Facilitating Rajapaksas departure A

bright light at the end of the tunnel

November 29, 2014, 4:36 pm

by Kumar David-November 29, 2014

This piece is drafted on the premise that Mahinda Rajapaksa can be
defeated on January 8, 2015, which is not the same as saying it is a
certainty - that is too early to judge since the gravity of the Maithripala
Sirisena (MS) challenge may or may not endure. This assumption delimits
the scope and defines the structure of my essay. Brevity being the soul of
wit, I eschew repeating "Assuming that my supposition is correct" in the
body of the text. The logically separate matter of predictions gets scant
mention; Lanka sports a bevy of pollster-pundits who lead and mislead and
herds of charlatans and conmen-astrologists to fill an asylum.
Yes, MS, Ranil, Chandrika and their teams have pulled off a coup de grace.
The imprecations I visited on their heads in recent months for lack of
clarity, coordination and commitment, clearly were excessive.
Understandably, the hazards of the stratagem made concealment
imperative. Still I am delighted since it is rarely that a prophet enjoys such
fulsome validation. The teams have pulled off a Single Issue (SI) challenge
(MS says the Executive Presidency EP will be abolished within 100 days)
and established a Common Candidature (CC). Every journey begins with a
first step which has been taken, but the road ahead is long with many
more steps to Survive, to Win, to Survive Again, and then to Utilise the

Victory. Ok, I had better make some sense of this cryptic ordering of steps!
To Survive till 8 January and to Win
Nobody in his senses should put anything beyond the craft, guile and
malevolence of the powers that be: "Beware the Jubjub bird and shun the
jaws that bite the claws that scratch" (A little modified with apologies). The
clan, in order of perfidy, is struggling to retain its loot, to stay clear of
prosecution and imprisonment, and to evade the fate of fallen dictators
stained by iniquity. Images of Mussolini strung up on a lamppost, Saddam
on trial, and Gaddafi in a ditch, strike dread into febrile minds. It is
understandable that the regime is scampering like a headless chicken.
This however is not my point. More important is that jeopardy for the
regime after the event is a precursor of deadly peril for the opposition
before it. Who can put assassination, palace coups, manufactured
pogroms, emergency rule, and bogus threats to national security to justify
brutal suppression, beyond the pale? True the worst can be thrown back if
the opposition stays strong, united and mobilised, but apart from these
mega scale hazards is the litany of electoral perfidy rigging, abuse of
state resources, biased police and state officials, and handouts on a
hitherto unseen scale. The antidote is to convince the public that MR is last
years baggage; the prospect of future punishment may deter some
government servants and less corrupt (are there any?) police officers. I
have adopted a tight style; there is a lot to say and limited column inches
to say it in. I beg readers to reach behind the sentences in these two
paragraphs and reconstruct the perils more fully in their minds.
Now to Can the Common Candidate win concerns. Putting aside the
aforesaid perils, the prospects of defeating the incumbent have soared.
The MS-Ranil-CBK move (were they or others Mangala, Rajitha, Rajiva,
another - the brains behind?) has turned the tables, but counteroffensives
still need to be blunted. For sure expect more surprises, some lurid others
comic, in the run-up to 8 December and 8 January. In the meantime there
are five hurdles the opposition needs to clear.
* Ensuring that the UNP mass vote turns out in strength for MS. The hardcore needs to see that once EP is abolished and parliamentary elections
held, their party, in all probability, will be in office and Ranil will be national
leader as new-style prime minister.

* Facilitating well timed defections from the SLFP to the Common Front. If
CBK and her allies can pull a quarter of the SLFP base-vote, MSs victory is
assured. I cannot see old loyalists like Ratnasiri and Dimu clinging to a MR
+ rump-SLFP concoction if defections soar. (The solidity of last weeks progovernment Budget vote must have disappointed MS and CBK). A future
task is for traditional SLFPers to jettison this corrupt self-seeking clan and
reclaim their heritage as a populist national-bourgeois party, its proper
historical position.
* Making sure the Tamils throw their weight behind the Single Issue
Common Candidate (SI-CC). There is no need to mislead Tamils; a Single
Issue is just that - abolishing EP. There should be no deception that socioeconomic difficulties will be overcome for the benefit of all, or full
devolution implemented for the Tamils. These lie further down the road.
The gain for Tamils is that at that stage they will be dealing with a more
democratic state, a less chauvinist government and a regime not tainted
by war-crimes and human rights violations.
* Convincing the JVP that it is time to grow up. Sure, it is Marxist - hence
my favourite among Lankas mass parties and wont soil itself in
capitalist business. Thats fine, but defence of democracy, albeit the
bourgeois-democratic variant, is obligatory. I wont labour this; Anura
Kumara and his team should know their Marx, Luxemburg and Gramsci
well enough.
* JHU backing breaks Rajapaksa in the Dharmapala Belt from Nugegoda to
Maharagama, Kotte, Kottawa and Homagama; a sizable conglomeration,
maybe 10% of the national electorate. If the JHU swings a third of this to
the Common Candidate, the CCs poll will swell from the mid-fifties to near
sixty percent. A sizeable defeat of the incumbent is important for reasons I
will advert to later. Retaining both JHU and TNA is predicated on assuring
the former that EP will be abolished in ways that do not endanger Lankas
unity, while Wigneswaran and the TNA appreciate that democratising the
centre will afford greater democracy at the periphery.
Readers will observe that I have not made reference to Muslims and
Upcountry Tamils in my list of key tasks. A large proportion of Muslims will
vote against MR irrespective of what hide-and-seek game Hakeem and the
SLMC get up to. The SLMC has degenerated even more since prostituting

itself for 18A; now well past its shelf-life it is time for replacement by
younger leaders.
Whatever the gluttonous and booze-soaked leadership of the CWC says,
half the Upcountry Tamils will vote against MR. It will be 100% if Delhi
puts its foot down and sends instructions in the wake of an Associated
Press story that the Rajapaksas are toying with a Trinco for China
delusion. If they try that, forget elections, the stakes are immeasurably
higher. Indira ground JR into the dust for a lesser offence. The Modi-US
axis will finish off the Rajapaksas and vaporise already flimsy Sri Lankan
sovereignty. Morality, I leave you to pontificate about that; this is realpolitik. However, an anti-MR Delhi intervention is manna from heaven that
opposition planners cannot count on.
At this point in the analysis it is clear that the sine qua non for winning big
is sustaining the alignment of the constituents of the Common Front.
Conversely, MRs side, alive to the threat, will strain every nerve and sinew
to disrupt alignment.
To Survive Again
I am done with two items on my cryptic list; to Survive and to Win. The
next item was to Survive Again. [Utilising the Victory, that is social
renewal, ethnic reconciliation and institution rebuilding, will have to wait
for later; its too much for one essay]. The constitution is unambiguous; if
defeated Rajapaksa must step down promptly. But the courts can no
longer be relied on to uphold the law, especially if the margin is small. And
in that case what about the elections commission? Will courts and
commission play fiddlesticks and fabricate a hiatus allowing Rajapaksa to
flounder on as a lame-duck in a miserable interregnum where nothing gets
done and the economy slides?
A defeated Rajapaksa will flop and his parliamentary support, except the
three blind mice of the Dead Left, will crumble. The UNP will do well in the
next parliamentary election and the sans-MR SLFP faction will not do badly
either. The pro-MR parliamentary contingent, after a failed presidential bid,
will score zilch. I am not painting a rosy picture of a soon-to-be-rid-of-MR
Lanka. On the contrary, I fear a hiatus will be a period of great danger; the
Surviving Again problematic.

Were a hiatus to materialise, government coffers will be in the grip of the

venal sibling, the military usurped by the Gobbelsian one. Conspiracies
reminiscent of Marcos and the worst African dictators when voted out are
possible scenarios. Should the rump-regime try funny business, I see the
streets aflame in reaction. Strange coming from a Marxist but I recoil from
this prospect. "All mimsy were the borogoves: And the mome raths
outgrabe". This will not be a pre-revolutionary phase heralding of social
transformation but a forerunner of anarchy.
Therefore a thumping defeat is best; it will compel Rajapaksa to depart
pronto without hanky-panky. Neither can abolishing EP be delayed; the
peoples mandate must be implemented. If this parliament, which would
have crumbled morally by then, fails to enact that mandate, it should be
sent packing and another elected. Cromwells is one way of doing it!
Students of political, constitutional, and even social change concede that
orderly transitions are best. MS, if he wins, should establish an all-party
cabinet to stamp moral authority a shadow cabinet if there is a hiatus.
Sarath Fonseka as Defence Minister (or shadow Defence Minister) has clout
and connection enough to nullify military subterfuges. Neither do the
obligations of the JVP, JHU and TNA end on 8 January. They run on till
amendments abolishing EP, repealing 18A and invoking fresh
parliamentary elections under the new system are done.
Am I day-dreaming? I think not; I read it over and it doesnt seem
outlandish; after all its not the Second Coming, Land of Hope and Glory, or
anything like that. And why cant a prophet be right twice? "Oh frabjous
day! Callooh! Callay!"
Posted by Thavam