Military Technology Assessment

IAFF 6186
Spring 2013
Profs. Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich
ESIA 605E
202-994-5731
sbiddle@gwu.edu
ivan.c.oelrich@gmail.com
Office Hours by appointment

Technology assessment is fundamental to modern defense analysis. Almost every study
done in the U.S. defense planning community involves some assessment of weapons effects,
and for most, equipment cost-effectiveness is the central focus of the work and the very reason
the sponsor commissioned the analysis. Much of the research agenda at defense think tanks
and DoD analysis agencies thus revolves around technology assessment. Analyses of this kind
affect hundreds of billions of dollars a year in defense expenditure. Use of the systems that
result can make the difference between victory and defeat in war, and can mean the life or
death of thousands of service personnel and civilians. The policy stakes in military technology
assessment thus couldnt be higher.
Given this, the demand for analysts who can perform these assessments is also high.
Thousands of professionals in this field perform technology assessment of one kind or anoth-
er, and most will spend the majority of their careers evaluating military technology. Proficien-
cy in this undertaking is among the most important skills a young analyst in this field can ac-
quire.
The purpose of this course is thus to equip you with the basic knowledge of military
technology you will need to succeed as a junior to mid-career professional in this field. To this
end, the focus throughout the semester will be on the requirements of sound analysis in a pro-
fessional policy advisory setting. Our goal is not to train you as an engineer, and we assume
no prior knowledge of technology and its analysis. But we do intend for you to understand
enough of the basics of how key military technologies work and especially, how the
strengths and weaknesses of different technologies interact in a constrained design environ-
ment to enable you to function effectively in the analytical workplace. The topics we cover
will be useful both for producers and consumers of such analyses if you expect to be a
member of a study team, an analytical project director, a government contract monitor for re-
search and analysis, an acquisition officer or program manager, a congressional staffer, or an
intelligence analyst, the material we cover should be of value. The course can also help those
outside the analytical profession to understand military technology and its role in war, but the
course is oriented chiefly toward those who will seek employment in the field after gradua-
tion.
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The course is intended to be complementary to other Elliott School coursework in Secu-
rity Policy Studies, and especially to two other offerings in the Defense Analysis track: IAFF
6186, Methods for Defense Policy Analysis; and a forthcoming course on the Conduct of War.
Ideally, students planning employment in this field after graduation will take all three courses,
and Military Technology Assessment is thus designed with the expectation that critical issues
of analytical method, military strategy and tactics, and the larger merits of policy on the use of
force will be treated in other coursework. Given this, we will not cover those topics here.
Military Technology Assessment focuses on the relative merits of competing technologies
not on the relative merits of technology as opposed to non-material policy initiatives, or the
larger impact of technology on the future of war or foreign policy. These latter issues are criti-
cally important. But to treat them properly requires an ability to integrate deep knowledge of
the technologies themselves and a deep knowledge of the conduct of war and the methods of
analysis this is best accomplished through a sequence of interrelated courses rather than a
single semester overview. (In particular, the relative merits of material and non-material con-
tributions to military outcomes will be a major theme in the forthcoming course on Conduct of
War, and is also treated in IAFF 6186.22, Military Power and Effectiveness.) And mastery of
technology assessment per se is an essential professional skill for students planning a career in
workplaces whose duties often revolve around technology and its analysis. This course there-
fore aims to develop professional analytical skills in assessing military technology per se it
is not meant to stand alone as a general treatment of military effectiveness or defense analysis
or security policy overall.
Learning Objectives
By the end of the course, you should be able to:
understand the basic principles of sensing, signal processing, weapon guidance,
stealth, armor protection, armor penetration, communication, and propulsion tech-
nologies;
understand the concept of design tradeoffs;
describe how changes in one major feature of a design will affect others; and
anticipate countermeasures to new systems and describe the limitations and adapta-
tions such countermeasures will require.
Of course, these are demanding objectives and we do not expect you to master them all
in a semester; ones skills in assessing technology should grow throughout ones career. We
do, however, expect you to display a basic awareness of the issues involved in each learning
objective, and a grasp of the key skills at a level appropriate to a promising junior professional
in the field. The greater the attainment demonstrated, the stronger the grade you should ex-
pect, and the grading system and course requirements are designed to evaluate your progress
in these specific tasks.
Course Mechanics
Weekly meetings will combine six lectures to present critical material not covered in
readings, and eight discussion seminars. When we lecture, outlines will be distributed via
Blackboard the day before the class. These outlines will take the form of the powerpoint slides
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we will use in lecture; we recommend you print them out and bring them to class to simplify
note taking. The slides per se will not be sufficient in themselves for success in the exam, so
note-taking will be necessary, but printed slides should make the note taking easier.
Discussion sections will focus on dissecting the design choices associated with selected
weapon and military equipment programs, and assessing possible countermeasures and coun-
ter-countermeasures that follow from these. The associated readings are intended to provide
descriptive details on these programs so as to enable meaningful discussion. It is important to
do these readings in advance of the assigned meeting. The discussion classes are critical for
mastering the learning objectives around which the exam and short papers are designed; the
other assigned reading is important too, but can usually be done when your schedule permits.
By contrast, the assignments associated with the seminar discussions must be read in advance
if you are to succeed in the course.
We will focus throughout on technology for continental warfare meaning combat ac-
tions on or above major land masses using conventional weapons. We thus exclude war at
sea, and the use of nuclear, biological, or chemical munitions. This is not meant to suggest
that naval warfare or weapons of mass destruction are unimportant. But we cannot cover all
topics of importance in appropriate depth in a single semester; the choices of emphasis and
de-emphasis here reflect only the need to avoid superficiality.
The reading load will average about 150 pages per week. Readings associated with lec-
tures are usually longer, but can be completed when convenient for you; they will be covered
on the final exam, but will not be discussed extensively in class. The readings associated with
the seminar discussions are much shorter, but must be completed prior to the seminar where
they will be discussed. All readings are available on reserve in the library; where possible,
electronic versions are posted on Blackboard, and URLs for downloadable versions are given
in the reading list below.
Course requirements are a take-home final exam, two short essays, and active class par-
ticipation.
The final exam will be distributed via email 48 hours before it is due, and will empha-
size, per the learning objectives for the course, your ability to weigh design tradeoffs and
evaluate measure-countermeasure dynamics. It will therefore center on a series of essay ques-
tions presenting pairs of weapon or equipment programs that we will not previously have cov-
ered in class, which you will be asked to assess using the skills and techniques we have cov-
ered. There will also be short-answer questions to evaluate your grasp of the lectures and as-
signed readings, but the heart of the exam will be the technology assessment essays.
As preparation for this exam, you will also be required to prepare two short, graded es-
says (each a maximum of 2,500 words) assessing technologies to be covered in particular
seminar discussions. You may choose any two of the seminar session topics from the semester
for this requirement. For each, the essay is due at the beginning of the associated class.
To give you an appropriate incentive for discussion preparation, we will also grade class
participation, albeit for only ten percent of the semester grade. This evaluation will cover both
the quantity and the quality of your contributions to our deliberations, but the latter will weigh
more heavily than the former.
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Course Requirements and Grading
Final exam 50%
Short Essay I 20%
Short Essay II 20%
Participation 10%
Final grades will be curved to a roughly B+ median.
The GW Academic Integrity Code is in effect for this course.

Outline of Class Meetings

Introduction to the course, and
Lecture I: Principles of technology assessment January 16
Ground Combat Vehicles
Lecture II: Principles of ground combat vehicle technology January 23
Seminar discussion January 30
Seminar discussion February 6
Sensors and Guidance
Lecture III: Principles of sensor and guidance technology February 13
Seminar discussion February 20
Ordnance: Missiles and Bombs
Lecture IV: Principles of missile and bomb technology February 27
Seminar discussion March 6
Spring Break: no class meeting March 13
Seminar discussion March 20
Aircraft
Lecture V: Principles of military aircraft technology March 27
Seminar discussion April 3
Seminar discussion April 10
Communications Systems
Lecture VI: Principles of military communication technology April 17
Seminar discussion April 24

Take home final exam: distributed May 8, 12:00 noon; due May 10, 12:00 noon
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Reading List

Lecture I: Principles of technology assessment January 16
Natasha McCarthy, Engineering A Beginners Guide (Oxford: One World
Press), pp 67-86
J. F. C. Fuller, Armament and History (New York: Charles Scribners Sons,
1945), pp. 1-23.
Pierre Sprey, The Case for Better and Cheaper Weapons, in Asa Clark et al.,
eds., The Defense Reform Debate (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press,
1984), pp. 193-210
Jeffrey McKitrick and Peter Chiarelli, Defense Reform: An Appraisal, in Asa
Clark et al., eds., The Defense Reform Debate (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Uni-
versity Press, 1984), pp. 309-327; read only pp. 309-310, 319-322.
T.W. Lee, Military Technologies of the World, 2 vols., (Praeger, 2008), pp. xx-
xx
Lecture II: Principles of ground combat vehicle technology January 23
Robert Citino, Armored Forces: History and Sourcebook (Greenwood, 1994),
pp. 105-141.
Jonathan House, Combined Arms Warfare in the Twentieth Century (Law-
rence: University Press of Kansas, 2001), pp. 231-268
R.G. Lee, Introduction to Battlefield Weapons Systems and Technology, (Ox-
ford: Brasseys Defence Publishers, 1985), pp. 1-29.
I.F.B. Tytler, et al., Vehicles and Bridging (Oxford: Brasseys Defence Pub-
lishers, 1985), pp. 41-52
Seminar discussion January 30
M1-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), M2- Military
Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download)
Christopher Fass, ed, Janes Armour and Artillery 2001-2002, (Coulsdon:
Janes Information Group, 2001), PzH 2000, pp. 598-600, 122mm, pp.
622-624, 152mm, pp. 620-622, M107, pp. 636-637, M-109, pp. 640-
645, M-110, pp. 634-635.
Seminar discussion February 6
Stryker-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), Leclerc-
Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), T-64-Military Peri-
scope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), T-72-Military Periscope, (Mili-
taryPeriscope.com download), M-60-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeri-
scope.com download), AMX-10-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com
download), AMX-13-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download),
AMX-30-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download).
Lecture III: Principles of sensor and guidance technology February 13
Alfred Price, War in the Fourth Dimension: U.S. Electronic Warfare from Vi-
etnam to the Present (Greenhill, 2001), pp. 54-71, 257-262.
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Rebecca Grant, The Radar Game: Understanding Stealth and Aircraft Surviv-
ability (Arlington: IRIS, 2010), Winning the Radar Game, pp. 29-36 and
Stealth and Electronic Countermeasures, pp. 50-53.
(http://www.aef.org/Mitchell/reports/MS_RadarGame_0910.pdf)
J.C. Toomay and Paul J. Hannen, Radar Principles for the Non-Specialist,
(Scitech Publishing), pp. 1-11, 43-50, 111-124
A.L. Rodgers, et al., Surveillance and Target Acquisition Systems (Oxford:
Brasseys), pp. 1-7, 69-73, 85-86, 173-178
Seminar discussion February 20
(USA)-AN-APG-73-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download),
AN/SPY-1 Aegis-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download),
AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com down-
load)
Edward Downs, ed., Janes Avionics 2001-2002 (Coulsdon: Janes Infor-
mation Group, 2001), AN/APY-3, p. 595
Suggested: Uncooled Detectors for Thermal Imaging
(http://www.flir.com/uploadedfiles/Eurasia/MMC/Appl_Stories/AS_0015_EN.
pdf), Hurley FAQs, (http://www.hurleyir.com/faqs.html), Defense Industrial
Base Assessment: U.S. Imagaing and Sensors Industry, Chap II Technology
Overview.
http://www.bis.doc.gov/news/2006/wholereportwithappendices10_12_06.pdf
Lecture IV: Principles of missile and bomb technology February 27
Donald I. Blackwelder, The Long Road to Desert Storm and Beyond: The De-
velopment of Precision Guided Bombs (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University
Press, 1993), pp. 22-52. (http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-
bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA425579)
Michael Russell Rip and James M. Hasik, The Precision Revolution: GPS and
the Future of Aerial Warfare (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2002), pp.
14-48, 452-456.
Seminar discussion March 6
AIM9-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), AIM54-
Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), AIM120-Military
Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), ALARM-Military Periscope,
(MilitaryPeriscope.com download), Harm-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeri-
scope.com download), Harpoon-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com
download), Patriot-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download),
Paveway II-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), Pa-
veway II GBU10-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download),
Paveway III-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), Stand-
ard SM3-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), Stinger-
Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download).
Spring Break: no class meeting March 13
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Seminar discussion March 20
Dragon-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), Hellfire-
Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), Javelin-Military Per-
iscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com download), JDAM-Military Periscope,
(MilitaryPeriscope.com download), LOSAT-Military Periscope, (Military-
Periscope.com download), TOW-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com
download), Maverick-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com down-
load).
Lecture V: Principles of military aircraft technology March 27
John Olson, ed., A History of Air Warfare (Potomac, 2010), Chapter 11, Ben-
jamin Lambeth Operation Enduring Freedom, 2011, pp 255-277 and Chapter
12, William Murray, Operation Iraqi Freedom, 2003, pp. 279-296
Mike Spick, Modern Fighters (Washington, D.C: Brasseys, 2000), pp. 6-45,
74-77, 94-103, 132-139
D. Raymer, Aircraft Design: A Conceptual Approach (AIAA Education Series,
2011), pp. xx-xx
Seminar discussion April 3
Stratofortress (USA)-B-52-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com
download), Lancer (USA)-B-1B-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com
download), AGM-86 ALCM-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com
download), (USA)-AC-130H Spectre gunship-Military Periscope, (Military-
Periscope.com download)
Mark Lambert, ed., Janes All The Worlds Aircraft 1990-1991 (Coulsdon:
Janes Information Group, 1990), B-52, p. 389, B2, pp. 471-473
Paul Jackson, ed., Janes All The Worlds Aircraft 1999-2000 (Coulsdon:
Janes Information Group, 1990), B2- Spirit, pp. 705-708, C-130J, pp.
682-685.
Seminar discussion April 10
Paul Jackson, ed., Janes All The Worlds Aircraft 2001-2002 (Coulsdon:
Janes Information Group, 2001), F-15, pp. 575-577, F-16, pp. 689-698,
F-22, pp. 677-682, Mig-29, pp. 389-396
Mark Lambert, ed., Janes All The Worlds Aircraft 1990-1991 (Coulsdon:
Janes Information Group, 1990), F-15C/D Eagle, pp. 447-449.
F-5A Freedom Fighter-Military Periscope, (MilitaryPeriscope.com down-
load)
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Lecture VI: Principles of military communication technology April 17
Christopher Sterling, ed., Military Communications: From Ancient Times to
the 21st Century (ABC-Clio, 2007), entries on: Army Battlefield Command
System, pp. 34-35, Communications Satellites, pp. 92-96, Communications
Security, pp. 96-97, Electronice Countermeasures/Electronic Warfare, pp. 137-
139, Global Information Grid, pp. 192-193, Gul War, pp. 201-204, Iraq War,
pp. 240-242, Jamming, pp. 248-250, Joint Tactical Information Distribution
System, pp. 256-258, Joint Tactical Radio System, pp. 258-259, Single Chan-
nel Ground and Airborne Radio System, p. 412, Spectrum Frequen-
cies/Management, pp. 420-425, Spread Spectrum, pp. 508-509.
Martin Van Creveld, Command in War (Cambridge: Harvard University Press,
1987), pp. 1-11, 261-275, Satellite Communications, pp. 390-394
A.M. Willcox, M.G. Slade, and P.A. Ramsdale, Command, Control and Com-
munications (C
3
), (Oxford: Brasseys), pp. 7-19
Seminar discussion April 24
John Williamson, ed, Janes Military Communications 2001-2002, (Coulsdon:
Janes Information Group, 2001), AN/PRC-1177, p. 83, AN/PRC-77, p.
76, AN/PRC-148, p. 82, SINCGARS, pp.107-108.