Brazil´s Economic

Chart Pack

1
I. Inflation

2
Inflation Convergence to Targets

Year Target Regulation Effective

1999 8% ± 2pp Res. 2615, 6/30/99 8.9%
2000 6% ± 2pp Res. 2615, 6/30/99 6.0%
2001 4% ± 2pp Res. 2615, 6/30/99 7.7%
2002 3.5% ± 2pp Res. 2744, 6/28/00 12.5%
3.25% ± 2pp* Res. 2842, 6/28/01
4% ± 2.5pp Res. 2972, 6/27/02 9.3%
2003
8.5% (adjusted target) Open Letter to the Min. of Finance, 1/21/03
3.75% ± 2.5pp* Res. 2972, 6/27/02
2004
5.5% ± 2.5pp Res. 3108, 6/25/03 7.6%
2005 4.5% ± 2.5pp** Res. 3108, 6/25/03 5.7%
2006 4.5% ± 2pp Res. 3210, 6/30/04 3.1%
2007 4.5% ± 2pp Res. 3291, 6/23/05 4.5%
2008 4.5% ± 2pp Res. 3378, 6/29/06 5.9%
2009 4.5% ± 2pp Res. 3463, 6/26/07
2010 4.5% ± 2pp Res. 3584, 7/1/08
2011 4.5% ± 2pp Res. 3748, 6/30/09
* target reviewed in the subsequent Resolution
** 5.1% objective defined in the Copom minutes (Sep/04)

3
IPCA (12m Change)

IPCA (accumulated in 12 months) market

expectations*
10

Sep 09:
8 4.34% 2009:
4.29%*
% p.a.

0
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10

Sources: IBGE and BCB * Oct 9 4

Core IPCA Inflation

12
exclusion
11
smoothed
10 non-smoothed
9
8
%

7
6
5
4
3
2
Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec Sep
03 04 04 05 05 06 06 06 07 07 08 08 08 09

Source: BCB 5
IPCA Inflation Expectations

6.0

5.5

5.0
2009
%

4.5 2010
smoothed
4.0 12-month
ahead
3.5

3.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Oct*
07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09

Source: BCB * Oct 9 6

Wholesale Prices
12m cummulative change
40 16
agricultural (lhs) 14
30 industrial (rhs) 12
10
20
8
%

10 6

%
4
0
2
0
-10
-2
-20 -4
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Sep
07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09

7
II. Fiscal Policy

8
Consolidated Public Sector Primary Surplus
7
avg. 1994-Jun/95
6 4.77%
5 avg. 2003-Dec/08
avg. 1999-2002 4.11%
4 2.91%
% of GDP

1 Aug 09
1.59%
0

-1
avg. Jul/95-1998
-2 -0.08%
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

9
Consolidated Public Sector Borrowing
Requirements (Nominal)
8

5
% of GDP

Aug 09
4 3.53
3

0
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Aug
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Source: BCB 10
Public Sector Net Debt: Trend
56.9
57
55 1Q 02 – 2Q 09 (quarterly data)
53
market
51
expectations
49 (annual data)*
47
% of GDP

2Q 09
45 43.2
43
41
39
37
35 2013
33 36.2
31
1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 2009 2012
02 02 03 04 05 05 06 07 08 08

Source: BCB * October 9 11

III. External Sector

12
Current Account
US$ billion

% of GDP
US$ bi (left)
% of GDP (right)

Source: BCB *Estimate 13

Trade Balance
200 12-month accumulated
180
160
181.4
140
US$ billion

120 155.7
100 exports
80 12-month
surplus:
60 US$ 26.6 bn
imports
40
20
0
JanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJan Sep
99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09

Source: MDIC 14
 %

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Brazil 100
USA
Japan
India
Australia
Colombia
UK
Argentina
Turkey
Spain
Uruguay
Peru
Russia

Sources: IMF and WTO

France
Italy
Venezuela
Brazil: a (very) Closed Economy

Canada
Portugal
Bolivia
Ecuador
Mexico
China
Chile
(exports of goods+imports of goods)/GDP - 2007

Germany
Philippines
Korea
Switzerland
Paraguay
15
Brazil: …with Fairly Diversified Trading Relations
12-month cumulative exports through September

others Latin America

18.7% and the Caribbean
23.4%

USA, including
Puerto Rico
11.0%

European
Union
Asia (exc Middle East)
22.6%
24.3%

Source: MDIC 16
Brazil: Export Import Composition
12-month cumulative exports through September

semimanufactured products
13.3%

manufactured
products
45.2%

primary
products
41.5%

Source: MDIC 17
Brazilian Exports in 2008 – Main Destinations
60
share in the exports
50 growth rate in 2008
average growth rate
40
%

30

20

10

0
European

East
Union

Europe
Eastern

Asia
Middle

Africa
Nafta

Aladi

regions
other
Sources: BCB and MDIC 18
Brazilian Exports: Main Products in 2008
2008 2007 Growth
Products
US$ Million % of Total US$ Million % of Total US$ Million %
Primary Products 73,028 36.89% 51,596 32.12% 21,432 41.54%
Iron ore 16,539 8.36% 10,558 6.57% 5,981 56.65%
Raw oil 13,556 6.85% 8,905 5.54% 4,651 52.22%
Soy 10,952 5.53% 6,709 4.18% 4,243 63.24%
Meat (chicken) 5,822 2.94% 4,217 2.63% 1,605 38.04%
Soy byproducts 4,364 2.20% 2,957 1.84% 1,407 47.57%
Cofee 4,131 2.09% 3,378 2.10% 753 22.30%
Meat (Beef) 4,006 2.02% 3,486 2.17% 520 14.93%
Tobacco 2,683 1.36% 2,194 1.37% 489 22.29%
Semi-manufactured products 27,073 13.68% 21,800 13.57% 5,273 24.19%
Iron or steel products 4,002 2.02% 2,340 1.46% 1,662 71.04%
Wood chemical moisture 3,901 1.97% 3,012 1.87% 889 29.52%
Raw sugar cane 3,650 1.84% 3,130 1.95% 520 16.61%
Gross melted iron and "Spiegel" iron 3,145 1.59% 1,867 1.16% 1,278 68.48%
Iron alloys 2,307 1.17% 1,465 0.91% 842 57.49%
Soy oil (crude) 1,985 1.00% 1,222 0.76% 763 62.43%
Leather and skins 1,867 0.94% 2,185 1.36% -318 -14.55%
Manufactured 92,682 46.82% 83,943 52.25% 8,739 10.41%
Planes 5,495 2.78% 4,719 2.94% 776 16.45%
Cars 4,916 2.48% 4,653 2.90% 262 5.64%
Parts and components for vehicles and tractors 3,510 1.77% 3,186 1.98% 324 10.16%
Fuel oil 2,964 1.50% 2,292 1.43% 672 29.32%
Transmitter or receiver devices and components 2,550 1.29% 2,353 1.46% 197 8.36%
Ethanol 2,390 1.21% 1,478 0.92% 912 61.75%
Heavy vehicles 2,176 1.10% 2,054 1.28% 122 5.92%
Energy generators and components 2,167 1.09% 1,707 1.06% 459 26.92%
Tractors 1,956 0.99% 1,575 0.98% 382 24.23%
Laminates (iron or steel) 1,921 0.97% 2,532 1.58% -611 -24.14%
Shoes, parts and components 1,881 0.95% 1,912 1.19% -30 -1.59%
Refined sugar 1,833 0.93% 1,971 1.23% -137 -6.96%
Tractors, bulldozers and other vehicles 1,738 0.88% 1,508 0.94% 229 15.20%
Motor parts for vehicles 1,660 0.84% 1,615 1.01% 45 2.79%
Pumps, compressors, fans and parts 1,654 0.84% 1,568 0.98% 86 5.48%
Gasoline 1,653 0.84% 1,838 1.14% -184 -10.03%
Oxides and hidroxides of aluminum 1,547 0.78% 1,294 0.81% 252 19.50%
Others (Including Adjustments) 5,159 2.61% 3,310 2.06% 1,849 55.86%
Total 197,942 100.00% 160,649 100.00% 37,293 23.21%

Source: MDIC 19
Brazilian Imports: Main Products in 2008
Products 2008 2007 Growth
US$ Million % of Total US$ Million % of Total US$ Million %
Primary Products 31,831 18.38% 21,774 18.05% 10,057 46.19%
Oil 16,391 9.46% 11,989 9.94% 4,402 36.72%
Black coal 2,782 1.61% 1,526 1.26% 1,257 82.37%
Natural gas 2,715 1.57% 1,497 1.24% 1,218 81.38%
Wheat 1,874 1.08% 1,392 1.15% 482 34.60%
Semi-manufactured products 8,888 5.13% 5,660 4.69% 3,229 57.05%
Potassium chloride 3,828 2.21% 1,500 1.24% 2,328 155.20%
Copper cathodes 1,931 1.11% 1,619 1.34% 312 19.27%
Manufactured Products 132,478 76.49% 93,184 77.26% 39,293 42.17%
Cars 5,343 3.08% 3,121 2.59% 2,221 71.17%
Fuel oil 5,235 3.02% 3,062 2.54% 2,173 70.97%
Parts and components for vehicles and tractors 4,982 2.88% 3,573 2.96% 1,409 39.44%
Medicines 3,917 2.26% 3,196 2.65% 721 22.57%
Integrated circuits and microchips 3,536 2.04% 3,042 2.52% 495 16.27%
Heterocyclic compounds 2,387 1.38% 1,873 1.55% 514 27.46%
Fertilizers 2,357 1.36% 1,249 1.04% 1,108 88.65%
Naftas 2,346 1.35% 1,954 1.62% 392 20.05%
Measurement devices 2,289 1.32% 1,764 1.46% 524 29.71%
Integrated circuits and microchips 3,536 2.04% 3,042 2.52% 495 16.27%
Turbojets, plane engines and parts 2,235 1.29% 1,656 1.37% 580 35.00%
Transmitter or receiver devices and components 2,085 1.20% 1,274 1.06% 811 63.68%
Ball bearings and parts 2,079 1.20% 1,560 1.29% 519 33.28%
Parts for data processing machines 2,025 1.17% 1,559 1.29% 466 29.86%
Laminates 1,979 1.14% 996 0.83% 983 98.74%
Automatic machines for data processing 1,857 1.07% 1,575 1.31% 282 17.91%
Energy generators and components 1,671 0.97% 1,198 0.99% 474 39.55%
Pumps, compressors, fans and parts 1,661 0.96% 1,195 0.99% 466 39.01%
Parts and pieces for planes 1,605 0.93% 1,318 1.09% 287 21.80%
LCD devices 1,585 0.92% 1,132 0.94% 453 40.00%
Total 173,197 100.00% 120,617 100.00% 52,579 43.59%

Source: MDIC 20
International Reserves (ex-IMF Loans)

10/15
240 232.2
230.3
210
cash
180 liquidity
US$ billion

150

120

90

60

30

0
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09

Source: BCB 21
Reserves/Short-Term Debt

400

350

300

250
%

200

150

100

50

1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 2Q
01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09

Source: BCB 22
Net Foreign Direct Investment

12-month accumulated
50
45
40
35
US$ billion

30
25
20
15
10
5
Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Aug
03 03 03 04 04 05 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 08 09

Source: BCB 23
Net External Debt

175
150
1Q03:
125 165.2
100 4Q04:
135.7
US$ billion

75
50
25
0
-25 2Q09:
-28.0
-50

1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09

Source: BCB 24
External Sustainability Indicators

net external debt/exports net external debt/GDP

to –0.2* from 3.1 to –2.5%* from 32.7%

Source: BCB * Record low since the start of the series in

1970; 2009 – data through August.
25
IV. Credit and Banking Sector

26
Credit/GDP: Brazil vs. Mature Economies - 2007
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
% of GDP

1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
42.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Brazil* Sweden Spain US
Australia Canada UK

Source: World Bank *April 09 27

Credit Growth

460 Aug 09/Aug 08:

+18.4%
420 concessions(Aug 09/Aug08)
corporate: -4.8%
380 individuals: +13.1%
total: +1.2%
340
Jan 2004=100

300 individual
Aug09/Aug 08:
260 +9.8%

220
corporate
180

140

100
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09

Source: BCB 28
Banking System Capital Adequacy Ratio

20

18

16
%

14
minimum capital
base = 11%
12

10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: BCB 29
V. Economic Activity

30
GDP Growth
compared to same quarter of previous year
7.8
8
6.8
6.1 6.1 6.2
5.8
6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4
4.5 4.7 4.6
4.4
4 3.3 3.5
2.6 2.8 3.0
2.2
2 1.3
0.9 0.8
0.4
0

-1.2
-2 -1.8
1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q
03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09

Source: IBGE 31
Household Consumption

9 compared to same quarter of previous year

8 7.2 7.3
7 6.4 6.3
5.7 5.5 5.9 5.9
6 5.7
5.2 5.3 5.1
5 4.7 4.5
4.2 4.2
3.9 3.7
4 3.2
3 2.2
1.9
2 1.3
% 0.9
1 0.7

0
-1
-2 -1.5
-3
-3.1
-4
1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q
03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09

Source: IBGE 32
Fixed Capital Investment
compared to same quarter of previous year 19.7
18 16.6
15.216.015.4
14.013.4 13.4
14 12.4
9.210.19.0
10 8.0 7.5
6 4.8
2.5 3.1 3.9 3.8
1.5
2 0.5
%

-2
-3.7
-6
-6.9
-10 -8.1

-14
-14.0
-18 -17.0
1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q
03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09

Source: IBGE 33
Contribution of Domestic and External Demand
to GDP Growth
compared to same quarter of previous year
10 9.3
8.7 8.7
0.4 7.9
8 7.5
7.3 6.4 6.7
5.9 6.0
6 1.4 0.3 4.9
4.4 0.7
4.9 4.0
4 0.6
4.0 3.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 3.2
2.6
p.p.

2.9 3.0
2 2.4 2.5
0.8 1.2
0.1 0.7
0
0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2
-0.5
-1.9
-1.2
-2 domestic demand -1.8 -1.8-1.4 -1.8 -1.9
-1.9
-2.1 -2.6-2.5 -2.5
external demand
-4 -3.5

1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q
03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09

Sources: IBGE and BCB 34

Formal Employment
2.5

2.0 avg. 2004-2008: 1,415 thousand

1.5
million of jobs

2003: 645 thousand

1.0
avg.1995-2002: 49 thousand
0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Source: MTE 35
Retail Sales by Sector
vehicles and motorcycles furniture and appliances
200 Aug 09/ Aug 08: 9.4% (observed data) 230 Aug 09/ Aug 08: 0.6% (observed data)
3-month moving average, s.a., 2003=100

190
210
180
170 190
160
150 170
140 150
130
120 130
110
110
100
90 90
Jan SepMay Jan SepMay Jan SepMay Jan SepMay Aug Jan Sep MayJan Sep MayJan Sep MayJan Sep May Aug
01 01 02 03 03 04 05 05 06 07 07 08 09 01 01 02 03 03 04 05 05 06 07 07 08 09

150
supermarkets fabric, clothing and shoes
145 Aug 09/ Aug 08: 8.5% (observed data) 138 Aug 09/ Aug 08: -5.8% (observed data)
134
140
130
135
126
130
122
125
118
120
114
115
110
110
106
105
102
100
98
95 94
Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Aug Jan Sep MayJan Sep MayJan Sep MayJan Sep May Aug
01 01 02 03 03 04 05 05 06 07 07 08 09
01 01 02 03 03 04 05 05 06 07 07 08 09

Sources: IBGE and BCB 36

Retail Sales
160 3-month moving average

150
MM3m, dessaz., 2003 = 100

140

130

120

110

100

90 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Aug
03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09

Sources: IBGE and BCB 37

Industrial Production by Sector
205 capital goods 130 intermediate goods
3-month moving average, s.a., 2002=100

Aug 09/ Aug 08:-22.3% Aug 09/ Aug 08:-8.0%

185
120
165

145 110

125
100
105

85 90
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Aug Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Aug
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

durable consumer goods semi and non-durable goods

190 115
180 Aug 09/ Aug 08:-3.7% Aug 09/ Aug 08:-1.3%
170 110
160
150 105
140
130
120 100
110
100 95
90
80 90
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Aug Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Aug
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Source: IBGE 38
 Oil Production

PETROBRAS estimate Marlim Sul Espadarte

2.6 Tupi Pilot mod. 3 – P-56 mod. 3
Rio de Janeiro Project 100.000bpd
Espadarte 100.000bpd
mod. 2 Tupi Long-Term 100.000bpd 2.37
2.4 Test
100.000bpd Cidade Niterói 2.30 2.42
30.000bpd
Piranema Jabuti (FPSO) Roncador mod. 4
2.19 Jubarte
2.2 30.000bpd 100.000bpd P-62
P-57
millions bpd

Cachalote and
Cidade de Vitória 180.000bpd 100.000bpd
Baleia Franca
Golfinho mod. 2 FPSO Capixaba
2.0 100.000bpd 1.95 Frade 100.000bpd
100.000bpd
1.79 Parque das
1.8 Marlim Sul
mod. 2 Conchas
Roncador 100.000bpd
P-51
P-52 This curve does not include Tupi
180.000bpd
1.6 180.000bpd project production
Roncador Marlim Leste
P-54 P-53
1.4 180.000bpd 180.000bpd

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Petrobras 39
Crops Harvest

150
146.0
IBGE
estimate
140
133.1 134.1
million tons

130
123.6
119.3
120 117.0
112.6
110

100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

Source: IBGE * Sep 2009 40

Crop Estimates

Tons
2008 Crop 2009 Crop* % Change
Sugar-cane 653,181,799 657,395,419 0.6
Soybean 59,920,262 57,776,642 -3.6
Corn 58,740,765 50,832,197 -13.5
Manioc 26,567,653 26,949,427 1.4
Orange 18,675,805 18,482,427 -1.0
Rice 12,114,486 12,384,061 2.2
Wheat 6,030,600 5,096,708 -15.5
Cotton 3,995,095 3,322,055 -16.8
Potato 3,671,116 3,331,376 -9.3
Beans 3,407,906 3,653,894 7.2
Coffee 2,809,379 2,363,933 -15.9

Source:IBGE *estimate in January 2009 41

Brazil´s Economic
Chart Pack

42