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AFGHANISTAN: COMPETING HOPE AND DESPAIR

Air Commodore (R) Khalid Iqbal

As John Kerry circumvented Islamabad, Special Representative James Dobbins and Prime
Minster David Cameron strived to wear his shoes. After a pro-India statement in New Delhi
asking India to play a central role in Afghanistan, and with no tangible proposals with regard to
Drone attacks, Kerry hardly had a chance of meaningful engagement with the new
government of Pakistan. Skipping Pakistan from the regional tour of John Kerry has sent
depressing signal. No one would buy the lame excuse of evolving situation in the Middle-East
as the reason for dropping Pakistan from the itinerary.

What made US Secretary of State John Kerry say that India could playcentral role in
Afghanistans elections next year is not known. He went on to say that the world's largest
democracy could help the Afghan government improve its electoral system and create a
credible frame-work to settle disputes. Mr Kerrys statement has been received in Islamabad
with surprise and dismay. New Delhi and Washington have different strategies on establishing
peace in Afghanistan. While the US has initiated talks with the Taliban, India has objected to it,
saying that it could lead to conferring legitimacy to insurgent groups and send a wrong signal
to various competing factions.

It is Pakistan that has a central role in peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan, and it is
Islamabad which has facilitated opening of Talibans Doha office and establishment of
contacts between the United States and Afghan Taliban. Earlier too, on the demand of Afghan
High Peace Council, Pakistan had released Afghan prisoners that were potentially helpful in
furthering the process of national reconciliation.

India is not an immediate neighbour of Afghanistan, American insistence to make it in-charge
of post 2014 Afghanistan is fraught with dangers. The real problem in Afghanistan is foreign
interference and aggression and that is why Pakistan has all along been insisting that it would
support an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led process of reconciliation and peace.

In the broader context, theres neither a framework nor much incentive to scale down the
conflict in Afghanistan. American politicians are striving to make Afghanistan look like an
American victory, but that is simply not the case, running away is exactly what America is
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doing. Recently Fox News reported that right now, violence is at levels matching the worst in
12 years. The war in Afghanistan is far from over. Peace remains elusive. Abdur Rashid
Dostum has reportedly been working overtime to bolster his militia in anticipation of renewed
civil strife.

Taliban opened their political office in Doha with an eye catching ceremony that included a
ribbon cutting and playing of the Taliban anthem, while the Qatari deputy foreign minister was
in attendance. The Taliban said they intended to use the site to meet with representatives of
other countries and the United Nations. Language the Taliban used closely followed the
American framework for peace talks. They indicated intent to distance themselves from Al
Qaeda and other terrorist groups, saying that Talibans aims were only within Afghanistan and
they did not support the use of Afghan soil to plot international attacks.


Coinciding with opening of political office in Doha, Taliban also sent a strong message through
a deadly summer offensive in Kabul. In a dare-devil attack, Taliban stormed Presidential
Palace and a high profile CIA base in Kabul. This incident came a day after the American
military formally handed over control of country wide security to Afghan forces. It was one of
the boldest attacks since Karzai narrowly escaped assassination in April 2008, during a
military parade. Show of strength in the most secure area of the Afghan capital doesnt
necessarily imply that Taliban are averse to peace, it only shows that their will to fight is also
intact.

The dormant US-Afghan Taliban dialogue showed signs of revival during last month, mostly
due to the Pakistans effort. It is a last-minute effort to push for a political settlement before its
too late. Inaugural ceremony in Doha brought forth the huge perceptional gaps amongst the
vision of three parties to negotiations. The cardinal point is that the political faade of Emirate
of Afghanistan, which had melted away after the fall of Taliban government in 2001, now
stands revived and acknowledged. Now it is only a matter of time that it receives dejure
international recognition. Despite denials, the Doha office is Worlds one window contact point
with the Government (in exile) of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. From their new office in
Qatar, Taliban officials announced that they were ready to engage American and Afghan
officials in peace talks, and they now sought a political and peaceful solution. Sooner or later
the other two parties would reconcile to negotiate under the flag and emblem that Taliban had
displayed during the ceremony.

Doha peace initiative is the latest move in Americas rapid retreat from the war in Afghanistan,
a war the US no longer wants to be part of. These peace talks would only be the beginning of
a complex, long and messy ordeal. America wants to just get out of Afghanistan. In his
second inaugural address, President Obama stated, A decade of war is now ending. Later in
May, he reiterated, This war, like all wars, must end. Thats what history advises America
has had enough of war. Americas will to fight is sapped. American talks with the Taliban show
that even a superpower has failed to humble these elements with force.

President Karzais political power is posed to follow a fizzling curve as Afghanistan inches
towards political transition. Soon the US-Islamic Emirate dialogue would become more robust
and meaning full. Talibans self assertion, both militarily and politically, should be understood
with all seriousness; attempts to marginalize predominant Pushtun population of Afghanistan
would lead nowhere. No one should expect durable peace by handing over Afghanistan to
minority ethnic groups.
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Pakistan should strive for an all inclusive Afghan solution. It must reinforce its outreach to non-
Pushtun political forces in Afghanistan, including all major 2014 presidential candidates. The
goal should be to convince Afghanistans major stake holders that Pakistan seeks peace and
stability for its neighbour and could act as a bridge for an intra-Afghan dialogue. Pakistan
indeed has an arduous task at hand in Afghanistanto keep a balance between hope and
despair.

{Carried By Pakistan Observer and Frontier Post on July 03, 2013}.

Writer is Consultant, Policy & Strategic Response, IPRI. E mail: khalid3408@gmail.com