Solvency Answers: Wake Forest Debate

Wake Forest Debate 1 / 49
Matt Struth
SOLVENCY ANSWERS

Matt Struth
Say No

Matt Struth
1NC
Maduro will say no-
A. Chavismo nationalism
Meacham, 13 -- CSIS Americas Program director
[Carl, "The Kerry-Jaua Meeting: Resetting U.S.-Venezuela Relations?" CSIS, 6-21-13,
csis.org/publication/kerry-jaua-meeting-resetting-us-venezuela-relations, accessed 7-20-13, mss]

Q2: Does the Venezuelan government want good relations? A2: Despite recent discussions with the United States,
it doesnt seem to be the case. Earlier this year, the Venezuelan government suspended talks between the U.S. State
Department and Venezuelan Foreign Ministry that had begun in late 2012, citing alleged U.S. meddling in Venezuelas April
election. The Maduro government has also largely followed the Chvez playbook, constantly accusing the United
States of assassination plots, spying, and economic and political sabotage. While the Kerry-Jaua meeting may have made for
nice headlines, its difficult to imagine that the Venezuelan government will not play the anti-U.S. card
again, if needed. This week, Calixto Ortegaappointed to handle matters with the United Stateswill meet with Assistant Secretary of State
for Western Hemisphere Affairs Roberta Jacobson to continue discussions and establish a new set of concrete goals to guide the relationship
forward. These good-faith gestures made by the Venezuelan government are neither new nor unheard of. Despite
recent efforts, U.S. policymakers should temper any positive expectations, as a core basis of Chavismo is
its anti-U.S. ideology. Its of course difficult to improve relations with a government that consistently defines
itself as vehemently against your foreign policy agenda. This suggests that Venezuela may be looking to reestablish a purely
economic relationshipone that will eliminate U.S. sanctions. Still, even if certain positive steps are taken, history suggests
that the Venezuelan government could quickly scuttle progress made, likely with the goal of Maduro
shoring up support within his own ranks.
B. Backlash over Powers comments
Neuman, 13 -- Andes Region correspondent (William, "Venezuela Stops Efforts to Improve U.S.
Relations," NY Times, 7-20-13, www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/world/americas/venezuela-stops-efforts-
to-improve-us-relations.html?_r=2&)

Venezuela announced late Friday that it was stopping the latest round of off-again-on-again efforts to improve relations with
the United States in reaction to comments by the Obama administrations nominee for United Nations ambassador. The
nominee, Samantha Power, speaking before a Senate committee on Wednesday, said part of her role as ambassador would be to
challenge a crackdown on civil society in several countries, including Venezuela. President Nicols Maduro had already
lashed out on Thursday at Ms. Power for her remarks, and late on Friday the Foreign Ministry said it was terminating
efforts to improve relations with the United States.
C. Snowden controversy
RT, 13 ["Kerry vows to put the screws to Venezuela over Snowden report," 7-19-13,
rt.com/news/kerry-threatens-venezuela-snowden-308/, accessed 7-22-13, mss]

Kerry vows to put the screws to Venezuela over Snowden report
US Secretary of State John Kerry has reportedly promised his Venezuelan counterpart to close NATO airspace to the
countrys flights and stop crucial oil product deliveries if Caracas grants asylum to NSA leaker Edward Snowden. Last
Friday night, just hours after Venezuela agreed to provide political asylum to former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, Kerry personally called
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua, a Spanish ABC media outlet cites a source familiar with the conversation as saying. Kerry reportedly
threatened to ground any Venezuelan aircraft in Americas or any NATO countrys airspace if there is the slightest suspicion that Snowden is
using the flight to get to Caracas. The media outlet's source said that the US top diplomat sent a clear signal that Venezuelas Air Force One is
not immune and President Nicolas Maduro could easily face the same fate as his Bolivian counterpart Evo Morales, whose plane was grounded
for inspection in Austria earlier this month in violation of all international diplomatic agreements. Immunity is for the president, not the plane,
the ABC source cites Kerrys personal message to President Maduro as saying. Closing all NATO member countries aerospace to Venezuelan
flights means avoiding 26 countries in Europe and two in North America. Under this scenario, it would be safer for Snowden to fly across the
Matt Struth
Pacific from Russias Far Eastern city of Vladivostok instead of crossing the Atlantic. Kerry also reportedly promised to intensify the
ongoing process of revoking US entry visas to Venezuelan officials and businessmen associated with the deceased President
Hugo Chavez. Washington will also begin prosecuting prominent Venezuelan politicians on allegations of drug trafficking, money laundering
and other criminal actions, Kerry allegedly said, and specifically mentioned some names in his conversation with the Venezuelan FM. He
reportedly also said that Washington is well aware of Venezuelas dependence on the US when it comes to refined oil products. Despite being
one of the worlds largest oil producers, Venezuela requires more petrol and oil products than it can produce, buying around 500,000 barrels of
gasoline every month, roughly another half million barrels of fuel for power plants, and some 350,000 barrels of MTBE (Methyl Tertiary Butyl
Ether) the additive used for to increase octane in gasoline. The source added that the US Secretary of State bluntly warned that fuel supplies
would be halted if President Maduro continues to reach out to the fugitive NSA contractor.

Matt Struth
2NC Frontline
Venezuela will say no- Hardliners will win out
Meacham, 13 -- CSIS Americas Program director
[Carl, "The Kerry-Jaua Meeting: Resetting U.S.-Venezuela Relations?" CSIS, 6-21-13,
csis.org/publication/kerry-jaua-meeting-resetting-us-venezuela-relations, accessed 7-20-13, mss]

Conclusion: In short, relations between the United States and Venezuela have a rocky track record that recent
headlines cannot obscure. And while there are undoubtedly members of the Venezuelan government who want
to improve relations, its difficult to see their argument winning over the more hardline Chavistas in the
government, who would likely see any steps to building ties as betraying the cause.
Anti-US conspiracy theories guarantee it
Drezner, 13 -- Tufts University international politics professor
[Daniel, "Why post-Chavez Venezuela won't be a U.S. ally anytime soon," Foreign Policy, 3-7-13,
drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/03/07/why_post_chavez_venezeula_wont_be_a_us_ally_anytime_
soon, accessed 7-21-13, mss]

So, with Chavez's passing, it would seem like a no-brainer for his successor to tamp down hostility with
the United States. After all, Chavez's "Bolivarian" foreign policy was rather expensive -- energy subsidies to Cuba alone were equal to U.S.
foreign aid to Israel, for example. With U.S. oil multinationals looking hopefully at Venezuela and Caracas in desperate need of foreign
investment, could Chavez's successor re-align foreign relations closer to the U.S.A.? I'm not betting on it, however, for one simple
reason: Venezuela might be the most primed country in the world for anti-American conspiracy theories.
International relations theory doesn't talk a lot about conspiracy thinking, but I've read up a bit on it, and I'd say post-Chavez Venezuela
is the perfect breeding ground. Indeed, the day of Chavez's death his vice president/anointed successor was
already accusing the United States of giving Chavez his cancer. Besides that, here's a recipe for creating a
political climate that is just itching to believe any wild-ass theory involving a malevolent United States: 1) Pick
a country that possesses very high levels of national self-regard. 2) Make sure that the country's economic
performance fails to match expectations. 3) Create political institutions within the country that are semi-
authoritarian or authoritarian. 4) Select a nation with a past history of U.S. interventions in the domestic body politic. 5)
Have the United States play a minor supporting role in a recent coup attempt. 6) Make sure the United States is closely
allied with the enduring rival of the country in question. 7) Inculcate a long history of accusations of nutty, American-led conspiracies
from the political elite. 8) Finally, create a political transition in which the new leader is desperate to appropriate any popular tropes used by the
previous leader. Venezuela is the perfect breeding ground for populist, anti-American conspiracy theories.
And once a conspiratorial, anti-American culture is fomented, it sets like concrete. Only genuine political reform
in Venezuela will cure it, and I don't expect that anytime soon.

Matt Struth
A2 Econ Forces Engagement
Econ is fine- no collapse coming
Stranko, 13 -- Latin American Private Equity & Venture Capital Association director of communication
[James, Avenida America editor-in-chief, "The Venezuelan Economy: Three Myths and Three Truths,"
No Se Mancha, 3-7-13, semancha.com/2013/03/08/the-venezuelan-economy-three-myths-and-three-
truths/, accessed 7-21-13, mss]

Hugo Chavez is still dead. But as Cornelius Fleischhaker notes, the Venezuelan economy isnt yet. Despite Chavezs best
attempts to reform Venezuela into a Bolivarian socialist state, the countrys businesses have adapted to increasingly hostile
realities to keep doing business. Although political succession rumblings are reaching a fever pitch, most Venezuelans rich and poor
have their mind squarely on the economy, and where its going in the absence of its post prolific actor over the past fourteen years. There are a
number of ways to create a more business friendly Venezuela, but before we can right the wrongs, we ought to address the persistent myths that
plague our understanding of the Venezuelan economy. I begin with three common believes about the Venezuelan economy that are, in fact, myth.
1) Venezuela has been in economic decline since Chavez took office. Despite persistently high inflation (running neck-and-neck with
Argentina) over the past several years, real economic growth has puttered along at a slow pace, averaging 3.5 percent
annually since Chavez assumed office. This figure betrays the vastly misallocated oil wealth the country has received, but no
signs point to contraction. 2) All wealthy Venezuelans have left, and all big business too. Many wealthy Venezuelans, following in the
footsteps of wealthy Cubans in the 1960s, sought returns abroad after the ascension of an anti-market leader. But there are still plenty of
big business in Caracas, and lots of wealthy Venezuelans decided to ride out the crisis rather than flee to
North America or Europe. Even the New York Times reports that, despite his public blusters, Chvez always ensured that trade valves between
the US an Venezuela stayed open. While it must be said that many Venezuelans have gotten rich off alignment (read: corrupt deals) with the
government. These boliburgeses have prospered in the vacuum of a true market economy. In this sense, Venezuela is not Cuba. It
has a solid foundation and modern history of a market economy. That foundation has been battered, but it still exists. 3)
The socialist model failed. According to the BBCs report on Chavezs death yesterday, the country now boasts the fairest income
distribution in Latin America, as measured by the Gini coefficient index. In 2011, Venezuelas Gini coefficient fell to 0.39. By way of
comparison, Brazils was 0.52, in itself a historic low. So the question is not if it failed, but rather WHO it failed and who would have benefited
from increased or steady inequality.

Matt Struth
OPPOSITION DA

Matt Struth
1NC
Democratic opposition will succeed now- plan undercuts them
Christy, 13 -- Foreign Policy Initiative senior policy analyst
[Patrick, "How Obama Is Sinking Venezuela's Opposition," 6-15-13,
www.realclearworld.com/articles/2013/06/15/how_obama_is_sinking_venezuelas_opposition_105239.ht
ml, accessed 7-21-13, mss]

For Venezuela's opposition, the Obama administration's eagerness to revive relations with Maduro is a
punch to the gut. Pro-Maduro legislators in the National Assembly have banned opposition lawmakers from committee hearings and speaking on the
assembly floor. Other outspoken critics of the regime face criminal charges, and government officials repeatedly vilify and slander Capriles. What's worse, if the
United States grants or is perceived to grant legitimacy to the Maduro government, that could give further cover to the
regime as it systematically undermines Venezuela's remaining institutions. The Obama administration's overtures
to Maduro's government come as the region is increasingly skeptical of the Chavez successor's reign. Last
month, Capriles met with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos in Bogota. Chile's Senate unanimously passed a
resolution urging a total audit of all polling stations. And in recent weeks, opposition lawmakers led by Mara Corina Machado,
a representative from the National Assembly of Venezuela, have held meetings in capitals around the region to educate foreign
leaders about Maduro's illegitimate hold on power. Rather than accept Maduro's strongman tactics, the Obama administration should take
a firm stand and make clear to Caracas that any steps to undermine the country's constitution or threaten the opposition will be detrimental to bilateral ties with the
United States. The fact is that Washington holds all the cards. Venezuela's economy is in a free-fall, Maduro's
popularity is plummeting, and various public scandals - especially those related to institutional corruption - could further
erode public confidence in the current government. By resetting relations with the Maduro government
now, the United States risks legitimizing the Chavez protg's ill-gotten hold on power and undercutting the
Venezuelan democratic opposition efforts to sustain and expand its popular support. It's time the Obama
administration rethink this hasty reset with Maduro.

Democratic opposition is key to ending narco-terrorism AND is a pre-req to cooperative
relations- turns the case
Schoen, 12 Forbes contributor [Doug, "The Venezuelan Election Deserves Our Attention," Forbes, 9-
21-13, www.forbes.com/sites/dougschoen/2012/09/21/the-venezuelan-election-deserves-our-attention/2/,
accessed 7-21-13, mss]

There is a crucial election about to take place in Venezuela. Basic issues of freedom and economic liberty are at stake for
the Venezuelan people. And with Venezuela being both our largest oil provider and a chief anti-American aggressor with
alliances in Iran, Syria and Russia amongst others, this election is not only critical for us but much more so than
policymakers in DC have acknowledged or realized. Democratic challenger Henrique Capriles could surely change
the direction of the Venezuela. He is poised to serve as a much-needed positive force in shaping
Venezuelas future as a cooperative member of the international community if he is elected on October 7th. The head
of Venezuelas oil workers union, the United Federation of Oil Workers, said just yesterday that his members are not even entertaining the idea of
a Chavez defeat. It is impossible for Capriles to win this yearWe the working class will not allow it. But while some in the state run oil
industry look to Chavez as a savior of their industry, he has been involved in a number of dangerous and unsavory pursuits over the years that
bring a black cloud over his administration and its business. Chavez has been linked to major narcoterrorists, including Walid Makled who was
designated a major drug kingpin by the Obama administration in 2009 and is a financial stalwart of Chavezs administration. In fact, dozens of
top-level figures in the Chavez government including ministers, judges and generals were on Makleds payroll. Roger Noriega, former US
Ambassador to the Organization of American States, delivered chilling testimony to the Congressional Subcommittee on
Counterterrorism wherein he detailed Venezuelas support of Hezbollah in Latin America. And it is well known that
Chavez is actively working against American interests in Latin America while he bankrupts his country in pursuit of a radical socialist agenda. In
contrast, challenger Capriles is a true democrat. A successful governor of the state of Miranda, he is a capitalist who is focused on
de-politicizing Venezuela, a much needed change. He represents a new generation of the Venezuelan political class that
supports America and wants to work in genuine partnership. As a practicing Roman Catholic and a child of the
Matt Struth
Holocaust, he is acutely aware of and concerned with issues of freedom and equity, both crucial areas for
the future of Venezuela.

Matt Struth
UQ PSUV Collapse
Democratic opposition triumph coming now- PSUV infighting, economy, oil
George, 13 -- Bertelsmann Foundation project manager
[Samuel, "Venezuela After Chavez," 3-5-13, www.bfna.org/sites/default/files/BBrief%20-
%20Venezuela%20After%20Chavez%20(5%20March%202013).pdf, accessed 7-21-13, mss]

These factors combine to suggest that the PSUV will win any presidential election held in the next four months. But their grip on power
may be short lived, again for three reasons. 1. The PSUV is sharply fragmented and is unlikely to maintain its
integrity. For years, Chvez maintained a heavy hand in day-to-day government activities. Now, his carefully manicured apparatus
appears unsure how to act without him. Once described by party leader Alberto Mller Rojas as a scorpions nest, the PSUV
without Chvez could quickly devolve into infighting. Two factions have already emerged. Vice President Maduro,
recommended by Chvez as the next party leader, represents the more radical, ideological wing. National Assembly Speaker and Acting President
(at least according to the constitution) Diosdado Cabello is seen as less doctrinaire than Chvez and carries more pull with the military than
Maduro. Power struggles have already been occurring backstage in Caracas; now they will move to the fore. 2. The
memory of Chvez will dull while the pain of an ailing economy will sharpen. The recent 32-percent currency
devaluation will provide short-term relief, but it does not address the Venezuelan economys underlying problems. Inflation, more than 20
percent in 2012, will increase with the weaker bolivar, and the pass-through effect (the effect of more expensive imports on prices overall) will be
strong. Venezuelas heavy dependence on imports is the result of government mismanagement that has led to a collapse of economic activity
beyond hydrocarbons. Even the all-important oil sector has suffered as the government has strangled PDVSAs budget and
diverted funds from investment and maintenance. A President Maduro would lack the political capital, mandate or desire
required to attack the vested interests behind these inefficiencies. 3. The opposition will strengthen while
the PSUV will be held accountable for worsening economic and social conditions. The opposition
demonstrated patience throughout Chvezs illness, and this strategy could pay off in the long run. Chvezs
demise was inevitable, and the opposition did not waste political capital attacking the legitimacy of a popular, dying president.

Matt Struth
Link Plan Helps Maduro
Engagement shores up Maduro
Baverstock, 13 -- CSM contributor
[Alasdair, "Venezuela's Maduro still waiting on Washington's recognition," 5-17-13,
www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2013/0517/Venezuela-s-Maduro-still-waiting-on-Washington-s-
recognition, accessed 7-21-13, mss]

Others are less convinced by Maduros bluster, seeing a politician weakened by his lack of mandate at
home. Hed definitely like the US to recognize him, says Gerardo Munck, a professor of international relations
at the University of Southern California. Theres nothing he can do to pressure the US, but to be seen as having been duly
elected would put him in a far stronger position both at home and internationally.
Matt Struth
Impact T/ Case Relations
Capriles would boost relations with the US- solves the case
Fox 13 (4-6-13, Venezuela's Capriles Wants Better Ties With U.S. If Elected President" Fox News
Latino) latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/04/06/venezuela-capriles-wants-better-ties-with-us-if-
elected-president/

Cutting off subsidized oil to Cuba, distancing his country from nations that disrespect human rights and
shoring up the South American country's own troubled economy with the billions it now sends abroad to
socialist friends are some of the thing that Venezuelan presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has
promised if elected. Henrique Capriles also told The Associated Press in an interview that he will
seek better ties with Washington always strained under the late President Hugo Chvez but
will demand respect from U.S. leaders, who he says have neglected Latin America. And the challenger
predicted more tough times ahead for oil-rich Venezuela if acting president and ruling party candidate
Nicols Maduro wins the April 14 election. He called Maduro incapable of governing this polarized
nation and said its wealth of economic problems ultimate would force Maduro to resign or be forced out.

Matt Struth
Impact T/ Case Oil
Democratic opposition will reform the oil sector
WNV, 12 [What's Next Venezuela? "In Case You Missed It," 10-5-12,
https://www.whatsnextvenezuela.com/tag/venezuelan-election/, accessed 7-21-13, mss]

This Sundays Venezuelan election promises to have an impact far beyond the borders of Venezuela,
defining not only the legacy of President Hugo Chvez, but also the future of his political movement in Latin America. It
appears increasingly likely that opposition candidate Henrique Capriles can defeat Chvez, thanks to a strong finish to his campaign, while the
normally vibrant Chvez has stumbled across the finish line. The supposed successes of Chvezs policies have come under
increased scrutiny lately, and evidence of massive government mismanagement and failed social programs is disillusioning Venezuelans.
The country has given away money and oil to Cuba and Iran, among others, and these programs would
likely be the first to go should Chvez lose. This is exciting investors, who are betting on a Capriles
victory in hopes that he will rescue the oil industry and the countrys economy, dramatically increasing
the value of its bonds. Regardless of the elections outcome, the victor will face the difficult task of solving many deep-seated problems
in the country, the result of years of waste and neglect.

Matt Struth
Impact T/ Case Terror
Capriles is key to Colombia peace talks with FARC
Cawthorne 12 (Andrew, reporter, If elected, Capriles vows Venezuela will help with Colombia peace
talks Christian Science Monitor) http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2012/1001/If-
elected-Capriles-vows-Venezuela-will-help-with-Colombia-peace-talks

Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles pledged to help Colombia in its peace talks with rebels and distance
himself from Iran should he defeat President Hugo Chavez in an increasingly tight race ahead of Sunday's election. The government of
neighboring Colombia is due to start talks with Marxist FARC guerrillas this month in Oslo to try to end five
decades of conflict. Chavez's government, accused by Bogota of backing the rebels in the past, supports the talks. That has led to
speculation that an opposition victory in Venezuela on Oct. 7 could damage prospects for peace in Colombia. But Capriles denied that was the
case. "A government led by us would accelerate the Colombia peace process . A progressive
government in Venezuela will stop being a refuge for rebels, for armed groups," he told a news
conference in Caracas on Monday. "We have a government that is an accomplice of the Colombian
guerrillas. That will change." Capriles, who has mounted the strongest electoral challenge Chavez has
faced during his 14 years in power, recently met Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos in Bogota. The
opposition candidate also said that if he won he would demand the freedom of some 30 Venezuelans kidnapped in Colombia, and end any direct
contacts with the rebels so as to not confuse the negotiations.
FARC will transfer nuclear material to terroriststheyll strike the US
MacDonald 08 (Brad, columnist, May 2008, Is Chvez Helping Terrorists Go Nuclear?, The Trumpet)
http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/5036.27868.104.0/latin-america/venezuela/is-chavez-helping-
terrorists-go-nuclear

Hugo Chvez has transformed Venezuela into a thriving hideout, breeding ground and launching pad for
terrorism and the black market nuclear trade. Few see it, but this South American state is a large and most
underreported threat to Americas national security. On March 26, Colombian officials seized 66 pounds of
uranium from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) terrorist group. The uranium was buried along a road
in the countryside south of Bogota. Information leading to the discovery came from the laptop computer of Ral Reyes, a top FARC leader killed
by Colombian authorities March 1. Reports said the uranium was impoverished, or depleted, meaning it lacked the concentrated
radioactive material needed for a dirty bomb. Authorities also gave assurances that FARC lacks the technology and resources to actually
construct a nuclear bomb. The Western media heard those facts and breathed a sigh of relief, perceiving the
discovery of FARCs uranium cache to be an event of minor consequence. This view couldnt be more
wrong! The Most Dangerous Black Market That seizure marked the first time radioactive material has been linked
to FARC. It raises some critical questions: Why is FARC in the major league of black-market uranium trade?
Where did it get the uranium? And what was it planning on doing with it? So far, the most plausible explanation is
that FARC planned to sell the uranium to raise money, since joint American-Colombian eradication efforts against FARCs cocaine crops and
operations are eating into its cash flow. Thats reasonable, though in reality the material was nearly worthless. But who would be interested in
purchasing uranium, and how deep do FARCs connections with that entity run? Matthew Bunn, senior research associate with
Harvards Project on Managing the Atom, said he found it interesting that a very professional terrorist
organization like FARC, with a good deal of experience in smuggling, apparently was interested in
getting involved in buying and selling nuclear material for money. That suggests that someone who had
serious nuclear material (unlike this material) and needed to move it from one country to another might have
been able to make use of the farcs capabilities (Foreign Policy, March 28; emphasis mine throughout). Black-market
activities are inherently dangerous, but few are more so than the illegal trade of nuclear materials and
technology. The nature of the underground trade in uranium, particularly when it involves covert enrichment and construction of a
nuclear weapon (the ultimate weapon of mass destruction), requires above all a rare willingness to risk everything for
the cause, as well as expansive expertise and vast resources. The point is, 66 pounds of uranium didnt accidentally fall into
FARCs lap. fARC is clearlyalthough we dont know to what extentinvolved in the international black-market
trade of nuclear material. Thats alarming when you consider the known members of the black-market nuclear trade! Clearly, this
Matt Struth
seizure raises more questions than it answers. While many find assurance in the lack of answers, this is a naive approach. The truth is, these
questions are extremely disconcertingespecially when considered against the growth of the South American terrorist network. Mountains
of evidence have arisen in recent years showing that South America is a hideout and breeding ground
for the worlds most dangerous terrorist organizations , including al Qaeda, Hezbollah and
Hamas. Pockets of South Americaincluding areas in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, all of which have governments hostile to the
U.S.have become launching pads from which the worlds most venomous anti-American entities,
particularly radical Islam, could strike the United States.

Matt Struth
Impact Oil Deals

Capriles would cut monetary support to Cuba, Syria, and Iran
Fox 13 (4-6-13, Venezuela's Capriles Wants Better Ties With U.S. If Elected President" Fox News
Latino) latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/04/06/venezuela-capriles-wants-better-ties-with-us-if-
elected-president/

Capriles vowed to stop financing other nations with cheap oil and to redirect Venezuela's oil riches
toward solving its own poverty. One of his first acts as president, he said, would be to expel Cuban
military advisers from Venezuela's armed forces. "We are giving to the Castro brothers' government ...
nearly $4 billion a year," he said. "Because of that, the Castros love the possibility that this government
remains." The government stresses that in exchange for oil, Cuba has dispatched thousands of doctors and
nurses who provide free medical attention in poverty-stricken areas that historically lacked services.
Capriles has said previously he'd send the doctors home. Capriles said he'd quickly chill ties with Iran and
Syria that Chvez boosted. "We have to take a look at the affinity we have toward Iran, beyond our shared
interest as oil producers. There is none," he said. "With the Syrian government, there is none." Venezuela
has sent several shipments of diesel fuel to Syria's embattled regime. "My political orientation is for
democracy, not these authoritarian governments where human rights are trampled upon," Capriles
declared. The candidate said he wants better relations with Washington, but on an equal footing. Chvez
frequently accused the United States of trying to unseat him, and Maduro has suggested it somehow
injected Chvez with cancer. "I believe the United States has been erratic in its relationship with Latin
America. It's made mistakes," Capriles said.
Capriles would end ties with Cuba, North Korea, and Iran
Thomson and De Lion 13 (John, former diplomat, journalist and analyst, and Norman Pino, former
ambassador and frequent contributor to Venezuelan newspapers, 4-12-13, "Washington Times OP/ED: A
Post-Chavez Solution for Venezuela Capriles Promises to Throw off Crippling Links to Cuba"
Washington Times) cubaconfidential.wordpress.com/2013/04/12/washington-times-oped-a-post-chavez-
solution-for-venezuela-capriles-promises-to-throw-off-crippling-links-to-cuba/

During this brief but heated campaign, Mr. Capriles has emphasized plans and programs, plus Chavista
failures. He denounces, and has committed to end, pervasive and despised Cuban involvement in
Venezuelan life government, intelligence, military and medicine. Vowing to curtail the 100,000 barrel per
day Cuban oil allocation, a proven wealth builder for Fidel Castro and friends, he rails against free and
deeply discounted oil deals with countries ranging from Argentina, Bolivia and Cuba to North Korea. Mr.
Capriles admires former Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silvas free-market commercial and
social-welfare policies. He roundly criticizes the Chavez-Maduro regimes broken promises, notably in
education and public health, and promises to overhaul the complicated, economy-choking currency-
exchange system.

Matt Struth
Impact Russia
Capriles would drive out Russia
Watts and Lopez 12 (Jonathan and Virginia, staff writers, 9-30-12, "Hugo Chvez rival pledges seismic
shift in foreign policy" The Guardian) www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/30/venezuela-chavez-
challenger-election-pledges

The challenger to Hugo Chvez in the Venezuelan presidential election has vowed a dramatic change in
foreign policy if he is elected next Sunday, shifting his country away from China and Russia and
reviewing crucial oil deals. Henrique Capriles, who has gained ground in recent polls, said he would halt
arms purchases from Russia, rethink relations with Iran and revise deals to exploit one of the world's
biggest recoverable oil resources in the Orinoco belt. In an interview during a campaign stop, Capriles
said he would end the Chvez policy of promoting worldwide revolution and focus on Venezuela's needs.
"The foreign policy of this government is driven by politics to extend a revolution worldwide. My
objective with regards to foreign relations is to benefit all Venezuelans," he said. This would mark a
dramatic change. Under Chvez, Venezuela has consistently thumbed its nose at the US and moved closer
to Russia, China, Nicaragua, Cuba and Iran. An example of the close friendship with Moscow came this
week when Vladimir Putin presented Chvez with a Russian terrier puppy. Capriles did not mention
Russian dogs, but said Russian guns would no longer be required. "We have spent more than $14bn
(8.66bn) on arms purchases from Russia," Capriles said. "I am not going to buy more weapons. I think
the policy has been mistaken." The big question is what would happen to the oil industry in Venezuela,
which vies with Saudi Arabia in claiming the biggest proven oil reserves in the world. Until now Russian
and Chinese companies have struck the biggest deals for future exploitation. "We have to revise every
deal. I think they are agreements that are not functioning," Capriles said. Capriles has said he will
continue to work with Beijing because "everyone deals with China" but he appeared ready to distance
Venezuela from Iran. "How have relations with Iran and Belarus benefited Venezuela? We are interested
in countries that have democracies, that respect human rights, that we have an affinity with. What affinity
do we have with Iran?"

Matt Struth
OIL ADV ANSWERS

Matt Struth
Oil 1NC
Status quo solves- Venezuela drilling will further increase
Harvest Natural Resources, 11 [HNR Inc is a petroleum exploration and production company that
explores geological basins with proved petroleum reserves, Venezuela: Petrodelta, no date, but cites up
until 2011, http://www.harvestnr.com/operations/venezuela.html]

The nature of the high quality assets in Venezuela supports rapid conversion of unproved resource into
proved reserves. At year-end 2010, combined proved and probable (2P) reserves net to Harvest from
Petrodelta were 103.6 MMBOE, a 24% increase over year-end 2009. That increase could not have
occurred without a prolific asset in which to drill. Petrodelta?s self-funded 2011 capital budget of $224
million will be allocated to drilling and infrastructure development. Petrodelta?s current operations plan
calls for running a two-rig drilling program to drill 28 new oil wells, two water injector wells, one
gas injector well and to build pipelines and related facilities. So far in 2011, the company has drilled
four development wells, one each in Uracoa, Temblador and El Salto field, plus the first well in Isle?o
field drilled since 1957. The Isle?o ISM-8 well is currently producing 1,800 BOPD of 15.5 API crude.
With 220.6 MMBOE of proved, probable and possible reserves, Petrodelta has a well-defined and
visible long-term growth path in sight.

Chavez death causes foreign investment now
White, Rowley 13(Garry White and Emma Rowley, Garry White is the Telegraphs share tipster and
editor of the Questor column, as well as its mining correspondent and Emma Rowley writes business
news and features for the Telegraph, 3/11, the Telegraph,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/9920725/Death-of-Hugo-Chavez-propels-Venezuelan-
oil-production-into-the-spotlight.html)

The move by the late firebrand Venezuelan leader also erased from his country the skills required for
exploiting the countrys vast oil reserves. He should have let them stay and taxed the companies
heavily. However, oil executives should pause for thought before they book a flight to Caracas following
Mr Chavezs death last week.
Venezuela has the largest known oil reserves in the world, but oil output has slumped by almost a third
because of Mr Chavezs nationalisation of the industry.
At the end of 2011, the country held 17.9pc of the worlds known oil reserves, compared with 16.1pc in
Saudi Arabia and 11pc in Canada, according to BPs statistical review of world energy. However, it only
represented 3.5pc of global production compared with 13.2pc in Saudi Arabia.
It is likely that oil output could rise, should there be an easing of the countrys antagonism to foreign
investors. Some believe this could lead to a fall in the oil price and a consequent boost to the global
economy.
The death of Hugo Chavez may see oil prices fall as they did during the 2002 coup, Gerard Lane, an oil
analyst at Shore Capital, said. With greater foreign investment it is foreseeable that the 30pc fall in
Venezuelan oil production could be reversed.

No impact to shocks- empirically proven
Jaffe 8 [ Amy Myers Jaffe is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice
University, Opportunity, not War, Survival | vol. 50 no. 4 | AugustSeptember 2008 | pp. 6182 ]

Matt Struth
Weve heard the argument before: scarcity of future oil supplies is a danger to the global international system and will create international
conflict, death and destruction. In 1982, noted historian and oil-policy guru Daniel Yergin wrote that the energy question was a question about
the future of Western society, noting that stagnation and unemployment and depression tested democratic systems in the years between World
War I and World War II and asserting that if there wasnt sufficient oil to drive economic growth, the possibilities are unpleasant to
contemplate.1 His words proved typical prose foreboding the top of a commodity cycle. A year later, oil prices began a four-year collapse to $12
a barrel. That oil is a cyclical industry is not in question. Since 1861, oil markets have experienced more than eight
boom-and-bust cycles. In 1939, the US Department of the Interior announced that only 13 years of oil reserves remained in the United
States. In more recent history, Middle East wars or revolutions produced oil price booms in 1956, 1973, 1979, 1990
and 2003. Each time, analysts rushed to warn of doomsday scenarios but markets responded and oil use
was curtailed both by market forces and government intervention rather than by war and massive global
instability. The question Nader Elhefnawy raises in The Impending Oil Shock is whether this time will be different.

Econ resilient
E.I.U. 11
(Economist Intelligence Unit Global Forecasting Service, 11/16/11
(http://gfs.eiu.com/Article.aspx?articleType=gef&articleId=668596451&secID=7)

The US economy, by any standard, remains weak, and consumer and business sentiment are close to 2009 lows. That said, the economy
has been surprisingly resilient in the face of so many shocks. US real GDP expanded by a relatively robust
2.5% in the third quarter of 2011, twice the rate of the previous quarter. Consumer spending rose by 2.4%, which is impressive
given that real incomes dropped during the quarter (the savings rate fell, which helps to explain the anomaly.) Historically, US
consumers have been willing to spend even in difficult times. Before the 2008-09 slump, personal spending rose in every
quarter between 1992 and 2007. That resilience is again in evidence: retail sales in September were at a seven-month high,
and sales at chain stores have been strong. Business investment has been even more buoyant: it expanded in the third quarter by an
impressive 16.3% at an annual rate, and spending by companies in September on conventional capital goods (that is, excluding
defence and aircraft) grew by the most since March. This has been made possible, in part, by strong corporate
profits. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, earnings for US companies in the S&P 500 rose by 24% year on year in the third quarter.
All of this has occurred despite a debilitating fiscal debate in Washington, a sovereign debt downgrade by
a major ratings agency and exceptional volatility in capital markets. This reinforces our view that the US economy,
although weak, is not in danger of falling into a recession (absent a shock from the euro zone). US growth will, however,
continue to be held back by a weak labour marketthe unemployment rate has been at or above 9% for 28 of the last 30 monthsand by a
moribund housing market.

Decline doesnt cause war
Barnett 9
(Thomas P.M Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25/9 The New
Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-
remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze with all sorts of scary
predictions of, and commentary regarding, ensuing conflict and wars -- a rerun of the Great Depression leading to
world war, as it were. Now, as global economic news brightens and recovery -- surprisingly led by China and emerging markets -
- is the talk of the day, it's interesting to look back over the past year and realize how globalization's first truly
worldwide recession has had virtually no impact whatsoever on the international security landscape. None of the
more than three-dozen ongoing conflicts listed by GlobalSecurity.org can be clearly attributed to the global
recession. Indeed, the last new entry (civil conflict between Hamas and Fatah in the Palestine) predates the
economic crisis by a year, and three quarters of the chronic struggles began in the last century. Ditto for the 15 low-intensity conflicts
listed by Wikipedia (where the latest entry is the Mexican "drug war" begun in 2006). Certainly, the Russia-Georgia conflict last August
was specifically timed, but by most accounts the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics was the most
important external trigger (followed by the U.S. presidential campaign) for that sudden spike in an almost two-decade long
struggle between Georgia and its two breakaway regions. Looking over the various databases, then, we see a most familiar
picture: the usual mix of civil conflicts, insurgencies, and liberation-themed terrorist movements. Besides the
recent Russia-Georgia dust-up, the only two potential state-on-state wars (North v. South Korea, Israel v. Iran) are both tied to
Matt Struth
one side acquiring a nuclear weapon capacity -- a process wholly unrelated to global economic trends. And with the
United States effectively tied down by its two ongoing major interventions (Iraq and Afghanistan-bleeding-into-Pakistan), our
involvement elsewhere around the planet has been quite modest, both leading up to and following the onset of the
economic crisis: e.g., the usual counter-drug efforts in Latin America, the usual military exercises with allies across Asia, mixing it up with
pirates off Somalia's coast). Everywhere else we find serious instability we pretty much let it burn, occasionally
pressing the Chinese -- unsuccessfully -- to do something. Our new Africa Command, for example, hasn't led us to anything beyond
advising and training local forces.

Matt Struth
EXT: Investment Now

Venezuela will open to foreign investors
Gupta 12 (Girish Gupta, foreign correspondent and journalist, August 29, 2012, global post,
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/venezuela/120828/chevron-venezuelan-oil-
investment )

CARACAS, Venezuela Bosses at Chevron Corp may share in the three-day mourning declared by Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez over the countrys recent oil blast at Amuay, which killed at least 48 people. The blast early Saturday morning was one
of the worlds worst refinery explosions in 25 years, and the flames were only extinguished Tuesday. Many critics of Venezuelas self-styled
socialist government have blamed Chavez for a failure to maintain the complex. This accident reflects a lack of
investment, it should be a call of attention to authorities, said Boris Segura, Latin America analyst at investment bank Nomura, based in
New York. In general, it speaks poorly about the state of infrastructure in Venezuela.

Chavezs death leads to foreign investors
Vanderklippe 13(NATHAN VANDERKLIPPE, author for the Globe and Mail, 3/5, The Globe and
Mail, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/latin-american-
business/chavezs-death-opens-door-to-venezuelas-oil-riches/article9324112/)

For years, the torrents of oil flowing from Venezuelas giant energy reserves have dwindled. From a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day, the
countrys output has fallen to less than 2.5 million. Now, the death of Hugo Chavez offers the promise of
domestic oil market changes that could roil the energy world and place substantial opportunities at the feet of
Canadian oil companies whose expertise in heavy crude is directly applicable to Venezuelas Orinoco oil fields. Venezuela, after all,
boasts the worlds largest crude reserves. The countrys ability to exploit them has been constrained by a lack of
investment in dwindling older fields and the regimes hostile treatment of foreign capital. Observers caution that
in the short term, the likelihood of substantial change is low, and even if policy shifts do come, they are unlikely to result in an energy
transformation for many years. For now, the most likely outcome is that everything will remain the same in terms of policies, said Jorge Neher,
Venezuelan-born partner with law firm Norton Rose who specializes in South American natural resource extraction. Yet the death of Mr.
Chavez, the populist leader who tossed out international oil companies and proved a frequent irritant to the United States,
may set in motion a series of long-term reforms that could slowly redraw the worlds energy map.

Matt Struth
EXT: No Shocks Impact
Oil shocks dont correlate with econ decline
Rasmussen and Roitman 11
Rasmussen is an economist in the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department and Agustin Roitman is an economist at the International Monetary
Fund.He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Maryland at College Park in 2010. Prior to joining the IMF, he held research
positions at the Inter-American Development Bank in the Southern Cone and Research Departments. His main areas of expertise include
international finance and open economy macroeconomics. His research centers on fiscal and monetary policy in emerging and developing
countries., Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective: Are they Really that Bad?, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11194.pdf
Conventional wisdom has it that oil shocks are bad for oil-importing countries. This is grounded in the experience of
slumps in many advanced economies during the 1970s. It is also consistent with the large body of research on the impact of higher oil
prices on the U.S. economy, although the magnitude and channels of the effect are still being debated. In this paper, we offer a global perspective on the
macroeconomic impact of oil prices. In doing so, we are filling a void of research on the effects of oil prices on developing economies. Our findings
indicate that oil prices tend to be surprisingly closely associated with good times for the global
economy . Indeed, we find that the United States has been somewhat of an outlier in the way that it has been negatively affected by oil price increases.
Across the world, oil price shock episodes have generally not been associated with a contemporaneous
decline in output but, rather, with increases in both imports and exports. There is evidence of lagged negative effects on
output, particularly for OECD economies, but the magnitude has typically been small. Controlling for global economic conditions, and thus abstracting from our
finding that oil price increases generally appear to be demand-driven, makes the impact of higher oil prices stand out more clearly. For a given level of
world GDP, we do find that oil prices have a negative effect on oil-importing countries and also that cross-country
differences in the magnitude of the impact depend to a large extent on the relative magnitude of oil imports. The effect is still not
Particularly large , however, with our estimates suggesting that a 25 percent increase in oil prices will cause a
loss of real GDP in oil-importing countries of less than half of one percent , spread over 23 years. One likely
explanation for this relatively modest impact is that part of the greater revenue accruing to oil exporters will be recycled in the form of imports or other international
flows, thus contributing to keep up demand in oil-importing economies. We provide a model illustrating this effect and find supporting empirical evidence. The
finding that the negative impact of higher oil prices has generally been quite small does not mean that the effect can be ignored. Some countries have clearly been
negatively affected by high oil prices. Moreover, our results do not rule out more adverse effects from a future shock that is driven largely by lower oil supply than the
more demand-driven increases in oil prices that have been the norm in the last two decades. In terms of policy lessons, our findings suggest that efforts 16to reduce
dependence on oil could help reduce the exposure to oil price shocks and hence costs associated with macroeconomic volatility.13 At the same time, given a certain
level of oil imports, developing economic linkages to oil exporters could also work as a natural shock absorber.
Oil shocks lead to increased global GDP
Rasmussen and Roitman 11(Tobias Rasmussen, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia
Department, IMF, Augustin Roitman, Economist, IMF, Oil shocks around the world: Are they really that
bad?,8/25/2013, VOX, http://www.voxeu.org/article/oil-shocks-around-world-are-they-really-bad)

Conventional wisdom has it that oil shocks are bad for oil-importing countries. This is grounded in the experience of slumps in many advanced
economies during the 1970s. It is also consistent with the large body of research on the impact of higher oil prices on the US economy, although
the magnitude and channels of the effect are still being debated. Our recent research indicates that oil prices tend to be
surprisingly closely associated with good times for the global economy. Indeed, we find that the US has been
somewhat of an outlier in the way that it has been negatively affected by oil price increases. Across the world, oil price shock
episodes have generally not been associated with a contemporaneous decline in output but, rather, with increases in
both imports and exports. There is evidence of lagged negative effects on output, particularly for OECD economies, but the
magnitude has typically been small. Controlling for global economic conditions, and thus abstracting from our finding that oil price
increases generally appear to be demand-driven, makes the impact of higher oil prices stand out more clearly. For a given level of world GDP, we
do find that oil prices have a negative effect on oil-importing countries and also that cross-country differences in the magnitude of the impact
depend to a large extent on the relative magnitude of oil imports. The effect is still not particularly large, however, with our estimates suggesting
that a 25% increase in oil prices will typically cause a loss of real GDP in oil-importing countries of less
than half of 1%, spread over 2 to 3 years. These findings suggest that the higher import demand in oil-exporting countries
resulting from oil price increases has an important contemporaneous offsetting effect on economic activity in the rest of the world, and that the
adverse consequences are mostly relatively mild and occur with a lag.
Matt Struth
Adaptation empirically resolves supply problems
Kahn 11 (2/13/11, Jeremy, Boston Globe, Crude reality, http://articles.boston.com/2011-02-13/news/29336191_1_crude-oil-shocks-
major-oil-producers SW)

Among those asking this tough question are two young professors, Eugene Gholz, at the University of Texas, and Daryl Press, at Dartmouth
College. To find out what actually happens when the worlds petroleum supply is interrupted, the duo analyzed
every major oil disruption since 1973. The results, published in a recent issue of the journal Strategic Studies, showed that in almost
all cases, the ensuing rise in prices, while sometimes steep, was short-lived and had little lasting economic
impact. When there have been prolonged price rises, they found the cause to be panic on the part of oil
purchasers rather than a supply shortage. When oil runs short, in other words, the market is usually adept at
filling the gap. One striking example was the height of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. If anything was likely to produce an oil
shock, it was this: two major Persian Gulf producers directly targeting each others oil facilities. And indeed,
prices surged 25 percent in the first months of the conflict. But within 18 months of the wars start they
had fallen back to their prewar levels, and they stayed there even though the fighting continued to rage for six more years.
Surprisingly, during the 1984 Tanker War phase of that conflict when Iraq tried to sink oil tankers
carrying Iranian crude and Iran retaliated by targeting ships carrying oil from Iraq and its Persian Gulf allies the price of oil
continued to drop steadily. Gholz and Press found just one case after 1973 in which the market mechanisms failed: the 1979-1980
Iranian oil strike which followed the overthrow of the Shah, during which Saudi Arabia, perhaps hoping to appease Islamists within the country,
also led OPEC to cut production, exacerbating the supply shortage. In their paper, Gholz and Press ultimately conclude that the
markets adaptive mechanisms function independently of the US military presence in the Persian Gulf, and that
they largely protect the American economy from being damaged by oil shocks. To the extent that the United States
faces a national security challenge related to Persian Gulf oil, it is not how to protect the oil we need but how to assure consumers that there is
nothing to fear, the two write. That is a thorny policy problem, but it does not require large military deployments and costly military
operations. Theres no denying the importance of Middle Eastern oil to the US economy. Although only 15 percent of imported
US oil comes directly from the Persian Gulf, the region is responsible for nearly a third of the worlds
production and the majority of its known reserves. But the oil market is also elastic: Many key producing countries
have spare capacity, so if oil is cut off from one country, others tend to increase their output rapidly
to compensate. Today, regions outside the Middle East, such as the west coast of Africa, make up an
increasingly important share of worldwide production. Private companies also hold large stockpiles of oil
to smooth over shortages amounting to a few billion barrels in the United States alone as does the US government,
with 700 million barrels in its strategic petroleum reserve. And the market can largely work around
shipping disruptions by using alternative routes; though they are more expensive, transportation costs account for only tiny
fraction of the price of oil.

Prefer the consensus of new economic research
Kahn 11 (Jeremy Kahn, journalist, Crude Reality, February 13, 2011,
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/?page=full, )
Economists have a term for this disruption: an oil shock. The idea that such oil shocks will inevitably wreak havoc on the US
economy has become deeply rooted in the American psyche, and in turn the United States has made ensuring the smooth
flow of crude from the Middle East a central tenet of its foreign policy. Oil security is one of the primary reasons America has a long-term military presence in the
region. Even aside from the Iraq and Afghan wars, we have equipment and forces positioned in Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar; the US Navys Fifth Fleet is
permanently stationed in Bahrain. But a growing body of economic research suggests that this conventional view of oil shocks is
wrong. The US economy is far less susceptible to interruptions in the oil supply than previously
assumed, according to these studies. Scholars examining the recent history of oil disruptions have found the worldwide oil
market to be remarkably adaptable and surprisingly quick at compensating for shortfalls. Economists

Matt Struth
EXT: Econ Resilient
US econ resilient
Johnson 13
(Robert , CFA, director of economic analysis with Morningstar, Morningstar.com, U.S. Economy Not So Fragile After All 1/19
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=581616)

No, the U.S. Economy Has Not Been Fragile After All Although most economists got at least some things right about the
U.S. economy over the past two years, the one nearly universal error was the expectation that the economy was fragile.
The U.S. economy has proven to be anything but fragile. I believe this to be the single biggest error that economists have
made over the last two years. During that time, the U.S. has survived the fallout from a major debt crisis in Europe, a
divisive election, temporarily going over the fiscal cliff, gasoline prices that have been on a yo-yo, a tsunami
in Japan, and Hurricane Sandy, which shut down New York and even the stock exchanges for a couple of
days. These are not signs of a fragile economy.

Econ resilient fundamentals growing
Stewart 13
(Hale Stewart spent 5 years as a bond broker in the late 1990s before returning to law school in the early 2000s. He is currently a tax lawyer in
Houston, Texas. He has an LLM from the Thomas Jefferson School of Law in domestic and international taxation where he graduated Magna
Cum Laude, seeking alpha, Is The U.S. Economy Moving Into A Higher Growth Phase? Part 1 - The Positive Feb 5
th

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1158011-is-the-u-s-economy-moving-into-a-higher-growth-phase-part-1-the-positive?source=google_news)

All three of the above sectors -- housing, autos and manufacturing -- are bedrock components of the economy. If all
three are doing fairly well, the worst that can happen is slow growth. There is simply too much
of a multiplier effect of the combined total for a recession to occur with the above three
expanding. However, this is before we get to the latest and upcoming fiscal follies from the people in Washington. We'll touch on that in Part 2.

Matt Struth
EXT: No War
Economic decline doesnt cause war
Jervis,11
(Robert, Professor PolSci Columbia, December, Force in Our Times Survival, Vol 25 No 4, p 403-425)
Even if war is still seen as evil, the security community could be dissolved if severe conflicts of interest were to arise. Could the more peaceful
world generate new interests that would bring the members of the community into sharp disputes? 45 A zero-sum sense of status would be one
example, perhaps linked to a steep rise in nationalism. More likely would be a worsening of the current economic difficulties, which
could itself produce greater nationalism, undermine democracy and bring back old-fashioned beggar-my-neighbor economic
policies. While these dangers are real, it is hard to believe that the conflicts could be great enough to lead the
members of the community to contemplate fighting each other. It is not so much that economic interdependence has
proceeded to the point where it could not be reversed states that were more internally interdependent than anything seen internationally have
fought bloody civil wars. Rather it is that even if the more extreme versions of free trade and economic liberalism
become discredited, it is hard to see how without building on a preexisting high level of political conflict
leaders and mass opinion would come to believe that their countries could prosper by impoverishing or
even attacking others. Is it possible that problems will not only become severe, but that people will entertain the thought that they have to
be solved by war? While a pessimist could note that this argument does not appear as outlandish as it did before the financial crisis, an optimist
could reply (correctly, in my view) that the very fact that we have seen such a sharp economic down-turn without
anyone suggesting that force of arms is the solution shows that even if bad times bring about greater
economic conflict, it will not make war thinkable.
Multipolarity makes their arguments untrueeconomic decline doesnt cause war
Thirlwell 10
MPhil in economics from Oxford U, postgraduate qualifications in applied finance from Macquarie U, program director in International Economy for the Lowy Institute for International
Policy (Mark, September 2010, The Return of Geo-economics: Globalisation and National Security, Lowy Institute for International Policy, google scholar,)
Summing up the evidence, then, I would judge that while empirical support for the Pax Mercatoria is not conclusive, nevertheless its still
strongly supportive of the general idea that international integration is good for peace, all else equal. Since there is also even stronger evidence
that peace is good for trade, this raises the possibility of a nice virtuous circle: globalisation (trade) promotes peace,
which in turn promotes more globalisation. In this kind of world, we should not worry too much about the big
power shifts described in the previous section, since they are taking place against a backdrop of greater economic integration which should
help smooth the whole process. Instead of ending this section on that optimistic note, however, its worth thinking about some reasons why the
Pax Mercatoria might nevertheless turn out to be a poor, or at least overly optimistic, guide to our future. The first is
captured by that all important get-out-of-gaol-free card, all else equal. Its quite possible that the peace-promoting effects of international
commerce will end up being swamped by other factors, just as they were in 1914. Second, perhaps the theory itself is wrong. Certainly, a realist
like John Mearsheimer would seem to have little time for the optimistic consequences of the rise of new powers implied by the theory. Heres
Mearsheimer on how the US should view Chinas economic progress, for example: . . . the United States has a profound interest in seeing
Chinese economic growth slow considerably in the years ahead . . . A wealthy China would not be a status quo power but an aggressive state
determined to achieve regional hegemony. 62 Such pessimistic (or are they tragic?) views of the world would also seem to run the risk of being
self-fulfilling prophecies if they end up guiding actual policy. Finally, there is the risk that the shift to a multipolar world might
indirectly undermine some of the supports needed to deliver globalisation. Here I am thinking about some simple variant on
the idea of hegemonic stability theory (HST) the proposition that the global economy needs a leader (or hegemon) that is
both able and willing to provide the sorts of international public goods that are required for its smooth functioning: open
markets (liberal or free trade), a smoothly functioning monetary regime, liberal capital flows, and a lender of last resort
function. 63 Charles Kindleberger argued that the 1929 depression was so wide, so deep, and so long because the
international economic system was rendered unstable by British inability and US unwillingness to assume
responsibility for stabilizing it, drawing on the failures of the Great Depression to make the original case for HST: . . . the
international economic and monetary system needs leadership, a country that is prepared . . . to set standards
of conduct for other countries and to seek to get others to follow them, to take on an undue share of the burdens of the system, and
in particular to take on its support in adversity... 64 Kindlebergers assessment appears to capture a rough empirical regularity: As Findlay and
ORourke remind us, periods of sustained expansion in world trade have tended to coincided with the infrastructure of law and
order necessary to keep trade routes open being provided by a dominant hegemon or imperial power. 65 Thus periods of
globalisation have typically been associated with periods of hegemonic or imperial power, such as the Pax Mongolica,
the Pax Britannica and, most recently, the Pax Americana (Figure 9). The risk, then, is that by reducing the economic clout of the
United States, it is possible that the shift to a multipolar world economy might undermine either the willingness or
Matt Struth
the ability (or both) of Washington to continue to supply the international public goods needed to sustain a
(relatively) smoothly functioning world economy. 66 That in turn could undermine the potential virtuous circle
identified above.

Matt Struth
A2 Competitiveness
No competitiveness
Krugman [Paul, Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1994
Competitiveness: A Dangerous Obsession, Foreign Affairs, Volume 73, Issue 2, March/April -
http://www.jstor.org/stable/20045917 // accessed 7/22/13/NL]

Guess what? Delors didn't confront the problems of either the welfare state or the EMS. He explained that the
root cause of European unemployment was a lack of competitiveness with the United States and Japan
and that the solution was a program of investment in infrastructure and high technology.It was a disappointing
evasion, but not a surprising one. After all, the rhetoric of competitiveness--the view that, in the words of President
Clinton, each nation is "like a big corporation competing in the global marketplace"--has become
pervasive among opinion leaders throughout the world. People who believe themselves to be sophisticated about the subject
take it for granted that the economic problem facing any modern nation is essentially one of competing on world markets--that the United States
and Japan are competitors in the same sense that Coca-Cola competes with Pepsi--and are unaware that anyone might seriously question that
proposition. Every few months a new best-sell-er warns the American public of the dire consequences of losing the "race" for the 21st century.[1]
A whole industry of councils on competitiveness, "geo-economists" and managed trade theorists has
sprung up in Washington. Many of these people, having diagnosed America's economic problems in
much the same terms as Delors did Europe's, are now in the highest reaches of the Clinton administration
formulating economic and trade policy for the United States. So Delors was using a language that was not only convenient
but comfortable for him and a wide audience on both sides of the Atlantic.Unfortunately, his diagnosis was deeply misleading as a guide to what
ails Europe, and similar diagnoses in the United States are equally misleading. The idea that a country's economic fortunes are
largely determined by its success on world markets is a hypothesis, not a necessary truth; and as a
practical, empirical matter, that hypothesis is flatly wrong. That is, it is simply not the case that the
world's leading nations are to any important degree in economic competition with each other, or that any
of their major economic problems can be attributed to failures to compete on world markets. The growing
obsession in most advanced nations with international competitiveness should be seen, not as a well-
founded concern, but as a view held in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence. And yet it is clearly a
view that people very much want to hold--a desire to believe that is reflected in a remarkable tendency of
those who preach the doctrine of competitiveness to support their case with careless, flawed arithmetic.This
article makes three points. First, it argues that concerns about competitiveness are, as an empirical matter, almost
completely unfounded. Second, it tries to explain why defining the economic problem as one of
international competition is nonetheless so attractive to so many people. Finally, it argues that the
obsession with competitiveness is not only wrong but dangerous, skewing domestic policies and
threatening the international economic system. This last issue is, of course, the most consequential from
the standpoint of public policy. Thinking in terms of competitiveness leads, directly and indirectly, to bad
economic policies on a wide range of issues, domestic and foreign, whether it be in health care or trade.

Matt Struth
RELATIONS ANSWERS

Matt Struth
Relations 1NC

Alt causeSnowden
Riechmann 7-15 (Deb, AP reporter, 7-15-13, Snowden affair chills U.S.-Latin American ties USA
Today) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/07/15/snowden-affair-chills-us-latin-american-
ties/2517081/

America's "backyard," as Secretary of State John Kerry once referred to Latin America, is sprouting angry weeds as
the scandal involving intelligence leaker Edward Snowden lays bare already thorny U.S. relations with Latin
America. Taking the opportunity to snub their noses at the U.S., Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua have
already said they'd be willing to grant asylum for Snowden, who is wanted on espionage charges in the United States for
revealing the scope of National Security Agency surveillance programs that spy on Americans and foreigners. Ecuador has said it would consider
any request from him. Relations between the U.S. and these countries were already testy, and the Snowden
affair is further complicating the Obama administration's effort to improve ties with friendlier nations in the
region like Mexico and Brazil. Snowden hasn't been the only recent setback. Leaders in the region harshly criticized the U.S. earlier
this week when a newspaper in Brazil, which was privy to some documents released by Snowden, reported that a U.S. spy program was widely
targeting data in emails and telephone calls across Latin America. That revelation came just days after an uproar in Latin America over the
rerouting of Bolivian President Evo Morales' plane over Europe amid suspicions, later proven untrue, that Snowden was aboard. And all this
comes right after President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Kerry have all made recent treks to the region to bolster U.S.
engagement in Latin America. "What the Snowden affair has done to the reinvigorated effort to re-engage with
Latin America is to dump a pail of cold water on it," said Carl Meacham, a former senior Latin
America adviser on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "It won't stop trade deals, cooperation on energy, but it's going to be harder
for the president to portray the image that 'We are here to work with you.' It's a step back." The U.S. has sought to downplay the fallout from the
disclosure of information about its intelligence activities. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki acknowledged that the United States does
gather foreign intelligence just like other nations. "I can tell you that we have spoken with Brazilian officials regarding these allegations," she
said this week. "We plan to continue our dialogue with the Brazilians through normal diplomatic channels, but those are conversations that, of
course, we would keep private." Psaki has also said that any country granting asylum to Snowden would create "grave difficulties in our bilateral
relationship." While other nations may spy on their friends, the allegations have fueled anti-American sentiment already simmering in the region.
Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Ecuador are led by populist leaders who have balked at any dominance by the U.S. in the Americas and
pursued policies that often run counter to Washington's wishes. Venezuela refers to the United States simply as "The Empire." "What they're
saying is 'See, the U.S. hasn't changed. It doesn't matter who is in the White House, the U.S. is the same. The U.S. is the big imperial power ...
they are not treating us as equals. Look, they are even spying on us,'" said Meacham, who directs the Americas program at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies. The flap over the rerouting of the Bolivian president's plane prompted a special session Tuesday of the
Organization of American States' permanent council. Bolivian Interior Minister Carlos Romero delivered blistering remarks about the incident,
calling it an "act of aggression" conducted "at the behest of the United States. Countries like Ecuador, which has cozied up to U.S. rivals Iran and
China, joined the verbal slugfest against the U.S. Ecuador has sheltered WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange in its embassy in London for more
than a year and has given mixed signals about offering Snowden asylum. Latin America wants international standing and chafes at any attempt by
the United States to downplay its stature, hence the ruffled feathers when Kerry referred to the region as "America's backyard." Latin America is
now home to 600 million people. The U.S. looks to the region for oil and is heavily vested in bilateral trade agreements. Together, Mexico and
Brazil are responsible for 65 percent of Latin America's production, and some experts suggest that they are destined to jump into fourth and fifth
place on the list of the world's biggest economies, behind the U.S., India and China. Last year alone, trade between the U.S. and Mexico totaled
nearly $500 billion, making it the United States' second-largest trading partner and Mexico could eventually overtake Canada for the No. 1 spot.
The Snowden affair is not likely to unravel these strong U.S. connections to the region, but it is a roadblock to efforts
to improve cooperation, said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based policy forum on
Western Hemisphere affairs. "I don't think it's going to paralyze relations," Shifter said. "But I think it's a setback overall even
with countries that have been friendly."

Arizona law block US-Latin American ties
Steinberg 10
(James B., Deputy Secretary of State, former Dean of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin,
Deputy National Security Adviser on the staff of the National Security Council, President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings
Institution, affidavit filed in US v. Arizona, UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF ARIZONA, Case 2:10-cv-01413-
NVW Document 6-1 Filed 07/06/10, http://www.scribd.com/doc/33977183/U-S-v-Arizona-Exh-1-to-Motion-for-Preliminary-Injunction-
Affidavit-of-James-Steinberg)
Matt Struth
55.If S.B. 1070, Arizona's attempt to set its own immigration policy in pursuit of "attrition through enforcement," were
to go into effect, it would directly call into question the ability of the United States to speak with one
voice at the international level on issues related to immigration and migration policy. Only the national government is in a position to
accurately assess the impact of a policy such as S.B. 1070 on our overall foreign relations agenda and to balance the competing foreign relations
considerations involved in the adoption and enforcement of such a law. When the United States incurs criticism of immigration
law and policies adopted at the federal level, the United States is normally in a position to review the criticism and determine whether
to defend the practices against attack or else to take appropriate action to modify its practices. The United States is also able to develop
and implement immigration policy in anticipation of these and other foreign relations concerns. In this case, however, the policy being pursued
has not been developed, nor would it be implemented, with sensitivity to the full range of foreign policy information and considerations available
to the national government, and the United States is unable to calibrate its immigration and foreign policies to respond effectively to these claims.
56.If the several states were each allowed to pursue independent immigration enforcement policies such
as the Arizona law, these serious concerns would be multiplied significantly, as the United States could be
subjected to a cacophony of competing immigration enforcement priorities and agendas, with little regard for the
sensitive diplomatic and foreign relations considerations that immigration policy addresses, and with an extreme adverse impact on
the United States' ability to speak with one voice. 57.S.B. 1070 and in particular the mandatory verification regime
requirement thus poses a risk of provoking retaliatory treatment against U.S. nationals by other states, and threatens ongoing adverse
consequences for important and sensitive bilateral relationships with U.S. allies such as Mexico, for our
regional relations in the western hemisphere, and for our global relations in regional and multilateral institutions. It
is likely to hinder our ability to secure the cooperation of other states in efforts to promote
U.S. interests internationally across a range of trade, security, tourism, and other interests unrelated to immigration. Finally, it
is likely to undermine the United States' ability to engage effectively with the international community to
promote the advancement and protection of human rights. Moreover, repairing such harm to international relations and U.S.
stature in bilateral, regional and multilateral relationships after the fact can be extremely difficult.

Arizona kills relations- assumes Latin America
Steinberg 10

40.Bolivia's President Morales, Ecuador's President Correa, El Salvador's President Funes and Guatemala's President Colom
have also voiced public criticism of the Arizona law. Other governments, including that of Brazil,
Colombia, Honduras, and Nicaragua have issued statements criticizing the law. Additionally, the National
Assemblies in Ecuador and Nicaragua, and the Central American Parliament based in Guatemala, have adopted critical resolutions or other
statements. S.B. 1070 has also been raised with high level U.S. officials by various foreign states on a
number of occasions in nonpublic settings.

( ) Alt cause US drug policy.

Shifter 12
(Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the
Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue.
Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America, April, IAD Policy Report,
http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

Another chronic irritant is US drug policy, which most Latin Americans now believe makes their drug and
crime problems worse. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while visiting Mexico, acknowledged that US anti-drug programs have not
worked. Yet, despite growing calls and pressure from the region, the United States has shown little interest in
exploring alternative approaches.
Matt Struth

( ) Alt cause Immigration.

Shifter 12

In the main, hemispheric relations are amicable. Open conflict is rare and, happily, the sharp antagonisms that marred relations in the past have
subsided. But the US-Latin America relationship would profit from more vitality and direction. Shared interests are not
pursued as vigorously as they should be, and opportunities for more fruitful engagement are being missed. Well-developed ideas for reversing
these disappointing trends are scarce. Some enduring problems stand squarely in the way of partnership
and effective cooperation. The inability of Washington to reform its broken immigration system is a
constant source of friction between the United States and nearly every other country in the Americas.
Yet US officials rarely refer to immigration as a foreign policy issue. Domestic policy debates on this issue disregard the United States
hemispheric agenda as well as the interests of other nations.

No nuclear terrorism tech barriers.
Chapman 12
(Stephen, editorial writer for Chicago Tribune, CHAPMAN: Nuclear terrorism unlikely, May 22, http://www.oaoa.com/articles/chapman-
87719-nuclear-terrorism.html)
A layperson may figure its only a matter of time before the unimaginable comes to pass. Harvards Graham Allison, in his book Nuclear
Terrorism, concludes, On the current course, nuclear terrorism is inevitable. But remember: After Sept. 11, 2001, we all thought
more attacks were a certainty. Yet al-Qaida and its ideological kin have proved unable to mount a second
strike. Given their inability to do something simple say, shoot up a shopping mall or set off a
truck bomb its reasonable to ask whether they have a chance at something much more
ambitious. Far from being plausible, argued Ohio State University professor John Mueller in a presentation at the University of Chicago,
the likelihood that a terrorist group will come up with an atomic bomb seems to be vanishingly
small. The events required to make that happen comprise a multitude of Herculean tasks. First, a terrorist
group has to get a bomb or fissile material, perhaps from Russias inventory of decommissioned warheads. If that were
easy, one would have already gone missing. Besides, those devices are probably no longer a danger,
since weapons that are not maintained quickly become what one expert calls radioactive scrap metal. If terrorists were able to
steal a Pakistani bomb, they would still have to defeat the arming codes and other safeguards designed
to prevent unauthorized use. As for Iran, no nuclear state has ever given a bomb to an ally for reasons
even the Iranians can grasp. Stealing some 100 pounds of bomb fuel would require help from rogue individuals inside some
government who are prepared to jeopardize their own lives. Then comes the task of building a bomb. Its not
something you can gin up with spare parts and power tools in your garage. It requires millions of
dollars, a safe haven and advanced equipment plus people with specialized skills, lots of time and
a willingness to die for the cause. Assuming the jihadists vault over those Himalayas, they would have to deliver the
weapon onto American soil. Sure, drug smugglers bring in contraband all the time but seeking their help would confront the
plotters with possible exposure or extortion. This, like every other step in the entire process, means expanding the
circle of people who know whats going on, multiplying the chance someone will blab, back out or
screw up. That has heartening implications. If al-Qaida embarks on the project, it has only a minuscule chance of seeing it bear fruit. Given
the formidable odds, it probably wont bother. None of this means we should stop trying to minimize the risk by securing
nuclear stockpiles, monitoring terrorist communications and improving port screening. But it offers good reason to think that in this war, it
appears, the worst eventuality is one that will never happen.

No nuclear terror counter to the goals of terror groups.
Kapur 8
Matt Struth
(S. Paul; Associate professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, The Long Shadow: Nuclear
Weapons and Security in 21
st
Century Asia. pg. 32)
Before a terrorist group can attempt to use nuclear weapons, it must meet two basic requirements. First, the group must decide that it wishes to
engage in nuclear terrorism. Analysts and policy makers often assume that terrorist groups necessarily want to do so (Carter 2004; U.S.
Government 2002). However, it is not clear that terrorist organizations would necessarily covet nuclear
devices. Although analysts often characterize terrorism as an irrational activity (Laqeuer I999: 4-5),
extensive empirical evidence indicates that terrorist groups in fact behave rationally, adopting strategies
designed to achieve particular ends (Crenshaw I995: 4; Pape 2003: 344). Thus whether terrorists would use nuclear weapons is contingent on
whether doing so is likely to further their goals. Under what circumstances could nuclear weapons fail to promote terrorists' goals? For
certain types of terrorist objectives, nuclear weapons could be too destructive. Large-scale
devastation could negatively influence audiences important to the terrorist groups. Terrorists often
rely on populations sympathetic to their cause for political, financial, and military support. The
horrific destruction of a nuclear explosion could alienate segments of this audience. People who
otherwise would sympathize with the terrorists may conclude that in using a nuclear device
terrorists had gone too far and were no longer deserving of support. The catastrophic effects of nuclear weapons
could also damage or destroy the very thing that the terrorist group most values. For example, if a terrorist organization were
struggling with another group for control of their common homeland, the use of nuclear weapons
against the enemy group would devastate the terrorists' own home territory. Using nuclear weapons would be
extremely counterproductive for the terrorists in this scenario.

Democracy promotion causes warleaders need to use nationalist cries to rally the public
together and they militarize quickly because the military often has too much influence
Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder 95 (Mansfield is Associate Professor of Political Science at Columbia University Snyder is
Professor of Political Science and Director of the Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, Democratization and War,
Foreign Affairs Vol. 74, No. 3 //Bobby)
DEMOCRATIZATION typically creates a syndrome of weak central authority, unstable domestic
coalitions, and high-energy mass politics. It brings new social groups and classes onto the political
stage. Political leaders, finding no way to reconcile incompatible interests, resort to shortsighted
bargains or reckless gambles in order to maintain their governing coalitions. Elites need to gain mass
allies to defend their weakened positions. Both the newly ambitious elites and the embattled old
ruling groups often use appeals to nationalism to stay astride their unmanageable political coalitions.
Needingpublic support, they rouse the masses with nationalist propaganda but find that their mass
allies, once mobilized by passionate appeals, are difficult to control. So are the powerful remnants of
the old order--the military, for examplewhich promote militarism because it strengthens them
institutionally. This is particularly true because democratization weakens the central government's ability to
keep policy coherent and consistent. Governing a society that is democratizing is like driving a car
while throwing away the steering wheel, stepping on the gas, and fighting over which passenger will
be in the driver's seat. The result, often, is war.

Multiple empirics as to why democracy promotion fails
N. Scott Cole September 2007 (Ph.D. Associate Professor of Political Science Comparative Politics, Hugo Chavez and President Bush's
Credibility Gap: The Struggle against Us Democracy Promotion, International Political Science Review / Revue internationale de science
politique, Vol.28, No. 4, pp. 493-507, http://www.jstor.org/stable/20445108 //Bobby)
To date, little evidence exists to demonstrate that President Bush has been able to export freedom. More
democracies have not emerged as a result of his policies, and there are signs that authoritarian governments
are gaining strength (De Mesquita and Downs, 2005). There have been "color revolutions" in Georgia and Ukraine, which
some say were assisted by the White House. But these successes are offset by the USA's failures in Iran, Cuba,
Zimbabwe, Egypt, China, Syria, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Belarus. Add political uncertainties in Iraq and
Afghanistan to this list and Bush's policy appears to be in trouble. This article argues that the credibility gap is one factor
restricting the White House's ability to promote democracy.

Matt Struth
EXT: Snowden Alt Cause

Snowden wrecks relations
Prensa Latina 7-15 (7-15-13, "Snowden Case Complicates US Policy Towards Latin America"
www.plenglish.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1611371&Itemid=1

The revelations of U.S. former NSA agent Edward Snowden affects the U.S. foreign policy, particularly
the relations with Latin America, specialists affirm. The so-called U.S. backyard, as once described by
Secretary of State John Kerry, was outraged after learning the details of the activities of espionage
agencies in the continent, an article of Stars and Stripes magazine underlines. This is happening after
President Barack Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden recently expressed their intentions of
improving relations with the nations of the region, the newspaper highlights. Carl Meacham, former
advisor of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the U.S. Senate, considers the Snowden case has come as a
complete shock to the U.S. plans to strengthen relations with Latin America and the Caribbean.

Alt causeimperialistic attitude
Riechmann 7-15 (Deb, AP reporter, 7-15-13, Snowden affair chills U.S.-Latin American ties USA
Today) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/07/15/snowden-affair-chills-us-latin-american-
ties/2517081/

Obama got off to a slow start with Latin America. The president spent little time on the region during his
first term and uttered few, if any, words about the area during his re-election campaign, though he took
more than 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in winning a second term. In May, he went south to Mexico
and also traveled to Costa Rica to meet with Central American leaders. Passing immigration reform
would remove a major irritant in U.S.-Mexico relations and could prevent the U.S. from becoming more
isolated in the region, but the U.S. was facing problems in the area before the Snowden affair. In Bolivia,
Morales on May 1 acted on a long-time threat and expelled the U.S. Agency for International
Development, saying it was trying to undermine the government allegations the State Department said
were baseless. Morales said Washington "still has a mentality of domination and submission" in the
region, and he also harangued Kerry for offending the region when, in congressional testimony in April,
he said the "Western Hemisphere is our backyard."

Matt Struth
EXT: Arizona Alt Cause

( ) The Arizona law will spillover shattering regional coop.

Steinberg 10

14.By contrast, by pursuing a singular policy of criminal enforcement-at-all- costs through, among other things, imposing an
extraordinary mandatory verification regime coupled with what is effectively state criminalization of unlawful
presence, S.B. 1070 is likely to provoke retaliatory treatment of U.S. nationals overseas, weaken public
support among key domestic constituencies abroad for cooperating with the U.S, and endanger our
ability to negotiate international arrangements and to seek bilateral, regional or multilateral support
across a range of economic, human rights, security, and other non- immigration concerns, and be a source
of ongoing criticism in international fora. Arizona's unprecedented effort to set its own, contrary immigration policy predictably
conflicts with U.S. foreign policy interests and with the United States' ability to speak with one voice

( ) Federal government will be held accountable and The Arizona Law will kill coop.

Steinberg 10

32.As both a matter of international law and practice, the federal government is held accountable internationally for the
actions of state and local authorities regarding our treatment of foreign nationals. International bodies and foreign
governments do not typically distinguish between the conduct of the national government and the conduct of
an individual state within a federal system. This is starkly evidenced by the United States' experience in cases
where state and local government authorities have failed to comply with U.S. obligations under the VCCR to
provide consular notification to all foreign nationals in U.S. custody. Failure to provide such notice by state officials has led to three suits
by Paraguay, Germany and Mexico against the United States in the International Court of Justice, an advisory
opinion sought by Mexico in the Inter- American Court of Human Rights, a petition against the United States in the Inter- American Commission
on Human Rights, and bilateral complaints by numerous foreign governments. 33.The United States takes seriously allegations that it has failed
to adhere to its international law obligations and foreign policy commitments and engages in these fora to address such claims. Although the
government is fully prepared to defend U.S. practices against unjustified claims of human rights shortcomings, criticism from an
international body over immigration human rights issues can directly undercut the credibility of U.S.
efforts to advance human rights and can lead to significant diplomatic obstacles both on immigration
issues of bilateral concern and on other interests that might be the subject of diplomatic negotiations. As discussed below, in this
context, S.B 1070's sweep into subjects left properly to federal direction and control subjects the United
States to this criticism while denying the United States the tools to decide for itself whether and how to
adjust such policies. The federal government should have to make its defenses or consider appropriate modifications only with regard to
policies that are adopted through a considered process that reflects the interests of all the American people, not with regard to the views of one
state.

Matt Struth
( ) Arizona law hurts US coop in the region

Steinberg 10

A. Impact on Bilateral Relationships 36.S.B. 1070 has unquestionably generated negative reaction that has
damaged the public image of the United States and has thereby undermined the United States' ability to
pursue various diplomatic objectives. The law has provoked numerous public criticisms by governments with which the United States
maintains important and sensitive diplomatic relations. 37.In Mexico, S.B. 1070 has precipitated a sharply negative public
perception of the attitude toward immigrants in Arizona (and potentially by extension elsewhere in the U.S.), which in turn has
negatively affected diplomatic processes with Mexican government officials. The Mexican President, Mexican
Cabinet Members, the Mexican Congress, and opinion makers in Mexico all have reacted strongly in response to the
law. These voices have also expressed concern about the safety of Mexicans in Arizona. 38.During his recent visit to Washington, for example,
Mexico's President Calder& pointedly criticized the law, both during his joint press conference with President Obama on May 19 and in his
address to the United States Congress on May 20. Speaking to the Congress, he emphasized the need for comprehensive immigration reform and
focused attention specifically on the Arizona law: I am convinced that comprehensive immigration reform is also crucial to secure our common
border. However, I strongly disagree with the recently adopted law in Arizona. It is a law that not only ignores a reality that cannot be erased by
decree but also introduces a terrible idea: using racial profiling as a basis for law enforcement. And that is why I agree with President Obama,
who said the new law "carries a great amount of risk when core values that we all care about are breached." I want to bridge the gap of feelings
and emotions between our countries and our peoples. I believe in this. I believe in communications, I believe in cooperation, and we together
must find a better way to face and fix this common problem. 39.President CalderOn's criticisms reflect how negatively S.B. 1070 has affected
public attitudes in Mexico toward the United States. A recent poll in Mexico by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, for example, indicates
that whereas before the adoption of the Arizona law 62 percent of those polled had a favorable attitude
toward the United States and only 27 percent had an unfavorable attitude, following its adoption only 44 percent had a
favorable attitude toward the U.S., while 48 had an unfavorable attitude. See The A rizona Effect on U.S. Favorability in
Mexico, available at www.pewglobal.org . The poll demonstrates that an effort to establish a divergent immigration policy by a
single state, which has not yet even gone into effect, nevertheless can significantly harm foreign attitudes toward the
United States as a whole. Such effect in turn can seriously undermine support among important Mexican
constituencies for Mexico's cooperation with the United States.

Matt Struth
EXT: Drug Policy Alt Cause
( ) US Drug policy block US-Latin American relations

Shifter 12

In the spirit of shared responsibility, often invoked by senior US policy officials, it is critical that the US government respond to
increasing calls from Latin American leaders for a serious review of drug policy. As the Latin American
Commission on Drugs and Democracy made clear, current measures addressing the drug problem are not
working and alternatives need to be considered. That commission, led by three highly regarded former Latin American presidentsFernando
Henrique Cardoso of Brazil, Ernesto Zedillo of Mexico, and Csar Gaviria of Colombiarightly emphasized that drug problems and their
contributions to criminal violence and widespread corruption threaten the rule of law in a number of countries. The
commissions recommendationsincluding the decriminalization of marijuana, greater emphasis on drugs as a public health
problem, and increased support for harm reductionshould be taken seriously and should serve as a starting point for an honest
US-Latin American dialogue on the drug question. More serious attention and resources directed at reducing
consumption in the United States are essential. Since the commissions report in 2009, even some sitting Latin American presidents,
including Mexicos Felipe Caldern, Colombias Juan Manuel Santos, and Guatemalas Otto Prez Molina, have called for collective pursuit of
new drug policy options, including consideration of legalization. Although there is debate about the merits of alternative policiesand political
obstacles in the region and, particularly, in the United States, remain stronga serious discussion is urgently needed about how to be more
effective in dealing with the drug problem. This sense of urgency is underscored by the alarming crime statistics reported in the region.
According to the United Nations, Latin America has the highest rate of homicides per capita of any region in the world. Although the causes are
many, the narcotics trade is a key contributor.

Matt Struth
EXT: Terrorism Answers

( ) No nuclear terror theyll choose conventional weapons.

Mueller 8
John Mueller, political science professor at Ohio State University, The Atomic Terrorist: Assessing the Likelihood Jan. 1
http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/APSACHGO.PDF
Meanwhile, although there have been plenty of terrorist attacks in the world since 2001, all (thus far, at least)
have relied on conventional destructive methods--there hasn't even been the occasional gas bomb. In effect the terrorists
seem to be heeding the advice found in a memo on an al-Qaeda laptop seized in Pakistan in 2004: "Make use of that which is available...rather
than waste valuable time becoming despondent over that which is not within your reach" (Whitlock 2007). That is: Keep it simple, stupid. In fact,
it seems to be a general historical regularity that terrorists tend to prefer weapons that they know
and understand, not new, exotic ones (Rapoport 1999, 51; Gilmore 1999, 37; Schneier 2003, 236). Indeed, the truly notable
innovation for terrorists over the last few decades has not been in qualitative improvements in
ordnance at all, but rather in a more effective method for delivering it: the suicide bomber (Pape 2005, Bloom
2005).

( ) US wont use nuclear retaliation against non-state nuclear terror.

Washington Post 7
(Thursday, August 2, 2007 Obama says no nuclear weapons to fight terror http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/08/02/AR2007080201375_pf.html)

Presidential hopeful Barack Obama said Thursday he would not use nuclear weapons "in any circumstance" to fight
terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, drawing criticism from Hillary Rodham Clinton and other Democratic rivals."I think it would be a
profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance," Obama said, with a pause, "involving civilians." Then he
quickly added, "Let me scratch that. There's been no discussion of nuclear weapons. That's not on the table."

( ) No miscalc impact US-Russian safety systems check conflict.

Morrison 7
(James Morrison, formerly served as an assistant foreign editor for the Washington Times. Mr. Morrison returned to the Foreign Desk in 1993 to
launch the Embassy Row column, a diplomatic news column primarily focusing on foreign ambassadors in the United States and U.S.
ambassadors abroad. The column is the only one of its kind in U.S. journalism. The Washington Times, September 25, 2007, Sentinels on Guard,
lexis)

Despite growing foreign-policy disputes, Moscow and Washington have prevented an accidental nuclear
disaster with extensive communication links through Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers (NRRCs), Russian Ambassador
Yuri Ushakov said in a review of 20 years of the program established under President Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. "The NRRCs have
proved their efficiency as an instrument of transparency and confidence-building," he said in a speech last week at the
State Department. "Moreover, they have become a reliable mechanism designed to diminish and eliminate the very potential
threat of an accidental nuclear disaster."

Matt Struth
ENVIRO ANSWERS

Matt Struth
Enviro 1NC

Alt cause- Venezuela Waste leads to Environment Problems
Marquez 6-11
Humberto Marquez, (Biodiverse Venezuela Flunking Basic Conservation, June 13, 2011)

In the congested streets of Caracas, a concrete jungle set in a valley where five million people are
crowded elbow to elbow, 2.3 million cars and one million motorbikes circulate, according to figures
supplied by the mayors of the city's five municipalities. 'We have no precise figures for pollution, but the country has
over 300 large waste dumps open to the skies. Much of this waste is burned, and who knows what
quantities of dioxins and furans are being produced?' said lvarez. Dioxins are stable chemical compounds that contain
chlorine and are produced by burning. They are fat-soluble and pollute soils, sediments, the food chain and organic
tissues. Furans are volatile liquids that cause cancer. The 2001 Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants
(POPs), to which Venezuela and 172 other countries are party, set guidelines for programmes to minimise, if not eliminate, POP sources. But
Venezuela is lagging so far behind in these matters that 'of the 19,000 tonnes of waste produced daily,
barely 10 to 20 percent is recycled: 85 to 90 percent of aluminium or iron, but only one percent of organic material, two percent of plastics and 20
percent of paper and cardboard,' Daz said. Improper management of solid wastes and residues has for years been at the top of the list of
Venezuela's worst environmental problems in the Vitalis reports, until it was displaced as the main problem in 2010 by
lengthy drought and major flooding. The drought and flooding brought about emergencies and interruptions of the supply of electricity and
drinking water, and caused damages to roads and housing. Some 140,000 people were affected by the disasters, leading to street protests and
social crises. This was climate change's debut, as it were, in Venezuelan society, and the ARA researchers expressed concern over the forecast
that in spite of the unusually heavy rains in recent months, the country must prepare itself for a reduction of up to 25 percent in average annual
rainfall. Added to this is the predicted increase of 30 to 80 million tonnes per year in greenhouse gas emissions, if existing energy plans are
implemented. The state oil industry intends to raise crude production from the present level of 3.2 million barrels a day, according to official
figures, to 5.8 million barrels a day in the second half of the decade. The government also plans to add a further 8,000 megawatts of thermally-
generated electricity, using fossil fuels, to the current nominal capacity of 21,000 megawatts.

IADB projects hurt the environment
R.A.N. 08(Rainforest Action Network, Groups Protest Inter-American Development Bank, 4/4/2008,
http://ran.org/groups-protest-inter-american-development-bank)

MIAMI BEACH Representatives from Rainforest Action Network (RAN) and several other environmental and social justice groups from the
U.S. and South America held a rally today to protest the lending practices of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) outside the banks
49th annual meeting at the Miami Beach Convention Center. As a major source of financing for economic and social
development in Latin America, the IDB has a responsibility not to fund environmental destruction and
human rights abuses, said Andrea Samulon of Rainforest Action Network. The IDB is shirking that duty, and its
mechanism for accountability on these issues is practically nonexistent. The groups called on the bank to adopt needed
environmental safeguards in its lending practices. One mega-project the IDB is currently financing is the Initiative for the Integration of
South American Regional Infrastructure (IIRSA). Intended to establish roads and other industrial infrastructure throughout
South America, including the Amazon rainforest, the mega-project will displace Indigenous communities
and cause more deforestation at a time when the practice accounts for approximately 20 percent of worldwide greenhouse gas
emissions. Additionally, the bank has already approved $45 million in loans and technical cooperation funds to finance
agrofuel projects and is now considering another $3 billion for private sector loan projects. Studies have shown that agrofuel production
can result in more greenhouse gas emissions than traditional fossil fuels and has led to the displacement of millions of Indigenous peoples and
small farmers around the world. The IDB has also failed to adopt the international benchmark of free, prior and informed consent for Indigenous
communities that may be affected by its projects. Todays protest was part of a coordinated effort throughout the meeting to push the IDB to
reform its lending practices. Groups that endorsed and participated in the rally included: Amazon Watch, Friends of the Earth Brazil,
International Rivers, National Alliance of Latin American and Caribbean Communities, Center for Human Rights and the Environment
(CEDHA), Derechos Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (DAR), Asociacion Labor Civil, and Global Local Links. SUPPORTING STATEMENTS
Juan Carballo, Center for Human Rights and the Environment (CEDHA): The Inter-American Development Banks promotion of
IIRSA, a series of megaprojects designed to foster regional integration of South America, does not comply with its institutional social
and environmental policy. IIRSA represents a double standard, as evidenced by the IDBs lack of transparency and exclusion of
stakeholders most impacted by massive regional development.
Matt Struth

Environmental improvements now their evidence ignores long term trends
Hayward 11 [Steven P, american author, political commentator, and policy scholar. He argues for libertarian and conservative viewpoints
in his writings. He writes frequently on the topics of environmentalism, law, economics, and public policy.2011 Almanac of Environmental
Trends by Steven F. Hayward April 2011 ISBN-13: 978-1-934276-17-4, http://www.pacificresearch.org/docLib/20110419_almanac2011.pdf]

Quick: Whats the largest public-policy success story in American society over the last generation? The dramatic reduction in the
crime rate, which has helped make major American cities livable again? Or welfare reform, which saw the nations welfare rolls fall by more than
half since the early 1990s? Both of these accomplishments have received wide media attention. Yet the right answer might well be the
environment. As Figure 1 displays, the reduction in air pollution is comparable in magnitude to the reduction in the welfare rolls, and
greater than the reduction in the crime rateboth celebrated as major public-policy success stories of the last two decades. Aggregate
emissions of the six criteria pollutants1 regulated under the Clean Air Act have fallen by 53 percent since 1970, while the
proportion of the population receiving welfare assistance is down 48 percent from 1970, and the crime rate is only 6.4 percent below its 1970
level. (And as we shall see, this aggregate nationwide reduction in emissions greatly understates the actual improvement in ambient air quality in
the areas with the worst levels of air pollution.) Measures for water quality , toxic -chemical exposure , soil
erosion , forest growth , wetlands , and several other areas of environmental concern show similar
positive trends , as this Almanac reports. To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the demise of the environment have
been greatly exaggerated . Moreover, there is good reason to believe that these kinds of improvements will be
experienced in the rest of the world over the course of this century. Well examine some of the early evidence
that this is already starting to occur. The chief drivers of environmental improvement are economic growth, constantly increasing
resource efficiency, technological innovation in pollution control, and the deepening of environmental values among the American public that
have translated to changed behavior and consumer preferences. Government regulation has played a vital role, to be sure, but in the grand scheme
of things regulation can be understood as a lagging indicator, often achieving results at needlessly high cost, and sometimes failing completely.
Were it not for rising affluence and technological innovation, regulation would have much the same effect as King Canute commanding the tides.
INTRODUCTION introduction 3 figure 1 a comparison of crime rate, Welfare, and air Pollution, 19702007 -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0%
40.0% 60.0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 % of Population on Welfare Crime Rate (per 100,000 population) Aggregate
Emissions Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, EPA 4 Almanac of Environmental Trends The
American public remains largely unaware of these trends. For most of the last 40 years, public opinion about the environment has been
pessimistic, with large majoritiessometimes as high as 70 percenttelling pollsters that they think environmental quality in the United States is
getting worse instead of better, and will continue to get worse in the future. One reason for this state of opinion is media coverage, which
emphasizes bad news and crisis; another reason is environmental advocacy groups, for whom good news is bad news. As the cliche goes,
you cant sell many newspapers with headlines about airplanes landing safely, or about an oil tanker docking without a spill. Similarly, slow,
long-term trends dont make for good headline copy. INTRODUCTIONintroduction 5Improving Trends:Causes and
ConsequencesMost environmental commentary dwells on the laws and regulations we have adoptedto achieve our goals, but it is essential to
understand the more important role of technologyand economic growth in bringing about favorable environmental trends. Thebest way to see this
is to look at some long-term trends in environmental quality thatpredate modern environmental legislation.To be sure, the earliest phases of the
Industrial Revolution led to severe environmentaldegradation. But the inexorable process of technological innovation andthe drive for efficiency
began to remedy much of this damage far earlier than iscommonly perceived. In addition, new technologies that we commonly regard as
environmentally destructive often replaced older modes of human activity that were far worse by comparison. A good
example is the introduction of coal for heating andenergy in Britain.

No impact to the environment- hype
Ridder 8 PhD, School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania (Ben, Biodiversity And Conservation, 17.4,
Questioning the ecosystem services argument for biodiversity conservation) *ES = environmental services

The low resilience assumption
Advocates of the conservation of biodiversity tend not to acknowledge the distinction between resilient and sensitive ES. This low resilience
assumption gives rise to, and is reinforced by the almost ubiquitous claim within the conservation literature that ES depend on biodiversity.
An extreme example of this claim is made by the Ehrlichs in Extinction. They state that all [ecosystem services] will be
threatened if the rate of extinctions continues to increase then observe that attempts to artificially replicate natural processes
are no more than partially successful in most cases. Nature nearly always does it better. When society sacrifices natural services for some
other gain it must pay the costs of substitution (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1982, pp. 9596). This assertionthat the only alternative to
protecting every species is a world in which all ES have been substituted by artificial alternativesis an extreme example of the low
resilience assumption. Paul Ehrlich revisits this flawed logic in 1997 i nhis response (with four co-authors) to doubts expressed by Mark
Sagoff regarding economic arguments for species conservation (Ehrlich et al. 1997, p. 101). The claim that ES depend on biodiversity is also
notably present in the controversial Issues in Ecology paper on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (Naeem et al. 1999) that sparked the
debate mentioned in the introduction. This appears to reflect a general tendency among authors in this field (e.g., Hector et al. 2001; Lawler
Matt Struth
et al. 2002; Lyons et al. 2005). Although such authors may not actually articulate the low resilience assumption, presenting such claims in the
absence of any clarification indicates its influence. That the low resilience assumption is largely false is apparent in the
number of examples of species extinctions that have not brought about catastrophic ecosystem
collapse and decline in ES, and in the generally limited ecosystem influence of species on the cusp of
extinction. These issues have been raised by numerous authors, although given the absence of systematic attempts to verify propositions of
this sort, the evidence assembled is usually anecdotal and we are forced to trust that an unbiased account of the situation has been presented.
Fortunately a number of highly respected people have discussed this topic, not least being the prominent conservation biologist David
Ehrenfeld. In 1978 he described the conservation dilemma, which arises on the increasingly frequent occasions when we encounter a
threatened part of Nature but can find no rational reason for keeping it (Ehrenfeld 1981, p. 177). He continued with the following
observation: Have there been permanent and significant resource effects of the extinction, in the wild, of John Bartrams great discovery,
the beautiful tree Franklinia alatamaha, which had almost vanished from the earth when Bartram first set eyes upon it? Or a thousand species
of tiny beetles that we never knew existed before or after their probable extermination? Can we even be certain than the eastern forests of the
United States suffer the loss of their passenger pigeons and chestnuts in some tangible way that affects their vitality or permanence, their
value to us? (p. 192) Later, at the first conference on biodiversity, Ehrenfeld (1988) reflected that most species do not seem to
have any conventional value at all and that the rarest species are the ones least likely to be
missed by no stretch of the imagination can we make them out to be vital cogs in the ecological mach
ine (p. 215). The appearance of comments within the environmental literature that are consistent with Ehrenfeldsand from authors
whose academic standing is also worthy of respectis uncommon but not unheard of (e.g., Tudge 1989; Ghilarov 1996; Sagoff 1997;
Slobodkin 2001; Western 2001). The low resilience assumption is also undermined by the overwhelming tendency for the protection of
specific endangered species to be justified by moral or aesthetic arguments, or a basic appeal to the necessity of conserving biodiversity,
rather than by emphasising the actual ES these species provide or might be able to provide humanity. Often the only services that can be
promoted in this regard relate to the scientific or cultural value of conserving a particular species, and the tourism revenue that might be
associated with its continued existence. The preservation of such services is of an entirely different order compared with
the collapse of human civilization predicted by the more pessimistic environmental authors. The popularity
of the low resilience assumption is in part explained by the increased rhetorical force of arguments that highlight
connections between the conservation of biodiversity, human survival and economic profit. However, it needs to be acknowledged by those
who employ this approach that a number of negative implications are associated with any use of economic arguments to justify the
conservation of biodiversity.

Matt Struth
EXT: Impact Defense

This impact is flawed science and is empirically denied
Campbell 11 (Hank, Science Writer for Science 2.0, I Wouldn't Worry About The Latest Mass Extinction Scare, March 8
th
,
http://www.science20.com/science_20/i_wouldnt_worry_about_latest_mass_extinction_scare-76989,

You've seen it everywhere by now - Earth's sixth mass extinction: Is it almost here? and other articles discussing an article in Nature
(471, 5157 doi:10.1038/nature09678) claiming the end of the world is nigh. Hey, I like to live in important times. So do most people.
And something so important it has only happened 5 times in 540 million years, well that is really special. But is it real? Anthony
Barnosky, integrative biologist at the University of California at Berkeley and first author of the paper, claims that if currently threatened
species, those officially classed as critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable, actually went extinct, and that rate of extinction
continued, the sixth mass extinction could arrive in 3-22 centuries. Wait, what?? That's a lot of helping verbs confusing what should be a
fairly clear issue, if it were clear. If you know anything about species and extinction, you have already read
one paragraph of my overview and seen the flaws in their model. Taking a few extinct mammal
species that we know about and then extrapolating that out to be extinction hysteria right now if we
don't do something about global warming is not good science. Worse, an integrative biologist is saying evolution
does not happen. Polar bears did not exist forever, they came into existence 150,000 years ago - because of the Ice Age. Greenpeace co-
founder and ecologist Dr. Patrick Moore told a global warming skepticism site, I quit my life-long subscription to National Geographic
when they published a similar 'sixth mass extinction' article in February 1999. This [latest journal] Nature article just re-hashes this theme
and "The fact that the study did make it through peer-review indicates that the peer review process has become corrupted. Well, how did it
make it through peer review? Read this bizarre justification of their methodology; "If you look only at the critically endangered mammals--
those where the risk of extinction is at least 50 percent within three of their generations--and assume that their time will run out and they will
be extinct in 1,000 years, that puts us clearly outside any range of normal and tells us that we are moving into the mass extinction realm."
Well, greater extinctions occurred when Europeans visited the Americas and in a much shorter
time. And since we don't know how many species there are now, or have ever been, if someone makes a model and claims tens of
thousands of species are going extinct today, that sets off cultural alarms. It's not science, though. If only 1% of species have gone extinct
in the groups we really know much about, that is hardly a time for panic, especially if some 99 percent of all species that have
ever existed we don't know anything about because they...went extinct. And we did not. It won't
keep some researchers, and the mass media, from pushing the panic button. Co-author Charles
Marshall, also an integrative biologist at UC-Berkeley wants to keep the panic button fully engaged by
emphasizing that the small number of recorded extinctions to date does not mean we are not in a crisis.
"Just because the magnitude is low compared to the biggest mass extinctions we've seen in half a
billion years doesn't mean they aren't significant." It's a double negative, bad logic and
questionable science, though.

Adaptation solves
Thompson et al. 9 (Ian Thompson et al., Canadian Forest Service, Brendan Mackey, The Australian National University, The Fenner
School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Steven McNulty, USDA Forest Service, Alex Mosseler,
Canadian Forest Service, 2009, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity Forest Resilience, Biodiversity, and Climate Change
Convention on Biological Diversity

Concerns have been expressed that predicted climate changes (IPCC 2007) may occur too quickly for species to
adapt (Huntley 1991, Davis and Shaw 2001, Jump and Penuelas 2005), but genetically diverse species are capable of
rapid evolution (Geber and Dawson 1993). Many species have adapted to rapid changes and have done so
repeatedly over geological time through dispersal and genetic changes based on the extant genetic
diversity within local or regional gene pools, suggesting long-term genetic- based resilience to change.
There is considerable evidence for adaptation in the geological and fossil record (Bernabo and Webb 1977,
Webb 1981, Davis 1983, Huntley and Birks 1983, and review by Geber and Dawson 1993). Such adaptation has been demonstrated
by forest plants during or following past glacial and interglacial episodes, which were characterized by
relatively rapid climate change (Huntley and Webb 1988).

Matt Struth
The environment is resilient and indestructible
Easterbrook 95 (Distinguished Fellow, Fullbright Foundation (Gregg, A Moment on Earth pg 25)

IN THE AFTERMATH OF EVENTS SUCH AS LOVE CANAL OR THE Exxon Valdez oil spill, every
reference to the environment is prefaced with the adjective "fragile." "Fragile environment" has become a welded phrase
of the modern lexicon, like "aging hippie" or "fugitive financier." But the notion of a fragile environment is profoundly wrong. Individual
animals, plants, and people are distressingly fragile. The environment that contains them is close to indestructible. The
living environment of Earth has survived ice ages; bombardments of cosmic radiation more deadly
than atomic fallout; solar radiation more powerful than the worst-case projection for ozone
depletion; thousand-year periods of intense volcanism releasing global air pollution far worse than
that made by any factory; reversals of the planet's magnetic poles; the rearrangement of continents;
transformation of plains into mountain ranges and of seas into plains; fluctuations of ocean currents and
the jet stream; 300-foot vacillations in sea levels; shortening and lengthening of the seasons caused by
shifts in the planetary axis; collisions of asteroids and comets bearing far more force than man's
nuclear arsenals; and the years without summer that followed these impacts. Yet hearts beat on, and
petals unfold still. Were the environment fragile it would have expired many eons before the advent
of the industrial affronts of the dreaming ape. Human assaults on the environment, though mischievous, are
pinpricks compared to forces of the magnitude nature is accustomed to resisting.

Matt Struth
A2 Amazon
No impact to Amazon
Morano and Washburn 2k (Marc and Kent, Producers of American Investigator's "Amazon Rainforest: Clear-Cutting the Myths"
Shaky Science Behind Save-Rainforest Effort, 6-26, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=17543)

Another familiar claim of the environmentalist community is that the Amazon constitutes the "lungs of the earth,"
supplying one-fifth of the world's oxygen. But, according to Antonio Donato Nobre of INPE, and other eco-scientists, the
Amazon consumes as much oxygen as it produces, and Stott says it may actually be a net user of oxygen.
"In fact, because the trees fall down and decay, rainforests actually take in slightly more oxygen than
they give out," says Stott. "The idea of them soaking up carbon dioxide and giving out oxygen is a myth. It's only
fast-growing young trees that actually take up carbon dioxide." Stott maintains that the tropical forests of the world
are "basically irrelevant" when it comes to regulating or influencing global weather. He explains that the oceans
have a much greater impact. "Most things that happen on land are mere blips to the system, basically
insignificant," he says.

Too many alt causes- conclusive study
Lane 8 (Jim, World Wildlife Fund Exonerates Ethanol on Amazonian Deforestation and Food Production, Biofuels Digest, Lexis)

May 27, 2008 (Biofuels Digest delivered by Newstex) -- The World Wildlife Fund has concluded, in a new study profiled on the BBC, that
"ethanol production is not having a significant impact on food production, and that it is not contributing to deforestation
in the Amazon." The report concludes that sugar cane ethanol has a positive impact on the environment. The report called for strict
monitoring to protect remaining rainforest areas." In Brazil, the federal government announced a crackdown on illegal deforestation in the
Amazonian rainforest. Biofuels producers have been accused of causing deforestation, however the authorities are targeting soy farmers,
cattle ranchers and illegal timber operators in 36 pockets where increased deforestation has occurred. An emergency meeting of the Brazilian
cabinet had been been called by President Luiz In cio Lula da Silva after a 50 percent jump in deforestation rates, following a steady three-
year decline. A German academic has analyzed the factors that are causing deforestation of the Amazon,
and concluded that sugarcane ethanol production in south-central Brazil is not pushing cattle and soy farming into the Amazon region.
Peter Zuurbier, Associate Professor and Director of the Wageningen UR Latin America Office, said that the problem
is unclear land titles, unscrupulous timber companies, and poor soil conservation practices by
cattle ranchers. He said that after illegal clear cutting by timber companies, the land is occupied by nomadic cattle herds that, over a
period of 3 to 4 years, ruin the thin soil of the Amazon areas, which causes fertilizer-based soy farming to be brought into the area to improve
productivity. Researchers say that Amazonian deforestation has increased in pace in 2007 and is likely to rise throughout 2008. Carlos
Nobre, a scientist with Brazil's National Institute for Space Research, said that 2,300 square miles of forest had been converted to farmland in
the past four months, compared with 3,700 square miles in the 12 months ending last July.

Matt Struth
A2 Warming

Cant solve warming
AP 9 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, http://www.speedy-
fit.co.uk/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=168)

Earth's temperature is likely to jump six degrees between now and the end of the century even if every
country cuts greenhouse gas emissions as proposed, according to a United Nations update. Scientists looked
at emission plans from 192 nations and calculated what would happen to global warming. The projections take
into account 80 percent emission cuts from the U.S. and Europe by 2050, which are not sure things. The
U.S. figure is based on a bill that passed the House of Representatives but is running into resistance in the Senate, where debate has been delayed
by health care reform efforts. Carbon dioxide, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, is the main cause of global warming,
trapping the sun's energy in the atmosphere. The world's average temperature has already risen 1.4 degrees since the 19th century. Much of
projected rise in temperature is because of developing nations, which aren't talking much about cutting
their emissions, scientists said at a United Nations press conference Thursday. China alone adds nearly 2 degrees to the
projections. "We are headed toward very serious changes in our planet," said Achim Steiner, head of the U.N.'s environment program, which
issued the update on Thursday. The review looked at some 400 peer-reviewed papers on climate over the last three years. Even if the
developed world cuts its emissions by 80 percent and the developing world cuts theirs in half by
2050, as some experts propose, the world is still facing a 3-degree increase by the end of the century, said Robert
Corell, a prominent U.S. climate scientist who helped oversee the update. Corell said the most likely agreement out of the international climate
negotiations in Copenhagen in December still translates into a nearly 5-degree increase in world temperature by the end of the century. European
leaders and the Obama White House have set a goal to limit warming to just a couple degrees. The U.N.'s environment program unveiled the
update on peer-reviewed climate change science to tell diplomats how hot the planet is getting. The last big report from the Nobel Prize-winning
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change came out more than two years ago and is based on science that is at least three to four years old,
Steiner said. Global warming is speeding up, especially in the Arctic, and that means that some top-level science projections from 2007 are
already out of date and overly optimistic. Corell, who headed an assessment of warming in the Arctic, said global warming "is accelerating in
ways that we are not anticipating." Because Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are melting far faster than thought, it looks like the seas will
rise twice as fast as projected just three years ago, Corell said. He said seas should rise about a foot every 20 to 25 years.

Warming wont cause extinction
Barrett 7 professor of natural resource economics Columbia University, (Scott, Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public
Goods, introduction)

First, climate change does not threaten the survival of the human species.5 If unchecked, it will cause other species
to become extinction (though biodiversity is being depleted now due to other reasons). It will alter critical
ecosystems (though this is also happening now, and for reasons unrelated to climate change). It will reduce land area
as the seas rise, and in the process displace human populations. Catastrophic climate change is possible, but not certain.
Moreover, and unlike an asteroid collision, large changes (such as sea level rise of, say, ten meters) will likely take
centuries to unfold, giving societies time to adjust. Abrupt climate change is also possible, and will occur more rapidly,
perhaps over a decade or two. However, abrupt climate change (such as a weakening in the North Atlantic circulation), though
potentially very serious, is unlikely to be ruinous. Human-induced climate change is an experiment of planetary proportions, and we
cannot be sur of its consequences. Even in a worse case scenario, however, global climate change is not the equivalent
of the Earth being hit by mega-asteroid. Indeed, if it were as damaging as this, and if we were sure that it would
be this harmful, then our incentive to address this threat would be overwhelming. The challenge would still be more
difficult than asteroid defense, but we would have done much more about it by now.

Matt Struth
OFF-CASE LINKS

Matt Struth
China CP Solvency
China solves better
Gallagher et. al 2012 [Keven Gallagher, Amos Irwin, Katherine Koleski - Keven Gallagher is an
Associate Professor of International Relations at Boston University, Inter-American Dialogue; The New
Banks in Town: Chinese Finance in Latin America; March 2012;
http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/TheNewBanksinTown-FullTextnewversion.pdf //accessed
7/21/13/NL]

China has only just started providing financing to Latin America, but in 2010 it already
loaned more than the World Bank, IDB and US Ex-Im Bank combined (Table 2). Prior o
2008, Chinas annual lending never exceeded $1 billion. But in 2008, loans ramped up to $6 billion. In
2009, lending tripled again to $18 billion, passing the World Banks $14 billion and IDBs $15 billion. In
2010, lending doubled once more to $37 billion, well above loan levels of the World Bank ($14 billion)
and IDB ($12 billion). China overtook the World Bank and IDB despite the fact that, from 2006 to 2010,
both those banks had doubled their lending to the region. Since 2005, China Ex-Im Bank has out-financed
US Ex-Im by a factor of almost four, $8.3 billion to $2.2 billion. That said, both China and US Ex-Im
banks have historically concentrated on guarantees and insurance, and these direct loans comprise only a
small part of their portfolios.

China solves better
Gallagher et. al 2012 [Keven Gallagher, Amos Irwin, Katherine Koleski - Keven Gallagher is an
Associate Professor of International Relations at Boston University, Inter-American Dialogue; The New
Banks in Town: Chinese Finance in Latin America; March 2012;
http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/TheNewBanksinTown-FullTextnewversion.pdf //accessed
7/21/13/NL]

For Ecuador and Venezuela, the large influx of Chinese lending has served as a key source of foreign
finance. The World Bank has almost no lending presence in these countries; since 2005, it has given two
small loans to Ecuador and nothing to Venezuela. IDBs lending to these countries was higher in both
absolute and relative terms in 2009- 2010 than it was in 2006-2008. The increase in lending in 2009-2010
is significant, since Chinese lending over the same period exploded from zero to over 20 times IDB
lending. IDB lending had been higher in 2005, but it fell years before China began lending to these
countries. Viewed in this context, Chinese lending is adding to, rather than replacing, IDB lending
Chinese and Western banks also differed in another way. Chinas loans were much larger. The
overwhelming majority of Chinese financing packages to LAC were $1 billion or greater, compared to 22
percent for the World Bank and 9 percent for IDB. Some 93 percent of the large World Bank and IDB
loans went to Brazil and Mexico, with the remaining 7 percent for Argentina. Meanwhile, 68 percent of
Chinas large loans went to Ecuador, Bolivia, and Venezuelacountries where large loans from Western
banks have been absent.

Matt Struth
Politics
U.S. Government Hates the Venezuelan Government.
Shamus Cooke is a social service worker, trade unionist, and writer for Workers Action.
http://upsidedownworld.org/main/venezuela-archives-35/2035-why-the-us-government-hates-venezuela
4 August 2009

The propaganda wheels are turning fast. The barrage of anti-Venezuela misinformation that began
while Bush was in office has intensified in recent months. Not a week goes by without the U.S.
mainstream media running at least one story about the "dictatorial" Venezuelan government. Historically, the U.S. government's
foreign policy "coincidentally" matches the opinion of the media and vice versa. A front page New York Times
article on August 2, 2009 cited "new evidence" that the Venezuelan government "still"
supports the FARC a peasant-based guerrilla group that has fought the Colombian
government for decades. This "new evidence" is a mere recycling of the last tactical
attempt to link the Venezuelan government with the FARC: computers were supposedly
confiscated from FARC leaders that showed innumerable ties to Venezuelan
government officials. Of course anybody can write anything on a computer and say it came from somewhere
else. Evidence like this needs only a willing accomplice the media to legitimize it. The Venezuelan government denies the
accusations. But even if Venezuela maintained a policy of openly supporting the FARC, it would be more justifiable than the U.S.
policy of openly supporting the Colombian government. Colombia is the most-hated and repressive government in the western
hemisphere, but the U.S. gives billions of dollars of financial, military and political aide. This despicable relationship has not ended
under Obama, but has in fact strengthened. The recent announcement that the U.S. military would move potentially thousands of
troops to Colombia, where they will access five Colombian military bases, has put Venezuela and the rest of Latin America on
alert. The Obama administration has not explained the move publicly, though Latin Americans need no explanation. The continent
has a long history of being exploited by U.S. corporations, who work in tandem with the U.S. government to oust "non-cooperative"
governments, using countless tactics to meet their objectives including clandestine C.I.A. coups. The recent U.S.-backed military
coup in Honduras sent shockwaves throughout the region, exposing the Obama administration for what it is: yet another
government dedicated to the interests of the super-wealthy and corporations, who want their "investments" in Latin America to be
protected from "populist" governments who redistribute wealth and land. U.S. corporations have felt their power
slipping in the hemisphere for years, much of it due to the influence of Venezuela. This
is because social movements in Venezuela have advanced further than anywhere else in
the world factories have been taken over and run by workers, community councils make local
decisions democratically, land is being taken over by peasants, independent media is spreading, and the
property of U.S. corporations has been taken over to be used for the needs of the average
Venezuelan. Although the vast majority of these gains are due to the work of grassroots Venezuelans, the
government has not only given approval to such actions, but often is responsible for
suggesting the ideas.Venezuela's example has dramatically changed the political
landscape in Latin America, inspiring millions. For the first time, governments and social movements alike feel
empowered to oppose U.S. corporate dominance and instead are seeking to arrange their economies in ways that benefit the
majority of people. In Venezuela these ideas are often referred to as 21st century socialism, and the rest of the hemisphere is
clamoring to get on board. The battle of ideas between 21st century socialism and free-market capitalism has already been settled in
the region, with capitalism facing utter defeat.Having lost in the realm of ideas, those supporting capitalism must compensate by
other means. Barack Obama is a very outspoken devotee of capitalism, and has shown by his coup in Honduras and also the
military build-up in Colombia that he will go to any length to prop-up U.S. corporations and rich investors in the region.There
can be absolutely no doubt that Obama will seek to undermine the Venezuelan
government by any means available, including the very real possibility of a proxy
invasion through Colombia. None of these attempts to undermine the advances in Venezuela
and other countries will benefit the peoples of Latin America or the United States, minus a tiny minority of the super
wealthy. With this kind of understanding often comes organizing and action, with the ultimate aim to end U.S.
economic and military intervention abroad, not only in Latin America, but the Middle East and beyond.

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