CASO PROJECT FINANCE

Construccion y operacin de Planta de generacion de Energia

Riesgos
1 Ingresos
2 Costos
3 Regulatorio
4 Contruccin

5 Costo de la Deuda
6 Ambiental
7 Poltico

Mitigante
Contrato de venta a LP
Calidad del contratante
Contrato de operacin LP
Experiencia del contratante
Experiencia (Es un Pas serio?)
Contrato Llave en Mano
Calidad (Experiencia y capacidad financiera del
contratante)
Swap tasa de inters
Licencia ambiental
Experiencia, Poliza de Riesgo Poltico

Check
ok
ok
ok
ok
ok
ok

ok
ok
ok

ESTADO DE RESULTADOS

2013

2014
33,104,916
10,200,000
22,904,916
7,500,000
15,404,916
50,948
8,400,000
7,055,864
2,328,435
4,727,429

2015
33,767,014
10,404,000
23,363,014
7,500,000
15,863,014
83,448
7,980,000
7,966,462
2,628,932
5,337,530

2016
34,442,355
10,612,080
23,830,275
7,500,000
16,330,275
151,926
7,476,000
9,006,200
2,972,046
6,034,154

150,000,000
150,000,000
150,000,000

5,094,833
2,720,952
150,000,000
7,500,000
142,500,000
150,315,785

11,594,711
2,775,371
150,000,000
15,000,000
135,000,000
149,370,082

18,790,460
2,830,878
150,000,000
22,500,000
127,500,000
149,121,339

105,000,000
105,000,000

838,356
99,750,000
100,588,356

855,123
93,450,000
94,305,123

872,226
87,150,000
88,022,226

Capital Suscrito y Pagado

Utilidades del Ejercicio
Utilidades de Periodos Anteriores

45,000,000
-

45,000,000
4,727,429

Total Patrimonio

45,000,000

49,727,429

45,000,000
5,337,530
4,727,429
55,064,959

45,000,000
6,034,154
10,064,959
61,099,113

150,000,000

150,315,785

149,370,082

149,121,339

Ingresos
- Costos de operacin

EBITDA
- Depreciaciones

Utilidad Operacional
Ingresos Financieros
- Gastos financieros

Utilidad Antes de Impuestos

- Impuestos 33%

Utilidad Neta
*

BALANCE GENERAL
Activos

Caja
Cuentas por Cobrar (Clientes)
Propiedad planta y Equipo
(-) Depreciacin Acumulada
PP&E neta
Total Activos

Pasivos

Cuentas x Pagar
Deuda financiera
Total Pasivos
Patrimonio

Total Pasivos + Patrimonio

CHECK

*
*

PARAMETOS DE PROYECCION
Variables Macro
Inflacion Americana
LIBOR
Ingresos
Precios (USD/MWh)
Crecimiento

2013

2014

2%
5%

2%
5%

26

2014
26,52
2%

2015
27,05
2%

2016
27,59
2%

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

33,104,916

33,767,014

34,442,355

2014
10,200,000
2%

2015
10,404,000
2%

2016
10,612,080
2%

2013

Ingresos
*

Costos de operacin
Costos de operacin
Crecimiento

Activos fijos
Capacidad instalada (MW)
Precio por MW instalado
Valor planta
Vida util

150
1,000,000
150,000,000
20

Activo bruto
Gasto depreciacin
Depreciacin acumulada
Activo neto

150,000,000
0
0
150,000,000

Deuda
Inversiones Totales
Porcentaje deuda 70%
% Equity 30%
Total Deuda

Total Capital

2016

2%
5%

Energia en firme
Capacidad planta 150
Porcentaje 95%

2015

2%
5%

2013
10,000,000

2013

2013
150,000,000

2014

150,000,000
7,500,000
7,500,000
142,500,000
2014

2015

150,000,000
7,500,000
15,000,000
135,000,000
2015

2016

150,000,000
7,500,000
22,500,000
127,500,000
2016

105,000,000
45,000,000

Saldo inicial
Desemboldo deuda
Amortizacion deuda
Saldo final
Gasto de intereses

0
105,000,000
0
105,000,000

105,000,000

99,750,000

93,450,000

5,250,000
99,750,000
8,400,000

6,300,000
93,450,000
7,980,000

6,300,000
87,150,000
7,476,000

% de amortizacin

100.0%

5,00%

6,00%

6,00%

Capital de trabajo
CxC
Rotacin

2013

CxP
Rotacin
*

Flujo de caja libre

Utilidad Operacional
- Impuestos
Utilidad Op. Desp Impuestos
+ Depreciaciones
FC bruto
- Incremento KTNO
- Inversion AF (Kapex)
FLUJO DE CAJA OPERACIONAL
- Deuda (Gastos financieros)
+ Desembolso de Deuda
- Amortizacion deuda
+ Capitalizaciones
+ Ingresos financieros
+ Ajuste de impuestos
FLUJO DE CAJA DEL PERIODO
+ Caja Inicial
CAJA FINAL
Variacion KTO

2015
2,775,371
30

2016
2,830,878
30

30

838,356
30

855,123
30

872,226
30

2014
15,404,916
5,083,622
10,321,294
7,500,000
17,821,294
1,882,596

2015
15,863,014
5,234,795
10,628,220
7,500,000
18,128,220
37,652

2016
16,330,275
5,388,991
10,941,284
7,500,000
18,441,284
38,405

15,938,698
8,400,000

18,090,568
7,980,000

18,402,879
7,476,000

5,250,000

6,300,000

6,300,000

50,948
2,755,187
5,094,833
5,094,833

83,448
2,605,862
6,499,878
5,094,833
11,594,711

151,926
2,416,944
7,195,749
11,594,711
18,790,460

2013

150,000,000
(150,000,000)
105,000,000
45,000,000

0
2013

2014

2015

2016

2,720,952
2,720,952

2,775,371
2,775,371

2,830,878
2,830,878

838,356
838,356

855,123
855,123

872,226
872,226

1,882,596
1,882,596

1,920,248
37,652

1,958,653
38,405

2013
2014
(150,000,000)
15,938,698
15,773,454
11,64% (WACC)
10,22%

2015
18,090,568

2016
18,402,879

6,499,878

7,195,749

Activos Corrientes Op
CxC
Inventarios

Total Activo Crriente Operacional

Pasivos Corrientes Op
Cuenta X P
Proveedores
Total Pasivo Crrte Op

KTO
Variacion KTNO
*

30

2014
2,720,952
30

RENTABILIDADES
Flujo de Caja Operacional
VNA
TIR proyecto
(TIO) en estos casos Ke
rentabilidad accionista
F.C. del accionista (KyFCPeriodo)
VNA

(45,000,000)
43,436,078

5,094,833

TIR Inversionista
18,62% (Ke)
(TIO) en estos casos Ke
10,22%
FCL / Serv.Deuda >= factor (1,5 adecuado)

CAPM = Ke = Rf + PRM +
Indicadores de Cobertura
Flujo de caja Libre (ajustado)
Servicio a la deuda

2013

Indicador de cobertura
(TIO) CAPM = Ke =
Rf +
PRM +

10,22%
3,75%
6,43%
0.75

2014
18,693,885
13,650,000

2015
20,696,430
14,280,000

2016
20,819,823
13,776,000

1.4

1.4

1.5

1,65%

2017
35,131,202
10,824,322
24,306,880
7,500,000
16,806,880
222,150
6,972,000
10,057,030
3,318,820
6,738,210

2018
35,833,826
11,040,808
24,793,018
7,500,000
17,293,018
289,209
6,384,000
11,198,227
3,695,415
7,502,812

2019
36,550,502
11,261,624
25,288,878
7,500,000
17,788,878
358,980
5,712,000
12,435,858
4,103,833
8,332,025

2020
37,281,512
11,486,857
25,794,656
7,500,000
18,294,656
437,096
5,040,000
13,691,751
4,518,278
9,173,473

2021
38,027,143
11,716,594
26,310,549
7,500,000
18,810,549
523,680
4,368,000
14,966,229
4,938,856
10,027,373

2022
38,787,685
11,950,926
26,836,760
7,500,000
19,336,760
613,591
3,696,000
16,254,350
5,363,936
10,890,415

25,639,497
2,887,496
150,000,000
30,000,000
120,000,000
148,526,993

32,202,353
2,945,246
150,000,000
37,500,000
112,500,000
147,647,599

39,593,622
3,004,151
150,000,000
45,000,000
105,000,000
147,597,773

47,825,525
3,064,234
150,000,000
52,500,000
97,500,000
148,389,758

56,910,496
3,125,519
150,000,000
60,000,000
90,000,000
150,036,014

65,807,660
3,188,029
150,000,000
67,500,000
82,500,000
151,495,689

889,670
79,800,000
80,689,670

907,464
71,400,000
72,307,464

925,613
63,000,000
63,925,613

944,125
54,600,000
55,544,125

963,008
46,200,000
47,163,008

982,268
36,750,000
37,732,268

45,000,000
6,738,210
16,099,113
67,837,323

45,000,000
7,502,812
22,837,323
75,340,135

45,000,000
8,332,025
30,340,135
83,672,160

45,000,000
9,173,473
38,672,160
92,845,633

45,000,000
10,027,373
47,845,633
102,873,007

45,000,000
10,890,415
57,873,007
113,763,421

148,526,993

147,647,599

147,597,773

148,389,758

150,036,014

151,495,689

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2017
28,14
2%

2018
28,71
2%

2019
29,28
2%

2020
29,87
2%

2021
30,46
2%

2022
31,07
2%

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

35,131,202

35,833,826

36,550,502

37,281,512

38,027,143

38,787,685

2017
10,824,322
2%

2018
11,040,808
2%

2019
11,261,624
2%

2020
11,486,857
2%

2021
11,716,594
2%

2022
11,950,926
2%

2017

150,000,000
7,500,000
30,000,000
120,000,000
2017

2018

150,000,000
7,500,000
37,500,000
112,500,000
2018

2019

150,000,000
7,500,000
45,000,000
105,000,000
2019

2020

150,000,000
7,500,000
52,500,000
97,500,000
2020

2021

150,000,000
7,500,000
60,000,000
90,000,000
2021

2022

150,000,000
7,500,000
67,500,000
82,500,000
2022

87,150,000

79,800,000

71,400,000

63,000,000

54,600,000

46,200,000

7,350,000
79,800,000
6,972,000

8,400,000
71,400,000
6,384,000

8,400,000
63,000,000
5,712,000

8,400,000
54,600,000
5,040,000

8,400,000
46,200,000
4,368,000

9,450,000
36,750,000
3,696,000

7,00%

8,00%

8,00%

8,00%

8,00%

9,00%

2017
2,887,496
30

2018
2,945,246
30

2019
3,004,151
30

2020
3,064,234
30

2021
3,125,519
30

2022
3,188,029
30

889,670
30

907,464
30

925,613
30

944,125
30

963,008
30

982,268
30

2017
16,806,880
5,546,270
11,260,610
7,500,000
18,760,610
39,173

2018
17,293,018
5,706,696
11,586,322
7,500,000
19,086,322
39,957

2019
17,788,878
5,870,330
11,918,548
7,500,000
19,418,548
40,756

2020
18,294,656
6,037,236
12,257,419
7,500,000
19,757,419
41,571

2021
18,810,549
6,207,481
12,603,068
7,500,000
20,103,068
42,402

2022
19,336,760
6,381,131
12,955,629
7,500,000
20,455,629
43,250

18,721,437
6,972,000

19,046,365
6,384,000

19,377,793
5,712,000

19,715,849
5,040,000

20,060,665
4,368,000

20,412,379
3,696,000

7,350,000

8,400,000

8,400,000

8,400,000

8,400,000

9,450,000

222,150
2,227,451
6,849,037
18,790,460
25,639,497

289,209
2,011,281
6,562,856
25,639,497
32,202,353

358,980
1,766,497
7,391,269
32,202,353
39,593,622

437,096
1,518,958
8,231,903
39,593,622
47,825,525

523,680
1,268,626
9,084,971
47,825,525
56,910,496

613,591
1,017,195
8,897,165
56,910,496
65,807,660

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2,887,496
2,887,496

2,945,246
2,945,246

3,004,151
3,004,151

3,064,234
3,064,234

3,125,519
3,125,519

3,188,029
3,188,029

889,670
889,670

907,464
907,464

925,613
925,613

944,125
944,125

963,008
963,008

982,268
982,268

1,997,826
39,173

2,037,782
39,957

2,078,538
40,756

2,120,109
41,571

2,162,511
42,402

2,205,761
43,250

2017
18,721,437

2018
19,046,365

2019
19,377,793

2020
19,715,849

2021
20,060,665

2022
20,412,379

6,849,037

6,562,856

7,391,269

8,231,903

9,084,971

8,897,165

2017
20,948,887
14,322,000

2018
21,057,646
14,784,000

2019
21,144,289
14,112,000

2020
21,234,807
13,440,000

2021
21,329,291
12,768,000

2022
21,429,574
13,146,000

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

2023
39,563,439
12,189,944
27,373,495
7,500,000
19,873,495
701,935
2,940,000
17,635,430
5,819,692
11,815,738

2024
40,354,708
12,433,743
27,920,965
7,500,000
20,420,965
784,070
2,100,000
19,105,035
6,304,661
12,800,373

2025
41,161,802
12,682,418
28,479,384
7,500,000
20,979,384
860,874
1,092,000
20,748,258
6,846,925
13,901,333

2026
41,985,038
12,936,066
29,048,972
7,500,000
21,548,972
1,012,247
22,561,219
7,445,202
15,116,017

2027
42,824,739
13,194,788
29,629,951
7,500,000
22,129,951
1,240,646
23,370,597
7,712,297
15,658,300

2028
43,681,234
13,458,683
30,222,550
7,500,000
22,722,550
1,474,515
24,197,065
7,985,032
16,212,034

74,579,283
3,251,790
150,000,000
75,000,000
75,000,000
152,831,072

82,234,659
3,316,825
150,000,000
82,500,000
67,500,000
153,051,484

89,940,094
3,383,162
150,000,000
90,000,000
60,000,000
153,323,256

112,509,295
3,450,825
150,000,000
97,500,000
52,500,000
168,460,120

135,619,843
3,519,842
150,000,000
105,000,000
45,000,000
184,139,685

159,283,170
3,590,238
150,000,000
112,500,000
37,500,000
200,373,408

1,001,913
26,250,000
27,251,913

1,021,951
13,650,000
14,671,951

1,042,391
1,042,391

1,063,238
1,063,238

1,084,503
1,084,503

1,106,193
1,106,193

45,000,000
11,815,738
68,763,421
125,579,159

45,000,000
12,800,373
80,579,159
138,379,532

45,000,000
13,901,333
93,379,532
152,280,865

45,000,000
15,116,017
107,280,865
167,396,882

45,000,000
15,658,300
122,396,882
183,055,182

45,000,000
16,212,034
138,055,182
199,267,215

152,831,072

153,051,484

153,323,256

168,460,120

184,139,685

200,373,408

(0)

(0)

(0)

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2023
31,69
2%

2024
32,33
2%

2025
32,97
2%

2026
33,63
2%

2027
34,31
2%

2028
34,99
2%

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

39,563,439

40,354,708

41,161,802

41,985,038

42,824,739

43,681,234

2023
12,189,944
2%

2024
12,433,743
2%

2025
12,682,418
2%

2026
12,936,066
2%

2027
13,194,788
2%

2028
13,458,683
2%

2023

150,000,000
7,500,000
75,000,000
75,000,000
2023

2024

150,000,000
7,500,000
82,500,000
67,500,000
2024

2025

150,000,000
7,500,000
90,000,000
60,000,000
2025

36,750,000

26,250,000

13,650,000

10,500,000
26,250,000
2,940,000

12,600,000
13,650,000
2,100,000

13,650,000
1,092,000

10,00%

12,00%

13,00%

2026

150,000,000
7,500,000
97,500,000
52,500,000
2026

2027

150,000,000
7,500,000
105,000,000
45,000,000
2027

2028

150,000,000
7,500,000
112,500,000
37,500,000
2028

2023
3,251,790
30

2024
3,316,825
30

2025
3,383,162
30

2026
3,450,825
30

2027
3,519,842
30

2028
3,590,238
30

1,001,913
30

1,021,951
30

1,042,391
30

1,063,238
30

1,084,503
30

1,106,193
30

2023
19,873,495
6,558,253
13,315,242
7,500,000
20,815,242
44,115

2024
20,420,965
6,738,918
13,682,046
7,500,000
21,182,046
44,998

2025
20,979,384
6,923,197
14,056,187
7,500,000
21,556,187
45,897

2026
21,548,972
7,111,161
14,437,811
7,500,000
21,937,811
46,815

2027
22,129,951
7,302,884
14,827,067
7,500,000
22,327,067
47,752

2028
22,722,550
7,498,442
15,224,109
7,500,000
22,724,109
48,707

20,771,126
2,940,000

21,137,049
2,100,000

21,510,290
1,092,000

21,890,996
-

22,279,316
-

22,675,402
-

10,500,000

12,600,000

13,650,000

701,935
738,562
8,771,623
65,807,660
74,579,283

784,070
434,257
7,655,376
74,579,283
82,234,659

860,874
76,272
7,705,435
82,234,659
89,940,094

1,012,247
(334,041)
22,569,201
89,940,094
112,509,295

1,240,646
(409,413)
23,110,548
112,509,295
135,619,843

1,474,515
(486,590)
23,663,327
135,619,843
159,283,170

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

3,251,790
3,251,790

3,316,825
3,316,825

3,383,162
3,383,162

3,450,825
3,450,825

3,519,842
3,519,842

3,590,238
3,590,238

1,001,913
1,001,913

1,021,951
1,021,951

1,042,391
1,042,391

1,063,238
1,063,238

1,084,503
1,084,503

1,106,193
1,106,193

2,249,876
44,115

2,294,874
44,998

2,340,771
45,897

2,387,587
46,815

2,435,338
47,752

2,484,045
48,707

2023
20,771,126

2024
21,137,049

2025
21,510,290

2026
21,890,996

2027
22,279,316

2028
22,675,402

8,771,623

7,655,376

7,705,435

22,569,201

23,110,548

23,663,327

2023
21,509,688
13,440,000

2024
21,571,306
14,700,000

2025
21,586,562
14,742,000

1.6

1.5

1.5

2026

2027

2028

2029
44,554,858
13,727,857
30,827,001
7,500,000
23,327,001
1,713,971
25,040,972
8,263,521
16,777,451

2030
45,445,955
14,002,414
31,443,541
7,500,000
23,943,541
1,959,130
25,902,671
8,547,882
17,354,790

2031
46,354,875
14,282,462
32,072,412
7,500,000
24,572,412
2,210,114
26,782,526
8,838,233
17,944,292

2032
47,281,972
14,568,112
32,713,860
7,500,000
25,213,860
2,467,044
27,680,904
9,134,698
18,546,206

2033
48,227,611
14,859,474
33,368,138
7,500,000
25,868,138
2,730,046
28,598,184
9,437,401
19,160,783

183,510,940
3,662,043
150,000,000
120,000,000
30,000,000
217,172,983

208,315,056
3,735,284
150,000,000
127,500,000
22,500,000
234,550,340

233,707,660
3,809,990
150,000,000
135,000,000
15,000,000
252,517,649

259,701,144
3,886,189
150,000,000
142,500,000
7,500,000
271,087,333

286,308,151
3,963,913
150,000,000
150,000,000
290,272,064

1,128,317
1,128,317

1,150,883
1,150,883

1,173,901
1,173,901

1,197,379
1,197,379

1,221,327
1,221,327

45,000,000
16,777,451
154,267,215
216,044,666

45,000,000
17,354,790
171,044,666
233,399,456

45,000,000
17,944,292
188,399,456
251,343,748

45,000,000
18,546,206
206,343,748
269,889,954

45,000,000
19,160,783
224,889,954
289,050,738

217,172,983

234,550,340

252,517,649

271,087,333

290,272,064

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2%
5%

2029
35,69
2%

2030
36,41
2%

2031
37,13
2%

2032
37,88
2%

2033
38,63
2%

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

1,248,300

44,554,858

45,445,955

46,354,875

47,281,972

48,227,611

2029
13,727,857
2%

2030
14,002,414
2%

2031
14,282,462
2%

2032
14,568,112
2%

2033
14,859,474
2%

2029

150,000,000
7,500,000
120,000,000
30,000,000
2029

2030

150,000,000
7,500,000
127,500,000
22,500,000
2030

2031

150,000,000
7,500,000
135,000,000
15,000,000
2031

2032

150,000,000
7,500,000
142,500,000
7,500,000
2032

2033

150,000,000
7,500,000
150,000,000
2033

2029
3,662,043
30

2030
3,735,284
30

2031
3,809,990
30

2032
3,886,189
30

2033
3,963,913
30

1,128,317
30

1,150,883
30

1,173,901
30

1,197,379
30

1,221,327
30

2029
23,327,001
7,697,910
15,629,091
7,500,000
23,129,091
49,681

2030
23,943,541
7,901,369
16,042,173
7,500,000
23,542,173
50,675

2031
24,572,412
8,108,896
16,463,516
7,500,000
23,963,516
51,688

2032
25,213,860
8,320,574
16,893,286
7,500,000
24,393,286
52,722

2033
25,868,138
8,536,485
17,331,652
7,500,000
24,831,652
53,776

23,079,410
-

23,491,498
-

23,911,828
-

24,340,565
-

24,777,876
-

1,713,971
(565,610)
24,227,770
159,283,170
183,510,940

1,959,130
(646,513)
24,804,115
183,510,940
208,315,056

2,210,114
(729,337)
25,392,604
208,315,056
233,707,660

2,467,044
(814,125)
25,993,484
233,707,660
259,701,144

2,730,046
(900,915)
26,607,007
259,701,144
286,308,151

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

3,662,043
3,662,043

3,735,284
3,735,284

3,809,990
3,809,990

3,886,189
3,886,189

3,963,913
3,963,913

1,128,317
1,128,317

1,150,883
1,150,883

1,173,901
1,173,901

1,197,379
1,197,379

1,221,327
1,221,327

2,533,726
49,681

2,584,401
50,675

2,636,089
51,688

2,688,810
52,722

2,742,587
53,776

2029
23,079,410

2030
23,491,498

2031
23,911,828

2032
24,340,565

2033
24,777,876

24,227,770

24,804,115

25,392,604

25,993,484

26,607,007

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033