Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.

ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,
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HERE.

December 18, 2009 – Home for the Holidays

Home for the Holidays thanks to Fannie & Freddie, more problems for commercial real estate, a
break from Bank Failure Fridays, the daily charts for Gold, Crude Oil, and the Euro, and the
weekly chart for the Dow
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac gives struggling homeowners a break – Home for the Holidays
If you have a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac backed home mortgage and face foreclosure or eviction, you
can stay home for the holidays at least through January 3rd. If you have a Citigroup mortgage and are
in default, you will get a 30-day suspension from foreclosure and eviction. This affects around 4,000
struggling homeowners.
A year ago while Obama’s $75 billion loan modification program was on the drawing board, most major
lenders suspended foreclosures while the details were being hammered out. Since this program only
helped about 4% of the estimated four to seven million expected qualified homeowners foreclosures
picked up again after the grace period ended.
The unwinding of Conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie must begin in 2010 - Many say that
GSE mortgages and debt are backed by the full faith and credit of United States, but this is not an
explicit guarantee. Here’s the statement still shown on the Fannie Mae website:
Fannie Mae debt securities, together with interest thereon, are not guaranteed by the United
States and do not constitute a debt or obligation of the United States or of any agency or
instrumentality thereof other than Fannie Mae.
The unwinding the Conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be come a huge issue in the
second half of 2010, as portfolios must be reduced by 10% by the end of the year.
More Problems for Commercial Real Estate - Sources say commercial real estate mortgage defaults
have more than doubled in the third quarter year over year, and are projected to reach 19% by the first
quarter of 2011. JP Morgan reported that property sales financed with commercial mortgage-backed
securities plunged 95% from a record $237 billion in 2007, as the real estate bubble was beginning to
pop. This lack of securitization is a factor in the decline in commercial real estate values, which are
down 55% from their peak. This is a sharper decline than home values. In some major cities such as
San Francisco, office rents are down 37% year over year in the third quarter. The vacancy rate is up
14% with 1.4 million square feet emptied in the first nine months of the year.
The daily charts for Gold, Crude Oil, the Dollar Index and the Euro
Gold is oversold and below the 50-day simple moving average at $1111.6 this morning. A close today
below $1109 shifts the weekly chart to negative. My quarterly pivot remains at $1135.

Crude oil is positive with the 21-day at $74.44. The weekly chart remains negative with lower highs for
nine consecutive weeks now. The 200-week simple moving average is resistance at $75.74.
The euro is extremely oversold with the 200-day simple moving average as support at 1.4179. The
weekly chart remains negative confirming the Thanksgiving bottom for the dollar.

The Weekly Chart for the Dow shows the failed test of the down trend that goes back to October
2007. Next week Ascending Wedge support is 10,211 with the down trend resistance at 10,475.
Send me your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our
products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

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Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as
well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the
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issues of my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”