1

1.1

1.1.1
1.1.2
1.1.3

1.2

2.1

2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1.4
2.1.5
2.1.6

2.2

2.3

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5

2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.2.4
2.2.5
2.2.6

4.1

4.1.1
4.1.2
4.1.3

4.2

4.2.1
4.2.2

4.3

()

1.1.
1.1.1.
20 1904
(Vilhelm Bjerknes)

((
))

1922 (Lewis Fry Richardson

64000

1-1


1948
Jule Charney

1950 (John Von Neumann

1950

1954

(1958 )(1959 )

500

1950

500 1961

1.1.2.

(())

()
1-2

()

(100
100 )

()

1950 2004 FLOPS(floating

operations per second)

1-3

1960 (())

()

(())

1957

()

1-4

1.1.3.
1950 2000

1950

1960
1970

1980

1990
2000

(MIPS*)
0.01

()
1-2

2-3

150-300

2-5

10

4-5

150-200

6-15

50-100

5-6

120-150

15-20

6-7

60-120

30-60

10

20-40

>60

>500

()
300

*MIPS Millions of instructions per second,

15

)()

1-5

1.2.
1985

(Global Telecommunication
System, GTS) 1996
GTS
1999
GRIB
2002

1986

1997

Operational Regional Spectral ModelORSM
ORSM 1999 12
CRAY SV1-1A(()) 16
19.2 GFLOPS

1-6

() SV-1

()

60 20 ORSM

ORSM
ORSM

20
60 ()
1-7

()

()

60 ORSM
3

ORSM
(
: http://www.weather.gov.hk/cgi-bin/hko/nwp.pl)

(())(())
(())

1-8

()

()

1-9

()

1-10

2.1

(analytical
solution)
2-1

2.1.1

(rotating coordinate frame)

(air parcel)

d
1
V = P 2 V + g + F r

dt

(1)

V P
(1)
(pressure gradient force)
(Coriolis force) g (
) F r (1)
(local Cartesian coordinates) x - y - z -

(1)(a)(1)(b)(1)(c) ()

d
+ V = 0
dt

(2)

V V

P = RT

(3)
R T

cv

dT
d
+P
=Q
dt
dt

(4)

(4) c v Q (specific heat at

2-2

constant volume) ( = 1/ ) (diabatic

heating rate)(4)(internal energy)
(work done)

(3)(4)
P = RTv

cp

dq
dT
dP
dT

= Q L c l ml
dt
dt
dt
dt

(3*)
(4*)

Tv = (1 + 0.608 q ) T (virtual temperature) q = v /

(specific humidity) v c P
(specific heat at constant pressure) m l
L (latent heat) c l
(3*)(4*)(3)(4)
(4*)
Q

dq S
=
dt

(5)

(5)S

(1)(5)

2-3

(1)(5)
(cloud water)(cloud ice)(graupel)
(mixing ratio)

2.1.2
2.1.1

(a)
(b)
(c)

(model resolution) 1

()

() ( 2002 11 )

9.5

10

12

12

12

15

20

28

2-4

 10

(sub-grid
scale)

(grid scale)

2.1.3
2.1.1

(i)

(ii) (discretization)
2-5

(i)

(quasi-geostrophic approximation)
(hydrostatic approximation)

(incompressible approximation)
(Boussinesq approximation)

50

(primitive equation model)

2.2.1

2.1.4

2-6

(discretization)

(1) (Finite difference method)

(2) (Spectral transform method)
(3) (Finite element method)

()

(a)

10

15

20

10

25

15

(b)
20.5

18.7

15.8

27.0

25.1

21.9

31.0

29.0

25.6

30
20

30

25

(c)

()

(a) (b)

(c) 60 ORSM ()

2-7

()

(2.1.5 )
(staggered grid)
() C
(Arakawa C grid) ()

u () v
T P
q

(spherical harmonics)
(sinusoidal)(basis function)
(())

()

2-8

(Fourier transform)

(element)

()

()

2-9

2.1.2 ()

(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast)

2.1.5

(consistency)
(convergence)(stability)
(time step)(grid spacing)

(advection)
(Eulerian)(Lagrangian)

2-10

(Semi- Lagrangian)

15

2.1.6

()
(Operational
Regional Spectral ModelORSM)
(nested grid)

2-11

 20
60 ()

(Mercator map projection) 151 145

36

()2.2.6

60

16 10
30 20
60

()

60 ORSM ( 20 )

2-12

()

ORSM p

2.2

(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)

2-13

2.2.1

()

2.1.3

()

(
)

()

2-14

2.2.2

ORSM

(non-hydrostatic pressure perturbation)

(buoyancy force)(precipitation drag)
(temperature
anomaly)
2.1.1

()

2.2.3
(Grid point model) (Spectral
model)2.1.4

2-15

(a)

(c)

()

(b)

(d)

(a) (b)
(c)(d)

2-16


( ) (Gibbs
phenomenon)

()

(Gibbs
phenomenon)

2-17

2.2.4

50
( 1200 11
) 10
10
110

10

40

2.2.5

2.2.5

(truncation error)
()

2-18

()

40-60

()

10-20

()

1-5

()

0.1-1

200
()
(ambiguity)
50
50
200

200
50

2-19

2.2.6

z z
z P
= ln P = P / Ps ( Ps )
(potential temperature = T (1000 / P )R / c )
z
p

( z )

p
= g < 0
z

(6)

P z
P
P

( 1)

(entropy)

z P ()

z z sfc
z TOP
z * =
z TOP z sfc

2-20

(7)

TOP
sfc TOP

(8)

TOPsfc
(7) z TOP z sfc

(8) z
(hydrostatic pressure)
(mass
coordinate)Weather Research
and Forecasting Model

()

2-21

Ps


ORSM
(()) P


(lapse rate)

2.3

2-22

(NWP)

(initial condition)

NWP

NWP
(())

()

3.1.

(ORSM) 20
80

3-1

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

(
)

():
()

(NWP)

NWP

(tropical cyclone bogus data)

3-2

ORSM
(
())

(a)

(b)

(c)

()

60 ORSM
3-3

3.2.

(Global
Telecommunication System GTS)
GTS GTS

GTS (())

()

GTS

(encode)
GTS

(alphanumeric)

3-4

(())(binary)
(decode)

()

3.3.

1.

2.

3-5

3.

4.

3.4.

:
1.
0-360
100 /

2.

3.

4.

3-6

5.

3.5.

(objective analysis)

(data
assimilation cycle) (())
(background data)

(())

ORSM

3-7

()

()

60 ORSM

3-8

(a)

(b)

3-9

(c)

()

(ORSM) 60 (a)
2004 6 23 8 500 (b)
ORSM 6 (c)
(
) (
)

3-10

4.1

4.1.1

(())

4-1

()

4.1.2

()(())

4-2

()

4.1.3 ()

(kalman filter)
(perfect prog method)(model output
statistics)
4-3


(systematic biases)

(())
3

R.M.S. Error (degree C)

2.5

1.5

KF

HKA

HKO

TKL

DMO

HKA

HKO

TKL

0.5
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

F/C hour

Fig.1 Verification results of Kalman-filtered ORSM temperature time series (00UTC run, averaged over the period May 2000-June 2002)

()

ORSM
(2000 5 2002 6 )

(())

4-4

()

4-5

4.2

4.2.1

(1)

(2) 10

(3)

(4)

(spin-up)

4-6

4.2.2

Edward Lorenz1960

1972

()

4-7

4.3

(ensemble
forecast)

(poor mans ensemble)

()

4-8

()

4-9