Impact of variability

on engineering projects
Dr. Jos Humberto Lora Arcila
Dean School of Engineering
U i id d A t d Y t Universidad Autnoma de Yucatn
Selected Topics in Construction
Civil Engineering August-December 2014
Engineering Projects
E i i j t h b ildi t ti Engineering projects, such as building construction,
involve a large number of specialty tradesthat
ll k i ti i d ti generally work in a continuing and repeating
sequence as they move from one floor (station x) to
th ( t ti ) another (station y).
Specialty trades typically work as subcontractors to
steel erection drywall glazing
p y yp y
the general contractor and may include:
steel erection
decking
formwork
drywall
mechanical
electrical
glazing
vertical transportation syst.
fire protection systems
concrete rb
concrete
plumbing
roofing
environmental controls
etc.
Engineering Projects
Gus Sestrup, superintendent with Turner
Construction, says these contractors work sequences
should be performed as a parade of trades.
Example parades are (Riley and Sanvido 1997) as follows:
Structural Parade: eg erecting structural steel (steel Structural Parade: e.g., erecting structural steel (steel
erector); placing and securing deckingas well as welding
shear studs(decking contractor); and placing rebar (rebar shear studs(decking contractor); and placing rebar (rebar
contractor), then pouring and finishing concrete(concrete
contractor).
Structural Parade: e.g., erecting structural steel (steel
erector); placing and securing deckingas well as welding
shear studs(decking contractor); and placing rebar (rebar
contractor), then pouring and finishing concrete(concrete
contractor) contractor).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J Ng3IY64uts
Engineering Projects
Overhead Work Parade: e.g., installing a HVAC system
(mechanical contractor), sprinkler system(fire protection
contractor) emergency lighting(electrical contractor) and contractor), emergency lighting(electrical contractor), and
pipe(plumbing contractor).
Perimeter Enclosure Parade: e.g., building perimeter walls,
placing windows, installing flashing, and applying
sealants.
I t i Fi i h P d i t lli ll t d ti Interior Finishes Parade: e.g., installing wall studs, routing
electrical conduit, placing insulation materials, hanging
drywall and painting drywall, and painting.
Engineering Projects
Tradesinvolved in any of the previous parades are
comprised by workers with different skills and
perform at different levels of productivity.
Furthermore there are other factors that affect their Furthermore, there are other factors that affect their
performance, such as:
sequencing of tasks sequencing of tasks
accessibility to the working area
crew size crew size
concentration of work
materials availability materials availability
etc.
Engineering Projects
Te overall impact of the interaction of many different
trades, in the setting previously described, upon the
majority of engineering projects is usually named
variability, or unreliability.
Many in construction deem variability as a necessary
evil But many others disagree and call it bad evil. But many others disagree, and call it bad
construction management practice, particularly
during the planning phase during the planning phase.
Let us then analyze and understand how variability
i i i j impacts on engineering projects.
Variability
Apt or liable to vary or change.
The extent to which data points in a statistical
distribution, or data set, diverge from the average g g
or mean value.
Example:
Th i th f h i thi The weigth of each person in this room.
Causes of variability,
in production processes: p p
Natural variability, which includes minor fluctuations in y
process times due to differences in operators,
machines, and materials. ,
Random failures.
Change of process.
Availability of operators Availability of operators.
Reworks (due to bad quality). ( y)
Causes of variability,
in production processes: p p
Labor Measurements
M hi E i t Machinery Environment
Materials Methods
Output variability (characteristics of quality)
In many production systems, there are many
atributes which variability is of great interest: atributes which variability is of great interest:
Physical Dimensions. y
Process or execution times.
R i ti i t f il Repair times or equipment failure.
Quality Measures.
Temperatures.
Hardness of materials Hardness of materials.
Etc., etc.
Variability and randomness
Variability is associated closely with randomness,
however these two ARE NOT IDENTICAL.
Perspectives on randomness
1) This is due to that we have imperfect (or
incomplete) information, and systems appear to
behave randomly
VS.
2) The universe really behaves randomly 2) The universe really behaves randomly.
Two types of variation
Controllable variation occurs as a direct result of
our decisions our decisions.
R d i ti i lt f t th t Random variation is a result of events that are
beyond our immediate control.
Variability is inevitable
Some degree of variability is natural.
Some degree of variability is caused by the way
k ( d i ) i d i i d work (or production processes) is administered.
Measures of variability
To analyze variability effectively, we must first be
able to measure it able to measure it.
Variance, denoted
2
, is an absolute measure of
variability. variability.
Standard Deviation ( ), defined as the square
root of the variance.
However ...
... the measures of central tendency, such as
variance and standard deviation do not variance and standard deviation, do not
provide a complete view of a distribution.
For example:
Distributions A and B are symmetric about their Distributions A and B are symmetric about their
means, but differ in the distribution of their data.
One could then say that:
Distribution A shows more variabilitythan Distribution A shows more variabilitythan
Distribution B.
We must also consider:
Absolut variability Absolut variability
VS VS.
Relative variability
Engineering Projects
Let us take a brief survey on the implementation of
some "engineering projects.
For example, what is the duration that you estimate to
complete the following projects? complete the following projects?
.
Project My Estimate
Mi
3
f t Mix m
3
of concrete
Build a 10 m
2
CMU wall
B ild 4 4 b d Build a 4 m x 4 m bedroom
Build a 60 m
2
dwelling unit
Build a building like this one Build a building like this one
Proyecto
Durations
Mine Min Max Proyecto
Mix m
3
of concrete
Build a 10 m
2
CMU wall
Mine Min. Max.
Build a 10 m CMU wall
Build a 4 m x 4 m bedroom
Build a 60 m
2
dwelling unit g
Build a building like this one
Normal Distribution
Let us performe a practical example:
An engineering project consisting in the production of
100 artifacts 100 artifacts.
Each artifact has 5 components.
Each component is produced by an individual
engineer engineer.
Each engineer commits to produce 5 components
per week.
Schematic design of a single artifact:
Component 5
E i 5
Component 4
Engineer 4
Engineer 5
Component 3
Engineer 3
Engineer 4
Component 2
Engineer 2
Engineer 3
Component 1
Engineer 1
Engineer 2
Engineer 1
Components of a single artifact:
Finished artifact:
Artifacts:
Grouping of 5 artifacts:
Grouping of 10 artifacts:
But now we wonder
if each engineer is commited to produce the
components he/she is responsible for, with an
output of 5 components per week,
How long will take to each engineer to produce
the 100 components he/she is responsible for? the 100 components he/she is responsible for?
What will be the total duration of the project?
15 20 25 30
S
t
a
t
i
o
n
:
100 100
5 10
I mpact of variability on engineering projects
Dr. Jos H. Lora Arcila
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Let us see how reality works:
Station
1
Station
2
Station
3
Station
4
Station
5
100
Supplier Buffer Buffer Buffer Buffer Finished
6 4 6 4
Parade of Trades
Instructions:
Integrate two teams of 5 Engineers.
Each team will determine which Engineer will be
responsible for each station (Stations 1 to 5).
One student will play the Supervisor role, and another p y p
student will play the Supplier role.
The Supervisor will provide a copy of Annex 1 to each p p py
Engineer, and will provide the Supplier with the
engineering packages required for each team. The
engineering package consists of 500 components engineering package consists of 500 components
required to produce 100 artifacts.
The Supplier will release to each team an engineering The Supplier will release to each team an engineering
package.
Instructions (2):
In the correspondent boxes on Annex 1, each engineer
will write down the station number he/she is responsible
for and the dies distribution for, and the dies distribution.
Beginning with Station 1, each engineer should roll the
die and produce the number of components determined die and produce the number of components determined
by the die.
/ Then, each engineer should assemble his/her
components to the artifacts in process.
Warning: Despite of the number indicated by the die,
the number of produced components cannot exceed
the number of artifacts in process available to the number of artifacts in process available to
manufacture.
Instructions (3):
The engineer in Station n will pass to the engineer in
Station n+1 the number of artifacts in process indicated
by the die or just the ones available in his/her buffer by the die, or just the ones available in his/her buffer.
Each engineer should document (register) on Annex 1 the
number of artifacts in process he/she is pasing to the number of artifacts in process he/she is pasing to the
engineer in Station n+1, and the number of artifacts in
process remaining in his/her buffer. Furthermore, should p g ,
graph the cumulative number of artifacts in process
he/she already passed to the engineer in Station n+1.
Repet the process as many times as needed, until each
engineer completes his/her share of 100 units.
Instructions (4):
Register the number of times required to complete 100
units, and calculate the average number of units
produced each week produced each week.
Engineer 1 2 3 4 5 Team Engineer 1 2 3 4 5 Team
No. of times to
produce 100
artifacts artifacts
Averageper
week week
Average= 100 / No. de times toproduce 100 artifacts
TeamsAverage= 500 / Sumof No of times of all engineers TeamsAverage= 500 / Sumof No. of times of all engineers
This slide is left blank to present the results of
the Parade of Games simulation by the students the Parade of Games simulation by the students
Therefore, variability impacts on:
Longer production cycles
L i t i f k i Larger inventories of work in progress.
Waste or misuse of installed capacity Waste, or misuse, of installed capacity.
Lost of throughput.
Th h t b f k it l t d b th Throughput: number of work units completed by the
project duration.
Variability can be handled:
Reducing variation
- Make work flow more reliable Make work flow more reliable.
Using buffers (delays, inventories, storage).
- Resources: espace, time and others.
- Installed capacity Installed capacity.
Changing trades (size, composition) and tools to
compensate for variations, and to keep balance
among production processes.
Thus, we could conclude than:
Variability is inherent to all production processes, y p p ,
and may have a major impact upon performance.
Therefore, the ability to measure, understand
and handle variability is capital to manage and handle variability is capital to manage
engineering projects.
Recommended bibliography:
Tommelein, I.D., Riley, D. and Howell, G.A. (1999). Parade Game: Impact
of Work Flow Variability on Trade Performance. ASCE, Journal of
C t ti E i i d M t 105 (5) 304 310 S t/O t Construction Engineering and Management, 105 (5), 304-310, Sept/Oct.
Alarcn, L.F and Ashley, D.B. (1999). Playing Games: Evaluating the
I t f L P d ti St t i P j t C t d S h d l P Impact of Lean Production Strategies on Project Cost and Schedule. Proc.
Seventh Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean
Construction, IGLC-7, 26-28 July, held in California, Berkeley, 12 pp
Mitropulos, P., Alves, T. and Wwalsh, K.D. (2014). Parade Plus: A
Simulation Game for Investigating and Teaching Strategies for Managing
Production Variability and Dependence. Proc. Construction Research
Congress 2014, ASCE, 19-21 May, held in Atlanta, Georgia, 10 pp.