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Climate Change

Permafrost
Permafrost is permanently frozen soil, and occurs mostly in high latitudes. Permafrost comprises 24% of the land
in the Northern Hemisphere, and stores massive amounts of carbon. As a result of climate change, permafrost is
at risk of melting, releasing the stored carbon in the form of carbon dioxide and methane, which are powerful heattrapping gases. In addition, permafrost is structurally important, and its melting has been known to cause erosion,
disappearance of lakes, landslides, and ground subsidence. It will also cause changes in plant species
composition at high latitudes.
What is permafrost?
The Effect of Climate Change on Permafrost
Melting Permafrost Causes Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Carbon Exchange
Methane
Other Impacts of Melting Permafrost
Conclusion
Related Blogs
References
Further Information

What is permafrost?
Permafrost is permanently frozen soil, sediment, or rock. Its
classification is solely based on temperature, not moisture or ground
cover. The ground must remain at or below 0C for at least two
years in order to be considered permafrost. Although new
permafrost is forming, it can be over thousands of years old. For
example, some of the permafrost in western Canada's boreal
peatlands has been there since the Little Ice Age of the 1600's
(Turetsky et al., 2007).
Permafrost has layers, of which frozen ground is just one portion
(Figure 1). The active layer is ground that is seasonally frozen,
typically lying above the perennially frozen permafrost layer. Talik is
unfrozen ground that lies below the permafrost and between the
active layer and permafrost.

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Where is permafrost found?

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Most frequently, permafrost is found in high latitudes near the north

and south poles. However, it can also be found at high altitudes in
other locations around the world. Roughly 37% of the Northern
Hemisphere permafrost occurs in western North America, mainly in
Alaska and northern Canada, but also further south in the Rocky
Mountains. The majority of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere
occurs in the Eastern Hemisphere, in Siberia and the Far East of
Russia, as well as northern Mongolia, northeastern China and the
Tibetan Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (Zhang et al., 1999).

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Figure 1. Idealized permafrost cross section.

In the Southern Hemisphere, permafrost is found in Antarctica, the Antarctic islands, and the Andes Mountains. In
areas where the conditions are such that the ground is cold enough year-round, continuous permafrost forms.
Discontinuous and sporadic permafrost occurs in locations where temperatures only get cold enough in certain areas,
such as in the shade, or on the northern side of a hill or mountain. Seasonal permafrost occurs during colder seasons
and thaws or disappears during warmer times of the year.

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Permafrost | Weather Underground

The Effect of Climate Change on Permafrost

Our climate has accumulated
Climate change will significantly affect the complex interactions between above- and below-ground climate regimes.
However, even changes in temperature at the surface take time to impact permafrost at depth; According to the
Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), "for thick permafrost this lag may be on the order of hundreds to thousands of
years, for thin permafrost, years to decades" (GSC, 2007).

Global
(ocean,
atmosphere, ice) heat
accumulation
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In a recent study using freezing/thawing index, trend analysis of spatial data since 1970 indicates that in recent
decades, there has been a decrease in freezing during the cold season throughout North America's permafrost
regions. Additionally, coastal areas and eastern Canada have started to see "significant" increases in warm season
thawing of permafrost (Frauenfeld et al., 2007). Overall, this means there has been a decrease in freeze depths and in
the amount of permanent permafrost. Conversely, there has been an increase in seasonal permafrost. This increase in
seasonal permafrost is not due to increases in acres frozen, but to the decrease in permanent permafrost which is not
remaining frozen all year anymore. Since it is no longer perennially frozen, it loses its distinction as 'permanent' and
becomes 'seasonal'.

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Decreasing freeze depths have also been recorded in a

separate study of deep boreholes in mountain permafrost
in Svalbard and Scandinavia. Results from the study show
that the permafrost has "warmed considerably" at the study
sites and that "significant warming is detectable down to at
least 60m depth, and present decadal warming rates at
the permafrost surface are on the order of 0.04.0.07C
[per year], with greatest warming in Svalbard and in
northern Scandinavia. The present regional trend shows
accelerated warming during the last decade" (Isaksen et
al., 2007).
Although many studies, programs, and research, including
the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTNP),
indicate a warming trend throughout the permafrost zone,
some have found no significant changes have occurred in
permanent Russian permafrost regions. According to the
authors of the study mentioned earlier, spatial trend
analysis shows that while permanent permafrost areas in
Russia have remained largely within the same freezing
regime, seasonally frozen ground areas are experiencing
"significant warming trends" (Frauenfeld et al., 2007).

Figure 2. Permafrost distribution in the Arctic. Image

credit: Philippe Rekacewicz, 2005, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
All of these changes in permafrost areas are attributed to
Maps and Graphics Library based on International
increases in air temperature and changes in snow cover,
Permafrost Association (1998) Circumpolar Activespecifically in Canada and Alaska. This echoes the
Layer Permafrost System (CAPS), version 1.0.
conclusions of numerous other reports, such as those from
the Geological Survey of Canada and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, which attribute the northern polar region's
permafrost thaw to dramatic warming over the past half-century. In regions of discontinuous and seasonal permafrost,
ground temperatures are generally right around freezing. With even 1-2 degrees increase in temperature, these areas
of permafrost will "likely ultimately disappear as a result of ground thermal changes associated with global climate
warming" (GSC, 2007). Based on trends and forecasts predicted by climate models, however, we could be facing a
much steeper increase in air temperature, leading to more significant effects on permafrost regions across the globe.
As Charles Harris, one of the authors of the Svalbard study, a geologist at the University of Cardiff, UK, and a
coordinator of Permafrost and Climate in Europe (PACE), said in a 2004 interview, "Boreholes in Svalbard, Norway, for
example, indicate that ground temperatures rose 0.4C over the past decade, four times faster than they did in the
previous century. What took a century to be achieved in the 20th Century will be achieved in 25 years in the 21st
Century, if this trend continues" (Bently, 2004).
Additionally, thawing and warming permafrost areas do not seem to be reversing the trend from year to year. Instead,
they keep warming. Researchers of Canada's peatland permafrost regions mentioned "The permafrost underlying
Canada's peatlands show no sign of regeneration" (Turetsky et al., 2007). According to the IPCC, by the mid-21st
century, the area of permafrost in the northern hemisphere is expected to decline by around 20 per cent to 35 per cent.
The depth of thawing is likely to increase by 30 percent to half its current depth by 2080 (UNEP, 2007). The end result
could look something like the scenario depicted in the figure "Map of Permafrost in the Future".

Impacts of Melting Permafrost: Physical and Ecological

Thawing permafrost has significant effects on surface and subsurface regimes, including those governing hydrology
and energy and moisture balance. Ecosystem diversity, composition, and productivity are not only impacted by
increasing air temperatures, but by the associated effects of increasing ground temperatures as well. Because of this,
thawing permafrost has significant impacts on infrastructure and ecosystems. Where ground ice contents are
comparatively high, permafrost degradation can have significant impacts, some of which may take not be as readily
apparent as others.
Structural Importance
The Geological Survey of Canada states "Of greatest concern are soils with the potential for instability upon thaw
(thaw settlement, creep or slope failure). Such instabilities may have implications for the landscape, ecosystems, and
infrastructure" (GSC, 2007). Erosion, landslides, and subsidence can all result from permafrost degradation.

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Permafrost | Weather Underground

Figure 6. Sishmaref photo series: Only two hours separate the first photo from the second. For reference, red arrows
mark the barrel. By the time the second photograph was taken, the coastline in the foreground had retreated past the
barrel. Although coastal erosion was significant, this was not a particularly strong storm. Image courtesy of Tony
Weyiouanna Sr. Image credit: NSIDC.
Erosion
Erosion is especially evident and worrisome in coastal areas, may of which are also being ravaged by winter storm
surge as the protective barrier of sea ice appears later and later (if at all) during the year. Intact permafrost is
extremely resilient. However, when it becomes compromised, it and the ground above and below it become much more
vulnerable to the erosive forces of wind and water. On our Sea Ice page, you can see a picture of a house in
Shismaref, Alaska that has had its foundation washed away by storm surge. These pictures to the right in Figure 4
were also taken in Shishmaref, Alaska, during a storm in 2003.
In some areas, erosion has been so much enhanced by exposed and degraded permafrost, the inhabitants might have
to be evacuated. Costs to relocate are hefty . for towns such as Kivalina, Alaska, they have been estimated at
upwards of $400 million. Due to the heavy toll climate change is taking on Kivalina, the town recently sued two dozen
oil, power, and coal companies for their contributions to global warming (CNN, 2008).
Landslides
As permafrost thaws, the friction needed between the frozen and thawing permafrost regions to maintain stability
disappears. On ice, you don't need a very sloped surface before you start to slip and slide . and that's exactly what
happens with the permafrost and overlying land, resulting in landslides. This happened in July of 1988 on the Fosheim
Peninsula of Canada's Ellesmere Island after a few years of increasingly warmer temperatures during the summers.
Hundreds of landslides, some of which were the size of over three football fields, carried tons of soil into a number of
creek valleys.
According to the Permafrost and Climate in Europe (PACE) project, thawing permafrost is likely to have similar effects
on the slopes of Europe's Alps and Pyrenees as global temperatures continue to rise. Landslides, such as the Val Pola
landslide of July 1987 in the Italian Alps are predicted to become more common as the permafrost underlying the
slopes of Europe's mountains degrades due to rising ground temperatures.
Subsidence
Ground subsidence can occur when
permafrost thaws and the soil
previously held up by the ice collapses.
The resulting landscape is characterized
by irregular surfaces of marshy hollows
and small hummocks called
thermokarst. Visitors and residents all
over permafrost regions have been
struck by the effects of this
phenomenon when they see a wooded
landscape affected by subsidence from
permafrost thaw. They call these areas
"drunken forests" because of the way
that the trees lean, as shown in Figure
5.
However, subsidence can have other
effects on vegetation. A group of
scientists studying the effect of
Figure 7. Permafrost distribution in the Arctic. Image credit: Philippe
permafrost thawing on vegetation in
Rekacewicz, 2005, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library
Alaska noted, "This effect of warming
based on International Permafrost Association (1998) Circumpolar Activeacts on vegetation indirectly by creating
Layer Permafrost System (CAPS), version 1.0.
localized variability in moisture
conditions as lower karst areas
accumulate moisture and may have the water table near the soil surface, while nearby higher areas become drier"
(Schuur et al., 2007). In some of these areas, these changing conditions allow new plant species to grow. In other
pockets, water collects and they become thermokarst lakes or ponds. Once the underlying permafrost has thawed

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Permafrost | Weather Underground

completely away, however, this water sinks back in to the empty space and disappears. According to a 2005 article in
Science, this is what has been happening in Western Siberia, where thawing permafrost is the likely cause behind of
the disappearance of Siberian Arctic lakes during the past three decades over an area of 500,000 square km (see
Figure 6).
In addition to its ecological effects, subsidence caused by thawing can significantly compromise infrastructure built on
top of permafrost. Many permafrost areas are permanently inhabited by humans, and as such have roads, buildings,
and other structures built on it. In places where these structures were not designed to withstand changes in
permafrost, subsidence has created sinkholes that swallow up houses and small buildings, and has also caused
foundations to shift and drop and roads and railroads to crack and heave (such as the building and railroad in Figure 7
at right). In some permafrost areas, engineers are coming up with new ways to build on permafrost such that the
ground is insulated from the heat created by whatever is on the ground above it. Additionally, these new engineering
techniques are making it possible for the infrastructure built upon it to weather changes in permafrost a little bit better.
The world's longest high-elevation railroad, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway or "Permafrost Express", in China and the 800mile long Trans Alaska Pipeline in Alaska both involved engineering and design techniques sensitive to the permafrost
environment in which they were constructed.

Figure 8. A railroad in Alaska (left) and building (right), both buckled due to thawing permafrost. Image credit: (left)
NASA and U.S. Geological Survey, (right) Vladimir Romanovsky, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Ecology
The changes brought about by thawing permafrost will also have significant impacts on the ecosystems of the Arctic.
In addition to impacting migration routes and patterns in birds, reindeer, and caribou, it is expected that the effects of
thawing permafrost will change the plant species composition of the area, as well as its productivity.

Changes in plant species composition

Increasing temperatures are expected to have significant
impacts on the species composition world wide. This is
also true of permafrost areas in northern latitude
ecosystems, where plant species composition and
productivity will change as increasing temperatures will
allow new, warmer-climate species to grow. Tundra is
usually characterized by sedges and grasses. However,
with warming temperatures, these typical tundra species
are being overtaken by evergreen shrubs and trees. The
IPCC projects that by 2100, between 10 and 50% of the
Arctic tundra could be replaced by forests (UNEP, 2007).
Warming can affect plants directly, through its influences
over plant growth, and indirectly, through changes in
nutrient availability. In permafrost areas, where increasing
temperatures and subsequent thawing causes the
development of thermokarst, warming can drastically
change the hydrologic profile of an ecosystem.
Researchers working at permafrost sites across Alaska
and at peatland sites overlaying permafrost across boreal
regions in Canada found changes in community
composition, biomass, and productivity as a result of
warmer air and soil temperatures as well as associated
Figure 9. Disappearing arctic lakes in Siberia. Image
changes in the hydrologic structure of the soil (Schuur et
credit: Smith, 2005, NASA Earth Observatory.
al., 2007; Turetsky et al., 2007). Plant biomass shifted
away from traditional species to plants associated with
warmer, wetter biotypes. Additionally, plant productivity increased due to improved availability of nitrogen and other
nutrients from altered hydrological patterns caused by thawing permafrost.
As a warming climate allows snow and ice to thaw, and tundra species are replaced with evergreens, albedo changes.
Instead of reflecting sunlight, the landscape begins to absorb more heat than it did previously, further increasing the
warming and thawing trends in the area.

Conclusion

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Permafrost | Weather Underground

Not all ecosystems in permafrost regions will respond the same way. Turetsky herself cautioned in an interview earlier
this year, "It will depend on the history of the permafrost and the nature of both vegetation and soils" (Physorg.com,
2007). The quantity, distribution, and composition of the organic matter in permafrost areas are important in
determining their effect on emissions. Some permafrost, such as yedoma permafrost found mostly in northern and
eastern Siberia as well as in smaller amounts in Canada and Alaska, have more concentrated carbon and methane
stores than others.
Additionally, records and data for many regions are incomplete or of short-term duration, with the exception of Russia's
long-term permafrost monitoring. There has been a push to extend current monitoring programs and enlarge their
scope. Programs such as the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTNP) are working to organize data
collection so that there is a global network for detecting and monitoring changes in permafrost regions, and predicting
climate change's impact on these affected areas. Advances in spatial analysis have contributed greatly, as evidenced
by the research conducted for the 2005 article on Siberian lake methane emissions. You can even monitor permafrost
thaw with Google Earth!

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References
"Adaptation to Climate Change Key Challenge for Arctic Peoples and Arctic Economy: Thawing Permafrost, Melting
Sea Ice and Significant Changes in Natural Resources Demands Comprehensive Sustainable Development Plan."
United Nations Environment Programme, April 10, 2007.
"Climate change and permafrost thaw alter greenhouse gas emissions in northern wetlands." Physorg.com, August 9,
2007.
"Climate change threatens existence, Eskimo lawsuit says." CNN, February 27, 2008.
"Permafrost: Permafrost and Climate Change." Geological Survey Canada (GCS), Natural Resources Cananda,
December 2007.
"Warm Arctic may enhance global warming." Environmental News Network, March 1, 1999.
Bently, Molly. "Earth's permafrost starts to squelch." BBC News. December 29, 2004.
Frauenfeld, Oliver W., Tingjun Zhang, and James L. Mccreight. "Northern Hemisphere freezing/thawing index
variations over the twentieth century." International Journal of Climatology 27, no. 1 (2007): 47.63.
Goulden, M. L., S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Harden, S. E. Trumbore, P. M. Crill, S. T. Gower, T. Fries, B. C. Daube, S.-M. Fan,
D. J. Sutton, A. Bazzaz, and J. W. Munger. "Sensitivity of boreal forest carbon balance to soil thaw." Science 279
(1998): 214.217.
Isaksen, K., J. L. Sollid, P. Holmlund, and C. Harris. "Recent warming of mountain permafrost in Svalbard and
Scandinavia." Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): F02S04.
Johansson, Torbjoern, Nils Malmer, Patrick M Crill, Thomas Friborg, Jonas H Aakerman, Mikhail Mastepanov, and
Torben R. Christensen. "Decadal vegetation changes in a northern peatland, greenhouse gas fluxes and net radiative
forcing." Global Change Biology 12, no. 12 (December 2006): 2352.2369.
Romanovsky, Vladimir E. "How rapidly is permafrost changing and what are the impacts of these changes?" NOAA
webpage.
Schuur, Edward A. G., Kathryn G. Crummer, Jason G. Vogel and Michelle C. Mack. "Plant Species Composition and
Productivity following Permafrost Thaw and Thermokarst in Alaskan Tundra." Ecosystems 10, no. 2 (March 2007):
280.292.
Smith, L. C., Y. Sheng, G. M. MacDonald, and L. D. Hinzman. "Disappearing Arctic Lakes." Science 308, no. 5727
(June 3, 2005): 1429.
Turetsky, M. R., R. K. Wieder, D. H. Vitt, R. J. Evans, and K. D. Scott. "The disappearance of relict permafrost in boreal
North America: Effects on peatland carbon storage and fluxes." Global Change Biology 13, no. 9 (2007): 1922.1934.

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Permafrost | Weather Underground

United Nations Environment Programme. "Press Release: Adaptation to Climate Change Key Challenge for Arctic
Peoples and Arctic Economy: Thawing Permafrost, Melting Sea Ice and Significant Changes in Natural Resources
Demands Comprehensive Sustainable Development Plan." April 10, 2007.
Walter, K. M., S. A. Zimov, J. P. Chanton, D. Verbyla, and F. S. Chapin, III. "Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw
lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming." Nature 443 (September 7, 2006): 71.75.
Williams, P.J. and M.W. Smith. The Frozen Earth: Fundamentals of Geocryology. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press, 1989.
Zhang, T. "Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: an overview." Reviews of Geophysics
43 (2005): RG4002.
Zhang, T., R.G. Barry, K. Knowles, J. A. Heginbottom, and J. Brown. "Statistics and characteristics of permafrost and
ground ice distribution in the Northern Hemisphere." Polar Geography 23, no. 2 (1999): 147.169.

Sources of Further Information

Wikipedia, "Permafrost"
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
National Snow and Ice Data Center's Frozen Ground Data Center
Geological Survey of Canada's Permafrost Page
Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost
International Permafrost Association (IPA)
Southern Hemisphere Permafrost and Periglacial Environments
U.S. Permafrost Association
Antarctic Permafrost And Soils (ANTPAS)
The University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL)
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Report: Impacts of a Warming Arctic
Alaska US Fish & Wildlife Service, "Ice Wedges, Polygons, and Pingos"
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I, The Physical Science Basis, Chapters 4 and 10.
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Thermokarst
Wikipedia, "Thermokarst"
Trans Alaska Pipeline design and technical details:
Alyeska Pipeline, "Pipeline Facts: Permafrost"
Wikipedia, "Trans-Alaska Pipeline System"
Qinghai-Tibet Railway ("The Permafrost Express"):
Chinese Academy of Sciences, "Construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and Permafrost Environment"
NASA, "Riding the Permafrost Express"
Journal Articles:
Dutta, K., E. A. G. Schuur, J. C. Neff, and S. A. Zimov. "Potential carbon release from permafrost soils of
Northeastern Siberia." Global Change Biology 12, no.12 (December 2006): 2336.2351.
Gundelwein, A., T. Mller-Lupp, M. Sommerkorn, E. T. K. Haupt, E.-M. Pfeiffer, and H. Wiechmann. "Carbon in
tundra soils in the Lake Labaz region of arctic Siberia." European Journal of Soil Science 58, no. 5 (October
2007): 1164.1174.
Lempinen, Edward W. "In Arctic Alaska, the Warming Climate Threatens an Ancient Culture." American
Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) New Releases (December 2006).

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