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E-Mail: glen@pos.org www.pos.org
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: GLEN BOLGER
RE: KEY FINDINGS NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE SURVEY
DATE: OCTOBER 8, 2014
Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies completed a statewide survey in North Carolina for the Tillis for
Senate campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The survey was conducted
October 4-7, 2014 among 600 likely voters, including 180 cell phone only respondents and has a
margin of error of +4.0% in 95 out of 100 cases.
The sample is 72% white and 21% African American. By party, 32% are Republicans and 41%
are Democrats. Asked for whom they voted for in 2012 for President, 49% say they voted for
Mitt Romney and 49% say they voted for Barack Obama in a state Romney won 51%-48%.
Key Findings
1. Kay Hagan has a turnout problem, and trails Thom Tillis on key measures.
Tillis leads 47%-43% among the 52% of voters who rate their interest in the election as a
10 on a scale of 1-10. Taking it to the next level the 75% of respondents who rate their
interest as an 8-10, Tillis lead holds at 47%-43%. Hagans modest two point lead on the
oversample , while Hagan has her work cut out for her to turnout lower interest voters
who she is winning with.
Looking at vote history, Hagan is winning by nineteen points among 2012 only voters,
and trailing by six among voters who voted in both 2010 and 2012.
2. The overall ballot remains within the margin of error, and the incumbent is well below
50% of the vote. The Libertarians level of support is starting to drop.
Kay Hagan has a huge problem for an incumbent in the same party with an unpopular
President. Her problem is that she can not rise above the mid-40s in the poll. She leads
Thom Tillis 44%-42%, with 6% for Libertarian Sean Haugh (a two point drop for him).
North Carolina Survey Key Findings
October 8, 2014
page two
While both Hagan and Tillis have not been able to break out of the low/mid 40s on the
ballot, Hagan is the incumbent in a party that is in for a rough election. One example is
that undecideds are not happy with the President they give Obama a 37% approve/57%
disapprove rating.
3. These data statistically match a public poll that was released today.
The USA Today/Suffolk University found the Senate race to be a 45% Hagan/45% Tillis
tie on the initial ballot question. In three polls conducted in October by three different
pollsters, Hagan lead has been no greater than two points, which is within the margin of
error, and a drop in her five to seven point lead in some public September polls.
The Bottom Line
Thom Tillis has a clear path to victory despite being outspent in negative attacks by outside
money. Tillis has a momentum advantage. He has a turnout advantage. Democrats will
intensify their attacks in an effort to deny the GOP a Senate majority. This election is going
down to the wire.