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Store No.

Student
population(1
000)
Qrtrly Sales
($ 000)
Expectation
1 2 58 70
2 6 105 90
3 8 88 100
4 8 118 100
5 12 117 120
6 16 137 140
7 20 157 160
8 20 169 160
9 22 149 170
10 26 202 190
Avg 14 130
Select>> Data>> Data Analysis>> Select 95% confidence>> Ok
Store No. Student population(1000)
1 2
2 6
3 8
4 8
5 12
6 16
7 20
8 20
9 22
10 26
Avg 14
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.950122955
R Square 0.90273363
Adjusted R Square 0.890575334
Standard Error 13.82931669
Observations 10
ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 8
Total 9
Coefficients
Intercept 60
X Variable 1 5
Equation: y=60+5x
To figure out the variability of this>>> means this slope '5' is not constant
Sum (all b1 values)/number of studies conducted or number of samples taken
Qrtrly Sales ($ 000) Expectation/Predicted Y/( Y hat) Y- Y bar (Deviation)
58 70 -72
105 90 -25
88 100 -42
118 100 -12
117 120 -13
137 140 7
157 160 27
169 160 39
149 170 19
202 190 72
130 0
Deviation from the mean (190-130) is understood (because more students eat more pizzas)
But the additional deviation of 12 I cannot explain. (Is the mess food bad? Do they like Dominos a lot?)
This 12 extra has led to an error in our projection
60 out of the 72 units of deviation we know
This 60 out of 72 eventually gives us R-squared
What extent of the deviation can we explain using a regression model?
SS MS F
14200 14200 74.24836601
1530 191.25
15730
Standard Error t Stat P-value
9.22603481 6.503335532 0.000187444
0.580265238 8.616749156 2.54887E-05
To figure out the variability of this>>> means this slope '5' is not constant
Sum (all b1 values)/number of studies conducted or number of samples taken
Squared deviation Error/ (y- y hat) Squared error Average Error Standard Error
5184 -12 144
625 15 225
1764 -12 144
144 18 324
169 -3 9
49 -3 9
729 -3 9
1521 9 81
361 -21 441
5184 12 144
15730 1530
The estimated line leaves us with a standard and an average error
Sum of the squared errors= Total error
Deviation from the mean (190-130) is understood (because more students eat more pizzas) This is total error from 10 colleges
But the additional deviation of 12 I cannot explain. (Is the mess food bad? Do they like Dominos a lot?) Degrees of freedom = n-2
Any data picked up, we lose one degree of freedom. Since we have picked up two variables of data (sales and student population)
What extent of the deviation can we explain using a regression model?
Significance F
2.54887E-05
Lower 95% Upper 95%
38.72472558 81.27527442
3.661905962 6.338094038
191.25 13.82931669
To figure out the variability of this>>> means this slope '5' is not constant
Sum (all b1 values)/number of studies conducted or number of samples taken
R- squared Regression (Mean - Expected Value)
60
40
30
30
10
-10
-30
-30
-40
-60
The estimated line leaves us with a standard and an average error
Sum of the squared errors= Total error
10-2=8
Any data picked up, we lose one degree of freedom. Since we have picked up two variables of data (sales and student population)
FIND The 90% estimate of sale of pizzas in colleges with 30,000 students
Mean 210
Stdev 13.82931669
-1.859548038
New school with 25000 students, how many pizzas do you expect to be sold
185
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
38.72472558 81.27527442 If there are similar new schools, what would you expect to be the range of sales? At 90% confidence
3.661905962 6.338094038
187.2527983
When n=10; y=60+5x
In this case, the '5' means one extra student will give you 5 extra dollars of pizza sales on an average
It is the slope of the line
5 is called the marginal
5 itself hs a mean and a standard deviation
We need to know how much money a student would invest in a pizza?
This value changes for different samples
0.90273363
Normal zone
Number of student
P
i
z
z
a
s

c
o
n
s
u
m
e
d
LOYAL CUSTOMERS
y= 60+ 5x
y= 45+ 6x
y= 70+3x
y=30+8x
To figure out the variability of this>>> means this slope '5' is not constant
Sum (all b1 values)/number of studies conducted or number of samples taken
60+5x
FIND The 90% estimate of sale of pizzas in colleges with 30,000 students
New school with 25000 students, how many pizzas do you expect to be sold
If there are similar new schools, what would you expect to be the range of sales? At 90% confidence
232.7472
In this case, the '5' means one extra student will give you 5 extra dollars of pizza sales on an average
It is the slope of the line
5 is called the marginal
5 itself hs a mean and a standard deviation
We need to know how much money a student would invest in a pizza?
This value changes for different samples
MEAN= 130
COMPETITION
Number of student
Normal zone
y= b0 +b1x
To figure out the variability of this>>> means this slope '5' is not constant
Sum (all b1 values)/number of studies conducted or number of samples taken
Regression line= Expectation line
In actuality, pizza sales may be on/ above/below the line
This means that the expectation versus the actual is being plotted
The long term aspiration for any manager is the mean or the average
In trying to sustain this, the associated worry comes from the variance or the deviation
FIND The 90% estimate of sale of pizzas in colleges with 30,000 students
New school with 25000 students, how many pizzas do you expect to be sold
If there are similar new schools, what would you expect to be the range of sales? At 90% confidence
In this case, the '5' means one extra student will give you 5 extra dollars of pizza sales on an average
We need to know how much money a student would invest in a pizza?
To figure out the variability of this>>> means this slope '5' is not constant
Sum (all b1 values)/number of studies conducted or number of samples taken