ON THIS REPORT: Michael Dimock, Vice President, Research Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Vidya Krishnamurthy, Communications Director 202.419.4372 www.pewresearch.org
RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, June, 2014, Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD
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www.pewresearch.org About This Report This is the second report of a multi-part series based on a national survey of 10,013 adults nationwide, conducted January 23-March 16, 2014 by the Pew Research Center. The survey, funded in part through grants from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and supported by the generosity of Don C. and Jeane M. Bertsch, is aimed at understanding the nature and scope of political polarization in the American public, and how it interrelates with government, society and peoples personal lives. Principal Researchers Michael Dimock, Vice President, Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Alec Tyson, Senior Researcher
Research Team Juliana Menasce Horowitz, Associate Director Kyley McGeeney, Research Methodologist Rob Suls, Research Associate Jeffrey Gottfried, Research Associate Danielle Gewurz, Research Analyst Seth Motel, Research Analyst Matt Frei, Research Assistant Meredith Dost, Research Assistant Hannah Fingerhut, Research Intern Graphic Design Jessica Schillinger, Information Graphics Designer Diana Yoo, Art Director
Interactives Adam Nekola, Web Developer Russell Heimlich, Web Developer
Publishing Michael Suh, Web Production Coordinator
Colleagues from across the Pew Research Center contributed greatly to the development and execution of this research series. We would especially like to thank Alan Murray, Paul Taylor, Michael Piccorossi, Vidya Krishnamurthy, Claudia Deane, Sara Goo, Bruce Drake, Andrea Caumont, Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Amy Mitchell, Lee Rainie and Cary Funk for their methodological and editorial contributions. Above all, we want to thank Andy Kohut, our founding director, for his wisdom and guidance, and for building this institution and inventing the political typology 27 years ago. Douglas Steinley of the University of Missouri provided invaluable help with the cluster analysis that created the political typology. We also benefited from methodological assistance from staff at Abt SRBI, which collected the data (Charles DiSogra, Courtney Kennedy, Mark Schulman, Chintan
www.pewresearch.org Turakhia, Dean Williams), and from Jim Bell, Kyley McGeeney and Steve Schwarzer of the Pew Research Center. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. The center studies U.S. politics and policy views; media and journalism; internet and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and U.S. social and demo- graphic trends. All of the centers reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Alan Murray, President Michael Dimock, Vice President, Research Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Vice President Paul Taylor, Executive Vice President, Special Projects Andrew Kohut, Founding Director Managing Directors Jim Bell, Director of International Survey Research Alan Cooperman, Director, Pew Research Centers Religion & Public Life Project Claudia Deane, Director, Research Practices Carroll Doherty, Director, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research Vidya Krishnamurthy, Communications Director Mark Hugo Lopez, Director of Hispanic Research Amy Mitchell, Director of Journalism Research Kim Parker, Director of Social Trends Lee Rainie, Director, Pew Research Centers Internet & American Life Project Richard Wike, Director of Global Attitudes
Pew Research Center 2014
www.pewresearch.org Table of Contents Overview 1 Section 1: The Political Typology, Identity and Attitudes 15 Descriptions of the typology groups and their ideological consistency; partisanship; recent voting preferences; opinions about compromise; views of the parties, Tea Party and political figures Section 2: Views of the Nation, the Constitution and Government 33 Future of the country; American Exceptionalism; constitutional interpretation;core American values; trust in government; role of government Section 3: Fairness of the Economic System, Views of the Poor and the Social Safety Net 41 Economic fairness; attitudes about business, Wall Street, aid to the poor, individual success Section 4: Views on Immigration and Race 47 Immigration policy, racial equality, affirmative action Section 5: Views on Religion, the Bible, Evolution and Social Issues 53 Belief in God, Biblical interpretation, evolution; views on homosexuality, same-sex marriage, abortion, family and marriage, Islam Section 6: Foreign Affairs, Terrorism and Privacy 61 Activism in world affairs, military strength, privacy and the NSA, free trade, relationship with China Section 7: Global Warming, Environment and Energy 69 Global warming, environmental regulation, energy priorities, Keystone XL pipeline, Section 8: Health Care, Marijuana, Common Core, Other Domestic Issues 75 Affordable Care Act, Social Security, marijuana, gun policy, Common Core, gambling Section 9: Patriotism, Personal Traits, Lifestyles and Demographics 81 Section 10: Political Participation, Interest and Knowledge 93 Appendix 1: Typology Group Profiles 99 Appendix 2: About the Political Typology 115 Appendix 3: About the Surveys 123 Appendix 4: Survey Toplines 131
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Overview Even in an increasingly Red vs. Blue nation, the publics political attitudes and values come in many shades and hues. Partisan polarization the vast and growing gap between Republicans and Democrats is a defining feature of politics today. But beyond the ideological wings, which make up a minority of the public, the political landscape includes a center that is large and diverse, unified by frustration with politics and little else. As a result, both parties face formidable challenges in reaching beyond their bases to appeal to the middle of the electorate and build sustainable coalitions. The latest Pew Research Center political typology, which sorts voters into cohesive groups based on their attitudes and values, provides a field guide for this constantly changing landscape. Before reading further, take our quiz to see where you fit in the typology The new typology has eight groups: Three are strongly ideological, highly politically engaged and overwhelmingly partisan two on the right and one on the left. Steadfast Conservatives are staunch critics of government and the social safety net and are very socially conservative. Business Conservatives share Steadfast Conservatives preference for limited government, but differ in their support for Wall Street and business, as well as immigration reform. And Business Conservatives are far more moderate on social issues than are Steadfast Conservatives. The 2014 Political Typology: Polarized Wings, a Diverse Middle Percent of
General public Regist. voters Politically engaged % % % The Partisan Anchors 36 43 57 Steadfast Conservatives 12 15 19 Socially conservative populists
Business Conservatives 10 12 17 Pro-Wall Street, pro-immigrant
Solid Liberals 15 17 21 Liberal across-the-board
Less Partisan, Less Predictable 54 57 43 Young Outsiders 14 15 11 Conservative views on government, not social issues
Hard-Pressed Skeptics 13 13 9 Financially stressed and pessimistic
Next Generation Left 12 13 11 Young, liberal on social issues, less so on social safety net
Faith and Family Left 15 16 12 Racially diverse and religious
Bystanders 10 0 0 Young, diverse, on the sidelines of politics 100 100 100 N 10,013 7,999 4,767 2014 Political Typology. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. The politically engaged are registered to vote, closely follow public affairs and say they always or nearly always vote. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2
www.pewresearch.org At the other end of the spectrum, Solid Liberals express liberal attitudes across almost every realm government, the economy and business and foreign policy, as well as on race, homosexuality and abortion and are reliable and loyal Democratic voters. Taken together, these three groups form the electoral base of the Democratic and Republican Parties, and their influence on American politics is strong. While Solid Liberals, Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives collectively make up only 36% of the American public, they represent 43% of registered voters and fully 57% of the more politically engaged segment of the American public: those who regularly vote and routinely follow government and public affairs. The other typology groups are less partisan, less predictable and have little in common with each other or the groups at either end of the political spectrum. The one thing they do share is that they are less engaged politically than the groups on the right or left. Young Outsiders lean Republican but do not have a strong allegiance to the Republican Party; in fact they tend to dislike both political parties. On many issues, from their support for environmental regulation to their liberal views on social issues, they diverge from traditional GOP orthodoxy. Yet in their support for limited government, Young Outsiders are firmly in the Republicans camp. Hard-Pressed Skeptics have been battered by the struggling economy, and their difficult financial circumstances have left them resentful of both government and business. Despite their criticism of government performance, they back more generous government support for the poor and needy. Most Hard-Pressed Skeptics say they voted for Obama in 2012, though fewer than half approve of his job performance today. The Next Generation Left are young, relatively affluent and very liberal on social issues like same-sex marriage and abortion. But they have reservations about the cost of social programs. And while most of the Next Generation Left support affirmative action, they decisively reject the idea that racial discrimination is the main reason why many blacks are unable to get ahead. The Faith and Family Left lean Democratic, based on their confidence in government and support for federal programs to address the nations problems. But this very religious, racially and ethnically diverse group is uncomfortable with the pace of societal change, including the acceptance of homosexuality and non-traditional family structures. And finally, an eighth group, the Bystanders, representing 10% of the public, are on the sidelines of the political process. They are not registered to vote and pay very little attention to politics. 3
www.pewresearch.org The political typology sorts people into groups based on their attitudes and values, not their partisan labels. It is based on the largest political survey ever undertaken by the Pew Research Center, which also was the data source for our June 12 report Political Polarization in the American Public. The survey was conducted among 10,013 adults from January to March of this year. The report also includes data from follow- up interviews with many of the initial surveys respondents as part of the Pew Research Centers newly-created American Trends Panel. The polarization study found that more Americans today hold consistently liberal or consistently conservative values across a wide range of issues, that Democrats and Republicans are further apart ideologically and that more partisans express deeply negative views of the other political party, with many going so far as to see the other side as a threat to the nations well-being. Even so, most Americans do not view politics through uniformly liberal or conservative lenses, and more tend to stand apart from partisan antipathy than engage in it. But the typology shows that the center is hardly unified. Rather, it is a combination of groups, each with their own mix of political values, often held just as strongly as those on the left and the right, but just not organized in consistently liberal or conservative terms. Taken together, this center looks like it is halfway between the partisan wings. But when disaggregated, it becomes clear that there are many distinct voices in the center, often with as little in common with each other as with those who are on the left and the right. The Pew Research Centers political typology, launched 27 years ago, is an effort to look beyond Red vs. Blue in American politics, understanding that there are multiple dimensions to American political thinking, and that many people hold different combinations of values than the predominantly liberal and conservative platforms offered by the two political parties. Ideological Consistency vs. the Political Typology Earlier this year, the Pew Research Center conducted a survey of 10,013 adults nationwide as part of a broad investigation of political changes in the nation. The first report on this data focused on political polarization and used 10 survey questions on political values to gauge how ideologically consistent Americans have become on a traditional left-right index.
The Political Typology represents an entirely different approach to analyzing the American publics values. It looks at a broader range of questions (23 questions) and instead of focusing on a single left-right dimension it uses a cluster analysis to find groups of Americans with similar views across multiple dimensions. While more complex, the typology reveals fissures on the right and left that are not evident in a simpler left-right array. Moreover, it sheds light on the diversity of values represented in the center.
The two approaches complement one another: Most of the Solid Liberals are consistently liberal in their values, and the Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives combined make up nearly all of the consistent conservatives. See Section 1 for a further discussion of how these two approaches relate to each other. 2014 Political Typology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 4
www.pewresearch.org The new study highlights the challenges that both parties face heading into the 2014 and 2016 elections. Each can count on strong support from the three staunchly partisan groups; Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives on the right, and Solid Liberals on the left. In all three groups, 2014 midterm preferences are comparable to the overwhelming support these groups gave their partys presidential candidate in 2012. The middle groups in the typology are less predictable. To be sure, the Faith and Family Left and the Next Generation Left favor Democratic congressional candidates this year by roughly two-to-one margins. But they supported Barack Obama by wider margins in 2012, and their 2014 turnout is suspect. One early indicator of voter turnout is attention to government and public affairs, and fewer than half in these groups are following politics, compared with broad majorities in the more ideological groups. Middle Typology Groups Least Likely to Follow Government & Public Affairs % following government & public affairs most of the time
2014 Political Typology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 65 43 46 43 42 75 68 48 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total 5
www.pewresearch.org 6 27 27 37 53 88 88 44 88 63 61 51 33 6 6 46 Rep candidate Dem candidate 2012 Margin D+11 D+54 D+44 D+40 R+11 R+75 R+82 D+88 2014 Margin D+2 D+36 D+34 D+14 R+20 R+82 R+82 D+82 3 21 26 25 50 84 87 41 91 75 70 65 39 9 5 52 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Obama Romney And the Hard-Pressed Skeptics who say they supported Obama over Romney by a 65%-25% margin two years ago are more closely divided in 2014. As they look toward this years midterms, 51% plan to vote for the Democrat in their congressional district, while 37% plan to vote Republican. And the Republican-leaning Young Outsiders intend to vote Republican this fall by a somewhat larger margin (20 points) than they did in 2012 (11 points). Yet these groups also are less certain to turn out this fall compared with the more partisan bases.
Voting Preferences of the Typology Groups % who voted/intend to vote for 2012 Presidential Vote 2014 Congressional Preference
2014 Political Typology. Based on registered voters. 2012 vote based on those who recalled their vote. Other candidates not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 6
www.pewresearch.org The typology study may have even greater relevance for understanding 2016, both for the nomination contests and the general election. In both parties electoral coalitions, there are fissures on some of the most important dimensions in American politics. On the right, coalitional politics are focused on the Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives, both of whom lean Republican by overwhelming margins. Combined they make up about a quarter (27%) of all registered voters. Both groups are overwhelmingly white and mostly male; Steadfast Conservatives are older on average (67% age 50 and older) than Business Conservatives (53%). And while they represent two clearly different wings of the party one more downscale and pessimistic, one more wealthy and optimistic both are reliable GOP voting blocs. Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives agree that government should be smaller and play less of a role in the economy. They are unified in their intense opposition to President Obama fully 94% of Steadfast Conservatives and 96% of Business Conservatives disapprove of his job performance. Notably, nearly identical shares of both groups agree with the Tea Party (55% of Business Conservatives, 53% of Steadfast Conservatives). But these conservative groups differ in three important ways on policy debates that currently divide Republican leaders in Washington. First, Steadfast Conservatives take very conservative views on key social issues like homosexuality and immigration, while Business Conservatives are less conservative if not actually progressive on these issues. Nearly Steadfast, Business Conservatives Differ over Immigration, Homosexuality Where they generally agree Steadfast Cons Business Cons Steadfast- Bus. diff % % Disapprove of Barack Obamas job performance 94 96 -2 Govt is almost always wasteful & inefficient 91 88 +3 Govt is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 87 90 -3 Govt aid to the poor does more harm than good 86 80 +6 U.S. has been successful more because of reliance on long-standing principles 78 71 +7 Agree with Tea Party movement 53 55 -2
Where they differ Immigrants today are a burden because they take jobs, housing, health care 73 21 +52 Homosexuality should be discouraged by society 74 31 +43 U.S. efforts to solve world problems usually end up making things worse 55 20 +35 Wall Street helps economy more than it hurts 49 74 -25 As Americans, we can always find ways to solve problems 41 62 -21 2014 Political Typology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 7
www.pewresearch.org three-quarters of Steadfast Conservatives (74%) believe that homosexuality should be discouraged by society. Among Business Conservatives, just 31% think homosexuality should be discouraged; 58% believe it should be accepted. Business Conservatives have generally positive attitudes toward immigrants and 72% favor a path to citizenship for those in the U.S. illegally, if they meet certain conditions. Steadfast Conservatives are more critical of immigrants; 50% support a path to citizenship, the lowest share of any typology group. Second, just as Steadfast Conservatives are opposed to big government, they also are skeptical of big business. They believe that large corporations have too much power, and nearly half (48%) say the economic system unfairly favors powerful interests. By contrast, as their name suggests, Business Conservatives are far more positive about the free market, and overwhelmingly regard business and Wall Street positively. Finally, these two conservative groups differ over foreign policy. Steadfast Conservatives have doubts about U.S. international engagement and view free trade agreements as a bad thing for the U.S. while Business Conservatives are more supportive of the U.S. taking an active role in world affairs and free trade. 8
www.pewresearch.org Solid Liberals, who constitute 15% of the public and 17% of registered voters, are the anchor of the Democratic Partys electoral coalition the most avid and loyal voters, holding liberal views across nearly all issues. But the party must rely on support from the other Democratically-oriented groups in the typology the Faith and Family Left and Next Generation Left to be successful. While each of these groups leans Democratic by wide margins, they diverge from across-the-board liberal thinking in a number of critical ways that have implications for their loyalty and turnout. The Faith and Family Left is by far the most racially and ethnically diverse group in the typology: In fact, just 41% are white non-Hispanic; 30% are black, 19% are Hispanic and 8% are other or mixed race. The Faith and Family Left also is less affluent and less educated than the other Democratically-oriented groups, and is older as well. They also have strong religious convictions, which distinguishes them from Solid Liberals and the Next Generation Left. Fully 91% say it is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values. No more than about one-in-ten in the other Democratically-oriented groups agree. And the Faith and Family Left have much more conservative positions on social issues. Just 37% favor same-sex marriage, less than half the share of the other two groups on the left. Strains in the Democratic Coalition over Morality, Homosexuality, Expanding the Social Safety Net
Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Gen Left Key demographics % % % White 69 41 68 Non-white 29 57 31 Under 40 41 31 52 College grad+ 52 18 38
Where they generally agree Approve of Barack Obamas job performance 84 61 66 Government often does a better job than it gets credit for 70 63 67 Immigrants today strengthen our country because of hard work, talents 93 70 83 Sometimes laws to protect people from themselves are necessary 77 75 68 Where they differ Necessary to believe in God to be moral 11 91 7 Most people who want to get ahead can make it if theyre willing to work hard 29 82 77 Racial discrimination is the main reason many black people cant get ahead 80 31 19 Homosexuality should be accepted by society 93 43 88 Govt should do more for needy even if it means going deeper into debt 83 58 39 2014 Political Typology. Whites do not include Hispanics; non-whites include Hispanics, African Americans, Asian Americans and those of another or mixed race. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 9
www.pewresearch.org The Faith and Family Left support activist government and a strong social safety net, though by less overwhelming margins than Solid Liberals. And while the Faith and Family Left support affirmative action programs, just 31% believe that racial discrimination is the main reason many black people cant get ahead these days. Among the much less racially diverse Solid Liberals, 80% think racial discrimination is the main barrier to black progress. The Next Generation Left is the youngest of the typology groups. Roughly half (52%) are younger than 40, and this segment characterizes the liberal leanings of the Millennial (and younger Gen X) cohorts: The Next Generation Left embrace diversity, are generally positive about what government can do and are relatively upbeat about their own and the nations future. Yet in critical ways, the Next Generation Left have clear differences with Solid Liberals. While supportive of government, they have a fairly individualistic take on opportunity and self- achievement. As a result, they balk at the costs of expanding the social safety net just 39% say the government should do more to help needy Americans even if it means going deeper into debt. In addition, the Next Generation Left are less skeptical about business than the other Democratically-oriented groups. While they are no more likely than Solid Liberals to have investments in the stock market, a majority of the Next Generation Left (56%) say that Wall Street does more to help the economy than hurt it, compared with 36% of Solid Liberals. 10
www.pewresearch.org The wild cards in the new political typology are the Young Outsiders and the Hard-Pressed Skeptics. Both groups have weak partisan leanings, which are reflected in their early preferences in this falls midterms: Young Outsiders favor the Republican candidate, or lean Republican, by a 53% to 33% margin; Hard-Pressed Skeptics plan to vote Democratic by 51% to 37%. Whether many will show up at the polls is an open question: They are less likely than the core partisan typology groups to say they always vote. Nonetheless, Young Outsiders may present an attractive opportunity for the GOP. They are younger and more diverse than Republicans generally. Nearly half are under 40, compared with just 33% among all Republicans. Yet Young Outsiders do not feel very favorably toward the GOP; in fact, nearly as many have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party (34%) as the Republican Party (39%). Young Outsiders share Republicans deep opposition to increased government spending on social programs. About three-quarters of Young Outsiders (76%) say the government cant afford to spend more to help the needy. However, the Young Outsiders generational imprint on issues like homosexuality, diversity and the environment make the Republican Party an uncomfortable fit. In views of societal acceptance of homosexuality, for instance, Young Outsiders have more liberal views than the public overall, and are much more liberal than Republicans. Similarly, Hard-Pressed Skeptics have ambivalent views of the Democratic Party and disagree with Democrats on major issues as often, if not more, as they agree. Hard-Pressed Skeptics face the Young Outsiders Share Republicans Views on Government, Not Social Issues Key demographics Total public Rep/Rep leaners Young Outsiders % % % White 66 81 73 Non-white 33 18 26 Under 40 38 33 48
Political views Obama job approval 44 12 31 Fav view of Rep Party 37 68 39 Fav view of Dem Party 46 14 34
Govt cant afford to do much more for needy 51 73 76 Govt is almost always wasteful and inefficient 56 75 75
Stricter environmental laws, regs are worth cost 56 37 68 Homosexuality should be accepted by society 62 49 78 Favor legalization of marijuana 54 43 67 2014 Political Typology. Whites do not include Hispanics; non- whites include Hispanics, African Americans, Asian Americans and those of another or mixed race. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 11
www.pewresearch.org most difficult financial circumstances of any of the typology groups, More than half (56%) have family incomes of less than $30,000 a year and 67% say they often dont have enough money to make ends meet. In 2012, Hard-Pressed Skeptics say they voted for Obama over Mitt Romney by more than two-to-one (65% to 25%), but today just 44% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president; 48% disapprove. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are not in sync with mainstream Democratic thinking in views of Obamas major policy initiatives just 40% approve of the Affordable Care Act. And they take more conservative views on social issues, such as homosexuality and abortion, than do rank-and-file Democrats generally. So why do Hard-Pressed Skeptics remain in the Democrats camp, however marginally? In part, it may be because of their strong support for increased government social spending. Even though they take a dim view of government performance, 66% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics say the government should do more for the needy even if it means adding to the debt. That is little different from the 61% of all Democrats who favor more aid for the needy. And while Hard-Pressed Skeptics are not enthusiastic about the Democratic Party, in some ways they are even more critical of the GOP. For instance, about half of Hard-Pressed Skeptics (53%) believe that the Democratic Party cares about the middle class. But just 26% say the same about the Republican Party. Hard-Pressed Skeptics Critical of Government, But Favor More Spending Key demographics Total public Dem/Dem leaners Hard-Pressed Skeptics % % % College grad+ 27 30 9 Family income less than $30,000 34 38 56
Political views Obama job approval 44 73 44 Fav view of Rep Party 37 16 32 Fav view of Dem Party 46 79 46
Govt is almost always wasteful and inefficient 56 40 72 Govt should do more for needy even if it means going deeper into debt 43 61 66
Approve of Affordable Care Act 41 70 40 Homosexuality should be accepted by society 62 74 49 2014 Political Typology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 12
www.pewresearch.org The Pew Research Center created its first political typology in 1987, when President Ronald Reagan was reeling from the Iran-Contra affair and the front-runners for the upcoming presidential election were Sen. Gary Hart for the Democrats and Vice President George H.W. Bush for the GOP. Much has changed in politics over the past 27 years, of course. But some of the same fissures we identified in that first typology are still evident today. Today, Business Conservatives hold much more liberal positions on homosexuality and morality than do the other largely Republican group, Steadfast Conservatives. In 1987, Enterprise Republicans were much more tolerant than Moral Republicans on many of the social policy issues of the time, such as whether or not school boards should have the right to fire homosexual teachers. On the left today, the majority-non-white Faith and Family Left is highly religious and has much more conservative attitudes about the acceptability of homosexuality and abortion than do the Next Generation Left or Solid Liberals. But this same fissure existed in the late 1980s between what we then described as the Partisan Poor and Passive Poor and the more upscale 60s Democrats and Seculars. Every Typology study between 1987 and 2014 has found a very downbeat, financially stressed group who is skeptical of government, yet supports the programs that assist people facing economic disadvantages. Over time, we have referred to them as the Disaffected, the Embittered or today the Hard-Pressed Skeptics, and their political leanings have varied with administrations, issues and economic conditions. But not all has been constant in the political typology, reflecting changing generational, demographic and political contexts. An anchor of the Democratic Party in 1987 was the New Dealers, representing the generation raised during economic strife and World War II. With the New Deal generation largely gone, the Democratic coalition now leans heavily on the Next Generation Left, who are more socially liberal than their predecessors, but also somewhat more economically conservative. And the appearance of the Young Outsiders is a new group in the political landscape. Previous typology studies have found right-leaning groups, such as the Pro Government Conservatives in 2005, who proved critical to George W. Bushs reelection. Drawn to the GOP coalition by the partys positions on security issues and morality, they otherwise supported a more expansive view of government and social programs. The Young Outsiders today are very different, as they share 13
www.pewresearch.org the GOP bases deep skepticism of government programs, but favor a more limited foreign policy, and hold decidedly liberal social views. This is the second report of a multi-part series on political polarization based on a national survey of 10,013 adults nationwide, conducted January 23-March 16, 2014 by the Pew Research Center and funded in part through grants from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and supported by the generosity of Don C. and Jeane M. Bertsch. The first report, released June 12, focused on the nature, scope and trajectory of political polarization in the American public, and how it interrelates with government, society and peoples personal lives. This report uses cluster analysis to sort people into cohesive groups, based on their responses to 23 questions covering an array of political attitudes and values. First developed in 1987, the Pew Research Centers political typology has provided a portrait of the electorate at various points across five presidencies; the last typology study was released in May 2011. Over the course of 2014, the project will further explore the various factors that contribute to or stem from political polarization. A September report will examine how political polarization is linked to peoples information environments: Their news sources, social media habits and interpersonal communication networks. Other reports will look at how political polarization relates to where people live, their political environments, how they view themselves and others around them, their socioeconomic circumstances, generational changes and broader sociological and psychological personality traits. The data in this report are based on three independent survey administrations with the same randomly selected, nationally representative group of respondents. The first is the centers largest survey on domestic politics to date: the 2014 Political Polarization and Typology Survey, a national telephone survey of 10,013 adults, on landlines and cell phones, from January through March of this year. The other two surveys involved impaneling subsets of these respondents into the newly created American Trends Panel and following up with them via surveys conducted by Web, mail and telephone. The surveys are described in detail in the About the Surveys section of the report. 14
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www.pewresearch.org Section 1: The Political Typology, Identity and Attitudes This political typology is the sixth such study, following on previous studies in 1987, 1994, 1999 2005 and 2011. The typologies developed by the Pew Research Center are designed to describe the political landscape in some detail, going beyond self-identified partisanship or ideology. This years typology segments people based on their combination of 23 political values and beliefs. You can find your own place in the political typology using our online interactive. Our recent report on political polarization, which used the same survey analyzed in this report, found a rise in the share of the public that is consistently liberal or consistently conservative. These across-the-board liberals and conservatives are in full view in the typology, largely found in three loyal partisan groups: Solid Liberals on the left and Business Conservatives and Steadfast Conservatives on the right. The remaining four typology groups also each have a partisan imprint, but people in these groups do not fit as neatly into ideological molds. However, a significant limitation of the ideological scale used in the polarization report is that it treats political ideology as a single left-right scale. This approach is valuable in terms of tracking levels of ideological consistency over time, but it does a poor job of describing the political center other than that they dont hold consistently liberal or consistently conservative views. By taking into account a wider range of values, and looking for unique combinations of values, the political typology finds that the political center is remarkably fragmented and diverse. In fact, several of the groups that hold a mix of liberal and conservative views are nearly as politically distant from one another as Solid Liberals are from Steadfast or Business Conservatives. For instance, the Faith and Family Left hold liberal positions on the size of government and the social safety net but diverge from other Democratic groups in their degree of social conservatism. By contrast, Young Outsiders, a right leaning group, diverge from the conservative groups in their social liberalism, while holding deeply conservative values about the role of government and the social safety net. Both of these groups are ideologically mixed, but in different ways. Similarly, though few among either Hard-Pressed Skeptics or the Next Generation Left are ideologically consistent in their political values, and both groups have a Democratic cast, their political values are more different than similar. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are generally isolationist when it comes to foreign policy, and critical of government even as they support the social safety net, while the Next Generation Left favors U.S. engagement with other nations and is generally supportive of government, although lukewarm in its support for the social safety net. 16
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The typology divides the public into seven politically engaged groups, along with an eighth group of politically disengaged Bystanders. These groups are defined by their social and political values using 23 survey questions that address attitudes about government, business, privacy, foreign policy, the social safety net, individualism, religion, homosexuality, the environment, immigration and race. These measures are based on broadly oriented values designed to measure a persons underlying belief about what is right and wrong, acceptable or unacceptable, or what the government should or should not be involved in. The political typology is not based on opinions about political leaders, parties or current issues, nor are demographic characteristics used in its creation. The current typology is a departure from past typologies, since it does not take partisan affiliation or personal financial circumstances into account in creating the groups. Yet despite the absence of these inputs into the typology, the groups sort fairly cleanly along party lines. The full set of questionsalong with more details on how the groups are constructedcan be found here. 17
www.pewresearch.org Liberal Conservative 62% of Solid Liberals are consistenly liberal in their political values-- compared with just 12% of the public . Liberal Conservative Half (51%) of the Faith and Family Left hold an equal mix of liberal and conservative values.
Liberal Conservative Most (58%) in the Next Generation Left are left-of-center, but just 7% are consistently liberal Solid Liberals, as the name suggests, tend to hold liberal views across all value dimensions. This group is overwhelmingly Democratic: 89% call themselves Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, 91% voted for Barack Obama in 2012, and 88% intend to vote Democratic in the 2014 midterms. Though just 12% of Americans hold consistently liberal positions, Solid Liberals make up the vast majority (82%) of that group; 68% of Solid Liberals are consistently liberal, while an additional 30% are mostly liberal in their political values. While Democratic candidates can largely count on the support of Solid Liberals, the Faith and Family Left and the Next Generation Left are important, but less reliable, members of the Democratic coalition. Each of these groups has a decidedly Democratic orientation, but they diverge from across-the-board liberal thinking in a number of critical ways that have implications for their loyalty and enthusiasm. The Faith and Family Left are far more religious and socially conservative than other Democratically-oriented groups. But that is coupled with a strong support for government and a commitment to the social safety net. Overall, 51% of the Faith and Family Left hold about an equal mix of liberal and conservative values, while 38% are mostly liberal in their ideological leanings; just 6% are consistently liberal. The political values of the Next Generation Left are generally liberal, but they diverge from Solid Liberals in expressing somewhat less support for the social safety net and more positive views of business. In addition, this groups individualistic streak shows through in its views on race; unlike Solid Liberals, most in the Next Generation Left think that society has made the necessary changes to give blacks and whites equal rights. But in other realms they are deeply liberal; they are supporters of government, environmental protection and have positive views of immigrants. Still, their mix of The Democratic-Leaning Groups Distribution on a 10-item scale of political values Solid Liberals
Faith and Family Left
Next Generation Left
2014 Political Typology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 18
www.pewresearch.org Liberal Liberal Conservative Seven-in-ten (69%) Young Outsiders are ideologically mixed. Liberal Conservative Two-thirds (66%) of Hard-Pressed Skeptics take a roughly equal number of conservative and liberal positions. political values means that in contrast to Solid Liberals, even as 59% are left-of-center (with the remainder holding about an equal number of liberal and conservative positions), just 7% have down-the-line liberal political values. Two groups: Young Outsiders and Hard-Pressed Skeptics are political wildcardsboth are heavily cross-pressured in their core political values, though in distinctly different ways. As a result, members of both groups dont find either the Democratic or Republican Party a comfortable fit with their mix of beliefs. Hard Pressed Skeptics have a Democratic leaning, but their ties to the party are weak; while they voted for Obama over Romney by a wide margin (65% to 25%), they favor Democratic candidates over Republicans by just 14 points (51% to 37%) in the upcoming congressional elections. And despite their 2012 support for Obama, as many now disapprove of his performance as approve. In contrast to other Democratic-leaning groups, Hard-Pressed Skeptics are distrustful of government and express highly negative attitudes towards immigrants. Yet they are nearly as full-throated in their support for government programs to alleviate poverty as Solid Liberals. This support for the social safety net may reflect their own financial precariousnessHard- Pressed Skeptics are the lowest-income group in the typology. Not surprisingly given these competing values, about two-thirds of Hard-Pressed Skeptics (66%) take a nearly even number of liberal and conservative positions across a range of political values; the remaining one-third are equally likely to be mostly conservative (16%) or mostly liberal (17%) in their overall orientation. The Political Wildcards Distribution on a 10-item scale of political values Hard-Pressed Skeptics
Young Outsiders
2014 Political Typology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER How we Define Ideological Consistency We utilize a scale composed of 10 questions to gauge peoples ideological worldview. The questions cover a range of political values including attitudes about size and scope of government, the social safety net, immigration, homosexuality, business, the environment, foreign policy and racial discrimination. The scale is designed to measure how consistently liberal or conservative peoples responses are across these various dimensions of political thinking (what some refer to as ideological constraint. See appendix A of the polarization report for more detail. 19
www.pewresearch.org Liberal Conservative About half (52%)( of Steadfast Conservatives are consistently conservative, compared to just 9% of the public Liberal Conservative Eight-in-ten(79%) Business Conservatives are right-of-center. The other wild card group, Young Outsiders, is similarly ideologically divided: Most (70%) hold an equal number of liberal and conservative values. And, like Hard-Pressed Skeptics, they are generally deeply distrustful of government. Yet despite sharing the ideological center with the Hard-Pressed, these groups share little else in common. These Young Outsiders currently gravitate toward the Republican Party based on their fiscal conservatism and distrust of government. Yet, like the Next Generation Left, Young Outsiders tend to be very liberal on social issues, very secular in their religious orientation and are generally open to immigration. Unlike on the left, where the Solid Liberals are a single, ideologically consolidated bloc, consistently conservative Americans split into two groups in the political typology: Business Conservatives and Steadfast Conservatives. Both groups are overwhelmingly Republican in their political preferences, and are in complete agreement that government should be smaller and play less of a role in the economy. And both groups also express little support for the social safety net, overwhelmingly oppose environmental regulations and take an assertive foreign policy stance. As a result, nearly all (97%) Americans with consistently conservative values are in one of these groups. Yet there is not wholesale agreement on the political right. Steadfast Conservatives hold very conservative social values and express very negative attitudes about immigrants. Business Conservatives generally view immigrants positively and are moderateor even liberalin their attitudes about homosexuality. And while Steadfast Conservatives oppose the government taking an active role in economic regulation, they are also fairly skeptical about the fairness of the free market and the influence large businesses have. By contrast, Business Conservatives hold more conservative views in these realms. A Divided Right Distribution on a 10-item scale of political values Steadfast Conservatives
Business Conservatives
2014 Political Typology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 20
www.pewresearch.org More than eight-in-ten Steadfast Conservatives (84%) and Business Conservatives (86%) identify with or lean to the Republican Party, and 89% of Solid Liberals identify with or lean to the Democratic Party. In their voting behavior, as well as their opinions about the two parties and their leaders, those in these groups are politically locked-in. Other groups are less uniformly Republican or Democratic. While the Faith and Family Left and Next Generation Left are predominantly Democratic, about a quarter of those in each of these groups identify with or lean toward the GOP. Hard-Pressed Skeptics also tilt Democratic, yet 32% are Republican or lean Republican. Young Outsiders are also divided, though with a preference for the GOP: 49% identify with or lean to the Republican Party, while 35% are, or lean, Democratic. Notably, substantial shares of all seven groups including the three groups that are near uniform in their political preferences choose not to identify with a political party. The two youngest groups, the Next Generation Left and Young Outsiders, are the most likely to embrace the independent label. About half of those in both groups call themselves political independents. But more than four-in-ten Business Conservatives (44%) and a third of Steadfast Conservatives (33%), also call themselves political independents, with most of those saying they lean to the Republican Party. And about a third (34%) of Solid Liberals say they are independent, with most of those leaning to the Democratic Party. Party Identification Across the Typology Groups
Rep/ Lean Rep Dem/ Lean Dem No Leaning Repub- lican Demo- crat Indepen- dent Lean Rep Lean Dem % % % % % % % % Total 39 48 13=100 22 31 41 17 17
Steadfast Conservatives 84 7 9=100 56 5 33 28 2 Business Conservatives 86 6 8=100 49 4 44 37 2 Young Outsiders 49 35 16=100 23 21 51 26 15 Hard-Pressed Skeptics 32 53 15=100 17 37 41 15 16 Next Generation Left 25 65 10=100 12 35 49 13 29 Faith and Family Left 26 61 13=100 18 46 30 8 15 Solid Liberals 5 89 5=100 3 61 34 2 28 2014 Political Typology. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 21
www.pewresearch.org 6 27 27 37 53 88 88 44 88 63 61 51 33 6 6 46 Rep candidate Dem candidate 2012 Margin D+11 D+54 D+44 D+40 R+11 R+75 R+82 D+88 2014 Margin D+2 D+36 D+34 D+14 R+20 R+82 R+82 D+82 3 21 26 25 50 84 87 41 91 75 70 65 39 9 5 52 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Obama Romney Both the groups current preferences for the 2014 congressional election and their presidential votes in 2012 closely mirror their partisan makeup. In their preferences for 2014, the vast majority of Solid Liberals (88%) and clear majorities of the Next Generation Left (61%) and the Faith and Family Left (63%) support Democratic candidates. Hard-Pressed Skeptics also favor Democrats, though by a considerably narrower margin (51% support Democrats, 37% Republicans). On the other side of the aisle, overwhelming majorities of Steadfast Conservatives (88%) and Business Conservatives (88%) favor Republican candidates, while the GOP also enjoys a 20-point advantage among Young Outsiders. In large part, preferences in this years election are similar to vote patterns in the 2012 presidential vote. But the Democratic shares of the votes among several groupsparticularly Hard-Pressed Skeptics and the Faith and Family Lefthave declined. In 2012, Obama won Hard-Pressed Skeptics by a 40-point margin; Democratic congressional candidates now lead Republican candidates among this group by a much slimmer 14-point margin. And although the Faith and Voting Preferences of the Typology Groups % who voted/intend to vote for 2012 Presidential Vote 2014 Congressional Preference
2014 Political Typology. PVOTE, QB27, QB27a. Based on registered voters. 2012 vote based on those who recalled their vote. Other candidates not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 22
www.pewresearch.org 35 33 18 24 11 2 18 49 19 36 19 18 1 1 21 10 20 31 35 38 13 19 23 3 12 11 10 22 59 50 23 2 10 1 6 6 24 22 10 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Always Dem Usually Dem Both parties about equally Usually Rep Always Rep Family Left remains more than twice as likely to vote Democratic this fall, the 54-point margin Obama enjoyed among this group has narrowed to 36 points. Looking at voting behavior more broadly, Young Outsiders are particularly divided in their political leanings: 29% say they always or usually vote Democratic, 28% say they always or usually vote Republican, and 38% say they vote about equally for both parties. About a third (35%) of Hard-Pressed Skeptics also split their votes about equally between the two parties, though among the remaining two-thirds, far more say they vote Democratic than Republican (42% vs. 16%). The political loyalty of other left groups is also not universal. Although most of those in the Next Generation Left (54%) say they always or usually vote Democratic, about three-in-ten (31%) say they vote about equally for candidates from both parties, and 12% vote mostly for Republicans. Similarly, 52% of the Faith and Family Left say they always or usually vote Democratic, with another 20% splitting their votes about evenly and a sizeable minority (22%) always or usually voting Republican. Ticket Splitting Common among Groups in the Middle of the Typology In national and statewide elections in recent years, % who say they have voted
2014 Political Typology. QC142. Based on registered voters. Dont know/Never voted/Vote for other parties not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 23
www.pewresearch.org 78 25 44 20 18 11 6 28 2 8 6 10 15 55 53 18 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total
Disagree
Agree No opinion/ Not heard of 54 67 49 70 67 34 41 20 Support for the Tea Party is concentrated about evenly within the two conservative typology groups: 53% of Steadfast Conservatives and 55% of Business Conservatives say they agree with the Tea Party (few disagree, as most others in these groups have no opinion of the movement). Young Outsiders the other Republican leaning group have little affinity for the Tea Party. Two-thirds (67%) have no opinion of the Tea Party, and of those who do, slightly more disagree (18%) than agree (15%) with the movement. Groups with a Democratic leaning express more disagreement than agreement, although to varying degrees. More than three-quarters of Solid Liberals (78%) say they disagree with the Tea Party. And while 49% of the Next Generation Left have no opinion of the Tea Party, nearly as many (44%) say they disagree with it. Few of the Faith and Family Left or Hard-Pressed Skeptics have an opinion about the movement, though the balance of opinion among those in these groups who do rate the Tea Party is also negative. Tea Party Draws Little Support Aside From Steadfast Conservatives, Business Conservatives Do you agree or disagree with the Tea Party movement, or dont you have an opinion either way?
2014 Political Typology. TEAPARTY2. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 24
www.pewresearch.org 84 50 71 49 57 52 33 56 11 45 26 47 38 43 62 39 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Stick to their positions Make compromises Overall, more Americans say they prefer elected officials who make compromises with people they disagree with than those who stick to their positions (56% vs. 39%). Support for officials who compromise is strongest among Solid Liberals (84%) and the Next Generation Left (71%), while smaller majorities of Young Outsiders (57%) and Business Conservatives (52%) also prefer politicians who make compromises. Both the Faith and Family Left and Hard- Pressed Skeptics are more divided on the question. And reflecting their name, Steadfast Conservatives stand out as the only group in which a majority (62%) prefers elected officials who remain steadfast, sticking to their positions rather than compromising.
Business Conservatives Far More Likely Than Steadfast to Favor Compromise % saying they like elected officials who
2014 Political Typology. Q51mm. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 25
www.pewresearch.org 8 36 30 32 39 68 65 37 89 55 63 61 53 30 31 55 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total NET Unfavorable NET Favorable 83 63 62 46 34 7 7 46 15 28 31 47 59 91 90 47 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total NET Unfavorable NET Favorable To a large extent, views of the two parties mirror the underlying partisan composition of the typology groups. But in some cases, ratings of the two parties reveal a more generalized frustration with politics. More than eight-in-ten Solid Liberals (83%) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, and 89% view the GOP negatively. About six-in-ten of the Next Generation Left (62%) and the Faith and Family Left (63%) view the Democratic Party positively, with majorities in both of these groups holding an unfavorable view of the Republican Party. Though a Democratic-leaning group, Hard-Pressed Skeptics are split in their views of the Democratic Party (46% favorable, 47% unfavorable) and have a largely unfavorable view of the GOP (32% favorable, 61% unfavorable). And although they tilt Republican in their preferences, Young Outsiders are the only group with a majority negative view of both the Democratic (59% unfavorable) and Republican (53% unfavorable) parties. About nine-in-ten Steadfast Conservatives (90%) and Business Conservatives (91%) have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party. Yet despite their strong Republican loyalty, their Young Outsiders View Both Parties Unfavorably View of the Democratic Party View of the Republican Party
2014 Political Typology. Q11a-b. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 26
www.pewresearch.org 21 35 49 26 40 79 64 42 Republican Party 86 66 85 53 50 36 21 57 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Democratic Party view of the GOP is muted; about two-thirds in both groups express a favorable view of the Republican Party. Among the public overall, 57% say the Democratic Party cares about the middle class, while only 42% say the same about the GOP. The Democrats advantage on this trait is evident across five of the seven typology groups. Only Steadfast and Business Conservatives give the Republican Party better marks on this measure. Although both Young Outsiders and Hard-Pressed Skeptics are more likely to say Democrats care about the middle class than to say this about Republicans, neither party performs particularly well on this measure among these groups. Half (50%) of Young Outsiders say the Democratic Party cares about the middle class, while 40% say the Republican Party does. Similarly, about half (53%) of Hard-Pressed Skeptics say the Democratic Party cares about the middle class, though here the GOP lags far behind, as only 26% say the same about the Republican Party. Hard-Pressed Skeptics, Young Outsiders Not Impressed with Either Partys Efforts on Behalf of Middle Class % saying each party cares about the middle class
2014 Political Typology. QC48b, QC49b. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 27
www.pewresearch.org 38 44 49 52 68 95 88 59 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total 91 63 69 69 50 18 26 57 To test views of the parties further, the survey offered two criticisms of the Democratic and Republican parties, which majorities agreed with. About six-in-ten Americans (59%) say the Democratic Party too often sees government as the only way to solve problems. Roughly the same share (57%) say the Republican Party is too willing to cut government programs, even when they work. These criticisms of both parties are common in the middle Typology groups. About two- thirds of Young Outsiders (68%) say the Democratic Party is too reliant on government to solve problems, but half (50%) also say that the GOP is too quick to cut working programs. Similarly, while about seven-in-ten (69%) Hard-Pressed Skeptics and those in the Next Generation Left say the Republican Party is too willing to cut programs, about half of those in each of these groups say Democrats too often see government as the solution. Not surprisingly, the critiques of the other side resonate with the overwhelming majority of Steadfast Conservatives, Business Conservatives and Solid Liberals. But about four-in-ten (38%) Solid Liberals also say the Democratic Party too often relies on government solutions, while a quarter of Steadfast Conservatives (26%) say the GOP is too quick to cut effective government programs. Many Say Democrats too Reliant on Government Solutions, Republicans too Quick to Cut Programs % who say
The Democratic Party too often sees government as only way to solve problems The Republican Party is too willing to cut gov't programs, even when they work
2014 Political Typology. QC48c, QC49c. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 28
www.pewresearch.org Very strongly Not strongly Very strongly Not strongly 10 29 26 48 60 96 94 49 84 61 66 44 31 2 5 44 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Not surprisingly, views of Barack Obama are highly polarized. Solid Liberals are his strongest supporters; 84% approve of how Obama is handling his job. Obama also fares well among the Faith and Family Left (61% approve) and the Next Generation Left (66% approve). But nearly all Steadfast (94%) and Business (96%) Conservatives disapprove of Obamas performanceand most of those say they very strongly disapprove. By about two- to-one (60% vs. 31%) Young Outsiders also express more disapproval than approval. Though Obama won Hard-Pressed Skeptics in 2012, they are currently divided in their evaluations of his job performance: 48% disapprove, 44% approve. Hard-Pressed Skeptics Divided in Views of Obamas Performance Disapprove Approve
2014 Political Typology.QC1. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 29
www.pewresearch.org 23 26 38 39 57 88 85 47 65 41 38 26 19 3 2 29 9 16 13 20 22 47 43 22 61 22 27 15 12 9 6 22 10 24 26 32 46 86 85 41 88 70 70 62 51 12 11 54 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Hillary Clinton is viewed positively by all four groups with a Democratic tilt. Nearly nine-in-ten Solid Liberals (88%), seven-in-ten in the Faith and Family Left (70%) and Next Generation Left (70%) view her favorably. And while Hard-Pressed Skeptics are split in their views of Obamas job performance, they hold a favorable impression of Hillary Clinton by roughly two-to-one (62% vs. 32%). While Young Outsiders are divided in their views of Clinton, (51% favorable, 46% unfavorable), more than eight-in-ten Steadfast (85%) and Business (86%) Conservatives view her unfavorably. And most of those opinions are very unfavorable. Nancy Pelosi elicits a similarly strongly negative reaction from the two conservative groups: 85% of Steadfast Conservatives and 88% of Business Conservatives have an unfavorable opinion of the House Minority leaderand nearly all of those opinions are very unfavorable. By two-to-one, Young Outsiders also view Pelosi more negatively than positively (57% unfavorable, 19% favorable). Clinton Viewed Favorably by Many in the Middle; Pelosi and Warren Are Not % who say their view is
Hillary Clinton Nancy Pelosi Elizabeth Warren
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W3): FAVPOL. Those who did not rate not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 6 Very unfavorable Mostly unfavorable Mostly favorable Very favorable 30
www.pewresearch.org Opinions about Pelosi are largely positive among both Solid Liberals (65% favorable, 23% unfavorable), and the Faith and Family Left (41% favorable, 26% unfavorable), but the former Speaker splits the Next Generation Left (38% favorable, 38% unfavorable), and is in negative territory among Hard-Pressed Skeptics (26% favorable, 39% favorable). Elizabeth Warren is lesser known among all typology groups, but is broadly liked by Solid Liberals: 61% view her favorably, including 40% saying their opinion is very favorable. In contrast, Steadfast and Business Conservatives give the Massachusetts senator negative marks (while only around half of those in these groups rate her, those ratings are mostly negative). Other groups are both less likely to rate Warren overall, and those who do are more mixed in their views of her, although those in the Next Generation Left view Warren more positively than negatively by about two-to- one. 31
www.pewresearch.org 71 28 44 21 25 15 11 32 2 19 8 15 19 62 61 23 73 33 41 32 40 33 37 41 17 32 30 29 33 56 44 32 79 37 44 32 32 8 13 36 6 25 20 24 34 79 66 32 72 34 45 26 34 12 15 34 6 22 16 24 29 69 64 29 68 23 35 18 20 9 15 28 7 23 18 15 24 70 58 27 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total 70 42 50 42 39 24 27 42 15 28 23 23 30 63 60 31 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total 6 Very unfavorable Mostly unfavorable Mostly favorable Very favorable There is little difference in how many leading Republicans are viewed by the two core GOP groups: Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives. Large majorities in both of these groups have favorable views of Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan. Though both groups also view Chris Christie more positively than negatively, a third (33%) of Business Leading GOP Figures Viewed Favorably by Conservative Typology Groups; No One Stands Out % who say their view is Jeb Bush Chris Christie Paul Ryan
Marco Rubio Rand Paul Ted Cruz
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W3): FAVPOL. Those who did not rate not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 32
www.pewresearch.org Conservatives and 37% of Steadfast Conservatives have an unfavorable view of the New Jersey Governor. But none of these figures find much support from Young Outsiders, many of whom dont even rate these Republican leaders. Among those who do provide ratings, opinions are divided. And Hard-Pressed Skeptics are also divided over most of these figures. All six of these men elicit unfavorable views from more than two-thirds of Solid Liberals, with many saying their views are very unfavorable. But Ted Cruz stands out as a particular lightning rod for Solid Liberals: 71% view him unfavorably, including 62% who say their view is very unfavorable. 33
www.pewresearch.org 22 40 30 61 60 59 76 49 70 50 65 34 33 33 20 44 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Behind us Ahead of us Section 2: Views of the Nation, the Constitution and Government The typology groups differ markedly in their attitudes about Americas future, its standing in the world and the factors behind the nations success. The public generally is divided about the nations future: 49% think the countrys best years are behind us, while 44% say the best years lie ahead. Pessimism about the countrys future is most prevalent among Steadfast Conservatives fully 76% believe that the countrys best years are behind us, as do 59% of Business Conservatives. However, a negative outlook extends to the middle of the typology 61% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics and 60% of Young Outsiders say the U.S. has already seen its best years. By contrast, Solid Liberals and the Next Generation Left say the best is yet to come for the United States. Wide majorities of both groups (70% and 65%, respectively) say the countrys best years lie ahead. By a narrow margin, the Faith and Family Left also are more likely to say the best years are ahead (50%) than in the past (40%). Optimism about Nations Future Highest among Solid Liberals, Next Gen Left % who say the United States best years are
2014 Political Typology. QB4. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 34
www.pewresearch.org While there are divides in views over whether the countrys best years are in the past or future, large majorities of all groups see the U.S. as either one of the greatest countries in the world or the greatest country in the world. Overall, 58% say the U.S. is one of the greatest countries in the world, along with some others; 28% say the U.S. stands above all other countries. Just 12% say there are other countries that are better than the U.S. Belief that the U.S. stands alone in the world is most prevalent among Steadfast Conservatives, Business Conservatives and the Faith and Family Left. Though they see the countrys best years in the past, Steadfast Conservatives are as likely to say the U.S. stands above all other countries (46%) as say the U.S. is one of the greatest countries in the world, along with some others (46%). Many Business Conservatives also say the U.S. stands alone as the best country (43%), though more (55%) say it is one of the greatest countries in the world, along with some others. Among the Democratically-oriented groups, the Faith and Family Left are the most likely to say the U.S. stands above all other countries: 39% say this, though a greater share (51%) says the U.S. is among the greatest countries. Across all other groups, far more say the U.S. is one of several of the greatest countries in the world, rather than the one country standing above all others. For example, 67% of the Next Generation Left see the U.S. as one of the greatest countries, while 20% say it stands above all others. Most Say U.S. Is Among the Greatest Countries, But Does Not Stand Above All Others % who say
2014 Political Typology. QC56. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 11 39 20 29 16 43 46 28 71 51 67 54 64 55 46 58 16 8 12 15 19 1 7 12 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total The U.S. stands above all other countries The U.S. is one of the greatest countries, along with some others There are other countries that are better than the U.S. 35
www.pewresearch.org 17 39 33 44 45 71 78 44 79 54 63 50 49 25 17 51 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Reliance on principles Ability to change
There are greater divisions of opinion when it comes to the question of what explains the past success of the United States, with differences within and across partisan groupings. Overall, 51% say the country has been successful more because of its ability to change, while 44% say it is more because of its reliance on long-standing principles. Both Steadfast and Business Conservatives see reliance on long-standing principles as the main reason the United States has been successful. Large percentages of both groups (78% and 71%, respectively) take this view. However, the Young Outsiders are more divided: About as many say the country has been successful because of its ability to change (49%) as because of its reliance on principles (45%). Opinions are similar among the Hard- Pressed Skeptics (50% ability to change vs. 44% reliance on principles). Solid Liberals overwhelmingly say the country has been successful because of its ability to change (79%-17%). The Next Generation Left also holds this view by a wide 63%-33% margin. Roughly half of the socially conservative Faith and Family Left (54%) credit the nations ability to change, while 39% attribute the nations success to its reliance on long-standing principles.
Bigger Reason for U.S. Success: Ability to Change or Reliance on Principles? % who say the country been successful more because of
2014 Political Typology. QB26. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 36
www.pewresearch.org 14 39 27 52 47 74 88 46 84 53 68 43 48 24 11 49 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Meant as originally written Means in current times The theme of change versus tradition surfaces in views of a very different question whether the Supreme Court should base its rulings on an understanding of what the Constitution meant as it was originally written or on what the Constitution means today. The two most conservative groups stand out for their strong belief that the court should base its rulings on an understanding of the Constitution as originally written. Fully 88% of Steadfast Conservatives support constitutional originalism, as do 74% of Business Conservatives by far the highest percentages of any of the typology groups. Solid Liberals take the opposite view. More than eight-in-ten (84%) say the Supreme Court should base its understanding of the Constitution on what it means today, not on what it meant when it was originally written. And about two-thirds (68%) of the Next Generation Left also say the courts rulings should be based on what the Constitution means today. On this question, both Hard-Pressed Skeptics and Young Outsiders are divided.
Wide Left-Right Divide Over How Constitution Should be Interpreted % who say the Supreme Court should base its rulings on what the U.S. Constitution
2014 Political Typology. QB55. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 37
www.pewresearch.org 67 60 59 84 84 84 93 75 32 39 40 15 16 16 7 24 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Only some of the time/ Never Always/ Most of the time 11 9 5 24 22 32 43 19 70 59 64 64 66 58 55 62 17 28 29 10 12 8 2 17 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Angry Frustrated Content Pew Research surveys have documented the historic decline in trust in government over recent years, and the Typology survey finds that trust in government remains mired near record lows. Just 24% say they can trust the government in Washington to do what is right just about always or most of the time; far more (75%) say they trust government only some of the time or never. Majorities of all typology groups express low levels of trust in government. Distrust is especially acute among the Republican-oriented groups. For example, 93% of Steadfast Conservatives trust the government only some of the time or never. The Next Generation Left are among the least negative groups, yet more still say they trust the government only sometimes or never (59%) than most of the time or always (40%). Alongside low levels of trust, most Americans (62%) say they feel frustrated with the federal government, while another 19% say they are angry; just 17% say they feel basically content with the government. While all groups are frustrated with government, Steadfast Conservatives are the most likely to say Views of Government: Low Levels of Trust, High Frustration Trust the government in Washington Feeling about the federal government
2014 Political Typology. QB40a-b. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 38
www.pewresearch.org 19 20 28 24 43 65 58 34 77 75 68 72 57 30 37 62 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Not govt's job to protect people from themselves Necessary to have laws to protect people they are angry: 43% say they feel this way toward government. By contrast, just 11% of Solid Liberals, 9% of the Faith and Family Left and 5% of the Next Generation Left are angry with government. Many Business Conservatives (32%) say they are angry with the federal government, though far more describe themselves as frustrated (58%). Similar percentages of Hard-Pressed Skeptics (24%) and Young Outsiders (22%) say they are angry with government. For both groups, this places them somewhat out of step with the groups at the poles of their partisan leanings: Young Outsiders are about half as likely to be angry with government as Steadfast Conservatives; Hard-Pressed Skeptics are about twice as likely to express anger with the federal government as Solid Liberals. Most Americans say that sometimes laws are necessary to protect people from themselves (62%), while 34% say that its not the governments job to protect people from themselves. Most typology groups say it is sometimes necessary to have laws to protect people from themselves, including 57% of Young Outsiders a group that generally holds limited views on what the government can and should be doing. Business Conservatives (65%-30%) and Steadfast Conservatives (58%-37%) are the only two groups where majorities say its not the governments job to protect people from themselves. Conservatives Say Its Not Govts Job to Protect People From Themselves %who say
2014 Political Typology. Q50v. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 39
www.pewresearch.org Yet the public has divided opinions about the governments regulation of business, and large majorities of the typologys middle groups Hard-Pressed Skeptics (66%) and Young Outsiders (61%) say regulation does more harm than good. Anti-regulation views are a defining feature of the two most Republican typology groups. Fully 85% of Steadfast Conservative and 81% of Business Conservatives say that government regulation of business does more harm than good. By contrast, there is strong support for government regulation of business among Solid Liberals (87% say regulation is necessary to protect the public interest), the Next Generation Left (75%) and the Faith and Family Left (67%).
Public Evenly Divided in Views of Government Regulation of Business % who say government regulation of business
2014 Political Typology. Q25b. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 9 26 19 66 61 81 85 47 87 67 75 28 34 14 11 47 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Does more harm than good Necessary to protect public 40
www.pewresearch.org 41
www.pewresearch.org 88 51 60 74 69 31 48 62 9 43 36 21 29 67 47 34 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Economic system unfairly favors powerful Economic system is fair to most people 95 76 82 85 88 35 71 78 4 19 15 12 9 57 22 18 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Too much power is concentrated in hands of few large companies Largest companies do not have too much power Section 3: Fairness of the Economic System, Views of the Poor and the Social Safety Net There is public agreement that the U.S. economic system unfairly favors powerful interests, and even more Americans believe that large corporations in this country are too powerful. But on both issues, Business Conservatives offer strongly dissenting views; they are the only typology group in which a majority sees the economic system as fundamentally fair. Overall, the public has long been split over government assistance to the poor and needy. Yet while attitudes about the social safety net generally divide the right from the left, the Next Generation Left stand out among Democratically-oriented groups for their opposition to increased assistance to the needy if it means adding to the nations debt. Overall, 62% of Americans say this countrys economic system unfairly favors powerful interests, compared with just 34% who think the system is generally fair to most Americans. There is variance in opinions about economic fairness among Democratically-oriented groups. For Business Conservatives Stand Out for Belief in Fairness of Economic System % who say
2014 Political Typology. Q51ll & Q25m. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 42
www.pewresearch.org 56 37 33 54 48 17 41 42 36 47 56 31 42 74 49 45 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Wall St. hurts econ more than it helps Wall St. helps econ more than it hurts instance, while 88% of Solid Liberals say the economic system is unfair, only about half (51%) of the Faith and Family Left agree. Yet Business Conservatives are the only group on the right or left in which most believe the economic system is fair to most people. Fully 67% say the economic system is fair to most Americans, and 47% of Steadfast Conservatives agree. Among the GOP-leaning Young Outsiders, just 29% think the system is fair while more than twice as many (69%) do not. As their name implies, Business Conservatives also have much more positive views of major corporations than do other Americans. Fully 57% think that the largest companies do not have too much power; no more than one-in-four in other typology groups share this view. Even among Steadfast Conservatives, 71% say large corporations are too powerful. However, there is greater agreement among the two conservative groups about whether corporate profits are appropriate: Majorities of both Business Conservatives (86%) and Steadfast Conservatives (62%) say most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit. This view is shared far less widely among other typology groups: Majorities of Solid Liberals (80%), Hard-Pressed Skeptics (79%), and Young Outsiders (66%) say corporations make too much profit. But the Faith and Family Left and Next Generation Left are more divided; a narrow majority of the Faith and Family Left (54%) and half of the Next Generation Left (50%) say corporate profits are excessive. Not only do Business Conservatives have the most positive views of corporations, they also are more likely than other typology groups to say that Wall Street helps more than hurts the U.S. economy. But in this case, they are joined by a 56% majority of the Next Generation Left. Overall, 45% say Wall Street helps the U.S. economy more than it hurts, while about as many (42%) say it hurts the economy more than it helps. Views of Wall Street have improved since 2012, when more saw it as having a net negative than net positive impact (48%-36%). Mixed Views of Wall Street %who say
2014 Political Typology. Q51pp. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 43
www.pewresearch.org 7 33 26 33 86 80 86 48 91 59 68 60 9 13 10 47 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Govt aid to poor does more harm than good Govt aid to poor does more good than harm 12 35 56 27 76 89 85 51 83 58 39 66 18 6 11 43 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Govt can't afford to do more to help needy Govt should do more to help needy Majorities of Business Conservatives (74%) and the Next Generation Left (56%) think that Wall Street does more to help the economy. The most negative views of Wall Streets effect on the economy come from Solid Liberals (56% hurt more than help) and Hard-Pressed Skeptics (54%). The three other groups have more divided views of Wall Streets impact. Views of government aid to the poor are much more polarized along partisan lines than attitudes about the fairness of the economic system. Groups on the right overwhelmingly believe government aid to the poor does more harm than good, while those on the left say it has a positive impact. Fully 86% of Steadfast Conservatives and Young Outsiders, along with 80% of Business Conservatives, say government aid to the poor does more harm than good by making people too dependent on government assistance. Majorities in the three Democratically-oriented groups, as well as the Democratic-leaning Hard-Pressed Skeptics, express the opposite viewthat government aid to the poor does more good than harm because people cant get out of poverty Next Generation Left See Government Aid to Poor as Doing More Good Than Harm, But Worry About Impact on Nations Debt % who say
2014 Political Typology. Q51kk & Q25d. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 44
www.pewresearch.org 86 62 54 71 10 9 7 47 6 29 32 21 81 77 86 44 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Poor have hard lives Poor have it easy 9 32 42 22 56 58 61 39 83 58 47 66 30 26 29 50 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Lack of effort on his or her part Circumstances beyond his or her control until their basic needs are met. However, while most of the Next Generation Left (68%) support government aid to the poor in principle, they balk at the costs to the federal government. Overall, 56% say that the government cant afford to do much more to help the needy, while fewer (39%) say the government should do more to help the needy even if it means going deeper into debt. By contrast, majorities of Solid Liberals (83%), Hard-Pressed Skeptics (66%) and the Faith and Family Left (58%) all say the government should do more to help needy Americans even if it results in more debt. The public is split in their views of whether government aid to the poor is justified: While 44% say the poor have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return, about as many (47%) believe poor people have hard lives because government benefits dont go Wide Differences Between Right and Left Over Why Some People are Poor % who say
Poor people have hard lives because government benefits dont go far enough to help them live decently, or poor people have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything? Which is generally more often to blame if a person is poor?
2014 Political Typology. Q25c & Q53. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 45
www.pewresearch.org far enough to help them live decently. Wide majorities of Steadfast Conservatives (86%) and Business Conservatives (77%) say poor people have it easy; they are joined in this view by 81% of the Republican-leaning Young Outsiders. By contrast, 86% of Solid Liberals think the poor have hard lives and that benefits dont go far enough to help them live decently; 71% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics agree. Smaller majorities of the Faith and Family Left (62%) and the Next Generation Left (54%) also say this. There is a similar pattern in opinions about why a person is poor: Overall, 50% say it is more often because of circumstances beyond an individuals control; 39% think a lack of effort is more to blame. Majorities of Steadfast Conservatives (61%), Business Conservatives (58%) and Young Outsiders (56%) say a lack of effort is more often to blame for why a person is poor. Among Democratically-oriented groups, 86% of Solid Liberals and 62% of the Faith and Family Left say that the poor have hard lives because government benefits dont go far enough to help them live decently; 71% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics also express this view. But the Next Generation Left are more conflicted in their views: About as many say a lack of effort is usually to blame for why a person is poor (42%) as say poverty is the result of circumstances outside of ones control (47%). 46
www.pewresearch.org 67 16 21 65 22 10 17 32 29 82 77 32 76 88 81 65 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Hard work is no guarantee of success for most Most can get ahead if willing to work hard Americans continue to offer broad support for the idea that hard work leads to success in this country. Nearly two-thirds of the public (65%) say most people who want to get ahead can make it if theyre willing to work hard, while just 32% say hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people. However, majorities of two typology groups Hard-Pressed Skeptics and Solid Liberals reject the American ideal that hard work is all it takes to succeed. Hard-Pressed Skeptics face the most difficult financial circumstances of all the typology groups and 65% say hard work is no guarantee of success, compared with just 32% who say most people can get ahead if theyre willing to work hard. Solid Liberals are a relatively affluent group, but by a 67%-29% margin, they also do not believe that hard work can guarantee success for most people. Across the five other typology groups, at least three-quarters say most people who want to get ahead can make it if theyre willing to work hard. The Democratically-oriented Faith and Family Left and Next Generation Left are about as likely to hold this view as the three Republican- oriented groups. Solid Liberals, Hard-Pressed Skeptics Doubt that Hard Work Leads to Success % who say
2014 Political Typology. Q25k. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 47
www.pewresearch.org 3 22 11 79 43 21 73 35 93 70 83 14 48 64 17 57 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Burden our country, taking jobs, housing, health care Strengthen our country through hard work & talents 5 25 9 72 39 20 81 35 92 66 88 23 55 72 13 59 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Threatens traditional American customs/values Strengthens American society Section 4: Views on Immigration and Race On both the left and the right, there are divides about how immigrants affect American society. On balance, public views of immigrants are more positive than negative. By a margin of 57% to 35%, more say immigrants today strengthen rather than burden the country; by a similar 59% to 35% margin, most believe that the growing number of newcomers strengthens society rather than threatens traditions. On both questions, the three groups on the left are in general agreement that immigrants strengthen the country. But Hard-Pressed Skeptics, a Democratic-leaning group, take more conservative views on both measures. About eight-in-ten (79%) say immigrants are a burden because they take jobs, housing and health care, while only 14% believe immigrants strengthen the U.S. because of their hard work and talents. Most Hard-Pressed Skeptics (72%) also say newcomers threaten traditional American customs and values. Steadfast Conservatives, Hard-Pressed Skeptics View Immigrants Negatively % who say
Immigrants today Growing number of newcomers from other countries...
2014 Political Typology. Q25g & Q50dd. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 48
www.pewresearch.org 3 13 11 37 28 27 49 23 96 85 88 61 69 72 50 76 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Not be eligible for citizenship Be eligible if requirements met The solidly Republican Steadfast Conservatives view immigrants as a burden (73%) and as a threat to traditional values (81%). However, this contrasts with Business Conservatives, who mostly believe that immigrants strengthen the country (64% vs. 21%) and American society (72% vs. 20%). On immigration, Young Outsiders are the most conflicted. About as many believe immigrants strengthen (48%) as burden (43%) the country. On the issue of traditional customs and values, a slim majority says newcomers strengthen society (55%), while 39% see them as a threat to traditional values. When it comes to immigration policy, six of the seven groups favor a pathway to citizenship for immigrants here illegally as long as certain requirements are met. By a roughly three-to-one margin (76%- 23%), the public thinks unauthorized immigrants should be eligible for citizenship. More than eight-in-ten Solid Liberals (96%), Next Generation Left (88%) and Faith and Family Left (85%) say immigrants living in the country illegally should be eligible for citizenship, if they meet certain requirements. On the right, Business Conservatives (72%) and Young Outsiders (69%) also are supportive of a pathway to citizenship. And Hard-Pressed Skeptics who hold negative views of immigrants generally support a pathway to citizenship by a 61% to 37% margin. Steadfast Conservatives are the only group where most do not back a way for immigrants currently in the country to stay here legally. As many say immigrants now living in the U.S. should not be eligible for citizenship (49%) as say they should be eligible for citizenship, as long as certain requirements are met (50%). Steadfast Conservatives Only Typology Group to Not Back Path to Citizenship % who say immigrants who are living in U.S. illegally should
2014 Political Typology. Q122. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 49
www.pewresearch.org 91 72 28 56 26 12 15 46 6 23 67 39 70 83 81 49 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total U.S. needs to continue making changes to give blacks equal rights U.S. has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights When it comes to racial progress in the U.S., the public is evenly divided about whether the country has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites. About half (49%) say the U.S. has made the necessary changes, while 46% believe the country needs to continue making changes. About eight-in-ten Business (83%) and Steadfast Conservatives (81%) agree that the U.S. has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites. At the other end of the ideological spectrum, 91% of Solid Liberals and 72% of the Faith and Family Left take the opposite view and say the U.S. needs to continue making changes to give black equal rights with whites. Notably, a 67% majority of the Next Generation Left the youngest Democratic- leaning group says the necessary changes to give blacks equal rights with whites have been made, while just 28% say more needs to be done. While the public is divided over whether additional societal changes are needed to further racial equality, most do not believe that discrimination is the main reason why many blacks cant get ahead today. By more than two-to-one (63%-27%), the public says blacks who cant get ahead are mostly responsible for their own condition. This view is widely held across the three Republican-oriented groups, with at least eight-in-ten taking this position. Smaller majorities of the Democratic-leaning Next Generation Left (68%) and Hard-Pressed Skeptics (63%) say that blacks who cant get ahead are mostly responsible for their own condition. On Racial Progress, Next Gen Left Is Far Apart from Other Democratic Groups % who say
2014 Political Typology. Q50hh. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 50
www.pewresearch.org 80 31 19 28 9 7 5 27 10 57 68 63 84 82 89 63 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Racial discrimination is main reason why many blacks can't get ahead Blacks who can't get ahead are mostly responsible for own condition A 57% majority of the Faith and Family Left (the most racially diverse group, 30% of whom are black) also say that blacks who cant get ahead are mostly responsible for their own condition. But Solid Liberals see the issue differently. Among this group, eight-in-ten (80%) say racial discrimination is the main reason why many blacks cant get ahead, making them at least 49 points more likely to hold this view than any other group.
Solid Liberals Say Discrimination Main Reason Many Blacks Cant Get Ahead % who say
2014 Political Typology. Q25f. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 51
www.pewresearch.org 10 16 24 21 33 60 60 30 87 74 71 70 62 30 31 63 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Bad thing Good thing The Democratically-oriented groups are largely in agreement, however, when it comes to the practice of affirmative action in college admissions. Majorities say its a good thing to have affirmative action programs designed to increase number of black and minority students on college campuses. A vast majority of Solid Liberals believe in the merits of college affirmative action (87%), as do at least seven-in-ten of those in the three Democratic-leaning groups. The Young Outsiders also are mostly supportive of campus affirmative action: 62% say its a good thing and just 33% say its a bad thing. Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives, meanwhile, think these programs are a bad thing by a two-to-one margin (60%-31% and 60%-30%, respectively).
Broad Support for Affirmative Action Programs % who say affirmative action programs to increase black and minority students on college campuses are a
2014 Political Typology. QC127. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 52
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www.pewresearch.org Section 5: Views on Religion, the Bible, Evolution and Social Issues There are deep divisions in the political typology over religious beliefs, views of the Bible and social issues such as homosexuality and abortion. And while the right and left differ over these issues, in many cases they also divide both parties coalitions. On fundamental views related to belief in God, 53% of the public says it is not necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values, while 45% believes it is necessary. While overall opinion is fairly evenly split, opinion among the typology groups is not: Large majorities of all groups are on one side or the other of this question. About nine-in-ten of the Next Generation Left (91%) and Solid Liberals (89%) say that belief in God is not necessary to be moral and have good values. But among the Faith and Family Left a group that shares much in common politically with the other Democratically- oriented groups 91% take the opposite view and say it is necessary to believe in God to be moral and have good values. Most Hard-Pressed Skeptics (66%) also say belief in God is needed to be a moral person. There is a similar dynamic on the right. While nearly seven-in-ten Steadfast Conservatives (69%) say it is necessary to believe in God to be a moral person, about equally large percentages of Young Outsiders (70%) and Business Conservatives (66%) say this is not necessary. Both Left and Right Are Divided over Link between Belief in God and Morality % who say it is
2014 Political Typology. Q50aa. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 89 7 91 31 70 66 29 53 11 91 7 66 28 31 69 45 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Not necessary to believe in God to be moral Necessary to believe in God to be moral 54
www.pewresearch.org About two-thirds (65%) of Americans say that the Bible and other works of Scripture are the word of God. Those who say this are about equally likely to say these religious texts should be taken literally, word for word (33%) as to say that not everything in these holy texts should be taken literally (30%). The view that the religious texts are the word of God is held by broad majorities of Steadfast Conservatives (88%), the Faith and Family Left (87%), Hard-Pressed Skeptics (78%) and Business Conservatives (74%). Although many Business Conservatives view the Scripture as the word of God, just 23% say the text is meant to be taken literally, word for word. By contrast, 57% of Steadfast Conservatives and 54% of the Faith and Family Left, along with 47% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics, say the texts should be taken literally. About half of the Next Generation Left (49%) and 55% of Young Outsiders say Scriptures are the word of God. And within these groups few say the Scripture is meant to be taken literallyjust 21% of Young Outsiders and 13% of the Next Generation Left say this. Just 30% of Solid Liberals say the Bible or other holy texts are the word of God; fully 63% of Solid Liberals say that the Bible or other holy book is a book written by men and is not the word of God. Majorities of Steadfast Conservatives and Faith and Family Left Say Bible Should Be Taken Literally Bible/Holy Scripture is ------------------The word of God------------------ A book written by men and is NOT the word of God NET Should be taken literally, word for word Should not be taken literally % % % % Total 65 33 30 30
Steadfast Conservs 88 57 26 8 Business Conservs 74 23 46 21 Young Outsiders 55 21 33 40 Hard-Pressed Skeptics 78 47 28 18 Next Generation Left 49 13 35 44 Faith and Family Left 87 54 30 10 Solid Liberals 30 10 20 63 2014 Political Typology. QB139/QB139a. Notes: Dont know responses not shown. The wording of these questions varies depending on the religious affiliation of the respondent. Christians and the unaffiliated are asked about the Bible; Jews are asked about the Torah; Muslims are asked about the Koran; and Buddhists, Hindus and those of other faiths are asked about the Holy Scripture. Subgroups may not add to NETs because of rounding and omission of dont know responses. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 55
www.pewresearch.org About six-in-ten Americans (61%) say humans and other living things have evolved over time, while 34% say humans and others have existed in their present form since the beginning of time. These views have changed little in recent years. (For a detailed analysis of opinion about evolution among religious groups, see Publics Views on Evolution, Dec. 30, 2013.) Solid Liberals (86%) and the Next Generation Left (83%) are the most likely to say humans have evolved over time. Majorities of Young Outsiders (68%) and Business Conservatives (57%) also say this. Hard-Pressed Skeptics (50% evolved vs. 46% have existed in present form) and the Faith and Family Left (44%-49%) are both divided on the question. Among Steadfast Conservatives, more say humans and other living things have existed in their present form since the beginning of time (53%) than say they have evolved (39%). Among those who say evolution has occurred, slightly more say that this is the result of natural processes such as natural selection (34% of the public) than say a supreme being guided the process (23%). Majorities of Solid Liberals (62%) and the Next Generation Left (55%), along with 41% of Young Outsiders, say humans evolved as a result of natural processes. Among all other typology groups, far fewer say humans evolved as a result of natural processes. Majorities of Solid Liberals, Next Generation Left Say Humans Have Evolved Through Natural Selection Humans and other living things have ------------------Evolved over time----------------- Existed in their present form since the beginning of time NET Due to natural processes Guided by a supreme being % % % % Total 61 34 23 34
Steadfast Conservs 39 14 21 53 Business Conservs 57 26 27 36 Young Outsiders 68 41 24 29 Hard-Pressed Skeptics 50 21 24 46 Next Generation Left 83 55 23 16 Faith and Family Left 44 16 23 49 Solid Liberals 86 62 19 13 2014 Political Typology. QC135/QC135a. Dont know responses not shown. Subgroups may not add to NETs because of rounding and omission of dont know responses. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 56
www.pewresearch.org 7 55 16 49 24 49 84 39 89 37 78 42 68 41 12 54 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Favor Oppose 4 48 8 43 15 31 74 31 93 43 88 49 78 58 18 62 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Accepted Discouraged By a two-to-one margin, the public says homosexuality should be accepted by society (62%) rather than discouraged (31%), but there are deep divisions on this question across typology groups. Fissures emerge on both sides of the partisan spectrum. For instance, about three-quarters of Steadfast Conservatives (74%) believe homosexuality should be discouraged, but a 58% majority of Business Conservatives think homosexuality should be accepted. And Young Outsiders, by a 78%- 15% margin, also say homosexuality should be accepted rather than discouraged by society. On the left, overwhelming majorities of both Solid Liberals (93%) and the Next Generation Left (88%) say homosexuality should be accepted. However, just 43% of the Faith and Family Left and 49% of the Democratic-leaning Hard-Pressed Skeptics agree. Views about homosexuality generally are closely connected to attitudes on same-sex marriage. Overall, a 54% majority favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally; about four-in-ten (39%) oppose same-sex marriage. Business Conservatives Favor Societal Acceptance of Homosexuality % who say Homosexuality should be. View of gay marriage
2014 Political Typology. Q50u & QB108. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 57
www.pewresearch.org 9 54 24 48 37 59 70 43 87 40 71 44 58 33 24 51 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Illegal in all/ most cases Legal in all/ most cases Roughly nine-in-ten Solid Liberals (89%) favor same-sex marriage, as do 78% of the Next Generation Left. The Faith and Family Left and Hard-Pressed Skeptics take a more conservative stance: 55% of the Faith and Family Left and 49% of the Hard-Pressed Skeptics oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. As in views on homosexuality, Young Outsiders hold more liberal views on same-sex marriage than the two conservative groups. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%) Young Outsiders favor gay marriage; just 24% are opposed. While most Business Conservatives think homosexuality should be accepted (58%), only 41% favor same-sex marriage. Among Steadfast Conservatives, there is overwhelming opposition to same-sex marriage: 84% are opposed, while only 12% are in favor. A similar pattern of opinions is seen on the issue of abortion. Overall, about half of the public (51%) says abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 43% think it should be illegal in all or most cases. On the left, majorities of Solid Liberals (87%) and the Next Generation Left (71%) support legal abortion. The Democratic-leaning Hard- Pressed Skeptics are roughly divided (48% illegal vs. 44% legal). Among the Faith and Family Left, more say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases (54%) than say it should be legal all or most cases (40%).
On the other end of the ideological spectrum, 70% of Steadfast Conservatives think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases making them the group most likely to hold this view by a wide margin. A majority of Business Conservatives also are against legal abortion (59%). Abortion is another question on which the Republican-leaning Young Outsiders hold more socially liberal views than their more solidly-Republican counterparts: 58% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 37% believe it should be illegal in all or most cases. Views on Abortion % who say abortion should be
2014 Political Typology. Q124. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 58
www.pewresearch.org 77 30 72 43 65 28 16 50 18 64 24 51 30 66 80 46 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Just as well off if people have priorities other than marriage & children Better off if people prioritize marriage & having children When it comes to whether people should prioritize marriage and having children, the public is about evenly divided: 46% say society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority, while 50% believe society is just as well off if people have priorities other than family and marriage. Steadfast Conservatives are the most likely to think marriage and having children should be prioritized (80% say this), while two-thirds of Business Conservatives (66%) agree. They are joined in this view by 64% of the Democratic-leaning and highly religious Faith and Family Left. By contrast, large majorities of the three youngest typology groupsSolid Liberals (77%), the Next Generation Left (72%) and the Republican-leaning Young Outsiders (65%) say society is just as well off without people prioritizing marriage and having children. Faith and Family Left Differ From Other Dem Groups in Prioritizing Marriage % who say that society is
2014 Political Typology. Q25h. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 59
www.pewresearch.org 13 36 24 44 36 56 72 38 78 46 65 41 52 35 20 50 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total More likely than others to encourage violence Not more likely to encourage violence Roughly four-in-ten Americans (38%) say the Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence among its believers, while half (50%) say it does not encourage violence more than other religions.
More than three-quarters of Solid Liberals (78%), along with 65% of the Next Generation Left, reject the idea that Islam is more violent than other religions. By contrast, about seven- in-ten (72%) Steadfast Conservatives say Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence among its believers.
Opinion is less one-sided among other typology groups. Although a majority of Business Conservatives (56%) say Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence, 35% say it is not. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are divided (44% say Islam does encourage violence more, 41% say it does not). And while more among both the Young Outsiders and the Faith and Family Left say Islam is no more likely to encourage violence than other religions, 36% in both of these groups say it is. Views of Islam and Violence % who say Islamic religion is
2014 Political Typology. QB54 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 60
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www.pewresearch.org 38 54 41 87 85 28 71 60 55 39 54 10 12 67 24 35 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Focus more at home, less on overseas Best for country to be active in world affairs Section 6: Foreign Affairs, Terrorism and Privacy The Pew Research Centers political typology finds evidence of the publics continued wariness about U.S. global involvement. In the poll, conducted January through March of this year, 60% say the U.S. should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home, while just 35% say its best for the future of the country to be active in world affairs. This is little changed from the previous political typology study in 2011, when 58% wanted the U.S. to pay less attention to overseas problems. But a decade ago, fewer (49%) wanted the U.S. to focus less on international problems. (For more on public attitudes toward Americas global role, see Public Sees U.S. Power Declining as Support for Global Engagement Slips, Dec. 3, 2013.) U.S. global involvement divides both the right and left, though to different degrees. Business Conservatives express strong support for an active U.S. global role, with 67% saying it is best for the country to be active in world affairs. Steadfast Conservatives take the opposite view and prioritize focusing on problems at home by a 71% to 24% margin. The two middle groups of the typology Young Outsiders and Hard-Pressed Skeptics overwhelmingly want the U.S. to focus more on problems at home (85% of Young Outsiders, 87% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics). On the left, narrow majorities of Solid Liberals (55%) and the Next Generation Left (54%) say it is best for the country to be active in world affairs. The Faith and Family Left disagree, with 54% saying it would be better to concentrate on problems at home.
Conservatives Deeply Divided Over Active U.S. Role in World Affairs % who say
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www.pewresearch.org 37 22 27 57 59 20 55 40 54 71 67 38 35 74 39 53 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total U.S. involvement makes world problems worse Problems in world would be worse w/o U.S. Despite the publics reticence about global involvement, 53% say that problems in the world would be even worse without U.S. involvement; 40% say that U.S. efforts to solve world problems usually end up making things worse. However, majorities in three typology groups Young Outsiders (59%), Hard-Pressed Skeptics (57%) and Steadfast Conservatives (55%) say U.S. global efforts actually make world problems worse. The other groups disagree: Business Conservatives express the strongest support for U.S. efforts to solve problems around the world 74% say they would be worse without U.S. intervention. Large majorities of the Faith and Family Left (71%) and Next Generation Left (67%) share this view. But fewer Solid Liberals (54%) think that global problems would be worse without U.S. involvement; 37% say U.S. actions to alleviate world problems make things worse. . Majorities in Three Groups Say U.S. Global Efforts Make Problems Worse % who say
2014 Political Typology. Q25j. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 63
www.pewresearch.org 5 28 17 28 20 67 71 30 91 62 76 64 73 22 22 62 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Military strength Good diplomacy
Most Americans see good diplomacy (62%) rather than military strength (30%) as the best way to ensure peace. This view is held by most typology groups, with the exception of Steadfast and Business Conservatives, who hold strong pro-military views. About seven-in-ten Steadfast Conservatives (71%) and Business Conservatives (67%) believe the best way to ensure peace is through military strength, rather than good diplomacy. Among the other typology groups, clear majorities say good diplomacy is the best way to achieve peace. Among Solid Liberals, an overwhelming 91% see good diplomacy as the best way to ensure peace; just 5% think military strength is the best way to ensure peace. What Is the Best Way to Ensure Peace? % who say best way to ensure peace is
2014 Political Typology. Q25i. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 64
www.pewresearch.org 8 53 23 31 21 68 72 37 88 38 71 62 75 22 22 57 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Overwhelming force best way to defeat terrorism Too much force creates hatred and more terror There are similar differences in opinions about the use of force to defeat terrorism around the world. Among the public generally, just 37% say using overwhelming military force is the best way to defeat terrorism, while a majority (57%) says relying too much on military force creates hatred that leads to more terrorism. By greater than three-to one, both groups of conservatives support the use of overwhelming force to defeat terrorism around the world. The other groups in the typology take the opposite view, with one notable exception. About half (53%) of the Faith and Family Left say using overwhelming force is the best way to defeat terrorism. Fewer (38%) think that the use of force creates hatred that leads to more terrorism.
Democratic Groups Differ Over Use of Overwhelming Force against Terrorism
2014 Political Typology. Q50bb. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 65
www.pewresearch.org 72 66 66 83 80 69 80 74 24 28 30 14 18 27 18 22 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Should not have to give up privacy for safety Give up privacy for safety from terrorism There is broad agreement that Americans should not have to sacrifice civil liberties to be safe from terrorism. This is a view shared across all typology groups. Overall, 74% say Americans shouldnt have to give up privacy and freedom in order to be safe from terrorism, while just 23% say Americans need to be willing to give up privacy and freedom in order to be safe from terrorism. Opinion is more divided on the specific matter of the NSAs data collection program. A majority of Americans (54%) disapprove of the governments collection of telephone and internet data as part of anti-terrorism efforts; 42% approve of the program.
Public Rejects Need to Give up Privacy in Order to Be Safe From Terrorism % who say
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www.pewresearch.org 58 39 44 56 57 61 69 54 38 53 53 39 39 36 28 42 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Disapprove Approve This is a rare issue on which the right and left agree: 69% of Steadfast Conservatives oppose the governments data collection program, as do 61% of Business Conservatives and 58% of Solid Liberals. The other Democratically-oriented groups support the data collection program, though by fairly modest margins. About half of the Faith and Family Left and Next Generation Left (53% each) approve of the program.
Opposition to NSA Surveillance Unites Conservatives, Solid Liberals Governments collection of phone and internet data
2014 Political Typology. Q126. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 67
www.pewresearch.org 27 21 21 44 33 24 51 30 62 66 73 46 58 68 39 59 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Bad thing for U.S. Good thing for U.S.
By about two-to-one, more say free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing (59%) than a bad thing (30%) for the U.S. Views of free trade have improved since the spring of 2011, when the public was more evenly divided (48% good thing vs. 41% bad thing). Free trade is supported by most typology groups, including 73% of the Next Generation Left and 68% of Business Conservatives. Steadfast Conservatives are the only group where more say free trade agreements have been a bad thing (51%) rather than a good thing (39%) for the U.S. Hard-Pressed Skeptics also express doubts about free trade: About as many see trade agreements as a bad thing (44%) as a good thing (46%) for the U.S.
Free Trade Agreements Draw Majority Support from Most Typology Groups % who say free trade agreements are a
2014 Political Typology. QC115. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 68
www.pewresearch.org 33 36 31 41 45 51 66 41 58 57 63 52 49 41 28 51 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Getting tougher with China on econ issues Stronger econ relationship with China When it comes to economic relations with China, more Americans prioritize building a stronger relationship with China on economic issues (51%) over getting tougher with China on economic policy (41%). Steadfast Conservatives (66%) are most likely to support a tougher stance against China. Among GOP-leaning groups, fewer Business Conservatives and Young Outsiders support a tougher approach to China. Majorities of Democratically-oriented typology groups prioritize building a stronger economic relationship with China. The strength of this view varies somewhat across groups, with the Next Generation Left being the most likely to support building a stronger relationship with China on economic issues (63%), compared with 52% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics.
Steadfast Conservatives Most Likely to Favor Tougher Stance Against China Which is more important
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www.pewresearch.org DK Just not happening Don't know enough yet Human activity Natural patterns DK 7 14 14 16 24 33 25 17 1 10 6 17 9 36 49 17 25 33 34 71 75 35 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total 20 7 78 40 53 37 37 7 9 40 9 26 20 23 22 18 12 18 91 70 78 63 61 26 21 61 Section 7: Global Warming, Environment and Energy Opinions about the environment and energy sharply divide the typology groups, with the two predominantly Republican groups Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives standing out for their skepticism of global warming and relatively low support for environmental protection. The other typology groups generally express pro-environmental views, and majorities in these groups say the average temperature on Earth has increased over the past few decades. However, most typology groups also favor building the Keystone XL pipeline, with the notable exception of Solid Liberals. Overall, 61% of the public say there is solid evidence that the average temperature on Earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, while 35% say there is not solid evidence that the Earth is warming. Steadfast and Business Conservatives Say No Solid Evidence of Global Warming % who say No solid evidence of warming, because g Yes warming, caused by
2014 Political Typology. QC57/QC58a-b. Subgroups may not add to NETs because of rounding. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 70
www.pewresearch.org 2 14 7 22 13 70 75 25 96 82 90 75 83 22 21 71 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Country has gone too far protecting enviro Do whatever it takes to protect enviro Among those who say the Earth is warming, most say it is caused by human activity (40% of the public), while fewer say it is because of natural patterns in the Earths environment (18%). Those who do not believe there is solid evidence the Earth is warming are divided, with as many saying they just dont know enough yet (17% of the public) as its just not happening (also 17%). Wide majorities of Steadfast Conservatives (75%) and Business Conservatives (71%) say there is not solid evidence the Earth is warming the only two typology groups with a majority who hold this view. Nearly half of Steadfast Conservatives (49%) say warming is not happening at all, while 25% say not enough is yet known. Business Conservatives are divided, with about as many saying it is not happening (36%) as say that not enough is yet known (33%). Majorities of Young Outsiders (61%) and Hard-Pressed Skeptics (63%) say there is solid evidence the Earth is warming. However, just 37% of each group says that the Earth is getting warmer as a result of human activity. Broad majorities of the Next Generation Left (78%) and Faith and Family Left (70%) say that the average temperature on Earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades. The Next Generation Left, however, are somewhat more likely than the Faith and Family Left to say warming is the result of human activity (53% vs. 40%). An overwhelming majority (91%) of Solid Liberals say the Earth is warming, and fully 78% say it is because of human activity by far the highest percentage among typology groups. Alongside doubts about global warming, 75% of Steadfast Conservatives and 70% of Business Conservatives say the country has gone too far in its efforts to protect the environment. Less than a quarter of each group say the country should do whatever it takes to protect the environment. Stark Divide Between Conservatives and Other Groups in Views of Environment % who say
2014 Political Typology. Q50q. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 71
www.pewresearch.org 5 28 15 47 29 84 85 39 93 65 81 47 68 12 11 56 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Stricter enviro laws cost too many jobs Stricter enviro laws are worth the cost There is a stark divide between these two groups and the other typology groups: Clear majorities of the five other groups including 96% of Solid Liberals and 83% of Republican-leaning Young Outsiders say that the country should do whatever it takes to protect the environment. Environmental protection draws more support in principle than when the issue of potential costs is raised. Among the public, 71% say the country should do whatever it takes to protect the environment. But a smaller majority (56%) says stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost. Nearly four-in-ten (39%) say tougher environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy. Among Hard-Pressed Skeptics, the most financially-strapped typology group, 75% favor the country doing whatever is necessary to protect the environment. But as many say stricter environmental laws hurt the economy as say they are worth the cost (47%). A similar pattern is evident, to a lesser extent, among the Faith and Family Left and the Young Outsiders; about two-thirds in each of these groups say stricter environmental regulations are worth the cost, though larger majorities (around eight-in-ten) say the country should do whatever is necessary to protect the environment. By comparison, Solid Liberals and the Next Generation Left are broadly supportive of environmental laws and regulations; most Solid Liberals (93%) and those in the Next Generation Left (81%) say stricter environmental laws are worth the economic costs. And overwhelming majorities of both Steadfast (85%) and Business Conservatives (84%) say that stricter environmental regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy. Hard-Pressed Skeptics Split Over Costs of Environmental Protection % who say
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www.pewresearch.org 3 29 11 27 21 64 66 28 95 64 83 68 71 22 26 65 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Expand oil, coal and natural gas Develop wind, solar, hydrogen alternatives
When it comes to policies to address the countrys energy supply, 65% say the more important priority should be developing alternative sources such as wind, solar and hydrogen technology; fewer than half as many (28%) say the priority should be on expanding exploration and production of oil, coal and natural gas. Here again, the two most conservative typology groups are an exception. About two- thirds of Steadfast Conservatives (66%) and Business Conservatives (64%) say it is more important for the country to focus on expanded production of oil, coal and natural gas than on developing alternatives such as wind, solar and hydrogen technology. Majorities of all other groups prioritize the development of alternative energy sources over expanding exploration of fossil fuels. Solid Liberals (95%) and the Next Generation Left (83%) are the two groups most likely to back development of alternative sources of energy. They are joined in this view by 71% of Young Outsiders, 68% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics and 64% of the Faith and Family Left.
Alternative Energy Widely Supported, Except by Conservative Groups % who say
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www.pewresearch.org 57 24 28 29 29 2 8 27 30 60 62 60 59 94 87 61 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Oppose Favor While most groups prioritize developing alternative sources of energy over the expanded production of oil, coal and natural gas, the Keystone XL pipeline is broadly supported. Six of the seven typology groups support building the Keystone XL pipeline, including the Next Generation Left, which has pro-environmental views on most measures. Solid Liberals are the only group in which a majority opposes the pipeline, which would transport oil from Canadas oil sands to refineries in Texas. By nearly two-to-one (57%-30%), Solid Liberals oppose construction of the pipeline. Business Conservatives are nearly unanimous in their support for building the Keystone XL pipeline (94%-2%); and almost nine-in-ten Steadfast Conservatives (87%) also back construction. Somewhat smaller majorities of Young Outsiders (59%), Hard-Pressed Skeptics (60%), the Faith and Family Left (60%) and the Next Generation Left (62%) support building the Keystone pipeline. Solid Liberals Only Group to Oppose Building Keystone XL Pipeline
2014 Political Typology. QC128. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 74
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www.pewresearch.org 10 36 30 53 71 97 94 53 86 54 65 40 25 2 4 41 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Disapprove Approve Section 8: Health Care, Marijuana, Common Core, Other Domestic Issues The Affordable Care Act has been one of the most divisive issues of Barack Obamas presidency. The new typology finds nearly universal opposition to the law on the right. By contrast, support for the law on the left is not nearly as widespread or intense. Overall, more disapprove (53%) than approve (41%) of the health care law. Opinion about the legislation is little changed since last fall. Overwhelming percentages of Business Conservatives (97%) and Steadfast Conservatives (94%) oppose the law, with about nine-in-ten in each group expressing very strong disapproval (88% of Business Conservatives, 90% of Steadfast Conservatives). Most Young Outsiders (71%) disapprove of the law, 53% very strongly. And even among the Democratic-leaning Hard-Pressed Skeptics, there is more opposition (53%) than support (40%). While 86% of Solid Liberals say they approve of the health care law, other Democratic groups are less enthusiastic. The Next Generation Left approves of the law 65% to 30%; a smaller majority of the Faith and Family Left (54%) back the law. Among the three groups, Solid Liberals are the only one in which a majority (64%) very strongly approves of the law. Staunch Opposition to ACA on the Right, Hard-Pressed Skeptics also Disapprove
2014 Political Typology. QC116. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 76
www.pewresearch.org 33 28 34 20 27 49 31 31 65 69 64 79 72 46 64 67 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Some future reductions need to be considered Benefits should not be reduced in any way While the public is concerned over the budget deficit and government spending, there is broad opposition across most political typology groups to reductions in Social Security benefits. When asked to think about the programs long term future, two-thirds (67%) of the public say that Social Security benefits should not be reduced in any way, while just 31% are willing to say that some reductions in benefits for future retirees need to be considered. Business Conservatives are the only group in which a majority does not oppose the consideration of cuts in Social Security benefits. However, nearly as many Business Conservatives say benefits cuts should not be considered (46%) as say they should be on the table (49%). Among all other groups, at least six-in-ten say reductions in Social Security benefits should not be considered. Broad Opposition to Even Considering Social Security Benefits Reductions % who say that, when it comes to the long term future of Social Security
2014 Political Typology. Q125. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 77
www.pewresearch.org 16 54 32 43 31 59 69 42 81 43 66 53 67 38 28 54 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Marijuana should not be legal Marijuana should be legal In recent years, Pew Research surveys have documented the rise in support for legal marijuana, as it has become a majority viewpoint among the public. In the 2014 Typology survey, 54% say they think marijuana should be made legal, while 42% do not think it should be legal. Support for legal marijuana is highest among Solid Liberals: about eight-in-ten (81%) say they think marijuana should be made legal; just 16% say it should not be legal. Slimmer majorities of the Next Generation Left (66%) and the Democratic-leaning Hard-Pressed Skeptics (53%) also support legal marijuana. However, the Faith and Family Left defined by their liberal positions on the role and size of government and more conservative views of social issues oppose legalizing marijuana by a 54% to 43% margin. On the right, views of legal marijuana split the solidly Republican Steadfast and Business Conservatives from the Republican-leaning Young Outsiders. Majorities of Steadfast Conservatives (69%) and Business Conservatives (59%) say marijuana should not be made legal. However, Young Outsiders take the opposite view: 67% say marijuana should be legal and 31% say it should not be made legal.
Faith and Family Left Only Democratic Group to Oppose Legalizing Marijuana % who say
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www.pewresearch.org When it comes to the debate over gun policy, the public is evenly split: 49% say it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns, while 48% say it is more important to control gun ownership. Overall opinion on gun control has been little changed for more than a year. While divided on whether the gun policy priority should be protecting gun rights or controlling gun ownership, most Americans on either side of this issue say that people should be able to own guns, though with some limits or restrictions on ownership. Of the 49% who prioritize gun rights, most say there should be some restrictions on ownership (38% of the public). Similarly, a majority of those who prioritize gun control say that most Americans should be able to own guns with certain limits in place (35% of the public). Relatively few Americans say that there should be no restrictions on gun ownership (11%), or that gun ownership should be limited to only law enforcement and security personnel (12%). On gun policy, the difference in views between Solid Liberals and Steadfast and Business Conservatives are about as large as any seen in the typology survey. Nearly nine-in-ten Steadfast Conservatives (89%) and 86% of Business Conservatives say it is more important to protect gun rights than to control ownership. By contrast, a broad majority of Solid Liberals (81%) say it is more important to control gun ownership. Gun Control vs. Gun Rights More important to ------Protect gun rights----- ---Control gun ownership--- NET Some restrict- ions No restrict- ions NET Most own w/limits Only law officials % % % % % % Total 49 38 11 48 35 12
Steadfast Conservs 89 61 28 9 8 1 Business Conservs 86 62 23 13 9 3 Young Outsiders 63 49 13 35 29 6 Hard-Pressed Skeptics 53 42 11 45 33 12 Next Generation Left 39 35 4 60 48 11 Faith and Family Left 33 27 6 63 41 22 Solid Liberals 15 12 3 81 63 16 2014 Political Typology. Q123/Q123a-b. Dont know responses not shown. Subgroups may not add to NETs because of rounding and omission of dont know responses. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 79
www.pewresearch.org 27 28 28 37 38 61 61 39 53 55 56 46 52 23 25 45 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Oppose Common Core educ standards Favor Common Core educ standards The other Typology groups generally tack toward the dominant position within the party with which they are more affiliated. About six-in-ten of the Faith and Family Left (63%) and Next Generation Left (60%) prioritize controlling gun ownership. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are divided, with about as many saying it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns (53%) as control gun ownership (45%). The right-leaning Young Outsiders say protecting the right of Americans to own guns (63%), rather than controlling ownership (35%), should be the more important priority. Overall, 60% of the public has heard either a lot (18%) or a little (41%) about the Common Core education standards for students in grades K-12; 40% have heard nothing at all. Among those who have heard of the standards, 45% say they favor Common Core while 39% are opposed. Intense views on the issue, while not widely held, are more prevalent among those opposed than in favor of the standards: 15% say they strongly oppose Common Core, compared with 9% who strongly favor it. A relatively new issue to public debate, Common Core has quickly taken on a partisan cast. The two solidly-Republican groups, Steadfast and Business Conservatives, oppose Common Core by more than two-to-one (61%-25% and 61%-23%, respectively). By contrast, majorities of the Democratically- oriented Next Generation Left (56%), Faith and Family Left (55%), and Solid Liberals (53%) say they favor the Common Core education standards. Common Core Draws Opposition From the Right Among those who have heard of Common Core, % who
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www.pewresearch.org 30 42 24 33 23 34 45 33 62 52 70 63 72 58 51 61 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Oppose legal gambling in state Favor legal gambling in state Most Americans say they favor legalized casino gambling in their state (61%), while only about half as many say they are opposed (33%). There are only modest differences in views across typology groups on this question. At least half of all groups say they favor legal casino gambling in their state. Steadfast Conservatives express the greatest level of concern over legalized gambling in their state: 51% favor it, 45% are opposed. Support is highest among Young Outsiders (72%) and the Next Generation Left (70%), the two youngest typology groups.
Modest Ideological Differences in Views of Casino Gambling % who
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www.pewresearch.org 40 59 56 51 56 81 72 56 51 66 68 70 69 73 75 65 40 53 50 48 53 70 68 52 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Section 9: Patriotism, Personal Traits, Lifestyles and Demographics The Pew Research Centers June 12 report on political polarization in America found that the right and left have very different ideas about aspects of life beyond day-to day politics, such as the ideal features of a community and the types of people they would welcome into their families. The typology study also demonstrates wide ideological differences in feelings of patriotism, views about the countrys future, religious beliefs and practices, and even leisure activities and daily habits. The typology groups also vary widely by demographics. (See the detailed demographics table at the end of this section.) Feelings of pride in being American and a belief that honor and duty are core values are much more widespread among the two conservative groups than the other typology groups. Overall, 81% of Business Conservatives and 72% of Steadfast Conservatives say the phrase often feel proud to be American describes them well. These are by far the highest percentages across typology groups. Smaller majorities of the Faith and Family Left (59%), Next Generation Left (56%) and Young Outsiders (56%) say they often feel a sense of pride in being American. However, Hard-Pressed Skeptics are divided about as many say they often feel pride in being American (51%) as do not (49%). And just 40% of Solid Liberals say they often feel pride in being American; 60% say that characterization does not fit them well. Conservatives More Likely to Say They Are Often Proud to be American % saying each describes them well Honor and duty are my core values Often feel proud to be American Think of myself as a typical American
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www.pewresearch.org 42 61 43 51 40 66 69 52 64 50 70 48 61 68 51 59 65 68 62 70 65 66 57 65 82 73 74 75 71 72 65 74 27 57 32 48 34 64 72 46 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total In addition to high levels of patriotism, the groups on the right also are most likely to say they have a sense of honor and duty. About seven-in-ten Business Conservatives (70%) and Steadfast Conservatives (68%) say the phrase honor and duty are my core values fits them. Far fewer in the other typology groups, including just 40% of Solid Liberals, say this description applies well to them. Overall, 65% of the public say they think of themselves as a typical American, and this self- description is shared widely across each of the typology groups, again with the exception of Solid Liberals. About half of Solid Liberals (51%) say they think of themselves as a typical American while about as many (49%) do not. A large majority of Americans (74%) say the phrase compassion and helping others are my core values describes them well. This description is embraced by majorities across all typology groups, though Solid Liberals (82%) are the most likely to say it applies to them. Most Americans (65%) also view themselves as trusting. The proportion saying this ranges from 57% (among Steadfast Conservatives) to 70% (among Hard-Pressed Skeptics). There are greater differences in peoples perception of whether they are religious and spiritual. How They View Themselves: Compassion, Trust, Optimism, Religion % saying each describes them well Religious person Spiritual person Upbeat and optimistic Trusting person Compassion and helping others are my core values
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W3): ME1b, ME1c, ME1e, ME3d, ME4c. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 83
www.pewresearch.org Overall, 46% say they are religious, while slightly more (52%) say they are spiritual. As might be expected, the highly religious typology groups Steadfast Conservatives, Business Conservatives and the Faith and Family Left are most likely to say both of these descriptions apply to them. In general, there is little difference between the percentage of people who see themselves as religious and those who say they are spiritual. For example, 64% of Business Conservatives say they are religious; about as many say they are spiritual (66%). However, among Solid Liberals, more call themselves spiritual (42%) than say they are religious (27%). Among the Next Generation Left, more also describe themselves as spiritual (43%) than religious (32%). The typology groups also express somewhat different attitudes about the future, reflecting, in part, their political beliefs and financial circumstances. Most Americans (59%) say they are generally upbeat and optimistic, but this is not a majority view across all typology groups. Only about half of the Hard-Pressed Skeptics (48%) and the Faith and Family Left (50%) who have the lowest family incomes of the typology groups say the phrase upbeat and optimistic describes them well. Steadfast Conservatives, who are much better off financially than these two groups, also are relatively gloomy: 51% describe themselves as upbeat and optimistic. A positive outlook is most prevalent among the affluent Business Conservatives (68%) and the Next Generation Left (70%). Most Solid Liberals (64%) and Young Outsiders (61%) also describe themselves as upbeat and optimistic.
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www.pewresearch.org 23 41 7 29 15 23 12 7 20 29 13 24 25 16 25 23 18 21 11 5 16 8 21 13 30 43 18 40 31 59 34 61 42 55 69 49 Bystanders Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total White Evangelical Other Steadfast Conservatives are one of the most religious groups in the typology. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) identify as Protestant, a much higher share than among the public overall (49%). And the share of Steadfast Conservatives who are white evangelical Protestants (43%) is more than twice as large as in the public generally (18%). The Democratic-leaning Faith and Family Left are as likely as Steadfast Conservatives to be affiliated with a religion (just 7% are unaffiliated), but fewer are white evangelical Protestants and somewhat more identify as Catholic. Solid Liberals are the least religious group 41% are not affiliated with a religion; 10% describe themselves as atheists, 9% say they are agnostic and 22% say they are nothing in particular. Religious Affiliation and the Typology Groups % who are Protestant Catholic Unaffiliated
2014 Political Typology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 85
www.pewresearch.org 29 19 51 21 37 25 47 55 35 Bystanders Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Most Steadfast Conservatives regularly attend religious services. Overall, 55% say they attend weekly or more. The Faith and Family Left are nearly as likely to go to religious services at least once a week (51%). Many Business Conservatives also regularly attend services: 47% go at least once a week, compared with 35% of the public as a whole. Only about two-in-ten of the Next Generation Left (21%) and Solid Liberals (19%) go to religious services weekly, making them the two typology groups least likely to be regular attenders. How Often Do You Attend Religious Services? % saying they attend weekly or more
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www.pewresearch.org 56 30 48 28 67 36 20 32 40 41 69 50 70 31 63 77 64 58 Bystanders Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Often struggle to make ends meet Paying the bills generally not a problem The financial challenges facing the Hard- Pressed Skeptics, who have the lowest family incomes of the main typology groups, are shown by the large majority (67%) who say: I often dont have enough money to make ends meet. That is by far the highest percentage of any typology group; even among the young struggling Bystanders, fewer (56%) say they routinely face financial shortfalls. Notably, typology groups on both the right and left feel relatively comfortable financially. Nearly eight-in-ten Business Conservatives (77%) and 64% of Steadfast Conservatives, as well as large majorities of the Next Generation Left (70%) and Solid Liberals (69%), say paying the bills is generally not a problem for me.
Hard-Pressed Skeptics Often Dont Have Enough Money to Make Ends Meet % who say
2014 Political Typology. Q50z. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 87
www.pewresearch.org 4 1 4 2 4 6 4 3 50 24 48 22 50 62 55 42 45 73 47 75 46 32 38 54 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Trade stocks regularly Have some long-term investments Have no money in stock market Hard-Pressed Skeptics face even greater financial challenges than the Faith and Family Left, but they are both equally unlikely to be stock market participants. Overall, 73% of the Faith and Family Left report having no money in the stock market, nearly identical to the 75% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics who are not in the market. Slightly more than half of Solid Liberals (55%), Young Outsiders (54%) and the Next Generation Left (52%) say they have at least some long-term investments in the stock market. Business Conservatives (68%) are the most likely to have money in the market, but even among Business Conservatives, just 6% say they regularly trade stocks and other funds.
Few Active Investors, Even Among Business Conservatives % who
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W3): INVEST. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 88
www.pewresearch.org 12 25 20 21 26 33 31 24 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total 24 19 22 21 22 16 11 21 32 38 38 30 41 44 36 36 44 59 57 62 64 58 55 57 53 38 43 40 48 40 34 42 A majority of Americans (57%) say the phrase outdoor person describes them well, and this is true across six of the seven major typology groups; Solid Liberals (44%) are less likely than the other groups to say this description fits them well. And just 12% of Solid Liberals say the phrase hunter, fisher or sportsman describes them well. That also is the lowest percentage among typology groups. On the other hand, while 53% of Solid Liberals say they are focused on health and fitness, only about a third of Steadfast Conservatives (34%) are focused on health and fitness. Interest in sports and video games also differs across typology groups. Business Conservatives (44%) and Young Outsiders (41%) are more likely than Hard-Pressed Skeptics (30%) or Solid Liberals (32%) to say they are sports fans. And Steadfast Conservatives the oldest of the typology groups are less likely than those in almost all of the other groups to say the phrase computer and video gamer describes them well. Leisure Activities of the Typology Groups: Hunting, Sports, Outdoors and Fitness % saying each describes them well
Hunter, fisher or sportsman Video or computer gamer Sports fan Outdoor person Focused on health and fitness
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W3): ME1a, ME3a, ME3b, ME3e, ME4a. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 89
www.pewresearch.org 75 72 68 64 57 45 40 63 24 26 31 35 41 50 52 34 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Do not have gun in home Have gun in home There also are wide differences across typology groups in reported gun ownership: About half in each of the two conservative groups say they have a gun, rifle or pistol in their homes (52% of Steadfast Conservatives, 50% of Business Conservatives). Gun ownership also is relatively common among the Young Outsiders, who express liberal views on many social issues, but are supporters of gun rights (See Section 2). About four-in-ten (41%) Young Outsiders have a gun in their homes. Only about a quarter of the Faith and Family Left (26%) and Solid Liberals (24%) have guns in their homes roughly half the share of the two conservative groups.
Roughly Half of Steadfast, Business Conservatives Have Gun in Their Homes % who
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W3): GUN1. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 90
www.pewresearch.org 67 75 72 84 82 86 92 78 13 11 11 9 9 9 3 10 19 13 16 7 8 5 2 11 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Never Once/twice a month At least once a week Most Americans (78%) say that in a typical month, they never use public transportation; 11% say they use it at least once a week, while 10% say they use it once or twice a month. Public transportation use is higher on the left than right. About a third (32%) of Solid Liberals say they use public transportation at least once or twice a month, including 19% who use it at least once a week. By contrast, 92% of Steadfast Conservatives say they never use public transportation in a typical month.
Solid Liberals Most Likely to Use Public Transportation % who say they use public transportation
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W3): TRANSPORT. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 91
www.pewresearch.org 70 42 58 39 50 45 39 49 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Nearly half of Americans (49%) say the phrase recycle and reuse as a daily habit describes them well; about as many (51%) say this does not describe them. Solid Liberals are the most likely to describe recycling and reuse as part of their daily habits, seven-in-ten (70%) do this, along with 58% of the Next Generation Left. Recycling is practiced less across most of the other typology groups. Only about four-in-ten Steadfast Conservatives (39%), Hard-Pressed Skeptics (39%) and the Faith and Family Left (42%) say they recycle and reuse as a daily habit.
Solid Liberals Most Likely to Recycle % who say recycle and reuse as a daily habit describes them well
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W3): ME2e. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 92
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Demographic Characteristics of the Typology Groups Total Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard- Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs
By- standers % % % % % % % %
% Men 49 44 45 49 42 48 62 59
47 Women 51 56 55 51 58 52 38 41
53
18-29 22 24 15 33 14 30 13 7
38 30-49 33 31 32 36 34 35 33 25
39 50-64 27 28 28 19 32 22 33 36
17 65+ 17 16 24 11 19 12 20 31
6
White 66 69 41 68 61 73 85 87
48 Black 12 13 30 7 20 6 1 2
10 Hispanic 13 8 19 15 9 14 7 4
32
Post graduate 9 21 6 13 2 7 14 5
2 College grad 18 31 12 24 7 18 29 16
8 Some college 32 30 27 36 30 42 34 33
22 HS or less 40 18 54 26 60 33 22 46
67
Family income
$100,000+ 15 22 8 23 5 16 28 16
4 $75,000-100,000 10 12 6 13 5 13 16 13
6 $30,000-$75,000 32 32 31 30 26 36 33 39
23 <$30,000 34 26 45 26 56 27 12 21
58
Union household
Yes 16 20 18 18 15 16 11 16
11 No 83 80 80 81 85 84 88 81
89 2014 Political Typology. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 93
www.pewresearch.org Section 10: Political Participation, Interest and Knowledge On several measures, three groups stand out for their participation in politics: Solid Liberals, Business Conservatives and Steadfast Conservatives. In addition to being the most likely to say they always or nearly always vote, these groups also donate money, contact elected officials and discuss politics with others at the highest rates. Overall, about seven-in-ten (73%) Americans are registered to vote and say they always (49%) or nearly always (22%) vote. This rises to about nine-in-ten Steadfast Conservatives (89%) and Business Conservatives (91%), and more than eight-in-ten Solid Liberals (84%) Fewer in the Faith and Family Left (74%) always or nearly always vote, and vote intentions are comparable among the Next Generation Left (76%) and Young Outsiders (75%). Hard-Pressed Skeptics are the least likely to say they always or nearly always vote (66%). A similar pattern emerges when it comes to paying attention to government and public affairs and engaging in political activities. Fully three-quarters of Business Conservatives (75%) follow whats going on in government and public affairs most of the time, as do about two-thirds of Steadfast Conservatives (68%) and Solid Liberals (65%). Among the four groups in the middle of the typology, less than half follow government and public affairs to the same degree. Steadfast, Business Conservatives Most Likely to Vote % who say they vote
2014 Political Typology. OFTVOTE. Based on total; asked of registered voters. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 56 53 46 45 47 68 71 49 29 22 29 21 28 22 18 22 84 74 76 66 75 91 89 71 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Always Nearly always NET 94
www.pewresearch.org The three more partisan groups are also more likely to engage in a variety of activities related to politics. About four-in-ten (39%) say they have donated money to a campaign or group working to elect a candidate, worked or volunteered for a campaign, contacted an elected official or attended a campaign event in the past two years. More than half of Solid Liberals (59%), Business Conservatives (57%) and Steadfast Conservatives (53%) have engaged in one or more of those political activities in the past two years. The share drops to 41% among the Next Generation Left, 35% of Young Outsiders, 32% of the Faith and Family Left, and 26% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics.
Among Four Groups, Less Than Half Frequently Follow News About Government and Public Affairs % who
* Activities include donating money to a campaign or group working to elect a candidate, working/volunteering for a campaign, contacting an elected official and attending a campaign event. 2014 Political Typology. Q40, Q101, Q105. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 65 43 46 43 42 75 68 48 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Follow gov't/public affairs most of the time 59 32 41 26 35 57 53 39 Engaged in one or more activity* in last 2 years 95
www.pewresearch.org In general, that trend holds for each of the individual activities. Solid Liberals, Business Conservatives and Steadfast Conservatives are significantly more likely than people in the other groups to have donated money in the last two years. They are also much more likely to have contacted an elected official. Solid Liberals stand out as more likely than those in any other group to have worked or volunteered time for a candidate or campaign. Solid Liberals, Conservative Groups Participate Most in Political Activities Total Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard- Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs % % % % % % % % In last 2 years Campaign donor 15 29 11 14 6 9 24 21 More than $250 4 7 3 3 2 2 7 6 Worked/Volunteered for a campaign 8 15 8 7 4 6 9 9 Contacted elected official 28 44 19 29 17 25 44 42 Attended a campaign event 15 25 14 18 10 13 22 18 2014 Political Typology. Q101, Q102, Q105. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 96
www.pewresearch.org Government and politics ranks alongside health and medicine as one of the general topics people are most interested in. Yet there are wide disparities between the typology groups. About half of Solid Liberals (52%), Business Conservatives (59%) and Steadfast Conservatives (54%) list politics and government as one of their top-three interests. Among the other groups, far fewer list politics as one of their top interests. Just 29% of both Young Outsiders and the Next Generation Left rank politics as one of the topics they are most interested in, as do 22% of the Faith and Family Left. And among Hard-Pressed Skeptics, only 16% rate politics and government as a top interest, near the bottom of the list. (Note: These questions were asked only of internet users, 89% of the general population.)
Which Topics Are You Most Interested in? % who say each topic is one of the three they are most interested in Total Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard- Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs % % % % % % % % Health 37 Politics 52 Health 41 Sci/Tech 41 Health 48 Health 38 Politics 59 Politics 54 Politics 36 Sci/Tech 43 Religion 37 Health 36 Religion 32 Sci/Tech 32 Religion 38 Religion 42 Sci/Tech 32 Health 39 Community events 26 Politics 29 Entertain 30 Sports 30 Business 30 Health 33 Religion 28 Religion 22 Entertain 23 Entertain 24 Community events 29 Politics 29 Sci/Tech 29 Community events 23 Sports 23 Art/Theater 21 Sports 23 Community events 23 Sci/Tech 26 Entertain 24 Health 24 Sports 21 Community events 22 Community events 18 Politics 22 Sports 22 Sports 25 Community events 21 Sports 21 Sci/Tech 20 Entertain 20 Sports 18 Sci/Tech 19 Art/Theater 21 Politics 16 Business 21 Community events 19 Business 14 Business 16 Entertain 13 Business 17 Religion 18 Art/Theater 15 Religion 20 Entertain 8 Entertain 9 Art/Theater 14 Business 12 Art/Theater 7 Business 17 Business 8 Art/Theater 11 Art/Theater 6 Art/Theater 3
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W1): Q1/Q2. Respondents were asked about their interest in nine topics. Those who selected more than three were then asked to select the three they were most interested in. Based on web sample. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 97
www.pewresearch.org In addition to being more interested in government and politics, Steadfast Conservatives, Business Conservatives and Solid Liberals are the most likely to discuss government and politics with others; about six-in-ten report doing so at least a few times a week, compared with four-in-ten or fewer of the other groups. Another key measure of political engagement is how knowledgeable people are about the current political landscape, and here again the more ideological groups score far higher. Nationwide, just 40% of Americans can correctly identify the partisan balance in both the House of Representatives and the Senate (that Republicans have the majority in the former, and Democrats in the latter). The remaining six-in-ten know only one (33%) or neither (28%) of those facts. Business Conservatives are the most likely to correctly identify the majority party in both houses of Congress (69%), followed by Solid Liberals (60%) and Steadfast Conservatives (54%). Fewer than half in any of the other groups can correctly identify the majority party in both houses. About four-in-ten (42%) of the Next Generation Left, just three-in-ten (30%) Young Outsiders, and only about a quarter of the Faith and Family Left (26%) and Hard-Pressed Skeptics (23%) are able to correctly identify both. These differences are exhibited in how people communicate about politics as well. The two most conservative groups and the Solid Liberals are more likely than those in other groups to say they enjoy talking about politics with friends and family. In addition, those three groups are the most likely to have friends who share their views on politics. More than half of Steadfast Conservatives (58%) say most of their close friends share their views, as do 49% of Business Conservatives and 45% of Solid Liberals. By contrast, far fewer in the middle four groups say this about their close friends, instead saying they either have many friends with different points of view, or simply that they dont know their friends political views. Who Controls the Senate and House? Which has House majority: Republicans or Democrats? Which has Senate majority: Republicans or Democrats?
2014 Political Typology. Q41, Q42. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 60 26 42 23 30 69 54 40 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total % answering both questions correctly 98
www.pewresearch.org In that same vein, those three groups are more likely to disagree than agree with the statement: It makes me uncomfortable when people argue about politics. By contrast, more among the Faith and Family Left agree than disagree that they are uncomfortable when people argue about politics (57%-42%). Most Faith and Family Left Uncomfortable When People Argue About Politics How many close friends share your views on government and politics? It makes me uncomfortable when people argue about politics
2014 Political Typology. ATP(W1): Q44, ATP(W3): AGREE2. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 45 26 29 26 26 49 58 35 42 33 50 32 46 42 29 39 13 41 21 41 27 8 13 26 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Most share Some share, but many don't I don't really know their views 65 42 57 50 53 67 60 55 35 57 43 49 47 32 40 44 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Total Disagree Agree 99
www.pewresearch.org Appendix 1: Typology Group Profiles STEADFAST CONSERVATIVES 12% OF ADULT POPULATION / 15% OF REGISTERED VOTERS / 19% OF VERY ENGAGED 84% Rep/Lean Rep (56% Rep, 28% Lean Rep)
Basic description: This overwhelmingly Republican group holds very conservative attitudes across most issues, including social policy and the size and scope of government. However, they are critical of business and Wall Street. Steadfast Conservatives also express highly negative attitudes toward immigrants and take a skeptical view of U.S. global involvement. Defining values: Among all typology groups, Staunch Conservatives are the most likely to say they are angry with the federal government. Just 12% favor same-sex marriage and 24% support legal abortion the lowest shares of any group. Fully 81% of Steadfast Conservatives think that the growing number of newcomers from other countries threatens traditional American customs and values. Most think that U.S. efforts to solve global problems usually make things worse and just 39% think free trade agreements are good for the United States, the lowest percentage of any group. Political attitudes: Steadfast Conservatives are highly engaged in politics: fully 74% say they always or nearly always vote in primary elections. They overwhelmingly supported Mitt Romney in 2012; this year, 88% support the Republican candidate in their congressional district. Steadfast Conservatives have favorable opinions of several possible GOP candidates in 2016, but just 44% have a favorable view of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Who they are: Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) are non-Hispanic white and 59% are male. Steadfast Conservatives are the oldest typology group (31% are 65 or older) and have the highest share of white evangelical Protestants (43%). They are less educated and have lower family incomes than Business Conservatives. Still, 64% of Steadfast Conservatives say paying the bills is generally not a problem. Lifestyle notes: Many are regular churchgoers (55% attend religious services at least weekly), while 52% have a gun in their households. . 100
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KEY BELIEFS
General Public Steadfast Conservatives % % Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient 56 91 Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return 44 86 Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good 47 85 It is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage 47 7
Oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally 39 84 Our country has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites 49 81 This country been successful more because of its reliance on long-standing principles than its ability to change 44 78 The countrys best years are behind us 49 76 This country has gone too far in its efforts to protect the environment 25 75
Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care 35 73 The Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence among its believers 38 72 The best way to ensure peace is through military strength 30 71 U.S. efforts to solve problems around the world usually end up making things worse 40 55
Society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority 46 80 Religion is a very important part of my life 66 83 Humans and other living things have existed in their present form since the beginning of time 34 53 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2014 Political Typology. 101
www.pewresearch.org BUSINESS CONSERVATIVES 10% OF ADULT POPULATION / 12% OF REGISTERED VOTERS / 17% OF VERY ENGAGED 86% Rep/Lean Rep (49% Rep, 37% Lean Rep)
Basic description: Business Conservatives are traditional small-government Republicans. Overwhelming percentages think that government is almost always wasteful and it does too much better left to businesses and individuals. Business Conservatives differ from Steadfast Conservatives in their strong support for Wall Street and business more generally. There are other important differences as well: Most Business Conservatives think that immigrants strengthen the country and take a positive view of U.S. global involvement. They are less socially conservative than Steadfast Conservatives. Defining values: Business Conservatives are more likely than other typology groups to identify as libertarians, though just 27% say that term describes them well. Their political values and attitudes do reflect a libertarian philosophy in some respects, though there are important differences as well. They are the only group in which a majority (67%) believes the economic system is fair to most Americans rather than unfairly tilted in favor of the powerful. Business Conservatives are not liberal on most social issues, but they are more progressive than Steadfast Conservatives. For instance, while nearly half of Business Conservatives (49%) oppose same-sex marriage, 58% say homosexuality should be accepted rather than discouraged. Political attitudes: They have favorable impressions of several possible GOP candidates in 2016, but they are most favorable toward Rep. Paul Ryan (79% favorable). Business Conservatives also are more likely than Steadfast Conservatives to have a favorable view of New Jersey Gov. Christ Christie (56% vs. 44%). They are knowledgeable about politics and are politically engaged 71% say they always or nearly always vote in primary elections. Who they are: Business Conservatives are the most affluent typology group 45% have family incomes of $75,000 or more; 28% have incomes of at least $100,000. Most Business Conservatives are 50 or older, but as a group they are not as old as Steadfast Conservatives. Most are white non-Hispanic (85%) and male (62%). Roughly three-quarters (77%) of Business Conservatives have attended college and 43% have a four-year degree. Among Steadfast Conservatives, only about half (54%) have been to college and just 21% have completed their degrees. Lifestyle notes: Most Business Conservatives live in the suburbs (54%). Two-thirds of Business Conservatives (68%) have investments in the stock market and 57% say they are interested in business and finance both figures are highest among typology groups. 102
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KEY BELIEFS
General Public Business Conservatives % % It is not the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage 50 92 Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 51 90 The government today cant afford to do much more to help the needy 51 89 Most people who want to get ahead can make it if theyre willing to work hard 65 88 Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient 56 88 Some future reductions to Social Security need to be considered 31 49
Stricter environmental laws cost too many jobs and hurt the economy 39 84 Wall Street helps the American economy more than it hurts 45 74 Business corporations make too much profit 56 10
Its best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs 35 67 The best way to ensure peace is through military strength 30 67 Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents 57 64
I worry the government is getting too involved in the issue of morality 62 71 It is not necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values 53 66 Homosexuality should be accepted by society 62 58 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2014 Political Typology. 103
www.pewresearch.org YOUNG OUTSIDERS 14% OF ADULT POPULATION, 15% OF REGISTERED VOTERS, 11% OF VERY ENGAGED 49% Rep/Lean Rep (23% Rep, 26% Lean Rep); 35% Dem/Lean Dem
Basic description: This relatively young, largely independent group holds a mix of conservative and liberal views. And while more lean toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party, Young Outsiders express unfavorable opinions of both major parties. They are skeptical of activist government; a substantial majority views government as wasteful and inefficient. Yet they diverge from the two conservative typology groups Steadfast Conservatives and Business Conservatives in their strong support for the environment and many liberal social policies.
Defining values: A large majority of Young Outsiders (81%) think poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return. That is among the highest share of any typology group. Two-thirds (66%) say government is doing too much to solve problems, while only about half as many (32%) want it to do more. Yet most Young Outsiders favor government action to protect the environment; 68% say stricter environmental laws are worth the cost. Majorities of Young Outsiders favor same-sex marriage (68%) and legalizing marijuana (67%), while 58% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. However, they also are strong supporters of gun rights. About six-in-ten (63%) say it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns while just 35% think it is more important to control gun ownership.
Political attitudes: In this falls midterms, Young Outsiders favor the Republican in their district by 53% to 33%. Yet they are not deeply engaged in politics. Only 42% say they follow whats going on in politics and government most of the time, and just 30% know that Democrats have a majority in the Senate and that Republicans control the House. Young Outsiders have divided views of many political figures; no leading Republican is viewed more positively than negatively.
Who they are: Young Outsiders are one of the youngest typology groups; 30% are under 30 and most are under 50. About three-quarters (73%) are non-Hispanic whites, and about as many are male (48%) as female (52%). They are relatively secure financially, for their age profile, and most (63%) say paying the bills is generally not a problem.
Lifestyle notes: Young Outsiders are detached from religion as well as politics. Just 25% say they attend religious services at least weekly. Most Young Outsiders say it is important to live in a community with high quality public schools and where they can live near extended family. Relatively few place priority on living near people who share their religious faith (23%) or political views (18%).
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KEY BELIEFS
General Public Young Outsiders % % Government aid to the poor does more harm than good 48 86 Government cant afford to do much more to help the needy 51 76 Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient 56 75 Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest 47 34
Homosexuality should be accepted by society 62 78 Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost 56 68 Use of marijuana should be legal 54 67 More important to protect gun rights than to control gun ownership 49 63 Abortion should be legal in all or most cases 51 58 Society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority 46 30
We should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home 60 85 U.S. efforts to solve problems around the world usually end up making things worse 40 59 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2014 Political Typology. 105
www.pewresearch.org HARD-PRESSED SKEPTICS 13% OF ADULT POPULATION, 13% OF REGISTERED VOTERS, 9% OF VERY ENGAGED 53% Dem/Lean Dem (37% Dem, 16% Lean Dem); 32% Rep/Lean Rep
Basic description: Deeply financially-stressed and distrustful of government, Hard-Pressed Skeptics lean toward the Democratic Party but have reservations about both political parties. They want government to do more to solve problems, but have doubts about its efficiency. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are dissatisfied with conditions in the country and their communities. They are among the most cynical about the ability of individuals to improve their lot through hard work. These attitudes may reflect their distressed financial conditions: Hard-Pressed Skeptics have the lowest family incomes of any of the typology groups.
Defining values: Seven-in-ten (71%) Hard-Pressed Skeptics say the poor have hard lives because government benefits dont go far enough to help them live decently. Despite their strong support for a government safety net, however, most take a dim view of government performance. Fully 72% say government is wasteful and inefficient, far higher than any other Democratic-leaning group. Their opinions about business and Wall Street are equally negative. More generally, 74% think the U.S. economic system favors powerful interests. About eight-in-ten (79%) view immigrants as a burden on the country. They also are wary of U.S. global involvement. An overwhelming 87% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics think the U.S. should pay less attention to overseas problems and concentrate more on problems at home.
Political attitudes: Just 39% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics say they are interested in government and politics, the lowest percentage of any typology group. Fewer than a quarter (23%) are aware of which parties control the House and Senate. In 2012, 62% of registered voters in this group say they voted for Barack Obama. But today, just 44% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics approve of Obamas job performance. Just 26% have a favorable view of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi while 39% view her unfavorably. But Hillary Clinton is popular with Hard-Pressed Skeptics: 62% have a favorable impression of Clinton.
Who they are: About six-in-ten (61%) are non-Hispanic whites; 20% are black, while 9% are Hispanic. Hard-Pressed Skeptics have the highest share of women (58%) of any typology group. Just 9% are college graduates, by far the lowest percentage of all the groups; 60% have no more than a high school education. More than half (56%) have annual family incomes less than $30,000. About half (51%) are 50 or older, which is somewhat higher than the share of older Americans in the public (44%).
Lifestyle notes: Only about a third of Hard-Pressed Skeptics (32%) say they work-full-time. Nearly half (46%) live in the suburbs, but more express a preference for living in a small town than in a suburb or city.
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KEY BELIEFS
General Public Hard-Pressed Skeptics % %
I often dont have enough money to make ends meet 40 67 Hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people 32 65 The country cant solve many of its important problems 50 64 The countrys best years are behind us 49 61
Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient 56 72 Poor people have hard lives because government benefits dont go far enough 47 71 Government should do more to help the needy even if it means going deeper into debt 43 66 Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest 47 28
Immigrants today are a burden on the country 35 79 Business corporations make too much profit 56 79 Wall Street hurts the economy more than it helps 42 54
U.S. should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate at home 60 87 U.S. effort to solve problems around the world usually end up making things worse 40 57 Free trade agreements with other countries have been a bad thing for U.S. 30 44
Religion is a very important part of life 66 76 Homosexuality should be accepted by society 62 49 Abortion should be legal in all or most cases 51 44 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2014 Political Typology. 107
www.pewresearch.org NEXT GENERATION LEFT 12% OF ADULT POPULATION / 13% OF REGISTERED VOTERS / 11% OF VERY ENGAGED 65% Dem/Lean Dem (35% Dem, 29% Lean Dem)
Basic description: Young, well-educated and financially comfortable, the Next Generation Left have very liberal attitudes on many issues, including homosexuality and abortion, the environment and foreign policy. They are supportive of an activist government, but wary of expanding the social safety net. They also have relatively positive views of Wall Streets impact on the economy. While most affiliate with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, few consider themselves strong Democrats. Defining values: Fully 88% of the Next Generation Left say that homosexuality should be accepted by society and 78% favor same-sex marriage. Just 24% believe society is better off if people make getting married and having children a priority. The Next Generation Left are not critical of government 67% say it often does a better job than people give it credit for. And most think government aid to the poor does more good than harm. Yet 56% say the government cannot afford to do much more to help the needy. The Next Generation Left value racial and ethnic diversity, but just 19% think that racial discrimination is holding back many blacks; far more (68%) say blacks who cant ahead are responsible for their own condition. Political attitudes: The Next Generation Left were solidly in the Democratic camp in 2012 and are likely to be there again this year 61% of registered voters support the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, or lean Democratic, in a 2014 ballot test. However, 49% think the Democratic Party too often sees government as the only way to solve problems. Only about a third of the Next Generation Left (35%) are Democrats and just 15% say they are strong Democrats. Still, most (65%) at least lean to the Democratic Party. This group has the highest share of self-described moderates (53%) in the political typology. Who they are: About two-thirds (68%) are non-Hispanic whites and 15% are Hispanic. One of the two youngest groups, the average age is 41 and a third (33%) are younger than 30. Roughly three- quarters (74%) have some college experience and 62% are financially satisfied. Lifestyle notes: Only about half of the Next Generation Left (47%) view religion as very important and only about one-in-five (21%) attend services at least weekly. Most (71%) have an interest in science and technology. While 57% say it is important to live close to museums and theaters, an even higher percentage (70%) value access to the outdoors for hiking, fishing and camping.
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KEY BELIEFS
General Public Next Generation Left % % Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost 56 81 Government aid to the poor does more good than harm 47 68 The government today cant afford to do much more to help the needy 51 56 Wall Street HELPS the American economy more than it hurts 45 56 Most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit 39 45
It is NOT necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values 53 91 Most people who want to get ahead can make it if theyre willing to work hard 65 77 Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents 57 83 Favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally 54 78 Blacks who cant get ahead are mostly responsible for their own condition 63 68 Our country has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites 49 67 Society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority 46 24
Good diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace 62 76 Free trade agreements with other countries have been good for the U.S. 59 73 Relying too much on military force to defeat terrorism creates hatred that leads to more terrorism 57 71 Its best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs 35 54 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2014 Political Typology. 109
www.pewresearch.org FAITH AND FAMILY LEFT 15% OF ADULT POPULATION, 16% OF REGISTERED VOTERS, 12% OF VERY ENGAGED 61% Dem/Lean Dem (46% Dem, 15% Lean Dem)
Basic description: The Faith and Family Left combine strong support for activist government with conservative attitudes on many social issues. They are highly diverse this is the only typology group that is majority-minority. The Faith and Family Left favor increased government aid for the poor even if it adds to the deficit and believe that government should do more to solve national problems. They oppose same-sex marriage and legalizing marijuana. Religion and family are at the center of their lives. Most say it is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral.
Defining values: Fully 85% of the Faith and Family Left say religion is very important and 51% want the government to do more to protect morality -- the highest percentage of any typology group. Most support government aid to the poor: 59% say it does more good than harm because people are unable to escape poverty unless their basic needs are met. Fully 74% support affirmative action programs and just 23% think the country has made needed changes to give blacks equal rights. Yet a majority of the Faith and Family Left (57%) say that blacks who are unable to get ahead are responsible for their own condition.
Political attitudes: Most say they voted for Obama in 2012 and this year 63% of registered voters support the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district. Yet they have the highest share of self-described conservatives (37%) of any Democratic-leaning typology group. Just half know that the GOP has a majority in the House and even fewer (44%) know that Democrats have a majority in the Senate.
Who they are: The Faith and Family Left includes the highest share of African Americans (30%) and Hispanics (19%) of any typology group; they also have the largest share of foreign-born (18%). One of the least educated (54% have no more than a high school education), and lowest income groups (45% make less than $30,000 a year). Roughly half (51%) are 50 and older.
Lifestyle notes: Two-thirds (66%) say they are interested in religion and spirituality. Roughly half (51%) attend services at least weekly. Fully 73% say compassion and helping others are core values. Just 38% are interested in health and fitness, among the lowest shares of any typology group. 110
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KEY BELIEFS
General Public Faith & Family Left % % Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest 47 67 Government often does a better job than people give it credit for 40 63 Government aid to poor does more good than harm 46 59 Government should do more to help the needy even if it means going deeper into debt 43 58
Religion is very important part of life 66 85 Society is better off when people make marriage and having children a priority 46 64 Humans and other living things have evolved over time 61 44
Racial discrimination is the main reason why many blacks cant get ahead these days 27 31 View affirmative action programs as a good thing 63 74 Immigrants strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents 57 70
Homosexuality should be accepted by society 62 43 Favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally 54 37 Abortion should be legal in all or most cases 51 40 Marijuana should be legal 54 43 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2014 Political Typology. 111
www.pewresearch.org SOLID LIBERALS 15% OF ADULT POPULATION / 17% OF REGISTERED VOTERS / 21% OF VERY ENGAGED 89% Dem/Lean Dem (61% Dem, 28% Lean Dem)
BASIC DESCRIPTION: Highly educated and affluent, Solid Liberals strongly support the social safety net and take very liberal positions on virtually all issues. Most say they always vote Democratic and they are unflagging supporters of Barack Obama. Solid Liberals are very optimistic about the nations future and are the most likely to say that Americas success is linked to its ability to change, rather than its reliance on long-standing principles. On foreign policy, Solid Liberals overwhelmingly believe that good diplomacy rather than military strength is the best way to ensure peace; in addition, most say that relying too much on military force to defeat terrorism creates hatred that fuels more terrorism.
DEFINING VALUES: Fully 83% of Solid Liberals say the government should do more to help the needy, even if it means going deeper into debt. About as many (87%) say government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest. An equally large majority (87%) says abortion should be legal in all or most cases; 44% say there should be no restrictions at all on abortion. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) say that religion is not that important to them. Eight-in-ten say racial discrimination is the main reason blacks cant get ahead; among the public generally, just 27% express this view.
POLITICAL ATTITUDES: Solid Liberals strongly backed Barack Obama in 2012 and remain supportive of him today: 84% approve of his job performance, with 51% approving very strongly. Solid Liberals view other leading Democrats positively as well. Nearly nine-in-ten (88%) have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is not as well known; still, 61% view the Massachusetts senator favorably while just 9% view her unfavorably. About as many have a very favorable impression of Warren as Clinton (40% Warren, 42% Clinton). While Solid Liberals view many leading Republicans unfavorably, they have especially negative opinions of Sen. Ted Cruz: 2% have a favorable opinion of Cruz, compared with 71% who view him unfavorably 62% very unfavorably.
WHO THEY ARE: The most highly educated of the typology groups, 52% have college degrees and 21% have graduate degrees. They also are the most urban group (47% live in urban areas), and are generally satisfied with their financial situation. A majority of Solid Liberals (56%) are women. Nearly half (46%) seldom or never attend religious services.
LIFESTYLE NOTES: Solid Liberals prefer an urban lifestyle: 45% say if they could live anywhere they wanted, they would live in a city. And 73% would rather live in a community with smaller houses closer to schools and shopping, than one with larger houses where things are farther apart; that is the highest percentage of any typology group. A large majority (69%) values living in a community that is in close proximity to art museums and theaters. Just 12% say the description hunter, fisher or sportsman fits them well, the lowest share of any typology group.
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KEY BELIEFS
General Public Solid Liberals % % Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost 56 93 U.S. economic system unfairly favors powerful interests 62 88 Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest 47 87 Government should do more to help the needy even if it means going deeper into debt 43 83 Business corporations make too much profit 56 80 Solid evidence that global warming is caused by human activity 40 78 Government often does a better job than people give it credit for 40 70
Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents 57 93 Abortion should be legal in all or most cases 51 87 Racial discrimination is the main reason why many blacks cant get ahead these days 27 80 This country has been successful more because of its ability to change than reliance on long-standing principles 51 79 Children are better off when a parent stays home to focus on the family 60 40
Good diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace 62 91 Its best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs 35 55 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2014 Political Typology. 113
www.pewresearch.org BYSTANDERS 10% OF ADULT POPULATION, 0% OF REGISTERED VOTERS 43% Dem/Lean Dem (19% Dem, 24% Lean Dem), 23% Rep/Lean Rep (7% Rep, 16% Lean Rep), 34% Ind/Other no leaning
Basic description: Bystanders are on the sidelines of the political process, either by choice or because they are ineligible to vote. None are currently registered to vote. Most follow government and public affairs only now and then (32%) or hardly at all (32%).
Who they are: Nearly four-in-ten Bystanders (38%) are under 30. About a third (32%) are Hispanic, 10% are black and 48% are non-Hispanic whites. A third were born outside the United States. Bystanders have low levels of education and household income. Two-thirds (67%) have no college experience; just 11% are college graduates. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) have family incomes of $30,000 or less.
Lifestyle notes: Bystanders like the outdoors: 66% think of themselves as an outdoor person. In addition, 35% describe themselves as a video or computer gamer. Among the public generally, just 21% think of themselves as video gamers. Bystanders are more likely to say they are interested in celebrities and entertainment than the public overall (64% vs. 44%); about two-thirds (64%) are interested in health and medicine, and 50% follow science and technology. Bystanders express relatively low interest in business and finance and, not surprisingly, government and politics.
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www.pewresearch.org Appendix 2: About the Political Typology The 2014 political typology divides the public into seven politically engaged groups, along with an eighth group of less engaged Bystanders. The assignment of individuals to one of the seven core typology groups is based on their responses to 23 questions about social and political values. The questions used in the typology construction are in a balanced alternative format where respondents choose which of two statements most closely reflects their own views (Q25 and Q50 in the topline). Items included in the typology construction measure a variety of dimensions of political values and are used to group people in multi dimensional political space. Many of these values are similar to those used in past typology studies; however this years typology is a departure from past analyses because it uses individual questions; in prior years, scales measuring underlying political dimensions were constructed using many of the same questions. This new approach allowed for the inclusion of some additional values not used in prior typologies (for instance, values about U.S. involvement in world affairs). In addition, unlike previous typologies, this years typology does not include any measure of party affiliation in the model, nor does it include measures of personal financial security. The typology groups are created using cluster analysis, a statistical procedure that uses respondents scores on all 23 items to sort them into relatively homogeneous groups. The tables on the following pages show each of the questions and the distribution of responses among of each of the seven typology groups (excluding Bystanders). Cluster analysis is not an exact process. Different cluster solutions are possible using the same data depending on model specifications and even the order in which respondents are sorted. In order to address the sensitivity of cluster analysis to the order in which cases are entered, each cluster model was run several thousand times, and the results compared, to identify the solution that produced the set of groups that were both homogeneous internally and different from one another with respect to the set of political values. In technical terms, the solution for each model with the lowest sum of squared error of the clusters was chosen. Models with different numbers of clusters were examined, and the results evaluated for their effectiveness in producing cohesive groups that were sufficiently distinct from one another, large enough in size to be analytically practical and substantively meaningful. While each model differed somewhat from the others, all of them shared certain key features. The final model selected to produce the political typology was judged to be strongest from a statistical point of view, most persuasive from a substantive point of view, and was representative of the general patterns seen across the various cluster solutions. 116
www.pewresearch.org As in past typologies, a measure of political attentiveness and voting participation was used to extract the Bystander group, people who are largely not engaged or involved in politics, before the remaining respondents were sorted into groups. Bystanders are defined as those who are: 1) Not registered to vote; 2) Say they seldom or never vote; and 3) Do not follow government and public affairs most of the time. They represent 10% of the overall population and were held aside prior to scale development and assignment of the remaining 90% of respondents to their typology groups. 117 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 6 29 32 21 81 77 86 86 62 54 71 10 9 7 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Poor have it easy b/c get govt benefits without doing anything Poor have hard lives b/c benefits don't go far enough 83 58 39 66 18 6 11 12 35 56 27 76 89 85 Govt should do more to help needy Americans Govt can't afford to do much more 7 33 26 33 86 80 86 91 59 68 60 9 13 10 Govt aid to poor does more harm than good Govt aid to poor does more good than harm 25 31 30 72 75 88 91 70 63 67 25 21 10 7 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Govt usually wasteful and inefficient Govt does better job than it gets credit for 87 67 75 28 34 14 11 9 26 19 66 61 81 85 Govt regulation of business is necessary for public interest Govt regulation usually does more harm than good
Questions Used in Creating the Political Typology Views of the Social Safety Net % who say
Views of Government % who say
See topline for full question wording for each item. Dont know responses not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 118 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 6 23 67 39 70 83 81 91 72 28 56 26 12 15 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs U.S. has made changes to make blacks equal U.S. needs to continue to make changes for equality 80 31 19 28 9 7 5 10 57 68 63 84 82 89 Racial discrim is main reason blacks can't get ahead Blacks who can't get ahead are responsible for condition 93 70 83 14 48 64 17 3 22 11 79 43 21 73 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Immigrants strengthen our country b/c of hard work and talents Immigrants are a burden b/c they take jobs, housing, health care 5 25 9 72 39 20 81 92 66 88 23 55 72 13 Growing # of newcomers threatens US customs/values Newcomers strengthen American society
Questions Used in Creating the Political Typology Continued Views about Race % who say
Views of Immigrants % who say
See topline for full question wording for each item. Dont know responses not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 119 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 80 54 50 79 66 10 33 16 41 45 18 31 86 62 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Business corporations make too much profit Most companies make a fair and reasonable profit 95 76 82 85 88 35 71 4 19 15 12 9 57 22 Too much power in the hands of large companies The largest companies do not have too much power 18 64 24 51 30 66 80 77 30 72 43 65 28 16 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Society is better off if most prioritize marriage and having children Society is just as well off if people have other priorities 93 43 88 49 78 58 18 4 48 8 43 15 31 74 Homosexuality should be accepted Homosexuality should be discouraged 89 7 91 31 70 66 29 11 91 7 66 28 31 69 It is not necessary to believe in God be moral It is necessary to believe in God to be moral
Questions Used in Creating the Political Typology Continued Views of Business % who say...
Views about Family, Religion, Homosexuality % who say... See topline for full question wording for each item. Dont know responses not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 120 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 5 28 17 28 20 67 71 91 62 76 64 73 22 22 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Best way to achieve peace through military strength Diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace 8 53 23 31 21 68 72 88 38 71 62 75 22 22 Overwhelming military force is best way to defeat terrorism Military force creates hatred that leads to more terorism 37 22 27 57 59 20 55 54 71 67 38 35 74 39 Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs U.S. involvement around the world makes things worse Things would be even worse without U.S. involvement 24 28 30 14 18 27 18 72 66 66 83 80 69 80 Americans need to give up privacy to be safe from terrorism Americans shouldn't have to give up privacy to be safe 55 39 54 10 12 67 24 38 54 41 87 85 28 71 Best for U.S. to be active in world affairs Should focus more on problems at home
Questions Used in Creating the Political Typology Continued Views about Foreign Policy, Terrorism % who say...
% who say...
See topline for full question wording for each item. Dont know responses not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 121 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 29 82 77 32 76 88 81 67 16 21 65 22 10 17 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs Most people can get ahead if willing to work hard Hard work is no guarantee of success for most 36 12 6 30 8 5 9 56 84 91 64 89 93 89 Success in life is determined by forces outside our control Everyone has it in their power to succeed 96 82 90 75 83 22 21 2 14 7 22 13 70 75 Solid Liberals Faith and Family Left Next Generation Left Hard-Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservs Steadfast Conservs U.S. should do whatever it takes to protect environment U.S. has gone too far in protecting environment 5 28 15 47 29 84 85 93 65 81 47 68 12 11 Stricter environmental laws cost too many jobs Stricter environmental laws are worth the cost
Questions Used in Creating the Political Typology Continued Views about Individualism % who say...
Views about the Environment % who say...
See topline for full question wording for each item. Dont know responses not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 122 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 123 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Appendix 3: About the Surveys The data in this report are based on three independent survey administrations with the same randomly selected, nationally representative group of respondents. The first is the centers largest survey on domestic politics to date: the 2014 Political Polarization and Typology Survey, a telephone survey of just over 10,000 Americans. A subset of these respondents has been impaneled into the newly created American Trends Panel. Follow-up surveys have been conducted with them, and this report includes data from two of these follow-up surveys (the first by Web and telephone, the second by Web and mail). The main telephone survey and the panel surveys are described separately, in further detail, in the section that follows. Most of the analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted January 23-March 16, 2014 among a randomly selected national sample of 10,013 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (5010 respondents were interviewed on a landline, and 5003 were interviewed on a cellphone, including 2,649 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted under the direction of Abt SRBI. A combination of landline and cellphone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who was at home at the time of the call. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://people-press.org/methodology/. Data collection was divided equally into three phases (A, B, and C) with independent samples, non-overlapping interview dates and separate weighting. The questionnaire for each phase contained a core set of measures of political attitudes and values, political engagement and demographic characteristics, along with a set of unique questions about issues, lifestyle, media use and other topics covered in this series of reports. Additionally, most respondents to the survey were invited to join the newly created Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel, described below.
The combined landline and cellphone sample is weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the 2012 Census Bureau's American Community Survey and population density to parameters from the 2010 U.S. Census. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status (landline only, cellphone only or both landline and cellphone), based on extrapolations from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure accounts for the fact 124 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org that respondents with both landline and cellphones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:
Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Group Total sample for all three phases Single phase (phase with smallest N shown)
Unweighted sample size Plus or minus Unweighted sample size Plus or minus Total sample 10013 1.1 percentage points 3335 2.0 percentage points
Steadfast Conservatives 1427 3.0 percentage points 457 5.3 percentage points Business Conservatives 1197 3.3 percentage points 380 5.8 percentage points Young Outsiders 1246 3.2 percentage points 391 5.7 percentage points Hard-Pressed Skeptics 1135 3.4 percentage points 347 6.1 percentage points Next Generation Left 1208 3.3 percentage points 389 5.7 percentage points Faith and Family Left 1393 3.0 percentage points 445 5.4 percentage points Solid Liberals 1752 2.7 percentage points 563 4.8 percentage points Bystanders 655 4.4 percentage points 202 8.0 percentage points 125 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Sample Design A combination of landline and cellphone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Landline and cellphone numbers were sampled to yield an equal number of landline and cellphone interviews. The design of the landline sample ensures representation of both listed and unlisted numbers (including those not yet listed) by using random digit dialing. This method uses random generation of the last two digits of telephone numbers selected on the basis of the area code, telephone exchange and bank number. A bank is defined as 100 contiguous telephone numbers, for example 800-555-1200 to 800-555-1299. The telephone exchanges are selected to be proportionally stratified by county and by telephone exchange within the county. That is, the number of telephone numbers randomly sampled from within a given county is proportional to that countys share of telephone numbers in the U.S. Only banks of telephone numbers containing one or more listed residential numbers are selected. The cellphone sample is drawn through systematic sampling from dedicated wireless banks of 1,000 contiguous numbers and shared service banks with no directory-listed landline numbers (to ensure that the cellphone sample does not include banks that are also included in the landline sample). The sample is designed to be representative, both geographically and by large and small wireless carriers. Both the landline and cell samples are released for interviewing in replicates, which are small random samples of each larger sample. Using replicates to control the release of telephone numbers ensures that the complete call procedures are followed for all numbers dialed. The use of replicates also improves the overall representativeness of the survey by helping to ensure that the regional distribution of numbers called is appropriate. Respondent Selection Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest male or female, 18 years of age or older who was at home at the time of the call (for half of the households interviewers ask to speak with the youngest male first, and for the other half the youngest female). If there is no eligible person of the requested gender at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender now at home. This method of selecting respondents within households improves participation among young people, who are often more difficult to interview 126 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org than older people because of their lifestyles, but this method is not a random sampling of members of the household. Unlike a landline phone, a cellphone is assumed in Pew Research polls to be a personal device. Interviewers ask if the person who answers the cellphone is 18 years of age or older to determine if the person is eligible to complete the survey; interviewers also confirm that the person is not driving and is in a safe place. For those in the cell sample, no effort is made to give other household members a chance to be interviewed. Although some people share cellphones, it is still uncertain whether the benefits of sampling among the users of a shared cellphone outweigh the disadvantages. Interviewing Interviewing was conducted under the direction of Abt SRBI. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Data collection was divided equally into three phases (A, B and C) with independent samples, non-overlapping interview dates and separate weighting. The questionnaire for each phase contained a core set of measures of political attitudes and values, political engagement and demographic characteristics, along with a set of unique questions about issues, lifestyle, media use and other topics covered in this series of reports. As many as seven attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled landline and cellphone number. Calls were staggered over times of day and days of the week (including at least one daytime call) to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. An effort was made to recontact most interview breakoffs or refusals to attempt to convert them to completed interviews. People reached on cellphones were offered $5 compensation for the minutes used to complete the survey. Additionally, most respondents to the survey were invited to join the newly created Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel (see below). Overall, the response rate was 11.2% for the landline sample and 9.8% for the cell sample. The response rate is the percentage of known or assumed residential households for which a completed interview was obtained, and is computed using the American Association for Public Opinion Researchs method for Response Rate 3 (RR3) as outlined in their Standard Definitions. Weighting The landline sample is first weighted by household size to account for the fact that people in larger households have a lower probability of being selected. In addition, the combined landline and cellphone sample is weighted to adjust for the overlap of the landline and cell frames (since people 127 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org with both a landline and cellphone have a greater probability of being included in the sample), including the relative size of each frame and each sample. The sample is then weighted to population parameters using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity, region, population density and telephone usage. The population parameters for gender, age, education, race/ethnicity and region are from the Census Bureaus 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) one-year estimates, and the parameter for population density is from the 2010 U.S. Census. The parameter for telephone usage (landline only, cellphone only, both landline and cellphone) is based on extrapolations from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. The specific weighting parameters are: gender by age, gender by education, age by education, race/ethnicity (including Hispanic origin and nativity), region, density and telephone usage; non-Hispanic whites are also balanced on age, education and region. The weighting procedure simultaneously balances the distributions of all weighting parameters. The final weights are trimmed to prevent individual cases from having a disproportionate influence on the final results. Weighting cannot eliminate every source of nonresponse bias. Nonetheless, properly-conducted public opinion polls have a good record of obtaining unbiased samples. Sampling Error Sampling error results from collecting data from some, rather than all, members of the population. The 2014 Political Polarization and Typology Survey of 10,013 adults had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points with a 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 out of every 100 samples of the same size and type, the results we obtain would vary by no more than plus or minus 1.1 percentage points from the result we would get if we could interview every member of the population. Thus, the chances are very high (95 out of 100) that any sample we draw will be within 1.1 points of the true population value. The margins of error reported and statistical tests of significance are adjusted to account for the surveys design effect, a measure of how much efficiency is lost from the weighting procedures. Many of the findings in this report are based on parts of the sample, such as the interviews in a single phase of the study (approximate sample size 3,333) or on subgroups such as Democrats or women. The sampling error for these will be larger than for the total sample. Sampling error for frequently-cited subgroups and for the individual phases are reported above. 128 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by the Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults living in households. Respondents who self- identify as internet users (representing 89% of U.S. adults) participate in the panel via monthly self-administered Web surveys, and those who do not use the internet participate via telephone or mail. The panel is being managed by Abt SRBI. Data in this report are drawn from two waves of the panel. The March-April wave (ATP W1) was conducted March 19-April 29, 2014 among 3,308 respondents (2,901 by Web and 407 by phone). The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 3,308 respondents is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. The May wave (ATP W3) of the panel was conducted May 5-27, 2014 among 3,243 respondents (2,906 by web and 337 by mail). The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 3,243 respondents is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. All current members of the American Trends Panel were originally recruited from the 2014 Political Polarization and Typology Survey, a large (n=10,013) national landline and cellphone random digit dial (RDD) survey conducted January 23rd to March 16th, 2014, in English and Spanish. At the end of that survey, respondents were invited to join the panel. The invitation was extended to all respondents who use the internet (from any location) and a random subsample of respondents who do not use the internet. 1
Of the 10,013 adults interviewed, 9,809 were invited to take part in the panel. A total of 5,338 agreed to participate and provided either a mailing address or an email address to which a welcome packet, a monetary incentive and future survey invitations could be sent. Panelists also receive a small monetary incentive after participating in each wave of the survey. The ATP data were weighted in a multi-step process that begins with a base weight incorporating the respondents original survey selection probability and the fact that some panelists were subsampled for invitation to the panel. Next, an adjustment was made for the fact that the propensity to join the panel varied across different groups in the sample. The final step in the weighting uses an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, telephone service, population density and region to parameters from the U.S. Census Bureau's
1 When data collection for the 2014 Political Polarization and Typology Survey began, non-internet users were subsampled at a rate of 25%, but a decision was made shortly thereafter to invite all non-internet users to join. In total, 83% of non-internet users were invited to join the panel. 129 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 2012 American Community Survey. It also adjusts for party affiliation using an average of the three most recent Pew Research Center general public telephone surveys, and for internet use using as a parameter a measure from the 2014 Survey of Political Polarization. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The Web component of the March-April wave had a response rate of 61% (2,901 responses among 4,753 Web-based individuals enrolled in the panel); the telephone component had a response rate of 70% (407 responses among 585 non-Web individuals enrolled in the panel). Taking account of the response rate for the 2014 Survey of Political Polarization (10.6%), the cumulative response rate for the March-April ATP wave is 3.6%. The Web component of the May wave had a response rate of 61% (2,906 responses among 4,740 Web-based individuals enrolled in the panel); the mail component had a response rate of 61% (337 responses among 553 non-Web individuals enrolled in the panel). Taking account of the response rate for the 2014 Survey of Political Polarization (10.6%), the cumulative response rate for the May ATP wave is 3.5%. The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the two panel waves: Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Pew Research Center, 2014 Sample Size and Margin of Error for American Trends Panel Waves Group March-April (ATP W1) May (ATP W3)
Unweighted sample size Plus or minus Unweighted sample size Plus or minus Total sample 3308 2.2 percentage points 3243 2.3 percentage points
Steadfast Conservatives 428 6.1 percentage points 427 6.2 percentage points Business Conservatives 441 6.0 percentage points 445 6.1 percentage points Young Outsiders 419 6.1 percentage points 415 6.3 percentage points Hard-Pressed Skeptics 288 7.4 percentage points 261 7.9 percentage points Next Generation Left 450 5.9 percentage points 445 6.1 percentage points Faith and Family Left 305 7.2 percentage points 301 7.4 percentage points Solid Liberals 823 4.4 percentage points 802 4.5 percentage points Bystanders 154 10.1 percentage points 147 10.6 percentage points 130 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2014 POLITICAL POLARIZATION AND TYPOLOGY SURVEY FINAL TOPLINE Phase A: January 23-February 9, 2014 N=3,341 Phase B: February 12-26, 2014 N=3,337 Phase C: February 27-March 16, 2014 N=3,335 Combined N=10,013
ASK ALL PHASE A: Q.A1 Generally, how would you say things are these days in your life -- would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK]
Dis- (VOL.) Approve Approve DK/Ref Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 44 49 7 Feb 14-23, 2014 44 48 8 Jan 15-19, 2014 (U) 43 49 8 Dec 3-8, 2013 (U) 45 49 6 Oct 30-Nov 6, 2013 41 53 6 Oct 9-13, 2013 43 51 6 Sep 4-8, 2013 (U) 44 49 8 Jul 17-21, 2013 46 46 7 Jun 12-16, 2013 49 43 7 May 1-5, 2013 51 43 6 Mar 13-17, 2013 47 46 8 Feb 13-18, 2013 (U) 51 41 7 Jan 9-13, 2013 52 40 7 Dec 5-9, 2012 55 39 6 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 50 43 7 Jun 7-17, 2012 47 45 8 May 9-Jun 3, 2012 46 42 11 Apr 4-15, 2012 46 45 9 Mar 7-11, 2012 50 41 9 Feb 8-12, 2012 47 43 10 Jan 11-16, 2012 44 48 8
Dis- (VOL.) Approve Approve DK/Ref Dec 7-11, 2011 46 43 11 Nov 9-14, 2011 46 46 8 Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 43 48 9 Aug 17-21, 2011 43 49 7 Jul 20-24, 2011 44 48 8 Jun 15-19, 2011 46 45 8 May 25-30, 2011 52 39 10 May 5-8, 2011 50 39 11 May 2, 2011 (WP) 56 38 6 Mar 30-Apr 3, 2011 47 45 8 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 51 39 10 Feb 2-7, 2011 49 42 9 Jan 5-9, 2011 46 44 10 Dec 1-5, 2010 45 43 13 Nov 4-7, 2010 44 44 12 Oct 13-18, 2010 46 45 9 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 47 44 9 Jul 21-Aug 5, 2010 47 41 12 Jun 8-28, 2010 48 41 11 Jun 16-20, 2010 48 43 9 May 6-9, 2010 47 42 11 131 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
1 In September 10-15, 2009 and other surveys noted with an asterisk, the question was worded Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in our country today?
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B3 And thinking about the local community where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in your local community today?
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B4 Thinking about the future of the United States, do you think the country's best years are ahead of us or behind us?
Gallup Feb 12-26 Dec 14-17 2014 2012 3
44 Ahead of us 47 49 Behind us 50 7 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 3
QUESTIONS B5, A6, A8, A9 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED NO QUESTIONS 7,10
ASK ALL: Next, Q.11 Would you say your overall opinion of [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly UNfavorable, or very unfavorable? [INTERVIEWERS: PROBE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN NEVER HEARD OF AND CANT RATE.] How about [NEXT ITEM]?
(VOL.) (VOL.) ------ Favorable ------ ----- Unfavorable ----- Never Cant rate/ Total Very Mostly Total Very Mostly heard of Ref a. The Republican Party Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 37 7 30 55 24 31 * 7 Dec 3-8, 2013 (U) 35 8 27 59 28 31 0 6 Oct 9-13, 2013 38 5 32 58 26 32 * 4 Jul 17-21, 2013 33 7 25 58 25 34 * 9 Jun 12-16, 2013 40 8 32 55 23 33 * 5 Jan 9-13, 2013 33 6 28 58 27 31 1 8 Dec 5-9, 2012 36 7 28 59 23 36 * 5 Sep 12-16, 2012 42 12 30 50 25 26 * 8 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 36 9 27 56 28 28 * 8 Mar 7-11, 2012 36 7 30 56 27 29 * 8 Jan 11-16, 2012 35 7 27 58 28 30 * 7 Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 36 7 29 55 27 28 * 9 Aug 17-21, 2011 34 5 29 59 27 32 * 7 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 42 9 32 51 22 28 1 7 Feb 2-7, 2011 43 8 35 48 19 29 * 9 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 43 8 35 49 21 28 * 8 July 1-5, 2010 39 10 29 49 24 25 * 12
2 For January 10-14, 2001 through January 15-18, 2007 the Gallup question read, All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in your local community? 3 In December 2012, Gallup asked When you think about the future of the United States, which do you agree with more: the country's best years are ahead of us or the country's best years are behind us? 134 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK PHASE B ONLY: i.B The Federal Reserve Feb 12-Feb 26, 2014 47 10 37 37 14 23 2 14 Oct 9-13, 2013 57 12 45 32 12 20 1 10
ASK PHASE B ONLY: j.B The Environmental Protection Agency, the EPA Feb 12-Feb 26, 2014 57 14 43 33 14 19 2 8 Oct 9-13, 2013 62 15 47 30 12 19 2 6 Mar 18-21, 2010 57 11 46 32 12 20 1 10 October, 1997 69 14 55 27 7 20 1 3 Roper, August 1987 62 19 43 30 7 23 -- 8 Roper, August 1986 59 18 41 31 7 24 -- 10 Roper, August 1985 58 19 39 31 11 20 -- 11 Roper, August 1984 68 27 41 26 9 17 -- 6
Q.11at-Q.B12 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED NO QUESTIONS 13-24
137 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL: Q.25 I'm going to read you some pairs of statements that will help us understand how you feel about a number of things. As I read each pair, tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views even if neither is exactly right. The first pair is [READ AND RANDOMIZE PAIRS BUT NOT STATEMENTS WITHIN EACH PAIR]. Next, [NEXT PAIR] [IF NECESSARY: Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right?]
4
In Feb 8-12, 2012 survey, question was asked as a stand-alone item.
a. Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient Government often does a better job than people give it credit for (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 56 40 4 Dec 3-8, 2013 55 39 6 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 55 39 6 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 61 35 4 December, 2008 53 40 7 October, 2008 57 35 8 September, 2005 56 39 5 December, 2004 47 45 8 June, 2003 48 46 6 September, 2000 52 40 8 August, 1999 51 43 6 June, 1997 59 36 5 October, 1996 56 39 5 April, 1995 63 34 3 October, 1994 64 32 4 July, 1994 66 31 3
b. Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 47 47 5 Feb 8-12, 2012 4 40 52 7 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 47 45 8 December, 2008 47 43 10 October, 2008 50 38 12 January, 2008 41 50 9 December, 2004 49 41 10 July, 2002 54 36 10 February, 2002 50 41 9 August, 1999 48 44 8 October, 1996 45 46 9 October, 1995 45 50 5 April, 1995 43 51 6 October, 1994 38 55 7 July, 1994 41 54 5
c. Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don't go far enough to help them live decently (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 44 47 9 Dec 3-8, 2013 43 43 14 138 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
NO ITEM e.
Q.25 CONTINUED
Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don't go far enough to help them live decently (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref May 1-5, 2013 45 44 11 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 41 47 12 January, 2008 34 52 14 December, 2005 35 51 14 September, 2005 38 51 11 December, 2004 34 52 14 June, 2003 34 55 11 August, 1999 45 42 13 June, 1997 45 42 13 October, 1996 46 40 14 October, 1995 54 36 10 April, 1995 52 39 9 October, 1994 48 41 11 July, 1994 53 39 8
d. The government should do more to help needy Americans, even if it means going deeper into debt The government today can't afford to do much more to help the needy (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 43 51 6 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 41 51 8 December, 2008 55 35 10 October, 2008 51 37 12 April, 2007 63 28 9 December, 2004 57 33 10 August, 1999 57 35 8 October, 1996 46 44 10 April, 1996 49 44 7 October, 1995 47 47 6 April, 1995 46 47 7 October, 1994 50 43 7 July, 1994 48 47 5
f. Racial discrimination is the main reason why many black people can't get ahead these days Blacks who can't get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their own condition (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 27 63 10 Jan 4-8, 2012 21 60 19 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 26 60 14 Oct 28-Nov 30, 2009 18 67 15 September, 2005 26 59 15 December, 2004 27 60 13 June, 2003 24 64 12 September, 2000 31 54 15 August, 1999 28 59 13 139 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.25 CONTINUED
Racial discrimination is the main reason why many black people can't get ahead these days Blacks who can't get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their own condition (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref October, 1997 25 61 14 June, 1997 33 54 13 October, 1996 28 58 14 October, 1995 37 53 10 April, 1995 34 56 10 October, 1994 34 54 12 July, 1994 32 59 9
g. Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 57 35 8 Dec 3-8, 2013 53 35 11 Oct 30-Nov 6, 2013 49 49 11 Mar 13-17, 2013 49 49 10 Jan 4-8, 2012 48 48 15 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 45 45 12 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 44 44 14 Jul 21-Aug 5, 2010 42 42 13 Jun 16-20, 2010 39 39 11 Oct 28-Nov 30, 2009 46 46 14 October, 2006 41 41 18 March, 2006 41 41 7 December, 2005 45 44 11 December, 2004 45 44 11 June, 2003 46 44 10 September, 2000 50 38 12 August, 1999 46 44 10 October, 1997 41 48 11 June, 1997 41 48 11 April, 1997 38 52 10 June, 1996 37 54 9 July, 1994 31 63 6
h. Society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority Society is just as well off if people have priorities other than marriage and children (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 46 50 5
i. The best way to ensure peace is through military strength Good diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 30 62 8 Dec 3-8, 2013 31 57 12 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 31 58 11 October, 2006 28 57 15 December, 2004 30 55 15 140 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.25 CONTINUED
The best way to ensure peace is through military strength Good diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref August, 1999 33 55 12 October, 1996 36 53 11 October, 1995 36 59 5 April, 1995 35 58 7 October, 1994 40 52 8 July, 1994 36 58 6
j. U.S. efforts to solve problems around the world usually end up making things worse Problems in the world would be even worse without U.S. involvement (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 40 53 7
k. Most people who want to get ahead can make it if they're willing to work hard Hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 65 32 3 Jan 15-19, 2014 (U) 60 38 3 Dec 7-11, 2011 58 40 3 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 64 33 3 March, 2006 64 33 3 December, 2005 64 33 3 December, 2004 68 28 4 September, 2000 73 24 3 August, 1999 74 23 3 July, 1994 68 30 2
l. Success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside of our control Everyone has it in their own power to succeed (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 16 80 4 Dec 3-8, 2013 18 76 7 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 19 75 5 Oct 28-Nov 30, 2009 12 82 6 December, 2004 16 78 6 August, 1999 15 80 5 July, 1994 18 79 3
m. Too much power is concentrated in the hands of a few large companies The largest companies do NOT have too much power (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 78 18 4 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 78 16 6 October, 2008 78 15 7 December, 2004 77 16 7 July, 2002 80 12 8 February, 2002 77 17 6 August, 1999 77 17 6 October, 1996 75 18 7 141 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.25 CONTINUED
Too much power is concentrated in the hands of a few large companies The largest companies do NOT have too much power (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref October, 1995 77 18 5 April, 1995 75 20 5 October, 1994 73 20 7 July, 1994 76 19 5
n. Business corporations make too much profit Most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 56 39 4 Mar 13-17, 2013 53 41 6 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 54 39 7 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 54 39 6 December, 2008 58 35 7 October, 2008 59 33 8 December, 2005 61 33 6 December, 2004 53 39 8 June, 2003 51 42 7 July, 2002 58 33 9 February, 2002 54 39 7 September, 2000 54 38 8 August, 1999 52 42 6 June, 1997 51 43 6 October, 1996 51 42 7 October, 1995 53 43 4 April, 1995 51 44 5 October, 1994 50 44 6 July, 1994 52 43 5 ASK ALL PHASE B:
o. Elected officials in Washington lose touch with the people pretty quickly Elected officials in Washington try hard to stay in touch with voters back home (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 12-26, 2014 79 17 4 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 72 22 5 December, 2004 66 26 8 September, 2000 66 27 7 August, 1999 68 26 6 October, 1996 69 25 6 April, 1996 72 23 5 October, 1995 73 24 3 April, 1995 76 21 3 October, 1994 74 22 4 July, 1994 71 25 4 142 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.25 CONTINUED
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B26 And in your view, has this country been successful more because of its [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] or more because of its [ITEM]?
Feb 12-26 2014 51 Ability to change 44 Reliance on long-standing principles 5 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C26 Next, [READ AND RANDOMIZE]
Americans are united and Americans are greatly divided in agreement about the when it comes to the (VOL.) most important values most important values DK/Ref Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 26 71 3 Gallup/USA Today: Nov 9-12, 2012 29 69 2 CNN/ORC: Aug 24-25, 2011 27 73 1 Gallup/CNN/USA Today: November, 2004 34 65 1 Gallup/CNN/USA Today: January, 2004 45 53 2 Gallup/CNN/USA Today: September, 2002 69 30 1 Gallup/CNN/USA Today: November, 2001 74 24 2 WaPo: December, 1998 34 62 4 WaPo/KFF/Harvard: August, 1998 31 66 3 General Social Survey: 1993 5 32 63 5
5 1993 General Social Survey asked: There is a lot of discussion today about whether Americans are divided or united. Some say that Americans are united and in agreement about the most important values. Others think that Americans are greatly divided when it comes to the most important values. What is your view about this? Response options were not randomized. ASK ALL PHASE C:
p. Most elected officials care what people like me think Most elected officials don't care what people like me think (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 20 78 2 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 26 69 5 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 29 68 4 December, 2004 32 63 5 June, 2003 33 62 5 September, 2000 39 55 6 August, 1999 35 60 5 June, 1997 28 67 5 October, 1996 38 58 4 October, 1995 33 64 3 April, 1995 32 64 4 October, 1994 29 68 3 July, 1994 34 64 2 143 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL: OFTVOTE How often would you say you vote...[READ IN ORDER]?
6 Trends for January, 1992 and January, 1989 are based on general public. 145 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
OFTVOTE CONTINUED
Always Nearly always Part of the time Seldom (VOL.) Never vote (VOL.) Other (VOL.) DK/Ref September, 1988 51 40 6 2 * 1 * May, 1987 43 43 9 3 1 1 *
Q.26 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
ASK ALL PHASE B: Thinking about the next congressional elections that will be coming up about a year from now Q.B27 If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Partys candidate or the Democratic Partys candidate for Congress in your district? ASK IF OTHER DONT KNOW/REFUSED (Q.B27=3,9): Q.B27a As of TODAY, would you LEAN more to the Republican or the Democrat?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=2,681]:
(VOL.) Rep/ Dem/ Other/ Lean Rep Lean Dem DK/Ref 2014 Election Feb 12-26, 2014 44 46 10 Dec 3-8, 2013 (U) 44 48 8 Oct 9-13, 2013 43 49 8 2012 Election Jun 7-17, 2012 43 47 10 Aug 17-21, 2011 44 48 8 2010 Election Oct 27-30, 2010 43 44 12 Oct 13-18, 2010 46 42 12 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 44 47 9 Jul 21-Aug 5, 2010 44 45 11 Jun 16-20, 2010 45 45 10 Mar 11-21, 2010 44 44 12 Feb 3-9, 2010 42 45 13 Jan 6-10, 2010 44 46 10 Oct 28-Nov 8, 2009 42 47 11 Aug 20-27, 2009 44 45 10 2008 Election June, 2008 37 52 11 2006 Election November, 2006 40 48 12 Late October, 2006 38 49 13 Early October, 2006 38 51 11 September, 2006 39 50 11 August, 2006 41 50 9 June, 2006 39 51 10 April, 2006 41 51 8 February, 2006 41 50 9 Mid-September, 2005 40 52 8 2004 Election June, 2004 41 48 11 2002 Election Early November, 2002 42 46 12 Early October, 2002 44 46 10 Early September, 2002 44 46 10 June, 2002 44 46 10 February, 2002 46 45 9 Early November, 2001 44 44 12
QUESTIONS C28, A29 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED NO QUESTIONS 30-39
ASK ALL: Q.40 Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs...[READ]?
Most of Some of Only now Hardly (VOL.) the time the time and then at all DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 48 29 14 9 * Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 (RVs) 69 21 7 3 * Oct 24-28, 2012 51 27 13 9 1 Oct 4-7, 2012 (RVs) 65 23 8 4 * Sep 12-16, 2012 (RVs) 60 26 10 4 * Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 47 28 15 8 1 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 50 29 14 6 1 Oct 27-30, 2010 (RVs) 56 29 10 5 * Oct 13-18, 2010 49 28 12 10 1 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 7 52 25 13 10 1
7 In the Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 survey, a wording experiment was conducted with one half of respondents asked the question wording shown above, and the other half was asked: Some people seem to follow whats going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether theres an election or not. Others arent that interested. Would you say you follow 147 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B40a Some people say they are basically content with the federal government, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel?
whats going on in government and public affairs No significant differences were found between questions and the combined results are shown above. All surveys prior to Sep 2010 used the longer question wording. 148 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.40b How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? Just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time?
Just about Most of Only some (VOL.) (VOL.) always the time of the time Never DK/Ref Feb 12-26, 2014 3 21 68 7 1 Oct 9-13, 2013 3 16 68 12 1 Jan 9-13, 2013 3 23 67 6 2 Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 3 17 72 7 2 Aug 17-21, 2011 3 16 72 8 1 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 4 25 65 4 2 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 3 21 65 10 1 Apr 1-5, 2010 5 20 61 13 1 Mar 11-21, 2010 3 19 65 11 2 January, 2007 3 28 63 5 1 February, 2006 4 30 59 6 1 Mid-September, 2005 3 28 63 4 2 Mid-March, 2004 4 32 59 4 1 February, 2000 5 35 56 3 1 May, 1999 3 28 62 5 2 February, 1999 4 27 64 4 1 November, 1998 8 4 22 61 11 2 February, 1998 5 29 61 4 1 October, 1997 3 36 59 2 *
ASK ALL: Just as far as you know Q.41 Which political party has a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? [IF NECESSARY: Just as far as you know] [INTERVIEWER INSTRUCTION: DO NOT PROBE, PUNCH 9 IF RESPONDENT SAYS THEY DONT KNOW]
The Republican Party The Democratic Party (VOL.) DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 58 30 12 May 9-Jun 3, 2012 9 54 22 24 Jun 8-28, 2010 12 70 19 Oct 1-4, 2009 13 75 12 Jun 18-21, 2009 12 76 12 Mar 26-29, 2009 12 86 2 Dec 4-7, 2008 11 82 7 Feb 28-Mar 2, 2008 26 70 4 Aug 16-19, 2007 19 78 3 February, 2007 10 76 14
8 The November, 1998 survey was conducted Oct. 26-Dec. 1, 1998. The question asked, How much of the time do you trust the government in Washington to do the right thing? Just about always, most the time, or only some of the time? 9 In June 2012 and earlier, question read: Do you happen to know which political party has a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives? [RANDOMIZE: Democrats or Republicans] 149 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.41 TREND FOR COMPARISON 10 : The Republican Party The Democratic Party (VOL.) DK/Ref May, 2008 15 53 32 Late October, 2006 58 4 38 April, 2006 64 6 30 April, 2004 56 8 36 June, 2001 31 34 35 August, 1999 55 8 37 December, 1998 56 11 33 June, 1997 50 6 44 April, 1996 70 8 22 June, 1995 73 5 22 July, 1994 18 60 22 February, 1994 42 58 n/a September, 1992 9 46 45 June, 1992 12 44 44 May, 1992 12 49 39 May, 1989 16 68 16
Correct answers in bold.
ASK ALL: Q.42 Which political party has a majority in the U.S. Senate [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? [INTERVIEWER INSTRUCTION: DO NOT PROBE, PUNCH 9 IF RESPONDENT SAYS THEY DONT KNOW]
The Republican Party The Democratic Party (VOL.) DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 30 54 16 TREND FOR COMPARISON 11 : June, 2003 63 10 27 June, 2001 12 56 32 September, 1992 10 57 33 June, 1992 17 52 31 May, 1992 17 55 28
Correct answers in bold.
ASK ALL PHASE A: Q.43 Which political party is more in favor of raising taxes on higher income people [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? [IF NECESSARY: Just as far as you know] [INTERVIEWER INSTRUCTION: DO NOT PROBE, PUNCH 9 IF RESPONDENT SAYS THEY DONT KNOW]
Jan 23-Feb 9 2014 21 The Republican Party [OR] 70 The Democratic Party 9 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
NO QUESTIONS 44-47
10 In May 2008 and from May 1992 through Late October 2006, this was asked as an open-ended question, without offering response options. In May 1989 the question was worded: As a result of the election last year, which party now has the most members in the U.S. House of Representatives in Washington? 11 In June 2003 and earlier, question read: Do you happen to know which political party has a majority in the U.S. Senate? The question was asked as an open-ended question, without offering response options. 150 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
RANDOMIZE Q.C48/Q.C49 ASK ALL PHASE C: Now some questions about your views of the political parties Q.C48 Do you think the Republican Party [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] or not?
(VOL.) Yes No DK/Ref a. Is too extreme Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 52 43 5 Jul 17-21, 2013 48 46 6 Feb 13-18, 2013 52 42 5 TREND FOR COMPARISON Please tell me whether you think each of the following description applies or does not apply to the Republican Party too extreme CNN/Gallup: February, 1999 56 42 3
b. Cares about the middle class Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 42 54 4
c. Is too willing to cut government programs, even when they work Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 57 35 8
RANDOMIZE Q.C48/Q.C49 ASK ALL PHASE C: [Next,] Q.C49 Do you think the Democratic Party [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] or not?
(VOL.) Yes No DK/Ref
a. Is too extreme Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 39 56 5 Jul 17-21, 2013 41 54 5 Feb 13-18, 2013 39 56 6 TREND FOR COMPARISON Please tell me whether you think each of the following descriptions applies or does not apply to the Democratic Party too extreme CNN/Gallup: February, 1999 39 57 3
b. Cares about the middle class Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 57 38 4
c. Too often sees government as the only way to solve problems Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 59 35 6
151 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL: Q.50 Now I'm going to read a few more pairs of statements. Again, just tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views even if neither is exactly right. The first pair is [READ AND RANDOMIZE ITEMS Q THRU Z FOLLOWED BY RANDOMIZED ITEMS AA THRU HH; RANDOMIZE PAIRS BUT NOT STATEMENTS WITHIN EACH PAIR]. Next, [NEXT PAIR] [IF NECESSARY: Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right?]
q. This country should do whatever it takes to protect the environment This country has gone too far in its efforts to protect the environment (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 71 25 4 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 71 24 5 December, 2004 77 18 5 September, 2000 78 17 5 August, 1999 80 15 5 October, 1996 77 18 5 October, 1995 77 20 3 April, 1995 74 22 4 October, 1994 77 19 4 July, 1994 78 19 3
r. Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 39 56 5 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 39 53 7 November, 2007 27 63 10 July, 2006 31 57 12 March, 2006 29 65 6 December, 2005 37 56 7 December, 2004 31 60 9 September, 2000 31 61 8 August, 1999 28 65 7 October, 1996 30 63 7 October, 1995 35 61 4 April, 1995 39 57 4 October, 1994 32 62 6 July, 1994 33 62 5 ASK ALL PHASE B: s. There are no real limits to growth in this country today People in this country should learn to live with less (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 12-26, 2014 49 46 5 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 39 52 9 December, 2008 40 53 7 October, 2008 41 49 10 December, 2004 51 41 8 August, 1999 54 40 6 July, 1994 51 45 4 152 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.50 CONTINUED
12 In October, 2006 and earlier, both answer choices began: Homosexuality is a way of life that should be ASK ALL PHASE C: t. As Americans, we can always find ways to solve our problems and get what we want This country can't solve many of its important problems (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 27-Mar 16 2014 47 50 3 Dec 7-11, 2011 60 36 3 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 57 37 6 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 54 42 5 December, 2008 68 27 5 October, 2008 64 29 7 December, 2004 59 36 5 September, 2000 59 36 5 August, 1999 63 32 5 July, 1994 52 45 3 ASK ALL:
u. Homosexuality should be accepted by society Homosexuality should be discouraged by society
(VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 62 31 7 May 1-5, 2013 60 31 8 Mar 13-17, 2013 57 36 7 Jan 4-8, 2012 56 32 12 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 58 33 8 October, 2006 12 51 38 11 December, 2004 49 44 7 June, 2003 47 45 8 September, 2000 50 41 9 August, 1999 49 44 7 October, 1997 46 48 6 June, 1997 45 50 5 October, 1996 44 49 7 April, 1996 44 49 7 October, 1995 45 50 5 April, 1995 47 48 5 October, 1994 46 48 6 July, 1994 46 49 5 ASK ALL PHASE C: v. Its not the governments job to protect people from themselves Sometimes laws to protect people from themselves are necessary (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 27-Mar 16 2014 34 62 4 ASK ALL PHASE A:
w. Religion is a very important part of my life Religion is not that important to me (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Feb 9, 2014 66 33 1 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 71 27 2 December, 2004 74 24 2 153 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
NO ITEM x
NO ITEM cc
Q.50 CONTINUED
Religion is a very important part of my life Religion is not that important to me (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref September, 2000 75 23 2 August, 1999 75 22 2 ASK ALL:
y.
I'm generally satisfied with the way things are going for me financially I'm not very satisfied with my financial situation (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 51 47 1 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 47 51 2 October, 2006 59 40 1 December, 2005 56 42 2 December, 2004 59 39 2 September, 2000 59 39 2 August, 1999 64 34 2 October, 1996 57 41 2 April, 1996 57 42 1 July, 1994 56 43 1
z. I often don't have enough money to make ends meet Paying the bills is generally not a problem for me (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 40 58 2 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 43 54 3 December, 2005 40 56 4 December, 2004 35 62 3 September, 2000 37 59 4 August, 1999 29 68 3 July, 1994 36 63 1
aa. It IS NOT necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values It IS necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 53 45 2 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 49 48 3 December, 2004 46 51 3 March, 2002 50 47 3
bb. Using overwhelming military force is the best way to defeat terrorism around the world Relying too much on military force to defeat terrorism creates hatred that leads to more terrorism (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 37 57 7 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 38 52 10 December, 2004 39 51 10 154 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.50 CONTINUED
13 Item was asked Jan. 29-Mar 16, 2014 (N=9,459). 14 In December 2004, both answer choices read to give up more privacy and freedom.
dd. The growing number of newcomers from other countries threatens traditional American customs and values The growing number of newcomers from other countries strengthens American society (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 35 59 6 Mar 13-17, 2013 43 52 6 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 39 52 9 Jul 21-Aug 5, 2010 38 49 13 Jun 16-20, 2010 44 44 12 November, 2007 50 40 10 March, 2006 48 45 7 December, 2004 40 50 10
ee. Its best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs We should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 35 60 5 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 33 58 8 December, 2004 44 49 7
ff. Americans need to be willing to give up privacy and freedom in order to be safe from terrorism Americans shouldnt have to give up privacy and freedom in order to be safe from terrorism (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 29-Mar 16, 2014 13 22 74 4 Jan 15-19, 2014 (U) 26 70 4 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 26 68 6 December, 2004 14 35 60 5 ASK ALL PHASE B: gg. The government should do more to protect morality in society I worry the government is getting too involved in the issue of morality (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 12-26, 2014 33 62 5 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 35 54 10 December, 2004 41 51 8 ASK ALL:
hh. Our country has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites Our country needs to continue making changes to give blacks equal rights with whites (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 49 46 5 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 49 45 6 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 48 45 8 Oct 28-Nov 30, 2009 47 43 10 155 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL: Q.51 Next, [ASK ITEM ii FIRST, FOLLOWED BY RANDOMIZED ITEMS jj THROUGH mm AND RANDOMIZE STATEMENTS WITHIN PAIRS]. [IF NECESSARY: Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right?] Next, [NEXT PAIR]
NO ITEM nn
15 Item was asked Jan. 29-Feb.9, 2014 (N=2,787). 16 In January 2014 and earlier, response items were not randomized. 17 In January 2013, question asked as a stand-alone item. ASK ALL PHASE A:
ii. Government should do more to solve problems Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Feb 9, 2014 45 51 4 Sep 12-16, 2012 44 49 6 Nov 4-7, 2010 43 48 9 Jun 8-28, 2010 43 47 10 Jan 14-27, 2010 (SDT) 45 47 8
jj. Children are better off when a parent stays home to focus on the family Children are just as well off when their parents work outside the home (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Feb 9, 2014 60 35 5 ASK ALL: kk. Government aid to the poor does more harm than good, by making people too dependent on government assistance Government aid to the poor does more good than harm, because people cant get out of poverty until their basic needs are met (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 48 47 6 Jan 15-19, 2014 (U) 44 49 7 ASK ALL PHASE A:
ll. The economic system in this country unfairly favors powerful interests The economic system in this country is generally fair to most Americans (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 29-Feb 9, 2014 15 62 34 4
mm. I like elected officials who make compromises with people they disagree with I like elected officials who stick to their positions (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Jan 23-Feb 9, 2014 56 39 5 Jan 15-19, 2014 16 49 48 3 Jan 9-13, 2013 17 50 44 6 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 40 54 7 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 40 55 5 156 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.51 CONTINUED
NO QUESTION 52
ASK ALL PHASE A: Q.53 In your opinion, which is generally more often to blame if a person is poor? Lack of effort on his or her own part, or circumstances beyond his or her control?
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B54 Next, [IF NECESSARY: Which comes closer to your own views even if neither is exactly right]. [READ DO NOT RANDOMIZE STATEMENTS]
18 In January 2012 and earlier, response items were not randomized. ASK ALL PHASE C:
oo. The police should be allowed to stop and search anyone who fits the general description of a crime suspect The police should not be able to search people just because they think they look suspicious (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 41 56 3
pp. Wall Street HELPS the American economy more than it hurts Wall Street HURTS the American economy more than it helps (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 45 42 13 Jan 4-8, 2012 18 36 48 16 Dec 7-11, 2011 36 51 13 Mar 8-14, 2011 38 47 15 The Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence among its believers The Islamic religion does not encourage violence more than others (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Feb 12-26, 2014 38 50 12 May 1-5, 2013 42 46 13 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 40 42 18 Aug 19-22, 2010 35 42 24 157 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B55 Should the U.S. Supreme Court base its rulings on its understanding of what the U.S. Constitution meant as it was originally written, or should the court base its rulings on its understanding of what the US Constitution means in current times?
(VOL.) What it meant What it means Somewhere (VOL.) as originally written in current times in between DK/Ref Feb 12-26, 2014 46 49 2 3 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 45 50 2 4 Kaiser/Harvard/WaPo: October, 2010 50 46 1 3 ABC News/WaPo: July, 2005 46 50 3 1
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C56 Which of these statements best describes your opinion about the United States? [READ IN ORDER; REVERSE ORDER FOR HALF OF SAMPLE]
Feb 27-Mar 16 Mar 8-14 2014 2011 28 The U.S. stands above all other countries in the world. 38 58 The U.S. is one of the greatest countries in the world, along with some others 53 12 There are other countries that are better than the U.S. 8 1 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 2
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C57 From what youve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not? ASK IF EARTH IS GETTING WARMER (Q.C57=1): Q.C58a Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer [READ AND RANDOMIZE]?
---------------------Yes, solid evidence--------------------- (VOL.) Mostly because of Mostly because of Mixed/ human activity such natural patterns in the (VOL.) some (VOL.) Total as burning fossil fuels earths environment DK/Ref No evidence DK/Ref Feb 27-Mar 16, 2014 61 40 18 3 35 1 3 Oct 9-13, 2013 67 44 18 4 26 2 5 Mar 13-17, 2013 69 42 23 4 27 1 4 Oct 4-7, 2012 67 42 19 6 26 1 6 Nov 9-14, 2011 63 38 18 6 28 1 8 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 58 36 18 5 34 2 5 Oct 13-18, 2010 59 34 18 6 32 1 8 Sep 30-Oct 4, 2009 57 36 16 6 33 2 8 April, 2008 71 47 18 6 21 3 5 January, 2007 77 47 20 10 16 1 6 August, 2006 77 47 20 10 17 1 5 July, 2006 79 50 23 6 17 1 3 June, 2006 70 41 21 8 20 1 9
Q.B54 CONTINUED
The Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence among its believers The Islamic religion does not encourage violence more than others (VOL.) Both/Neither/ DK/Ref Aug 11-17, 2009 38 45 16 August, 2007 45 39 16 July, 2005 36 47 17 July, 2004 46 37 17 Mid-July, 2003 44 41 15 March, 2002 25 51 24 158 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C57 From what youve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not? ASK IF EARTH IS NOT GETTING WARMER (Q.C57=2): Q.C58b Do you think that we just dont know enough yet about whether the Earth is getting warmer or do you think its just not happening?
Feb 27-Mar 16 Oct 9-13 2014 2013 19
35 NET No solid evidence (Q.C57) 26 17 Just dont know enough yet 12 17 Just not happening 13 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 1 65 Solid evidence/Mixed/some evidence/Dont know (Q.C57) 74
NO QUESTIONS 59-99
ASK ALL: Q.100 Have you ever contributed money to a candidate running for public office or to a group working to elect a candidate? ASK IF HAVE EVER CONTRIBUTED MONEY (Q.100=1): Q.101 Have you done this over the last two years, that is, during or since the 2012 elections, or not? [IF NECESSARY: Have you contributed money to any candidates or political groups over the last two years, or not?]
Jan 23-Mar 16 Jan 2-5 2014 2014 30 Yes, have ever contributed 24 15 Yes, in last two years 14 16 No, not in last two years 10 * Dont know/Refused (VOL.) * 69 No, have never contributed 75 1 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 1
ASK IF HAVE CONTRIBUTED MONEY DURING 2012/2013 (Q.101=1): Q.102 Over the last two years, would you say all of those contributions added up to more than $100 or less than that? ASK IF MORE THAN $100 (Q.102=1): Q.102a And did they add up to more than $250 or not?
BASED ON TOTAL:
Jan 23-Mar 16 Jan 2-5 2014 2014 8 More than $100 9 4 More than $250 -- 4 Less than $250 -- * Dont know/Refused (VOL.) -- 6 Less than $100 5 * Dont know/Refused (VOL.) *
Havent donated in last two years 85 (Q.100=2,9 OR Q,101=2,9) 86
NO QUESTIONS 103-104
19 Prior to October 2013, follow-up question was not asked of those who said there was no solid evidence. 159 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL: Q.105 [IF Q100=1: And again,] just thinking about the last two yearsPlease tell me if you have done any of the following. First, over the last two years have you [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE], or not? And over the last two years have you [INSERT NEXT ITEM], or not?
Yes, have done this No, have not done this (VOL.) within last two years within last two years DK/Ref
a. Worked or volunteered for a political candidate or campaign Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 8 92 *
b. Contacted any elected official Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 28 72 *
NO ITEM c
d. Attended a campaign event Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 15 84 *
ASK ALL PHASE A: Q.106 And have you, yourself, ever run for federal, state, or local elected office, or not?
Jan 23-Feb 9 2014 2 Yes, have run for elected office 98 No, have not run for elected office * Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
ASK ALL PHASE B: Next, Q.B106 Do you favor or oppose legalized casino gambling in your state?
WP/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard NBC/AP Feb 12-26 Jul 29-Aug 18 Aug 7-8 2014 1998 1978 20
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B107 Right now, which ONE of the following do you think should be the more important priority for addressing Americas energy supply? [READ AND RANDOMIZE]?
20 In 1978, NBC News and the Associated Press asked Would you favor or oppose legalized casino gambling in your state? Developing alternative sources such as, wind, solar and hydrogen technology Expanding exploration and production of oil, coal and natural gas (VOL.) Both should be given equal priority (VOL.) DK/Ref Feb 12-26, 2014 65 28 5 2 Sep 4-8, 2013 58 34 6 3 Feb 13-18, 2013 (U) 54 34 7 4 Oct 24-28, 2012 47 39 9 5 Mar 7-11, 2012 52 39 5 4 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 63 29 6 2 160 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B108 Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B109 Thinking about our economic and trade policy toward China, which is more important [READ AND RANDOMIZE]?
Feb 12-26 Oct 4-7 Mar 8-14 2014 2012 2011 51 Building a stronger relationship with China on economic issues 42 53 41 Getting tougher with China on economic issues 49 40 8 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 9 7
21 In May 1-5, 2013, Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012, Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011, July 21-Aug 5, 2010, Aug 11-17, 2009, August 2008, August 2007, Early January 2007, Early November 2006, March 2006, July 2005, December 2004, Early February 2004, November 2003, Mid-July 2003, March 2001 and June 1996 the question was asked as part of a list of items. In Jun 7-17, 2012, Apr 4-15, 2012, August 2009, April 2009, May 2008 and June 2008, the question read allowing gay and lesbian couples; all other instances read allowing gays and lesbians. 161 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B110 Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C111 How much, if anything, have you read or heard about COMMON CORE, a set of education standards for students in grades K-12? Have you heard [READ]
Feb 27-Mar 16 2014 18 A lot 41 A little 40 Nothing at all 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
ASK IF HEARD OF COMMON CORE (Q.C111=1,2) [N=2,139]: Q.C112 From what youve read and heard, do you strongly favor, favor, oppose or strongly oppose the Common Core education standards?
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C115 In general, do you think that free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing or a bad thing for the United States?
Feb 27-Mar 16 Feb 22-Mar 1 Mar 31-Apr 21 2014 2011 2009 59 Good thing 48 52 30 Bad thing 41 34 10 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 12 14
TREND FOR COMPARISON: In general, do you think that free trade agreements like NAFTA and the policies of the World Trade Organization have been a good thing or a bad thing for the United States?
22 In December 2006, December 2004, July 2004 and March 2004, the question wording asked about: free trade agreements like NAFTA and the World Trade Organization, and did not mention policies of the World Trade Organization. In October 2005 the question asked: So far, do you think that NAFTA has been a good thing or a bad thing from a U.S. point of view? In December 2003 the question wording asked about free trade agreements like NAFTA and the WTO; full names of the organizations were read out only if the respondent was uncertain. In Early September 2001 and earlier the question asked about: NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement... 163 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C116 Do you approve or disapprove of the health care law passed by Barack Obama and Congress in 2010? ASK IF APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE (Q.C116=1,2): Q.C116a Do you [approve/disapprove] very strongly, or not so strongly?
Q.C116/C116a TREND FOR COMPARISON: As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care bills being discussed in Congress? IF FAVOR OR OPPOSE: Do you (favor/oppose) these health care bills very strongly, or not so strongly?
Generally Very Not so (VOL.) Generally Very Not so (VOL.) (VOL.) favor strongly strongly DK/Ref oppose strongly strongly DK/Ref DK/Ref Mar 11-21, 2010 40 -- -- -- 47 -- -- -- 13 Mar 10-14, 2010 38 -- -- -- 48 -- -- -- 13 Feb 3-9, 2010 38 -- -- -- 50 -- -- -- 12 Jan 6-10, 2010 39 23 14 2 48 36 11 1 13 Dec 9-13, 2009 24 35 -- -- -- 48 -- -- -- 17 Nov 12-15, 2009 42 -- -- -- 39 -- -- -- 19 Oct 28-Nov 8, 2009 38 -- -- -- 47 -- -- -- 15 Sep 30-Oct 4, 2009 34 20 13 1 47 35 11 1 19 Sep 10-15, 2009 42 29 11 2 44 34 10 * 14 Aug 20-27, 2009 39 25 13 1 46 34 12 1 15 Jul 22-26, 2009 38 -- -- -- 44 -- -- -- 18
23 Prior to September 2013, the question asked about the health care legislation. In addition, the reference to when the law was passed has changed over time: January 2011 referenced the legislation passed last year, November 2010 used earlier this year, September through July, 2010 used in March, and April 2010 used last month. 24 From December 9-13, 2009 and earlier, questions asked about health care proposals rather than health care bills. 164 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK IF DISAPPROVE (Q.C116=2): Q.C117 What do you think elected officials who oppose the health care law should do now that the law has started to take effect? Should they [READ AND RANDOMIZE] or should they [ITEM]?
BASED ON TOTAL PHASE C:
(U) (U) Feb 27-Mar 16 Dec 3-8 Sep 4-8 2014 2013 25 2013 53 NET Disapprove of health care law (Q.C116) 54 53 30 Do what they can to make the law work as well as possible 29 27 19 Do what they can to make the law fail 19 23 4 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 6 4 47 Approve of health care law/ Dont know (Q.C116) 46 47
NO QUESTIONS 118-120
QUESTION 121/121a/121b PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
RANDOMIZE IN BLOCKS: Q121/121a/b, Q122/122a/b, Q123/a/b, Q124/a/b, Q125/a/b, Q126/a/b ASK ALL PHASE A: Q.122 Which comes closer to your view about how to handle immigrants who are now living in the U.S. illegally? Should they [READ AND RANDOMIZE] ASK IF NOT ELIGIBLE FOR CITIZENSHIP (Q122=1): Q.122a Do you think there should be a national law enforcement effort to deport all immigrants who are now living in the U.S. illegally, or should that not be done? ASK IF BE ELIGIBLE FOR CITIZENSHIP (Q122=2): Q.122b And if immigrants meet these requirements, should they be eligible for citizenship? [READ AND RANDOMIZE]
Jan 23-Feb 9 2014 23 Not be eligible for citizenship 17 Should be national law enforcement effort to deport 5 Should not be national law enforcement effort to deport 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 76 Be eligible for citizenship if they meet certain requirements 20 Right away 54 Only after a period of time 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 2 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
25 In December 2013 and September 2013, question was not asked immediately after Q.C116. 165 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
RANDOMIZE IN BLOCKS: Q121/121a/b, Q122/122a/b, Q123/a/b, Q124/a/b, Q125/a/b, Q126/a/b ASK ALL PHASE A: Q.123 What do you think is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns, OR to control gun ownership? ASK IF MORE IMPORTANT TO PROTECT OWNERSHIP (Q123=1): Q.123a And do you think there should be [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? ASK IF MORE IMPORTANT TO CONTROL OWNERSHIP (Q123=2): Q.123b And do you think [READ AND RANDOMIZE]?
Jan 23-Feb 9 2014 49 Protect the right of Americans to own guns 38 Some restrictions on gun ownership 11 No restrictions on gun ownership 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 48 Control gun ownership 35 Most Americans should be able to own guns with certain limits in place 12 Only law enforcement and security personnel should be able to own guns 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 3 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
Q.123 TREND:
Protect right of Americans Control (VOL.) to own guns gun ownership DK/Ref May 1-5, 2013 48 50 2 Feb 13-18, 2013 (U) 46 50 4 Jan 9-13, 2013 45 51 5 Dec 17-19, 2012 42 49 9 July 26-29, 2012 46 47 6 Apr 4-15, 2012 49 45 6 Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 47 49 5 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 48 47 6 Jan 13-16, 2011 49 46 6 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 46 50 4 Mar 10-14, 2010 46 46 7 Mar 31-Apr 21, 2009 45 49 6 April, 2008 37 58 5 November, 2007 42 55 3 April, 2007 32 60 8 February, 2004 37 58 5 June, 2003 42 54 4 May, 2000 38 57 5 April, 2000 37 55 8 March, 2000 29 66 5 June, 1999 33 62 5 May, 1999 30 65 5 December, 1993 34 57 9
166 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
RANDOMIZE IN BLOCKS: Q121/121a/b, Q122/122a/b, Q123/a/b, Q124/a/b, Q125/a/b, Q126/a/b ASK ALL PHASE A: Q.124 Do you think abortion should be [READ AND RANDOMIZE] ASK IF LEGAL IN ALL/MOST (Q124=1): Q.124a Do you think there are any situations in which abortion should be restricted, or should there be no restrictions at all on abortion? ASK IF ILLEGAL IN ALL/MOST (Q124=2): Q.124b Do you think there are any situations in which abortion should be allowed, or should there be no situations at all where abortion is allowed?
Jan 23-Feb 9 2014 51 LEGAL in all or most cases 31 Situations in which abortion should be restricted 19 No restrictions at all on abortion * Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 43 ILLEGAL in all or most cases 28 Situations in which abortion should be allowed 14 No situations where abortion should be allowed 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 6 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
26 Trend for comparison question is worded: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases, with the categories read in reverse order for half the sample. 167 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Q.124 TREND FOR COMPARISON CONTINUED Legal Legal Illegal Illegal NET NET in all in most in most in all (VOL.) Legal in Illegal in cases cases cases cases DK/Ref all/most all/most ABC/WaPo: August, 1996 22 34 27 14 3 56 41 ABC/WaPo: June, 1996 24 34 25 14 2 58 39 ABC/WaPo: October, 1995 26 35 25 12 3 61 37 ABC: September, 1995 24 36 25 11 4 60 36 ABC/WaPo: July, 1995 27 32 26 14 1 59 40
RANDOMIZE IN BLOCKS: Q121/121a/b, Q122/122a/b, Q123/a/b, Q124/a/b, Q125/a/b, Q126/a/b ASK ALL PHASE A: Q.125 Thinking about the long term future of Social Security, do you think [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? ASK IF ACCEPTABLE (Q125=1): Q.125a Should Social Security be [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? ASK IF UNACCEPTABLE (Q125=2): Q.125b Should Social Security [READ AND RANDOMIZE]?
Jan 23-Feb 9 2014 31 Some reductions in benefits for future retirees need to be considered 6 Phased out as a government program 27
24 Maintained at a reduced level 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 67 Social Security benefits should not be reduced in any way 27 Cover more people, with greater benefits 37 Be kept about as it is 3 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 3 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
RANDOMIZE IN BLOCKS: Q121/121a/b, Q122/122a/b, Q123/a/b, Q124/a/b, Q125/a/b, Q126/a/b ASK ALL: Q.126 Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the governments collection of telephone and internet data as part of anti-terrorism efforts?
(U) (U) Jan 23-Mar 16 Jan 15-19 Jul 17-21 Jun 12-16 2014 2014 2013 2013 42 Approve 40 50 48 54 Disapprove 53 44 47 5 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 6 6 4
27 From Jan. 23 to Jan. 29, 2014, item read: Phased out completely. 168 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
RANDOMIZE IN BLOCKS: Q121/121a/b, Q122/122a/b, Q123/a/b, Q124/a/b, Q125/a/b, Q126/a/b ASK ALL: Q.126 Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the governments collection of telephone and internet data as part of anti-terrorism efforts? ASK IF APPROVE IN PHASE A (Q126=1): Q.126a Do you think the National Security Agency should be allowed to collect whatever data it needs, or should there be limits on what it collects? ASK IF DISAPPROVE IN PHASE A (Q126=2): Q.126b Do you think the National Security Agency should be prevented from collecting any data about U.S. citizens, or should it be allowed to collect some limited information?
Jan 23-Feb 9 2014 28
41 Approve 15 NSA should be allowed to collect whatever data it needs
26 Should be limits on what NSA collects 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 54 Disapprove 15 NSA prevented from collecting any data on citizens 38 NSA should be allowed to collect some limited information 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 5 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C127 In general, do you think affirmative action programs designed to increase the number of black and minority students on college campuses are a good thing or a bad thing?
Feb 27-Mar 16 May 2014 2003 29
63 Good thing 60 30 Bad thing 30 8 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 10
ASK ALL PHASE C: Q.C128 Do you favor or oppose building the Keystone XL pipeline that would transport oil from Canadas oil sands region through the Midwest to refineries in Texas?
Feb 27-Mar 16 Sep 4-8 Mar 13-17 2014 2013 30 2013 61 Favor 65 66 27 Oppose 30 23 12 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 5 11
NO QUESTIONS 129-134
28 Q126a and Q126b asked in Phase A (Jan 23-Feb 9, 2014) only. Q126 data in this table is based only on interviews conducted in this period. 29 In May 2003, question appeared after a series of questions about affirmative action. 30 In September 2013 and March 2013, question was asked as part of a list. 169 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL PHASE C: Next, Q.C135 Which comes closer to your view? [READ AND RANDOMIZE] ASK IF EVOLVED (Q.C135=1): Q.C135a And do you think that[READ OPTIONS AND RANDOMIZE]?
(RPL) Feb 27-Mar 16 Mar 21-Apr 8 Apr 28-May 12 2014 2013 2009 61 Humans and other living things have evolved over time 60 61 Humans and other living things have evolved due to natural 34 processes such as natural selection 32 32 A supreme being guided the evolution of living things for the purpose of creating humans and other life in the form it exists 23 today 24 22 4 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 4 7 Humans and other living things have existed in their present 34 form since the beginning of time 33 31 5 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 7 8
Q.C135/Q.135a TREND FOR COMPARISON: Some people think that humans and other living things [INSERT; RANDOMIZE]. Others think that humans and other living things [INSERT; RANDOMIZE]. Which of these comes closest to your view? IF VED, ASK: And do you think that[READ AND RANDOMIZE]?
July July 2006 2005 51 Evolved over time 48 Humans and other living things have evolved due to natural 26 processes such as natural selection 26 A supreme being guided the evolution of living things for the 21 purpose of creating humans and other life in the form it exists today 18 4 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 4 42 Existed in their present form since the beginning of time 42 7 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 10
NO QUESTIONS 136-138
ASK ALL PHASE B: Q.B139 Which comes closest to your view? [READ IN ORDER] [Holy book: If Christian or no religion (RELIG =1-4, 9, 10, 12, 13 OR CHR=1) insert the Bible; If Jewish (RELIG =5), insert the Torah; If Muslim (RELIG=6), insert, the Koran; If other non-Christian affiliations (RELIG=7,8,14 OR (RELIG=11 AND CHR=2,9)), insert the Holy Scripture; IF DK/REF IN RELIGION (RELIG=99) AND CHR=2,9, insert "the Bible"] ASK IF BELIEVE HOLY BOOK IS WORD OF GOD (Q.B139=1): Q.B139a And would you say that [READ IN ORDER]?
Feb 12-26 Jul 21-Aug 5 August 2014 2010 2009 65 [Holy book] is the word of God 68 69 [Holy book] is to be taken literally, 33 word for word [OR] 34 34 Not everything in [Holy book] should 32 be taken literally, word for word/Other/DK 33 35 30 [Holy book] is a book written by men and is not the word of God 23 23 5 Other/Dont know (VOL.) 9 8
170 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL: PARTY In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent? ASK IF INDEP/NO PREF/OTHER/DK/REF (PARTY=3,4,5,9): PARTYLN As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party?
ASK IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT (PARTY=1,2): PARTYSTR Do you consider yourself a STRONG [Republican/Democrat] or NOT a strong [Republican/Democrat]?
Strong Not strong/ Strong Not strong/ Republican DK Democrat DK Jan 28-Mar 16, 2014 31 11 11=22% 17 13=31% Apr 4-15, 2012 14 10=24% 20 11=31% Mar 8-14, 2011 12 12=24% 20 13=33% Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 14 10=24% 18 15=33%
31 Item was asked Jan. 28-Mar 16, 2014 (N=9,569). Party totals shown here may differ from PARTY because of this. 171 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
QUESTIONS B140/B140b, B141/B141b HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
ASK ALL PHASE C REGISTERED VOTERS (REG=1) [N=2,653]: Q.C142 Thinking about the elections you have voted in over the past several years, including national and statewide elections. Would you say you [READ IN ORDER; REVERSE ORDER FOR RANDOM HALF OF SAMPLE]?
Feb 27-Mar 16 2014 10 Always vote Republican 23 Usually vote Republican 23 Vote about equally for both parties 21 Usually vote Democratic [OR] 18 Always vote Democratic 1 Have never voted (VOL.) 2 Dont vote for either party/vote for other parties (VOL.) 2 Don't know/Refused(VOL.)
NO QUESTIONS 143-147
172 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REG=1) [N=7,999]: Q.148 As you may know, primary elections, where parties select their nominees, take place in the months before general elections. Thinking about the primary elections for Congress this year, do you happen to know in what month your states primary will be held? [OPEN END; SINGLE PUNCH; DO NOT READ, USE PRECODES, IF RESPONDENT IS NOT SURE, DO NOT PROBE, ENTER AS DONT KNOW]
Jan 23-Mar 16 2014 12 Correct month given 17 Incorrect month given 69 Dont know/Refused
2 Lives in Louisiana 32
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REG=1) [N=7,999]: Q.149 And how often would you say you vote in Congressional PRIMARY elections? Would you say you vote in Congressional primary elections [READ IN ORDER]?
TREND FOR COMPARISON 33 : Jan 23-Mar 16 Jan 15-19 Oct 9-13 Sep 4-8 Jul 17-21 2014 2014 2013 34 2013 2013 35 Always 42 52 50 46 22 Nearly always 22 18 24 23 17 Part of the time 16 16 13 13 24 Seldom or never 18 11 11 14 Not registered with party/ 1 Cant vote in primaries (VOL.) -- -- -- -- 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 2 3 2 4
ASK ALL: TEAPARTY2 From what you know, do you agree or disagree with the Tea Party movement, or dont you have an opinion either way?
(VOL.) Not No opinion Havent (VOL.) heard of/ Agree Disagree either way heard of Refused DK Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 18 28 51 1 2 -- Oct 9-13, 2013 19 32 46 2 2 -- Jul 17-21, 2013 18 25 52 4 1 -- Jun 12-16, 2013 22 29 46 2 2 -- May 23-26, 2013 17 20 56 3 4 -- Feb 14-17, 2013 19 26 52 2 1 -- Dec 5-9, 2012 18 29 50 2 1 -- Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 (RVs) 19 29 47 1 3 -- Oct 4-7, 2012 19 25 52 2 2 -- Sep 12-16, 2012 18 26 53 2 2 -- Jul 16-26, 2012 16 27 54 2 1 -- Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 19 27 49 3 2 -- Jun 7-17, 2012 21 25 52 2 1 -- May 9-Jun 3, 2012 16 25 54 2 3 -- Apr 4-15, 2012 20 26 50 3 2 -- Mar 7-11, 2012 19 29 48 2 2 -- Feb 8-12, 2012 18 25 53 2 2 -- Jan 11-16, 2012 20 24 52 2 2 -- Jan 4-8, 2012 18 25 52 2 3 -- Dec 7-11, 2011 19 27 50 2 2 -- Nov 9-14, 2011 20 27 51 1 1 --
32 In Louisiana, a congressional primary election is not held. 33 In Jan. 15-19, 2014 survey and earlier, question did not have the word Congressional. 34 In October 2013 and earlier, the fourth answer choice was Seldom instead of Seldom or never. 173 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
TEAPARTY2 CONTINUED (VOL.) Not No opinion Havent (VOL.) heard of/ Agree Disagree either way heard of Refused DK Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 19 27 51 2 1 -- Aug 17-21, 2011 20 27 50 1 1 -- Jul 20-24, 2011 20 24 53 1 1 -- Jun 15-19, 2011 20 26 50 3 2 -- May 25-30, 2011 18 23 54 2 2 -- Mar 30-Apr 3, 2011 22 29 47 1 1 -- Mar 8-14, 2011 19 25 54 1 1 -- Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 20 25 52 2 2 -- Feb 2-7, 2011 35 22 22 53 2 2 -- Jan 5-9, 2011 24 22 50 2 1 -- Dec 1-5, 2010 22 26 49 2 2 -- Nov 4-7, 2010 27 22 49 1 1 -- Oct 27-30, 2010 (RVs) 29 25 32 -- 1 13 Oct 13-18, 2010 (RVs) 28 24 30 -- 1 16 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 29 26 32 -- 1 13 Jul 21-Aug 5, 2010 22 18 37 -- 1 21 Jun 16-20, 2010 24 18 30 -- * 27 May 20-23, 2010 25 18 31 -- 1 25 Mar 11-21, 2010 24 14 29 -- 1 31
Q.150 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
35 In the February 2-7, 2011, survey and before, question read do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement In October 2010 and earlier, question was asked only of those who had heard or read a lot or a little about the Tea Party. In May 2010 through October 2010, it was described as: the Tea Party movement that has been involved in campaigns and protests in the U.S. over the past year. In March 2010 it was described as the Tea Party protests that have taken place in the U.S. over the past year. Key to Pew Research trends noted in the topline:
(SDT) Pew Research Social and Demographic Trends (U) Pew Research Center/USA Today polls (WP) Pew Research Center/Washington Post polls (RPL) Pew Research Religion and Public Life 174 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
PEW RESEARCH CENTER AMERICAN TRENDS PANEL WAVE 1 FINAL TOPLINE MARCH 19-APRIL 29, 2014 TOTAL N=3,308 WEB RESPONDENTS N=2,901 PHONE RESPONDENTS N=407 36
ASK ALL: Q.1 Below is a list of topics that some people are interested in, and others are not. Click on the topics that you are interested in. You can click anywhere in each of the boxes to check the button. [RANDOMIZE] [ALLOW MULTIPLE ANSWERS]
Mar 19-Apr 29, 2014 37
Based on Based on web total respondents [N=3,308] [N=2,901] 70 66 Health and medicine 61 57 Events in your community 59 58 Science and technology 58 57 Government and politics 53 48 Religion and spirituality 46 44 Entertainment and celebrities 44 41 Sports 43 40 Business and finance 41 40 Art and theater
ASK WEB RESPONDENTS ONLY: ASK IF INTERESTED IN MORE THAN THREE TOPICS (Q1=1): Q.2 Of the topics you are interested in, which ones are you most interested in? Choose up to three. [KEEP TOPICS IN SAME ORDER AND POSITION AS Q1]
BASED ON TOTAL:
Mar 19-Apr 29 2014 Based on web respondents [N=2,901] 38
37 Health and medicine 36 Government and politics 32 Science and technology 28 Religion and spirituality 23 Sports 22 Events in your community 20 Entertainment and celebrities 16 Business and finance 14 Art and theater
NO QUESTIONS 3-6, 11-15, 26-29, 37-40 QUESTION 7-10, 16-25, 30-36 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE QUESTION 41 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
36 Question wording in this topline is that from the web version of the survey. For those questions asked on the phone, wording was adapted slightly so that it could be asked over the phone. Question wording for the phone version of the survey is available on request. 37 Percentages add up to more than 100% because multiple answers were accepted. 38 Percentages add up to more than 100% because up to three responses were accepted. These percentages also include the responses of those who selected three or fewer topics in Q1, and thus were not asked Q2. 175 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL: Q.42 How much do you enjoy talking about government and politics with friends and family?
Mar 19-Apr 29, 2014 Based on Based on web total respondents [N=3,308] [N=2,901] 16 15 A lot 38 39 Some 31 31 Not much 15 14 Not at all * 0 No answer
NO QUESTION 43
ASK ALL: Q.44 Which of the following statements best describes you?
Mar 19-Apr 29, 2014 Based on Based on web total respondents [N=3,308] [N=2,901] Most of my close friends share my views on government and 35 36 politics 39 41 Some of my close friends share my views, but many do not I dont really know what most of my close friends think about 26 23 government and politics * * No answer
NO QUESTIONS 45, 49-52 QUESTIONS 46-48, 53-60 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
176 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
PEW RESEARCH CENTER AMERICAN TRENDS PANEL WAVE 3 FINAL TOPLINE MAY 5-27, 2014 TOTAL N=3,243 WEB RESPONDENTS N=2,906 MAIL RESPONDENTS N=337 39
SELECTED QUESTIONS HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF BLOCK FAVPOL1 AND FAVPOL2; RANDOMIZE ORDER OF ITEMS IN EACH BLOCK. ASK ALL: FAVPOL 1 What is your overall opinion of each of the following?
May 5-27, 2014 Never -------Favorable------- ------Unfavorable------ heard of/ Total Very Mostly Total Very Mostly Not sure No answer ITEM a HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
b. Paul Ryan 32 8 24 36 19 17 31 1
c. Elizabeth Warren 22 10 13 22 11 11 54 2
d. Mitch McConnell 16 2 15 34 17 17 47 2
e. Rand Paul 29 7 22 34 17 18 35 2
f. Hillary Clinton 54 21 33 41 25 15 4 1
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF BLOCK FAVPOL1 AND FAVPOL2; RANDOMIZE ORDER OF ITEMS IN EACH BLOCK. ASK ALL: FAVPOL 2 What is your overall opinion of each of the following?
May 5-27, 2014 Never -------Favorable------- ------Unfavorable------ heard of/ Total Very Mostly Total Very Mostly Not sure No answer a. Ted Cruz 23 7 16 32 20 12 44 2
ITEM b HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
c. Nancy Pelosi 29 6 23 47 31 16 24 1
d. Marco Rubio 27 6 20 28 14 14 44 1
e. Jeb Bush 31 5 26 42 19 23 26 1
f. Chris Christie 32 5 27 41 17 24 25 2
39 Question wording in this topline is that from the web version of the survey. Question wording and format was adapted for the paper questionnaire delivered by mail; this questionnaire is available on request. 177 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF BLOCK (ME1 AND ME2 1st vs. ME3 and ME4 1st); RANOMIZE ORDER OF SET WITHIN BLOCK (e.g., ME1 1 st vs ME2 1 st )RANDOMIZE ORDER OF ITEMS IN EACH SET. ASK ALL: ME1 Which of these describes you well? (Check all that apply) [RANDOMIZE ITEMS]
May 5-27, 2014 Not selected/ Applies No answer a. Hunter, fisher, or sportsman 24 76 b. Trusting person 65 35 c. Spiritual person 52 48 d. Fast-food lover 18 81 e. Upbeat and optimistic 59 41
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF BLOCK (ME1 AND ME2 1st vs. ME3 and ME4 1st); RANOMIZE ORDER OF SET WITHIN BLOCK (e.g., ME1 1 st vs ME2 1 st )RANDOMIZE ORDER OF ITEMS IN EACH SET. ASK ALL: ME2 Which of these describes you well? (Check all that apply) [RANDOMIZE ITEMS]
May 5-27, 2014 Not selected/ Applies No answer a. Couldnt vacation without my smart phone 22 78 b. Honor and duty are my core values 52 48 c. Am sometimes uncomfortable being around people not of my race 8 92 d. Think of myself as a typical American 65 34 e. Recycle and reuse as a daily habit 49 51
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF AGREE1 AND AGREE2 ASK ALL: AGREE1 Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
I enjoy challenging the opinions of others.
May 5-27 2014 22 Strongly agree 50 Somewhat agree 21 Somewhat disagree 7 Strongly disagree * No answer
ASK ALL: AGREE2 Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
It makes me uncomfortable when people argue about politics.
May 5-27 2014 12 Strongly agree 32 Somewhat agree 34 Somewhat disagree 21 Strongly disagree * No answer
178 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF AGREE3 AND AGREE4 ASK ALL: AGREE3 Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Elected officials would help the country more if they would stop talking and just take action on important problems.
May 5-27 2014 65 Strongly agree 27 Somewhat agree 7 Somewhat disagree 2 Strongly disagree * No answer
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF AGREE3 AND AGREE4 ASK ALL: AGREE4 Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
I would vote against any elected official who voted to raise taxes.
May 5-27 2014 32 Strongly agree 28 Somewhat agree 26 Somewhat disagree 13 Strongly disagree 1 No answer
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF BLOCK (ME1 AND ME2 1st vs. ME3 and ME4 1st); RANDOMIZE ORDER OF SET WITHIN BLOCK (e.g., ME1 1 st vs ME2 1 st ) RANDOMIZE ORDER OF ITEMS IN EACH SET ASK ALL: ME3 Which of these describes you well? [Check all that apply] [RANDOMIZE ITEMS]
May 5-27, 2014
Applies Not selected/ No answer a. Video or Computer Gamer 21 79 b. Outdoor person 57 42 c. Libertarian 14 86 d. Religious person 46 54 e. Focused on health and fitness 42 57
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF BLOCK (ME1 AND ME2 1st vs. ME3 and ME4 1st); RANDOMIZE ORDER OF SET WITHIN BLOCK (e.g., ME1 1 st vs ME2 1 st ) RANDOMIZE ORDER OF ITEMS IN EACH SET ASK ALL: ME4 Which of these describes you well? [Check all that apply] [RANDOMIZE ITEMS]
May 5-27, 2014
Applies Not selected/ No answer a. Sports fan 36 64 b. Rarely worry what others think of me 52 48 c. Compassion and helping others are my core values 74 26 d. Often feel proud to be American 56 44 e. Skeptical of medical experts recommendations 23 77
179 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
ASK ALL: TRANSPORT Thinking about a typical month, how often, if ever, do you use public transportation? (That is a bus, subway or rail system.)
May 5-27 2014 9 More than once a week 3 Once a week 10 Once or twice a month 78 Never 1 No answer
ASK ALL: INVEST Which of the following best describes your own level of investment in the stock market? [RANDOMIZE OR ROTATE ORDER OF RESPONSE OPTIONS 1 AND 3]
May 5-27 2014 3 I trade stocks and other funds pretty regularly I have some long-term investments like retirement accounts, 42 but dont trade stocks regularly 54 I dont have any money in the stock market 1 No answer
ASK ALL: GUN1 Do you happen to have any guns, rifles or pistols in your home?
May 5-27 2014 34 Yes 63 No 3 No answer
ASK ALL: UNIONHH Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor union?
May 5-27 2014 8 Yes, I am 6 Yes, someone else in household 2 Yes, both myself and someone else 83 No, nobody in household 1 No answer
Monitoring and Evaluation in The Third Sector: Findings of A Survey To Third Sector Organisations Carried Out by Charities Evaluation Services in May and June 2007 (Ellis 2007)