2007928

Vermelding onderdeel organisatie

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WCTR 2007
Revival of the cost benefit analysis
for evaluating the city distribution
center concept?
Ron van Duin Hans Quak J esus Munuzuri
Delft University of Technology
RSM Erasmus University
University of Seville
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International Conference City Logistics 2007
Outline
Literature on urban consolidation Literature on urban consolidation
Case study Case study Zuidtangent Zuidtangent SHASH SHASH
Potential Potential effects effects city city distribution distribution center center
CDC CDC Effects Effects CBA CBA - -
Experiments Experiments
Conclusions Conclusions
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Urban consolidation
The key concept is that the volume of freight vehicles The key concept is that the volume of freight vehicles travelling travelling within urban areas could within urban areas could
be reduced through a more efficient utilization of vehicles: be reduced through a more efficient utilization of vehicles: higher load factors and fewer higher load factors and fewer
empty trips empty trips ( (Crainic Crainic et al. 2003) et al. 2003)
Policy practice still believe in the concept. Cities like The Ha Policy practice still believe in the concept. Cities like The Hague, Rotterdam, Groningen, gue, Rotterdam, Groningen,
Utrecht, Amsterdam & Arnhem have recognized and certified city d Utrecht, Amsterdam & Arnhem have recognized and certified city distributors istributors
Considerable Considerable costs costs involved involved with with the the construction construction and and operation operation of the of the transhipments transhipments
(Button & (Button & Pearman Pearman, 1981) , 1981)
City City distribution distribution centers centers lead lead a a laborious laborious life life (Van Duin, 1997) (Van Duin, 1997)
GVZ GVZ or or freight freight villages villages have been have been popular popular as as real real estate estate sources sources ( (Klaus Klaus, 2005) , 2005)
Our Our main main research research question question: :
Can Can a city a city distribution distribution center center be be socially socially beneficial beneficial from froma a cost cost benefit benefit perspective perspective? ?
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Case research: Amstelveen, Hoofdorp,
Haarlem, Schalkwijk & Schiphol
Amstelveen Amstelveen 179 shops 179 shops
Hoofddorp Hoofddorp 154 shops 154 shops
Haarlem Haarlem 566 shops 566 shops
Schalkwijk Schalkwijk 160 shops 160 shops
Schiphol Schiphol 68 shops 68 shops
Diepens Diepens & & Okkema Okkema (2005) showed (2005) showed
that freight traffic is possible that freight traffic is possible
without losing efficiencies for the without losing efficiencies for the
current bus services current bus services
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International Conference City Logistics 2007
3 alternatives
Zero Zero- -alternative alternative, current policy measures, distribution structures , current policy measures, distribution structures
remain remain
Commercial alternative Commercial alternative, commercial exploitable service based on free , commercial exploitable service based on free
market principles within the societal constraints & requirements market principles within the societal constraints & requirements, fair , fair
price competition price competition
Societal alternative Societal alternative, mainly focussed on demands of all stakeholders, , mainly focussed on demands of all stakeholders,
Budget neutral, contracting criteria: min. noise, min. emissions Budget neutral, contracting criteria: min. noise, min. emissions & &
min. damage on infrastructure min. damage on infrastructure
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International Conference City Logistics 2007
Potential effects
Separation of supply and return flows
Time profit shipper -> CDC
Bundling opportunities shipper->CDC
Shippers
Flexibility in deliverance of goods
Fleet optimization
Carriers
Flexibility of delivery
Longer lead-times supply of goods
Stock reduction at site
Entrepreneurs/shopkeepers
Reduction of traffic on main roads Province North-Holland
Reduction of city maintenance costs
Reduction of noise emissions
Reduction exhaust
Quality improvement of shopping area
Municipalities
Main Effects CDC Stakeholder Group
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Urban freight in tkm (2006
=100)
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CDC operations
Profit Profit
Price based on average time savings city access roads to Price based on average time savings city access roads to innercity innercity, 25*55 , 25*55
(driver)+25*75(truck) = 55 (driver)+25*75(truck) = 55 euro euro, B2B 18.20 euro/m , B2B 18.20 euro/m
3 3
, B2C 28.50 euro/m , B2C 28.50 euro/m
3 3
Average Average Storage Storage price price 5.50 euro per m 5.50 euro per m
3 (commercial 3 (commercial values values) )
Profit margin 10% Profit margin 10%
Costs Costs
20000m 20000m
2 2
, base year 357000 m , base year 357000 m
3 3
, 1250 , 1250 gpd gpd=>4000 max =>4000 max gdp gdp, 145 , 145 euro euro per m per m
2 2
, ,
connection to access roads pm 600000, maintenance roads 1 mill connection to access roads pm 600000, maintenance roads 1 million ion
Labour Labour costs costs: : driver driver+ +operations operations+ +administration administration, 40 , 40 people people, , growth growth 10% 10% leads leads to to
labour labour increase increase 3%, average 3%, average salary salary, 1600 euro/ , 1600 euro/month month
Truck Truck costs costs: : operations operations, ,purchase purchase, , maintenance maintenance, , fuel fuel, , insurance insurance, 173 , 173 movements movements/week, /week,
1 truck 1 truck delivers delivers 5.5 5.5 days days/week, /week, one one trip 2 trip 2 hours hours, , insurance insurance 0.25 per LU, 0.25 per LU, way way of of
financing financing 10% of 10% of total total costs costs
1:5 1:3 Fuel consumption
6000 5000 Maintenance/ year
175000 100000 Purchase
CAT 5 CAT 3
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Effects on public affairs
Reduction city maintenance costs: 1% Reduction city maintenance costs: 1%
infrastructure maintenance 2 million/year infrastructure maintenance 2 million/year
Emissions reductions: 8 km currently, Emissions reductions: 8 km currently,
max 3 km inner city and direct delivery max 3 km inner city and direct delivery
max 15 km. 1 kg PM max 15 km. 1 kg PM
10 10
300 300 euro euro, 1 kg , 1 kg
NO NO
X X
12 12 euro euro
Noise Noise reduction reduction, , exceeding exceeding 65 65 dBA dBA, ,
pro pro- -memorie memorie cost cost
0,05 0,08 0,06 0,03 0,03 PM
10
2,47 3,20 3,20 1,74 1,74 NO
x
Clean vehicle
(Euro 5)
0,29 0,47 0,34 0,17 0,17 PM
10
7,28 9,45 9,45 5,11 5,11 NO
x
Standard vehicle
(Euro 3)
Rest
Truck and
trailer Truck Light truck Van Emission grammes per km
Prevented Prevented emissions emissions for for each each year year
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Effects for commercial stakeholders
Flexibility Flexibility of of delivery delivery
Time window cost saving, 1 extra hour reductions min 2 persons, Time window cost saving, 1 extra hour reductions min 2 persons, 2x18pd 2x18pd
= 11232 yearly, too late arrival in a tour (Holguin = 11232 yearly, too late arrival in a tour (Holguin- -Verras Verras, 2007) , 2007)
Reduction of stock at site Reduction of stock at site
Stock space Stock space - -> selling space, not specified in CBA > selling space, not specified in CBA
Separation of supply and return flows Separation of supply and return flows
Current trucks return empty, Current trucks return empty, cdc cdc assume 25% return flows assume 25% return flows
Cost Cost reduction reduction by by clustering ( clustering (shippers shippers) )
SC SC before before cdc cdc can can be be organised organised more more efficiently efficiently, 11%. , 11%. Distribution Distribution
structures structures will will not not change change strongly strongly, 25% , 25% will will adjust adjust their their chains chains! Overall ! Overall
return return will will be be 0.11*0.25 = 2.75% 0.11*0.25 = 2.75%
Increase Increase of of flexibility flexibility (carriers) (carriers)
Fleet Fleet optimisation optimisation, , deliver deliver before before a deadline a deadline instead instead time time- -window window, min , min
savings savings 5% ( 5% (Quak Quak&Koster, 2007), &Koster, 2007), too late arrival in a tour (Holguin too late arrival in a tour (Holguin- -
Verras Verras, 2007) , 2007)
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Validation
5.5 % 5.5 % U A U A Operational costs Operational costs Other Other
nihil nihil U A U A Growth factor Growth factor
0.5 % 0.5 % C A C A Number of employees Number of employees
0.5 % 0.5 % C A C A Salary Salary Personnel cost Personnel cost
2.5 % 2.5 % U A U A Building and Infrastructure Building and Infrastructure
Nihil Nihil C A C A Average Fuel price Average Fuel price
0.12 % 0.12 % C A C A Costs vehicles Costs vehicles
0.16 % 0.16 % C A C A Insurance Insurance
nihil nihil C.V. C.V. Usage CDC Usage CDC
Effect Effect Assumption Assumption Operational costs Operational costs
CV = CV = certain certain value value, CA = , CA = Calulated Calulated assumption assumption, , UA UA= = Uncertain Uncertain assumption assumption
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Experiments (1)
100.000.000,00-
50.000.000,00-
0,00
50.000.000,00
100.000.000,00
150.000.000,00
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Total NetPresentValue Commercial
variant incl. profit
Total NetPresentValue Commercial
variant excl. profit
Total NetPresentValue Societal
variant
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Experiments (2)
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Price per M3 for delivery B2B
Commercial variant
Price per M3 for delivery B2B
Societal variant
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Conclusions
CBA provides insight under what circumstances and conditions the CBA provides insight under what circumstances and conditions the city city
distribution concept could operate distribution concept could operate
It takes into account the multi It takes into account the multi- -stakeholder environment stakeholder environment
Commercial success can only be established with a market share > Commercial success can only be established with a market share >30% 30%
In case of the In case of the Zuidtangent Zuidtangent it has appointed clearly directions for more it has appointed clearly directions for more
detailed research detailed research
Evaluation Evaluation of the city distribution concept of the city distribution concept should should not not be be judged judged after after one one
year year .the CBA shows .the CBA shows that that a a coule coule of of years years are are needed needed to to make make a a good good
evaluation evaluation
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International Conference City Logistics 2007
Thank you
..and dont forget about the nightlife!!!
Some researchers caught into ACTION
BE BE THERE THERE!!! !!!