An Introduction to Climate Change

What it could mean to you and your family

Climate change is changing our economy, health and communities in diverse
ways. Scientists warn that if we do not aggressively curb climate change now, the
results will likely be disastrous.
The Basics
Carbon dioxide and other global warming pollutants are collecting in the
atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the
planet to warm up.
Although local temperatures fluctuate naturally, over the past 50 years the average
global temperature has increased at the fastest rate in recorded history. Scientists
say that unless we curb the emissions that cause climate change, average U.S.
temperatures could be 3 to 9 degrees higher by the end of the century.
The United States Global Change Research Program (which includes the
Department of Defense, NASA, National Science Foundation and other
government agencies) has said that "global warming is unequivocal and primarily
human-induced" and that "climate changes are underway in the United States and
are projected to grow."
Q:
What causes global warming?
A:
Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere
like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to
warm up. Coal-burning power plants are the largest U.S. source of carbon
dioxide pollution -- they produce 2.5 billion tons every year. Automobiles, the
second largest source, create nearly 1.5 billion tons of CO2 annually.
Here's the good news: technologies exist today to make cars that run
cleaner and burn less gas, modernize power plants and generate electricity
from nonpolluting sources, and cut our electricity use through energy
efficiency. The challenge is to be sure these solutions are put to use.
Q:
Is the earth really getting hotter?
A:
Yes. Although local temperatures fluctuate naturally, over the past 50 years
the average global temperature has increased at the fastest rate in recorded
history. And experts think the trend is accelerating: the 10 hottest years on
record have all occurred since 1990. Scientists say that unless we curb
global warming emissions, average U.S. temperatures could be 3 to 9
degrees higher by the end of the century.
Q:
Are warmer temperatures causing bad things to happen?
A:
Global warming is already causing damage in many parts of the United
States. In 2002, Colorado, Arizona and Oregon endured their worst wildfire
seasons ever. The same year, drought created severe dust storms in
Montana, Colorado and Kansas, and floods caused hundreds of millions of
dollars in damage in Texas, Montana and North Dakota. Since the early
1950s, snow accumulation has declined 60 percent and winter seasons
have shortened in some areas of the Cascade Range in Oregon and
Washington.
Of course, the impacts of global warming are not limited to the United
States. In 2003, extreme heat waves caused more than 20,000 deaths in
Europe and more than 1,500 deaths in India. And in what scientists regard
as an alarming sign of events to come, the area of the Arctic's perennial
polar ice cap is declining at the rate of 9 percent per decade.
Q:
Is global warming making hurricanes worse?
A:
Global warming doesn't create hurricanes, but it does make them stronger
and more dangerous. Because the ocean is getting warmer, tropical storms
can pick up more energy and become more powerful. So global warming
could turn, say, a category 3 storm into a much more dangerous category 4
storm. In fact, scientists have found that the destructive potential of
hurricanes has greatly increased along with ocean temperature over the
past 35 years.
Q:
Is there really cause for serious concern?
A:
Yes. Global warming is a complex phenomenon, and its full-scale impacts
are hard to predict far in advance. But each year scientists learn more about
how global warming is affecting the planet, and many agree that certain
consequences are likely to occur if current trends continue. Among these:
Melting glaciers, early snowmelt and severe droughts will cause more
dramatic water shortages in the American West.
Rising sea levels will lead to coastal flooding on the Eastern seaboard,
in Florida, and in other areas, such as the Gulf of Mexico.
Warmer sea surface temperatures will fuel more intense hurricanes in
the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Forests, farms and cities will face troublesome new pests and more
mosquito-borne diseases.
Disruption of habitats such as coral reefs and alpine meadows could
drive many plant and animal species to extinction.
Q:
What country is the largest source of global warming pollution?
A:
The United States. Though Americans make up just 4 percent of the world's
population, we produce 25 percent of the carbon dioxide pollution from
fossil-fuel burning -- by far the largest share of any country. In fact, the
United States emits more carbon dioxide than China, India and Japan,
combined. Clearly America ought to take a leadership role in solving the
problem. And as the world's top developer of new technologies, we are well
positioned to do so -- we already have the know-how.
Q:
How can we cut global warming pollution?
A:
It's simple: By reducing pollution from vehicles and power plants. Right
away, we should put existing technologies for building cleaner cars and
more modern electricity generators into widespread use. We can increase
our reliance on renewable energy sources such as wind, sun and
geothermal. And we can manufacture more efficient appliances and
conserve energy.
Q:
Why aren't these technologies more commonplace now?
A:
Because, while the technologies exist, the corporate and political will to put
them into widespread use does not. Many companies in the automobile and
energy industries put pressure on the White House and Congress to halt or
delay new laws or regulations -- or even to stop enforcing existing rules --
that would drive such changes. From requiring catalytic converters to
improving gas mileage, car companies have fought even the smallest
measure to protect public health and the environment. If progress is to be
made, the American people will have to demand it.
Q:
Do we need new laws requiring industry to cut emissions of global
warming pollution?
A:
Yes. Voluntary reduction programs have failed to stop the growth of
emissions. Even leaders of major corporations, including companies such
as DuPont, Alcoa and General Electric, agree that it's time for the federal
government to create strong laws to cut global warming pollution. Public and
political support for solutions has never been stronger. Congress is now
considering fresh proposals to cap emissions of carbon dioxide and other
heat-trapping pollutants from America's largest sources -- power plants,
industrial facilities and transportation fuels.
Stricter efficiency requirements for electric appliances will also help reduce
pollution. One example is the 30 percent tighter standard now in place for
home central air conditioners and heat pumps, a Clinton-era achievement
that will prevent the emission of 51 million metric tons of carbon -- the
equivalent of taking 34 million cars off the road for one year. The new rule
survived a Bush administration effort to weaken it when, in January 2004, a
federal court sided with an NRDC-led coalition and reversed the
administration's rollback.
Q:
Is it possible to cut power plant pollution and still have enough
electricity?
A:
Yes. First, we must use more efficient appliances and equipment in our
homes and offices to reduce our electricity needs. We can also phase out
the decades-old, coal-burning power plants that generate most of our
electricity and replace them with cleaner plants. And we can increase our
use of renewable energy sources such as wind and sun. Some states are
moving in this direction: California has required its largest utilities to get 20
percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2017, and New York
has pledged to compel power companies to provide 25 percent of the state's
electricity from renewable sources by 2013.
Q:
How can we cut car pollution?
A:
Cost-effective technologies to reduce global warming pollution from cars
and light trucks of all sizes are available now. There is no reason to wait and
hope that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will solve the problem in the future.
Hybrid gas-electric engines can cut global warming pollution by one-third or
more today; hybrid sedans, SUVs and trucks from several automakers are
already on the market.
But automakers should be doing a lot more: They've used a legal loophole
to make SUVs far less fuel efficient than they could be; the popularity of
these vehicles has generated a 20 percent increase in transportation-related
carbon dioxide pollution since the early 1990s. Closing this loophole and
requiring SUVs, minivans and pick-up trucks to be as efficient as cars would
cut 120 million tons of carbon dioxide pollution a year by 2010. If
automakers used the technology they have right now to raise fuel economy
standards for new cars and light trucks to a combined 40 m.p.g., carbon
dioxide pollution would eventually drop by more than 650 million tons per
year as these vehicles replaced older models.
For more information on hybrid vehicles, see NRDC's hybrid guide.
Q:
What can I do to help fight global warming?
A:
There are many simple steps you can take right now to cut global warming
pollution. Make conserving energy a part of your daily routine. Each time
you choose a compact fluorescent light bulb over an incandescent bulb, for
example, you'll lower your energy bill and keep nearly 700 pounds of carbon
dioxide out of the air over the bulb's lifetime. By opting for a refrigerator with
the Energy Star label -- indicating it uses at least 15 percent less energy
than the federal requirement -- over a less energy-efficient model, you can
reduce carbon dioxide pollution by nearly a ton in total. Join NRDC in our
campaign against global warming.
Q:
How can I argue with a global warming skeptic?
A:
First, determine whether you're talking to a skeptic, or a denier. A genuine
skeptic is someone who can be convinced by evidence, and the scientific
evidence for human-caused global warming is overwhelming. (If you're
dealing with a flat-earther, don't waste your breath.)
For detailed, point-by-point rebuttals to global warming naysayers, see
Grist's How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic.
You should also consult New Scientist's Climate Change: A Guide for the
Perplexed. It rounds up common climate myths and misperceptions.
If these resources don't answer your question, take a look at Real Climate, a
blog by leading climate researchers that delves into climate science in great,
and often technical, detail.




The Consequences of Global Warming
On Weather Patterns
Higher temperatures could lead to increased droughts and wildfires, heavier
rainfall and a greater number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.
More Powerful and Dangerous Hurricanes
Warmer water in the oceans pumps more energy into tropical storms, making them
stronger and potentially more destructive. Even with storms of the same intensity,
future hurricanes will cause more damage as higher sea levels exacerbate storm
surges, flooding, and erosion.

Warning signs today:
The number of category 4 and 5 storms has greatly increased over the past 35 years,
along with ocean temperature.
Hurricane Katrina of August 2005 was the costliest and one of the deadliest
hurricanes in U.S. history and caused economic losses in the order of $125 billion.
Drought and Wildfire
Warmer temperatures could increase the probability of drought. Greater
evaporation, particularly during summer and fall, could exacerbate drought
conditions and increase the risk of wildfires.

Warning signs today:
The 1999-2002 national drought was one of the three most extensive droughts in the
last 40 years.
Warming may have lead to the increased drought frequency that the West has
experienced over the last 30 years.
The 2006 wildland fire season set new records in both the number of reported fires as
well as acres burned. Close to 100,000 fires were reported and nearly 10 million
acres burned, 125 percent above the 10-year average.
Firefighting expenditures have consistently totaled upwards of $1 billion per year.
Intense Rainstorms
Warmer temperatures increase the energy of the climatic system and can lead to
heavier rainfall in some areas. Scientists project that climate change will increase
the frequency of heavy rainstorms, putting many communities at risk for
devastation from floods. Check themap of flood vulnerability in the United States.

Warning signs today:
National annual precipitation has increased between 5 and 10 percent since the early
20th century, largely the result of heavy downpours.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that intense rain events
have increased in frequency during the last 50 years and human-induced global
warming most likely contributed to the trend.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Northeast
region had its wettest summer on record in 2006, exceeding the previous record by
more than 1 inch.
The Consequences of Global Warming
On Health
Hotter weather enables deadly mosquitoes to travel greater distances; carbon
dioxide in the air aggravates asthma and allergies.
Deadly Heat Waves
More frequent and severe heat waves will result in a greater number of heat-
related deaths.

Warning signs today:
In 2003, extreme heat waves claimed as many as 70,000 lives in Europe. In France
alone, nearly 15,000 people died during two weeks of soaring temperatures, which
reached as high as 104 degrees Fahrenheit.
Much of North America experienced a severe heat wave in July 2006, which
contributed to the deaths of over 140 people, including some who owned working air
conditioners.
In the 1995 Chicago heat wave, 739 heat-related deaths occurred in a one-week
period.
Bad Air, Allergy and Asthma
Global warming could increase smog pollution in some areas and intensify pollen
allergies and asthma. Hotter conditions could also aggravate local air quality
problems, already afflicting more than 100 million Americans.
Warning signs today:
Scientific studies show that a higher level of carbon
dioxide spurs an increase in the growth of weeds
such as ragweed, whose pollen triggers allergies and
exacerbates asthma.
The number of pollen allergy and asthma sufferers
has increased worldwide over the last several
decades. Some researchers have suggested that this
could be an early health effect of human-caused
climate change.
Air pollution makes allergies worse: Diesel exhaust particles can interact with pollen
and deliver it deeper into the lung.
Rising temperatures increase ground-level ozone smog production, which presents a
serious threat to asthmatics.
Infectious Disease and Food and Waterborne Illness Outbreaks
Warming temperatures, alternating periods of drought and deluges, and ecosystem
disruption have contributed to more widespread outbreaks of infections like
malaria, dengue fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and diarrheal illnesses. People
living in poverty will be hardest hit by the global surge in infectious diseases.
Warning signs today:
Disease-carrying mosquitoes are spreading as the
climate allows them to survive in formerly
inhospitable areas. Mosquitoes that can carry dengue
fever viruses were previously limited to elevations of
3,300 feet but recently appeared at 7,200 feet in the
Andes Mountains of Colombia. Malaria has been
detected in new higher-elevation areas in Indonesia
and Africa, posing new risks to millions of
impoverished people whose health is already challenged.
Heavy rainfall events can wash pathogens from contaminated soils, farms, and
streets into drinking water supplies. An outbreak of diarrheal illness in Milwaukee in
1993 which affected 403,000 people was caused by the parasite Cryptosporidium,
which washed into the city's drinking water supply after heavy rains.
Higher outdoor temperatures can cause increased outbreaks of foodborne illnesses
such as salmonella, which reproduces more rapidly as temperatures increase.
Another foodborne bacteria, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, once native to subtropical
regions, has expanded its range as far north as Alaska, where in 2004 it sickened
unlucky cruise ship passengers when they ate raw local oysters.
Dangerous Weather Events
A warmer atmosphere can hold -- and dump -- more moisture, contributing to more
intense extreme weather events, which in turn put people's lives at risk.
Warning signs today:
Hurricane Katrina forced the evacuation of 1.7 million
people in 2005, and lead to deaths and long-term
health problems for 200,000 New Orleans residents.
A combination of rising sea levels, reduced snowfall
and increased rainstorms threatens to flood the
homes of 300,000 California residents in the
Sacramento-San Joaquin river delta area, potentially
contaminating the drinking water of 24 million people.
Alternating drought and floods have led to food and water shortages, malnutrition,
mass migrations and international conflict. Some researchers suggest that 50 million
people worldwide could become "environmental refugees" by 2010, displaced by
rising sea levels, desertification, depleted aquifers and intermittent river flooding.
The Consequences of Global Warming
On Wildlife
Rising temperatures ravage coral reefs and melt the habitats of polar bears and
Antarctic penguins.
Ecosystem Shifts and Species Die-Off
Increasing global temperatures are expected to disrupt ecosystems, pushing to
extinction those species that cannot adapt. The first comprehensive assessment of
the extinction risk from global warming found that more than 1 million species could
be obliterated by 2050 if the current trajectory continues.
Warning signs today:
A recent study of nearly 2,000 species of plants and
animals discovered movement toward the poles at an
average rate of 3.8 miles per decade. Similarly, the
study found species in alpine areas to be moving
vertically at a rate of 20 feet per decade in the second
half of the 20th century.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change report found that approximately 20 to 30
percent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk
of extinction if global average temperature increases by more than 2.7 to 4.5 degrees
Fahrenheit.
Some polar bears are drowning because they have to swim longer distances to reach
ice floes. The U. S. Geological Survey has predicted that two-thirds of the world's
polar bear sub-populations will be extinct by mid-century due to melting of the Arctic
ice cap.
In Washington's Olympic Mountains, sub-alpine forest has invaded higher elevation
alpine meadows. Bermuda's mangrove forests are disappearing.
In areas of California, shoreline sea life is shifting northward, probably in response to
warmer ocean and air temperatures.
Over the past 25 years, some Antarctic penguin populations have shrunk by 33
percent due to declines in winter sea-ice habitat.
The ocean will continue to become more acidic due to carbon dioxide emissions.
Because of this acidification, species with hard calcium carbonate shells are
vulnerable, as are coral reefs, which are vital to ocean ecosystems. Scientists predict
that a 3.6 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature would wipe out 97 percent of
the world's coral reefs.
The Consequences of Global Warming
On Glaciers and Sea Levels
Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2040, and sea levels could rise as much as
23 inches by 2100 if current warming patterns continue.
Melting Glaciers, Early Ice Thaw
Rising global temperatures will speed the melting of glaciers and ice caps and
cause early ice thaw on rivers and lakes.
Warning signs today:
After existing for many millennia, the northern section
of the Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica -- a section
larger than the state of Rhode Island -- collapsed
between January and March 2002, disintegrating at a rate that astonished scientists.
Since 1995, the ice shelf's area has shrunk by 40 percent.
According to NASA, the polar ice cap is now melting at the alarming rate of nine
percent per decade. Arctic ice thickness has decreased 40 percent since the 1960s.
Arctic sea ice extent set an all-time record low in September 2007, with almost half a
million square miles less ice than the previous record set in September 2005,
according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Over the past 3 decades, more
than a million square miles of perennial sea ice -- an area the size of Norway,
Denmark and Sweden combined -- has disappeared.
Multiple climate models indicate that sea ice will increasingly retreat as the earth
warms. Scientists at the U.S. Center for Atmospheric Research predict that if the
current rate of global warming continues, the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer
by 2040.
At the current rate of retreat, all of the glaciers in Glacier National Park will be gone
by 2070.
Sea-Level Rise
Current rates of sea-level rise are expected to increase as a result both of thermal
expansion of the oceans and melting of most mountain glaciers and partial melting
of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice caps. Consequences include loss of
coastal wetlands and barrier islands, and a greater risk of flooding in coastal
communities. Low-lying areas, such as the coastal region along the Gulf of Mexico
and estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay, are
especially vulnerable.
Warning signs today:
Global sea level has already risen by 4 to 8 inches in
the past century, and the pace of sea level rise
appears to be accelerating. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change predicts that sea levels
could rise 10 to 23 inches by 2100, but in recent
years sea levels have been rising faster than the
upper end of the range predicted.
In the 1990s, the Greenland ice mass remained stable, but the ice sheet has
increasingly declined in recent years. This melting currently contributes an estimated
one-hundredth of an inch per year to global sea level rise.
Greenland holds 10 percent of the total global ice mass. If it melts, sea levels could
increase by up to 21 feet.