1.

Introduction
The scarcity of water is one of the major problems especially in the developing countries.
More than 1 billion people in the world don't have clean drinking water access (1. More
than !." million people die each year from water#related disease$ %& percent are children.
'early all deaths( )% percent( occur in the developing world (*. +s water demand has
increased over the last half#century( signs of water shortages have become common place
(Miller( 1)%).
,ue to decreases in the availability and -uality of traditional water resources( harvested
rainwater is increasingly used for potable and non#potable purposes. In rural as well as
urban areas around the world( there is a lack of access to potable water. In this conte.t(
the practice of rainwater harvesting (/01 is becoming important (&.
/01 serves for two purposes2
# 3otable purpose 2 1arvested /ainwater are directly used for drinking. In urban areas(
this is not possible because of the intrusion of contaminants like dirt( silt( pathogens(
heavy metals etc.
# 'on#potable purpose2 1arvested /ainwater are stored in a durable tank and used for
different indoor and outdoor activities like flushing toilet( watering gardens( bathing( car
washing( dish washing( washing clothes etc e.cept drinking.
+verage american use )% gal4capita4day of water (". 5f this only 1 gal4capita4day is used
for drinking purpose. That means about )) 6 water is used for 'on#potable purpose. If
some amount of rainwater can be harvested in each household of the urban area and
stored in the tank( it relieves a certain portion of water demand from the water authority
of that urban area. This decrease in demand in lieu will decrease the natural resources and
energy re-uired to treat the water. /01 is more attractive to the urban consumers
because significant amount of water as used for non potable purpose and they are paying
7&8&4yr in their water bills (". 9nited :tates water authorities are also spending *%."
billion dollars just to treat water and convey to thier consumers(". :ince( 9: population
is increasing day by day( building new infrastructure to treat water is not only energy
intensive but also time consuming( e.pensive and unsustainable.
0ater resource sustainability is defined by ;arry 0. Mays (*<<) as =The ability touse
water in sufficient -uantities and -uality from the local to the global scale to meet the
needs of humans and ecosystems for the present and the future to sustain life( and to
protect humans from the damanges brought about by natural and human#caused disasters
that affect sustaining life.=
/01 addresses all the issues pointed out in this definition of water sustainability. 'atural
disasters like earth-uake or human caused disasters like water terrorism are easily
diverted as there is no pipes involved to convey water from treatment plant to mass
population.
This report wants to focus mainly on risk assessment of /01 for non potable use in
urban areas. >or risk assessment( three -uestions are often asked (?aplan and @arrick
1)%12
0hat can go wrongA
0hat is the likelihood that it would go wrongA
0hat are the conse-uencesA
/isk management builds on the risk assessment process by seeking answers further
to three -uestions (1aimes 1))12
#0hat can be done and what options are availableA
#0hat are the associated tradeoffs in terms of all costs( benefits( and risksA
#0hat are the impacts of current management decisions on future optionsA
The risk of /01 is = demand of water that is not met= by rainwater source which means
demand has to be met my conventional tap water. The main purpose of this report is to
find out the optimum tank siBe for a single household which ma.imiBe the /01 and
minimiBe the use of tap water.The risk assesment of the rainwater harvesting is further
illustrated below (0ang and Clackmore *<<)2
# >ailure to meet the demand planned to be supplied by the rainwater tank
# /elative risks of rainwater tanks of different siBes not meeting the demand
*. Materials
Though a rainwater tank system in a household is seemingly simple( the
interaction of
supply#demand in the temporal domain and the variability in climate condition as well as
in water
usage pattern make a closed#form solution impossible (0ang and Clackmore( *<<).
The risk assessment is performed for a whole year from 1st ,ecember *<1< to !<th
'ovember *<11. The following assumptions are made to make to calculations simple2

1. + single household in :an Dose Eity is considered.
*. /ainwater tank is assumed to be filled only by rainfall runoff. It is also assumed to
beclosed and leak free.
!. If instantaneous demand is not met by tank it is supplied by tap water.
&. The Fvavotranspiration is assumed neglegible because most of the precipitation is
during cold winter season.
". 5nly two types of demand are incorporated2 toilet flushing and garden watering for
simplicity.
G. The tap water price remains same during whole year.
*.1 /oof /unoff Model
The runoff from the roof from certain precipitation is collected by gutter and pipe
connection which is thenconveyed to the tank. The -uantity of the runoff on the roof area
depends on the intensity of rainfall( evaporation( roof type that effect the water retained in
the roof( and some loss of runoff due to splashing and gutter overflow. /oof runoff may
also depend on roof material and slope of the roof( however ;iaw and Tsai (*<<& found
that the difference of retention between and inverted#H iron sheet and a level cement roof
is neglegible. 5ne of the roof runoff model presented by Mitchell et al. (*<<% will be
used here2
/i I >i J :i#1 # 5i (KI <
or(
5i I >i J :i#1 # /i
0here(
/i I /ate of runoff at time step i (in4min
>i I /ainfall intensity at time step i (in4min
:i#1 I 0ater retained in the roof at time step (i#1 (in
5i I /oof depression storage capacity at time step i (in
Fi I Fvapotranspiration (in4min
Then( 0ater retained in the roof at time step i ( :i( is given by(
:i I 5i # Fi (KI<
where(
Fi is the evapotranspiration rate in in4min. The net volume of water retained in the roof
area +( (:i(+ is given by(
:i(+ I :i L + # >
where(
> I Fffective roof area loss factor which is the portion of the roof runoff loss due to
splashing and gutter overflow and it is assummed to be "6 of total roof runoff.
+ I /oof area of /01( assumed to be !<<< s-. ft.
*.* Tank storage model
The process of filling the tank by roof runoff( overflow from the tank when it's full and
supplying the water when it's needed is the ongoing process. The tank capacities used for
this study is !<< ( ""<( 1<<<( 1"<<( *"<<( !<<<( "<<< and 1<<<< gallons. + model
presented by Mitchell et al. (*<<% will be presented here2
Holume of water in the tank Hi( (in gallons before spillage at time step = i = is given by(
Hi I H(i#1J :i
where(
H(i#1 I Holume of water at time step (i#1
:i I /unoff at time step = i =
E I Tank Eapacity
The -uantity of spillage at time step = i = 3i is given by(
3i I Hi # E (KI<
0ater yield( Mi which is subject to demand ,i at time step i is given by
Mi I Hi # 3i ( IN ,i
*.! Toilet >lushing
0ith the lack of detailed data( the flushing of toilet is assumed to be flushed at an average
of & times a day by each occupants (0ang and Clackmore( *<<). 5ccurrences of toilet
flushing are assumed to be independent of each other and assuming there are & occupant
in the household( there will be 1G flushes a day. The low flush toilets( which uses about *
gallons of water per flush( is common now a days so it is used for the study.
*.& @arden 0atering
Manual handheld hose is the most used watering method (/oberts( *<<". To incorporate
the seasonal variation in the watering behavior( it is assumed that the garden is watered
every other day during summer and only once a week during winter season. 0atering is
not needed during winter time because of fre-uent rainfall also. The total area of the
garden is !<<< s-. ft. The garden is assumed to be watered for !< minutes with average
flow of " gal4min.
*." /ainfall
/ainfall is clearly the most dominant factor for /01. 0ithout rainfall no /01 model
can work. The study is conducted in :an Dose city area where most of the rainfall occurs
in the winter season and has low wind condition. :o( the loss of runoff due to evaporation
is neglected in this study because it accounts for neglegible role the rain tank yield.
however( in locations of warm climate and of high wind( the effect of evaporation
may become notable (0ang and Clackmore( *<<). ,aily rainfall data are collected
from a website for :an Dose Eity from ,ecember 1( *<1< to 'ovember !<( *<11 for
whole year /01 analysis.
!. Methodology
Two different risk assesment methods will be discussed as well as one cost analysis of
/01 vs conventional tap water will be performed. /isk is commonly defined as a
measure of the probability and conse-uence of adverse effects (e.g. +:4'O: &!G<
*<<&$ 1C *<! *<<&.
!.1 3artitioned Multi#objective /isk Method (3M/M
5ne approach that e.presses not only the average risks but also captures the significance
of
catastrophic events is the partitioned multi#objective risk method (3M/M (1aimes
*<<&. In addition to the unconditional e.pected risk( the 3M/M considers conditional
e.pected risks of a number of partitioned e.ceedance probability ranges. It was
developed for the purpose of solving multi#objective problems of a probabilistic nature
(0ang and Clackmore( *<<). Cy partitioning the conse-uence a.is (and the
corresponding probability a.is into a number of sub#ranges( the 3M/M generates
a number of conditional e.pected#value functions (termed risk functions( one for each
range( which represent the risk given that the conse-uences fall within specific ranges
of the probability of e.ceedance (1aimes *<<&. >igure 1 shows an e.ample of
partitioning the probability a.is into three ranges and mapping these partitions onto the
conse-uence a.is.
>igure 1 2Mapping of the probability partitioning onto the conse-uence a.is
/isk of the conse-uence i.e. demand not met by specific storage tank capacity and a
sample of siBe 1<<< obtained by Monte#Earlo simulation( a risk curve e.pressing the
annual probability of e.ceedance versus the amount of demand not met can be
derived( as shown in >igure *. It is clear in >igure * that when the rainwater tank
capacity becomes larger( the -uantity of demand not met becomes less$ i.e. the risk curve
shift to the left.
>igure * 2 +nnual e.ceedance probability versus demand not met (0ang and Clackmore
*<<)
!.* Holumetric /eliability
+ fre-uently used performance measure in rainwater tank analysis is the
volumetric reliability( defined as the total volume of water supplied divided by the total
demand during a period of time. ;et M denote the water supplied by the tank and ,
the demand( then for a time period with a number of time steps '( the volumetric
reliability /v is e.pressed by
Theoretically( /v will approach 1 when the tank capacity approaches infinity.
!.! 5ptimal Tank capacity
0e have to choose one optimum tank siBe which has high enough volumetric reliability
as well as minimiBe the annual water cost. Theoritically( we can choose a very large tank
with volumetric reliability close to 1(which can collect all the rainwater that poured into
the roof( but( the initial cost will be so high that the consumer will not be able to afford it.
:o( an optimal tank capacity should be determined which minimiBes the total cost. The
annual water cost means the metered water cost and the rainwater tank cost
averaged over its lifetime. Maintenance cost is not considered in this study. Therefore( the
annual tank ac-uisition and metered water cost( Ea( is given by
0here(
Ew I Metered water cost per k;.
The tank cost data for various siBes of tanks are found online from web site. The tank life
is assumed to be *< years. It can also be seen that if there was no tank involved( it
becomes just the cost of tap water use. The tank siBe with lowest value of Ea will be the
optimal tank capacity for given tank life.
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