The Tarrance Group Arizona CD 1 (September, 2014)

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: ANDY TOBIN FOR CONGRESS
NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE

FROM: DAVE SACKETT

RE: A SURVEY OF VOTER ATTITUDES IN ARIZONAS FIRST CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT

DATE: SEPTEMBER 5, 2014
________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Andy Tobin for Congress and the National
Republican Congressional Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter
attitudes in Arizonas 1
st
Congressional District. These key findings are based on
telephone interviews with N=405 likely registered voters throughout the district.
Responses to this survey were gathered September 2-4, 2014 and the margin of error
associated with a sample of this type is + 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

KEY FINDINGS

Republican nominee Andy Tobin holds a substantial +8 point lead over Democratic
incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick on a trial ballot test for Congress. Fifty-one percent
(51%) of district voters indicate they would vote for Tobin, while forty-three percent
(43%) indicate they would vote for Kirkpatrick, and six percent (6%) are undecided
on the ballot test.

The tight nature of the Republican primary election has not had any impact on the
general election, and Republicans in the district are firmly united behind Tobin, as he
stands with eighty-nine percent (89%) of the vote among Republican voters. Tobin
also has a +7 advantage on the ballot test among Independents. There is also a
significant amount of partisan cross-over on the ballot, with Tobin getting 18% of the
vote among registered Democrats.

Tobin is quite well established with district voters already and has seventy percent
(70%) soft name ID and a solid 1.8 to 1 favorable to unfavorable ratio.
Congresswoman Kirkpatrick, on the other hand has substantial negatives already and
her favorable to unfavorable ratio is only 1.1 to 1.
201 N Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688
(703) 836-8256 FAX
dsackett@tarrance.com
THE TARRANCE GROUP
www.tarrance.com
The Tarrance Group Arizona CD 1 (September, 2014)
The political environment in the district is substantially different from that which
existed in September, 2012. President Obamas job approval is a net -13 points
weaker now that it was in 2012 and fifty-seven percent (57%) indicate they
disapprove of the job he is doing (including 56% of Independent voters.)

The generic congressional ballot is also a net +7 points stronger now than it was in
September, 2012 and Republicans have a +8 point advantage on the generic ballot for
Congress. The Republican advantage on the generic ballot has increased from +3 in
2012 to +11 now.

Congresswoman Kirkpatricks soft re-elect suffers from both the negative views that
district voters have of President Obama and the anti-incumbent sentiment that exists
in the district. Only thirty-five percent (35%) of district voters believe that she has
done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while fifty-three percent (53%)
indicate they believe it is time for a new person.

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Key Demographics:

Race: White 76.6%
African American 1.2%
Hispanic/Latino 10.8%
Native American 6.2%

Party: Republican 35.9%
Democrat 38.4%
Independent 25.7%