RESEARCH PROBLEMS

Unlikely, Uncertain, Low

1. Black Carbon on Ice
2. Direct(Scattering and Absorption) and Indirect effect(Cloud Formation) of Aerosol
3. Thunder cell forecasting
4. Turbulence
5. Inertia-Gravity Wave
6. effect of mountains on radiation fields
7. radiative transfer in the atmosphereocean system
8. Antropogenic activities effect on Antartica sea ice
9. Role of Lighting in severe storm
10. Super cell formation
11. Troposphere-Stratosphere Coupling
12. Water Vapour circulation and interaction
13. Contrail induced Cirrus
14. variability of radiation averaged over the global ocean
15. There is medium confidence in the rate of warming and its vertical structure in the Northern
Hemisphere extra-tropical troposphere and low confidence elsewhere.
16. Confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since 1901 is low prior to 1951
and medium afterwards. Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere,
precipitation has increased since 1901 (medium confidence before and high confidence after 1951).
For other latitudes area-averaged long-term positive or negative trends have low confidence
17. Increase in intensity and duration of drought
18. Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity
19. The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998 to 2012 as compared to the
period 1951 to 2012,is due in roughly equal measure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing and a
cooling contribution from natural internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat
within the ocean (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to
volcanic eruptions and the timing of the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle. However, there
is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing the reduced
warming trend. There is medium confidence that natural internal decadal variability causes to a
substantial degree the difference between observations and the simulations; the latter are not
expected to reproduce the timing of natural internal variability. There may also be a contribution
from forcing inadequacies and, in some models, an overestimate of the response to increasing
greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcing
20. Uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the cloud feedback is due primarily to continuing
uncertainty in the impact of warming on low clouds.
21. Natural variations of the amplitude and spatial pattern of ENSO
22. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
23. permafrost carbon stocks release to atmosphere
24. Based on multiple independent analyses of measurements from radiosondes and satellite sensors, it is
virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed and the stratosphere has cooled since the
mid-20th century (Figure TS.1). Despite unanimous agreement on the sign of the trends, substantial
disagreement exists between available estimates as to the rate of temperature changes, particularly
outside the NH extratropical troposphere, which has been well sampled by radiosondes. Hence there
is only medium confidence in the rate of change and its vertical structure in the NH extratropical
troposphere and low confidence elsewhere. {2.4.4}
25. the observations of global-scale cloud variability and trends

26. There is medium confidence that ice shelves are thinning in the Amundsen Sea region of West
Antarctica, and low confidence that this is due to high ocean heat flux.
27. there is low agreement on the sign of the net change in global mean temperature as a result of land
use change
28. wetland CH4 emissions.
29. aerosol optical depth trend
30. the evolution of AMOC beyond the 21st century
31. The existence of critical climate change driven dieback thresholds in the Amazonian and other
tropical rainforests purely driven by climate change remains highly uncertain. The possibility of a
critical threshold being crossed in precipitation volume and duration of dry seasons cannot be ruled
out. The response of boreal forest to projected climate change is also highly uncertain, and the
existence of critical thresholds cannot at present be ruled out. There is low confidence in projections
of the collapse of large areas of tropical and/or boreal forests.
32. Tropical Tropospheric temperature
33. projected changes in soil moisture and surface runoff
34. near-term projections of the position and strength of NH storm tracks
35. There is low confidence in basin-scale projections of changes in intensity and frequency of tropical
cyclones in all basins
36. There is low confidence in projected near-term decreases in the Antarctic sea ice extent and volume
37. There is low confidence in near-term projections for increased tropical cyclone intensity in the
Atlantic
38. the magnitude of modelled future land carbon changes
39. the effectiveness of CDR methods and their side effects on carbon and other biogeochemical cycles
40. projections of the North American and South American monsoon precipitation changes
41. projections of a small delay in the West African rainy season, with an intensification of late-season
rains.
42. Future projections of regional climate extremes in West Asia, Southeast Asia and Australia
43. Natural variations of the amplitude and spatial pattern of ENSO
44. there is a positive feedback between climate and the carbon cycle, but confidence remains low in the
strength of this feedback, particularly for the land
45. Confidence is low in ozone changes across the Southern Hemisphere
46. Stratospheric cooling above lower stratosphere
47. changes in snowfall over Antarctica.
48. increasing trend in global river discharge during the 20th century.
49. surface wind trends
50. changes in surface wind speed over the land and over the oceans
51. upper-air wind trends
52. trends of the tropical cold-point tropopause
53. strength of the Hadley circulation
54. weakening of the East Asian monsoon
55. trends in the BDC
56. the rate of Antarctic ice loss
57. changes in the ocean affecting Antarctica ice
58. precise relationship between CO2 and deep-ocean temperature
59. Read page 476
60. the magnitude of frozen carbon losses to the atmosphere
61. coupled climatebiogeochemistry models
62. high-latitude land carbon response to climate change.
63. CH4 increase from fire
64. The level of confidence on the impacts of the enhanced upwelling is low
65. CDR and SRM
66. Aerosolclimate feedbacks
67. Anthropogenic fraction of CCN
68. Responses of the atmosphere and vegetation cover to climate change forcings

69. cloud properties and the global electric circuit

70. rapid adjustments at the global scale aerosolradiation interactions (pg 631)
71. soil moistureprecipitation feedbacks(640)
72. There is robust evidence that tropospheric ozone also has a detrimental impact on vegetation
physiology, and therefore on its CO2 uptake, but there is a low confidence on quantitative estimates
of the RF owing to this indirect effect.(677)
73. UV variations and their relationship with solar activity(706)
74. vegetation changes may have caused modest cooling at high latitudes and warming at low
latitudes(723)
75. impacts of changes in solar irradiance on continental and sub-continental scale climate(1023)
76. Atmospheric transport and oceanic current
77. oceanic circulation changes around Antarctica(1187)
78. grounding line retreat
BOOKS
a) Numerical Techniques for Global Atmospheric Models(done)
b) Fundamentals of Atmospheric Modeling(done)
c) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences(done)
d) An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology (done)
e) Climate Change and Climate Modeling(done)
f)
g)
h)
i)
j)
k)
l)
m)
n)

Discrete Inverse and State Estimation Problems: With Geophysical Fluid Applications(done)
Geophysical Data Analysis: Discrete Inverse Theory(done)
The Fourier Transform and its Applications(done)
Spectral Analysis for Physical Applications: Multitaper and Conventional Univariate Techniques. (done)
Introduction to Applied Mathematics(done)
Numerical Prediction and Dynamic Meteorology(done)
Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Predictabiliy(done)
Coping with Chaos(done)

Numerical Recipes: The Art of Scientific Computing(done)