MANAJEMEN

RESIKO RESIKO
(RI SK MANAGEMENT)
D E F I N I S I D E F I N I S I
Resiko: Ukuran probability dan konsekwensi
tidak tercapainya tujuan proyek yang telah
ditentukan: could be anything
Tidak mudah untuk diketahui mengingat Tidak mudah untuk diketahui mengingat
probability dan konsekwensi kejadian umumnya
sulit diukur memerlukan pendugaan statistik sulit diukur memerlukan pendugaan statistik
Komponen resiko:
Probability kejadian
Impact dari kejadian
D E F I N I S I D E F I N I S I
Resiko = f(probability, impact)
i
t
y
Tinggi
b
a
b
i
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Resiko
Resiko
Tinggi
P
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b
Rendah
Resiko
Kecil
Sedang
I m p a c t
Kecil Besar
Event
p
D E F I N I S I D E F I N I S I
Resiko disebabkan oleh ketidak
tahuan akan kejadian di masa yang tahuan akan kejadian di masa yang
akan datang opportunity dan risk
Elemen lain dari resiko adalah
penyebab (bahaya) dan kehati-hatian penyebab (bahaya) dan kehati hatian
(waspada):
R ik f(h d f d) Resiko = f(hazard, safeguard)
D E F I N I S I D E F I N I S I
Risk averter (avoider): menyukai hasil
( t ) ti t k d t (outcome) yang pasti untuk dapat
menerima resiko
Risk neutral: menyukai mengambil
tindakan berdasarkan keadaan
( d l ) (expected value)
Risk seeker: menyukai hasil y
(outcome) yang tidak pasti dan berani
mengambil resiko
KETIDAKPASTIAN RESIKO
Decision making under certainty
Ada pilihan yang dominan p y g
Decision making under risk
Pilihan terbaik didasarkan pada nilai harapan
(expected value) yang terbesar (expected value) yang terbesar
Decision making under uncertainty
Maximax: Memaksimumkan profit Maximax: Memaksimumkan profit
Maximin: Meminimumkan kerugian
Minimax: Meminimumkan regret
Laplace: Transform uncertainty to risk
DEFINISI MANAJEMEN DEFINISI MANAJEMEN
S O S O RESIKO RESIKO
Ad l h ti d k t kt k Adalah tindakan atau praktek
untuk mengatasi resiko, meliputi:
Perencanaan resiko
Penilaian (assessing) resiko yang ( g) y g
mencakup identifikasi dan analisis
Penanganan resiko g
Pemantauan resiko
PERENCANAAN RESIKO
(RISK PLANNING) (RISK PLANNING)
This is the process of developing This is the process of developing
and documenting an organized,
comprehensive and interactive comprehensive, and interactive
strategy and methods for
identifying and analyzing risk identifying and analyzing risk
issues, developing risk handling
plans and monitoring how risk plans, and monitoring how risk
have changed.
PENILAIAN RESIKO
(RISK ASSESSMENT) (RISK ASSESSMENT)
This process involves identifying and
l d l analyzing program area and critical
technical process risks to increase the
likelihood of meeting cost likelihood of meeting cost,
performance, and schedule objective
Risk identification: examining the program Risk identification: examining the program
areas and each critical technical process to
identify and document the associated risk
Ri k l i i i h id tifi d Risk analysis: examining each identified
risk issue to estimate the likelihood and
predict the impact of the project p p p j
PENANGANAN RESIKO PENANGANAN RESIKO
(RISK HANDLING) (RISK HANDLING) (RISK HANDLING) (RISK HANDLING)
This is the process that identifies,
evaluates, selects, and
implements one or more strategies p g
in order to set risk at acceptance
levels given program constraints levels given program constraints
and objectives: what should be
done, when it should be done, when it should be
accomplished, who is responsible,
associated cost and schedule associated cost and schedule
PEMANTAUAN RESIKO
(RISK MONITORING) (RISK MONITORING)
This is the process that systematically This is the process that systematically
tracks and evaluates the performance
f i k h dli ti i t of risk handling actions against
established metrics throughout the
acquisition process and provides
inputs to updating risk handling inputs to updating risk handling
strategies as appropriate.
Analisa Resiko Analisa Resiko
(risk analysis)
C i i h i il Comparison with similar systems
Relevant lessons-learned studies
Experience Experience
Result from tests and prototype
development
D t f om enginee ing o othe model Data from engineering or other models
Specialist and expert judgment
Analysis of plans and related documents a ys s o p a s a d e ated docu e ts
Modeling and simulation
Sensitivity analysis of alternatives
Ketergantungan antar Resiko
(risk interdependencies) ( p )
Action Possible Benefit Risk
Work overtime Schedule More mistakes; higher Work overtime Schedule
compression
More mistakes; higher
cost and longer schedule
Add resources Schedule
compression
Higher cost and learning
curve shift compression curve shift
Parallel work Schedule
compression
Rework and higher cost
Reduce scope Schedule
compression and
lower cost
Unhappy customer and
no follow-on work
Hire low-cost
resources
Lower cost More mistake and longer
time period
Outsource Lower cost and Contractor possesses
critical work schedule compression
p
critical knowledge at
your expense
Developing Contingency Plan p g g y
i k id i k i Risk avoidance; Risk prevention:
foolproofing
Risk Mitigation or Reduction: Placing air
bags in cars
Risk Transfer: Risk prevention through
insurance