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Documentos de Profesional
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a''umed #o /e inde)enden#l- and normall- di'#ri/u#ed random 0aria/le' .or all iF' and
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'#a#ionar-$ I9& de0elo)ed #+o #e'# '#a#i'#i%' and %alled #hem #he ?M-/ar and #he #-/ar
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null h-)o#he'i'4 and i# ou#)er.orm' M-/ar in 'mall 'am)le'$ The- #hen u'e e'#ima#e'
o. i#' mean and 0arian%e #o %on0er# #-/ar in#o a '#andard normal R@-/arF '#a#i'#i% 'o #ha#
%on0en#ional %ri#i%al 0alue' %an /e u'ed #o e0alua#e i#' 'i*ni.i%an%e$ The @-/ar #e'#
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$ In #heir Ta/le 24 I9& 220033 )ro0ide exa%# %ri#i%al 0alue' o. #he t-
bar
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'#a#i'#i% .or 'ome A4T ran*e' and .or #he 14 54 10J %on.iden%e le0el'$ The I9&
uni# roo# #e'# i' u'ed in #hi' )a)er #o #e'# .or '#a#ionari#- o. #he )anel da#a o/#ained .or
#he 1(( %oun#rie'$
('' Heterogeneous Panel Cointegration
&)
=
0
0
:
1
i
i
+
The %on%e)# o. %oin#e*ra#ion +a' .ir'# in#rodu%ed in#o #he li#era#ure /- 1ran*er
21903$ (oin#e*ra#ion im)lie' #he exi'#en%e o. a lon*-run rela#ion'hi) /e#+een
e%onomi% 0aria/le'$ The )rin%i)le o. #e'#in* .or %oin#e*ra#ion i' #o #e'# +he#her #+o or
more in#e*ra#ed 0aria/le' de0ia#e 'i*ni.i%an#l- .rom a %er#ain rela#ion'hi) 2A/adir and
Ta-lor419993$ In o#her +ord'4 i. #he 0aria/le' are %oin#e*ra#ed4 #he- mo0e #o*e#her
o0er #ime 'o #ha# 'hor#-#erm di'#ur/an%e' +ill /e %orre%#ed in #he lon*-#erm$ Thi'
mean' #ha# i.4 in #he lon*-run4 #+o or more 'erie' mo0e %lo'el- #o*e#her4 #he
di..eren%e /e#+een #hem i' %on'#an#$ >#her+i'e4 i. #+o 'erie' are no# %oin#e*ra#ed4
#he- ma- +ander ar/i#raril- .ar a+a- .rom ea%h o#her 25i%7e- e#$ al$4 19913$
Fur#her4 1ran*er 21913 'ho+ed #ha# +hen #he 'erie' /e%ome' '#a#ionar- onl- a.#er
/ein* di..eren%ed on%e 2in#e*ra#ed o. order one34 #he- mi*h# ha0e linear %om/ina#ion'
#ha# are '#a#ionar- +i#hou# di..eren%in*$ In #he li#era#ure4 'u%h 'erie' are %alled
M%oin#e*ra#edN$ I. in#e*ra#ion o. order one i' im)lied4 #he nex# '#e) i' #o u'e
%oin#e*ra#ion anal-'i' in order #o e'#a/li'h +he#her #here exi'#' a lon*-run rela#ion'hi)
amon* #he 'e# o. #he in#e*ra#ed 0aria/le' in ,ue'#ion$ !arlier #e'#' o. %oin#e*ra#ion
in%lude #he 'im)le #+o-'#e) #e'# /- !n*le and 1ran*er 2!1 herea.#er3 21973$
6o+e0er4 #he !1 me#hod 'u..er' .rom a num/er o. )ro/lem'$ Al#erna#i0el-4 !n*le
and Voo 21973 2!V4 herea.#er3 3-'#e) )ro%edure ha0e /een +idel- re%o*ni@ed a'
dealin* +i#h mo'# o. #he'e )ro/lem'$ Ae0er#hele''4 a )ro/lem remain' +hi%h i' #ha#
/o#h !1 and !V me#hod' %anno# deal +i#h #he %a'e +here more #han one
%oin#e*ra#in* rela#ion'hi) i' )o''i/le$ 6en%e4 Bohan'enF' We%#or Au#o 8e*re''ion
2WA83 #e'# o. in#e*ra#ion 2Bohan'en4 193 u'e' a R'-'#em'F a))roa%h #o %oin#e*ra#ion
#ha# allo+' de#ermina#ion o. u) #o r linearl- inde)enden# %oin#e*ra#in* 0e%#or' 2r *-
14 +here * i' #he num/er o. 0aria/le' #e'#ed .or %oin#e*ra#ion3$ The Bohan'enF'
)ro%edure i' u'e.ul in %ondu%#in* indi0idual %oin#e*ra#ion #e'#'4 /u# doe' no# deal +i#h
%oin#e*ra#ion #e'# in )anel 'e##in*'$
8e%o*ni@in* #he 'hor#%omin*' o. #radi#ional )ro%edure'4 #hi' '#ud- u#ili@ed #he #+o
#-)e' o. #he he#ero*eneou' )anel %oin#e*ra#ion #e'# de0elo)ed /- 9edroni 219974
19993 +hi%h4 in addi#ion #o u'in* )anel da#a #here/- o0er%omin* #he )ro/lem o.
&+
'mall 'am)le'4 allo+' di..eren# indi0idual %ro''-'e%#ion e..e%#' /- allo+in* .or
he#ero*enei#- in #he in#er%e)#' and 'lo)e' o. #he %oin#e*ra#in* e,ua#ion$
9edroniF' me#hod in%lude' a num/er o. di..eren# '#a#i'#i%' .or #he #e'# o. #he null o. no
%oin#e*ra#ion in he#ero*eneou' )anel'
4
$ The .ir'# *rou) o. #e'#' i' #ermed M+i#hin
dimen'ionN$ I# in%lude' #he )anel-04 )anel rho2r34 +hi%h i' 'imilar #o #he 9hilli)' and
9erron 2193 #e'#4 )anel non-)arame#ri% 2))3 and )anel )arame#ri% 2ad.3 '#a#i'#i%'$
The )anel non-)arame#ri% '#a#i'#i% and #he )anel )arame#ri% '#a#i'#i% are analo*ou' #o
#he 'in*le-e,ua#ion A5F-#e'#$ The o#her *rou) o. #e'#' i' %alled M/e#+een dimen'ionN$
I# i' %om)ara/le #o #he *rou) mean )anel #e'#' o. Im e# al$ 219973$ The M/e#+een
dimen'ionN #e'#' in%lude .our #e'#': *rou)-rho4 *rou)-))4 and *rou)-ad. '#a#i'#i%'$
The 'e0en o. 9edroniF' #e'#' are /a'ed on #he e'#ima#ed re'idual' .rom #he .ollo+in*
lon* run model:
it
m
*
*it *i i it
& y + + =
=1
243
+here it t i i it
. + =
3 1 2
are #he e'#ima#ed re'idual' .rom #he )anel re*re''ion$
The null h-)o#he'i' #e'#ed i' +he#her i
1 1
0
it &i
m
*
* it *
m
*
* it * it
f 0 Y 0 + + + + =
=
1 1
0
253
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it
Y
and
it
0
are #he #+o %o-in#e*ra#ed 0aria/le'4 iO14P$$4A re)re'en#' %ro''-
'e%#ional )anel mem/er'4
it
)
and
it
v
are error #erm'$ Thi' model di..er' .rom #he
'#andard %au'ali#- model in #ha# i# add' #+o #erm'4 f
&i
and f
yi
+hi%h are indi0idual
.ixed e..e%#' .or #he )anel mem/er i$
In #he e,ua#ion' a/o0e4 #he la**ed de)enden# 0aria/le' are %orrela#ed +i#h #he error
#erm'4 in%ludin* #he .ixed e..e%#'$ 6en%e4 >?& e'#ima#e' o. #he a/o0e model +ill /e
/ia'ed$ The remed- i' #o remo0e #he .ixed e..e%#' /- di..eren%in*$ The re'ul#in*
model i':
it
m
*
* it *
m
*
* it * it
) 0 Y Y + + =
=
1 1
it
m
*
* it *
m
*
* it * it
v 0 Y 0 + + =
=
1 1
263
6o+e0er4 di..eren%in* in#rodu%e' a 'imul#anei#- )ro/lem /e%au'e la**ed endo*enou'
0aria/le' in #he ri*h# hand 'ide are %orrela#ed +i#h #he ne+ di..eren%ed error #erm$ In
addi#ion4 he#ero'%eda'#i%i#- i' ex)e%#ed #o /e )re'en# /e%au'e4 in #he )anel da#a4
he#ero*eneou' error' mi*h# exi'# +i#h di..eren# )anel mem/er'$ To deal +i#h #he'e
)ro/lem'4 in'#rumen#al 0aria/le )ro%edure i' #radi#ionall- u'ed in e'#ima#in* #he
model4 +hi%h )rodu%e' %on'i'#en# e'#ima#e' o. #he )arame#er'$
&-
A''umin* #ha# #he
it
)
and
it
1 1
it
m
*
* it *
m
*
* it * it
%D2 3D4 %D2 + + =
=
1 1
273
Chere F5I re)re'en#' #he ne# .lo+ o. .orei*n dire%# in0e'#men#4 159 re)re'en#' real
)er %a)i#a *ro'' dome'#i% )rodu%#4 iO 1424P$46 re)re'en# %oun#rie'4 and tO 1424
PP$435 re)re'en# #ime )eriod' 2-ear'3$
The null h-)o#he'e' #e'#ed are:
6 4$$$$$4 1 0 = = * for
*
6 4$$$$$4 1 0 = = * for
*
23
The re'ul#' o. #he 1MM e'#ima#e' o. #he model are re)or#ed in Ta/le 2 $ The #a/le
al'o re)or#' #he #e'#' u'ed #o %hoo'e /o#h #he la* len*#h and #he a))ro)ria#e
in'#rumen#' u'ed in e'#ima#ion$ Fir'#4 de#erminin* #he o)#imal la* '#ru%#ure i' done
u'in* Cald #e'#$ The #e'# re;e%#' #he h-)o#he'i' o. no 'e%ond la* in /o#h #he 159 and
F5I e,ua#ion'4 in .a0or o. #+o la* '#ru%#ure$
.able ' G33 estimation and causality results
To #e'# .or %au'ali#- /e#+een 159 and F5I4 +e #urn #o Cald #e'#$ Ta/le 2 re)or#' #he
e'#ima#ed %oe..i%ien#' and #he Cald #e'# .or #he null o. no %au'ali#- a' re)re'en#ed /-
23$ In #he F5I e,ua#ion4 #he Cald #e'# indi%a#e' #ha# %au'ali#- run' .rom 159 #o F5I
a' #he #e'# re;e%#' #he null o. no %au'ali#- a# #he 1J 'i*ni.i%an%e le0el'$ >n #he o#her
hand4 #he e0iden%e indi%a#e' #ha# %au'ali#- i' runnin* .rom F5I #o 159 in #he 159
e,ua#ion a' +ell$ The Cald re;e%#' #he null o. no %au'ali#- a# #he 'ame 'i*ni.i%an%e
le0el'$ There.ore4 +e ma- %on%lude #ha# in #he 1((4 e0iden%e indi%a#e' a /i-
dire%#ional %au'ali#- runnin* /e#+een 159 and .orei*n dire%# in0e'#men#$
To ma7e 'ure #ha# our %hoi%e o. in'#rumen#' +a' 0alid in e'#ima#ion4 +e #e'# .or #he
o0er-iden#i.-in* re'#ri%#ion' u'in* &ar*an #e'#4 +hi%h i' %ommon #e'# o. #he 0alidi#- o.
in'#rumen#al 0aria/le' u'ed in e'#ima#ion$ The h-)o#he'i' /ein* #e'#ed i' #ha# #he
in'#rumen#al 0aria/le' are un%orrela#ed +i#h re'idual'4 and #here.ore ma- /e u'ed in
Estimated Coe$$icients De2endent <ariable
GDP9 lags: FDI9 lags:
159
i#-1
0$272
20$003
0$11
20$343
F5Ii#-1 -0$001
20$053
-0$442
20$003
159i#-2 -0$232
20$003
0$101
20$243
F5Ii#-2 -0$0002
20$533
-0$272
20$013
Cald ?a* ?en*#h Te'#:
Aull 6-)o#he'i': 2mO13
37$29
20$003
11$6
20$003
&ar*an Te'#F' 9-0alue 20$33 20$993
1ald Causality .est
Aull 6-)o#he'i': F5I doe' no# %au'e 159 159 doe' no# %au'e F5I
49$55
20$003***
4$66
20$003***
Aum/er' in )aren#he'e' are #he )-0alue'$
*** &i*ni.i%an# a# 1J le0el
%
e'#ima#ion$ The '#a#i'#i% i' a'-m)#o#i%all- di'#ri/u#ed %hi-',uared i. #he null
h-)o#he'i' i' #rue$ The re'ul#' 'ho+ #ha#4 +hen u'in* all la**ed 0alue' o. #he 0aria/le'
a' in'#rumen#' .or #O3 and earlier4 #he &ar*an #e'# doe' no# re;e%# #he 0alidi#- o. #hi'
'e# o. in'#rumen#' in /o#h e,ua#ion'$ Thi' im)lie' #he 0alidi#- o. #he in'#rumen#' u'ed
in e'#ima#ion$
+' Conclusion and Policy Im2lications
Thi' )a)er i' de0o#ed #o ex)lore #he dire%#ion o. in#era%#ion /e#+een F5I and
e%onomi% *ro+#h in #he 1(( %oun#rie' u'in* a )anel %oin#e*ra#ion .rame+or7$ In
mo'# o. #he )re0iou' '#udie'4 #he rela#ion'hi) /e#+een F5I and *ro+#h had /een
'#udied )re'umin* %au'ali#- runnin* .rom F5I #o 159 *ro+#h$ The ma;ori#- o. #he
li#era#ure on #he 'u/;e%# u'e *ro+#h model' in #he %on#ex# o. *ro+#h a%%oun#in* #o #e'#
.or #he 'i*ni.i%an%e o. F5I a' an exo*enou' 0aria/le in #he *ro+#h e,ua#ion$ In
addi#ion4 #ime 'erie' da#a a# #he %oun#r- le0el ha0e /een #radi#ionall- u'ed$ In #hi'
ar#i%le4 +e ado)# a di..eren# a))roa%h #o #e'# #he F5I-159 rela#ion'hi)$ 8a#her #han
)re'umin* #ha# F5I i' one o. #he de#erminan#' o. e%onomi% *ro+#h4 +e #e'# .or 'u%h
a''um)#ion$ To %ondu%# 'u%h #e'#4 +e u'e he#ero*eneou'-)anel %oin#e*ra#ion and
%au'ali#- #e%hni,ue' #o #e'# .or #he )o''i/ili#- o. %au'ali#- runnin* .rom F5I #o 159$
In addi#ion4 +e #e'# .or #he )o''i/ili#- o. re0er'e %au'ali#- runnin* .rom 159 #o F5I$
The re'ul#' o/#ained in #hi' re'ear%h4 +hi%h are /a'ed on he#ero*eneou' )anel
%oin#e*ra#ion #e%hni,ue'4 in addi#ion #o #he 1MM e'#ima#or #ha# allo+ .or %oun#r--
')e%i.i% he#ero*enei#- o. all )arame#er'4 indi%a#e a '#ron* %au'al lin7 .rom F5I #o
159 and 0i'e 0er'a$ The re'ul#' indi%a#e #ha#4 in #he 1((4 F5I ha' /een an im)or#an#
.a%#or in #hi' /lo%7F' e%onomi% *ro+#h$ Thi' re'ul# %on.irm' )re0iou' e0iden%e
o/#ained /- a num/er o. +ri#er' .or o#her %oun#rie'4 and i' in a%%ordan%e +i#h #he
endo*enou' *ro+#h h-)o#he'i'$ The 'ame re'ul#' al'o %on.irm #he e..e%# o. #heir hi*h
159 *ro+#h ex)erien%ed durin* mo'# o. #he )eriod '#udied on #he )a%e o. F5I .lo+
in#o #he'e %oun#rie'$ In *eneral4 #he #+o-+a- %au'ali#- /e#+een 159 and F5I ha'
'ome im)li%a#ion'$ >n one hand4 #he e%onomi% *ro+#h o. #he 1(( %oun#rie' ma-
.ur#her /ene.i# .rom F5I in.lo+' #o #he e%onomie' o. #hi' /lo%7 o. %oun#rie'$ The
(
'e%ond i' #ha# 1(( %oun#rie' ma- /ene.i# .rom .ur#her ado)#in* )oli%ie' #ha# a##ra%#'
F5I .lo+' in#o #heir e%onomie'$
In )ar#i%ular4 our .indin*' indi%a#e #ha# +hile F5I )romo#e *ro+#h4 159
*ro+#h al'o a##ra%# more F5I in.lo+'$ In o#her +ord4 hi*her *ro+#h o. 1(( %oun#rie'=
159 i' #he dri0in* .or%e /ehind #he 'ur*e in F5I in.lo+' in addi#ion #o /ein* a
%on'e,uen%e o. #he'e in.lo+'$ Thi' i''ue ha' im)or#an# )oli%- im)li%a#ion'$ The
re'ul#' 'u**e'# #ha# #here i' a )o'i#i0e %orrela#ion /e#+een F5I in.lo+' and *ro+#h in
a /idire%#ional +a-$ Thu'4 i. 159 *ro+#h 'eem' #o a##ra%# more F5I in.lo+'4 #hen
)romo#ional )oli%ie' #o en%oura*e in+ard .lo+' o. F5I onl- ma- /e%ome
unne%e''ar-$ In'#ead4 e..or#' 'hould /e dire%#ed #o o#her )o#en#ial 'our%e' o. *ro+#h$
>n%e *ro+#h i' enhan%ed and '#imula#ed4 .orei*n %a)i#al +ill #hen /e a##ra%#ed$
1(( %oun#rie' 'hould al'o /e 'ele%#i0e in a##ra%#in* F5I$ In %on#ra'# #o o#her
de0elo)in* %oun#rie'4 1(( %oun#rie' ha0e a/undan# .inan%ial re%our'e' and dome'#i%
in0e'#men# %ould .inan%e #heir de0elo)men#$ 6o+e0er4 in.lux o. F5I ha' *rea#
)o#en#ial #o -ield hi*her *ro+#h #hrou*h hi*her e..i%ien%- in )h-'i%al and human
%a)i#al and #hrou*h )o'i#i0e ex#ernali#ie' 'u%h a' .a%ili#a#in* #ran'i#ion and di..u'in*
#e%hnolo*- a' +ell a' in#rodu%#ion o. al#erna#i0e mana*emen# )ra%#i%e'4
or*ani@a#ional arran*emen#4 and im)ro0ed en#re)reneurial '7ill'$ Ae0er#hele''4 F5I
ex#ernali#ie' ma- ha0e #ri0ial e..e%#' i. #he lin7' +i#h lo%al /u'ine'' +ere +ea7$ Thu'4
)oli%ie' 'hould /e ado)#ed #o '#ren*#hen #he rela#ion'hi) /e#+een F5I and dome'#i%
in0e'#men#' and 'u%h rela#ion'hi) ha' #o /e %om)lemen#ar- ra#her #han %om)e#i#i0e$ I#
i' al'o im)or#an# #o ado)# )oli%- mea'ure' #o dee)en #he dome'#i% %a)i#al mar7e#' /-
in%rea'in* 'a0in*' and de0elo)in* a '#ron* dome'#i% in'#i#u#ional in0e'#or /a'e and
'#ren*#henin* #he )ruden#ial 'u)er0i'ion o. .inan%ial mar7e#'$ 9ri0a#i@a#ion i' /ein*
u'ed 4+i#h *rea# 'u%%e'' in man- de0elo)in* %oun#rie'4 a' a 0ehi%le #o dee)en %a)i#al
mar7e#' and en%oura*e .orei*n dire%# in0e'#men#$ Chile all 1(( %oun#rie' '#ar#ed #he
)ro%e'' o. )ri0a#i@in* '#a#e-o+ned en#er)ri'e' and o)enin* u) )ri0a#e in0e'#men#
o))or#uni#- in #ele%ommuni%a#ion'4 air-line'4 #ouri'm4 and 'ome indu'#rie' 'u%h a'
)e#ro%hemi%al'4 %emen#4 and u#ili#ie'4 more e..or# 'hould /e )u# #o ex)edi#e #he
)ro%e'' #o+ard de%rea'in* #he role o. #he *o0ernmen# in #he mar7e# and )ro0idin*
/e##er in%en#i0e' and in'#i#u#ional re,uiremen#' .or )ri0a#e in0e'#men#$
!m)iri%al '#udie'
5
'u**e'# #ha# %a)i#al in.lo+' more /ene.i%ial and %rea#e le''
)ro/lem i. #he- are lon*-#erm4 and in #he .orm o. dire%# in0e'#men#4 indu%ed /-
5
For exam)le 'ee <aharum'hah4 e#$al 220063
)
*ro+#h )ro')e%#' o. #he e%onom-4 in0e'#ed in )h-'i%al a''e#' #han %on'umed and
dome'#i%all- indu%ed$ A' o))o'ed #o 'hor#-#erm )or#.olio in0e'#men#4 lon*-#erm F5I
ha' )o'i#i0e ')ill o0er e..e%# on #he e%onom-$ &hor#-#erm in0e'#men# and )or#.olio
in0e'#men#' are o.#en a''o%ia#ed +i#h in%rea'e in %on'um)#ion and %au'e .ra*ili#- in
#he .inan%ial '-'#em'$ 8e%en#l-4 #he 1(( %oun#rie' ha0e +i#ne''ed 'hor#-#erm
in0e'#men# /oom in e,ui#- and real e'#a#e mar7e#' and o#her lo+ )rodu%#i0i#- and
non-#rada/le 'e%#or$ &u%h in0e'#men# ma- re'ul# in )ro/lem o. %a)i#al ine..i%ien%- and
ma- hinder e%onomi% *ro+#h #hrou*h ex#ernali#- emana#ed durin* /o#h #he 'ur*e and
'udden re0er'al' 2<aharum'hah: 20064 ) 13$ Thu'4 i# i' im)or#an# .or 1(( %oun#rie'
#o im)ro0e #he ,uali#- o. F5I #ha# #he- %an a##ra%#$ Theor-
6
al'o 'u**e'#' #ha#
un%er#ain %a)i#al .lo+' and a more 0ola#ile )ro.ile o. F5I in.lo+' are *ro+#h
re#ardin*$ A%%ordin*l-4 a 7e- )oli%- o)#ion i' #o main#ain a '#ead- '#ream o. .orei*n
%a)i#al .lo+' and #o minimi@e #he .lu%#ua#ion' in #he'e in.lo+'$
The ne+ +a0e o. *lo/ali@a#ion '+ee)in* #hrou*h #he +orld ha' in#en'i.ied #he
%om)e#i#ion .or F5I amon* de0elo)in* %oun#rie'$ Thu' %on%en#ra#ed e..or#' are
needed a# /o#h na#ional and re*ional le0el in order #o a##ra%# 'i*ni.i%an# F5I .lo+' #o
#he 1(( %oun#rie' and im)ro0e )ro')e%#' .or 'u'#ained *ro+#h and de0elo)men#$
1(( %oun#rie' 'hould +or7 #o*e#her #o de'i*n and .ormula#e ade,ua#e )oli%ie' #o
a##ra%# '#a/le in0e'#men# .lo+'$ The- mu'# #a7e )oli%- mea'ure' #ha# +ould
'u/'#an#iall- enlar*e and di0er'i.- #heir e%onomi% /a'e4 )oli%ie' #ha# +ould im)ro0e
lo%al '7ill' and /uild u) a '#o%7 o. human %a)i#al re%our'e' %a)a/ili#ie'4 enhan%e
e%onomi% '#a/ili#- and li/erali@e #heir mar7e# in order #o /ene.i# .rom lon*-#erm F5I
in.lo+'$
The re%en# )a##ern o. F5I .lo+' #o 1(( %oun#rie' ha' /een #o+ard #he oil
'e%#or$ A##ra%#in* F5I #o #he ex#ra%#i0e 'e%#or4 i$e oil 'e%#or4 )ro0ed no# #o /e *ro+#h
enhan%in* a' mu%h a' o#her )rodu%#i0e 'e%#or'
7
$ >il 'e%#or i' o.#en an en%la0e 'e%#or
+i#h li##le /a%7+ard and in+ard lin7a*e' +i#h o#her 'e%#or'$ The 1(( %oun#rie'
%ould /ene.i# .rom in%rea'ed F5I in#o #he oil 'e%#or i. #he 'e%#or i' li/erali@ed and
in#e*ra#ed in#o #he e%onom-$
1ro+#h enhan%in* )oli%ie' %ou)led +i#h 'ound ma%roe%onomi% )oli%ie' .o'#er
a heal#h- ra#e o. re#urn' #o in0e'#men# and hen%e a##ra%# F5I$ To maximi@e #he /ene.i#
o. F5I 1(( %oun#rie' 'hould e'#a/li'h in0e'#men# a*en%ie'4 im)ro0e #he lo%al
6
?en'in7 and Morri''e- 220013
7
&ee A7inlo 220043$
+
re*ula#or- en0ironmen#4 de0elo) #he lo%al .inan%ial mar7e#4 and enhan%e #ran')aren%-
in ma%roe%onomi% )oli%ie'$ A 'ound and #ran')aren# le*al '-'#em *o0ernin* .inan%ial
#ran'a%#ion 'hould /e )u# in )la%e$ A %en#ral /od- or in'#i#u#ion 'hould /e e'#a/li'hed
#o )romo#e and mar7e# in0e'#men# o))or#uni#- and a##ra%# *enuine F5I$
Finall-4 #he'e .indin*' ma- )ro0ide u'e.ul in.orma#ion .or #he .ormula#ion o. a
*eneral '#ra#e*- #ha# %on'ider 1(( %oun#rie' a' /lo%7 +hen ne*o#ia#in* /u'ine''
deal' and a##ra%# .orei*n dire%# in0e'#men#$ I# i' 0er- di..i%ul# .or a 'mall %oun#r-4 +i#h
limi#ed dome'#i% mar7e# #o e'#a/li'h a 0ia/le %a)i#al mar7e# and a##ra%# lar*e-'%ale
in0e'#men#$ A%%ordin*l-4 mone#ar- %oo)era#ion i' re,uired and re*ional %a)i#al
mar7e# 'hould /e 'u))or#ed and in0e'#men# o))or#uni#- 'hould /e )romo#ed a# #he
re*ional le0el$
,
*e$erences
A/adir4 Larim M and Ta-lor4 A$ M$ 19994 M>n #he 5e.ini#ion' o. (o-in#e*ra#ionG
Bournal o. Time &erie' Anal-'i'4 20 223$
A7inlo4 A$ 2004 GForei*n dire%# in0e'#men# and *ro+#h in Ai*eria: An em)iri%al
in0e'#i*a#ion4G Bournal o. 9oli%- Modelin* 264 627K639
Arellano4 M$4 and <ond4 &$ 8$ 219913$ G&ome Te'#' o. &)e%i.i%a#ion .or 9anel 5a#a:
Mon#e (arlo !0iden%e and an A))li%a#ion #o !m)lo-men# !,ua#ion'4G 8e0ie+ o.
!%onomi% &#udie'4 54 277-297$
<ahraumahah4 A$Y and M$A$ Thanoon 220063 GForei*n (a)i#al .lo+ and e%onomi% *ro+#h
in !a'# A'ian (oun#rie'G 56ina Economic 7evie.,17 220063 70-3$
<arro4 8$ B$ and X$ &ala-i-Mar#in4 19954 !%onomi% 1ro+#h4 Ae+ Vor7: M%1ra+-6ill$
<arro4 8 B$4 2199134 G!%onomi% 1ro+#h in a (ro'' &e%#ion o. (oun#rie'4G Huar#erl-
Bournal o. !%onomi%' Wol$ 1064 Ao$ 24 ))$ 407 - 443$
<arro4 8 B$4 and Xa0ier &ala-i-Mar#in4 2199534 !%onomi% 1ro+#h4 M%1ra+-6ill4 <o'#on$
<en*oa4 M$ and <lan%a &an%he@-8o/le' 2200334 GForei*n dire%# in0e'#men#4 e%onomi%
.reedom and *ro+#h: ne+ e0iden%e .rom ?a#in Ameri%a4G !uro)ean Bournal o. 9oli#i%al
!%onom-4 Wol$ 19 220033 529K545
<ha'in4 A$4 Bun4 L$ and 9$ !%onomu4 19944 =A''e''in* #he &u'#aina/ili#- o. Forei*n
5ire%# In0e'#men# Flo+'=4 Corld <an74 In#erna#ional !%onomi%' 5e)ar#men#$
<u%7le-4 9$ B$4 B$ (le**4 and ($ Can* 220023: MThe im)a%# o. in+ard F5I on #he
)er.orman%e o. (hine'e manu.a%#urin* .irm'4N Bournal o. In#erna#ional <u'ine''
&#udie'4 332434 637K655$
(ar7o0i%4 M$ and 8$ ?e0ine 2200234 R5oe' Forei*n 5ire%# In0e'#men# A%%elera#e
!%onomi% 1ro+#hZF Cor7in* 9a)er 2Eni0er'i#- o. Minne'o#a 5e)ar#men# o. Finan%e4
a0aila/le a#: +++DD''rn$%omDa/'#ra%#O3149243$
(hoe4 B$ I$ 2200334 G5o Forei*n 5ire%# In0e'#men# and 1ro'' 5ome'#i% In0e'#men#
9romo#e !%onomi% 1ro+#hZG4 8e0ie+ o. 5e0elo)men# !%onomi%'4 74 14 44K57$
(hoi4 I$4 2001$ Eni# roo# #e'#' .or )anel da#a$ Bournal o. In#erna#ional Mone- and
Finan%e 204 249-272$
5eMello4 ?$8$4 Br$ 219973$ Forei*n dire%# in0e'#men# in de0elo)in* %oun#rie': A
'ele%#i0e 'ur0e-$ Bournal o. 5e0elo)men# &#udie'4 342134 1K34$
5eMello4 ?$8$4 Br$ 219993$ Forei*n dire%# in0e'#men#-led *ro+#h: !0iden%e .rom #ime
'erie' and )anel da#a$ >x.ord !%onomi% 9a)er'4 512134 133K151$
5i%7e-4 5$ A$4 Ban'en4 5$ C$ and Thorn#on4 5$ ($ 219913$ MA 9rimer on (oin#e*ra#ion
+i#h An A))li%a#ion #o Mone- and In%omeN4 8e0ie+ Federal 8e'er0e <an7 o. &T$
?oui'4 73 2234 5-7$
!??!84 M$4 9$ 6AI&&4 and L$ &T!IA!8 220053 GForei*n 5ire%# In0e'#men# in #he
Finan%ial &e%#or: The !n*ine o. 1ro+#h .or (en#ral and !a'#ern !uro)eZG
-
!uro)aIn'#i#u# Cor7in* 9a)er Ao$ 694 Wienna Eni0er'i#- o. !%onomi%' and <u'ine''
Admini'#ra#ion$
!n*le4 8$ F$ and Voo4 <$&$4197$ Fore%a'#in* and Te'#in* in (oin#e*ra#ed &-'#em'4
Bournal o. !%onome#ri%' 354 143-59$
1ran*er4 ($ C4 B$ 21903 ?on* memor- rela#ion'hi)' and #he a**re*a#ion o. d-nami%
model'$ Bournal o. !%onome#ri%'$ 144 227-3$
1ran*er4 ($ C$ B$ 219693$ In0e'#i*a#in* %au'al rela#ion' /- e%onome#ri% model' and
%ro''-')e%#ral me#hod'$ !%onome#ri%a4 354 424K43$
1ran*er4 ($C$ B$4 191$ &ome )ro)er#ie' o. #ime 'erie' da#a and #heir u'e in e%onome#ri%
model ')e%i.i%a#ion$ Bournal o. !%onome#ri%' 164 121-30$
1ui'in*er4 &$4 19924 G8ehor#i% and 8eali#- in In#erna#ional <u'ine'': A no#e on #he
!..e%#i0ene'' o. In%en#i0e'G4 Tran'na#ional (or)ora#ion'4 14 )) 111-23$
6an'en4 6$ and B$ 8and4 20064 G>n #he (au'al ?in7' /e#+een F5I and 1ro+#h in
5e0elo)in* (oun#rie'G4 Corld 5e0elo)men# 294 21-41$
6ardi4 L$4 2000$ Te'#in* .or &#a#ionari#- in 6e#ero*eneou' 9anel 5a#a$ !%onome#ri%
Bournal 34 14K61$
6ol#@-!a7in4 5$4 Ae+e-4 C$ and 8o'en 6$ &$4 199$ The re0enue'-ex)endi#ure nexu':
e0iden%e .rom lo%al *o0ernmen# da#a$ In#erna#ional !%onomi% 8e0ie+ 304 415- 29$
6ol#@-!a7in4 5ou*la'4 Chi#ne- Ae+e-4 and 6ar0e- &$ 8o'en4 21934 M!'#ima#in*
We%#or Au#ore*re''ion' +i#h 9anel 5a#a4N !%onome#ri%a 564 Ao$ 64 Ao0em/er4 ))$ 1371
- 1395$
6'iao4 ($ 2200334 Analysis o$ Panel Data4 (am/rid*e: (am/rid*e Eni0er'i#- 9re''$
Im4 L$&$4 9e'aran4 M$6$4 &hin4 V$4 2003$ GTe'#in* .or uni# roo#' in he#ero*eneou'
)anel'G4 Bournal o. !%onome#ri%' 1154 53-74$
IMF 2199334 G<alan%e o. 9a-men#' ManualG Fi.#h !di#ion 2Ca'hin*#on4 5$($4
In#erna#ional Mone#ar- Fund4 19933
Bohan'en4 &$4 19$ &#a#i'#i%al anal-'i' o. %oin#e*ra#ion 0e%#or'$ Bournal o. !%onomi%'
5-nami%4 124 231-54$
?en'in74 8$4 and >$ Morri''e- 220013$ MForei*n 5ire%# In0e'#men#: Flo+'4 Wola#ili#- and
1ro+#h in 5e0elo)in* (oun#rie'$N Eni0er'i#- o. Ao##in*ham4 (8!5IT 8e'ear%h 9a)er$
?e0ine4 A$4 ?in4 ($ F$4 (hu4 ($ &$4 2002$ Eni# roo# #e'#' in )anel da#a: a'-m)#o#i% and
.ini#e-'am)le )ro)er#ie'$ Bournal o. !%onome#ri%' 104 1-24$
?i)'e-4 8$4 1999$ The lo%a#ion and %hara%#eri'#i%' o. E$&$ a..ilia#e' in A'ia$ A<!8
Cor7in* 9a)er Ao$ 676$ (am/rid*e4 MA
?o0e4 B$4 ?a*e-6idal*o4 F$4 2000$ Anal-'in* #he de#erminan#' o. E& dire%# in0e'#men# in
Mexi%o$ A))lied !%onomi%' 324 1259K 1267$
Maddala4 1$&$4 Cu4 &$C$4 1999$ (om)ara#i0e '#ud- o. uni# roo# #e'#' +i#h )anel da#a
and a ne+ 'im)le #e'#$ >x.ord <ulle#in o. !%onomi%' and &#a#i'#i%' 61$
/
Aair-8ei%her#4 E'ha and 5iana Ceinhold 220013 G(au'ali#- #e'#' .or %ro''-%oun#r-
)anel': a ne+ loo7 a# F5I and e%onomi% *ro+#h in de0elo)in* %oun#rie'$G >x.ord
<ulle#in o. !%onomi%' and &#a#i'#i%'4 63 2234 2001$
>/+ona4 M$4 2001$ 5e#erminan#' o. F5I and #heir im)a%# on e%onomi% *ro+#h in
E*anda$ A.ri%an 5e0elo)men# 8e0ie+ 134 46K 1$
9edroni4 9$4 1997$ 9anel %oin#e*ra#ion4 a'-m)#o#i% and .ini#e 'am)le )ro)er#ie' o.
)ooled #ime 'erie' #e'#'4 +i#h an a))li%a#ion #o #he 999 h-)o#he'i': ne+ 8e'ul#'$ Indiana
Eni0er'i#-4 Cor7in* 9a)er in !%onomi%'4 5e%em/er$
9edroni4 9$4 1999$ (ri#i%al Walue' .or (oin#e*ra#ion Te'#' in 6e#ero*eneou' 9anel' +i#h
Mul#i)le 8e*re''or'$ >x.ord <ulle#in o. !%onomi%' and &#a#i'#i%' 614 653K67$
9erron4 9$4 1991$ Te'#in* (on'i'#en%- +i#h War-in* &am)lin* Fre,uen%-$ !%onome#ri%
Theor- 74 341-6
&adi74 Ali4 and <ol/ol4 Ali$ 20014 (a)i#al Flo+'4 F5I4 and Te%hnolo*- &)illo0er': !0iden%e
.rom Ara/ (oun#rie'$ Corld 5e0elo)men#$ 29 2123: 2111-2125$
Tun*4 &$4 (ho4 &$4 2001$ 5e#erminan#' o. re*ional in0e'#men# de%i'ion' in (hina: an
e%onome#ri% model o. #ax in%en#i0e )oli%-$ 8e0ie+ o. Huan#i#a#i0e Finan%e and
A%%oun#in* 174 167K15$
EA(TA5 2199634 Corld In0e'#men# 8e)or#$ Eni#ed Aa#ion' (on.eren%e on Trade and
5e0elo)men#$ Ae+ Vor7 and 1ene0a4 1996$
EA(TA5 2200534 Corld In0e'#men# 8e)or#$ Tran'na#ional (or)ora#ion' and #he
In#erna#ionali@a#ion o. 8[54 Eni#ed Aa#ion' (on.eren%e on Trade and 5e0elo)men#$
Ae+ Vor7 and 1ene0a4 2005$
Corld <an7$220053 Corld 5e0elo)men# 8e)or#$ GA <e##er In0e'#men# (lima#e For
!0er-oneG4 The Corld <an74 Ca'hin*#on 5$ ($4 2005$
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