Regression Summary for reg

11-05-2014
Variable
Probability

Mean Standard

Regression

15:45:51

Name

Deviation

Coefficient

Dependent

Factor 2

8066,6250

908,7383

Y-intercept

Constant

6482,4790

Standard

t value

Error

> |t|

23,6483

274,1201

Factor 1

Se =

24,5000

80,6434

14,0000

R-square =

64,6591

0,9923 R-adjusted =

0,8402 76,9551

0,9921

Forecast
11/05/2014 Actual
by
Forecast CFE
MAD
Month
Data
LR
Error
1
6428
6547,138 -119,138 -119,138 119,1377
2
6670
6611,796 58,2036 -60,9341 88,6707
3
6565
6676,456 -111,456
-172,39 96,2656
4
6621
6741,115 -120,115 -292,504 102,2279
5
6861
6805,774 55,2261 -237,278 92,8275
6
6940
6870,433 69,5674 -167,711 88,9508
7
6905
6935,092 -30,0918 -197,803 80,5424
8
6952
6999,751
-47,751 -245,554 76,4435
9
7086
7064,41 21,5903 -223,963 70,3487
10
7125
7129,069
-4,0688 -228,032 63,7207
11
7186
7193,728
-7,728
-235,76 58,6305
12
7355
7258,387 96,6133 -139,147 61,7957
13
7280
7323,046 -43,0459 -182,193 60,3534
14
7429
7387,705 41,2949 -140,898 58,9921
15
7389
7452,364 -63,3643 -204,262 59,2836
16
7397
7517,023 -120,023 -324,285 63,0798
17
7524
7581,682 -57,6821 -381,967 62,7623
18
7645
7646,341
-1,3413 -383,309
59,35
19
7626
7711
-85 -468,309
60,7
20
7815
7775,659 39,3408 -428,968
59,632
21
7951
7840,318 110,6816 -318,286
62,063
22
7904
7904,977
-0,9771 -319,263 59,2863
23
8103
7969,636 133,3638 -185,899 62,5071

MSE
14193,79
8790,726
10001,26
11107,84
9496,253
8720,148
7603,772
6938,32
6219,189
5598,925
5095,361
5448,592
5172,004
4924,38
4863,757
5460,117
5334,652
5038,383
5153,468
4973,18
5319,715
5077,953
5630,473

MAPE
(%)
1,8534
1,363
1,4746
1,5595
1,4086
1,3409
1,2116
1,146
1,0525
0,953
0,8761
0,9126
0,8879
0,8641
0,8637
0,9111
0,9026
0,8535
0,8672
0,849
0,8749
0,8357
0,8709

RTracking sqaure
Signal
-1
-0,6872
0,134
-1,7908
0,620
-2,8613
-2,5561
0,530
-1,8854
0,430
-2,4559
0,548
-3,2122
0,668
-3,1836
0,677
-3,5786
0,721
-4,0211
0,762
-2,2517
0,709
-3,0188
0,775
-2,3884
0,778
-3,4455
0,839
-5,1409
0,917
-6,0859
0,950
-6,4584
0,947
-7,7151
0,98
-7,1936
0,957
-5,1284
0,910
-5,3851
0,917
-2,9741
0,881

24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

8118
8139
8281
8313
8267
8437
8505
8530
8682
8611
8721
8847
8821
8781
8918
8883
8913
9237
9115
9194
9254
9266
9429
9550
9629

8034,295 83,7046 -102,195

8098,955 40,0454 -62,1494
8163,613 117,3867 55,2373
8228,273 84,7275 139,9648
8292,932 -25,9316 114,0332
8357,591 79,4092 193,4424
8422,25
82,75 276,1924
8486,908 43,0918 319,2842
8551,567 130,4326 449,7168
8616,227
-5,2266 444,4902
8680,886 40,1143 484,6045
8745,545 101,4551 586,0596
8810,204 10,7959 596,8555
8874,863 -93,8633 502,9922
8939,522 -21,5215 481,4707
9004,181 -121,181
360,29
9068,84
-155,84 204,4502
9133,499 103,501 307,9512
9198,158 -83,1582 224,793
9262,817 -68,8174 155,9756
9327,476 -73,4756
82,5
9392,135 -126,135 -43,6348
9456,794 -27,7939 -71,4287
9521,453 28,5469 -42,8818
9586,112 42,8877
0,0059
9650,772
9715,431
9780,089
9844,748
9909,407
9974,066
10038,73
10103,38
10168,04
10232,7
10297,36
10362,02
10426,68
10491,34
10556
10620,66
10685,32
10749,97
10814,63
10879,29

63,3903
62,4565
64,5692
65,3158
63,9092
64,4437
65,0539
64,3455
66,4107
64,5566
63,8377
64,9125
63,4093
64,2324
63,1084
64,5974
66,8785
67,7717
68,1381
68,1539
68,2748
69,5606
68,6526
67,7993
67,2803

5687,805
5524,439
5841,946
5891,458
5705,065
5725,78
5763,173
5637,165
5992,649
5811,881
5688,272
5819,839
5661,415
5746,52
5607,484
5840,235
6301,38
6408,967
6421,023
6381,832
6359,487
6571,72
6445,65
6325,848
6232,379

0,8776
0,8621
0,8835
0,8885
0,868
0,8705
0,8739
0,862
0,8821
0,8572
0,8455
0,8541
0,8338
0,8401
0,8244
0,8382
0,861
0,8673
0,8684
0,8656
0,864
0,875
0,8624
0,8504
0,842

-1,6122
-0,9951
0,8555
2,1429
1,7843
3,0017
4,2456
4,962
6,7718
6,8853
7,5912
9,0285
9,4127
7,8308
7,6293
5,5775
3,057
4,5439
3,2991
2,2886
1,2084
-0,6273
-1,0404
-0,6325
0,0001

0,870
0,873
0,860
0,857
0,875
0,873
0,872
0,878
0,870
0,883
0,88
0,886
0,895
0,914
0,924
0,942
0,962
0,954
0,966
0,975
0,983
0,995
0,997
0,995
0,992

69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96

CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-sqaure

10943,95
11008,61
11073,27
11137,93
11202,59
11267,25
11331,91
11396,57
11461,22
11525,88
11590,54
11655,2
11719,86
11784,52
11849,18
11913,84
11978,5
12043,16
12107,81
12172,47
12237,13
12301,79
12366,45
12431,11
12495,77
12560,43
12625,09
12689,75

0,0059
67,2803
6232,379
0,842
0,0001
0,9923
a=6482,479
b=64,6590