0 calificaciones0% encontró este documento útil (0 votos)
86 vistas6 páginas
Back-to-school spending is projected to reach about $5 billion in 2014, up about 5% from 2013. As of May 2014, Florida added 218,800 jobs year over year, which equates to a 2.9% increase, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Florida's unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 7.3% year over year.
Back-to-school spending is projected to reach about $5 billion in 2014, up about 5% from 2013. As of May 2014, Florida added 218,800 jobs year over year, which equates to a 2.9% increase, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Florida's unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 7.3% year over year.
Back-to-school spending is projected to reach about $5 billion in 2014, up about 5% from 2013. As of May 2014, Florida added 218,800 jobs year over year, which equates to a 2.9% increase, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Florida's unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 7.3% year over year.
2014, CBRE, Inc. State of Florida Retail MarketView TOURISM AND INVESTMENT SPENDING LEAD FLORIDAS ECONOMIC RECOVERY Hot Topics
For 2013, Florida ranked 18 th in the nation in terms of year-over- year growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with real growth of 2.2%. Florida moved above the slowing national average of 1.8% published July 2014 by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research. Floridas population is on track to break the 20 million mark prior to April 1, 2016, surpassing New York as the third most populous state. Area Development magazine awarded Florida the Silver Shovel Award for job creation and economic impact success for the second year in a row. Tax Foundation ranked Florida No. 5 on the list of the best states for startups because of its lack of a state income tax and low unemployment-insurance taxes. According to the Florida Retail Federation, back-to-school spending is projected to reach about $5 billion in 2014, up about 5% from 2013. Amazon started collecting sales tax in Florida on May 1st. Shopping patterns may shift as consumers factor the additional cost into their purchasing decisions. Q2 2014 Figure 1: Total Vacancy -vs- Avg Direct Asking Lease Rate (NNN) Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. *Arrows indicate change from previous year. DIRECT VACANCY 7.0% UNEMPLOYMENT 6.1% NET ABSORPTION 840 K sq. ft. CONSTRUCTION 2.5 Million sq. ft. Economic Influence Floridas economy is leading the nation in job growth and overall recovery in 2014. The state is projected to outpace the nation for the next several years. Floridas annual job growth rate has exceeded the nations rate since April 2012. As of May 2014, Florida added 218,800 jobs year over year, which equates to a 2.9% increase, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Floridas unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 7.3% year over year. By comparison, nationally, unemployment stands at 6.1% compared to the previous years rate of 7.3%. Floridas unemployment rate has been equal to or below the national rate for 13 consecutive months. Retail services, which is composed of retail trade, leisure and hospitality, gained the most jobs, adding 74,900 jobs or 3.7% year over year. These industry job gains were due to increases in grocery stores, beverage stores, restaurants and drinking establishments. The positive job growth is just one component of the economic recovery and strength attributed to the state. According to Washington Economics Group, Florida tourism and recreation spending increased 6.4% in Q1 2014 year over year. Investment spending, or purchases of building materials and business supplies, hit $7.2 billion in March 2014, a 7.4% increase from the same time last year. This increase in spending is leading Floridas recovery. Another recovery indicator was reported by the University of Floridas Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI). The CSI rose in June by four points to 82, a post-recession high. CSI indicators that impact the increase include expectations of personal finances, U.S. economic conditions, and whether it is a good time to buy big- ticket items, such as a car or appliances. $15.00 $16.00 $17.00 $18.00 $19.00 $20.00 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD ASKING RATE $18.56 COMPLETIONS 219 K sq. ft.
Percent Vacancy Asking Lease Rate Total Vacancy
7.4% Average Direct Asking Lease Rate
$18.56 2 Q 2
2 0 1 4
S t a t e
o f
F l o r i d a
R e t a i l
|
M a r k e t V i e w
2014, CBRE, Inc. 2 Figure 2: Market Statistics Housing prices and sales have been holding up, with the median price of a single-family home in Florida increasing 4.3% year over year to $180,000. The stock market continues to make gains and hit new highs despite consistent tapering by the Federal Reserve in its bond- buying program known as Quantitative Easing III. Leasing Activity Floridas retail markets have slowly recovered. Total vacancy stood at 7.4%, decreasing 10 basis points (bps) from Q1 2014 and 60 bps from Q2 2013s 8.0% rate. South Florida vacancy in Q2 2014 was 6.5%, with the Miami market posting the lowest vacancy rate of 3.9%. North Florida had a total vacancy rate of 8.1%, with the Orlando market posting the lowest rate of 7.2%. The year- over-year vacancy comparisons show a 40 bps decrease for South Florida and a 70 bps decrease for North Florida. The Jacksonville market had the largest year- over-year decrease, dropping 90 bps to 9.6% from 10.5% in Q2 2013. The average lease rate for Florida was $18.56 per sq. ft. In South Florida, the average lease rate in Q2 2014 was $24.29 per sq. ft., an increase of $1.49 year over year. The year-over-year growth equates to a 6.5% gain, reflecting an increase in demand for prime retail assets in the South Florida markets, especially Miami. The average lease rate for North Florida in Q2 2014 was $14.23 per sq. ft., a $0.34 decrease year over year, or 2.3%. Leasing activity in Q2 2014 was strong, with five of the six markets posting positive net absorption, and statewide net absorption totaling 840,407 sq. ft. Year-to-date absorption continues to be positive for the state, with 1,304,180 sq. ft. posted. South Florida accounted for 417,054 sq. ft. and North Florida markets posted 887,126 sq. ft. of positive net absorption. All three North Florida markets posted positive year-to-date absorption above 200,000 sq. ft. Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. Submarket Building sq. ft. Direct Vacancy (%) Total Vacancy (%) Occupancy (%) Q2 2014 Net Absorption 2014 Net Absorption Under Construction Avg Dir Asking Lse Rate (NNN) Miami 42,010,015 3.8 3.9 96.1 82,021 148,713 1,857,984 $40.35 Broward 47,948,815 7.7 7.8 92.2 259,579 301,692 72,000 $20.82 Palm Beach 43,852,469 7.6 7.7 92.3 (800) (33,351) 246,468 $18.14 Tampa Bay 67,283,648 6.8 8.0 92.0 194,512 343,624 0 $14.35 Orlando 63,029,021 7.1 7.2 92.8 216,069 340,048 121,832 $13.95 Jacksonville 37,725,137 9.3 9.6 90.4 89,026 203,454 235,645 $14.47 Total State of Florida 301,849,105 7.0 7.4 92.6 840,407 1,304,180 2,533,929 $18.56 Total South Florida 133,811,299 6.5 6.5 93.5 340,800 417,054 2,176,452 $24.29 Total North Florida 168,037,806 7.5 8.1 91.9 499,607 887,126 357,477 $14.23 Figure 3: Avg Dir Asking Lease Rates (NNN) Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. $15 $16 $17 $18 $19 $20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Figure 4: Net Absorption (5,000) (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 000s of sq. ft. Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. YTD $18.56 YTD 1.3 Million sq. ft.
3 Q 2
2 0 1 4
S t a t e
o f
F l o r i d a
R e t a i l |
M a r k e t V i e w
2014, CBRE, Inc. 3
Development At the close of Q2 2014, there was 2,533,929 sq. ft. of retail space under construction in Florida. Approximately 73% of this new product resides in the Miami market. A significant large-scale project underway in Miami is Brickell City Centre, a 5.4-million-sq.-ft., mixed-use project that will feature 565,000 sq. ft. of retail space. Retail deliveries for the first half of the year occurred in three markets with Tampa Bay, Orlando and Broward leading the way. Tampa Bay delivered 147,850 sq. ft., Orlando had 100,218 sq. ft. and Broward with 70,650 sq. ft. The retail construction pipeline is likely to grow throughout the state with planned projects commencing in the second half of 2014. Mass transportation has made gains in Florida, particularly in Central Florida, with the arrival of SunRail, the regions first commuter train on May 1, 2014. SunRails primary purpose is to be an alternative to driving on Interstate-4. It is being built in two phases. Phase 1 opened with a two-week free trial period, during which 10,000 passengers rode the line. Daily ridership is expected to average about 4,300 passengers by the end of the first operating year. SunRail Phase 2 is expected to be fully completed sometime in 2017. SunRail will eventually connect to the All Aboard Florida rail line with service to Miami. Sales Activity In Q2 2014, 3.3 million sq. ft. of retail space changed hands in 39 transactions and was valued at more than $442 million. Transactions increased in Q2 2014 compared to Q1 2014, which garnered 2.3 million sq. ft. in 37 transactions with a value of $437 million. Year-to-date activity amounts to 5.5 million sq. ft., 76 transactions and $879 million changing hands. Trading of Class A retail assets has been brisk for the last two years and inventory for sale has dwindled. Buyers are shifting to Class B and Class C properties because of the value add opportunity they present. They are trading at a greater frequency as sellers are motivated to unload while the market is active. New developments in prime, densely populated areas are on the rise, fueled by consumer demand and tourism. According to market professionals, interest rates are decreasing for quality Class B or better community and power centers. They forecast cap rates will remain flat in the second half of 2014, with interest and borrowing rates having the most impact. Outlook Tourism spending and investment spending have helped Floridas economy recover. The moderate growth is a shift from the boom and bust period in employment and productivity that characterized the last ten years. Florida retail markets have improved, with high-quality assets trading at a premium and scarcity of quality product driving new construction. With the creation of a regional rail system, new retail corridors will be created and old corridors will be enhanced. Figure 5: Under Construction and Completions Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. 000s of sq. ft. Figure 6: Sales Volume $0 $2 $4 $6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Billions of $ 2014 YTD # Deals Total sq. ft. Volume $ Per sq. ft. Miami 8 387,323 $97,700,000 $252 Broward 21 1,487,778 $235,380,000 $158 Palm Beach 7 830,256 $232,448,925 $280 Tampa Bay 20 1,253,413 $122,046,583 $97 Orlando 10 811,258 $127,898,282 $158 Jacksonville 10 746,405 $63,525,000 $85 State of Florida 76 5,516,433 $878,998,790 $159 Figure 7: Sales Volume by Market Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. Real Capital Analytics, Q2 2014. Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. Real Capital Analytics, Q2 2014. YTD $879 Million Under Construction 2.5 Million sq. ft. YTD Completions 319 K sq. ft. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 4 Q 2
2 0 1 4
S t a t e
o f
F l o r i d a
R e t a i l
|
M a r k e t V i e w
2014, CBRE, Inc. 4 Figure 8: Under Construction as of 06/30/2014 Market Property/Address Submarket Building sq. ft. Average Asking Rate Miami Brickell City Centre/700-701 S Miami Ave, Miami Coral Gables/S Miami 565,000 Negotiable Miami IKEA/ NW 117th Ave, Miami Doral/Medley 417,000 Negotiable Miami Fontainbleau Park Plaza/9271 W Flagler St, Miami West Miami 234,491 Negotiable Miami Fontainebleau Square/9801 W Flagler St, Miami West Miami 179,593 Negotiable Jacksonville Nordstrom/Town Center Blvd, Jacksonville Southside 158,000 Negotiable Miami Design District/140 NE 39 St, Miami Miami Shores 150,000 Negotiable Palm Beach Delray Place/E Linton Blvd, Delray Beach Delray Beach 130,000 Negotiable Orlando Gateway Crossing/831 S SR 434, Altamonte Springs Seminole Co 70,775 Negotiable Miami Royal Palm Garden Plaza/W 80th St, Hialeah Gardens Hialeah 70,000 Negotiable Broward Deer Creek Commons/3599 W Hillsboro Blvd, Deerfield Beach NE Broward 62,000 Negotiable Palm Beach Village Green Center/2773 State Rd 7, Wellington Wellington/Royal Palm 61,500 Negotiable Palm Beach Delray Village Shoppes/Linton Blvd, Delray Beach Delray Beach 54,968 $22-37.00 Miami Walmart Neighborhood Market/6991 SW 8th St, Miami Coral Gables/S Miami 54,000 Negotiable Miami Palmetto Gardens Plaza/3711 NW 167th St, Miami Gardens Carol City/Opa Locka 53,000 Negotiable Orlando Undisclosed/8387 International Dr, Orlando Southwest Orange Co 51,507 Negotiable Miami Shoppes at Civica/1050 NW 14th St, Miami Central Miami 50,000 Negotiable Jacksonville Shoppes on Riverside/150 Riverside Ave, Jacksonville Westside 49,870 Negotiable Miami West Kendall Village West Kendall 47,900 Negotiable Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, May 2014. Figure 10: Labor Market Statistics Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, May 2014. Figure 11: Florida Jobs by Sector Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20% Professional and Business Services 15% Education and Health Services 15% Total Government 14% Leisure and Hospitality 14% Financial Activities 7% Construction 5% Manufacturing 4% Other Services 4% Information 2% Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. Figure 9: Delivered Q2 2014 Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. Market Property/Address Submarket Building sq. ft. Average Asking Rate Tampa Bay Walmart/15100 N Nebraska Ave, Tampa Hillsborough 147,850 Negotiable Broward West Lake Commons/1700 Sheridan St, Hollywood SE Broward 70,650 Negotiable MSA/County Labor Force Employment Unemployment Unemploy% Miami-Dade 1,282,788 1,185,038 97,750 7.6 Broward 1,069,429 1,013,944 55,485 5.2 Palm Beach 663,162 623,981 39,181 5.9 Tampa Bay MSA 1,361,546 1,277,469 84,077 6.2 Orlando MSA 1,197,233 1,129,305 67,928 5.7 Jacksonville MSA 726,372 683,998 42,374 5.8 Florida 9,632,000 9,043,000 589,000 6.1 United States 155,841,000 146,398,000 9,443,000 6.1 5 Q 2
2 0 1 4
S t a t e
o f
F l o r i d a
R e t a i l |
M a r k e t V i e w
2014, CBRE, Inc. 5 Figure 12: Q2 2014 Sales Figure 13: Q2 2014 Leases Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. Real Capital Analytics, Q2 2014. Market Property/Address Submarket Tenant Transaction sq. ft. Orlando Park Promenade/2704 Hiawassee Rd, Orlando Northwest Orange Co Roses 58,030 Tampa Bay Colony Crossings/10005 Hillsborough Ave, Tampa Southeast Hillsborough Gaming Business 42,112 Orlando Highland Lakes Ctr/7305 Colonial Dr, Orlando Northwest Orange Co Falls Discount Stores 41,980 Miami Biscayne Retail Center/19915 Biscayne Blvd, Aventura Aventura Stein Mart 36,000 Palm Beach Shoppes at City Centre/11201 US Hwy 1, North Palm Beach North Palm Beach Doris Italian Market 22,258 Jacksonville Riverplace Shopping Center/11111 San Jose Blvd, Jacksonville Mandarin World Market 21,750 Tampa Bay Terrace Walk Plaza/5611 Fowler Ave, Tampa Northeast Hillsborough Planet Fitness 21,500 Tampa Bay Carolyn Lane Shopping Center/11613 Nebraska Ave, Tampa Northeast Hillsborough Kingdom Worship 20,800 Miami Lincoln Road Mall/400 Lincoln Rd, Miami Beach Miami Beach Gap, Inc. 19,000 Jacksonville Gateway Town Center/5184 Norwood Ave, Jacksonville Northside YouFit Health Clubs 17,676 Orlando Forest Edge Plaza/5701 Edgewater Dr, Orlando Northeast Orange Co Roses 15,000 Miami 1001-1021 Lincoln Rd (Apple)/1001 Lincoln Road, Miami Beach Miami Beach Apple Store 13,827 Jacksonville Roosevelt Square/4495 Roosevelt Blvd, Jacksonville Westside Party City 13,200 Miami RK Causeway Plaza/12255 Biscayne Blvd, Miami North Miami TJ Maxx 11,000 Tampa Bay Waters Hanley Plaza/7501 Waters Ave, Tampa Northwest Hillsborough Undisclosed 10,800 Broward St. Mina's Plaza/2623 St Rd 7, Lauderhill Cntrl East Broward South Florida Urgent Care & Orthopedic 10,162 Jacksonville Avenues North Retail Center/9357 Philips Hwy, Jacksonville Baymeadows/Avenues Kalyaan Market 8,042 Tampa Bay Sabala Plaza/14100 Walsingham Rd, Largo Mid Pinellas Get Fitness 7,460 Jacksonville Avenues North Retail Center/9357 Philips Hwy, Jacksonville Baymeadows/Avenues Uniforms of Central FL 7,190 Broward Embassy Lakes Shopping Center/2503 Sheridan St, Cooper City SW Broward True Value 7,000 Market Property/Address Buyer Building sq. ft. Sales Price Palm Beach Cross Country Plaza/4346-4370 Okeechobee Blvd Cross Country Owner LLC 351,337 $35,000,000 Broward Westfork Plaza/15801 Pines Blvd DRA Advisors 251,783 $44,850,000 Jacksonville fmr Super Target/1919 Wells Rd Garden Ridge 174,639 $5,600,000 Tampa Bay Sun Point/3022-3074 College Ave E Saglo Development Corporation 132,374 $7,250,000 Broward University Marketplace/8030-8384 N Pines Blvd RXR Capital Holdings 125,704 $12,500,000 Palm Beach Delray Square/4755-4973 W Atlantic Ave TKC CLXXVIII 115,538 $7,665,000 Tampa Bay Shoppes of Apollo Beach/6402 N Us Hwy 41 Publix Supermarkets Inc 111,606 $12,800,000 Jacksonville Home Depot/1919 Wells Rd Normandy Properties, LLC 108,578 $9,650,000 Orlando Boulevard Plaza/300 W Lake Mary Blvd Branch Properties 105,380 $11,540,000 Broward Riverside Square/8100-8268 Wiles Rd Global Fund Investments, Inc. 104,241 $12,380,000 Orlando Lake Mary Village/3899 Lake Mary Blvd W Crow Holdings 100,088 $27,000,000 Broward Paraiso Parc/15701-15729 Pines Blvd DRA Advisors 88,850 $40,500,000 Miami Multi-Property Sale/41-65 E Flagler St TIR Prime Properties 84,821 $11,500,000 Tampa Bay Bloomingdale Plaza/121 E Bloomingdale Ave Slate Properties Inc 83,192 $8,800,000 Tampa Bay River Bay Shopping Center/9802 US Hwy 301 S Mountain View Capital 78,000 $5,775,000 Broward Park View Square/17101 Miramar Pkwy PE | ARC Shopping Center REIT 75,000 $14,500,000 Jacksonville St Johns Plaza/2220 County Rd 210 W PE | ARC Shopping Center REIT 71,370 $13,000,000 Tampa Bay Anclote Corner Shopping Center/1919-1965 N Pinellas Ave 1919 North Pinellas Ave LLC 70,000 $2,300,000 6 Q 2
2 0 1 4
S t a t e
o f
F l o r i d a
R e t a i l
|
M a r k e t V i e w
2014, CBRE, Inc. 6 CONTACTS For more information about this State MarketView, please contact: + 60 million sq. ft. 45 60 million sq. ft. Below 45 million sq. ft. Inventory Size Tampa Bay Inventory Vacancy % Asking Rate 67,283,648 8.0% $14.35 NNN Miami Inventory Vacancy % Asking Rate 42,010,015 3.9% $40.35 NNN Broward Inventory Vacancy % Asking Rate 47,948,815 7.8% $20.82 NNN Palm Beach Inventory Vacancy % Asking Rate 43,852,469 7.7% $18.14 NNN Orlando Inventory Vacancy % Asking Rate 63,029,021 7.2% $13.95 NNN Jacksonville Inventory Vacancy % Asking Rate 37,725,137 9.6% $14.47 NNN Shanna Drwiega Research Analyst CBRE 101 East Kennedy Boulevard, Suite 1500 Tampa, FL 33602 t: +1 813 273 8433 e: shanna.drwiega@cbre.com Quinn Eddins Director, Research and Analysis CBRE 777 Brickell Avenue Suite 900 Miami, FL 33131 t: +1 305 428 6325 e: quinn.eddins@cbre.com Abu I. Mansoor Senior Research Analyst CBRE 200 East Las Olas Boulevard, Suite 1620 Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301 t: +1 954 331 1733 e: abu.mansoor@cbre.com GLOBAL RESEARCH AND CONSULTING CBRE Global Research and Consulting is an integrated community of preeminent researchers and consultants who provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting, and corporate and public sector strategies to investors and occupiers around the globe. Additional research produced by Global Research and Consulting can be found at www.cbre.com/researchgateway. DISCLAIMER Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. FOLLOW CBRE