The Tarrance Group (, 2014) Page 1

ME MO R A N D U M

TO: MIKE BOST FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE
NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE

FROM: DAVE SACKETT

RE: KEY FINDINGS FROM A SURVEY OF VOTER ATTITUDES IN ILLINOIS CD 12

DATE: APRIL 24, 2014
________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the Mike Bost for Congress Committee and the
National Republican Congressional Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter
attitudes in the Twelfth Congressional District of Illinois. These key findings are based on
telephone interviews with N=400 likely registered voters throughout district. Responses to this
survey were gathered April 21-23, 2014 and the margin of error associated with a sample of this
type is + 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

KEY FINDINGS

! The political environment that exists in this district is toxic for the Democrats and provides a
major advantage to Republicans and the Bost campaign:

! President Obamas job approval is very weak, with a thirty-seven percent (37%) approve and
fifty-six percent (56%) disapproval rating. Almost half the electorate (49%) indicate that they
strongly disapprove of the job he is doing.

! Governor Quinns image ratings are similarly very weak, with only 31% indicating that they
have a favorable impression of him, and fifty percent (50%) indicating that they have an
unfavorable impression of him.

! Views of the ACA mirror President Obamas job approval ratings, with fifty-eight percent
(58%) indicating that the disapprove of the ACA (46% strongly disapprove.)

! Republicans have a +2 advantage on the traditional generic ballot for Congress, and this
advantage rises to +11 on the motive generic ballot.

! Bost is already very well established as a candidate in the district, with sixty percent (60%)
name awareness and thirty-six percent (36%) favorable and 9% unfavorable rating. This
gives him a very solid 3.9 to 1 favorable to unfavorable ratio.

201 N Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688
(703) 836-8256 FAX
dsackett@tarrance.com
THE TARRANCE GROUP
www.tarrance.com
The Tarrance Group (, 2014) Page 2
! Democratic incumbent Bill Enyart has failed to establish himself in the district. Less than
four in ten district voters indicate they approve of the job he is doing as their Member of
Congress, and only just over one in four (27%) believe he has done a good enough job to
deserve re-election. Fully fifty percent (50%) of district voters indicate they believe it is time
for a new person.

! As a consequence of these factors, Bost has a +6 point lead on the trial ballot for Congress.
Forty-three percent (43%) indicate they would vote for Bost, while 37% would vote for
Enyart, 9% would vote for the Green Party candidate, and 11% are undecided on the primary
ballot test.

! Governor Quinns extraordinarily weak image and incumbency ratings also means that
Rauner maintains a significant advantage over Quinn on the gubernatorial ballot test, beyond
the +6 point win that the Republican had in this district against Quinn in the 2010 election.

# # #

Demographic

Republican - 31.0%
Democrat - 39.0%
Independent - 30.0%

White - 79.0%
African American - 12.2%
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