749

Residuos

Variable X 1 Grfico de los r


100
50
0
-500.00
-100

50.00

100.00

Valor crtico de F
0.06687172

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%


6.40601736 67.5796891 6.40601736 67.5796891
-0.03730998 0.47099699 -0.03730998 0.47099699
-0.40093948 0.27681615 -0.40093948 0.27681615

Residuos

Variable X 2 Grfico de los r


100
50
0
-500.00
-100

50.00

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Variable X 1 Curva de regresi

Y
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
0.00

100.00

Variable X 2 Curva de regresin a

14.6
24.2
25.8
27.6
28.6
33.4
35
46.4
49.1
50.9
57.5
58.4
59.9
63.3
64.5
64.9
65.1060606
66.2
68.2
69.4
70
70.3
70.6
70.8
71.8

Percentil
1.47058824
4.41176471
7.35294118
10.2941176
13.2352941
16.1764706
19.1176471
22.0588235
25
27.9411765
30.8823529
33.8235294
36.7647059
39.7058824
42.6470588
45.5882353
48.5294118
51.4705882
54.4117647
57.3529412
60.2941176
63.2352941
66.1764706
69.1176471
72.0588235

150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
0.00

100.00
Variable X 2

Grfico de probabilidad norm

75
77.9411765
80.8823529
83.8235294
86.7647059
89.7058824
92.6470588
95.5882353
98.5294118

78.8
83
91.7
92.2
99.8
100.8
103.3
116.8
120.7

Grfico de probabilidad norm


150
100
50
0
0

20

Variable X 1 Grfico de los residuales

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

Variable X 1

Variable X 2 Grfico de los residuales

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

Variable X 2

Variable X 1 Curva de regresin ajustada

100.00

200.00

300.00

Pronstico para Y

400.00

Variable X 1

riable X 2 Curva de regresin ajustada

100.00

200.00

300.00

Variable X 2

Grfico de probabilidad normal

Pronstico para Y

Grfico de probabilidad normal

40

60
Muestra percentil

80

100

120