Economics Extended Essay

Extended Essay
To what extent would the nationalisation of the Singapore Bus Services be

justified?

Name: Aritra Sen
Subject Area: Economics
Word Count: 3975
Candidate Number: 004131 -0030
Exam Session: May 2014
School: Tanglin Trust School

08
Fall
Aritra Sen Extended Essay Candidate Number: 004131 -0030

2
Abstract:

This essay examines the proposed nationalisation of the bus services in Singapore. Bus
services in Singapore are currently run by two private operators, SBS Transit and SMRT.
However, recent complaints have led to both citizens and politicians calling for a
nationalised bus service. For the purposes of this essay, a nationalised public transport
model would entail the bus services being run by one government owned operator, as
opposed to the two existing operators. The question being investigated here is:

To what extent would the nationalisation of the Singapore Bus Services be
justified?

Scope:

Surveys were distributed amongst classmates and co-workers of my parents in an
attempt to assess current satisfaction levels with the bus services. Additional statistics
were gained from a second survey conducted by a local newspaper, and an examination
of annual reports from the two operators as well as the Government regulatory body,
the Public Transport Council.

These statistics were analysed to gain a more accurate understanding of the current
system. The essay then attempted to answer whether nationalisation would solve any of
the current problems. Secondary sources such as textbooks, websites and papers on
nationalisation of utilities were also considered.

Conclusion:

An analysis of the current situation resulted in the conclusion that nationalisation
would not be the ideal solution for the Singapore bus services. It is unlikely that
nationalisation would solve the current problems, and could lead to further issues such
as higher unit costs. The essay looked into a possible solution to some of the current
issues such as overcrowding and delayed services, concluding that the market should be
liberalised to allow some more service providers through a process of Competitive
Tendering with Performance Based Negotiable Contracts. However, the regulatory role
of the Public Transport Council should remain, ensuring that bus fares stay affordable.

Word Count: 298


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Table of Contents

ABSTRACT - 2

INTRODUCTION - 4

CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE - 5,6,7
METHODOLOGY - 7
RESULTS AND ANALYSIS - 7,8,9,10

AN EXAMINATION OF THE DIFFERENT ARGUMENTS
- BUS FARES - 11
- CROWDED BUSES AND LONG WAITING TIMES - 12,13,14
- OBJECTIONS TO THE 1.1 BILLION DOLLAR GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY 14, 15

DRAWBACKS OF NATIONALISATION - 15, 16
OTHER POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS - 17, 18
CONCLUSION - 18

BIBLIOGRAPHY - 19, 20

APPENDICES


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Introduction:

Singapore is a city with an excellent network of roads and highways. Since the prices of
cars are extremely high in Singapore owing to a high tax, many residents opt to use
public transport to travel around the city. Public transport in Singapore consists of cabs,
buses and an underground train system called the MRT, or Mass Rapid Transit (National
University of Singapore, 2010).

In the late 1960s and early 70s, there were 11 different bus operators(Menon & Kuang,
2006). There was no integration of fares or schedules, and the system soon became
unfeasible. Learning from these failures, the government intervened in 1973 and this
led to the merging of ten companies into one: SBS Transit. The second of the two
operators, the Trans Island Bus Service(TISB) was formed in order to provide
competition to SBS. In 2001, the Singapore Mass Rapid Transit Corporation(SMRT)
acquired these bus services (Menon & Kuang, 2006).

Recently, however, there have been calls for the nationalisation of the bus service, led
by the Workers Party, who claim that the wheels have been falling off the once well
run network. These calls became louder when the two operators in charge of the bus
services asked for an increase in bus fares. This led me to the question: To what extent
would the nationalisation of the Singapore Bus Services be justified?. I chose this
question because public transport, particularly buses, are extremely important in
Singapore. The average daily ridership of the Singapore bus services was about 3.48
million passenger trips in 2012 (Land Transport Authority, 2013). Given that the
population of Singapore was 5.31 million in 2012, the bus services clearly play a vital
role in ensuring that people can get around the city effectively. They are operated by
two publicly listed operators, SBS transit and SMRT Corporation, with bus routes all
across the island.

If efficiency were to increase or decrease as a result of nationalisation then it would
impact many commuters. The rationale behind the current market system of two
government subsidised operators is that it would encourage competition due to the
incentive of the firm to make profit. However, does the greater competition really lead
to better efficiency and quality of services for consumers? The main argument against
nationalisation is that it would take away the profit incentive which encourages firms to
become more efficient and competitive. However, many, like the Workers Party argue
that this solution will prevent firms from abusing their market power. It is possible that
if nationalisation were to take place, fares would remain steady. The essay seeks to
analyse the current market structure and failings of the market, before using data and
applications of economic theory to examine the case for nationalisation. Where possible,
alternative solutions shall also be looked at.

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Current Market Structure:

The current market structure has two firms operating the majority of the bus services.
Thus, on first glance it seems to be a duopoly. Indeed, the current model does have some
similarities with the standard model of the duopoly, which involves a high
concentration of the market output in the hands of the two firms. SBS controls 75% of
the market share (SBS Transit, 2013), with SMRT controlling almost all of the rest.

There are strong barriers to entry to the market. The two bus operators have clearly
designated areas of responsibility within which they operate, although there are some
overlaps of routes. The Public Transport Council, henceforth referred to as the PTC,
designates these areas of responsibilities (Menon & Kuang, 2006). Operators who wish
to enter the market may not provide what the PTC refers to as basic services, which
are the bulk of all services provided, including almost all intra town, feeder and trunk
services. Operators wishing to enter the market may only provide supplementary
services, which have much lower connectivity. Furthermore, consumers cannot pay for
these services using bus passes or an EZ link card (similar to an Oyster Card in London,
these cards may be topped up using cash and then scanned when entering and leaving
the bus, which deducts money from the card). Commuters must pay separately for each
time that they use these services, making them less competitive and more expensive.
Thus, competition for the two major bus operators if very limited due to the legislative
barriers of entry.

The presence of clearly divided up areas of responsibility leads to each firm becoming a
de-facto monopoly in the areas in which they operate. Bar a few overlaps in routes, the
bus operators face little competition in their own areas of responsibility. The standard
diagram for a firm in a monopoly seeking to maximize profit can be seen below.
According to their reports, SBS and SMRT both made losses on their bus services in the
last calendar year, which is reflected in the diagram.


6

However, there are some key differences between the structures of a traditional
monopoly (or duopoly for that matter), and those which define the market structure at
present.
In a normal model of a concentrated market, such as a monopoly or a duopoly, firms
have a high degree of market power. This enables them to set their own prices,
qualifying them as price makers rather than price takers. However, the bus fares in
Singapore are heavily regulated by the Public Transport Council. The role of the Public
Transit Council is to ensure that bus fares remain affordable. (Menon & Kuang, 2006)
For example, the PTC did not approve of fare increases for the year 2012 (Singapore
Business Review, 2012). Furthermore, the role of the PTC is not just limited to
maintaining a structure for the fares; it is also involved in ensuring that the two
operators are held to certain standards of accountability(Menon & Kuang, 2006).

A second difference would be the government investment into the two operators. While
the two operators do not receive a direct operating subsidy from the government, they
do receive government investment in aiding the financing of the capital cost of public
transport infrastructure (Menon & Kuang, 2006). This is a significant difference from a
standard model of a monopoly, which assumes that the firm does not receive this
government assistance.

Thirdly, both SBS and SMRT seem to be taking on a degree of corporate social
responsibility, which suggests that they might not be single-mindedly seeking to
maximise profit at the cost of quality services. Both SBS and SMRT purchased buses that
met Euro -5 standards regarding environmental concerns. SMRT also sought to
introduce electric buses, in conjunction with a Chinese firm. The costs of these
initiatives are higher than those that would have been incurred had the firms opted to
buy buses with lower environmental standards. These decisions may not have been
made in a purely profit driven framework.

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In conclusion of my analysis on the market structure, I would suggest that the current
market structure is a government-regulated duopoly, with both firms acting as de-facto
monopolies in their areas of responsibility (again, with the government regulation).

Methodology:

I propose to gather data for my essay in the following ways. Firstly, online surveys shall
be distributed amongst classmates and co workers of my parents. These surveys will try
to assess what the satisfaction levels with the bus system are, what they are willing to
pay for the services and their thoughts when they make a choice in choosing between
two operators. The data generated by these surveys will be combined with data about
the bus services from the Public Transit Council of Singapore(PTC). Secondly, I will look
into data from the reports of SBS Transit and SMRT from 2011 2012, to assess if there
is any abuse of market power by any of the service providers.

Results and analysis: PTC report

The Public Transport Council conducts a yearly survey in an attempt to understand the
satisfaction of the commuters with the bus services. These statistics have been taken
from the most recent PTC report, for the year 2012-2013.


8

Customer satisfaction from the PTC report:

1) Satisfaction Score from 1-10, with 1 being the lowest

Bus Service
Attributes
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Waiting Time 5.8 6 6.2 5.7 5.7
Reliability 6.7 7 6.9 6.8 6.7
Service
Information
7.1 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.1
Bus Stop
Accessibility
7.3 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.2
Comfort 7 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1
Travel Time 6.6 7 7 6.7 6.8
Customer Service 7 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8
Safety and Security 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.5 7.3

Overall
Satisfaction
6.9 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8

(Public Transport Council, 2011)

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Scores given by commuters on a range of
criteria from 1-10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

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2) Percentage of people satisfied by each criterion

Bus Service
Attributes
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Waiting Time 55.5 60.3 64.1 56.3 54.2
Reliability 73.2 79.3 78.4 74.4 74
Service Information 80.5 81.7 82.5 80.7 80.9
Bus Stop
Accessibility
84.3 88.6 90.1 85.7 84.3
Comfort 81 87.9 84.9 82.1 82.8
Travel Time 76.3 81.3 81.4 76 79

Overall Satisfaction 86.9 92.5 90.2 87.1 86.4

(Public Transport Council, 2011)

The table and graph indicate that on a whole, commuter satisfaction with the bus
services has remained more or less constant over the years, with the average rating
varying between 6.9 and 7.2, and the percentage satisfaction varying between 86.9%
and 92.5% (Public Transport Council, 2011). However, a closer examination of the table

10
yields an interesting result. The value for the customer response for the criterion on
waiting time always seems to be significantly lower than the other criteria, as illustrated
by this graph.

Clearly, customers are unhappy with this particular criterion. I chose to carry out some
further research, in order to gain some more information about satisfaction but also to
better understand the dissatisfaction with the waiting times.

Results and analysis: Survey

My survey (attached in the appendix) seemed to support the opinions of the people
surveyed by the PTC. Respondents indicated that they were dissatisfied primarily by the
overcrowded nature of the buses, with the long waiting times at the bus stops.

11

47 of the 79 people said that long waiting times were something they were dissatisfied,
and 51 of the 79 also suggested that they found the buses to be overly crowded. This is
supported further by a survey, conducted by a newspaper in February 2013 amongst
150 random people. The consensus was that they perceived overcrowded buses and
infrequent services leading to time delays as the two major problems in the current
system (Chan & Neville, 2013). Each person was allowed three choices, and a 104 of the
choices selected mentioned overcrowding and a further 41 called for more frequent bus
services (Chan & Neville, 2013).

Having gathered my statistics, I proceeded to use these to analyse the arguments for
and against nationalization.


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An examination of the different arguments

For nationalisation to be justified, there should be evidence regarding the abuse of the
market power by the firms involved. In my investigation, I have looked at two potential
instances of this. Firstly, a deterioration of the quality of services, in the form of
overcrowded buses, infrequent services and long waiting times for a bus at a stop, as
indicated by the gathered data. Secondly, I examined the bus fares for consumers to
investigate whether the firms were abusing their market power to demand higher
prices. This was motivated by public dissatisfaction when the two bus operators asked
the PTC to raise fares.

Bus Fares

Normally in a market structure where the output is concentrated, such as a monopoly or
a duopoly, firms have a significant degree of market power(Dorton & Jocelyn, 2011).
They have the ability to be price makers rather than price takers. In monopolies and
concentrated oligopolies, it is possible that firms will abuse their power in the market
and charge higher prices. If this could be proven, then grounds would exist to call for
nationalisation. Under government ownership, the incentive to make profit would be
reduced, or even removed. Consumers would see more stable prices.

However, an investigation into the bus fares in Singapore reveal that they have not, in
fact, risen substantially. Singaporean Transport Minister Mr Lui Tuck Yew said in a
speech in parliament that between 2006 and 2011, fuel prices had increased by 30%
and national wages by 25%. In comparison, bus fares had risen cumulatively by only
0.3%(SGPressCentre, 2012).

The argument that the bus operators have been abusing their market power to set
higher fares does not seem to be true. There is no evidence to suggest that the bus
operators have been increasing their fares by exploiting their market power. One
reason for this could be the strict regulation from the Public Transport Council.

Crowded buses and long waiting times at the bus-stop

Crowded buses and long waiting times represent a lack of quality in the services
provided by the two companies. It could be an indication that there needs to be an
increase in supply from the suppliers in order to meet the demand, especially during
peak hours. Owing to the high prices of cars in Singapore because of a heavy
government tax, bus services are a necessity (a good with very few comparable
substitutes (Maley & Welker, 2011)) during peak hours of transit. Singapore has about

13
half the number of cars per 100 persons as Tokyo, despite having a similar GDP per
capita. (Land Transport Authority, 2013)

The problems of overcrowding and the lack of sufficient bus services could be
representative of the fact that both the bus companies have not increased their supply
to match the growing demand. In my previous analysis of the market structure, I have
made the claim that because of the presence of clearly demarcated areas of
responsibility; each company is, in its individual areas, a de facto monopoly. Breaking
down the analysis to look at the effect that this could have on the overall supply of bus
services with respect to profitability provided me with an interesting insight.

Here we can see that under normal conditions, a firm under conditions of perfect
competition would produce Q1 units of output at a price of P1. This is simply where
market supply meets market demand, and the firm does not have sufficient market
power to change this. This is because in perfect competition, the market is comprised of
a large number of small firms (Dorton & Jocelyn, 2011). Thus, if one firm were to alter
their supply, the effect of this on the total supply would be negligible. However, under
the existing de-facto monopolies, the market supply is highly concentrated in the hands
of the two bus operators. To increase profits, they can reduce their output, as seen
above. In the diagram above, the firm seeking to maximise profit is producing at the
point where Marginal Revenue meets Marginal Costs, leading to an output of Q2 units

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and a higher price of P2 (Dorton & Jocelyn, 2011) (It is important to note that prices do
not always increase in Singapore for the bus services because of the government
control). However the shortage in supply in peak hours is a concern (Chan & Neville,
2013).
There is no evidence to suggest that the firms have deliberately been contracting the
supply of their buses. However, the results from the surveys suggest that commuters do
feel that buses are overcrowded and infrequent during peak hours. Given the Singapore
governments desire to increase the population of Singapore to 7 million by the year
2030, the strain on the public buses would only increase further. Thus, there is clearly a
need to expand on the range of bus services. Given the Singapore governments desire
to reduce loading levels during peak hours from a maximum of 95% to 85%, it would
make sense to increase the number of buses providing services.

This led the government to consider an investment plan in order to expand the bus
services, which has also led to complaints.

Objections to the 1.1 billion dollar government subsidy to the two bus operators

The Singapore government injected 1.1 billion Singaporean dollars into the two bus
operators as part of their Bus Services Enhancement Program, or BSEP. The aim is to
increase the number of buses by 800(550 from the Government and 250 from the
operators) specifically in order to tackle the problems of overcrowding and delays in
service. This would see an increase in the total output of bus services by 20%(Land
Transport Authority , 2013).

There have been objections , by political opposition, to the Government investing such a
substantial sum of money into two companies (The Workers' Party, 2012), who make
millions of dollars in profit, when considering their other operations, such as MRTs and
taxis (SBS Transit, 2012) (SMRT, 2012). Furthermore, it has been pointed out that the
combined market capitalisation of the two companies is 2.6 billion dollars. This fuels the
argument that nationalisation would be a beneficial solution, seeing that if the
government were to invest similar sums of money in the future, they could end up
spending more than the combined market capitalisation.

The Government counters this by claiming that the 1.1 billion dollars will not contribute
to the profit of the two bus operators. Instead, the revenue derived shall be recovered.
They claim that it is necessary in order to keep fares low and increase the total supply of
buses.

Although the BSEP has reduced waiting times on average by 3-5 minutes (Land
Transport Authority, 2013), it may not be sustainable for the government to
continuously inject these levels of funding into the bus services, particularly if it is

15
experiencing times of economic instability and crisis. The BSEP does solve the problem
in the short run, but is not enough to ensure a long-term efficiency and smoothness in
services. While the money injected may not be directly contributing to operator profits,
it is still a significant use of taxpayers revenue. It would be logical to assume that if
there could be a system, which would reduce government, costs while keeping the
welfare of the consumer in mind, then such a system should be adopted. This led me to
look into competitive tendering later on in the essay.

Drawbacks of Nationalisation

There are several drawbacks that come with nationalising the bus service and putting it
under governmental control.

First of all, a nationalisation of the Singapore Bus Service would take a considerable
amount of government revenue to run. To finance such a project, the government would
have to possibly raise revenue through increased taxation, or use funds from the
government surplus. This could be seen as inequitable on those who do not use public
transport. It is easier for private firms like SBS and SMRT to raise revenue through
investment. The government would find it particularly difficult to raise revenue for
long-term investment projects, something that is crucial in public transport. One of the
major reasons why it was necessary to privatise public bus services in several countries
during the 1970s was the unsustainable nature of a government run model (Hensher &
Wong, 2011). The bus services needed large government subsidies, something that
could not be kept up in face of mounting debt (Hensher & Wong, 2011). This led to
several cities in the United Kingdom, Europe and Australia to privatise their public
transport systems, in the hope that the profit incentive would drive private operators to
lower their unit costs and increase their efficiency.

Building on this point, an examination of the reports of the two bus companies reveals
that both have made losses on their bus operations. SBS have lost around 6 million
dollars (SBS Transit, 2012) and SMRT have lost about 11.6 million (SMRT, 2012).
Keeping in mind that these are private operators driven by a profit incentive and are
likely to do all that they can to keep down their unit costs, a nationalised model would
be a strain on the governments financial capabilities. The lack of a long-term profit
would also take away dynamic efficiency, or the capability of a firm earning abnormal
profits in a monopoly or concentrated oligopoly to reinvest these profits in order to
innovate in their services.

The question of a profit incentive leads us to an examination of a possible efficiency loss

16
in a nationalised bus service. Historical evidence in countries like Britain and Sri Lanka
have shown how privately owned bus service providers could supply their services at
significantly lower unit costs (Hensher & Wong, 2011). This is because government run
operations lack profit incentives, and are often trapped by bureaucratic procedures
(Yeoh, 2013). This reduced efficiency in the model can be explained by X efficiency
theory, suggesting that there will be inefficiency in a model with imperfect competition.
A nationalised bus service would have no competition, and thus may lack an incentive to
increase the quality and efficiency of services.

Thus, nationalisation does not seem to be the answer to the current problems in the
market for bus services in Singapore, namely a shortage of bus services during peak
hours leading to delays and overcrowding, as well as the issue of the 1.1 billion dollars
invested by the government. The government would have to spend far more than that,
given the inherent inefficiencies in the nationalised services and the losses that the two
bus companies already make.

During my investigation, I was struck by the remarkable role that the Public Transport
Council played in ensuring that bus fares remained affordable for most of the
population in Singapore. Given how important bus services are in this city, I decided to
look for a solution that could solve some of the problems in the current system without
reducing the influence of the PTC on the affordability of the services.


17

Possible solutions:

The best solution to the current dilemma regarding efficiency was suggested to me by
the revelation that most people surveyed considered SBS buses and SMRT buses to be
perfect substitutes, on an instance of route overlap.

The answers to this question seemed to indicate elements of Perfect Competition, where
firms sell homogenous products or services. Bus Services cannot operate in Perfect
Competition, because each firm would not make sufficient profit in order to remain in
business, instead they would only make a normal profit (Helm, 2009). However, this
initial thought led me to explore the possibility of liberalising the bus services and
opening it up to some more competition, maybe through the addition of one or two
operators.

The Prime Minister of Singapore has rejected this idea, claiming that it would lead to
cherry picking of routes that are profitable, leading to a disrupted service. Others point
out that liberalizing the market could lead to similar results as pre 1971, where
Singapore had 11 independent bus service providers, with no integration of schedules
and fares which was extremely chaotic (Menon & Kuang, 2006). Opening up the market

18
however, could still entail with it government regulation for the benefit of the
commuters (Bradburd, 1992). Cherry picking of profitable routes, as happened after
Thatcher privatized bus services in the UK (Helm, 2009), can be avoided using
competitive tendering of contracts of bus services. The government could ask service
providers to bid for exclusive rights to provide services on a bundled package of routes,
thus preventing firms from only serving busy profitable routes. The PTC could still play
a strong role, ensuring that bus fares do not become unaffordable for commuters(The
Scarlet Ibis , 2011) (Menon & Kuang, 2006). This would increase the competition of the
market ensuring greater innovation and competition. If these contracts were to be
negotiable based on performance (Negotiable Performance Based Contracts) (Hensher
& Wong, 2011), then there would be a strong incentive for firms to maintain a high
standard of services. Furthermore, increasing the number of service providers would
also take the strain of the growing population of the two present operators, leading to
less crowded buses for commuters.

Conclusion

I started out in order to investigate whether the nationalisation of the Singapore bus
service was an economically viable idea. Through my analysis of data and the
shortcomings in the market, I have reached a different conclusion. Nationalisation could
potentially lead to an inefficient market, with no profit incentives and difficulties in
raising money for long-term investments. True to the vision of the original Land
Transport Master Plan, the market for bus services needs to be opened up to greater
competition to take the load off the two over-burdened operators. There is a need
however, for the existing governmental regulations to apply to ensure the operators
meet standards. The PTC can still play an important role in maintaining the affordability
of bus services for all. Opening up the market would also reduce the financial burden on
the government, which could result in lowering of taxes for Singaporean residents. The
way forward should be a market structure with greater competition and more service
providers, but with similar regulatory structures that can prevent an abuse of market
power by firms.
Limitations to my investigation could be my lack of further primary data. I tried to
conduct interviews at a bus stop during peak hours, but did not gain any satisfactory
responses because most people seemed unwilling and were in a hurry.
Therefore, in reference to my research question, I believe that the nationalisation of the
services would not be justified, as improvements in the present model would be much
more appropriate in solving the present problems.


19

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p31Hensher_DifferentApproachestoPublic.pdf
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problem/
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in_Brief_2013.pdf
Chan, H., & Neville, A. (2013, February 13). No. 1 Peeve: Packed trains and buses. Retrieved October
29, 2013, from Aisaone :
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(2012). Retrieved October 28, 2013, from SGPressCentre:
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Appendices

Questionaire:

Question 1:


22

Question 2


23

Question 3


24
Question 4


25
Public Transport Council - Data Tables

1)
Bus Service
Attributes
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Waiting Time 5.8 6 6.2 5.7 5.7
Reliability 6.7 7 6.9 6.8 6.7
Service
Information
7.1 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.1
Bus Stop
Accessibility
7.3 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.2
Comfort 7 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1
Travel Time 6.6 7 7 6.7 6.8

Overall
Satisfaction
6.9 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8

2)
Bus Service
Attributes
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Waiting Time 55.5 60.3 64.1 56.3 54.2
Reliability 73.2 79.3 78.4 74.4 74
Service Information 80.5 81.7 82.5 80.7 80.9
Bus Stop
Accessibility
84.3 88.6 90.1 85.7 84.3
Comfort 81 87.9 84.9 82.1 82.8
Travel Time 76.3 81.3 81.4 76 79

Overall Satisfaction 86.9 92.5 90.2 87.1 86.4

Economics Extended Essay

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Economics Extended Essay

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Extended Essay

To what extent would the nationalisation of the Singapore Bus Services be

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