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10.1177/1069397103251424
Cross-Cultural
Barber
/ PATERNAL
Research
INVESTMENT
/ May 2003
ARTICLE
Nigel Barber
Previous research has shown that when young women have diminished prospects of paternal investment in their children, they are
more likely to reproduce as teens. This study investigated whether
high rates of nonmarital births for 85 countries would be predicted
by diminished prospects of paternal investment as measured by
high male unemployment, low wealth (gross national product
[GNP]), low sex ratios, and high teen birth rates. It was predicted
that single parenthood would increase with female literacy, used as
an index of career orientation. In correlational and regression analyses, single parenthood rates generally declined as paternal investment increased. Single parenthood increased with female literacy
in the regression analysis, possibly because the greater economic
power of women in developed countries makes them less reliant on
economic support from husbands. Single childbearing can thus be
seen either as a response to diminished prospects of or diminished
reliance on paternal investment.
Keywords: single parenthood; out-of-wedlock births; paternal
investment theory; paternal investment; marriage
market
163
164
Barber (2000a, 2001) reported that teen birth rates increase when
women face a difficult marriage market, that is, a scarcity of marriageable men. Teen births also decreased with economic development and with urbanization of the population, indicating that reproductive decisions of young women are affected by their own
economic prospects and those of potential husbands. This research
investigated whether similar conclusions can be drawn with respect to single parenthood.
In general, if paternal investment prospects are poor, women
reproduce early in life, possibly because delayed reproduction will
not improve their marriage prospects. Such an approach assumes
that female reproductive choices are the primary determinant of
single parenthood. This female choice model derives from the
ideas of Charles Darwin and has been the dominant perspective in
studies of nonhuman and human parental behavior (Hrdy, 1999).
Recently, evolutionists have paid more attention to the reproductive decisions of men with respect to paternal care and single parenthood (Geary & Flinn, 2001; Hewlett, 1992). Some of the key considerations are that men are less likely to remain with the mother
of their child if their coresidence does not contribute to the childs
survival. Another interesting recent idea follows from the notion
that women choose men based on their capacity to provide direct
paternal care in addition to economic resources. One example is
the Aka Pygmies of Central Africa, where some fathers perform
more direct child care than is seen elsewhere (Smuts & Gubernick,
1992). Men of higher social status spend less time in caring for
their children, suggesting that willingness to care for children
makes men more desirable as husbands and that men who are
desirable because of their social standing do not have to provide
child care services to their spouse.
There has been little cross-national or cross-cultural research
designed to investigate either feminine or masculine evolutionary
strategies underlying single parenthood. Indeed, there is little
comparative research of any kind on single parenthood. Hendrix
(1996) investigated social sanctions against illegitimacy using the
Human Relations Area Files (HRAF) database, finding few main
effects and many complex interactions. (The frequency of illegitimacy has apparently not been coded for the HRAF.) Predicting single parenthood rates is important because of the associated social
problems of crime, poverty, poor health behavior, and drug abuse
(Barber, 2000c; Coley & Chase-Lansdale, 1998).
165
166
METHOD
SAMPLE OF SOCIETIES
167
63%, compared to the world average of 44%, and a per capita gross
national product (GNP) of $3,631, compared to the world average
of $1,698 (based on log averages that remove the undue impact of a
minority of very wealthy countries and thus place the world average much lower than familiar arithmetic averages). These differences were likely due to the exclusion of poorer countries due to the
unavailability of data. Demographically, the sample was quite representative of the world. Thus, the sex ratio of children younger
than 14 was 103.9, close to the world average of 103.4 (Barber,
2000a). The average teen birth rate for the sample was 5.2%, compared to the world average of 6.0% (Population Reference Bureau,
1998).
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
Kurians (1997) data, obtained from the UN Population Division, were the percentage of births that were illegitimate for 1991,
and they are the most recent data available. He cautioned that the
data are distorted by the informality of marriage rituals and legal
registration in many countries (p. 40). This implies that births
that are socially sanctioned by some form of marriage could show
up as illegitimate births in official statistics. Similar caution is
appropriate in dealing with all such UN data. Such error would be
expected to introduce noise in the data, making it more difficult to
find support for the hypotheses.
One surprising aspect of the data is that single parenthood is
reported so commonly. Thus, for 19% of the countries, illegitimate
births accounted for more than 50% of all births. The average rate
of illegitimacy for the 85 countries was 28.50%. Due to the great
variability of illegitimacy rates (ranging from 0.2% in Tunisia to
90.2% in Sao Tome and Principe), the dependent variable was
transformed to base 10 logarithms. The average of log illegitimacy
rates was 1.21 (antilog 16.22%) 0.56 (SD).
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
Two sex ratios were used: the sex ratio of children younger than
14 and the sex ratio of adults aged 15 to 64. These sex ratios were
used as crude indices of marital opportunity and were for 1995, the
earliest year for which this information is provided in the CIAs
World Factbook (CIA, 1995). Ideally, marital opportunity would be
168
measured in terms of the ratio of men aged about 18 to 40, the peak
ages of marriage to women aged 15 to 37 because women marry
about 3 years earlier than men (Guttentag & Secord, 1983), but
data were not available that would permit this kind of precision for
most countries. The sex ratio for adults aged 15 to 64 might seem
most relevant to the marriage market, but it is biased by higher
male mortality in this age range. The supply of marriageable individuals may be of greatest importance at the beginning of the
reproductive career, and this could be more accurately reflected in
the sex ratio of children, which would explain why this ratio is predictive of cross-national differences in teen births (Barber, 2000a).
Female literacy rates were used as an index of female interest in
careers (CIA, 1995). Teen birth rates were the percentage of
women aged 15 to 19 giving birth in 1997 or the most recent year
for which data were available (Population Reference Bureau,
1998). One would expect teen births to be positively correlated
with single parenthood because many teen births are to unmarried
women, although this would be more likely in economically developed countries, where marriage is often later, than in poorer ones.
High teen birth rates are indicative of reduced parental investment (Barber, 2001). Including teen births in the regression analysis had two other purposes: it provided some indication of whether
the relationship between parental investment and single parenthood applied mainly to younger women, and it allowed a possible
explanation of geographic differences in single parenthood (specifically higher rates for the Americas) to be investigated. Male
unemployment rates were for 1991 (United Nations, 2000). It was
predicted that high unemployment would disqualify many men as
desirable marriage partners, thus increasing single parenthood.
CONTROL VARIABLES
169
170
TABLE 1
Correlations Between Independent Variables and Illegitimacy Ratios With Means and Standard Deviations
Illegitimacy
(Log)
Americas
Sex ratio (0-14)
Log GNP
Population
Male unemployment
Female literacy
Teen births
Contraception
Sex ratio (15-64)
Urban (%)
.48*
.28*
.06
.23*
.27*
.00
.44*
.06
.16
.09
.02
.02
.04
.18
.03
.46*
.12
.01
.00
Mean
SD
1.21
0.56
0.29
0.46
*p < .05
.55*
.18
.11
.52*
.58*
.31*
.36*
.47*
103.89
1.71
Male
Population Unemploy- Female Teen Contra- Sex
(Log)
ment
Literacy Births ception Ratio Urban
.03
.22*
.48*
.64*
.40*
.48*
.70*
.09
.12
.06
.24*
.07
.17
.04
.05
.02
.14
.07
3.56
0.58
0.68
0.85
6.73
3.77
.66*
.19
.16
.43*
86.70
18.62
.18
.38*
.51*
5.20
3.87
.27*
.27*
49.17
17.32
.26*
98.51 62.51
4.62 18.99
171
RESULTS
A correlation matrix of illegitimate birth ratios and independent variables is presented in Table 1. From the first column of the
table, it can be seen that illegitimate births were positively related
to teen births and male unemployment and that they were higher
in the Americas. Illegitimacy was negatively correlated with the
sex ratio of children, suggesting that nonmarital births are more
likely if there is a scarcity of young men of marriageable age, but
the correlation with the adult sex ratio did not reach statistical significance. Nonmarital births were unrelated to urbanization or
GNP per capita, suggesting that they do not vary systematically
with level of economic development (but see below). Illegitimate
birth rates were significantly higher in countries having small
populations.
Results of the regression analysis are shown in Table 2. From
the first regression model (Panel A), it can be seen that teen birth
rates were strongly predictive of illegitimacy. With teen births
included, illegitimacy rates were not significantly higher in the
Americas. This means that the higher rates of single parenthood in
the Americas (Table 1) are fully explained by the higher rates of
teen births there. Illegitimacy rates declined as the sex ratios of
children and adults increased.
Contrary to the correlational results, illegitimacy declined with
urbanization of the population but increased with log GNP. Illegitimacy increased with female literacy. These effects were surprisingly large given the lack of any simple correlation. With the other
variables controlled, illegitimacy rates were unrelated to contraception use in a country, consistent with the correlational results.
The first model accounted for 64% of the variance in illegitimacy.
The second model (Panel B) contains the same variables as the
first, with teen births excluded. It explains 50% of the variance,
showing that 14% of the variance in illegitimacy rates was
uniquely explained by teen birth rates. The effect of the Americas
was restored, indicating higher illegitimacy rates for countries in
this region. Otherwise, the effects for the second model were similar to those of the first.
172
TABLE 2
Regression Analysis of Parental Investment Prospects
and Log Single Parenthood Ratios
Predictor
Panel A
Sex ratio (0-14 years)
Sex ratio (15-64 years)
Urbanization
Contraception
Teen births
Female literacy
Male unemployment
Log population
Log GNP
Americas
Constant
Panel B
Sex ratio (0-14 years)
Sex ratio (15-64 years)
Urbanization
Contraception
Female literacy
Male unemployment
Log population
Log GNP
Americas
Constant
SE B
.093
.017
.0042
.0020
.12
.015
.022
.12
.61
.091
8.53
.023
.0085
.0021
.0022
.010
.0021
.010
.046
.067
.086
2.55
4.04**
2.00*
2.00*
0.91
12.00**
7.14**
2.20*
2.61*
9.10*
1.05
.14
.030
.0055
.0035
.0054
.029
.11
.38
.53
16.98
.027
.0099
.0024
.0026
.0025
.012
.046
.079
.10
2.97
5.19**
3.03**
2.29*
1.35
2.16*
2.42*
2.39*
4.81**
5.30**
NOTE: The model in Panel A accounted for 64% of the variance in single parenthood, F(9, 74) = 13.20, p < .01. The model in Panel B accounted for 50% of the variance, F(8, 75) = 8.41, p < .01.
*p < .05. **p < .01.
DISCUSSION
The data provided some support for each of the hypotheses. Specifically, single parenthood increased with both measures of marital opportunity (i.e., sex ratiosHypothesis 1), but the sex ratio of
children was a stronger predictor, evidently because it captures the
ratio of young men to young women better than the ratio of adults
(15 to 64 years old), which is contaminated by the differential mortality of men and women, particularly at the upper age ranges and
for underdeveloped countries where the average life expectancy
falls below 65 years. This result was consistent with a parallel finding for teen births (Barber, 2000a).
173
174
175
side marriage when prospects for paternal investment are diminished received support, skeptical readers may doubt whether there
is a causal connection between paternal investment prospects and
single parenthood rates. One reviewer complained that alternative
hypotheses had not been duly considered. Neither the reviewer nor
the author could devise a noncausal explanation for why single
parenthood would increase with a diminished supply of employed
men and of men of marriageable age, with level of economic development controlled, however. It is possible to construct post hoc
explanations to the effect that both unemployment and a low sex
ratio reduce social sanctions against illegitimacy, for example,
which thereby reduces illegitimacy (Hendrix, 1996), but this is not
really an alternative hypothesis so much as an attempt to fill in the
intervening steps between reduced paternal investment prospects
and illegitimacy. This is worth doing but was beyond the scope of
the present study.
It is interesting that teen births are negatively correlated with
GNP (Table 1) but that single parenthood increases with GNP. A
plausible interpretation is that in affluent countries where women
are active in the workforce, they often delay reproduction while
developing careers (Goldin, 1995), whereas women in poorer countries are likely to be less career-oriented and to begin reproduction
earlier in life whether they are married or not. Another intriguing
difference is that there was a strong negative correlation between
teen births and female literacy (Table 1), whereas single parenthood rises with female literacy. This difference also seems to be due
to career development by women in the sense that their increased
earning power allows them to raise children without the support of
a husband, as previously mentioned. Despite these intriguing differences, rates of illegitimate births respond similarly to teen
births to the marriage market, rising with diminished marital
opportunities for women.
References
Barber, N. (1998a). Ecological and psychosocial correlates of male homosexuality: A cross-cultural investigation. Journal of Cross-Cultural
Psychology, 29, 387-401.
Barber, N. (1998b). The role of reproductive strategies in academic attainment. Sex Roles, 38, 313-323.
176
177
Population Reference Bureau. (1998). World population data sheet. Washington, DC: Author.
Schellekens, J. (1995). Illegitimate fertility decline in England 1851-1911.
Journal of Family History, 20, 365-377.
Smuts, B. B., & Gubernick, D. J. (1992). Male-infant relationships in nonhuman primates: Paternal investment or mating effort. In B. S. Hewlett
(Ed.), Father-child relations: Cultural and biosocial contexts (pp. 1-30).
Hawthorne, NY: Aldine.
South, S. J. (1993). Racial and ethnic differences in the desire to marry.
Journal of Marriage and the Family, 55, 357-370.
South, S. J., & Baumer, E. P. (2000). Deciphering community and race effects on adolescent premarital childbearing. Social Forces, 78, 13791408.
South, S. J., & Lloyd, K. M. (1992). Marriage opportunity and family formation: Further implications of imbalanced sex ratios. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 45, 440-451.
Trivers, R. (1972). Parent-offspring conflict. American Zoologist, 14, 249264.
United Nations. (2000). Statistical yearbook. New York: Author.
Wilson, W. J. (1997). When work disappears: The world of the new urban
poor. New York: Vintage.
Nigel Barber received his Ph.D. in biopsychology from Hunter College of
the City University of New York and has had teaching appointments at
Bemidji State University and Birmingham Southern College. His research
interests in evolutionary psychology include parental investment theory,
physical attractiveness fashions, and gender stereotypes. He is the author of
Why Parents Matter: Parental Investment and Child Outcomes (2000)
and The Science of Romance (2002).